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Electric Vehicles PwC global power & utilities Capturing value from disruption Technology and innovation in an era of energy transformation www.pwc.com/utilities Contents Introduction 3 Executive summary 4 Technologies and disruption 8 High-efficiency gas turbines 9 Small modular reactors 10 Distributed generation 11 Micro-grids and smart grid networks 13 Energy storage 15 Electric vehicles 16 Beyond the meter 18 Early-stage technologies 20 Possible futures 21 ‘Losing touch’ 23 ‘Off grid’ 24 ‘Mobile and virtual’ 25 ‘Data rich’ 26 ‘Scaled down’ 27 Scenario round-up 28 A whole new emphasis on innovation 29 Winning in tomorrow’s market 32 This report has been written by a team from Strategy& in conjunction with PwC’s global power and utilities centre of excellence to assist companies in the fast-changing power utilities environment. It is part of a series of PwC reports examining the various market and business models that could emerge in the power sector, the implications of the new energy ecosystem for customer strategies, and the increasing importance of innovation for success in the sector.1 1 http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-utilities-mining/power-utilities/ publications.html Introduction In the next 20 years, more innovation will occur in the utilities sector than has occurred to date since the time of Thomas Edison. Whether companies enjoy the promise of this innovation depends on how they embrace the potential of new technology as the vanguard for industry evolution. The pace of technology-driven change As today’s utility CEOs think about In this report we look at the is accelerating well beyond the speed how to reposition their company for technologies that are likely to drive the power sector believed possible. success in this rapidly changing industry disruption and change in the utilities No aspect of the value chain – from landscape, they need to work closely sector over the next 20 years and what upstream generation, through grid and with their leadership teams to discuss they mean for incumbents and new network operations to beyond the meter the following questions: players in the market. Much of our focus – is unaffected. The utilities sector will and examples come from the United develop very different performance • How might disruptive technologies States but the trends and changes roles, technology landscapes, customer impact our business over the next described are applicable to many other platforms and business models than five to ten years? parts of the world as well. those that served it over its first 100 • What should we do to capture value years. From a scale-driven, centralised from these disruptive technologies? The report is part of a series of PwC initiatives looking at the impact of and standardised model, the sector • How do we leverage disruptive energy transformation. In an earlier is set to evolve to one that is digital, technologies to create competitive report, The Road Ahead: gaining distributed and personalised. advantage? momentum from energy transformation, Technology economics will drive part • What can we do to build a we discussed the various market and of this shift and be complemented sustainable innovation capability business models that could emerge. This by changes in customer behaviours that supports new business models? was followed by Customer engagement in that reshape the provider–consumer an era of energy transformation in which Identifying strategies to manage these relationship. Those companies that we examined how the energy ecosystem challenges should add significant value, recognise and embrace this shift will is evolving and the implications for but evaluating the questions at just find success as a valued, innovative customer strategy. In this latest report one point in time is not sufficient. Key solutions provider to their customers we look at the scenarios that could assumptions and the market conditions and partners. Those that fail to arise from the fast pace of technological that will affect the discussion will recognise this new technology-driven evolution. We paint a picture of how five change, so utility executives must market model will find themselves possible future scenarios (among many figure out ways to conduct an ongoing forfeiting their natural rights to grid possibilities) could unfold and affect dialogue. Also, leaders may want to enhancement and to the customer utilities as technology evolution pushes think about potential scenarios for relationship. forward. And we conclude with a look some questions if there is a high level at what it will take to win in tomorrow’s of uncertainty around key elements market and, in particular, the need for that greatly influence the future. We utilities to think very differently about will revisit these questions later in how to embrace innovation as a market this report and share perspectives for enabler. utility executives to consider as they think about the impact of disruptive technologies on the future of their business. Capturing value from disruption 3 Executive summary The last 100 years have witnessed an explosion of technology as the industrial revolution progressed into the era of the consumer. Technology development windows continued to shrink while markets grew at increasingly faster rates than occurred in the past. But the power sector has not kept pace with other industries and has been neither a leader nor a fast follower of technology adoption. The sector has maintained a natural achieve 50 million customers, it only reluctance to ‘jump’ into new technology took 18 years for personal computers, without extended periods of testing 15 years for mobile phones and ten and evaluation – sometimes lasting years for the internet to achieve the decades. But in the immediate period same level of customer adoption. ahead, utility companies will need to And consider the short time frames completely change their approach to for various applications, games and innovation and technology adoption or novelty devices to reach similar levels. face becoming increasingly sidelined as This now happens in single-digit years a series of transformative waves hits the as technology-based product and sector. application value is made available to consumers at internet speed. The accelerating pace of change Disruptive technologies A look back on various technologies that have appeared since the 1960s Numerous technologies are emerging illustrates the slow pace of technology that could dramatically affect the future deployment among utilities. Whether of the utilities industry and current automated generation control in the costs. We focus on those that appear 1960s or advanced gas turbines in the more likely to be commercialised within 1980s, it took 15-20 years for utilities the next ten years and could have to widely adopt what was available a widespread impact on traditional in the market. Similarly, control and elements of power infrastructure (see digital relays were available for system panel). These technologies are discussed operations in the 1980s but again it took in the first half of this report, with 15-20 years for this technology to widely a look at both their economics and take hold in the grid and network. likely proliferation. The choice of these And advanced metering rollout is still technologies is also supported by many a long way off high penetration, even of the findings of a study on the future after more than ten years of technology of energy systems in Germany, Europe availability. and the world by the year 2040, which included in-depth consultation with Contrast this pace of adoption to what 80 recognised international experts has happened in new industries over from the energy sector and related the last several decades. While it took industries.2 more than 55 years for telephony to 2 Delphi Energy Future 2040, Delphi-study on the Future of Energy Systems in Germany, Europe and the World by the Year 2040, German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG (PwC), 2016. 4 PwC global power & utilities www.pwc.com/utilities process, interpret, and convert these Figure 1: Technologies with big impact potential – next ten years data to offer knowledge-based, value- added energy management services to High-efficiency customers. gas turbines Early stage ‘Scaled down’ – large business technologies customers start to install their own Small modular decentralised and scalable generation reactors for their own usage. As technology continues to progress, smaller and Beyond smaller commercial and industrial the meter Technologies customers migrate toward a new era with big impact Distributed of ‘site-based’ generation. Traditional potential generation utilities see a diminished role with their next ten years larger customers and are not able to avoid disintermediation for their largest Electric load entities. vehicles Micro-grids and smart For each of these scenarios we look at grid networks the implications for utility companies Energy storage and their possible responses. Many of the technological developments add to the real threat of separation between utility companies and their customers. And when customers determine they are willing to consider or outright adopt emerging technology alternatives, For utilities, this accelerated pace of wholesale energy at the cheapest price they will seek out these products and change that comes with technological with an energy ‘hub’ performing all services from wherever they can. If the change is both an opportunity and a routine and value-added functions for sources of this information are those threat. As customers become more the consumer. offering the technology or products aware of technology possibilities that themselves, rather than the utility, then ‘Off grid’ – the centre of gravity can provide useful applications in their disintermediation between the utility shifts away from the main grid to on- lives, they are quick to seek out these and its network and its customer is not site generation and storage as well offerings.
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