LETTER FROM HEADQUARTERS
THE AMS POSITIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADVOCACY
was recently reviewing some of the results of the understanding the policy options available for address- survey of AMS members that was completed about ing climate change (what they are and the advantages I a year ago, reading through the narrative responses and disadvantages of each). Those activities focus on to questions about things people liked and did not informing policy options—not advocating particular like about AMS.1 I was somewhat disheartened that courses of action—and take advantage of the expertise some of the responses showed a misunderstanding in the science that our community brings to the table. and mischaracterization of the Society’s approach to In terms of advocacy, the Society takes a very careful science and to policy engagement, especially in the approach to its interaction with government agencies area of climate change. Those responses suggested and Capitol Hill that is quite different from the more a perception that AMS is no longer focused on sci- traditional forms of advocacy and lobbying seen in other ence and, instead, that it has become an advocacy or organizations. I described those differences, which take lobbying organization pushing a specific agenda with advantage of the strong scientific expertise the Society respect to climate change. The actual number of such brings to issues and results in AMS being viewed as a responses was small (a little over a dozen specific trusted source of information, a little over a year ago in comments out of 96 pages of narrative responses), so this column (see the July 2014 BAMS, pa ge s 110 5 –110 6). the data suggest this is far from the majority opinion, As I noted then, the approach taken by AMS has been but similar comments arise from time to time in other very successful in bringing the science of our commu- contexts, so I thought it worth addressing again here. nity to bear on appropriate policy issues across a wide The Society’s contribution to the science of climate range of topics that include, but are far from limited to, change has been and continues to be enormous. Much climate change. To be sure, I also noticed in the survey of the cutting-edge climate science research is published responses a number that urged AMS to become more in AMS journals and presented at AMS scientific con- active in advocacy. Some of those respondents may also ferences. The AMS position on climate change, based not be aware of the careful approach taken on these on comprehensive scientific assessment and an open issues and the effectiveness of that approach. process that included broad input from the community, As I mentioned at the outset of the column, I am is expressed in a statement released by the Council disheartened anytime there is misunderstanding of the in 2012 (see: www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm careful and critical role the Society plays in the advance /about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams of the science and its beneficial use. I would be very -in-force/climate-change/). The Statement on Climate happy to discuss these issues, or any other ones, with Change recognizes that AMS not only supports the anyone who has concerns about AMS positions or advance of scientific understanding, but also promotes activities. Please feel free to e-mail me at kseitter@ the use of scientific understanding in societal decision ametsoc.org or call me on my direct line at 617-226-3901. making. AMS activities include initiatives that focus on
1 A group of volunteers is currently analyzing the complete set of AMS Member Survey responses and preparing that Keith L. Seitter, CCM analysis for release in BAMS in the near future. Executive Director
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NOVEMBER 2015 | 1979 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/24/21 06:34 PM UTC ABOUT OUR MEMBERS
Justin McLay, research meteorologist at the U.S. level NAVGEM EFS. Providing detailed knowledge Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Marine Meteo- of future extreme weather variability and conditions rology Division, received the Laboratory Scientist of (wind speeds, wave heights, air and sea temperatures, the Quarter award honoring extraordinary service to sea ice thickness and extent, and sea level), the en- the Department of Defense (DoD). McLay was given semble will enable the U.S. Navy and DoD to adapt the award for his distinguished accomplishments in to future environmental impacts. leading the “New Rules of Predictability” project and Beginning his career in weather science as a his key role in developing and transitioning the Navy certified weather observer for the National Weather Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) Ensemble Service, McLay worked to obtain a doctorate in Forecast System (EFS). atmospheric science from the University of Wis- McLay is a subject-matter expert in the design and consin—Madison, where he had received both a application of atmospheric ensemble predictions, and bachelor’s and master’s degree in atmospheric sci- works on the 6.1 level predictability project and 6.4 ence, in 1997 and 2001, respectively. After receiving
ON-AIR METEOROLOGY 10 QUESTIONS WITH . . . A new series of profiles celebrating AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologists and Sealholders
Janice Dean Fox News Senior Meteorologist
When did you know you wanted to become a meteorologist/broadcaster? I studied journalism and radio/television broadcasting in college back home in Canada, but my interest in weather goes back to my childhood when we had snow piled up to our rooftops during the big Canadian winters. I went on to be a local weather presenter right out of college on the CBC while I was a radio host. Back then, you could do the weather without having the meteorology background. When I was hired at Fox to be their daytime weather person, I decided it was time to go back to school and study the science while working full time.
What do you think the next “big thing” is in weather reporting? Social media is definitely bringing us close to the story in terms of getting real-time pictures and reports. I get a little upset when people put themselves into harm’s way to get pictures of tornadoes or extreme weather events (including meteorologists!). I’m probably one of the only broadcast meteorologists who does NOT like to report outside during big weather events. I find it ridiculous to be telling people to stay safe while holding onto a tree or sign post.
How often are you recognized in public? Rarely! We have the best hair and makeup team in the business here at Fox. They are magicians. I come to work with no makeup on with my hair in a ponytail and that’s how I leave work. Plus, living in New York, even if people do recognize you, they don’t have time to stop and chat. Everyone is on the move.
What is the best thing about what you do? I work at an amazing place with wonderful people, which makes it a joy to come into work. Plus, my kids love to come visit me and play on the green screen. I also love going to visit schools and reading my Freddy the Frogcaster books to them. Seeing children talk about weather is fantastic. It’s the one thing that every single person experiences. It brings us all together.
1980 | NOVEMBER 2015 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/24/21 06:34 PM UTC his Ph.D. in 2004, he was granted a postdoctoral McLay has authored or coauthored 17 journal appointment within the National Research Council publications and has led 9 successful technical tran- (NRC) for a position at NRL-Monterey in the Global sitions for the U.S. Navy’s NAVGEM global EPS. In Modeling Section of the Atmospheric Dynamics and April 2015, he received the Alan Berman Annual Prediction Branch. Research Publication Award for a study of statistical In 2007, McLay started his federal career at NRL- inference applied to model parameter uncertainty. Monterey and progressed to improve the design of the He is currently associate editor for Monthly Weather now retired Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Review and a member of the AMS Weather Analysis Prediction System EFS through the implementation and Forecasting Committee. McLay has presented of locally banded ensemble transform perturbations his research at numerous conferences and work- of the initial state. In March 2015, he led the transition shops, including as an invited speaker on the topic of the U.S. Navy’s first operational method for sto- of forecast time series behavior at the Developmental chastic forcing of the NAVGEM global model, which Testbed Center, National Center for Atmospheric improves the measurement of forecast uncertainty. Research.
ON-AIR METEOROLOGY
How would you define the value of the AMS seal programs? I feel very fortunate to have received my AMS Seal and enjoy getting together with fellow broadcast meteorologists to talk about the business and the future of weather. AMS has been very supportive of my career, my children’s books, and opportunities within the community.
What’s the biggest weather event you’ve reported on? Hurricane Sandy was a huge event for us in the Northeast, but I have to say Hurricane Katrina was the biggest weather event I’ve ever forecasted or witnessed. I remember reading that “doomsday statement” saying this would be the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. I read that warning on-air in front of the green screen while the satellite of the storm swirled behind me and just had this overwhelming feeling of dread. And then I remember the next day when we all thought New Orleans had dodged a bullet…and then the levees broke.
What weather myths do you hear the most? I absolutely can’t stand seeing videos of people putting masking tape or electrical tape on their windows as preparation for a hurricane! This is a total waste of time. The windows are still going to break, and the pieces of glass are going to be larger and more dangerous than the smaller little pieces that get shattered. It’s better to board up windows. Also, the myth that you should crack open windows to stabilized pressure during hurricanes or tornadoes. The last thing you should be doing is opening your windows during violent wind storms.
What is the strangest/most interesting question you’ve received as a broadcaster? When I was preg- nant, I got an e-mail from someone saying, “When is your baby due?” They couldn’t wait for my belly to disappear from the weather map so they could see their hometown that was hidden for nine months.
What‘s been your most difficult moment on-air? It’s the moments when we see massive destruction or hear stories about someone being killed by a severe weather event that are difficult. There have been a few times where I’ve been moved to tears on television by a visual or a family member or friend talking about losing a loved one due to an extreme weather situation.
Who is your dream mentor? I don’t really have a dream mentor. I’ve always had great real-life mentors like teachers, coworkers, or bosses that have taught me things or given me great advice. I would love to meet Bill Murray one day since I thought he was a genius in Groundhog Day.
Janice Dean received the AMS Seal of Approval in 2009. For more information on AMS Certification Programs, go to www.ametsoc.org/amscert/index.html.
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NOVEMBER 2015 | 1981 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/24/21 06:34 PM UTC Ronald E. Stewart has received the Patterson Dis- • Peter A. Troch, University of Arizona tinguished Service Medal for his contributions to • Robert W. Carlson, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Canadian meteorology and his exceptional scientific • Sarah T. Gille, University of California, San Diego leadership. The Patterson Distinguished Service Med- • Robert Pinkel, University of California, San Diego al, presented since 1954, is considered the preeminent • Jose-Luis Jimenez, University of Colorado Boulder award recognizing outstanding work in meteorology • Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, NCAR by residents of Canada. • William J. Randel, NCAR Stewart is a professor in the Department of • Michael J. Thompson, UCAR Environment and Geography at the University of • Allan J. Clarke, Florida State University Manitoba. He is a leading expert on winter and • Axel Timmermann, University of Hawaii summer storms, associated precipitation, and • Praveen Kumar, University of Illinois at Urbana- weather and regional climate extremes. He has led Champaign numerous Canadian and international research • Lorraine A. Remer, University of Maryland, activities addressing the important aspects of me- Baltimore County teorology, and has conducted research projects— • Amitava Bhattacharjee, Princeton University often involving detailed field measurements—of • Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute precipitation and related weather conditions all for Space Studies across Canada. • Larry D. Travis, NASA Goddard Institute for Stewart’s influence on meteorology is also Space Studies reflected in his more than 126 scientific papers, • Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University and he has recently published articles on weather/ • Christopher S. Bretherton, University of climate phenomena over every region of Canada, Washington including all the surrounding oceans. He has been • Alex B. Guenther, Pacific Northwest National on numerous scientific committees and societies Laboratory and served as president of the Canadian Meteoro- • Philip J. Rasch, Pacific Northwest National logical and Oceanographic Society. He is a member Laboratory of the Changing Cold Regions Network, the World • Daniel Rosenfeld, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Climate Research Program task team on extremes, • Martin Visbeck, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for and the Canadian National Roundtable on Disaster Ocean Research Kiel Risk Reduction. The AGU has also announced its 2015 medalists, awardees, and prize recipients. These individuals The American Geophysical Union (AGU) an- are recognized for their breakthrough achieve- nounced its 2015 class of Fellows. This honor is ments in advancing Earth and space science and given to individual AGU members who have made their outstanding contributions and service to exceptional scientific contributions and attained the scientific community. Their passion, vision, acknowledged eminence in the fields of Earth and creativity, and leadership have expanded scientific space sciences. Since the establishment of the AGU understanding, illuminated new research direc- Fellows program in 1962, and in accordance with tions, and made Earth and space science thrilling, AGU bylaws, no more than 0.1% of the total mem- immediate, and relevant to audiences beyond as bership of AGU is recognized well as within the scientific annually. community. The honorees will The following AMS mem- IN MEMORIAM be recognized during the Hon- bers have been elected as 2015 HAROLD NAGEL ors Tribute at the 2015 AGU Fellows and will be recognized 1932–2015 Fall Meeting. The following during a ceremony held during RAY PARSONS AMS members were among the the 2015 AGU Fall Meeting in 1931–2015 2015 recipients: LAURENT PRIMEAU San Francisco: 1924–2015 William Bowie Medal— HARRY VOLKMAN • • Jonathan T. Overpeck, Uni- 1926–2015 Wilfried H. Brutsaert, Cornell versity of Arizona University
1982 | NOVEMBER 2015 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/24/21 06:34 PM UTC • James B. Macelwane Medal—Colette L. Heald, • International Award—Peter John Webster, Geor- Massachusetts Institute of Technology gia Institute of Technology • Maurice Ewing Medal—Russ E. Davis, Scripps • Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement Institution of Oceanography in Science Journalism—Andrew Revkin, The New • Roger Revelle Medal—Anne M. Thompson, NASA York Times Goddard Space Flight Center • David Perlman Award for Excellence in Science • Ambassador Award—Gordon McBean, University Journalism—News Award—Sandi Doughton, The of Western Ontario Seattle Times • Charles S. Falkenberg Award—Benjamin L. Pres- • Climate Communications Prize—Richard C. J. ton, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
LIVING ON THE REAL WORLD
[Editor’s Note: The following post is adapted from William Hooke’s blog, Living on the Real World (www.livingon- therealworld.org/). Hooke is the former director of the AMS Policy Program and currently a senior policy fellow.]
Remembering Katrina (and the Human Statistics such as these impoverish the respective Condition) discussions. It is the individual deaths that consecrate Originally posted on August 30, 2015 the events. Abraham Lincoln famously captured this These past weeks, you’ve likely found yourself point in his Gettysburg address, saying about that struggling to stay afloat in a storm surge of ten- Civil War battlefield: year Hurricane Katrina remembrance. News/social media outlets have been awash with reflections on …we can not dedicate, we can not consecrate, we the 2005 storm itself, which killed 1,000–2,000 can not hallow this ground. The brave men, living people (yes, the range of estimates is that great), and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, and inflicted $100B of losses in the form of prop- far above our poor power to add or detract. The erty damage and business disruption. Media cover- world will little note, nor long remember what we age has explored the subsequent enhancements to say here, but it can never forget what they did here. flood-protection infrastructure; recent improve- It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to ments in weather- and storm-surge warnings; the the unfinished work which they who fought here progress of the recovery with respect to housing, have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us demographics, poverty, education, the economy to be here dedicated to the great task remaining of the region, and the lives of individual survivors before us—that from these honored dead we take (those who have since returned and those perma- increased devotion to that cause for which they nently displaced); and much more. No aspect has gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here gone ignored. The narratives have been poignant highly resolve that these dead shall not have died and gripping. in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a The Katrina retrospectives come on top of a new birth of freedom—and that government of the worldwide tide of recollection. This past month people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish has also marked the 70th anniversary of the end of from the earth. World War II, including the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which killed tens of thousands, and Some might wonder, or even take umbrage, brought a close to a decade of conflict which saw with the idea of lumping together those who died 50–80 million deaths (50%–70% civilian), some from so-called natural disasters with those who 3% of the world’s population of the time. And, died heroically in war, but the reality is that there’s these days, each week calls to mind centennial no clear dividing line between the two groups. reminiscence of particular World War I events, Many who have died in combat were drawn in by which killed another 15–20 million people over degrees—through accident of birth and position the period 1914–1918. and a series of small decisions and a process of
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY NOVEMBER 2015 | 1983 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/24/21 06:34 PM UTC acquiescence—rather than making any dramatic, CERTIFIED BROADCAST conscious decision to sacrifice their lives for others METEOROLOGISTS (CBM) or for a cause. And many who die from so-called natural hazards find much the same thing—that it The following individuals were recently was the last climactic consequence of the poverty granted the Certified Broadcast Meteorolo- and associated assumption of risk imposed on them gist (CBM) designation. For more informa- by life’s circumstances and the actions and failures tion on the AMS CBM program, go to www .ametsoc.org/amscert/index.html#cbm. of others as much as any personal shortsightedness of their own making. They had, in effect, been in 681 Eric Burke 2015 a war all along. 682 Alyssa Caroprese 2015 Back then, Lincoln noted that there was (and 683 Caitlin Roth 2015 is) only one decent way for the living to respond: 684 Michael Page 2015 through renewed and enlarged determination, to 685 Tyler Eliasen 2015 avoid any repetition of the tragedies of wars and 686 Jacqueline Charles 2015 natural disasters. 687 Eric Stone 2015 688 Brittany Bell 2015 As we look around, we see evidence that we’re do- 689 Jennifer Constantine 2015 ing a far better job of remembrance than such rededi- 690 William J. Karins 2015 cation. Media coverage on Katrina and its aftermath 691 Thomas Meiners 2015 has been thorough and eloquent. Katrina recovery 692 Monica Tassoni 2015 efforts—still underway, and likely to be needed for 693 Richard Katzfey 2015 yet another decade—on occasion provide reasons 694 Bryan Bennett 2015 for cheer. But New Orleans hasn’t seen the back of 695 Jessica Quick 2015 696 Heather Waldman 2015 the hurricane threat. Those risks are ongoing—if 697 Lindsey Anderson 2015 anything, growing. That is even more true of the hur- 698 Mackenzie Morris 2015 ricane threat to the United States more generally, and truer still of the broader risk exposure—to floods and drought; sea-level rise; earthquakes and volcanism; be profoundly satisfying. Ask any emergency man- pandemic; acts of terror; and cyber-vulnerabilities. ager, or NOAA National Weather Service forecaster, Disasters, like snowflakes, are all different. Each or anyone working toward a weather ready-nation day we draw 24 hours closer to a diverse range of or emergency healthcare or business continuity; catastrophes that we’ll then add to our growing calls they’ll tell you. to remembrance. But this doesn’t have to be a spectator sport for Often it feels that we’re sleepwalking into this the rest of us. We actively build societal resilience problematic future. But there’s good news buried in whenever and however we work to create a more this reality. First, not all future disaster scenarios are equitable and just society, to provide health care to hidden from us. Thanks to advances in the geosci- all, to enhance public education, to create meaningful ences and social sciences we know where many of jobs, to protect habitat and the environment. the vulnerabilities and risks lie. What’s more, we And at the core, it’s about values. As we respect don’t have to “guess exactly right” when it comes others, love each other, make opportunity for ac- to the next disaster. We can take many measures tion and participation available to all, both locally now to build a generalized resilience to those future and nationally—in short, as we respond to Lincoln’s events, whatever precise form they may take (much age-old call for a new birth of freedom—we’ll find as our immune system provides continuing protec- community-level resilience to hazards arises as a tion against infections we’ve survived, and as an cobenefit. (By contrast, attempt to build hazards resil- autumn flu shot provides added protection not just ience while refusing to address or even acknowledge to the few strains in the serum but to a broader class the challenges posed by basic human values, and we’ll of viruses). What’s more, to enlist in and prosecute likely fail at both.) the effort to build societal resilience to hazards can Are you in?
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