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Pakistan Is Considered Vital to U.S = &0.89&38 _ _=*1&9.438= _=1&3=74389&)9= 5*(.&1.89=.3=4:9-=8.&3=++&.78= *'7:&7>=0`=,**3= 43,7*88.43&1= *8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 18/1**= <<<_(78_,4;= --.32= =*5479=+47=43,7*88 Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress &0.89&38 _ _= *1&9.438= = :22&7>= A stable, democratic, prosperous Pakistan is considered vital to U.S. interests. U.S. concerns regarding Pakistan include regional and global terrorism; Afghan stability; democratization and human rights protection; the ongoing Kashmir problem and Pakistan-India tensions; and economic development. A U.S.-Pakistan relationship marked by periods of both cooperation and discord was transformed by the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the ensuing enlistment of Pakistan as a key ally in U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts. Top U.S. officials have praised Pakistan for its ongoing cooperation, although long-held doubts exist about Islamabad’s commitment to some core U.S. interests. Pakistan is identified as a base for terrorist groups and their supporters operating in Kashmir, India, and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s army has conducted unprecedented and largely ineffectual counterterrorism operations in the country’s western tribal areas, where Al Qaeda operatives and pro-Taliban militants are said to enjoy “safe haven.” U.S. officials increasingly are concerned that the cross-border infiltration of Islamist militants from Pakistan into Afghanistan is a key obstacle to defeating the Taliban insurgency. The United States strongly encourages maintenance of a bilateral cease-fire and continued, substantive dialogue between Pakistan and neighboring India, which have fought three wars since 1947. A perceived Pakistan-India nuclear arms race has been the focus of U.S. nonproliferation efforts in South Asia. Attention to this issue intensified following nuclear tests by both countries in 1998. The United States has been troubled by evidence of transfers of Pakistani nuclear technologies and materials to third parties, including North Korea, Iran, and Libya. Such evidence became stark in 2004, and related illicit smuggling networks may still be operative. Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators turned positive after 2001, with some meaningful poverty reduction seen in this still poor country. However, economic conditions deteriorated sharply in 2008. Democracy has fared poorly in Pakistan, with the country enduring direct military rule for more than half of its existence. In 1999, the elected government was ousted in a coup led by Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf, who later assumed the title of president. Musharraf retained the position as army chief until his November 2007 retirement. Late 2007 instability included Musharraf’s six-week-long imposition of emergency rule and the assassination of former Prime Minister and leading opposition figure Benazir Bhutto. However, February 2008 parliamentary elections were relatively credible and seated a coalition led by Bhutto’s widower, Asif Zardari, and opposed to Musharraf’s continued rule. The coalition’s August vow to launch impeachment proceedings spurred Musharraf to resign the presidency and exit Pakistan’s political stage. Zardari subsequently was elected as the new President. The Bush Administration determined that a democratically elected government was restored in Islamabad, thus permanently removing coup-related aid sanctions. The Obama Administration states an intention to continue pursuing close and mutually beneficial relations with Islamabad. As part of its “new strategy” for Afghanistan, the Administration seeks development of a “more coherent” Pakistan policy to include conditioning U.S. military aid to Islamabad on that government’s progress in combating militancy and also tripling nonmilitary aid to improve the lives of the Pakistani people. A Special Representative was appointed to coordinate U.S. government efforts with both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan is among the world’s leading recipients of U.S. aid, obtaining more than $5.3 billion in overt assistance since 2001, including about $3.1 billion in development and humanitarian aid. Pakistan also has received about $6.7 billion in military reimbursements for its support of counterterrorism efforts. 43,7*88.43&1= *8*&7(-= *7;.(*= &0.89&38 _ _= *1&9.438= = 439*398= Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Key Current Issues and Developments............................................................................................ 3 The Newly-Seated U.S. Administration.................................................................................... 4 A New Concentration on Stabilizing Afghanistan .............................................................. 4 The Appointment of a U.S. Special Representative............................................................ 5 Deteriorating Economic Circumstances.................................................................................... 6 Increasing Islamist Militancy.................................................................................................... 7 Multiple Armed Islamist Uprisings..................................................................................... 8 Al Qaeda Presence .............................................................................................................. 9 Conflict in Western Pakistan and the Afghan Insurgency .................................................11 Questions About Pakistan’s Main Intelligence Agency .................................................... 16 U.S.-Pakistan Counterterrorism Cooperation.......................................................................... 18 Cross-Border Coordination and U.S. Military Action ...................................................... 21 Aerial Drone Attacks......................................................................................................... 22 The Mumbai Terrorist Attack and Deteriorated Relations With India .................................... 24 Pre-November 26 Engagement......................................................................................... 24 Terrorism in Mumbai and Islamabad’s Response............................................................. 26 Fallout for Bilateral Relations........................................................................................... 27 Implications for U.S. Interests .......................................................................................... 30 Selected Commentary on U.S. Policy Options ....................................................................... 30 Setting and Regional Relations ..................................................................................................... 32 Historical Setting..................................................................................................................... 32 Political Setting ....................................................................................................................... 33 Musharraf’s 1999 Coup d’Etat.......................................................................................... 34 The 2008 Democratic Revival .......................................................................................... 34 Regional Relations .................................................................................................................. 42 Pakistan-India Rivalry ...................................................................................................... 42 The “IPI” Pipeline Project ................................................................................................ 45 Afghanistan....................................................................................................................... 46 China................................................................................................................................. 47 Pakistan-U.S. Relations and Key Country Issues.......................................................................... 49 Terrorism................................................................................................................................. 49 Al Qaeda’s Resurgence in Pakistan .................................................................................. 52 Infiltration Into Afghanistan ............................................................................................. 53 Infiltration into Kashmir and India ................................................................................... 56 Domestic Terrorism........................................................................................................... 57 Other Security Issues............................................................................................................... 57 Pakistan-U.S. Security Cooperation.................................................................................. 57 Nuclear Weapons and Missile Proliferation...................................................................... 61 U.S. Nonproliferation Policy ............................................................................................ 66 Pakistan-India Tensions and the Kashmir Issue................................................................ 66 Baluchistan Unrest............................................................................................................ 68 Narcotics ..........................................................................................................................
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