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Emergency Warn in G Watch Executive Overview of Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa October 18, 2006 FEWS NET Alert Status Food Security Alerts in Africa Highest Priority—Urgent Action Required Ethiopia: Pastoral households continue to face a food security crisis. Water and pasture scarcity remains critical in many dis- tricts. Good rains in agricultural areas mean that this year’s crop production estimates are expected to be above average, but seri- ous floods may have a negative impact on crop production. Emergency Kenya: Food insecurity remains critical in western pastoral areas of the country, while moderate improvements to food security have been assessed elsewhere. The short-rains season (September to December) is beginning, and its outcome will determine whether recovery takes hold or drought affected areas slide back into a similar crisis as experienced in late 2005 and early 2006. Somalia: The prevailing civil insecurity and tension is increasing the rate of population displacement within the country and across national borders. According to UNHCR, over 6,000 Somalis crossed into Kenya in September. Population displacement is occurring at a critical time for both agricultural and pastoral households: the period of land preparation for the coming deyr season (October-December) and livestock migration in search of water and pasture from the early deyr rains. Urgent Action Required Chad: The security situation in eastern and southern Chad contin- ues to deteriorate, interrupting essential humanitarian activities as numbers of refugees are increasing. About 10,000 agro-pastoral Significant Events Timeline households have been displaced by violence. These households, who normally produce a surplus in a good year, did not harvest any crops and now depend on food aid. Niger: Early millet harvests have reached markets, and prices are Warning declining. Admission rates to therapeutic feeding centers are at their lowest point of the year, after peaking in June. Heavy rains late in the season caused flooding and crop damage, but excess moisture will be very beneficial for off-season cropping. Food Aid Needs and Beneficiaries Sudan (southern): Although the harvest has brought an end to the hunger season, food access remains difficult for poor and returnee Country Population at Risk Food Aid Beneficiaries households in Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Jonglei states. In Jon- Chad 436,686 292,539 glei State, conflict has negatively affected crop production, lim- ited wild food collection, and disrupted pastoral migrations. Djibouti 230,000 47,500 10.3 million Zimbabwe: The Grain Marketing Board has been unable to move Ethiopia > 10 million maize from surplus to deficit areas, and many farmers have yet to (PSNP + emergency) be paid for their produce even as the new season begins. WFP has Kenya 3.6 million 2.9 million been forced to scale back operations, targeting only the most vul- nerable of the 1.4 million people assessed as being food insecure Niger 3.87 million TBD between now and March 2007. (See back page.) Somalia 1.8 million 621,163 Preparedness and Monitoring Required South Sudan 1.9 million 1.9 million Djibouti: In urban areas, poor households can not afford to meet Uganda 2.1 million (incl. IDPs) 1.6 million Watch their minimum food and non-food needs due to the continued Zimbabwe >1.4 million 850,000 (August) unseasonable rise in prices. Uganda: As Uganda’s fragile peace process takes hold, IDPs are FEWS NET is a USAID funded activity. For more information, please slowly gaining more access to agricultural land and beginning to visit www.fews.net or email: [email protected]. reestablish their livelihoods. If the peace process holds and IDPs in the north have sufficient access to seeds and tools, they are Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily expected to increase their own production by mid 2007, gradually reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Develop- reducing the need for food aid. ment or the United States Government. Executive Overview of Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa Special Focus: Zimbabwe October 18, 2006 Zimbabwe: Needs are going unmet as hunger season gets underway Although Zimbabwe’s cereal production in the 2005/06 season marked a significant improvement compared to recent years, at least 1.4 million Zimbabweans will require food assistance between now and the beginning of the next harvest in April 2007. The cereal harvest reached about 1.4 million MT, about twice what was produced last year. However, there are still severe food deficits in southern and western Zimbabwe, largely because the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) has been unable to move the maize from sur- plus to deficit areas. In order to meet national grain requirements, the Government of Zimbabwe plans to import another 565,000 MT from Zambia and South Africa, but suppliers remain skeptical of the government’s ability to finance the imports. In October 2006, the World Food Programme (WFP) had planned to provide food assistance to 900,000 food insecure people, but has had to scale down to 330,000 people due to a funding shortfall. The availability of maize in markets across the country now depends on the ability of the GMB to procure and transport maize. Months after the last harvest (May to July 2006), the GMB has been unable to meet the demand for maize in deficit areas, while farmers in surplus areas still have excess supply waiting to be collected. The GMB lacks the material resources, including packag- ing materials and reliable transport, to collect and ship the maize. A substantial number of farmers who supplied maize to the GMB as early as May and June are still awaiting payment. With annual inflation running at over 1,000 percent, this delay has severe con- sequences for rural incomes and the ability of farming households to access food later in the year. Retail maize prices have been rising steadily since the harvest and will continue to rise during the hunger period. The Government of Zimbabwe intends to import 565,000 MT of maize for the 2006/07 marketing Figure 1: Proportion of rural households considered food insecure from year, including 480,000 MT from South Africa and May 2006-April 2007, by livelihood zone 85,000 MT from Zambia. Some suppliers in South Africa remain skeptical of the capacity of the Gov- Centenary ernment of Zimbabwe to finance the maize im- N Guruve Mount Darwin W E ports. The Zambian maize has yet to leave Zambia, Rushinga S Hurungwe and analysts have expressed concerns about the Kariba UMP Mudzi Makonde Mazowe ability of the brokers to complete the deal. Bindura Gokwe North Mutoko Zvimba Murehwa Binga Nyanga Kadoma Chegutu Goromonzi WFP is currently providing food assistance to Gokwe South Seke Marondera 330,000 beneficiaries through targeted feeding Makoni Wedza Mutasa Lupane Chikomba programs, including: school feeding, support to Hwange Nkayi Kwekwe Chirumhanzu Mutare HIV-affected households, orphans, and the chroni- Buhera Tsholotsho Bubi Gweru Gutu Chimanimani cally ill and vulnerable. For the upcoming lean Food Insecurity Umguza Shurugwi Bulilima Insiza season, December 2006 to March 2007, WFP 0 - 4 % Zvishavane Masvingo Bikita Umzingwane plans to support one million people in acutely food 5 - 12 % Chivi Zaka Chipinge 13 - 18 % Mberengwa Mangwe insecure districts through a vulnerable group feed- 19 - 24 % Matobo Chiredzi ing program. WFP also plans to target an addi- 25 - 30 % Gwanda 31 - 37 % Mwenezi tional 900,000 people during the course of 2007 38 %+ Beitbridge through targeted feeding programs. However, the Parks program is experiencing serious resource con- straints and requires pledges of USD 17 million to Source: ZimVAC 2006 meet these needs. The Consortium for Southern Africa Food Security Emergency (C-SAFE) plans to assist another 425,000 people through targeted feeding programs and about 773,000 through school feeding between October and March. Although this will offset some of WFP’s shortfall, WFP’s program needs to be fully funded to ensure that the needs of all food insecure Zimbabweans are met. There are serious concerns about prospects for agricultural production in the coming season. The climate outlook for the season is mixed. The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (held in September) forecasted an enhanced probability that rainfall will be below average in the first half of the season. The government has recently ended an input support program for new farmers, encouraging them to turn to the market to purchase seed and fertilizer. But as many farmers await payment from the GMB for their last crop, the prices of inputs continue to rise, increasing by 10 to 35 percent in early October due to their scarcity and the rampant inflation. The limited availability and high cost of these inputs will influence the area planted and yields of maize this year. For more information on Zimbabwe, please visit www.fews.net .
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