Bulletin #19 • December 2018 • www.zrbf.co.zw

The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url

Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of August 2018 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 6 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 8 Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ Signals 12 undp.org), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil (rufael. Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water [email protected]). level in selected rivers 13

UNDP , ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, , Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights

According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, all 18 districts were rated “Alert”. Crisis modification activities are continuing in all ZRBF 18 districts as a result of ZRBF HFMS trigger indicators and 2018 seasonal outlook, ZiMVAC and FEWSNET.

The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of November were: 1. Cattle price in , Binga, Bubi, Mwenezi, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 2. Common diarrhoea Reported Cases in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, , Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 3. Distances to water sources for households in Nkayi 4. Goat Price in Mberengwa, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 5. Indigenous chicken price in Umzingwane 6. Maize Price in Umzingwane 7. Number Livestock Poverty Deaths in Umzingwane 8. Pastures Availability in Chiredzi, Lupane, Matobo, Mwenezi and Umzingwane 9. Pearl Millet Price in , Kariba, Mudzi, Mutoko and Zvishavane 10. Rapoko Price in Beitbridge and Kariba 11. Sorghum Price in Zvishavane

Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018 Zvishavane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Umzingwane

Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Umguza No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Nyanga No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Nkayi No

Data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mwenezi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mutoko

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Mudzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Mbire

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mberengwa

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Matobo

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Lupane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Kariba

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Insiza

Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Binga

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Bubi -

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Beitbridge

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Month Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-17 July 18 Feb-18 Sep-17 Nov 18 Nov Dec-17 Aug-18 Nov-17 Mar-18 May-18 Sept-18 June-18 April-18 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 13 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts 1: Overall Classification Table Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming Pasture availability is in emergency category in five (5) districts (Insiza, Matobo, Mberengwa, Nkayi and Umzingwane, and in alarm category for 11 districts and one district, Zvishavane, in the alert stage. The farmers should be encouraged to provide their cattle with some supplementary feeds to save the cattle from possible poverty death.

Chiredzi was in the alert category for crop pests, where about 10 ha was affected by Fall army worm in ward 15. All the districts should take advantage of the FAW, animal health and postharvest management trainings currently being rolled out by Coopers in all the ZRBF targeted districts to cascade the trainings to the ordinary farmers and sharing with farmers and agro-dealers the list of approved pesticides as last resort measure to control FAW.

Mberengwa had 2063 cases of Newcastle disease and six districts were in the Alarm stage for reported cases of livestock disease outbreaks. Farmers in Mberengwa and the nearby districts such as Mwenezi and Zvishavane should be encouraged to vaccinate their birds with Newcastle vaccines to prevent further spread of the deadly disease. Coopers has just facilitated some ToT trainings in animal health and the ZRBF consortia partners and Agritex should facilitate the cascading of the trainings to the ordinary farm- ers to improve their knowledge on how to deal with animal diseases.

Considering that 15 districts are still in the Emergency category for waterborne diseases, the ZRBF con- sortia partners should be encouraged to collaborate with other NGOs and the Ministry of Health and Child Care to carry out some public health awareness campaigns across all the districts, especially in the light of the approaching rainy season.

Distance to water sources is in the Alert category for 13 out of the 18 districts. Households in Nkayi and Mbire travelling an average of 7km (emergency category) and 4 km respectively. The ZRBF consortia part- ners should coordinate with the District Development Fund and other development agencies to facilitate borehole rehabilitation to improve house access to portable water in their respective districts. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index

NO VCI image were obtained on the scheduled dates due to overcast conditions.

Real-time water levels in major rivers

The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicating low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Although the rain seasosn has started across the country, Table 3 show that there is no flooding risk in any of the selected districts. Water levels are increasing across the country and in neighbouring countries. The Zambezi River also witnessed an increase in flow rates from 220m3/sec to 253m3/sec. However, three gauging stations (Mazowe Bridge, Chidodo and Runde’s Confluence with Tokwe) continued to have water levels below the gauge levels.

Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, November 2018.

River Site Level Flow Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 0.285m 220m3/s Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 0.485m 4.54m3/s Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge Below Gauge Normal Manyame Bridge No Data Musengezi Centenary 0.2m 0.56m3/s Normal Musengezi Chidodo Below Gauge Normal Save Condo Dam 0.36m 2.55m3/s Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe Below Gauge Normal

Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators

The micro-indicator data from the 18 districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indictors. Biophysical, production and access indicators were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month.

• Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 14 out of 18 districts up from 11 in the previous month. Four (4) districts were in the Alarm stage resulting from effect on pasture availability and state of water sources. Three (3) districts Chiredzi, Mwenezi and Beitbridge moved from the Alarm stage in November to Alert

• Production indicators are in the alert category for 16 districts; This is mainly due to the deteriorat- ing livestock body condition as well as the high cases of reported livestock diseases and waterborne diseases Water borne diseases are in emergency for 15 districts.

• Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category with 17 out 18 districts. Increased water live- stock trekking distance and distances to water sources for households led to access indicators Alert categorization. Mbire was in the Alarm category

• Trade indicators were in the normal category for 11 districts. Five (4) districts were in the Alert cat- egory and Zvishavane and Umzingwane were in the Alarm due to the goat and cattle prices with a beast in zvishavane selling at $700 an increase by $200 dollars from previous month and goat price $70 up from $50 last month. Indigenous chicken prices also shot up from $8 to $20 in Umzingwane. Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Table 3: Trigger Indicator summary for December 2018

District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Alert Binga Alarm Alert Alert Alert Bubi Alert Alert Alert Alert Chiredzi Alert Alert Alert Normal Insiza Alert Normal Alert Normal Kariba Alert Alert Alert Alert Lupane Alarm Alert Alert Normal Matobo Alarm Alert Alert Normal Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Normal Mbire Alarm Normal Alarm Normal Mudzi Alert Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Normal Mwenezi Alert Alert Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Normal Nyanga No data No data No data No data Umguza Alert Alert Alert Alert Umzingwane Alert Alert Alert Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Alarm Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update

Biophysical Trigger indicators

Table 4: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 2 19 2 Binga 2 No data 3 Bubi 2 15 2 Chiredzi 2 1.88 3 Insiza 1 10 3 Kariba 2 0 2 Lupane 2 27 2 Matobo 1 73 2 Mberengwa 1 2.13 3 Mbire 2 68 2 Mudzi 2 33.5 4 Mutoko 2 68 3 Mwenezi 2 1.92 3 Nkayi 1 0 2 Nyanga No data No data No data Umguza 2 2 2 Umzingwane 1 0 4 Zvishavane 3 0 3

• Pasture availability was in Emergency category in five (5) districts and in Alarm Category for 11 districts from 10 last month. One (1) district Zvishavane was in the Alert stage

• The state of water sources was in Alert category in Seven (7) districts. Eight (8) districts were in the alarm stage an increase by one. Mudzi and Umzingwane’ water sources were in the normal category. Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Production Trigger indicators

Table 6: Production trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Livestock Reported Cases of Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Poverty Deaths Livestock Diseases of Waterborne Outbreaks Diseases Beitbridge No data 2 2 0 9 233 Binga No data No data 1 20 15 220 Bubi No data 3 2 21 2 56 Chiredzi 2 2 1 22 0 784 Insiza No data No data 2 0 1 80 Kariba No data 1 2 3 60 536 Lupane No data No data 1 57 40 181 Matobo No data No data 1 37 46 165 Mberengwa 3 No data 2 55 2063 343 Mbire 3 No data 2 0 -2 332 Mudzi 3 3 1 0 1 462 Mutoko 3 4 2 0 44 418 Mwenezi 3 3 2 37 18 299 Nkayi No data 3 2 56 2 196 Nyanga No data No data No data No data No data No data Umguza 3 No data 2 24 5 211 Umzingwane 3 No data 2 103 8 112 Zvishavane 3 No data 2 4 366 279

• Eight (8) districts were in the normal category. whilst one (1) district; Chiredzi was in the alert category were about 10 ha was affected by Fall army worm in ward 15. • Livestock body condition was in the Alert category in 12 out of the 18 districts. This is mainly due to the pasture availability which is critically inadequate in five (5) districts and in the Alert and Alarm stages in the rest of the districts • Livestock poverty deaths were in the Emergency category for Umzingwane with 103 deaths, pasture avail- ability is critically inadequate in this district. Three (3) districts were in the alarm category and six (6) in the Alert category. The pasture availability has led to an increase in the livestock poverty deaths with 12 districts recording livestock poverty deaths this month from only 5 last month. • Six (6) districts were in the Alarm stage for reported cases of livestock disease outbreaks. Mberengwa had 2063 cases of New castle disease. 10 districts were in the Alert category. • 15 districts were in the Emergency category for Waterborne diseases a decrease by two from last month as Nyanga has no data. Common diarrhoea cases have significantly reduced in Bubi and Insiza which were in the Alarm category. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Access Trigger Indicators

Table 6: Access trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 2 3 No data Binga 1 2 No data 7 Bubi 1.5 2 4 3 Chiredzi 1.46 2 3 2.35 Insiza 3 3 4 3 Kariba 3 3 4 7 Lupane 3 3 4 3 Matobo 3 2 3 3 Mberengwa 1.71 2 No data 2.85 Mbire 4 2 3 6 Mudzi 3 2 3 5 Mutoko 1.3 2 4 2 Mwenezi 2.03 2 4 2.77 Nkayi 7 3 4 5 Nyanga No data No data No data No data Umguza 2.5 3 4 10 Umzingwane 2 3 4 2.5 Zvishavane 2.09 2 No data 3

• Distance to water sources is in the Alert category for 13 out of the 18 districts. Households in Nkayi were travelling an average of 7km since last month resulting in the Emergency categorisation. is in the Alarm stage with households travelling an average of 4km to water sources. Only two (2) districts were in normal category.

• Six (6) districts remained in the alarm stage on livestock trekking distance for water from last month Livestock in Umguza. 10 districts were in the alert category.

• School attendance was in Alert stage in five (5) districts. The rest were in the normal category except for Binga, Nyanga, Mberengwa, Zvishavane where no data was available

• Eleven (11) districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert category. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Trade Trigger Indicators

Table 7: Trade trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Mil- Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price let Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 750 60 9 9 9 No data 80 9 Binga No data 40 10 7 6 No data 40 6 Bubi 700 60 8 8 8 No data 70 8 Chiredzi 555.88 49.71 7.82 9.06 8.87 13.2 78.82 7.94 Insiza 500 60 10 8 12 15 70 10 Kariba 600 50 8 10 12 25 55 10 Lupane 500 40 5 8 10 10 60 10 Matobo 500 50 10 10 10 12 60 10 Mberengwa 550 80 7 8 8 12 100 10 Mbire 472 36 7 6 7 No data 53 5 Mudzi 350 60 8 8 12 20 75 8 Mutoko 450 30 7 10 12 18 65 10 Mwenezi 625 53.33 7.33 7.33 6.63 15.83 89.58 6.08 Nkayi 450 45 7 8 9 No data 50 No data Nyanga No data No data No data No data No data No data No data No data Umguza 500 70 5 8 No data No data 70 7 Umzingwane 700 120 20 15 No data No data 130 No data Zvishavane 700 70 10 10 12 12 100 12 • Cattle prices were in the Emergency category for Five (5) districts. In Zvishavane and Mberengwa cattle prices rose from $500 in the previous month to $700 in November. Prices were normal in the rest of the districts. • Goat prices were mainly in the normal category except in four (4) districts with the highest prices recorded in Umzingwane ($120) and Mberengwa ($80). Indigenous chicken prices have also gone up to $20 in Umzingwane up from $8 in the previous month. • Prices for maize, sorghum, pearl millet remained in the Normal category except for five (5) districts which are in the emergency stage a 20l bucket of maize is priced at $15 in Umzingwane up from $10. Rapoko prices were also in the Normal stage except for Kariba where the price is $25 for a 20l litre bucket. Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals

• 7 November 2018 - Zimbabwe: WFP to Boost Food Security https://allafrica.com/stories/201811070456.html • 12 November 2018 - Rural Women and Agriculture in Zimbabwe https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/rural-women-and-agriculture-zimbabwe • 13 November 2018 - Zimbabwe Farmers Call for Help to Mitigate Drought Effects https://www.voazimbabwe.com/a/zimbabwe-farmers-call-for-help-to-mitigate-drought- effects/4656060.html • 13 November 2018 - Plea to exempt cotton farmers from 2% tax https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/11/plea-to-exempt-cotton-farmers-from-2-tax/ • 14 November 2018 - Climate smart agriculture benefits Zimbabwe’s smallholder farmers https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/11/climate-smart-agriculture-benefits-zim-smallholder- farmers/ • 15 November 2018 - Fish farming set to transform Zimbabwe’s economy http://www.zbc.co.zw/fish-farming-set-to-transform-zims-economy/ • 15 November 2018 - Use irrigation to boost food security: Agritex https://www.thezimbabwedaily.com/news/288532-use-irrigation-to-boost-food-security-agritex. html • 23 November 2018 - 2.4 million in need of food aid https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2018/11/23/2-4-million-in-need-of-food-aid • 24 November 2018 - Seed Co launches innovation challenge https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/11/seed-co-launches-innovation-challenge/ • 26 November 2018 - Agro-forestry vital for climate change mitigation https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/11/agro-forestry-vital-for-climate-change-mitigation/ • 26 November 2018 - Farmers urged to take agriculture seriously https://www.chronicle.co.zw/farmers-urged-to-take-agriculture-seriously/ • 26 November 2018 - Zimbabwe’s Dry Areas Appeal For Food Aid and Water Supplies https://www.voanews.com/a/4673809.html • 27 November 2018 - Drought-Threatened Zimbabwe Faces A Quandary: Grow Maize Or Not? https://www.voazimbabwe.com/a/zimbabwe-drought-plant-maize-or-not/4674755.html • 29 November 2018 - Government to scale back on command agricultural funding https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/11/govt-to-scale-back-on-command-agric-funding/ • 30 November 2018 - Incessant rains leave over 14 Muzarabani families homeless https://www.herald.co.zw/incessant-rains-leave-over-14-muzarabani-families-homeless/ Page 12 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #19 | December 2018

Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers

Table 4: River water flow categorisation

Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%