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Final Model Documentation Report

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Final Model Documentation Report ALAMEDA COUNTYWIDE TRAVEL MODEL PLAN BAY AREA 2040 UPDATE Final Documentation Report January, 2019 Prepared by: Alameda Countywide Travel Model | Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Alameda Countywide Travel Model ........................................................................................ i Plan Bay Area 2040 Update.................................................................................................................................. i Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... i List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. v Summary ................................................................................................................................... 1 Key Features .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Key Updates .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Selected Consistency Results ............................................................................................................................. 3 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Objectives and Requirements of the Model Update ....................................................................... 5 1.1. Summary of Key Features ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.2. Summary of Key Updates ............................................................................................................................ 9 2. Study Area and Transportation Analysis Zones .............................................................. 12 2.1. Alameda County TAZs ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.2. Other Bay Area TAZs ................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3. San Joaquin County TAZs .......................................................................................................................... 21 2.4. External Gateways ...................................................................................................................................... 22 3. Transportation Networks ................................................................................................... 25 3.1. Road Network .............................................................................................................................................. 25 3.2. Transit Networks ........................................................................................................................................... 36 3.3. Bicycle Network ........................................................................................................................................... 38 3.4. Future Transportation Network Updates ................................................................................................. 38 4. Socioeconomic Data ....................................................................................................... 42 4.1. Input Databases .......................................................................................................................................... 42 4.2. Alameda County Socioeconomic Data ................................................................................................ 43 4.3. Other Bay Area Socioeconomic Data .................................................................................................... 46 4.4. Socioeconomic Inputs for San Joaquin County .................................................................................... 46 4.5. Special Generators ..................................................................................................................................... 46 4.6. External Gateways ...................................................................................................................................... 48 5. Model Process ................................................................................................................... 49 5.1. Workers per Household and Auto Ownership Models ......................................................................... 50 Page i Alameda Countywide Travel Model | Table of Contents 5.2. Trip Generation ............................................................................................................................................ 51 5.3. Trip Distribution ............................................................................................................................................. 53 5.4. Mode Choice ............................................................................................................................................... 54 5.5. Time of Day ................................................................................................................................................... 55 5.6. Trip Assignment ............................................................................................................................................ 55 5.7. Feedback ..................................................................................................................................................... 59 6. Model Validation .............................................................................................................. 60 6.1. Validation Data ........................................................................................................................................... 60 6.2. Road Screenline Validation ....................................................................................................................... 61 6.3. Transit Validation ......................................................................................................................................... 71 6.4. Bicycle Validation ....................................................................................................................................... 72 7. Model Forecasts................................................................................................................ 74 7.1. Forecast Results............................................................................................................................................ 74 8. Model Consistency ........................................................................................................... 89 8.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 89 8.2. Product 1 ....................................................................................................................................................... 90 8.3. ProductS 2 and 3 ......................................................................................................................................... 94 8.4. Product 4 ....................................................................................................................................................... 98 8.5. Product 5 ....................................................................................................................................................... 98 8.6. Product 6 ....................................................................................................................................................... 99 8.7. Product 7 ....................................................................................................................................................... 99 8.8. Product 8 ....................................................................................................................................................... 99 8.9. Products 9 and 10 ..................................................................................................................................... 102 8.10. Product 11 ................................................................................................................................................ 102 8.11. Products 12 and 13 ................................................................................................................................. 108 Appendix A: Plan Bay Area 2040 Project List ..................................................................... 112 Appendix B: Calibration of Model Components................................................................ 113 Calibration Data ............................................................................................................................................... 113 Workers per Household and Auto Ownership Models ............................................................................... 113 Trip Generation ................................................................................................................................................
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