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Quarterly Review Fund Manager Research Trips - US and China June 2014

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Quarterly Review Fund Manager Research Trips - US and China June 2014 Professional Selection Quarterly Review Fund Manager research trips - US and China June 2014 Two of the main drivers of financial markets in recent months have been uncertainty about the recovery in the United States (US), given the unexpectedly sharp slowdown in Q1 growth and concerns about the slowdown in China and the impact on the resource sector. Given the importance of the US and China in a global context and their influence on the Australian resource sector, two of Antares’ senior fund managers, Nick Pashias and Brett McNeill, embarked on research trips to these countries in the June quarter. This article outlines their findings and the implications for Antares share portfolios. The information contained within this article is intended as factual information although we acknowledge that there is a reasonable likelihood of doubt and the information is not intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. US Q1 slowdown temporary but US Company visits in the US steel market suggested that the US currently has the highest steel prices on a global basis. In fact, the economy still operating well below capacity price premium in the US is so high that Chinese companies are Nick Pashias, Antares Co-head of equities and portfolio manager exporting steel into the US as they receive higher margins than in of the Antares Elite Opportunities Fund, visited the US on a their domestic market despite the freight charges associated with research trip. One of the current themes in the Antares Elite transporting the steel. This gives a clear insight into the relative Opportunities Fund is an overweight position in selected industrial weakness of the Chinese economy which we discuss in more cyclical stocks (including BlueScope Steel, Brambles, Sims detail below. Metal Management) that will benefit from stronger US growth and The key insights gained from Nick’s company visits to BlueScope are also experiencing significant structural changes that have Steel and Sims Metal Management are detailed in the following improved their fundamental valuations. Nick’s trip to the US was break-out boxes. primarily concerned with visiting some of these companies – particularly BlueScope Steel (BSL) and Sims Metal Management Key insights about BlueScope Steel (BSL) (SGM) – and getting a better understanding of the US economy, • Steel demand is improving – given the unexpected slowdown in Q1 growth. BlueScope Buildings North America The main message from this trip was that the US economy is (BBNA) has seen improved demand in definitely rebounding from the weakness in Q1. Most people Nick each of the past four years. Demand spoke to commented that April and May had seen much higher bottomed in 2010 at around 173 million volumes, with the point of debate shifting to whether this was just a tonnes (mt). Current demand is around catch up from the weak Q1, or a sign that some level of underlying 240-250mt, although this is still well below the 2008 peak of strength was returning to the economy. Many were still uncertain 390mt. on this point. Nick’s visits to Australian resource companies (more • Since the GFC, non-residential construction has been details below) also reinforced the view that growth is picking up dominated by government spending but more recently, private globally. Many of the companies he spoke to have seen signs of spending has returned. This is positive for BSL as it is more finished product drawdowns and lower inventories in the US that heavily exposed to the private sector. should result in increased resource demand as companies restock • Speculative builders have recently started to return to in coming months. Some companies also cited early signs of an the market. This suggests a more sustained recovery in improvement in demand from Europe, although it was still patchy confidence. across the region. • Order backlogs have increased, although this is partly due to The other significant theme in the US is just how slow this recovery an inability to deliver product to customers during the extreme has been by historical standards. Most companies Nick visited Q1 weather. agreed that the US economy was still operating well below full • BSL has a competitive advantage in constructing large, capacity and this has clear implications for corporate profits. It is clear spans for light industrial buildings. The company has only when the economy approaches full capacity that companies just released a new product in this range that uses nuts and obtain pricing power. So in the current environment, profits can bolts rather than welding and this has been well received by only grow as volumes recover but the extra boost that is often customers (e.g. discount retailer Costco is using it in all new provided by higher prices is not yet evident. This is particularly facilities). BSL are the only company offering this product and it important for companies such as BlueScope Steel that are close is patent protected. to full capacity in some markets but do not yet have pricing power • The outlook for BSL’s US operations is mixed, partly due to as the industry in general still has significant spare capacity (see capacity constraints in some divisions. For example, BBNA break-out box on BlueScope Steel). management are confident of earnings growth as their business has plenty of scope to increase volumes without the need for significant capital expenditure. By contrast, North Star BlueScope is running at 100% capacity hence earnings growth is more reliant on pricing power which has not yet emerged as competitors still have spare capacity. 1 Fund Manager research trips - US and China Key insights about Sims Metal Management (SGM) • Capacity is being taken out of the recycling industry by competitors and this is positive for SGM over the medium term • A recovery in the US once volumes improve. market represents the • Visits to SGM’s competitors confirmed Nick’s view of just how greatest opportunity for poorly the company was managed in the past. Hence there is Sims Metal Management a huge opportunity for the new CEO, Galdino Claro (instated in (SGM) to achieve November 2013), to change the way that investors perceive the earnings growth in the company. next few years. The US generated 58% of SGM’s earnings • SGM has implemented significant cost cutting in its US (before interest and tax) in 2008 but only 10% in 1H14. For a operations in the past 6-9 months in an effort to improve turnaround to be achieved, US volumes need to increase by margins. This is expected to continue. around 10% and the mix of scrap (see below) will need to revert • Nick believes the company will announce a strategic review in to historical norms. Volumes were very depressed in Q1 (partly Q3 which should contain further cost reduction initiatives. There due to bad weather) but have improved substantially in Q2. It is also a chance that SGM will announce some form of joint remains unclear how much of this is a catch up from Q1 versus venture with its main competitor, Schnitzer, which would be very an underlying demand improvement. positive for the stock. SGM tried but failed to achieve this joint • Since the GFC, the mix of scrap has changed as there has venture in 2008. been a significant fall in the number of cars and household appliances being scrapped (see Chart 1). This has hurt SGM’s Australian resource stocks and iron ore earnings as these are high margin scrap products due to their large content of non-ferrous material. Looking forward, we prices expect an improvement in scrap from these sources as the US Nick also spent time in Perth towards the end of June, recovery becomes more durable, although there is no evidence visiting Australia’s major mining companies to obtain a better of this to date. Given the age of cars and appliances in the US understanding of the recent weakness in the iron ore price (down has risen sharply (see Chart 2), stronger growth should prompt 19.7% in the June quarter) and how the slowdown in China replacement demand for these products. SGM is well placed to is impacting the industry. This ties in with another significant benefit from this trend once it commences. investment theme in the Antares Elite Opportunities Fund – an overweight position in some of Australia’s large capitalisation Chart 1: Significantly less cars and appliances being resource stocks such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Iluka Resources scrapped and OZ Minerals. Vehicles & Appliances ferrous scrap metal generation 65 kg per capita 2008-09 recession had significant impact on the The iron ore market consumer goods replacement cycle Continued low consumer confidence Whilst Antares had forecast some weakness in the iron ore price High unemployment, low labour participation, and in the second half of 2014 in response to new supply coming on 60 weak mortgage lending, relative to past levels, is keeping aging consumer goods in the scrap reservoir line, the price move came 3-5 months earlier than expected. It also coincided with unexpected strength in the Australian dollar, 55 a slowdown in the Chinese property sector, which is a very large Long-Term Avg source of steel demand, and tight liquidity conditions in China’s Return to long-term auto financial system. These factors all conspired to exacerbate the & appliance per capita 50 scrapping would boost impact of the weak iron ore price on resource stocks. shredder feedstock by at least 10% One of the main conclusions from Nick’s company visits was 45 the huge disparity in the impact of the weaker iron ore price on the small and large producers. The smaller Australian iron ore producers are really struggling to make a profit with the iron ore 40 price down at current levels as their cost bases are relatively high.
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