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Real Estate Monitor 4/2016 4/2016 REAL ESTATE MONITOR Magazine of the Association of European Businesses CAPITAL · OFFICE · RETAIL · WAREHOUSE · HOSPITALITY · HOUSING Contents Contents Introduction Letter from the Chief Executive Officer 01 Letter from the Chairman of the AEB Real Estate Committee 02 Moscow market overview Capital market 03 Retail market 05 Street-retail market 08 Office market 10 Warehouse market 13 Hospitality market 16 Housing market 20 St. Petersburg market overview Office market 22 Retail market 23 Street-retail market 24 Warehouse market 25 Hot Topics Investor-initiated integrated site development: new opportunities 26 Recent updates on the mortgage market 29 Another way to gain a return on investment in building engineering systems automation 32 AEB Real Estate Monitor | 4/2016 Dear reader, The AEB Real Estate Committee keeps up-to-date with the situation in the Russian real estate market and provides you with in-depth information about all significant developments. Focusing on Moscow and St. Petersburg, this issue will cover the retail, industrial, office markets in terms of rates and yields, and will acquaint you with the latest trends and tendencies. Frank Schauff It is my hope that you will find this publication a useful resource, and that it will open Chief Executive Officer, new horizons for your business. I look forward to seeing many of you at our upcoming Association of European Real Estate Committee events. Businesses I would like to take this opportunity to thank our Real Estate Committee members who have actively contributed to this publication and the other activities of the Committee. On this note, I wish each and every one of you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year! AEB Real Estate Monitor | 4/2016 1 AEB Real Estate Monitor | 4/2016 Introduction Dear readers, Soon it will be time to compile the results for 2016, and compare the forecasts to the facts on the ground. So far we have seen a stagnation in real estate proceeds, but the market is still active. Real estate players have shown their intrinsic capability to adapt to the situation and turn the negative markets trends into the new normal, demonstrating how real talent Filippo Baldisserotto can overturn poor odds. The market has seen price level changes, new construction Chairman of the AEB Real volumes and varying approaches to changing consumer behavior. In any case we are Estate Committee, glad to see that our sector is moving forward and getting stronger during these times General Director, of change. Stupino 1 Industrial Park The Real Estate Committee will hold a couple more events this year and it will be our pleasure to welcome our members and all those who are interested in attending or actively contributing. We wish all of you a Merry Christmas and prosperous New Year, and confirm the Real Estate Committee’s intention to make the upcoming year even more informative and interesting. Thank you all and we looking forward to seeing you at the upcoming Real Estate Committee meetings and events. 2 AEB Real Estate Monitor | 4/2016 Moscow market overview | Capital market AEB Real Estate Monitor | 4/2016 Russian Investment Market | Q3 2016 Russian Investment Market | Q3 2016 Russian Investment Market | Q3 2016 RussianRussianMoscow Investment Investment market overview MarketMarketRussianCapital market, Investment Q3 2016 Market• The Russian economy showed signs of improvement. The • Investors continued to focus on assets in Moscow, where rouble remained relatively stable, with a slight appreciation 88% of all deals were closed in Q1–Q3 2016 and 94% • The Russian economy shows signs of improvement. Rouble remains relatively • Investors continued to focus on assets in Moscow, where 88% of all deals bias; oil prices recovered; financial markets posted gains; in Q3 2016. Investments in the St. Petersburg real estate • The Russianstable, economy with a slightshows appreciation signs of improvement. bias; oil prices Rouble have remains recovered; relatively financial • wereInvestors closed continued in Q1-Q3 to 2016 focus and on 94% assets in Q3in Moscow,2016. Investments where 88% in theof allSt. deals stable, withmarketsinflation a slight post gains;appreciationslowed inflation down. bias;is slowing oilThese down.prices changes These have changes recovered; create create financialthe a basis basis for for weremarketPetersburg closed reached real in estateQ1-Q3 marketUSD 2016 156reached and million94% USD156mn in Q3compared 2016.vs USD61m Investments to a USDyear ago. 61in themil St.- the• The economy Russian to economyenter the showsgrowth signsphase of in improvement. the next few quarters.Rouble remains relatively • Investors continued to focus on assets in Moscow, where 88% of all deals markets postthe gains; economy inflation isto slowing enter down. the Thesegrowth changes phase create in athe basis next for few Petersburglion• Russian a year investors real ago.estate dominated market in reached Q1-Q3 2016; USD156mn they have vs accounted USD61m for a 95%year ofago. stable, with a slight appreciation bias; oil prices have recovered; financial were closed in Q1-Q3 2016 and 94% in Q3 2016. Investments in the St. the economy• Better to enter activity the was growth also recorded phase in in the the nextreal estate few quarters. investment sector. In Q1-Q3 deals in Q1-Q3 2016, which is the highest level for the Russian market. quarters.markets post gains; inflation is slowing down. These changes create a basis for • Russian•Petersburg Russian investors real investors estate dominated market dominated reachedin Q1-Q3 USD156mn 2016; in theyQ1–Q3 vs have USD61m accounted2016; a year they ago. for 95% ac- of 2016, the Russia real estate investment volume increased by 76% YoY and • Better activitythe economy was also to recorded enter the ingrowth the real phase estate in the investment next few quarters. sector. In Q1-Q3 deals• We inforecast Q1-Q3 the 2016, investment which volume is the highestto approach level USD4.0bn for the Russian this year, market. although reached• High USD3bn. levels of activity were also recorded in the real estate counted• Russian investorsfor 95% dominated of deals in Q1-Q3 in 2016; Q1–Q3 they have 2016, accounted which for 95% is ofthe 2016, the Russia real estate investment volume increased by 76% YoY and acknowledge some downside risks to this forecast. Nevertheless, a pick up in • Better activity was also recorded in the real estate investment sector. In Q1-Q3 • Wedeals forecast in Q1-Q3 the 2016,investment which isvolume the highest to approach level for USD4.0bnthe Russian thismarket. year, although reached USD3bn.•investmentPrime yields remained sector. unchanged In Q1–Q3 in Q3 2016, 2016 atreal 10.5% estate and 10.75%investment for highestactivity and level ongoing for thenegotiations Russian on market. several deals indicate a clear 2016, the Russia real estate investment volume increased by 76% YoY and Moscow offices and shopping centres respectively, and 12.0% for warehouses. acknowledgeimprovement• We forecast someafter the investmentsubdued downside 2015. volume risks toto approachthis forecast. USD4.0bn Nevertheless, this year, although a pick up in inreached Russia USD3bn. increased by 76% YoY and reached USD 3 billion. • We forecast that investment will approach USD 4 billion • Prime yields remained unchanged in Q3 2016 at 10.5% and 10.75% for activityacknowledge and ongoing some downside negotiations risks to thison forecast. several Nevertheless, deals indicate a pick upa inclear • Investors were traditionally more active in the office segment that accounted Moscow offices• PrimePrime and yields shopping yields remained remainedcentres unchanged respectively, unchanged in Q3 and 2016 12.0% inat 10.5%Q3 for warehouses.2016 and 10.75% at 10.5% for improvementthisactivity year, and after althoughongoing subdued negotiations we 2015. acknowledge on several thatdeals thereindicate are a downclear - for 63% of the total investment volume in Q1-Q3 2016. • Investors andMoscowwere 10.75%traditionally offices and for moreshopping Moscow active centres in officesthe respectively, office segmentand and shopping 12.0% that foraccounted warehouses. centres re- sideimprovement risks toafter this subdued forecast. 2015. Nevertheless, the pickup in ac- for 63% of spectively,the• Investors total investment were and traditionally 12.0%volume more in for Q1-Q3 active warehouses. 2016.in the office segment that accounted tivity and ongoing negotiations on several deals indicate a for 63% of the total investment volume in Q1-Q3 2016. • Investors were more active in the office segment, and clear improvement after the subdued 2015. (1–9 ) this accounted for 63% of the total investment in Q1–Q3 12016.RUSSIA REAL GDP GROWTH 2 SOVEREIGN DEBT YIELDS RUSSIA1 RUSSIARUSSIA REAL REALREAL GDP GDP GDPGROWTH GROWTH GROWTH SOVEREIGN2SOVEREIGN SOVEREIGN DEBT DEBTDEBT YIELDS YIELDSYIELDS 1 9%1 22 9% Russia 23 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 6% 7% 9% 3%9% 9%9% RussiaRussia 23 23 5% U.S.U.S. 10 10Year Year Treasury Treasury 0%6% 6% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 7%7% 3% 3% -3%3% -0.8 5%5% -6%0% 1% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 3% -9%-3% 3% -3% -0.8 Jan. 2014 May 2014 Sep. 2014 Jan. 2015 May 2015 Sep. 2015 Jan. 2016 May 2016 Sep. 2016 -0.8 1% -6% Source: Rosstat, Oxford Economics Source: Bloomberg -6% 1% -9% -9% Jan. 2014 May 2014 Sep. 2014 Jan. 2015 May 2015 Sep. 2015 Jan. 2016 May 2016 Sep. 2016 Source: Rosstat, Oxford Economics Jan. 2014 Source: BloombergMay 2014 Sep. 2014 Jan. 2015 May 2015 Sep. 2015 Jan. 2016 May 2016 Sep. 2016 Source:Source: Rosstat, Rosstat,Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Source:Source: Bloomberg Bloomberg EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS, RUB/USD 33 EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS, RUB/USD 390 EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS, RUB/USD 3 EXCHANGE80 RATE DYNAMICS, RUB/USD 90 70 90 80 60 80 70 50 60 70 40 50 Jul.
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