Selected articles concerning Israel, published weekly by Suburban Orthodox Toras Chaim’s (Baltimore) Israel Action Committee Edited by Jerry Appelbaum ( [email protected] ) | Founding editor: Sheldon J. Berman Z”L

Issue 8 8 1 Volume 2 1 , Number 1 2 Parshas Vayikra March 20 , 20 2 1

As Israel’s Political Parties Fight for Role of Kingmaker, Religious - Secular Divide Comes to the Fore By Haviv Rettig Gur timesofisrael.com March 15, 2021 Two very different parties have found in each other lawmakers and some Haredi party activists sharing p hotos the perfect enemies. of emaciated bodies being carried on wheelbarrows during Eight days to election day, the race between the pro - the Holocaust. and anti - Netanyahu camps is close. So close, in fact, that The video clip of that line went viral on Hebrew - neither side can hope to piece together an effective language social media. Few noticed the exchange that government. followed, in which Liberman went on to explain If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu manages to something important about his campaign strategy — he eke out a slim majority, it will likely b e so slim that he will needs to boost support by driving secular voters to the find himself forced to cater to the whims of the most polls. right - wing lawmakers on the ballot. Netanyahu’s Challenged again by Asayag that he cannot push both opponents, meanwhile, theoretically led by Yair Lapid of Netanyahu and the Haredi parties out of government Yesh Atid, may well be too divided and diverse to produce simultaneously and will end up “hugging [Shas leader a manageable coa lition. Aryeh] Deri l ike in the good old days” to push out the Each side is looking for any way out of the deadlock. premier, Liberman made clear that his fight was with the Netanyahu has launched an unprecedented campaign for Haredi parties — his most profitable foils if his goal is to support from Arab voters and at the same time is pushing send secular people to the ballot box — not Netanyahu. far - right Otzma Yehudit into the Knesset. Lapid, Gideon “Listen,” Liberman responded, “The govern ment is Sa’ar and other leaders of t he anti - Netanyahu camp are the Haredim, it’s not Bibi. Bibi is a hostage.” working on finding a viable formula for unifying their “His only fight is to survive politically and legally. He’s disparate parties. willing to give everything,” he added, listing Ra’am leader Many other factions are trying to take advantage of the Mansour Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal as standoff in the hope of playing kingmaker after election potential coalition partners of the Likud head. day. The Islamist party Ra’am, for example , has detached Challenged again, this time by Berkovic, that the polls from the Arab - majority Joint List to mount its own run, nevertheless suggest Liberman will need either Likud or promising to deal with anyone who wins the election, even the Haredi parties to form a coalition, Liberman finally the disliked Netanyahu, in order to deliver budgets and offered a clear statement of a path out of the deadlock. government attention to its marginalized Bedouin and “In cities wi th a clear secular majority, a million people Arab constituents. failed to show up at the ballot box” in previous rounds of Meanwhile, the Russian - speaking secularist Yisrael voting, he said. “If a third of that number shows up, that’s Beytenu party, led by Avigdor Liberman, and the 10 seats, that’s a decisive win.” Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism, have “So you’re calling on secular people to vote?” adopted a different strategy. In tandem, the two have Berkovic asked. focused their campaigns over the past two weeks on e ach “You must call for all the secular people to vote,” other, building their final campaign push ahead of election Liberman replied. day on the ominous warning that the other is an existential “We call on everyone to vote,” said Asayag. threat to their constituents. Two - way street Wheelbarrows and landfills Many condemned Liberman’s landfill comment, from On Friday, in an interview with the Channel 12 talk Likud and Yamina, on the right, to Labor and Meretz on show hosted by Eyal Ber kovic and Ofira Asayag, the left. But Un ited Torah Judaism went further, much Liberman was asked if he would consider serving in a further. coalition with the ultra - Orthodox parties if it meant It pivoted its entire campaign on a dime, turning ousting Netanyahu. Liberman and his wheelbarrow into campaign posters and Which was more important, Asayag asked, “Sending videos, newspaper ads, tweets and photo ops. It has since Bibi [Netanyahu] packing or Avigdor [not sitting] with th e spoken about little else. Just as Liberman fou nd a perfect Haredim?” nemesis in them, they found one in him. His answer: “The Haredim together with Bibi in one On Sunday, UTJ’s Knesset members gathered around wheelbarrow to the nearest landfill.” a wheelbarrow for photographs, taking the opportunity to The comment drew a torrent of criticism over the label Liberman mentally ill and anti - Semitic, and to weekend, with accusations of anti - Semitism from Haredi demand he be prosecuted for incitement. Foc us o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 2

Libe rman “knows about garbage dumps,” party chief wrote on Twitter: “The coalition of Netanyahu, Smotrich, MK Moshe Gafni said at the photo op, “because he smells Deri, Gafni, and Abbas is a fundamentalist coalit ion that it all the time. He lives it.” wants to turn Israel into Iran and will put an end to the MK Israel Eichler added: “We’re not just talking about vision of Israel as a Zionist and liberal country. I suggest to simple bigotry of a crazed enemy, but about a concrete Gafni, Smotrich, and the rest of those partners, to reread threat and a life - threatening call to arms. Israel Police and Herzl’s book ‘The Jewish State,’ with an emphasis on the the state prosecution must investigate him on suspicion of chapter, ‘Theocracy.’” serious incitement against Haredi Jews.” It is the Haredi parties, he insists, who are inciting A Sunday campaign video addressed undecided voters, hatred, as when UTJ MK Yitzhak Pindrus insisted last asking, “Still debating who to vote for?” It played week that women soldiers, primarily Russian - speaking, Lib erman’s landfill clip and said: “Only a strong United who convert to Judaism in the IDF’s Orthodox Torah Judaism will leave this thing” — it wasn’t clear if conversion program remain “shiksas, ” a pejorative Yiddish “thing” meant the comment or the man — “in the term for non - Jewish women. television studios.” A United Torah Judaism newspaper ad featuring the Another video released the same day featured a face of Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, wheelbarrow alongside the wor ds, “Yvet [Liberman’s given published in Haredi newspapers on March 15, 2021. The Russian name], we found a wheelbarrow for the coming text reads: ‘Either he wheelbarrows us all to the gar bage term that can carry you from studio to studio” — dump, or we all run to vote [UTJ]. Beating the incitement suggesting that he will be spending the coming term not in at the ballot box!’ power, but in the opposition, with plenty of time for “’Shiksa’ soldiers, ‘Nazi’ cops and soldiers, ‘goyim’ television in terviews. Russians, ‘sucker’ secularists,” he wrote on Twitter on UTJ is preparing a formal incitement complaint Monday, referring to oft - heard slurs from Haredi activists against Liberman to the Central Elections Committee and over the years. “In these days of wild incitement by the has promised to propose a bill amending racism laws so he Haredim, there’s one party that tells the truth and doesn’t could be prosecuted for such comments in the future. try to ingratiate itself — this time we’re putting an end to Why has United Torah Judaism’s campaign become so the rule of Shas and United Torah Judaism.” consumed by Liberman’s comment, however indelicate or And as the Haredi parties tell it, it is Liberman who objectionable it may have been? seeks to destroy the ultra - Orthodox way of life. The answer is straightforward: UTJ is not threatened A startling ad placed by UTJ in Haredi newspapers on by Liberman. It hopes to be rescued by him. Monday showed Liberman’s face, a wheelbarrow and the The Haredi party has be en worried about its ballot - dire warning: “Either he wheelbarrows us all to the landfill, box prospects for some time because of intense frustration or we all run to vote [ UTJ].” felt by many of its voters over the party’s handling of the It urged: “Beat the incitement at the ballot box!” pandemic crisis. Many ultra - Orthodox believe their At core, Liberman and UTJ’s chief Moshe Gafni face community was unfairly singled out for criticism over the same problem. Their respective parties and broader fail ures to adhere to social distancing rules, and feel their political camps seem close to victory; nevertheless, they representatives were not there to defend them. have each remained maddeningly far from it for two long One campaign video last week tried to tackle the anger years. head - on, showing one MK after another explaining that Each is threatened from within their camp — they made mistakes, that “we accept the cr iticism,” and Liberman, from secularist challengers like Yesh Atid and “we’re not perfect.” others, UTJ, by the streaming of frustrated Haredi voters Now, eight days to the election, as if sent by the toward religious Zionism. Each badly needed a nemesis, a Almighty himself, Liberman has offered these much - threat to t he respective constituents’ way of life, to rally chastised MKs a chance to make up for past mistakes. the ranks and draw the apathetic out to the polls. Existential threats? Over the past few days, with wheelbarrows and The rhetoric has reached a fever pitch. accusations of “anti - Semitism” and “fundamentalism,” As Lib erman tells it, the Haredi parties, abetted by they have found in each other the answer to their troubl es. Netanyahu, are dead - set on destroying secular Israel. America’s Rejection of the Nuclear Deal Didn’t Get A day after the interview, on Saturday, Liberman Iran Closer to Developing the Bomb .

America’s Rejection of the Nuclear Deal Didn’t Get Iran Closer to Developing the Bom b By Jacob Nagel ynetnews.com March 13, 2021 Nor is Israeli opposition to the deal at fault. Israel's uncompromising battle against the Iran nuclear No one can take away the miraculous achievements d eal as presented in an interview last week. and years of devoted service to Israel's security of A., the After all, A. had a crucial role to play in this effort, led outgoing deputy head of Mossad. by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mossad Director On the other hand, I do not accept his position on Page 3 March 20, 2021 Focus on Israel

Yossi Cohen, the memb ers of the National Security weapons - grade materials, regardless of what the 2015 deal Council and other Israeli defense said. officials. Blaming Israel's conduct or Trump's withdrawal from Israel fought tirelessly to explain every fault, loophole the accord is abs urd. As Netanyahu warned then and U.S. and danger in the accord before it was signed, culminating Secretary of State Antony Blinken is doing now, Iran is in Netanyahu's 2015 address to Congress. With hindsight, merely months or even weeks from the bomb. the ext ent to which he was right it is undeniable. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivering a Israel and Mossad did all they could to persuade the speech during the 46th Regular Session of Human Rights U.S. to quit the agreement. Netanyahu's presentation of Council on Tuesday stolen archives from Iran's AMAD Project was just the A return to the 2015 deal will allow Tehran to install push needed to convince then - president Donald Tr ump new advanced infrastructure at its covert facilities and that the whole accord was based on lies and deceit and that obtain enough enriched uranium needed for the bomb. he needed to walk away from it as soon as possible. There is no way back to the old accord. Unfortunately, U.S. President Joe Biden's team is now The decision to halt the investigation in to Iran's working hard to return to this horrendous deal. possible military assets as part of the deal was another Israel and its allies are willing t o enter an accord, but huge mistake. Today it is clear that Tehran made sure that only if the problems with the 2015 deal are addressed. this clause was included. Returning to the original deal is simply impossible. Findings today show that Iran's road to getting the Without getting into a blame game, I do not accept bomb was far smoother than originally predicted. It is A.'s analysis. There are clear facts that show how the unsurprising that the IAEA did not discover this, given current situation differs to that of 2015, emphasizing why that they were simply unable to. the deal should have not been signed then and why it The UN agency's strict inspections were the single should not be revisited today. most viable and effective tool of the deal, but Tehran's One of these facts is Iran's advancement of its nuclear conduct over the past months and the shelving of a joi nt program since 2018, as well as new findings such as report by Germany, France and the UK show that even weapon development sho wn in the AMAD archive leak these inspections ultimately proved to be useless. and in reports from the UN over the past two years. That report was shelved to not hurt the possibility of For the signing of the deal to the American withdraw Iran returning to negotiations with the United States. from it three years later, Iran has used every lifting of The Islamic Republic's violations did not just go restrictions provided by the accord to push forward its against the 2015 deal, but against the Treaty on the Non - uranium enrichment, bolster its technological capabilities Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, jeopardizing the and produce advanced centrifuges. jurisdiction of the IAEA as a whole. Iran's nuclear water reactor in Arak an Iranian clergyman stands next to missiles and army The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has troops, during a manoeuvre, in an undisclose d location in stated that Tehran has yet to answer questions regarding Iran weapon systems development that was brought to light in As we all predicted, the deal failed, but not because of 2018 thanks to the archive leak. Israel, but rather because the accord failed to achieve the The continued production of advanced centrifuges very goals it set out to accomplish. (allowed b y the 2015 deal) essentially let Iran go It is clear that the old deal cannot achieve those goals underground with its operations. It later emerged that the now. Recommendations on r eturning to it and upgrading it accord did not take into consideration the storage of down the road are a serious misjudgment. materials and production methods, which led to a Iran has no incentive to return to talks after it was miscalculation in the time it would take Iran to reac h a gifted such a broken and one - sided deal. nuclear tipping point. Brig. Gen. (res.) Prof. Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Iran has managed to acquire the advanced Defense of Demo cracies and visiting professor at the Technion technological methods needed for quick production of Aerospace Engineering Faculty.

Wash ington attempts to quell Israel’s shadow war with Iran at sea By Yaakov Lappin jns.org March 15, 2021 Israel’s alleged ongoing disruptions of Iranian oil - reasonable to conclude that Washington is trying to lower smuggling to Syria, which enabled a terror financing tensions that it fears can spoil attempts to negotiate a new channel to Hezbollah, and Tehran’s resulting nuclear agreement with Tehran. ret aliation may have set off alarm bells in the Biden U.S. sources told The Wall Street Journal in recent administration ahead of new nuclear talks. days that Israel allegedly attacked 12 ships ille gally carrying Recent reports suggest that the United States is Iranian oil to Syria since 2019 using weapons such as naval disturbed by aspects of the Israeli - Iranian shadow war that mines to damage the vessels. is raging across the region — in this case, at sea. It s eems The report came just as signs of a possible escalation Focus o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 4 between Israel and Iran on the seas appeared, suggesting Strait of Hormuz and then proceeded to sail through a that the information was designed to sen d a signal to Israel variety of routes towards the Syrian coastline, where, still to cool down the alleged special operations at sea. at sea, they rendezvous with Syrian ships and transfer their The report surfaced close to the time that Iran accused oil cargo, or alternatively, d irectly dock at Syria’s Latakia or Israel of being behind an attack last week on an Iranian Tartus ports and unload their oil cargo. container ship in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, named as With these journeys forming a key part of Iran’s the Shar e K ord, causing a fire. radical axis financing, Israel may have decided that as part That attack came days after Israel said that Iran was of its campaign between the wars, it was time to disrupt behind an explosive attack on an Israeli - owned cargo ship, this Hezbolla h financing channel. the MV Helios Ray, in the Gulf of Oman. The Iranians, likely fed up with such operations, Israel’s alleged covert campaign at sea is part of a retaliated at the end of February by targeting the Israeli - much larger campaign, dubbed by the defense owned cargo ship, and Israel may have decided to boost its establishment as the “campaign between the wars,” own deterrence by targeting the Shar e Kord ship in designed to prevent the radical Iranian axis from building response. up its military and terrorist power in the region but to do ‘Part of Iranian pirate activities to circumvent so without crossing the threshold of regional war. sanctions’ It is a delicate bala ncing act that has enabled Israel to The resulting escalation dynamic appears to have set put the brakes on alarmingly ambitious Iranian schemes, off alarm bells in the Biden administration, likely resulting pioneered by the late Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ in the leaked information on this previously unknown Quds Force Gen. Qassem Soleimani, to use air routes, aspect of the campaign between th e wars. land routes and the sea to flood Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and A question that remains unanswered is how the other areas with precision - guided missiles, missile factories, ecological disaster caused by an oil spill off the Israeli well - armed militias and the creation of new “rings of fire” coastline in late February, which has been linked by Israel’s around Israel. Environment Protection Ministry to a ship illegally Jerusalem has created a powerful intelligence - gathering smuggling oil from Iran to Sy ria, fits into this picture. machine that is able to detect many of these activities i n Israel’s Environment Protection Minister Gila Gamliel real time and disrupt them, using an array of precision said Iran was behind the spill, accusing it of “ecological airstrikes, special operations, cyber technology and other terrorism,” though Israel’s defense establishment has not means. Most of these activities remain hidden from public confirmed that this is indeed the case. view. Meanwhile, dispe lling rumors that Israel itself was Cash payments from Damascus to Beirut accidentally responsible for the spill as part of its campaign So why have oil tankers that are moving Iranian oil to against Iranian oil tankers, Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Syria become an alleged target? Gantz firmly dismissed this theory. According to a recent analysis by Ynet’s veteran Presumably relying on an array of intelligence reports, military analyst Ron Ben Yishay, Iranian oil - smuggling to Gant z said on Sunday, “I can tell you emphatically that Syria began even before the Trump administration placed Israel is not responsible for the oil spill that caused the sancti ons on Iranian oil exports in May 2018 (when Trump considerable damage along the coast.” withdrew from the former nuclear agreement), and before The cause of the spill, therefore, remains unresolved. the United States slapped sanctions on Syrian President “We are moving into the water arena. This is one of Bashar Assad and his regime for its countless war crimes. the arenas of conflict between Iran and Israel,” Professor However, since May 2018, when the I ranians faced Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle restrictions on transferring funds through the international Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, financial network, they faced a new obstacle: How to get observed on Sunday. paid for smuggled oil to countries such as Syria? “This is part of the Iranian pirate activities at sea to They found a work - around: The Assad regime began circumvent sanctions and sell oil,” he said, adding that paying its oil debts dire ctly to Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Syria gain the return enabling Iran to launder its terror financing in new, benefit. convenient ways, and to continue its backing for The wider context, he said, is that Iran is gathering Hezbollah’s force build - up programs, according to Ben negotiating “bargaining chips” ahead of talks with Yishay. Washington. Describing the “Iranian para dox,” said Rabi, To get around America’s Caesar Act, which bans “The worse things are inside Iran the more they ‘purchase’ internationa l transactions with Syrian banks, as well as with bargaining chips on the outside.” Lebanese banks that work with their Syrian counterparts, As the region waits to see how Washington and the Assad regime was able to smuggle cash payments from Tehran engage, Israel’s defensive shadow war can be Damascus to Beirut with ease. expected to continue, even though it might be ad justed to As part of this scheme, oil tankers are loaded up at avoid angering America at this sensitive time. Iranian po rts in the Persian Gulf or at Qeshm island in the Page 5 March 20, 2021 Focus on Israel

Preventing a Hamas Victory in the Palestinian Elections By Michael Milstein washingtoninstitute.org March 5, 2021 They might not happen — but if they do, the terrorist the 2006 election. Mo st of all, a sharpening of internal group has an advantage . tensions and factionalism has appeared within Fatah, Today, th e Palestinians find themselves at the closest damaging its electoral potential and its public image, which point to holding an election since 2006, arriving here after was far from bright anyway. These divisions were the a decade and half of repeated failures in efforts at internal central source of Fatah’s failure in the 2006 elector al reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. In an contest. unprecedented move, election dates were s et last month: in Today, several such bones of internal contention stand May for the Palestine Legislative Council, and later this out. First, there is the attempt by Marwan Barghouti, year for the Palestinian Authority (PA) president and the Fatah`s prominent leader jailed for terrorism by Israel, to PLO National Council. Voter registration on the electoral run for PA president, which the PA top echelon is trying rolls has also been conducted, with a declared 93 percent to prevent. Second , there is the insistence by the camp of effect ive yield. As a result, members of the political class Mohamed Dahlan, Abu Mazen’s arch - rival who currently and the general public are increasingly anticipating and resides in the United Arab Emirates, to contest the expecting that these elections will actually take place. election as an independent slate. Third, there are the An unusual convergence of interests between PA strenuous efforts of Jibril Rajoub to carry out the ele ction president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and Hamas only as a means of paving his way to succeed Abu Mazen, enabled these steps toward elections. On one hand, Abu a campaign that aggravates tensions with other senior Mazen is interested in improving his standing with the new Fatah leaders who incline away from him and from the administration in Washington and strengthening his whole electoral process. Fourth, Nasser al - Kidwa, Fatah legitimacy at home. On the other, Hamas sees an Central Committee Member and Ar afat’s nephew, intends opportunity to improve civilian condi tions in Gaza while to set up his own separate parliamentary candidates list; al - reinforcing its position in Palestinian politics before a day Kidwa coordinates his moves with Barghouti. when Abu Mazen potentially leaves office. In sharp contrast, Hamas has demonstrated a unified Despite his indications otherwise, Abu Mazen is and confident front as it approaches the potential apparently not genuinely interested in actually bringing elections. For the time b eing, the movement allows a about election day. Instea d, he still believes he can stop the somewhat relaxed attitude towards its electoral process at any given moment. Nonetheless, the story of participation, clarifying that it might be represented by the election is gaining momentum in a way that increases “independent” personages identified with Hamas, much as its odds of realization, and as time passes, the step - by - step the Muslim Brotherhood once did in Tunisia and Jordan. increase in both internal and international p ressures to At the same time, Hamas makes it clear that this election move forward are making it harder to arrest the process. has no direct link to the Oslo peace process. Hamas has Furthermore, some problems that doomed previous asserted that an election does not commit it to recognize attempts at an election have been cleared away, and Hamas any existing political agreements with Israel or to make any is showing new willingness to comply with Abu Mazen’s concessions in the military domain . conditions to conduct the e lection in a purely proportional, Hamas keeps a constant wary eye on Israel, fearing phased system. Still, obstacles remain that are liable to that Israel will attempt to limit its activism in the West derail this process, and the elections are not a foregone Bank by, for example, arresting dozens of its leaders there, conclusion. Three central problems are particularly as occurred recently. To this point, Yahya Sinwar, the threatening for the prospect of elections: Hamas leader in Gaza, warned l ately that if Israel tries to The claim by both Hamas and the PA that their spoil an election in the Palestinian territories, then Hamas mutual commitment to free political prisoners in the West will act to spoil the upcoming Israeli election. Bank is not being fulfilled. At this stage, then, there are several main scenarios The tension that has emerged in recent days from PA that might play out: criticism of Hamas for its attempt to get involved in the Internal Political “Explosion” — This scena rio would PA - Egyptian deal to dev elop a natural gas field off the mean failure of the election effort in the wake of tensions Gaza coast ("Gaza Marine"). between the PA and Hamas, likely manifested as mutual The question of holding a Palestinian election in accusations of failure to fulfill their commitments. If this Jerusalem, which, once they understood that Israel would scenario plays out sooner, while expectations for the not authorize such an election in its own capital city, has election are stil l somewhat moderate, its effects will be until now been the main excu se for either side to pull back more limited. In addition, such a development could from holding Palestinian elections. actually make it easier for Abu Mazen to engage in a Despite all of these issues, electoral preparations by possible effort to resume a peace process with Israel. At both Hamas and Fatah are gathering steam. In this the same time, however, it would also crash Hamas’s context, signs point to a repeat of trends that characterized expectations, which could find expression in a tougher Focus o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 6 approach towards Fatah inside Gaza, along with deeper after the previous election — that this would become a apprehension about the persistence of civilian tribulations matter of restraining, integrating, and gradually there. transforming Hamas. But that claim has already been Failure Induced by Israel — This development could strongly refuted in the past, and at least for now there is no result from an intensive Israel i push against Hamas in the reason to expect otherwise in the future. West Bank, accompanied by a direct refusal to allow either In reality, the very notion that this election will really a vote in East Jerusalem, or Palestinian election officials’ take place remains foggy. And even if it does happen, there transit to Gaza. In their heart of hearts, many elements in is the growing sense that it would redound more to the Ramallah would probably prefer this outcome beca use it reputation of Hamas than that of Fatah. As such, the would exonerate Abu Mazen from responsibility for the prospect of an election will probably face new challenges election’s collapse. However, this development could also and even threats from the PA, Israel, and to a great extent cause armed confrontation between Israel and Hamas in the moderate Arab camp and the West as well. Gaza. Furthermore, this development could create political In the short term, failure to move forward with the tensions between Israel and the PA, potentially provoking election would only return the parties to where they were popular protests in the West Bank that could turn against around a month ago without causing major upheavals in Israel, the PA, or both. the Palestinian arena. However, to the extent t hat such Fatah Electoral Victory — At least in the current internal obstacles, including Israeli preemption, get closer moment, this development appears unlikely, although to the first scheduled election date of May 22, it will Israel, most of the Arab world, and the U.S. - led become harder and harder to abort the election. Moreover, international community would welcome it. Even with the internal and external repercussions would be stronger, international support, there is a low probability that Hamas and more like ly accompanied by political and security would ever agree to hand its rule in Gaza over to Abu skirmishes between Israel and the Palestinians, among the Mazen, which would mean losing what it perceives as Palestinians themselves, and between the international among its most important st rategic assets. community and both parties to the conflict. Hamas Electoral Victory — Currently, it is quite Therefore, looking ahead, it is already vital to establish difficult to assess the probability of this scenario due close consultation and coordination regarding this election largely to the lack of information on Hamas’s popularity in issue among all of the following actors: Israel, the PA, the the West Bank. Some public opinion polls show a slight main Arab actors, especially Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia advantage there for F atah, but their level of accuracy is and the UAE, and the international community, with the unclear, and, in any case, this variable is susceptible to United States in the l ead. Without this concerted effort, we rapid change. This situation could lead to an “Algerian are all likely to witness a replay of the 2006 election, a scenario” in which Abu Mazen would refuse to accept the process that will dramatically alter the very nature of election’s results, much as Algeria’s regime beh aved when Palestinian affairs by weakening the nationalist trend and Islamists won the election there in 1991. That could create strengthening the Islamist one under the le adership of enough internal tension to spark violent clashes between Hamas. Hamas and the PA in the West Bank, alongside popular The best, most urgent way to avoid repeating that protests which could threaten the stability of the Ramallah tragic mistake today would be to forge a fast, firm regime. In the e vent that Abu Mazen does accept this international consensus to prevent its recurrence. This electoral outcome, Hamas would probably enjoy a consensus would stipulate that Hamas could participate in strengthened foothold in the West Bank and may take the election only aft er it convincingly accepts the control over the PA. conditions previously agreed to by Israel, the PA, the Unity Government — This scenario could emerge United States and the entire Quartet, including Russia, the either from an electoral tie between Fatah and Hamas, or EU, and the UN. That means recognizing Israel, from a Hamas agreement to enter the government as renouncing violence, and accepting all previous partner rather than leader. That would mainly reflect Palestinian - Isr aeli political agreements. And if Hamas Hamas’s reluctance to assume full responsibility for continues to refuse, then it must bear the onus of aborting governance and its understanding that doing so would also the first Palestinian election in fifteen years. place it under growing internal and ex ternal pressure to So far, Hamas has shown little sign of swallowing recognize the political agreements with Israel, thus what it sees as a bitter pill, but that is partly because it has restricting its armed force and paramilitary operations. Still, been led to believe it never needs to do so. This is all the in this case, Hamas would be more able to entrench its more reason to conclude that the sooner these hold on the West Bank without making any meaningful constructive Quartet conditions are reaffirmed and concessions i n Gaza, all while under the protective cover enforced by all players, the better it will be for any of the PA. The latter is already trying to “clarify” — as it did prospect of genuine Palestinian dem ocracy and agreement during the failed unity government of 2006 - 2007, right with Israel .

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The U.S. Must Not Ignore Iranians’ Human Rights in Pursuit of a Nuclear Deal By Xiyue Wang hoover.org March 9, 2021 Learn from the example of John Paul II. The Obama administration believed that engaging the The Islamic Republic of Iran remains one of the Islamic Republic on the nuclear deal – formally known as world’s worst human right abusers: it has the highest the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – would executions per capita; it constantly crushes peaceful incentivize the regime to change its malign behavior. It was assembly and freedom of expression; and it harshly wishfully assumed that t he deal would foster more political persecutes human rights defenders and civil society tolerance and less human rights abuses. In reality, the activists. From the perspective of the Iranian regime, what regime doubled down on its repression of civil society, the West defines as Iran’s “human rights” problem is women’s activism, general freedom of expression, and actually a deadly serious political problem. It is about entrepreneurial endeavors that promoted closer business safeguarding the inviolability of Iran’s theocratic and ties with the West. The regime was worried that the authoritarian political system by denying civil and political JCPOA would lead to a liberalization that could be the freedom to its subjects. Yet, de spite the regime’s appalling beginning of the regime’s end. A cautious optimism among record of human rights abuses, the free world, of which many Iranians was nipped in the bud. the US claims moral leadership, has repeatedly failed to In May 2018, President Trump declared that the US stand up to it. For in the US policy calculation, human was withdrawing from the JCPOA. Having underscored rights in Iran must always give way to issues of higher the inadequacies of the deal, but failing to bring the regime or der, such as Iran’s nuclear file. to negotiate further, he re - imposed sanctions in order to During the Obama administration, US policy towards coerce the regime to negotiate a more comprehensive deal, Iran was laser - focused on preventing the development of or severely constrain its abili ty to destabilize the region. nuclear weapons. President Obama’s preoccupation was Although the Trump administration condemned Iran’s understandable: curbing Iran’s nuclear capabilities was human rights abuses at times, it was often seen as merely a good f or American and international security, and as a rhetorical posture. To the disappointment of many, singular objective it was achievable. For the Obama President Trump’s twelve preconditions for a new deal administration, nuclear negotiation with Iran took with Iran did not include human rights. precedence over everything else, including human rights. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure Many Iranians who looked to the US as the beaco n of campaign and unprecedented sanctions put Iran’s already liberty in their struggle for civil and political rights still troubled economy under further duress. Angered by fuel bitterly remember how they were abandoned in 2009. price increases in November 2019, disgruntled Iranians Millions of Iranians took to the streets of Tehran that year across the count ry again took to the streets. The regime to protest against the rigged election for President did not hesitate to respond violently. According to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s s econd term. President Obama Reuters, about 1,500 people were killed in the unrest – the kept silent when the security forces brutally cracked down largest since the Islamic Republic’s founding.3 While the on protestors, and later expressed only very restrained regime might have eventually had to bow to US pressure criticism against the regime’s violence, fearing a harsh and negotiate a truly comprehensive deal involving human response would jeopardize any chance of a potential rights, in the short term, it adopted a “maximum enga gement, although Iran during Ahmadinejad’s resistance” countermeasure. This meant weathering US presidency welcomed no such dialogue. sanctions through the sheer size of the Iranian economy In 2013, when Hassan Rouhani ascended to the and maintaining stringent contr ol on its citizens through Iranian presidency, he promised more nuclear transparency unrelenting repression. The regime hoped that – should and political tolerance. Yet it was evident that the regime, Donald Trump lose the 2020 election – a Democratic led by Supr eme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the hardliners administration would undo the “maximum pressure” surrounding him, had no interest in loosening their grip on policy and rejoin the JCPOA. society. Iran’s human rights record did not improve under Beset by external and internal crises, the re gime carried Rouhani’s so - called moderate presidency.1 As President out a number of high - profile executions in 2020 to deter Obama renewed his effort to push for nu clear talks, would - be challengers of the regime’s supremacy. Most Iranian - American scholar Ray Takeyh proposed that the notably, champion wrestler Navid Afkari was allegedly US include a human rights component in negotiations, as tortured and forced into confessing to fatally stabbing a had been done during the Helsinki Accords with the security guard during the 2017 - 18 protests that rocked the Soviet Union.2 Pressured by the US electoral cycle and the country. While his confession was never investigated, need to reach a deal be fore the end of his term, President Afkari was convicted, sentenced to death, and executed in Obama significantly lowered his expectations for the September. Afkari’s execution caused broad international negotiation. A Helsinki Accords style agreement with Iran opprobrium. In December, dissident journalist Ruh ollah was thus out of the question – the issue of human rights Zam, who was lured from France to Iraq, where he was was sacrificed for non - proliferation objectives yet again. kidnapped by the Iranian intelligence service, was Focus o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 8 condemned to death by Tehran’s Revolutionary Court for realize that promoting civil and political freedom in the his role in the 2017 - 18 protests. Zam was quickly hanged country is not just a moral imperative, but also vital to US despite widespread uproar from int ernational human rights national security and interest. activists. The executions of these two political offenders As seen in Iran following th e conclusion of the nuclear were theatrically staged to demonstrate the regime’s deal in 2015, Iran’s human rights condition is unlikely to determination to clamp down on any open expression of improve through Obama - style engagement. On the discontent by Iranians, both in the country and abroad. contrary, such engagement tends to backfire and intensify The regime ’s brutality elicited limited censure from the regime’s malign behavior. Therefore, the United States Western governments. It took widespread outcry on social shoul d instead maintain moral solidarity with freedom - media for a business forum scheduled to take place two seeking Iranians and implement measures against the days after Zam’s execution to be canceled, as top regime for its human rights abuses. A good start would be European diplomats were scheduled to attend and to establish a congressional commission to monitor human pro mote European investment in Iran. rights violations in Iran and provide ma terial and moral During his campaign and after his election, President support to Iran’s civil and political activists. Moreover, the Biden has declared an unequivocal intention to restore the United States should impose targeted sanctions, through nuclear deal, although he also concedes the need to the Magnitsky Act, on Iranian entities and individuals strengthen it. He has not strayed from calling out the involved in such abuses. re gime’s human rights violations. However, neither the By underscoring political freedom and hu man rights in president nor his foreign policy officials have articulated Iran, the US can strengthen the agency of the Iranian how the administration will engage the regime in people, at the expense of the regime, in determining the addressing other concerns about its behavior, including fate of their country. More political freedom would help human rights, if the US returns to the JCPOA. By doing so prevent the regime from exercising its dictatorial malice the administration will relinquish its most effective inside and outsi de Iran. This is the only way in which the leverage, i.e. the banking and oil sanctions that have US can push Iran towards a more responsible role in the pushed the regime to the brink of bankruptcy. international community. Appeasing the regime by giving The prospect of the US being able to take a stand in to its extortion, nuclear or otherwise, is a road to failure. against Iran’s human rights abu ses appears bleak. In spite This work cannot be done overnight. It requires an of objections from human rights activists and others for enduring political commitment to create and implement an his appeasement views, Robert Malley was picked by effective strategy. Regardless of the challenges, American President Biden as his Special Envoy for Iran. As the leaders should not hesitate to undertake such a task. They Iranian Parliament presses the US for a deadline to lift need only be reminded of Pope John Paul II’s message in sanctions , President Biden’s National Security Adviser, 1978 to t he oppressed people behind the Iron Curtain: “Be Jake Sullivan, has also announced an accelerated timeline not afraid!” This simple message inspired and galvanized for reviving the JCPOA. Such announcements echo millions, in the Pope’s native Poland, to defy the President Obama’s policy toward Iran, when curbing communist dictatorship by demanding civil and political proliferation outweighed everything else. If the Bid en rights. It eventually helped to bring about , not only the end administration adopts this stance, the issue of human of communist rule in Poland, but also the total collapse of rights in Iran will likely never go beyond the margin of US communism in Eastern Europe. policy debates. The Iranian regime’s human rights Mr. Xiyue is a Jeane Kirkpatrick fellow at the American Enterprise violations may well be subordinated to the utilitarian Institute and a Ph.D. candidate in history at Princeton University. “higher good” and relegated once m ore to mere lip service He was impris oned in Iran from Aug . 7, 2016, to Dec . 7, 2019. from the US government. American leadership needs to Visit suburbanorthodox.or g for the current issue .

The Merits, and Costs, of Israel’s Vaccines - for - Hostages Deal By Micky Aharonson jiss.org.il March 3, 2021 And how it connects to the quest for the remains of a than US $1 million from Israel to finance the delivery of legendary Israeli spy. Russian COVID - 19 vaccines to Syria. Last week Israel concluded a deal with Syria, via Russia’s vaccine, Sputnik V, bears symbolic, political Russia, to return an Israeli woman who crossed the border and economic significance. As a result of the prestige of to Syria earlier this month. In exchange, Israel returned having been the first COVID - 19 vaccine to be approved in two Syrian she pherds who crossed into Israel this month the world, the economic gains involved and for other and agreed on the early release of a Golan Heights woman reasons, Sputnik V is providing new global leverage for who had been convicted of incitement. However, all the Russia in a world desperate for solutions to the pandemic. above was the less controversial part of the deal. It was Thi s is particularly significant because Russia’s current later revealed by the media (and at first ce nsored by Israel economic condition does not allow Moscow to throw while officially denied by Syria) that Russia received more money around easily. Therefore, Russia often uses what is known as “technical - military cooperation,” that is, selling Page 9 March 20, 2021 Focus on Israel defense products or providing oth er military assistance precedent and the starting point for future negotiations of such as advisers to increase its international presence. The this kind. vaccine provides meaningful soft power leverage that is However, all options considered, the deal seems to be perceived far more favorably by the international less costly for Israel in terms of public support, e specially community than military outreach. While Russia’s military during an election period. Israelis traditionally support cooperat ion is mostly restricted to non - Western countries, doing whatever necessary to “bring the boys back home,” the vaccine is gradually attracting the interest of leading whether live soldiers or the bodies of warriors held by the Western countries such as Germany (Germany’s use of enemy. This approach is rooted in Judaism and Israeli Sputnik V, however, depends on the vaccine’s approval by national - communal sentiment of mutual responsibility. the relevant European regulatory aut hority). The Israeli/Russian/Syrian deal seems more reasonable If media reports about the deal are accurate, the deal than a trade involving the release of numerous Palestinian culminated in a positive result for the three parties prisoners held in Israel, as has happened in previous involved, yet Russia emerged as the winner. First, it exchanges of this kind. In the past, thousands of pri soners, managed to free an Israeli woman and successfully broker including some with blood on their hands, were released in a deal between regional foe s, which solidifies its position as exchange for even a single Israeli hostage. This drew a major player and intermediary in the Middle East. considerable criticism from the Israeli public (which Furthermore, it managed to negotiate an agreement simultaneously celebrated the return of the hostage). In between an American ally, Israel, and the sanctioned, this respect, the deal s tresses Russia’s and Syria’s pragmatic pariah Syria. In practice, the agreement demonstrates approach (which was rewarded), as opposed to the Russia’s g ood connections with conflicting parties in the stalemate with Hamas in Gaza. Hamas still presents region, Israel and Syria, and reflects the success of its excessive demands in the spirit of previous agreements strategy of maintaining good relations with all parties to a mentioned above, yet the Israeli public is less and less conflict. Symbolically, this deal is not in the spirit of the willi ng to accept disproportionate deals. latest American sanctions, based on the 2019 Caesar Act, The current deal with Syria was described by official that restrict international parties from conducting Israeli spokesmen as humanitarian, and followed two other transactions or striking agreements with the Syrian regime. such deals with Russian involvement. The was the 2019 Israel appears to have done exactly that, although in the return of the remains of an Israeli soldier from Syri a, name of a humanitarian cause. Furthermore, it was which the Russians obtained while risking their soldiers’ conduc ted through another target of US sanctions — lives. Second was the release of an Israeli woman detained Russia — that is severely criticized by the United States in Russia following allegations of drug trafficking. and the West for its human rights practices and malign However, unlike these two previous cases, where nothing subversive involvement in the affairs of other states was known officially to hav e been given to Russia directly through cyberattacks and other means. for its humanitarian assistance, the current Russian gesture The ne w American administration didn’t comment on came with a price tag. It is reasonable to assume that the deal, at least not publicly. This might reflect Syria’s low previous Russian involvement was not free either and may priority on the Biden administration’s agenda. The muted have involved expectations from the Russian side fo r American response could also suggest that other US allies constructive Israeli assistance, perhaps with regard to in the Middle East can coordinate with Russia on Washington. In case such expectations have not been met, humanitarian issues (a broadly interpreted term) in Syria it is realistic to assume Russia demanded an immediate, without criticism or repercussions from the US concrete compensation for its efforts. administration. Russia seems keen to assume the position of an From an Israeli perspective, the reported covert deal intermediary between Israel and Syria. A Russian TV of payment for vaccines was referred to by many critics channel just aired a new documentary apparently showing and much of the Israeli media as Syrian/Russian extortion. Eli Cohen, a legendary Israeli spy who was hanged in Syria Accordingly, its leakage to the media embarrassed the in 1965 and whose remains are still in Syria. The Israeli government and drew publi c discontent in some documentary was shot by the Russian mi litary attache in Israeli circles. Many questioned the reasoning behind Syria at the time. Notably, it was released just days after the Israeli willingness to pay for vaccinations destined for an deal that brought the Israeli woman back from Syria. enemy state and attributed the motivations behind the deal For Israel, the recent deal is the latest example of the to electoral and not national considerations (general strategic and tactical benefits of the continued election s are to take place in Israel next month). In coordination in the Syrian arena with Russia that addition, the Israeli government was criticized for its demonstrated Moscow’s readiness to act constructively, inability, in the context of vaccine diplomacy, to conclude although not for free. The question that follows — the ongoing effort to bring back two Israeli citizens and assuming Russia is willing and able to advance the strategic the bodies of two Israeli soldiers h eld by Hamas in Gaza. interests of Israel (and its allies in the Middle East ) in Syria Others criticized the deal because it is likely to set a — is what the cost would be to limit Iranian military expansion and arms smuggling there.

Arab - Israel conflict: Palestinian peace must rest on international law By Mary Robinson ft.com March 15 , 2021 ICC decision to investigate Hamas and Israel has The ruling has implications for both parties. The implicat ions for both sides. settlement of the occupying power’s citizens in the International law is the bedrock on which the rules - occupied territories is deemed to b e a “grave breach” of based multilateral system rests. Full adherence to its the Geneva Conventions and a war crime, but so too is the precepts by all UN member states is essential in efforts to indiscriminate firing of missiles at civilians, as often resolve many intractable conflicts, including that between perpetrated by Hamas and other militants in the Gaza Israel and the Palestinians. Strip. In this regard, the International Criminal Court’s But whereas the Palestinian Authority and Hamas decision to open an investigation into the situation in have welco med the ICC rulings, Israel has refused to co - Palestine is significant. It follows an earlier ICC ruling that operate and the US strongly opposes the decision. US the court has jurisdiction over the Palestinian territories sanctions on ICC prosecutors imposed by the Trump Israe l has occupied since 1967. administration also remain in place. International humanitarian and human rights law is The international community has a responsibility to today threatened from many directions and undermined by step up and endor se the court’s rulings ahead of upcoming a growing culture of impunity, from Syria and Yemen to Israeli and Palestinian elections. While Israel is facing its South Sudan and the Sahel. For this to end, credible fourth election in two years, it is the first time for 15 years mechanisms of accountability are crucial. that Palestinian voters will go to the polls. In 2006, the That is why the ICC ruling, which paves the way for victory of Hamas saw the resul ts rejected by its Palestinian investigations into alleged war crimes committed by rival Fatah, Israel and many other states. individuals in the Palestinian occupied territories, could Respect for election results after a free and fair prove to be so consequential. Under the Trump campaign and respect for the rule of law are two sides of administration, r espect for international law was the same coin. States that champion democracy as an superseded by unilateral and partisan policy shifts, integral part of the ir foreign policies should be consistent including US alignment with Israel in its argument that the in their application. The EU should use its economic legal status of the occupied Palestinian territories is merely leverage and urge Israel to permit voting to take place in “disputed”. those parts of East Jerusalem that lie beyond the pre - 1967 That shift gave cover to the conti nuing construction Green Line. of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem The Israeli - Palestinian conflic t is as old as the UN — the biggest threat to the two - state solution and a itself. The international community’s efforts must focus flagrant violation of international law. It also helped justify first on ensuring an end to the occupation. I have seen the extension of Israeli domestic law to the 650,000 Jews directly the misery and injustice inflicted by the occupation liv ing in the occupied Palestinian territories. on ordinary Palestinians, as well as the tragic impact of This de facto establishment of a dual legal regime r ocket and terror attacks on Israeli civilians. based on religion and ethnicity has led some Israeli and Both peoples deserve to live in peace and justice. The international lawyers and human rights groups to assert ICC ruling and forthcoming elections offer steps towards that the situation is akin to apartheid. The I CC ruling and this goal, if leaders on each side have the courage to seize the change of US administration now afford an the moment. opportunity to reassert the primacy of international law. Ms. Robinson is a form er UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and chair of The Elders.

A country divided: Ten years of war have broken Syria into pieces By The Economist economist.com March 13, 2021 Will it ever be whole again? profitable to sell wheat abroad, he says. “The politicians The price of food has soared in Syria, leaving many of are starving the people.” its people at risk of going hungry. Yet from his office in A decade ago Mr Assad launched a war on his people Qamishli, in the north - east, a trader describes how officials rather than accept their demands for democratic reforms. make it hard to bring wheat to market. His lorries must Hundreds of thousands have died in the conflict, which cross sc ores of checkpoints on their way to Damascus, the drew in foreign powers and destroyed much of the capital. Most demand fees. Kurdish forces charge by the country. Half of the pre - war population of 22m has been tonne at the de facto border between the territory they displaced. Today a patchwork of agreements involving control and that of President Bashar al - Assad. America, Iran, Russia and Turkey limits the fighting. On the other side the Fourth Armoured Division, Syrians travel the country to study, shop and visit relatives. controlled by the president’s brother, takes $3,000 per But it is divided into enclaves, each with a foreign load. The trader must also bribe officials in Damascus and protector. Local administrations are becoming entrenched. support government causes, lest he be detained as a They have their own militias, run their own economies and terrorist. Sometimes the crossings are closed because one often favour one ethnicity or sect. “We’re seeing t he side wants to squeeze the othe r. It is easier and more Balkanisation of Syria,” says a un official. Page 11 March 20, 2021 Focus on Israel

Mr Assad’s men have regained most big cities and from Deir ez - Zor, in the east. hold around 60% of the land, up from around 30% in In the portion of Syria controlled by the Kurds, in the 2014 (see map). The Assad family has ruled Syria for over north - east, locals have ditched Arabic for Kurdish and the half a century. (Bashar’s father, Hafez, led befor e him.) A dollar is preferred. Syrians from outside the enclave sham election in May or June, if it is held, would seeking residency need a local sponsor. The Kurdish undoubtedly net the president a fourth seven - year term. authorities do not like dissent either. Their forces hound But these are pyrrhic victories. The Syrian economy is critics and dragoon young people (Arabs included) into in worse shape than at any time in the past decade. The service. The region is suffering along with the rest of the Syrian pound trades at about 1% of its pre - war value in country, but at least it has oil — and American protection. dollars on the black market (see chart). Mr Assad’s It sells the black stuff and wheat to Iraq. So t he Kurdish government can afford to pay civil servants only $15 a administration in Syria can afford to pay salaries that are month. Across the country people spend hours queuing much higher than those in Mr Assad’s territory. for petrol. The causes of the crisis are many, including war, Reconstruction material arrives from abroad. A plant corrup tion, covid - related restrictions, American sanctions refining vegetable oil opened last month, providing and the collapse of Lebanon’s banks, where rich Syrians hundreds of new jobs. stashed their cash. Mr Assad’s main allies in the war, Iran Turkey has long feared that Syria’s Kurds would and Russia, offer little help — in part because they are encourage its own Kurdish separatists. So since 2016 it has suffering, too. launched offensives inside Syria, taking its north - western Mr Assad has no answers. In speeches he often corner and strips along the border. These areas have been ignores Syria’s big problems. It was announced that he and largely cleared of Kurds and handed over to Sunni Arab his wife, Asma, recently tested positive for covid - 19. There rebels who share the Islamist leanings of Recep Tayyip has been a sharp rise in infections since mid - February. But Erdogan, Turkey’s president. Local officials are paid by only half of Syria’s hospitals are fully funct ional. And even Turkey, which also facilitates reconstruction. The the country’s vaccination plans are divided, with territories use the Turkish lira and have been hooked up to opposition groups negotiating separately with donors for the electricity gri d that serves southern Turkey. A un jabs. Mr Assad seems more concerned with keeping his official likens the situation to northern Cyprus, which people, rather than the virus, in check. His snoops look for Turkey invaded in 1974 and still controls. any hint of dissent . An otherwise - loyal journalist who A more pragmatic Syrian president might have tried to wrote about hunger on Facebook was recently jailed. cut deals with regional authorities, devolving power in an Travel beyond the capital and Mr Assad’s government attempt to keep the country unified. But Mr Assad fears looks less in charge, even in the areas he nominally compromise will be taken as a sign of weakness, so instead controls. Russian troops operate unchecked. Iranian - he threatens more war. In speeches he has revived his backed mili tias control the borders between regime - held father’s old tropes about the glories of Arab and Islamic areas and Iraq and Lebanon. Israel drops bombs on the civilisations — to the consternation of minority groups. militias from above. Syrians, meanwhile, look to their State broadcasters denounce Syrians outside regime - held ethnic or sectarian brethren for the type of support that areas as terrorists and fifth - columnists. On March 1st the the government once provided. Druze tribes i n the south, parliament in Damascus ratified a law stripping citizenship Arab ones in the east and even Mr Assad’s own Alawite from anyone who fails to renew their identity card after ten sect on the coast increasingly fend for themselves. Clashes ye ars. It is aimed at those who have fled or broken free of between groups are common. “If an Alawite comes here Mr Assad’s rule. Many of them would like to return, but unarmed and alone, he’ll be killed,” says an Arab elder also want to see someone else in charge.

After More Than Half a Century of Reluctance, the Druze of the Golan Are Embracing Israel By Jonathan Shamir haaretz.com March 15, 2021 As civil war rages in Syria, social pressure among Druze - majority town’s other main centerpiece, which Druze fades. commemorates the local uprising against French A recently unveiled statue perched on a plinth under colonialism in the 1920s. The Syrian flag still appears on the towering Mount Hermon holds a secret. When the monument’s outstretched bronze sword from ti me to approached from the side facing Israel, the single eye on time, and it was at this site in 1981 that the Druze first Aiman Halabi’s artwork is firmly shut. But when seen from held a public burning of the mandatory Israeli ID cards – a a second angle, facing toward Syria, the eye is wide open. defiant and ultimately successful rejection of the Any passerby would likely see both profiles in a single day, annexation law of that same year. and this Janus - like sculpture perfectly encapsulates the Syria’s civil war, however, has ushered in a s ea change predicament among the Druze community of Majdal and blurred the horizon for those who saw their future in Shams and four smaller “Syrian” villages in the Israeli Syria. On the 10 - year anniversary of the war’s beginning, Golan Heights. the protracted conflict has left as many as 600,000 Syrians The artwork also presents a stark contrast to the dead and 12 million displaced. The situation is no better Focus o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 12 for those wh o stayed behind: The World Food Program 2017 for the development of Druze regional councils, warned last month that up to 60 percent of the populace is which she believes pulled the community toward Israel. at risk of hunger, bread is rationed and power is unreliable, The younger generation, in particular, has different and President Bashar Assad’s violent, authoritarian rule priorities, she says. “The Druze in the Golan Heights persists, propped up by overseas power s. experience security and prosperity: quality of life, Wael Tarabieh, a 53 - year - old local artist who also education, employment. At the end of the day, this is works at the town’s Al - Marsad human rights center, what’s really important to them – and this is what they find admits that after the disintegration of the social fabric of in I srael.” Syria, consciously or unconsciously the local Druze The war also impacted the community’s economy. population doubts it will ever return to Syrian rule. Druze farmers used to export their apples to Syria, with Israel, he argues, has capitalized on this new reality. the trade peaking at 18,000 tons annually in 2013, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s diplomatic pushes that’s since ground to a painful halt. The practice – finally saw then - U.S. President Donald Trump recognize essentially trading with an enemy s tate – was facilitated by Israeli sovereignty over the Golan in 2019, while the the International Committee of the Red Cross as a Jewish population has jumped by a third over the past humanitarian mission. Assad’s continued support of the decade. According to data gathered by Al - Marsad, Jews apple industry also managed to harvest support from some now account for about half of the mountainous region’s local farmers, but the situation swiftly became untenable. 54,000 population. “We used to transport large quantities of apples to Roadblock to Damascus Syria for farmers in the Golan until 2013. We stopped As the fledgling protests in Daraa metastasized into doing it after the civil war broke out and the situation in full - scale national collapse in 2011, the connections Syria meant it was no longer possible,” an ICRC between the Golan Heights and Syria followed suit. And spokesman told Haaretz. “We had a large family link s though the politics of the civil war divided members of the program for Druze families spread between the Golan Golan’s Druze community, they both shared the same fate: Heights and Syria, including for weddings, pilgrimages and to be completely isolated from their motherland. students. This has mostly stopped as the Quneitra crossing T he Druze community, a historic offshoot of Islam point is now closed,” he adds. with its own set of cultural and religious traditions, has Detached from their motherland, many Druze have historically pledged its loyalty to the ruling power. But had t o orientate themselves to their erstwhile “enemy.” while Druze in the Galilee region to the south have been a One man in his thirties, Majdi, doesn’t state a preference, loyal minority who serve in the Israel Defense Forces and but describes the dramatic transformation over the last are part - and - parcel of Israeli society, the Druze on the decade as hostility has turned to begrudging acquiescence. Golan historically looked eastward. The local community used to kn ow everyone who In the past, free tuition and monthly stipends from the took Israeli citizenship, and these people would be Syrian government lured thousands of Druze to study in ostracized, he recounts. When you encountered them at Syria. However, after the war began, enrolment ground to weddings, funerals or in the streets, they would be a halt. Hundreds or even thousands of Golan Druze had shunned. graduated from Syrian universities, but those who were The situation is different today, however. “It’s much studying at Damascus University when the war broke out more normal,” he sa ys: 20.6 percent of the Syrian transferred to universities in Tel Aviv and Haifa. communities in the Golan Heights held an Israeli passport Roaa Khat er, who was director of the Education in March 2018, according to data from Israel’s Interior Department in the Druze village of Mas’ade for most of Ministry acquired by Al - Marsad, and the rate of the past decade, says the civil war has had a “significant” applications for citizenship spiked since the onset of the impact on the identity of the younger generation. war. The younger generation, in particular, knows Syria The local education system was always run in only from stories but Israel from experience. Given all of accordan ce with the Israeli Education Ministry’s Druze this, the social stigma is slowly dissipating. and Circassian syllabus, but the standard of Hebrew “could No more fence - sitting not serve them academically,” she says. Khater took the Not everybody in the community has been resistant or decision to establish additional Hebrew classes for even reluctant to embra ce Israel. Khater, for one, decided youngsters in Mas’ade to help prepare them for university to take Israeli citizenship. “Either you adapt to the reality, studies in Israel, she notes, “because we had no other or you continue to feel sorry for yourself,” she says, choice.” adding: “If I want to be part of Israeli society, I need to be In the immediate years following the start of the war, proud of my nationality.” the numbers of students from the Golan Heights studying Reclining in his chair in his Majdal Shams office in Israeli universities spiked and many then opted to work plastered with certificates, lawyer Kifah Johary, 36, is in Isr ael, she says. another Druze who took citizenship. “I cannot tell myself The government, meanwhile, increased investment in I’m not Israeli,” he says, adding that he never regretted his the area, with a multimillion - shekel plan between 2014 and decision in 2013. Page 13 March 20, 2021 Focus on Israel

Johary is quick to boast that he is the only person in 50 years that the land would be returned to Syria, people town with a picture of Shimon Peres hanging on his wall. would choose to live here. There is a long silence, When he met the then - president, he believed that politics punctuated by a crow’s call. “Because of that – because of was a corrupt game. Peres told him that “to change the crow,” he says finally. “How many vehicles have something, you need to get involved and change from passed through here since we started having this within. ” conversation? The quality of life here is much better.” This brief encounter shaped his approach to politics: Merom Golan is home to 86 - year - old Yehuda Harel, Johary was part of a group of Druze lawyers who the founder of the area’s first kibbutz and a former petitioned the Israeli Supreme Court to hold municipal lawmaker. The kibbutz was set up mere weeks after Israel’s elections in the Golan, which eventually took place in victory in the Six - Day War of June 1967, in order to 2018. He ran but was forced to withdraw du e to what he ensure Israel wouldn’t relinquish the territory, Harel tells calls “social pressure.” Haaretz. The election led to mass opposition and protests over From the perspective of international law, there is no what the Druze community viewed as an imposition of difference between the Jewish population in Merom Golan Israeli sovereignty on their territory. But while barely 2 and the West Bank, but using the word “se ttler” to percent voted, Johary expresses satisfaction. “The tr ain is describe a Jew in the Golan Heights would sound like a out of the station,” he says. gross misnomer to most Israelis. Harel points to a Johary recalls a sit - down with a group of nine friends concerted campaign to win the hearts and minds of Israelis prior to the civil war, in which he told everyone to place a – the “branding” of the Golan with its nature trails and its piece of paper in a hat to state if they would rather be vineyards – and cont rasts the mostly secular settlement under Israeli or Syrian rule: seven preferred Israel and just with what he perceived as “religious fanaticism” in the two opted for Syria, he says. “Only a minority would speak West Bank. publicly, but the silent majority wants to stay. His wife Tzipora interrupts him to sum up the “There’s no doubt that events in Syria have accelerated situation: “We came with ideology, but it’s not about that the process,” he adds, deadpan. anymore. It’s about the atmosphere.” Johary’s wholehearted embrace of Israel is s till a Yehuda Hare l concedes that there was “a real chance” minority position, but the phenomenon he describes is of the Golan returning to Syrian control under the visible below the surface. In private conversations with governments of Yitzhak Rabin and Peres. Harel, a close half a dozen people in their twenties and thirties, a new confidant of Rabin, said he always “acted against it,” but reality becomes evident: some will marry Druze from the notes that the situation is totally different now . Galilee area, and theref ore their children will have an Dr. Nir Boms, a research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Israeli ID – why resist any longer? Israel bars noncitizens Center at Tel Aviv University and leading Israeli expert on from certain university scholarships – why pay more Syria, concurs. Today, he says, “No one in the Israeli money? The younger generation – like everywhere in the establishment is seriously thinking about returning the world – has a thirst for travel. Instead of applying for a Golan Heights to Syria.” Besides , other regional visa for each trip with a laissez - passer, why not just apply geopolitical developments have been pivotal to changing for an Israeli passport? Israel’s calculations. “You can’t talk about the Golan The crow calling without Iran and Hezbollah,” Boms adds. Despite the reverberations in neighboring Druze Resigned to Israel, but not as Israelis communities, the Jewish population of the Golan seem The quiet confidence of the Israelis in the regi on largely unperturbed – both by living in a territor y most of remains a sharp contrast to the resigned inevitability that the international community still regards as occupied land increasingly pervades the local Druze population. Last and living cheek - by - jowl to a brutal civil war. month, the Druze held an annual event to mark the 1981 About half an hour south of Majdal Shams, the coffee protest against Israeli annexation, but sources say the shop in the Ein Zivan kibbutz is straight out of Tel Aviv: numbers are dwindling each year. “Let’s just say that, hipsters with flowers in their hair, crumbling croissants lately, not as many people are going,” one person notes. oozing with pistachio cream and a woman reclining in her As the Druze increasingly turn to Israel, another car seat, a joint jutting fro m her lips. There is one key critical question emerges: will the community become like difference with Tel Aviv over than the legal status: just the Galilee Druze or will they perhaps align with their over a mile northeast is the Syrian border city of Quneitra, other A rab neighbors? Will they be hanging photographs which was struck by the Israeli air force just days earlier. of Peres on their wall, or will a Palestinian flag replace the The waitress, however, says she barely noticed. “We try to Syrian one? ignore it,” she shrugs. Wayl Shaer, 31, says his experiences studying in Haifa Outside Trump Heights (Ramat Trump), a man in a have introduced him to Palestinian Israelis, who have construction vehicle is initially guarded when approached helped shaped his identi ty. Though originally from Majdal by Haaretz. Etai, from neighboring Sha’al, soon opens up Shams, he says he is now more familiar with Palestinian about why, despite the threat at several intervals in the last than Syrian culture. He is even one of the leaders of the Focus o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 14

Haifa chapter of a Palestinian group, Right to Movement, Golan because she “wanted to grow” and “move on” which uses running to highlight the basic human rig ht to beyond the confines of her town. “It’s easier to express freedom of movement. He proudly displays a Palestinian your joys and anger in your mother tongue,” she adds, but flag in his bedroom. also expresses a strong affinity to people she has met since The linguistic and cultural connection, as well as the sta rting her high - tech job in Tel Aviv. enduring embers of pan - Arab solidarity, have seen this Shaer, however, concedes that these examples are connection emerge in other spheres. Unmoored from their probably outliers. “Identity is changing. In 20 years, homeland , Golan Heights bands such as TootArd and everyone [in the Golan] will probably be Israeli,” he says. Hawa Dafi play at venues in the West Bank and Palestinian On a visit to his family home in Majdal Shams, the music festivals. In the darkest days of the Syrian civil war, hous e is brimming with siblings and their children. Shaer Wael Tarabieh’s cultural projects moved away from Syria introduces Haaretz and other guests to his 4 - year - old and attempted to familiarize local stu dents with Palestinian nephew, Ward, who is initially bashful but eventually culture. proudly presents us with the biscuits he just baked with his He also identifies what he sees as parallels between the grandmother. After heaping praise on him, this two experiences under Israeli rule: Despite making up international delegation is introduced to the boy: she is about half of the population in the Golan Heights, the Russian, he is French, and this man is from England. Druze own just 4.8 percent of its land, Al - Marsad found, His young eyes are unmoved. We ask him where he is a nd face discrimination in access to resources such as from. The boy stutters for a long time as the group awaits water. “The occupation will always serve itself,” Tarabieh his answer: “Majdal S hams,” he says eventually, and heads sighs. back into the warmth of the house. Others try to stay away from national politics. “He’ll also probably be Israeli in the future,” Shaer “Palestinians are not different from us in many ways,” says sighs. “But I’ll try to teach him otherwise.” Shefaa Abu Jabal, who identi fies as Syrian but left the

Why South Africa Is Punishing a Chief Justice for Standing Up for Israel By Milton Shain businesslive.co.za March 8, 2021 The case of Mogoeng Mogoeng. Jewish state is at the centre of a vast conspiracy, Legal experts will have to debate the possible nef ariously manipulating global and domestic politics and contraventions of the judicial code made by chief jus tice finance. In the words of Martin Jansen, a member of the Mogoeng Mogoeng in his webinar comments on the Palestine Solidarity Committee, “the powerful tentacles of Israel - Palestine conflict. Zionist power and influences reach into the commanding However, what seems to be drowned out by the heights of our economy and the ANC government surrounding noise is the vehemence with which his words through business arrangements and patronage, including were greeted at the outset, as opposed to the relative President Zuma and family members.” silence around his co mments on the Covid - 19 vaccine — Many SA human rights - orientated elites — black and not to mention the unusual alacrity with which the judicial white, Christian and Muslim — consider Zionism conduct committee has acted on the matter. (essentially a 19th century ethno - national movement) to be A mere few hours after the chief justice’s criticism of illegitimate. In fact, there is little empathy for ethnic our government’s lopsided attitude towards the Israel - polities in SA thought today — informed, in the words of Palestine problem the ANC called on the speaker of historian Hermann Giliomee, by a “dogmatic or parliament to censure him. Foreign minister Naledi Pandor intransigent universalism”. viewed his comments “with great dismay”, while Mandla “Its point of departure,” he writes, “is that race or Mandela apoplectically called on Mogoeng to retract his ethnic ity as a principle of social organisation is essentially support for “apartheid Israel”. Should we be su rprised? irrational and ephemeral and that there is no need to make The chief justice had deviated from the national script. any concessions to it. What this boils down to is the For decades the Jewish state has been maligned and unshakeable conviction that there is not much more to the ideology of Zionism mangled. Ironically, vilification in racial or ethnic identification than the legacy of apartheid the 1950s emanated mainly from the radical white right. classification”. Neo - Nazis such as Ray Rudman, for example, located Such views are widely shared in progressive circles. malevolent Jewish power in the Zionist enterprise, while Certainly the ANC, dating back to its foundation SED Brown, editor of the notorious SA Observer, spent document, the Freedom Charter of 1955, has little time for decades identifying Israel with global subversion and ethnic politics or what it sees as “tribalism”. I t has always bizarre conspiracies. Inveterate publicist Johan Schoeman viewed such politics — not without reason — as a means shar ed these fantasies, as did journalist Ivor Benson, a cold of divide and rule, manifest in the apartheid project with war warrior and Jew - hater. its proposed puppet ethnic homelands. Archbishop Today the anti - Zionist left mirrors the old radical Desmond Tutu went so far as to declare ethnicity white right. It too characterises Israel in sinister terms: the Page 15 March 20, 2021 Focus on Israel

“execrable”, something a democr atic nation should not through an SA prism. With a mind - boggling sweep of one - countenance. sided history, rooted firmly in a colonial settler paradigm For the critics of Zionism, historic ties between Jews and devoid of even a shred of historical sensitivity and and the Israel are of no consequence. An important sense of dialectic, it simplistically frames a 100 - year - old dimension of Jewish identity is thereby fundamentally c onflict within an apartheid framework, an approach challenged. Zionism as a Jewish liberation movement is largely jettisoned by serious scholars of the subject. No ignor ed; the term has become associated with exclusivism, place is left for complexity or competing narratives. oppression and expansionism. “It’s a policy that to me The 1947 UN partition of Palestine into a Jewish state looks like it has very many parallels with racism,” says and an Arab state is seemingly forgott en. Forgotten too is Tutu. Jewish suffering in the diaspora is ignored and the that five Arab armies invaded the nascent Jewish state dramatic rebirth of the Jewish st ate not acknowledged. soon after the UN decision. One would not know from In power since 1994, the ANC has in effect separated the ANC script that the Jewish state comprises less than “good” Jews from “bad” (Zionist) Jews. ANC UN 1% of the Arab lands originally under Turkish rule — the representative Neo Mnumzana put it as follows in 1988: other 99% was carved up by the imperial powers into “Jews in SA come in many different political colours. Israel’s neighbours and the countries comprising the Arab There are those who belong to the Zionist movement and League. represent the same reality which is concretised in the state While antagonism towards Israel cannot axiomatically of Israel, and we disapprove of those members of the be equated with anti - Semitism, it is apparent that the Jewish community who have these Zionist affiliations. discourse of anti - Zionism often goes beyond the bounds There are also Jews who belong to the broad struggle of normal political rhetoric and frequently betrays vulgar agains t apartheid. We see such members of the Jewish Jew - hatred. Israel alone is signalled out for obloquy, while community in a positive light. There are also Jews who the human rights abuses of many other states are ignored. belong to the ANC, which is the national liberation Mogoeng made this clear. In so doing he crossed a red movement of the SA people. We see them in an even line. more positive light”. Mr. Shain is emeritus professor in the department of historical studies Essentially the ANC and progre ssive left see Zionism at the University of Cape Town.

The Case for, and against, Benjamin Netanyahu By Benny Avni nysun.com March 15, 2021 Thoughts on the election’s central question. phone calls including, once, at 3 a.m. The resulting deal: For Israelis who go to the polls next week, the case for Pfizer supplied Israel enough v accines to immunize the re electing Bibi is simple: Who else? entire population, while receiving full and accurate data on To lead the country, prime minister wannabes need to the effort. gain 61 supporters in the 120 - seat Knesset, and that’s Israel by far leads the world in vaccination. It’s also where the trickery begins. opening up the country, successfully so far, after a terrible This parliamentary system has evolved in recent years year, complete with four total shutdowns. Leaders the into a referendum on one man, Be njamin Netanyahu, but world over are studying this success. Denmark prime it still takes coalition - building skills to become prime minister, Mette Fredriksen, and Austria’s chancellor, minister, and Mr. Netanyahu, aka “the Wizard,” has Sebastian Kurtz, flew to meet Mr. Netanyahu earlier this perfected the art. month, signing agreements for future joint vaccine - making It is true that public polls indicate that Israelis have efforts. soured on their longest - serving leader. Yet his Li kud party While even We stern Europeans begin to warm up to stands to be the largest Knesset party, while a combination Israel, the Arab world’s detente with Israel is, potentially, of other, smaller parties are projected to give him the even more consequential. Although Mr. Netanyahu’s majority. Polls can be wrong. Indications, though, are that election - eve trip to the United Arab Emirates was the so - called right bloc, led by Likud, will be larger than cancelled last week, he reportedly plans yet another the anti - B ibi bloc. “Marc h surprise” with Arab leaders. Why? The peace drive architect, Jared Kushner, wrote in the “I was talking with several heads of state” but Mr. Wall Street Journal this week that Oman, Mauritania, and Netanyahu “convinced me, frankly, that he would be on Qatar are “on the brink” of joining the Abraham Accords, top of things,” said Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla. So, he and even Saudi Arabia is “in sight.” Last week Kosovo told Israel’s Channel 12 television, “we placed our bet on be came the first Muslim - majority country to set up an Israel. We’re so hap py because the way you executed was embassy in Jerusalem, where now America has its embassy beyond our imagination.” as well. Mr. Bourla detailed Bibi’s obsession with obtaining Mr. Netanyahu had pushed the idea of “outside - in” enough vaccines to immunize Israelis, making endless regional peace long before Mr. Kushner’s father - in - law, Focus o n Israel March 20, 2021 Page 16

President Trump, became president . That concept — Netanyahu’s successes but will forgo his supposedly lavish peace with Arab states could be gained before, and lead lifestyle and alleged corruption. The latest, the New Hope the way to, a deal with the Palestinians — was widely party, is led by Gideon Saar, a former Likud scion who rejected by Washington’s striped pants set. Foggy Bottom promises to shun a Netanyahu - led coalition. Initial insisted that nothing would be possible before Israel enthusiasm, however, has dimmed as Mr. Saar’s poll makes enough conce ssions to get the Palestinian number s sink after a, so far, lackluster campaign. leadership on board. Support for the big hope of the last election, Benny As in the Pfizer case, Mr. Netanyahu pushed and Gantz, a former chief of Israel Defense Forces, has dipped pushed until he found, in Messrs. Trump and Kushner, since joining last year a coalition with Mr. Netanyahu. American partners who understood the dynamic. Inside - Meanwhile, as Mr. Gantz may leave politics altogether out peacemaking was replaced with outside - in, and n ow, as after a projected disappointment in next week's election, Mr. Kushner puts it, Jews “feel more comfortable wearing his former party running mate, Yair Lapid, is widely seen a yarmulke in Dubai than in France.” now as Mr. Netayahu’s top competitor. Bibi’s Israel has become attractive not only for its A former journalist, Mr. Lapid this time around modern, easygoing lifestyle, innovation, military decided to forgo his sharp - tongue political style in favor of capabilities, and great beaches. It’s economy is a m agnet to a Biden - like campaign. That is, he is saying no more than investors, largely because of Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence on necessary and promising little beyond “I’m no Bibi,” while turning away from the rigid socialism of Israel’s founders his party, Yesh Atid, rises a mong the anti - Netanyahu and replacing it with a free economy boosted by a social crowd. safety net. The country’s mandatory but competitive The fact remains that the country’s Left, which once HMO - based health in surance system, which enabled the dominated politics, is shrinking, while everyone else is vaccination effort, is one example of this hybrid economic looking for a leader like Bibi. Mr. Netayahu meantime has model. secured the support of the orthodox parties, and he even By now Mr. Netayahu’s once - revolutionary ideas have tries to make inroads to Arab voters he once disparaged, become widely accepted by mainstream politicians. His calculating they may become king makers this time. competitors rarely stray radically from his free e conomy, Last week, in this space, I sketched the case against skepticism of the Palestinian propaganda, security - oriented Mr. Netanyahu. There are chunks of Israel’s population style of governing. Instead, they promise Bibi - less Bibi - for whom his shtick has worn thin. And there is no doubt ism. that Israeli cemeteries are populated by irreplaceable In the last three election rounds new parties promised people. uncorrupt government that would build on Mr.

Israel’s vaccine rollout gets South Park shoutout By Naama Barak israel21c.org March 16 , 2021 Israel’s successful vaccination effort gets two mentions on show marking the anniversary of the To which the guard at the front of the line replies, “So global pandemic. then go to Israel.” Israel’s Covid - 19 vaccination rollout got “I tried. I couldn’t get in,” the man a shoutout on the latest South Park episode, answers, in a jab of Israel’s closed airspace. which was dedicated to the first anniversary The second mention saw a plane of the global pandemic and the burning suspiciously similar to those chartered by issues surrounding inoculation in the United Israeli airline El Al – called “Air Israel” – States. landing in town to cheering crowds. It is Israel’s success ful vaccination effort got loaded with endless boxes of vaccines that are two mentions on the show – both overall distributed by a stereotypical - l ooking bearded positive but not devoid of the sarcastic muscular man wearing a white tank top to the South Park treatment. sounds of a terrible estimation of Middle The first mention saw a man standing in Eastern Music. line lament the state of vaccinations in the “It’s Air Israel with enough vaccines for town of South Park. every adult in town!” exclaims one of the “You know, in Israel they vaccinate characters. everybody. Israel is way cooler than this Considering how others fared on this lame place,” he says. show over the years, this is as good as it gets . Current issue also available at suburbanorthodox.org . If you see something, send something” – edito r