N°77 - May 13 2008 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS GOVERNMENT P. 1-5 Politics & Government c GOVERNMENT The Saint Petersburg « condominium » c The Saint Petersburg « condominium » suceeds itself… suceeds itself… Contrary to an opinion widely circulated abroad, Vladimir Putin is not a man who brutally and de- GOVERNMENT, KREMLIN, cisively resolves confrontations and conflicts of interests between the senior “cadres” of the regime. SERVICES The composition of the government and the new Presidential administration (which we analyse in c The new strong men of Russian power detail in the following pages) has just provided a striking illustration. The months that preceded the c Bulbov affair : Yuri Chayka adoption of a definite solution to resolve the problem of Vladimir Putin’s succession furnished episo- score points des of rare violence, such as the assassination of Vladimir Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya that involves former “service” members and which put the Russian President in an almost humiliating si- P. 6-7 Business & Networks tuation vis à vis the international community. INDUSTRY c Yuri Kovalchuk’s good deal But we also were witnesses to spectacular scenes of political vaudeville such as the public brawls at the Vyborg ship yards between the heads of the power structures, Nikolay Patrushev of the FSB and Viktor Cherkesov of FOCUS the anti-narcotics service, which we have extensively related in these columns. The confusion of res- c South Stream : Serbian doubts ponsibilities among certain eminent members of the Presidential administration, at the same time ALERTS managers of considerable economic and strategic interests, such as Igor Sechin, has also given rise c Gazprom and Rosneft share to extremely hard confrontations for control of certain assets, at the very heart of the governmental the continental shelf apparatus. In brief, and in all logic, taking into account the public statements made by Vladimir Pu- c Natural gas price : liberalisa- tin on these subjects all during the legislative and presidential election campaigns, when he denoun- tion delayed ced on multiple occasions corruption in the public scene, we might have expected a serious spring house-cleaning in the governmental team. It would have been the occasion for the new Prime minis- P. 8 Regions & CIS ter to give himself some elbow-room, to “elevate” some new faces in the power system and free him- CAUCASUS self once and for all from the oppressive influence wielded by some of the men who have accompa- c Abkhazia : the first lessons nied him since 2000. from the crisis READ ALSO… But we are forced to observe that nothing of the such has taken place. The team which, under the joint authority of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, will manage Russia is strictly the same, with In “Ukrainia Intelligence” some marginal corrections to real disgraces and very light reprimands in the form of changing of posts. Last Issue No new personalities have appeared on the horizon, except perhaps the ambassador of Russia in Pa- GOVERNMENT cThe constitution, as much ris, Alexandre Avdeev, appointed Culture minister. But no regional governor, for example, has made of powder keg as ever in an entry into the governmental team, while Putin and Medvedev have decided to accelerate financial Ukrainian politics transfers, in various forms, toward the most disadvantaged Russian regions. Looking hard, we can DIPLOMACY nevertheless uncover some subtle modifications in the balance between the different clans who di- cTimoshenko-Zubkov : A vide the favours of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin. promising meeting ALERT d Relative strengthening of the “liberal economists” with the Sergey Naryshkin/Igor Sechin “cou- cPolls : Support for NATO ple”, the former becoming head of the Presidential administration, and the latter first vice Prime mi- membership declining nister, to which must be added Alexey Kudrin who retains the Finance portfolio. steadily d Loss of influence on the organs of power of the Nikolay Patrushev/Igor Setchin/ Vladimir Usti- SUBSCRIPTION Print Edition nov axis, whose “exploits” we have related last autumn and winter. Ustinov, former general prosecu- (23 issues, airmailed overseas) tor turned Justice minister, who saw himself as President of Russia a bit too early and in a somewhat €770 TTC too noisy way, purely and simply disappears from the “picture”, while his acolyte Patrushev abandons the reins of the FSB for the pomp and dachas that generally improve the function of president of the The Web Pack (Print Edition National security council. But Igor Sechin once again has slipped through the raindrops. True, he lea- + PDF + archives acess) ves his duties of deputy head of the Presidential administation, but he wins in visibility and in econo- € 880 TTC mic responsibilities with the title of vice Prime minister, in charge of the vast domain of industry and energy, also with the presidency of the public holding company charged with naval construction whose The Premium recovery has just been elevated to the rank of national priority by Vladimir Putin. It is useful to note Subscription (Print Edition + PDF + access that the FSB and the Justice ministry are now in the hands of Alexandre Bortnikov (who was Pa- to all the website contents) trushev’s deputy) and Alexandre Konovalov, the latter being a faithful to Dmitry Medvedev, while € 1200 TTC Bortnikov was able to keep his distance from Patrushev and Sechin. The d d d Continue page 2 www.russia-intelligence.fr RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government d d d From page 1 President in fact completes his team in power. The first is that the group was formed, in its broad “control” capacity with the nomination of his friend Konstantin lines, now some twenty years ago in Saint Petersburg. It conso- Chuychenko to the direction of Kremlin control. Chuychenko lidated itself since 1999 and established itself fully at the Rus- had been up to now member of the direction committee at Gaz- sian commands following 2003/2004. Outside of a few conflicts prom, in charge notably of relations with Ukraine and we had an- that were particularly spectacular between Medvedev and Se- nounced a few weeks ago that he would undoubtedly accompany chin at the time of the division of the Yukos assets, this group, Medvedev in his new responsibilities (Russia Intelligence n°68 composed of economlists, lawyers, tchekists, businessmen, civil of December 20 2007). Those who had been anticipating a clash servants, almost all originally from the northern capital, have between the associates of Medvedev and Putin must be disap- been able to preserve a sort of coherence over the years. The se- pointed. In the Kremlin, Medvedev will work with former Putin cond reason is that the group has proceeded in recent years to collaborators, such as Vladislav Surkov, the inventor of the a redistribution of part of the industrial and energy assets of Rus- “Nashi” and other discoveries or Alexandre Beglov or Alexey sia, in official forms (in the image of the rise to power of Sergey Gromov. In reality, it really seems that overall the nominations Chemezov) or unofficially. One of the problems raised by the suc- to the government and the Presidential administration were not cession of Vladimir Putin was precisely the durability of this sys- the subject of negotiations but rather “discussions” which indi- tem of stability within the condominium. The latter succeeds it- cates the willingness of the President and Prime minister was, self. It is no guarantee of a peaceful existence nor the disappearance for the time being, to assure stability and continuity. of conflicts and confrontations. But it is the assured that the dirty laundry will continue to be washed within the family and that At least two essential reasons explain the preservation of the “outsiders” will only rarely have access to the gaming table. d The new Russian government d Vladimir Putin – Prime minister (Finance) d Igor Levitin – Transportation d Elvira Nabiullina – Economic develop- d Igor Shchyogolev – Telecommunications d Viktor Zubkov – 1st vice Prime minister ment d Sergey Lavrov – Foreign affairs (Agriculture, fisheries) d Yuri Trutnev – Natural resources d Viktor Khristenko – Industry d Igor Shuvalov – 1st vice Prime minister d Alexey Gordeev – Agriculture d Alexandre Avdeev – Culture (External trade) d Alexandre Konovalov – Justice d Sergey Shmatko – Energy d Sergey Ivanov, vice-Prime minister (De- d Vitaly Mutko – Sports Other nominations : fence industries) d Tatyana Golikova – Health and social af- d Sergey Naryshkin – head of the Presi- d Sergey Sobyanin, vice-Prime minister fairs dential administration (Government general secretariat) d Dmitry Kozak – Regional development d Nikolay Patrushev – secretary of the na- d Igor Sechin, vice-Prime minister (Energy d Rashid Nurgaliev – Interior tional security council and industry – other than defence) d Anatoly Serdyukov – Defence d Alexandre Bortnikov – director of the d Alexandre Zhukov, vice-Prime minister d Andrey Fursenko – Education and FSB (National projects, WO Sochi 2014) science d Viktor Cherkesov – director of federal d Alexey Kudrin, vice-Prime minister d Sergey Shoygu – Emergency situations arms procurement. Discover Foreign Policy French Edition 2 Want to know more : Nadia Balatchev [email protected] Russia Intelligence N°77 j May 13 2008 www.russia-intelligence.fr RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government GOVERNMENT, KREMLIN, SERVICES c The new strong men of Russian power The series of nominations presented by Dmitry Medvedev from the President and the Prime minister, whom he knows and Vladimir Putin on May 12 already provides an insight into since the early 1990s. According to our sources, he owes his the new balance inside Russian power, a balance that should nomination to his marked discretion during the “clan wars”. be seen as obviously temporary and will be called on to evolve Alexandre Bortnikov is a member of the supervisory council during the course of the coming months of the cohabitation of Sovkomflot, the new “national champion” in maritime trans- between the two men.