Pre-publication version, accepted to The Energy Journal, 2020 Avoiding Pitfalls in China’s Electricity Sector Reforms† * ** Michael R. Davidson and Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga China has recently reinvigorated reforms to its electricity sector, focusing on increasing the role of markets and improving regulation. While restructuring an electricity sector is difficult and can require years of detailed planning, China’s approach relies upon broad central guidelines with many details and initiatives left to provincial governments. We assess the current state of reform efforts through the lens of five “pitfalls” based on well-established regulatory economics literature and international lessons, focusing on contract structure, system operation, and regulation. We find that while market efforts are likely to achieve efficiency gains with respect to the planned system, they may fall short of crucial functions of a market, such as incentivizing flexibility given increasing renewable energy penetrations. Making markets work will likely require a stronger centralization of market design and regulatory oversight authorities. Keywords: market liberalization, electricity restructuring, renewable energy, China JEL Codes: D47, L94, O14, Q41 † Pre-publication version. For final version in The Energy Journal, see: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.41.3.mdav. Please cite as: Davidson, Michael R., and Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga. (2020). “Avoiding Pitfalls in Reforming China’s Electricity Sector.” The Energy Journal Vol. 41(3). Copyright, International Association of Energy Economics (IAEE). * Corresponding author: School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego. Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093. Email:
[email protected] ** Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR), Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 1 Pre-publication version, accepted to The Energy Journal, 2020 1.