O Planeamento Civil De Emergência No Novo Paradigma Da Segurança

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O Planeamento Civil De Emergência No Novo Paradigma Da Segurança O Planeamento Civil de Emergência no Novo Paradigma da Segurança Autor: Nuno Miguel Alves de Sousa Orientador: Professor Doutor Rui Carlos Pereira Dissertação para obtenção de grau de Mestre em Estratégia Lisboa 2015 O Planeamento Civil de Emergência no Novo Paradigma de Segurança Autor: Nuno Miguel Alves de Sousa Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas Orientador: Professor Doutor Rui Carlos Pereira Dissertação para obtenção de grau de Mestre em Estratégia Imagem da Capa: The Owl of Minerva1 (Silver Tetradrachm of Athens, 5th century BC) 2 The “owl of Minerva spreads its wings only with the falling of the dusk.” 3 “O futuro não nos cai do céu já feito. É preciso merecê-lo. Se não, é só o futuro dos outros.” 1 Cfr. Nguyen, Marie-Lan (2009). Tetradrachm Athens 480-420BC MBA Lyon [imagem]. Obtido em 22 de Junho 2015 de Wikipedia: http://goo.gl/64jJBl 2 Cfr. Abramson, J. (2009). Minerva’s Owl – The Tradition of Western Political Thought. London: Harvard University Press. (p. 304) 3 Cfr. Lourenço, E. (2011). A Europa Desencantada - Para uma Mitologia Europeia. Lisboa: Gradiva Publicações, S.A. (p. 11) v Índice 1. Introdução ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Justificação do Tema ............................................................................................... 1 1.2. Objetivos do Estudo ................................................................................................ 1 1.3. Metodologia Aplicada ............................................................................................. 3 1.4. Problemas de Investigação ...................................................................................... 3 2. O Estado ......................................................................................................................... 5 2.1. A Teoria do Estado .................................................................................................. 5 2.2. Os Fins do Estado .................................................................................................... 9 3. Teoria da Segurança ..................................................................................................... 11 3.1. Segurança – Conceitos Gerais ............................................................................... 11 3.2. Segurança Humana ................................................................................................ 19 3.3. Segurança – Definição OTAN .............................................................................. 21 4. Pilares da Segurança .................................................................................................... 23 4.1. Defesa Nacional .................................................................................................... 23 4.2. O Conceito Estratégico de Defesa Nacional ......................................................... 26 4.3. Sistema Integrado de Segurança Interna ............................................................... 30 4.4. Sistema Nacional de Proteção Civil ...................................................................... 36 4.5. O Planeamento Civil de Emergência – Condição Atual ....................................... 44 4.6. Gestão de Crises e Guerra ..................................................................................... 49 4.6.1. Crise ................................................................................................................... 49 4.6.2. Guerra ................................................................................................................ 52 5. Estratégia...................................................................................................................... 55 5.1. Avaliação Nacional de Riscos ............................................................................... 55 5.2. Prospetiva Estratégica no Contexto do Novo Paradigma de Segurança – Doutrina “All Hazards Aproach” .................................................................................................... 58 vii 5.3. A Teoria da Estratégia ........................................................................................... 60 5.4. O Processo de Planeamento Estratégico ............................................................... 65 6. O Novo Paradigma de Segurança ................................................................................ 69 7. Resultados .................................................................................................................... 75 8. Discussão ..................................................................................................................... 79 9. Conclusão ..................................................................................................................... 85 Bibliografia .......................................................................................................................... 87 10. Anexos ...................................................................................................................... 95 ANEXO 1 – Organização da entrevista semiestruturada ................................................. 95 ANEXO 2 – Correspondência NATO Terminology Office ............................................ 95 ANEXO 3 – Cronologia do Fenómeno Polemológico .................................................... 98 ANEXO 4 – Fluxograma Prospetiva Estratégica........................................................... 114 ANEXO 5 – Catálogos de Perigos/Riscos ..................................................................... 115 Alemanha ................................................................................................................... 115 Suécia ......................................................................................................................... 117 Noruega ...................................................................................................................... 118 Irlanda ........................................................................................................................ 118 Canadá........................................................................................................................ 120 viii Índice – Tabelas Tabela 1 - Enquadramento da Segurança Humana .............................................................. 19 Tabela 2 - Competência p/ Declaração Situações de Alerta, Contingência e Calamidade .. 40 Tabela 3 - Natureza e tipologia dos conflitos armados ........................................................ 53 Tabela 4 - Perigos Avaliados na Avaliação Nacional de Risco ........................................... 56 Tabela 5 - Modelo Decisório de Definição da Política ........................................................ 65 Tabela 6 - Modelo Decisório de Elaboração da Estratégia – Formulação ........................... 66 Tabela 7 - Modelo Decisório de Elaboração da Estratégia – Operacionalização ................ 66 Tabela 8 - Processo de Planeamento Estratégico ................................................................. 67 Tabela 9 - Tabela de Resultados .......................................................................................... 75 Tabela 10 - Guião temático de entrevista semiestruturada .................................................. 95 Tabela 11 - Catálogo de Riscos - Alemanha ...................................................................... 115 Tabela 12 - Catálogo de Riscos - Suécia ........................................................................... 117 Tabela 13 - Catálogo de Perigos - Noruega ....................................................................... 118 Tabela 14 - Catálogo de Perigos - Irlanda ......................................................................... 118 Tabela 15 - Taxonomia de Risco (Canadá)........................................................................ 120 ix Índice – Ilustrações Ilustração 1 - Organograma da DNPE (ANPC) ................................................................... 42 Ilustração 2 - Processo de Avaliação Global de Risco ........................................................ 58 Ilustração 3 - Triângulo grego da Prospectiva Estratégica .................................................. 60 Ilustração 4 - Metodologia da Prospectiva Estratégica ...................................................... 114 xi Resumo A Proteção Civil é uma atividade emergente para gestão de emergências operando num ciclo de gestão constituído pelas fases da prevenção, preparação, resposta e recuperação face à manifestação ou probabilidade de ocorrência de riscos coletivos por origem natural ou tecnológica, com diminuta representatividade dos riscos por ameaça intencional externa (ou interna). Este reconhecimento encontra-se plasmado na Avaliação Nacional de Risco elaborada pela Autoridade Nacional de Proteção Civil em 2014. Numa sociedade crescentemente complexa e policêntrica, com dispersão do poder das sociedades ocidentais, projetado internacionalmente na hegemonia em fase dissipativa dos Estados Unidos da América, e ressurgimento do poder da potência continental, materializado na ação de anexação da península da Crimeia pela Federação Russa, poderá um pequeno Estado como Portugal (Almeida, 2012), face à necessidade de forjamento de alianças internacionais, desconsiderar os riscos por ameaça intencional de origem interna e/ou externa, materializada ou difusa por meios
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