VOL. 99 NO. 1 JAN 2018 Geologic Map of Europa How Will Climate Change A ect the United States? Tracking River Flows from Space BRIDGING BETWEEN DATA AND SCIENCE 2018 HONORS Recognize a colleague, mentor, peer or student for their achievements and contributions to the Earth and space sciences. • Union Medals • Union Fellowship • Union Prizes • Union Awards • Sections Awards and Lectures Nominations Open 15 January honors.agu.org Earth & Space Science News Contents JANUARY 2018 FEATURE VOLUME 99, ISSUE 1 18 How Will Climate Change Affect the United States in Decades to Come? A new U.S. government report shows that climate is changing and that human activities will lead to many more changes. These changes will affect sea levels, hurricane frequency, wildfires, and more. PROJECT UPDATE 32 Tracking River Flows from Space Satellite observations, combined with algorithms borrowed from river engineering, could fill large gaps in our knowledge of global river flows where field 24 data are lacking. OPINION COVER To Understand Future 12 Solar Activity, One Has Giovanni: The Bridge Between to Know the Past Short-term funding strategies present Data and Science serious problems for programs like solar A Web-​­based tool provides a way to access, visualize, and explore many of NASA’s activity studies, where observations and Earth science data sets. analysis span decades or longer. Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 1 Contents DEPARTMENTS Editor in Chief Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ [email protected] Editors Christina M. S. Cohen Wendy S. Gordon Carol A. Stein California Institute Ecologia Consulting, Department of Earth and of Technology, Pasadena, Austin, Texas, USA; Environmental Sciences, Calif., USA; wendy@ecologiaconsulting University of Illinois at cohen@srl .caltech.edu .com Chicago, Chicago, Ill., José D. Fuentes David Halpern USA; [email protected] Department of Meteorology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pennsylvania State Pasadena, Calif., USA; University, University davidhalpern29@gmail Park, Pa., USA; .com [email protected] Editorial Advisory Board Mark G. Flanner, Atmospheric Sciences John W. Lane, Near-Surface Geophysics Nicola J. Fox, Space Physics Jian Lin, Tectonophysics and Aeronomy Figen Mekik, Paleoceanography Peter Fox, Earth and Space Science and Paleoclimatology Informatics Jerry L. Miller, Ocean Sciences Steve Frolking, Biogeosciences Thomas H. Painter, Cryosphere Sciences 45 Edward J. Garnero, Study of the Philip J. Rasch, Global Environmental Earth’s Deep Interior Change Michael N. Gooseff, Hydrology Eric M. Riggs, Education Brian C. Gunter, Geodesy Adrian Tuck, Nonlinear Geophysics 12–16 Opinions Kristine C. Harper, History of Geophysics Sergio Vinciguerra, Mineral Sarah M. Hörst, Planetary Sciences and Rock Physics To Understand Future Solar Activity, Susan E. Hough, Natural Hazards Andrew C. Wilcox, Earth and Planetary Emily R. Johnson, Volcanology, Surface Processes One Has to Know the Past; Taking the Geochemistry, and Petrology Earle Williams, Atmospheric Pulse of the Planet. Keith D. Koper, Seismology and Space Electricity Robert E. Kopp, Geomagnetism Mary Lou Zoback, Societal Impacts and Paleomagnetism and Policy Sciences 37–44 AGU News Staff Medalists Honored at 2017 AGU Fall Production and Design: Faith A. Ishii, Production Manager; Melissa A. Tribur, Senior Production Specialist; Elizabeth Thompson, Production Assistant; Beth Bagley, Meeting. Manager, Design and Branding; Travis Frazier and Valerie Friedman, Senior Graphic Designers 45–46 Research Spotlight Editorial: Peter L. Weiss, Manager/Senior News Editor; Mohi Kumar, Scientific Content Editor; Randy Showstack, Senior News Writer; JoAnna Wendel, News Writer; The River Basin’s Tale: Carbon Liz Castenson, Editorial and Production Coordinator; Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News 6 Writing and Production Intern Transport Along the Thames; Ocean Marketing: Jamie R. Liu, Manager, Marketing; Angelo Bouselli and Taryn Hudson, Dynamics May Drive North Atlantic Marketing Program Managers; Ashwini Yelamanchili, Digital Marketing Coordinator 3–9 News Temperature Anomalies; NASA Fleet Advertising: Tracy LaMondue, Director, Development; Tel: +1-202-777-7372; Helps Predict Space Weather. Email: [email protected] U.S. Weather Alert Systems Must Modernize, Say New ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is Reports; Experts Wonder Why 47–52 Positions Available also granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books Administration Released Tough Current job openings in the Earth and journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office. Climate Report; Signatures of and space sciences. Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by the American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid Dinosaur Poop Found in Cretaceous at Washington, D. C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address Coal Seams; Pollution over Inside Back Cover: changes to Member Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, Southeast Asia May Threaten USA. Ozone Health; Map Provides Postcards from the Field Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; Fax: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; Email: [email protected]. High-Resolution Look at Nearly A scientist peers out of the viewport Use AGU’s Geophysical Electronic Manuscript Submissions system to submit a Entire Arctic Region; Geologic Map of the DSV Alvin, some 2,650 meters manuscript: http://eos-submit.agu.org. of Europa Highlights Targets for below sea level. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect official Future Exploration. positions of the American Geophysical Union unless expressly stated. On the Cover Christine W. McEntee, Executive Director/CEO 10–11 Meeting Reports Map of March aerosol optical density Understanding a Changing West over Africa, averaged from 2003 Antarctic Peninsula; Early-Career to 2016, generated using NASA’s Scientists Discuss Paleoscience, Giovanni data portal. Credit: Future Challenges. Giovanni AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos company/american-geophysical-union AGUvideos americangeophysicalunion americangeophysicalunion 2 // Eos January 2018 NEWS year in weather-related vehicle crashes on U.S. Weather Alert Systems U.S. roadways despite forecasts, reports, and alerts of hazardous driving conditions. In Must Modernize, Say New Reports addition, the report notes that severe weather events with widespread warnings can still result in large-​­scale loss of life and property damage, as was the case with Hurricane Sandy eather forecasting and hazard pre- For example, the current Wireless Emer- in 2012 and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and diction capabilities have improved gency Alerts (WEA) system, a part of the Inte- Maria in 2017. By knowing how people W significantly in the past decade, but grated Public Alert and Warning System respond to warnings and why they respond the United States’ emergency alert and warn- (IPAWS), leverages the ubiquity of cell phones the way they do, scientists could develop a ing systems have not kept pace with advance- in modern life. But the system can fail when more well informed system that could pro- ments, according to two new reports from the cellular networks are congested or coverage is mote better public safety. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, unavailable, and it does not use the diverse NASEM’s Committee on Advancing Social and Medicine (NASEM). The reports were communication capabilities of smartphones, and Behavioral Science Research and Applica- released on 1 November (http:// bit . ly/ weather says the report. It states that social media and tion Within the Weather Enterprise wrote this - reports - 2017). private companies, including Facebook, Twit- second report. In it, the committee explains Research that improves the accuracy of ter, and Google, have begun to incorporate that “an individual’s response to a severe weather forecasts and hazard prediction must hazard warnings and alerts into their plat- weather event may depend on their under- continue, the reports state. However, to make forms, which likely reach more individuals standing of the forecast, prior experience with the best use of forecasts, the nation’s alert than WEA. severe weather, concerns about their other capabilities “will need to evolve and progress NASEM’s Committee on the Future of family members or property, their capacity to as the capabilities of smart phones and other Emergency Alert and Warning Systems: take the recommended protective actions, and mobile broadband devices improve and newer Research Directions, which wrote the report, numerous other factors.” technologies become available,” according to suggests that “IPAWS could be augmented so The report adds that research in social and an official summary of one of the reports. The that it draws on a wide variety of data sources, behavioral sciences “offers great potential not summary adds that “this evolution will need enhances public understanding of emergen- just for improving communications of hazard- to be informed by both technical research and cies and public response, and uses a wider ous weather warnings but also for improving social and behavioral science research.” range of potential technologies and devices for preparedness and mitigation for weather delivering