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China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook

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China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Foreword 本期快讯的编写 团队包括： This edition of the China Banking Newsletter analyses 33 A- and H-share listed banks that had issued their 2018 results by 31 March, 2019. They represent 75.60% of the total assets of China’s commercial banking sector and 79.90% of its net profits. The banks fall into three categories:主编：王玮 Large commercial banks (6): 副主编Rural：邓亮 & City Commercial Banks* (20) • Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)编写团• 队Bank成员 of： Ningbo • China Construction Bank (CCB) 白洋、• 刘娜Bank、 of刘钰 Zhengzhou、李富强 、苏茜茜、 • Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) 盛剑夫• 、Bank王润华 of Chongqing、王宇航 、肖锦琨、 • Bank of China (BOC) • Bank of Changsha 张亚涵、张允、卓雨辰 • Bank of Communications (BOCOM) • Bank of Jiangxi • Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) • Bank of Gansu （按姓氏拼音首字母顺序排列） • Shengjing Bank Joint-stock Commercial Banks (7) • Harbin Bank • Bank of Tianjin • China Merchants Bank (CMB) 专家委员会： • Huishang Bank • Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) 梁国威• 、Bank何淑贞 of Qingdao、 朱宇 、 叶少宽、 • China Minsheng Bank Corporation (CMBC) • Zhongyuan Bank • China CITIC Bank (CITIC) 胡亮、薛竞、姚文平、杨尚圆、谭文杰、 • Bank of Jiujiang • China Everbright Bank (CEB) 潘德昌 • Luzhou City Commercial Bank • Ping An Bank (PAB) • Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank • China Zheshang Bank (CZB) • Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank • Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank • Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank • Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank • Zijin Rural Commercial Bank * The Rural & City Commercial Banks are listed by region. Please see page 6 for details. - 2 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook 欢迎阅读第38期《银行业快讯》 本期分析的35家银行，相当于中国商业银行总资产的 前言 80.04%和净利润的84.21%。具体分别包括了三大类： 2018年，全球不确定因素增多， 中国经济在新旧动能转换阶段， 面临着一定的下行压力。 大型 工商银行（工行）Global uncertainties中国银行（中行） increased in 2018 and the Chinese 商业银行 建设银行（建行）economy faced 交通银行（交行）some downward pressure as 本期it continues《银行业快讯 its 》分析了35家 （6家） transformation. “股和 或 股上市银行，发现这 农业银行（农行） 邮储银行（邮储） A / H Overall, bank profits continued to grow while concerns about些银行 credit在稳中有变 asset 、变中有忧的 quality remained. Capital adequacy ratios were stable. At内 the外部环境下 same time, ，总体上盈利持续 China’s banks have been embracing business transformation增长 by、 putting信贷资产质量风险 承压、 招商银行（招行） 光大银行（光大） more emphasis on retail banking and developing financial资本充足率稳定 inclusion.They 。 股份制are changing兴业银行（兴业） to meet the requirements平安银行（平安） of new regulations and addressing 商业银行the issue浦发银行（浦发） of wealth management华夏银行（华夏 products. ） 同时，这些上市银行也在积极推 （9家） 中信银行（中信） 浙商银行（浙商） 进业务转型。例如，重视零售银 In our民生 analysis,银行（民生） we found growing differences between banks,行、 积极发展普惠金融particularly 、应资管 in the small and medium-sized segment. As the market has管新规的要求调整理财产品结构 deepened, the sector has become more heterogeneous. 等和加大投入金融科技等。 宁波银行 哈尔滨银行 无锡农商行 For more information or to discuss the development of this sector, please 郑州银行 天津银行 江阴农商行 本期快讯的分析中，我们也发现 contact a member of the PwC Banking and Capital Markets team listed in 城市商业银 the appendix.重庆银行 徽商银行 重庆农商行 各类银行、各家银行之间的差异 行及农村商 长沙银行 青岛银行 广州农商行 性越来越大。这种趋势在中小型 业银行* 江西银行 中原银行 九台农商行 银行身上体现得更加明显。反映 （20家） 甘肃银行 九江银行 紫金农商行 了市场化程度加深后，中国银行 盛京银行 泸州市商业银行 业的同质化得到了一定的改善。 想要获取更多信息或与我们探讨 *城农商行部分的分析，已按其所处地域进行归类，详情请见第9页的说明。 中国银行业的发展，欢迎联系您 除了特殊说明外，本刊列示的银行均按照其截至 在普华永道的日常业务联系人， 或本快讯附录中列明的普华永道 2018年12月31日经审计的资产规模排列，往期数据 银行业及资本市场专业团队。 均为同口径对比。除特殊注明，所有信息均来自上 市银行年报，其他信息也都来自公开资料，涉及金 额的货币单位为人民币（比例除外）。 - 3 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Contents Part 1: Performance Overview 5 Net interest spread and net interest margin are broadly positive 8 Fee income from bank cards and electronic payments is up, but wealth 9 management is declining Part 2: Business transformation 10 Credit is targeted at retail loans 11 Wealth management has a long way to go 12 Part 3: Asset quality 16 Local government bonds are in demand 17 Corporate bond default risks begin to emerge 18 Credit asset quality under pressure 19 New financial instrument guidelines: changes to provision method 22 Part 4: Capital management 25 Capital regulation will become stricter and capital supplements will need 26 to be accelerated. Special features 1. Transformation and Renaissance – Banks’ subsidiaries need to 13 prepare for the new era of Asset & Wealth Management 2. Looking back at the new financial instruments guidelines in the first 28 year of the IFRS 9 era 3. Analysing the impact of the “Basel III final plan” 31 Appendix 35 Summary of financial data 36 PwC banking and capital market contacts 41 - 4 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Part 1: 2018 Performance Overview - 5 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Large and joint-stock commercial banks have seen Joint-stock commercial banks continuous growth in net profits. Rural and city commercial banks, on the other hand, are affected 14% CMB 80.8 by differences in the economic performance of their 13% regions. 3% SPDB 56.5 The increase in provisions for loans has led to a lower 2% rate of net profit growth for some banks, though this -1% is still significantly lower than the growth in operating CMBC 50.3 4% income. Most banks’ total return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) were slightly lower than the 6% CITIC 45.4 previous year, but still better than their international 3% peers. 7% CEB 33.7 4% Large commercial banks 7% PAB 24.8 3% ICBC 298.7 4% 3% 5% CZB 11.6 8% 5% CCB 255.6 5% 2018 vs 2017 2017 vs 2016 5% ABC 202.6 5% Rural & city commercial banks* 4% BOC 192.4 1% Northeast 11.9 -18% 5% 3% BOCOM 74.2 4% Bohai Rim 6.3 7% 10% -12% PSBC 524 20% Central 23.5 -5% 18% 2018 vs 2017 2017 vs 2016 Western 17.1 2% 20% Southeast 21.2 17% coast 16% 2018 vs 2017 2017 vs 2016 *The rural and city commercial banks differ significantly by region.e W have therefore grouped them as follows: Northeast: Shengjing Bank, Harbin Bank and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank; Bohai Rim: Tianjin Bank, Qingdao Bank; Central: Zhongyuan Bank, Zhengzhou Bank, Changsha Bank, Huishang Bank, Jiujiang Bank and Jiangxi Bank; West: Gansu Bank, Chongqing Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Zhangzhou Commercial Bank; Southeast Coast: Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank, Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank, Zijin Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank and Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank. - 6 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Year-on-year growth rates by income type Joint-stock Income type Large Commercial Rural and City Commercial Commercial Operating income 7.88% 9.70% 17.29% Net interest income 9.36% 4.09% -1.13% Net fee and commission income 3.61% 0.35% -8.26% Investment income 28.67% 200.58% 521.32% Changes in fair value gains and losses 145.12% 605.08% 498.32% The operating income of the six large commercial banks increased by 8% year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in net interest income. Investment income and fair value also grew significantly. Operating income for Joint-stock and Rural & City commercial banks was greatly affected by increases in investment income and fair value. The increase in the former is due to greater asset holdings plus implementation of the new financial instruments standard. The interest income generated from financial assets measured at fair value in the profit & loss has been reclassified from interest income to investment income. Large commercial banks Rural & city commercial banks Op. Income Growth Growth Op. Income Growth Growth (RMB bn.) 2018/17 2017/16 (RMB bn.) 2018/17 2017/16 ICBC 773.8 7% 7% Northeast 35.2 6% -8% CCB 658.9 6% 3% Bohai Rim 19.5 24% -12% ABC 598.6 11% 6% Central 88.0 21% 10% BOC 504.1 4% -1% Western 47.5 8% 11% BOCOM 212.7 8% 1% Southeast 60.2 26% 1% coast PSBC 261.2 16% 19% PSBC 261.2 16% 19% Joint-stock commercial banks Op. Income Growth Growth (RMB bn.) 2018/17 2017/16 CMB 248.6 13% 5% CMBC 171.5 2% 5% CITIC 156.8 9% -7% CEB 164.9 5% 2% PAB 110.2 20% -2% CZB 116.7 10% -2% SPDB 39.0 14% 2% - 7 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Net interest spread (NIS) and net interest Large Commercial Banks margin (NIM) broadly positive Average NIS and NIM for large commercial banks have both broadened over the last two years. Reasons for 2.65% 2.48% improvement in these figures include: 2.10% 2.11% 2.20% 2.49% • Credit has been targeted at retail lending, leading to 2.32% 1.98% 2.00% 2.08% higher loan yields; • The PBOC increased medium and long- term liquidity through targeted cuts to reserve 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 requirement ratios (RRR) and through the use of Net interest spread Net interest margin medium-term lending facilities; • Ample liquidity benefited banks to varying degrees; • NIS and NIM for rural & city commercial banks are Joint-stock Commercial Banks affected by regional economic factors, so there is no consistent trend across the banks surveyed. 2.82% 2.73% 2.12% 2.01% 2.64% 2.56% 1.89% 1.98% 1.74% 1.92% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net interest spread Net interest margin Rural and City Commercial Banks 2.70% 2.42% 2.11% 2.13% 2.53% 2.26% 1.99% 2.07% 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net interest spread Net interest margin - 8 - China Banking Newsletter: 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Fee income from bank cards and electronic Breakdown of fee and commission income payments is up, but wealth management is Large Commercial Banks 2017 2018 declining Net fee and commission income as a whole registered Bank cards 29% 32% a year-on-year increase, despite falling in the joint-stock Wealth management 14% 10% and rural & city categories. The main trends are: Custody & fiduciary 8% 7% • under the influence of new asset management regulations, fee income from wealth management Financial consultation 9% 9% declined; Guarantee fee 6% 6% • growth in fee and commission income mainly came Settlement & clearing 12% 14% from bank cards and electronic payments; • the effect on rural & city banks was limited due to Agent commission 13% 12% lower card issuance.
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