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Electricity Supply Industry Restructuring Electricity Supply Industry Restructuring: Options for the Organisation of Government Assets April 2016 TRADE & INDUSTRIAL POLICY STRATEGIES Document Reference: Teljeur, E., Sheik Dasarath, F., Kolobe, T., Da Costa, D., 2016, Electricity Supply Industry Restructuring: Options for the Organisation of Government Assets, Pretoria and Johannesburg: Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies and Business Leadership South Africa. Date: April 2016 Contact Information Genesis Analytics (Pty) Ltd Office 3, 50 Sixth Road Hyde Park, 2196, Johannesburg South Africa Post to: PO Box 413431, Craighall, 2024 Johannesburg, South Africa Tel: +27 (11) 994 7000 Fax: +27 (11) 994 7099 www.genesis-analytics.com Authors Ethèl Teljeur, Fathima Sheik, Tshekishi Kolobe, Danita da Costa Contact Person Ethèl Teljeur Partner - Competition and Regulation email | [email protected] switchboard | +27 (0)11 994 7000 mobile | +27 (0)82 493 0251 ii Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 1 2. THE SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTRICITY SECTOR LANDSCAPE............ 3 2.1. Electricity supply industry reforms in South Africa ................................... 3 2.2. Current structure of the electricity industry in South Africa ...................... 7 2.3. Drivers for the restructuring of the South African electricity industry ....... 8 2.4. Summary of reform agenda for the South African electricity supply industry ................................................................................................. 17 3. REFORM DRIVERS AND MODELS OF REFORM ............................... 19 3.1. Drivers of reforms in international jurisdictions ...................................... 19 3.2. Sequencing of reforms and Models of electricity sector reform ............. 22 3.2.1. The eras of electricity sector reform ......................................................... 24 3.2.2. Models of reform ...................................................................................... 27 The single buyer model ...................................................................................... 27 The wholesale competition model ...................................................................... 30 The retail competition model............................................................................... 33 3.2.3. Utility restructuring .................................................................................... 37 3.2.4. Planning and procurement during and after reforms ............................... 40 4. THE POSSIBLE INDUSTRY RESTRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SECTOR ................. 42 4.1. Possible industry restructuring alternatives ........................................... 44 4.2. The evaluation criteria .......................................................................... 48 4.3. Assessment of restructuring alternatives against the evaluation criteria 52 4.3.1. A.1 Status quo .......................................................................................... 52 4.3.2. A.2 Status quo with IPPs able to sell directly to distributors .................... 54 4.3.3. A.3 Status quo with legal separation ........................................................ 55 4.3.4. B.1: Introduction of Independent system and market operator (ISMO) (as per ISMO Bill) ........................................................................................... 59 4.3.5. B.2: Introduction of Transmission system operator (TSO) ....................... 61 4.3.6. B.3: State generation companies and private sector in generation ......... 64 4.3.7. C. Wholesale competition with power exchange pool (multiple buyers) .. 65 4.3.8. D. Retail competition ................................................................................ 68 4.4. The allocation of the Planning and procurement functions .................... 70 4.5. Considerations for implementation of any reforms ................................ 72 4.6. Summary .............................................................................................. 73 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................ 79 APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE............... 85 European Union ............................................................................................. 85 Kenya ............................................................................................................ 88 iii China. ............................................................................................................ 90 Brazil …………………………………………………………………………………93 APPENDIX B: THE SOUTH AFRICAN EXPERIENCE OF SECTOR REFORM IN THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY AND LESSONS FOR THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR ..................................... 98 List of Figures Figure 1: Implemented and planned reforms in the South African electricity sector ................ 6 Figure 2: Structure of the South African electricity sector ........................................................ 7 Figure 3: Drivers of reform in South Africa ............................................................................... 8 Figure 4: Unplanned outages (2012-2014) ............................................................................... 9 Figure 5: Peak demand (MW), 2007 – 2014 .......................................................................... 11 Figure 6: Eskom nominal electricity prices (2006/07-2017/18) .............................................. 15 Figure 7: Summary of reform agenda for the South African electricity supply industry ......... 18 Figure 8: Traditional electricity sector structure ...................................................................... 20 Figure 9: The sequencing of electricity sector reform ............................................................ 23 Figure 10: Different waves of electricity supply industry reform ............................................. 27 Figure 11: The single buyer model ......................................................................................... 28 Figure 12: Central purchasing model with direct sales ........................................................... 28 Figure 13: The wholesale competition model (multiple buyers) ............................................. 31 Figure 14: The retail competition model ................................................................................. 34 Figure 15: Accounting separation ........................................................................................... 38 Figure 16: Functional separation ............................................................................................ 38 Figure 17: Legal separation .................................................................................................... 39 Figure 18: Ownership unbundling ........................................................................................... 39 Figure 19: Summary of desired industry outcomes ................................................................ 43 Figure 20: Two key characteristic alternatives to the existing structure of the industry ......... 44 Figure 21: Different industry restructuring alternatives for the South African electricity supply industry ................................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 22: Evaluation criteria of the different restructuring alternatives ................................. 51 Figure 23: Current South African electricity supply industry structure ................................... 54 Figure 24: Structure of Eskom after legal separation ............................................................. 56 Figure 25: Industry structure under A.3 – Single buyer model with legal separation ............. 57 Figure 26: Eskom structure under B.1 Introduction of ISMO .................................................. 59 Figure 27: Industry structure under B.1 Introduction of ISMO ................................................ 61 Figure 28: Eskom structure under B.2 Introduction of a TSO ................................................ 62 Figure 29: Industry structure under B.2 Introduction of a TSO ............................................... 63 Figure 30: Industry structure under B.3 State generation companies and private sector in generation ............................................................................................................................... 65 Figure 31: Industry structure under C. Wholesale competition with power exchange pool ... 67 Figure 32: Industry structure under D. Retail competition ...................................................... 69 Figure 33: Structural reforms to the electricity sector in China ............................................... 92 Figure 34: Reforms in the South African telecommunication sector ...................................... 98 List of Tables Table 1: Options for different market structures ..................................................................... 36 Table 2: Summary of pros and cons of reform models .......................................................... 37 Table 3: Summary of planning and procurement ................................................................... 41 Table 4: Allocation of planning and procurement functions under the different alternatives .. 71 Table 5: Summary of different restructuring alternatives against the evaluation criteria ......
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