Document Number: MKC/25

NOTE ON COMMUTING TO AND FROM .

Summary

• At the time of the 2001 Census over 38,000 people commuted into the of Milton Keynes to work and over 22,000 people commuted out resulting in net in- commuting to Milton Keynes of over 16,000 people. Most workers to Milton Keynes come from (including ) and . Most out- commuters from Milton Keynes worked in Bedfordshire.

• Milton Keynes has a high degree of self-containment in 2001 nearly 80% of the resident population in employment lived and worked within the Borough.

• MKC believes the commuting figures that appear in a SEEDA report illustrating net in- commuting of 35,000 to Milton Keynes overstates the level of net in-commuting to the Borough. Department for Transport Tempro flows indicate net in-flows of 25,000 in 2009, a figure 10,000 lower than the SEEDA figure.

• The population and the number of jobs in the Borough are expected to increase. The Council is aiming for more self–containment to increase the number and proportion of people living and working in the Borough and to reduce the amount of in and out commuting over time.

Context

The Spatial Vision for Milton Keynes in 2026 set out in the Core Strategy (October 2010, p.16) is to grow and develop Milton Keynes so that it becomes a major 21 st century city. By 2026, the population of the Borough will have grown to around 300,000 and the city will be among the UK’s twenty biggest cities in terms of population. An estimated two million people are expected to live within a 45 minutes travel time of the city. Milton Keynes is one of the core local authorities at the heart of the South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP)

There will always be in and out-commuting from one local authority area to another but this is a consequence of economic growth and the choices people make. Milton Keynes has a high level of self-containment that is a high proportion of residents in employment who also work in the Borough of Milton Keynes. The Council is aiming for more self–containment to increase the number and proportion of people living and working in the Borough in the future.

People commute to and from Milton Keynes for a wide variety of reasons such as

• Lifestyle choice-live in the country but work in the city • Live in cheaper accommodation in Milton Keynes but work in high paid jobs in London etc. • Live in cheaper accommodation outside Milton Keynes e.g. Northampton but work in high paid jobs in Milton Keynes. • Generally speaking , people who work in lower skilled (and often less well paid jobs) do not commute as far as those working in higher skilled (and better paid) occupations since the cost of commuting represents a higher proportion of income for those on lower salaries. Additionally, people with higher skills often need to travel further in order to access employment which matches their skills.

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The origin and destination of commuters to and from Milton Keynes is set out below. The source of this information is the 2001 Census

Table 1: Commuting patterns into and out of Milton Keynes by Local Authority District in 2001.

LOCAL AUTHORITY NET TRAVELLING AREA IN TO MK OUT OF MK TO MK South Northamptonshire 5226 977 4249 Northampton 3745 1339 2406 Wellingborough 1071 253 818 East Northamptonshire 706 96 610 Daventry 720 175 545 Kettering 323 67 256 Corby 93 66 27 Sub-total Northants 11,884 2,973 8,911

South Bedfordshire 3732 1566 2166 Bedford 3483 1614 1869 Mid Bedfordshire 3215 1767 1448 Luton 1491 1374 117 Sub-total Beds 11,921 6,321 5,600

Aylesbury Vale 4612 1844 2768 Chiltern 154 78 76 136 217 -81 South Bucks 41 37 4 Sub-total Bucks 4,943 2,176 2,767

Rest of UK 9,714 10,763 -1,049

TOTALS 38462 22233 16229

Source: 2001 Census Table W107 Note: Due to ONS making adjustments to the data to protect confidentiality these figures may be slightly different to other commuting tables published by ONS. A negative figure indicates net out-commuting from Milton Keynes

• The table above illustrates that over 38,000 people commuted into MK in 2001 and 22,000 commuted out with net in-commuting to MK of over 16,000.

• The Borough of Milton Keynes has stronger links to Bedfordshire including Luton in the East of England region and Northamptonshire in the East Midlands region than to in the South East region. In-commuting to Milton Keynes from Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire in 2001 totalled around 12,000 with about 6000 people out-commuting from MK to Bedfordshire and 3,000 out-commuting from MK to Northamptonshire. In–commuting to Milton Keynes from Buckinghamshire was around 5000 with over 2000 people out-commuting from Milton Keynes to Buckinghamshire.

2 • In-commuting from Buckinghamshire to Milton Keynes was 4,943 of which the vast majority 4,612 people (93.3%) came from Vale district. Numbers out- commuting from MK to was 1,844.

• The number of in-commuters to Milton Keynes from Aylesbury Vale district at 4,612 is around 12% of the total number of in-commuters to MK (38462). The number of out- commuters from MK to Aylesbury Vale at 1844 is about 8.3% of the total number of out-commuters from MK (22233).

Table 2 illustrates the main areas where in-commuters to Milton Keynes in 2001 come from. (Flows of over a 1000 people).

Table 2: Main origin of in-commuters to Milton Keynes in 2001 Origin of Commuters to MK Number of Commuters 1.South Northamptonshire 5,226 2.Aylesbury Vale 4,612 3.Northampton 3,745 4.South Bedfordshire 3,732 5.Bedford 3,483 6.Mid-Bedfordshire 3,215 7.Luton 1,491 8.Wellingborough 1,071 Source: 2001 Census Table W107

Table 3 illustrates the main areas that out-commuters from Milton Keynes go to. (Flows of over a 1000 people)

Table 3: Main destination of out-commuters from Milton Keynes in 2001 Destination of out -commuters from Number of Commuters MK 1.Aylesbury Vale 1,844 2.Mid Bedfordshire 1,767 3.Bedford 1,614 4.South Bedfordshire 1,566 5.Luton 1,374 6.Northampton 1,339 7.LB Westminster 1,110 Source: 2001 Census Table W107

3 Table 4: Commuting patterns into and out of Milton Keynes by Local Authority District in 2001.

Commuting Commuting out into MK of MK Total of all destinations 39,435 23,253

Named local authority's are those with commuting numbers over 200 either in or out Commuting Commuting out into MK Percentage of MK Percentage Luton 1,538 3.9% 1,362 5.9% Mid Bedfordshire 3,331 8.4% 1,853 8.0% Bedford 3,514 8.9% 1,531 6.6% South Bedfordshire 3,878 9.8% 1,743 7.5% Huntingdonshire 510 1.3% 247 1.1% Dacorum 597 1.5% 716 3.1% North Hertfordshire 321 0.8% 90 0.4% St Albans 411 1.0% 336 1.4% Watford 81 0.2% 409 1.8% Daventry 739 1.9% 171 0.7% East Northamptonshire 703 1.8% 123 0.5% Kettering 369 0.9% 84 0.4% Northampton 3,621 9.2% 1,423 6.1% South Northamptonshire 5,410 13.7% 1,107 4.8% Wellingborough 1,063 2.7% 280 1.2% Aylesbury Vale 4,666 11.8% 1,938 8.3% Wycombe 117 0.3% 234 1.0% Cherwell 533 1.4% 258 1.1% Rugby 207 0.5% 72 0.3% City of London 0 0.0% 738 3.2% Brent 72 0.2% 213 0.9% Camden 78 0.2% 630 2.7% Hillingdon 141 0.4% 265 1.1% Islington 48 0.1% 279 1.2% Tower Hamlets 18 0.0% 228 1.0% City of Westminster 42 0.1% 1,068 4.6% Total 32,008 81.2% 17,398 74.8% Other 7,427 18.8% 5,855 25.2% Grand Total 39,435 100% 23,253 100% Source: 2001 Census Table W301 Note: In tables 4, 5 and 6 the numbers of commuters is slightly different from those shown in the previous tables.

4 Table 5: In –commuting by local authority area to Milton Keynes expressed as a proportion of total in–commuting flows in 2001. Origin of Commuters to MK Number of Percentage of in- Commuters commuting.

1.South Northamptonshire 5,410 13.7% 2.Aylesbury Vale 4,666 11.8% 3.South Bedfordshire 3,878 9.8% 4.Northampton 3,621 9.2% 5.Bedford 3,514 8.9% 6.Mid-Bedfordshire 3,331 8.4% 7.Luton 1,538 3.9% 8.Wellingborough 1,063 2.7% Total number of commuters 39,435 100% Source: 2001 Census Table W301

In Table 5 the number of in-commuters to MK from different local authority areas is ranked in proportion to the total number of commuters into the Borough. South Northants and Aylesbury are the first and second biggest origin points for in-commuters to Milton Keynes providing 13.7% and 11.8% of all in-commuters into the city.

Table 6: Destination by local authority area of commuters from Milton Keynes expressed as a proportion of total out–commuting flows in 2001. Destination of Number of Commuters Percentage of out- Commuters from MK commuting

1.Aylesbury Vale 1,938 8.3% 2.Mid Bedfordshire 1,853 8.0% 3.South Bedfordshire 1,743 7.5% 4.Bedford 1,531 6.6% 5.Northampton 1,423 6.1% 6.Luton 1,362 5.9% 7.South Northamptonshire 1,107 4.8% 8.LB. Westminster 1,068 4.6% Grand total 23,253 100% Source: 2001 Census Table W301

Table 6 illustrates that Aylesbury Vale was the number one destination for out-commuters from Milton Keynes in 2001 followed by Mid-Bedfordshire and South Bedfordshire.

5 Aylesbury Vale Travel-to-Work Patterns 2001

Key facts

Live and work in district 52,619 Total in-commuters 16,492 Total out-commuters 33,660 Total employment 69,111 Total resident workers 86,279 Total gross commuting flows 50,152 Total net commuting flows -17,168 Source: 2001 Census Table T10

The net outflow from Aylesbury vale over 17,000 to all destinations is very similar to the net inflow to Milton Keynes from all destinations 16,000.

Table 7: Out-commuting from Aylesbury Vale district in 2001 % of total Residential % of Out- Out-commuting Workers Commuting Live and work in district 52,619 61.0% - Total out-commuting 33,660 39.0% - Total resident workers 86,279 100.0% - Source: 2001 Census Table T10

At 61% the percentage of workers who live and work in the Aylesbury Vale district (the level of containment) is much lower than Milton Keynes of 79.9% nearly 80%.

Table 8: Principal destinations of out-commuters from Aylesbury Vale district in 2001. % of Number of Resident % of Out- Local Authority Area Commuters workers commuting 1) Milton Keynes 4,613 5.3% 13.7% 2) Wycombe 3,828 4.4% 11.4% 3) Dacorum 3,238 3.8% 9.6% 4) South 2,605 3.0% 7.7% 5) Chiltern 1,907 2.2% 5.7% 6) Cherwell 1,679 1.9% 5.0% 7) South Bedfordshire 1,505 1.7% 4.5% 8) Westminster 1,250 1.4% 3.7% 9) 1,028 1.2% 3.1% Source: 2001 Census Table W107

Table 8 confirms the findings of table 5 from the perspective of Aylesbury Vale it identifies Milton Keynes as the main destination for out-commuters from Aylesbury Vale but only about 13.7% of all out-commuters from Aylesbury Vale commute to Milton Keynes, 86.3% go elsewhere.

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Table 9: Origin by local authority area of in-commuters to Aylesbury Vale district in 2001. Number of % of total % of in - Local Authority Area Commuters employment commuting. 1) Milton Keynes 1,841 2.7% 11.2% 2) Wycombe 1,780 2.6% 10.8% 3) 1,466 2.1% 8.9% 4) South Bedfordshire 1,407 2.0% 8.5% 5) Cherwell 1,251 1.8% 7.6% 6) Dacorum 1,172 1.7% 7.1% 7) South Northamptonshire 1,050 1.5% 6.4% Source: 2001 Census Table W107

Table 9 confirms the findings of table 6 from the perspective of Aylesbury Vale it identifies Milton Keynes as the main source of in-commuters to Aylesbury Vale but only about 11% of all commuters to Aylesbury Vale originate in Milton Keynes, 89% come from elsewhere.

Where do figures on higher commuting to Milton Keynes come from?

A number of participants at the Core Strategy examination having been quoting figures suggesting that commuting to Milton Keynes has increased from over 38,000 in 2001 to 53,000 and net in-commuting into Milton Keynes has doubled from the net in-commuting figure of 16,000 mentioned in the 2001 Census to 35,000.

The source of these higher commuting figures is the report “ Milton Keynes Economy, The impact of recession on Milton Keynes, March 2010 ” (Inquiry document Number B 100A) they appear in figure 13 on page 10. These figures were produced by researchers in the Development Agency (SEEDA) Research and Economics team. They quote a figure of 53,000 people commuting into MK and 18,000 people commuting out from MK. Thus net in–commuting into MK was 35,000 people. The source for these commuting figures is quoted as being the Office of National Statistics (ONS) 2009. Figures 14 and 15 in this paper also give figures on the place of work of MK residents in 2008 and the place of residence of MK workers in 2008. The source of this information is given as the ONS Annual Population survey 2008.

Officers have checked with ONS on the source of these figures, ONS have replied that the only travel to work statistics available from the Office for National Statistics is from the 2001 Census.

More accurate travel to work statistics from the 2011 Census are not expected be available until the end of 2012- beginning of 2013 (second phase of the Census release),

The Council considers that figures suggesting net in-commuting of 35,000 to Milton Keynes are unreliable. They are considerable higher than the Department for Transport, Tempro figures shown in table 10 below.

7 E-mail from Paul Edwards in Milton Keynes Intelligence about the commuting figures that featured in the SEEDA report.

Mike,

I have had a look at the commuting figures you gave me. I think (but I’m not 100% sure as they don’t note the source properly) they have applied a proportion to the ABI employment data. So for example in 2008 the ABI estimates there were 142,800 people working in MK. ONS produce an estimate that 35.4% of jobs in MK were filled with non MK residents. So 35.4% of 142,800 equals 50,551 which is close to their figure. I can’t get their exact number.

This isn’t the most reliable way of producing a statistics as it uses two different sources and both come with large confidence intervals. They may have done it another way but I can’t find a direct source.

8 Table 10 Figures on Commuting and Containment for Milton Keynes

Self Containment of workers in Milton Keynes 2001 2009 2018 2021 2026 2031 < 16 47,922 50,105 57,378 59,591 60,956 62,955 16 to 64 142,932 157,117 171,451 176,354 183,308 189,712 65+ 20,583 26,039 38,377 42,570 49,116 57,372 Total 211,437 233,261 267,206 278,515 293,380 310,039 House Holds 83,507 95,475 113,958 119,765 126,993 135,460 Jobs 138,937 153,187 170,985 174,085 177,662 180,097 Workers 115,772 127,819 140,038 142,722 146,423 150,076 Shortfall 23,165 25,368 30,947 31,363 31,239 30,021 (number of workers) self containment % 79.90% 85.10% 87.80% 88.80% 90.40% 92.00% self containment 90,302 99,699 109,230 111,323 114,210 117,059 In commuting 39438 44000 47000 48000 45000 42000 Out commuting 23247 19000 17000 16000 14000 12000 Net imp ort of labour 16191 25000 30000 32000 31000 30000 Source of data: TEMPRO, data set version 62, Planning data. Department for Transport, on page 12 of MKC Matter 5 statement.

• This is a Department of Transport data set • This is the latest data set released by DfT, post 2008 recession and takes into account revised predictions of growth. (The whole of this data set was released in 2011). • Number of jobs is all jobs. • Figures on commuting include all commuters be they car drivers and passengers, bus and rail users and people on foot. • Figures show size of labour force and number of jobs in Borough rising from 2001 to 2031 but also an increasing level of self-containment rising from 79.9% in 2001 to 90.4% in 2026 as more people who live in Mk are expected to take up jobs in MK and fewer people to commute from outside MK. • Council is aiming at containment by providing opportunities for people to live near their place of work and shifting to more sustainable means of transport. • Table 10 illustrates net in-commuting to Milton Keynes rising from around 16,000 in 2001 to 25,000 in 2009, 30,000 in 2018 and peaking at 32,000 in 2021 before declining. • Figures on out-commuting peaked in 2001 at around 23,000 falling to 19,000 in 2009 and declining to 2031.

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Milton Keynes Travel-to-Work Patterns 2001-2026.

Key facts

2001 SEEDA 2009* 2026* Report 2010 Live and work in district 85,824 Total in-commuters 38,462 53,000 44000 45000 Total out-commuters 22,233 18,000 19000 14000 Total employment/jobs 124,333 in MK Total resident workers 108,075 Total gross commuting 60,695 71,000 63,000 59,000 flows Total net commuting 16,229 35,000 25000 31000 flows into MK

Sources 2001 Census Table W107, T10 and KS16 and DfT Tempro figures for 2009 and 2026 and SEEDA report “ Milton Keynes Economy, The impact of recession on Milton Keynes, March 2010 quotes 2009 ONS figures.

Conclusions

• At the time of the 2001 census table over 38,000 people commuted into Milton Keynes to work and over 22,000 people commuted out with net in-commuting to MK of over 16,000.

• The Borough of Milton Keynes has stronger links to Northamptonshire in the East Midlands region and Bedfordshire including Luton in the East of England region than to Buckinghamshire in the South East region. In commuting from Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire in 2001 totalled around 12,000 with about 6000 people out- commuting from MK to Bedfordshire and 3,000 out-commuting from MK to Northamptonshire. In–commuting to Milton Keynes from Buckinghamshire was around 5000 with over 2000 people out-commuting from Milton Keynes to Buckinghamshire.

• At the time of the 2001 Census, Aylesbury Vale district was the number one destination for out-commuters from Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes was the main destination for out-commuters from Aylesbury Vale, but as Table 8 illustrated of the 33,660 people who commuted out of Aylesbury Vale to work only 4,613 people commuted from Aylesbury Vale to Milton Keynes, this represents about 13.7% of all out-commuters, 86.3% of all out-commuters from Aylesbury Vale district go elsewhere to work.

• 80% of the resident population in employment in Milton Keynes lived and worked within the borough in 2001. This is higher than the figure for Aylesbury Vale district (61%).

• Definitive figures on travel to work flows from the 2011 Census will not be available until the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013.

10 • MKC is not sure how the commuting figures that appear in the SEEDA report “ Milton Keynes Economy, The impact of recession on Milton Keynes, March 2010 ” have been arrived at particularly when ONS have confirmed that the only travel to work statistics available from the Office for National Statistics are from the 2001 Census. These SEEDA figures quoting ONS statistics as the source are considered unreliable.

• MKC believes the commuting figures that appear in the SEEDA report illustrating net in-commuting of 35,000 to Milton Keynes overstates the level of net in-commuting to the Borough. Department for Transport Tempro flows indicate net in-flows of 25,000 in 2009, a figure 10,000 lower than the SEEDA figure.

• MKC is forecasting the size of the labour force and number of jobs in the Borough to rise from 2001 to 2031 but we are also forecasting an increasing level of self- containment in the Borough (rising from 79.9% in 2001 to 90.4% in 2026).

• Tempro figures show net in-commuting rising from around 16,000 in 2001 to 25,000 in 2009, 30,000 in 2018 and peaking at 32,000 in 2021 before declining.

• However, in future more people who live in MK are expected to take up jobs in MK. Fewer people are expected to commute in from outside MK and out-commuting from MK is expected to decrease.

In matter 4 in answer to question 4 (iii) the Council’s statement MKC/9 on page 10 states :

4.1.21 The logic of Milton Keynes growth is that with the number of jobs currently growing at about twice the growth of the local labour supply there will be more in-commuting in future. However, the continuing growth of jobs within the city in future will provide opportunities for people who commute out of the city to work locally. Alternatively, the development of new dwellings in and around the city will provide opportunities for people currently living outside the Borough but who commute to it to work, opportunities to live locally. Transportation infrastructure is expected to be able to cope with this growth (although works may be needed to junction 14 of the M1) and the expected development of new transport infrastructure such as east-west rail in future will provide more sustainable forms of transport for people to travel to and from the city by means other than by car.

Although the size of the resident population and job numbers in the Borough are expected to increase in future. The Council’s strategy is aiming for more self–containment to increase the number and proportion of people living and working in the Borough and to reduce the amount of in and out commuting over time.

NB Bob Wilson made the point at the Core Strategy examination that Milton Keynes has a higher level of unemployment 6,496 people (4% of the working population) in May 2012 than the UK (3.9%) or the South East (2.6%) so we have a higher proportion of people available for work. A key priority of the Council’s Economic Development Strategy is to equip the unemployed with the skills to achieve employment locally.

Revised Michael Moore 18.7.2012

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