Expat Housing Review Легкий
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2016 EXPAT HOUSING REVIEW 2016: Review and Conclusions 2017 2017: Tendencies and Forecast M 2016 - MAIN TENDENCIES AND RESULTS Marina Semenova Managing Director & Shareholder "The past year confirmed stability on the prime residential rental market in Moscow, despite the uncertain economic conditions. The volume of vacant properties dropped significantly, and requests from new tenants increased by nearly one-quarter. Demand was a market reality, even for the most expensive listings valued at USD 11,000 pcm (per calendar month). The most striking trend was the strong activity of Russian nationals in this segment, compared to the previous periods." Key numbers of 2016 + 21% +7% –15% requests from potential of average rental rate prime rental stock tenants compared to requested per property, available compared to 2015 compared to the last year the start of the year ≈ 20% of all requests by potential tenants from France Average requested rental rate by Average offered budget by district, district, USD/listing pcm USD/listing pcm Leningradsky prospect Leningradsky prospect $3 870 +3% $3 970 Arbat-Kropotkinskaya Arbat-Kropotkinskaya $5 480 +21% $6 650 Tverskaya-Kremlin Tverskaya-Kremlin $4 630 +23% $5 700 Average demand in December Average supply in December for Moscow for Moscow +16% 4 350 $ / per month. 5 070 $ / per month. 1 www.intermarkrelocation.ru TENANT PROFILE During the whole year, the share of requests from potential foreign tenants increased, making up about 74% of the total requests. Prime rental apartments in the capital were particularly popular with French citizens, whose requests accounted for 20% of the total interest, followed by Russian nationals (about 16%). 74% 2016 26% 63% 2015 37% 66% International 2014 Russian/ 34% Assignee CIS The average age of potential tenants ranged from 35 to 49 years old, making up over half (51%) of all clients interested in the high-budget segment. The largest demand came from families with children (72%), looking for 2- and 3-bedroom apartments. 28% 2016 72% 38% 2015 62% 53% Single/Couples 2014 Families 47% without children with children Furnished VS. Unfurnished Furnished apartments are the most popular among tenants, accounting for nearly 90% of requests. A distinct feature of today’s tenants is the prerequisite demand for premises that are protected by security guards. 87% 2016 13% 87% 2015 13% 18% 82% Furnished 2014 Unfurnished 2 www.intermarkrelocation.ru SUPPLY The overall feature of 2016 on the high-budget rental market was the stable supply volume. The number of available listings fluctuated from -3% to +5% every month. Nevertheless, by the close of the year, there were 15% less vacant properties, testifying to growing liquidity of rental real estate. Furthermore, potential tenants are being offered better options, with high-quality decoration and furnishings. Chart 1.1 Dynamics of the supply of Moscow prime rental market (January 2015 – 100%) High-budget supply volume fell 15% between Jan. and Dec. 2016 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 2015 2016 Source: Intermark Relocation Top 5 districts for High-budget property listings for rent are concentrated in five supply in 2016 main districts: Arbat-Kropotkinskaya, Tverskaya–Kremlin, Arbat-Kropotkinskaya, Zamoskvorechye, Krasnopresnenskaya and Leningradsky Pros- Tverskaya–Kremlin, pect. Together, these areas account for about 61% of the total Zamoskvorechye, supply volume in this segment. Krasnopresnenskaya, Leningradsky Prospect 3 www.intermarkrelocation.ru Chart 1.2 Analysis of the most popular areas for living in Moscow in terms of supply Arbat-Kropotkinskaya 19%9% 2015 2016 Tverskaya-Kremlin 18% Zamoskvorechye 10% Krasnopresnenskaya 7% Leningradsky Prospect 7% Lubyanka-Kitay-Gorod 7% Leninsky Prospect 7% Tsvetnoy Boulevard 5% Patriarshie Prudy 5% Frunzenskaya 4% Kuntsevo 3% Kutuzovsky Prospect 2% Prospekt Mira 2% Other 2% Taganskaya 1% Source: Intermark Relocation The high-budget rental supply structure is organized in the following manner: 2- and 3-bedroom apart- ments are most common (32% and 24% respectively), followed by 1-bedroom (20%), 4+ bedrooms (16%) and studio apartments (8%). Chart 1.3 Supply analysis of expat housing in Moscow in terms of number of rooms Number of 2015 (%) Bedrooms 2014 (%) 2016 (%) Studio 1% 4% 8% 14% 14% 20% 38% 36% 32% 28% 27% 24% + 19% 20% 16% Source: Intermark Relocation 4 www.intermarkrelocation.ru DEMAND Between January and December 2016, demand from potential tenants was 21% higher than during the same period in 2015. Chart 2.1 Dynamics of the demand of Moscow prime rental market (January 2015 – 100%) Demand grew by nearly one-quarter in 2016 year-on-year 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 2015 2016 Source: Intermark Relocation Leningradsky Prospect was the most popular district for prime Top 5 districts for rentals in the Russian capital. Property in this area attracted 12% demand in 2016 of all client requests, followed by Arbat-Kropotkinskaya (11.5%). Leningradsky Prospect Tverskaya-Kremlin and Lubyanka-Kitai-Gorod tied for third Arbat-Kropotkinskaya place. Lubyanka-Kitai Gorod Tverskaya-Kremlin Zamoskvorechye In 2015, Leningradsky Prospect was also the most popular but held a larger margin over other districts, attracting nearly one-fifth of all client interest (18%). Tverskaya Street and Arbat Kropotkinskaya ranked second and third (17% and 12% respectively). 5 www.intermarkrelocation.ru Chart 2.2 Analysis of the most popular areas for living in Moscow in terms of demand Leningradsky Prospect attracted most tenant requests Leningradsky Prospect 12%2% 2015 2016 Arbat-Kropotkinskaya 12% Lubyanka-Kitay-Gorod 11% Tverskaya-Kremlin 11% Zamoskvorechye 9% Krasnopresnenskaya 7% Leninsky Prospect 7% Tsvetnoy Boulevard 5% Patriarshie Prudy 5% Kutuzovsky Prospect 4% Other 4% Taganskaya 4% Frunzenskaya 4% Kuntsevo 3% Prospekt Mira 3% Source: Intermark Relocation 1- and 2-bedroom prime rentals were in greatest demand last year, attracting nearly two-thirds of all requests. 3-bedroom properties (18%) and studios (10%) were less popular, as were more spacious options: 4+ bedroom flats (7%). Chart 2.3 Demand analysis of Moscow housing market in terms of number of rooms Number of 2014 (%) 2015 (%) 2016 (%) Bedrooms Studio 8% 14% 10% 24% 33% 30% 30% 30% 34% 24% 16% 18% + 14% 7% 7% Source: Intermark Relocation The prime rentals segment in Moscow was most popular with French and Russian citizens (approx. 20% and 16% of all requests respectively). 6 www.intermarkrelocation.ru RENTAL RATES AND BUDGETS In 2016, the average rental rate requested per property was USD 5,000 pcm, which is 7% higher than in 2015. Rental rates remained stable during the last quarter of 2016. Tenant budgets declined by 22% compared to the previous year, to USD 3,700 pcm on average per prop- erty. In December 2016, rental budgets reached their highest monthly average at USD 4,300 pcm, com- pared to just USD 3,000 pcm at their lowest in January. In holding with tradition, Arbat-Kropotkinskaya was the most expensive district with landlords requesting USD 6,500 pcm on average per property, followed by Krasnopresnenskaya (USD 5,740 pcm) and Tvers- kaya Street (USD 5,690 pcm). The most affordable district of the high-end rental property segment was Taganskaya, where average rental rates were just USD 1,940 pcm per property. Chart 3.1 Dynamics of the average budgets of supply and demand Supply Demand $7.000 $6.170 $6.500 $6.000 $5.500 $5.850 $5.000 $5.000 $4.500 $4.300 $4.600 $4.000 $4.160 $3.500 $3.000 $3.150 $2.500 $2.000 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 2015 2016 Source: Intermark Relocation Chart 3.2 Top 5 most expensive districts for prime rentals in 2016 1 Arbat-Kropotkinskaya 2 Krasnopresnenskaya $6.100 250 $10.000 200 $7.000 $9.000 $8.700 $6.000 200 $8.000 150 $7.000 $4.400 176 $5.000 $4.900 150 $6.000 ea, sq.m ea, sq.m $3.300 $4.000 r r 199 $5.000 100 $2.900 100 $4.000 110 $3.000 118 $3.000 50 $1.200 81 $2.000 50 $1.600 $2.000 76 $1.000 38 $1.000 40 average a average a 0 $0 0 $0 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom +4 Bedroom 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom +4 Bedroom 7 www.intermarkrelocation.ru 3 Tverskaya-Kremlin 4 Lubyanka-Kitay-Gorod $6.100 200 $7.000 250 $7.300 $8.000 $6.000 $7.000 150 200 $6.000 $4.400 176 $5.000 150 $5.000 ea, sq.m ea, sq.m $3.300 $4.000 $3.500 r r 208 100 $2.700 $4.000 $3.000 110 100 111 $3.000 50 $1.200 81 $2.000 $1.200 $2.000 50 73 $1.000 $1.000 41 40 average a average a 0 $0 0 $0 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom +4 Bedroom 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom +4 Bedroom 5 Tsvetnoy Boulevard and Patriarshie Prudy $7.000 $6.600 $7.000 200 $6.000 180 180 $6.000 160 $6.000 160 140 $4.600 176 $5.000 $3.700 159 $5.000 140 120 120 ea, sq.m $2.600 ea, sq.m $2.800 $4.000 100 $4.000 r r 100 80 80 $3.000 101 $3.000 121 60 60 $1.200 88 $2.000 $1.200 $2.000 40 40 74 $1.000 $1.000 20 20 45 37 average a average a 0 $0 0 $0 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom +4 Bedroom 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom +4 Bedroom Chart 3.3 Analysis of average asking prices/Number of bedroom/Class Arbat/Kropotkinskaya, Patriarshy Ponds, Close to International schools Area Tverskaya, Lubyanka/Kitay-Gorod, Zamoskvorechie (Leningrasky prospect, Kuntsevo) Elite class+ Elite class+ Premium class Business class Premium class Business class Description (unique (unique properties) properties) 1 bedroom $1300–$2000 $1500–$2500 n\a n\a 2 bedroom $1600–$2500 $3000–$8000 $1000–$2000 $1000–$4000 3 bedroom $2500–$3500 $4000–$7000 $1500–$2500 $4000–$10000 4 bedroom $3000–$4500 $7000–$8000 $2500–$3500 $7000–$13000 5+ bedroom $5000-$10000 $10000–$15000 n\a $10000-$17000 Source: Intermark Relocation Apartments in pre-revolutionary, Stalin-period or ministerial buildings.