The Georgian Road Map on Climate Change Adaptation 1 Foreword The National Association of Local Authorities of Georgia (NALAG) has been implementing a USAID-funded Initiative “Institutionalization of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Georgian Regions (ICCAMGR)” since 2012. The program is designed to foster climate change adaptation measures in regions of Georgia through the institutionalization of climate change adaptation and mitigation at the local and national levels by building the capacities of local authorities. The Project is a flagship initiative that integrates environmental and climate change considerations into the agendas of the local authorities of Georgia. The Project envisages establishment of special units on climate change, environment and sustainable agriculture at the level of self-government to ensure the implementation of a broad range of statutory functions of local authorities in terms of natural resources management, spatial planning and sustainable development stipulated in the “Organic Law of Georgia on Local Self-Government” and sectoral legislation. The Georgian Road Map on Climate Change Adaptation is an important contribution of the efforts of NALAG and the ICCAMGR project. 2 The Georgian Road Map on Climate Change Adaptation Tbilisi, 2016 This Publication is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of NALAG and authors of the texts and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. 3 List of Contributors Merab Gaprindashvili Co-author of Sections 3.5, 4.5, 5.5; also The National Environmental Agency of Georgia provided consultation on the relevant parts of the following sections: 3.1.2, 3.5.2, 3.6, 4.6.2 Emil Tsereteli, PhD. Co-author of Sections 3.5, 4.5, 5.5; also The National Environmental Agency of Georgia provided consultation on the relevant parts of the following sections: 3.1.2, 3.5.2, 3.6, 4.6.2 Irakli Megrelidze Co-author of Sections 3.5, 4.5, 5.5; also The National Environmental Agency of Georgia provided consultation on the relevant parts of the following sections: 3.1.2, 3.5.2, 3.6, 4.6.2 Giorgi Lominadze, PhD. Co-author of Sections 3.5, 4.5, 5.5; also Vakhushti Bagrationi Institute of Geography provided consultation on the relevant parts of the following sections: 3.1.2, 3.5.2, 3.6, 4.6.2 Natalia Shatirishvili Co-author of Sections 3.4, 4.4, 5.4 World Experience for Georgia (WEG) Murman Margvelashvili Co-author of Sections 3.4, 4.4, 5.4 World Experience for Georgia (WEG), Director Nino Kvernadze, MPP Author of Sections 3.3, 4.3 and 5.3 Independent Expert Giorgi Khomeriki Author of Sections 3.1, 4.1 and 5.1 Independent Expert Ina Vachiberidze Author of Sections 3.6, 4.6 and 5.6 Austrian Red Cross (AutRC) – “CFE II” Givi Gavardashvili, PhD. Author of Sections 3.2, 4.2 and 5.2 Georgian Technical University (GTU) Nato Kutaladze, PhD. Co-author of Section 1, Author of Sections The National Environmental Agency of Georgia 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 Mamuka Khurtsidze Co-author of Section 1 GIS Expert Group Leader GIS and RS Consulting Center, GeoGraphic Yuri Kolesnikov Co-author of Section 1, GIS Methodology GIS and RS Consulting Center, GeoGraphic Mamuka Gvilava Co-author of Section 1, Co-author of GIS and RS Consulting Center, GeoGraphic Sections 3.2.2, 4.2.3 and 4.2.4; GIS Methodology Tinatin Janelidze GIS Analysis GIS and RS Consulting Center, GeoGraphic Irakli Sokhadze GIS Analysis GIS and RS Consulting Center, GeoGraphic Bakur Beritashvili, PhD. Peer Review of Sections 3.2, 4.2 and 5.2 Georgian Technical University (GTU) 4 Merab Sharabidze Co-author of Sections 3.2.2, 4.2.3 and 4.2.4; Independent Expert and Peer Review of the Road Map Nina Shatberashvili Co-author of Sections 3.1.2, 4.1.3 and the Director, ICCAMGR relevant parts of 5.1 and 5.2; and Peer Review of the Road Map Maka Tsereteli Co-author of Sections 3.1.3, 4.1.5 and the Expert Team Leader, ICCAMGR relevant parts of 5.2; and Peer Review of the Road Map Ariela Shapiro, ICCAMGR Editing of Sections: 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 4.1, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6, 5.1, 5.3, 5.4 and 5.6. Julie de Rouville Editing of Sections: 1, 2, 3.5, 4.5, 5.4 and Introduction Final editing of the Road Map Alastair Watt Editing of Sections: 3.3, 4.3 and 5.3 Guy Edmunds Editing of Sections: 3.1, 3.6, 4.1, 4.6 and 5.6 Valeri Sarjveladze Translation of Sections 3.1, 3.3, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Nino Gabunia Translation of Sections 3.4, 4.4, 5.4 Nino Tskhadadze Translation of Sections 3.6, 4.6, 5.6 Irine Lomashvili Translation of Sections 3.5, 4.5, 5.5 Design: “ULTRA Group” Publishing House: Color Ltd ISBN: 987-9941-0-8676-2 5 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 14 Overview 14 Relevance to EU-Georgia Association Agreement 15 Relevance to guiding national policy documents 17 1. METHODOLOGY 20 1.1. Assessment flowchart 20 1.2. Definitions 21 1.3. Indicators and indices 22 1.3.1. Exposure 22 1.3.2. Sensitivity 23 1.3.3. Impacts 25 1.3.4. Adaptability 25 1.3.5. Vulnerability 25 1.4 Analysis and visualization 26 1.4.1. Normalization 26 1.4.2. Aggregation and weighting 27 1.4.3. Weights 28 1.4.4. Integration 29 1.5. Data processing 30 1.5.1. Data collection 30 1.5.2. Data preprocessing, documenting and visualization 31 2. PATTERNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACROSS GEORGIA 33 2.1. Climate characteristics in Georgia 33 2.2. Climate change modeling and forecast parameters 33 2.3. Predicted climate change maps 34 3. SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTORS 77 3.1 Sensitivity of the tourism sector, cultural heritage and protected areas 77 3.1.1. Tourism sector 78 Relevance 78 Existing studies 78 Sensitivity indicators 80 3.1.2. Cultural heritage 81 Relevance 81 Existing studies 81 Sensitivity indicators 82 3.1.3. Protected areas 84 Relevance 84 Existing studies 85 Sensitivity indicators 85 3.2 Sensitivity of agricultural sector and forest ecosystems to climate change 87 3.2.1 Agriculture 88 6 Relevance 88 Existing studies 89 Sensitivity indicators 90 3.2.2 Forest ecosystems 98 Relevance 98 Existing studies 99 Sensitivity indicators 100 3.3. Sensitivity of the industrial sector to climate change 103 Relevance 104 Existing studies 105 Sensitivity indicators 106 3.4 Sensitivity of the energy sector to climate change 108 Relevance 108 Existing studies 108 Sensitivity indicators 109 Sensitivity of energy infrastructure 111 3.5. Sensitivity of municipalities, infrastructure and settlements to natural hazards 115 3.5.1 Sensitivity of municipalities to natural hazards 115 Relevance 115 Existing studies 116 Sensitivity indicators 116 3.5.2 Sensitivity of infrastructure to natural hazards 119 Relevance 119 Existing studies 120 Sensitivity indicators 120 3.5.3 Sensitivity of settlements to natural hazards 122 Relevance 122 Existing studies 122 Sensitivity indicators 123 3.6 Sensitivity of the social sector 128 Relevance 128 Existing studies 129 Sensitivity indicators 130 4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GEORGIA’S MUNICIPALITIES 162 4.1. Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector, cultural heritage and protected areas 162 4.2.1. Impacts of climate change on tourism 162 4.1.2. Impacts of climate change on cultural heritage 163 4.1.3. Impacts of climate change on protected areas 164 4. 2 Impacts of climate change on agriculture and forest ecosystems 165 4.2.1 Methodology of assessment of potential impact of climate change on agriculture 165 4.2.2. Impacts of climate change on agriculture 166 4.2.3 Methodology of assessment of potential climate change impact on forest ecosystems 168 4.2.4 Impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems 168 4.3. Impacts of climate change on the industrial sector 169 4.3.1. Impacts of climate change on agricultural products processing 169 4.3.2. Impacts of climate change on the construction sector 170 4.3.3. Impacts of climate change on mining and processing sectors 170 4.4 Impacts of climate change on the energy sector 172 4.4.1 Methodology of assessment of climate change impacts on the energy sector 172 4.4.2 Impacts of climate change on energy supply and energy consumption 172 4.5. Impacts of climate change related to natural hazards 177 7 4.6. Impacts of climate change on the social sector 178 4.6.1 Methodology of the climate change impact assessment 178 4.6.2 Climate change impact assessment of the social sector 180 5. RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTIONS FOR OVERCOMING SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE 212 5.1 Recommendations for the tourism sector, cultural heritage sites and protected areas 212 5.1.2 Recommendations to be implemented at the national level 212 5.1.2. Recommendations to be implemented at the municipal level 214 5.2. Recommendations for overcoming socio-economic risks in the agricultural and forestry sectors 216 5.2.1 Recommendations to be implemented at the national and municipal levels in the agricultural sector: 216 5.2.2 Recommendations to be implemented at the national level in the forestry sector and for ecosystems protection 217 5.2.3. Recommendations to be implemented at the municipal level in the forestry sector and for ecosystems protection 218 5.3.