Japan's Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN
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Japan’s Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN Syafril Hidayat Padjadjaran University, Indonesia Abstract Japan has developed a new security policy against China in East China Sea, which has increased tension in that region. Japan’s new leadership under Shinzo Abe, who has conservative political view, has unbeatable policy against China’s hegemony. Abe revised Japan Self-Defence Forces role in the Japanese Constitution by making critical amendments on particular articles, which should be seen as Japan’s bargaining power against China. The two major powers in East China Sea can be seen as security dilemma of other states. Pursuit of power and hegemony will influence other major actors in the global world system and also small states. Japan’s new security policy is as a renaissance of Japan’s hegemony or pursuit of power in East China Sea. By using bargaining model of war, Japan’s security policy will determine overall situation in South China Sea or particularly in East China Sea: whether it will remain of high threat or balance of threat rather than balance of power, or it will face possible conflict in the future. Keywords: Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, bargaining model, ASEAN. Introduction its allies, which could be seen in the KCNA editorial that called Abe 'Asian Hitler' and China’s airspace claim over the Rodong Sinmun editorial that called Abe Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China 'maniac militarists' (Kompas, February 6, Sea has raised political tensions in the 2012, p.10). Abe’s visit to the shrine also region. China showed off its existence as a raised US’s and UK’s responses. Both country that was at odds with Japan and the countries paid more respect to China than West. Seeing China’s offensive pursuit of Japan about the political impact of visit to power in the region, Japan quickly the Yasukuni Shrine. British's Ambassador responded to the situation by taking various to Japan suggested Abe not to visit the strategic measures in order to balance. shrine. American Ambassador to Japan also Japan performed a symbolic diplomatic step suggested Japan not to exacerbate the with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s situation which could further raise tensions historical visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. in East Asia. Yasukuni Shrine is the final resting place of Furthermore, Japan had also set up a Japanese wartime heroes, including special panel headed by Shunji Yanai, fourteen key figures who took former Japanese ambassador to US, which responsibility for World War II. This step discussed about the Japan Self-Defence alone had boiled relations with China and Forces role in the Japanese Constitution. Journal of ASEAN Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1 (2014), pp. 42–48 © 2014 by CBDS Bina Nusantara University and Indonesian Association for International Relations ISSN 2338-1361 print / ISSN2338-1353 electronic Journal of ASEAN Studies 43 Japan had been avoiding collective defence Conceptual Theory: Bargaining Model after the World War II. However, the current draft proposed that Japan could Bargaining model can be said as a new provide assistance to its allies. It was a model in the analysis of politics and war. major strategic change of Japanese foreign Although politics and war are two different policy, particularly related to the East China things, but Carl von by Clausewitz had Sea, and might be expanded to other expressed that “war is politics by other regions such as Southeast Asian because means”. The bargaining model is an Japan’s huge investments and donations in analytical model that is still being debated the region. and still requires interdisciplinary Even though China and Japan (with the enrichment. This model also still needs to be US) seemed to be at enmity with each other, tested primarily related to the ability uniquely the US as Japan’s ally also estimates, the completion estimates, and the continued to provide assistance to China as exchange of interests between the two rival well as to Japan. The US had been provided groups (Reiter, 2003). assistance that led to environmental The bargaining model is traditionally improvement, Tibet issue, and linked closely to the economic behaviour in democratization on China’s continent. trade. The bargaining process is carried out USAID assistance had been channeled by at least two actors in order to reach directly to the citizens of China. agreement on a treaty (Kennan & Wilson, Facing the East China Sea conflict, Japan 1993). The bargaining model itself in politics also had to pay such a large order to buy and war is a new alternative in the analysis. the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The advantage The bargaining model focuses on the was the economic growth that Japan had analysis of the causes, prosecution, targeted by its expansion in Asia. Besides, termination and the consequences in a war Japan is also seeking to maintain its trade as a process of theoretical consistency transactions using Yen exchange rate. By (Reiter, 2003). promoting the growth of the Japanese All factors are debated scientifically, as economy, this policy will benefit greatly in an integral part altogether or separately. terms of influence and US support. Some researchers believe there are possibly Similarly, Japan will provide an two, or one, factors in a single case. opportunity to renew the role and posture Schelling (1960) focused on the causes, of its military. On the other hand, China while Kecskemeti (1958), Ikle (1991), and will make efforts to expand its military role Pillar (1983) focused on the termination. and growing influence of its ideology to Blainey (1973) studied on the causes and maintain its national interests. Relations consequences (Reiter, 2003). Those point of between Japan and China, however, remain views explain conflicts in Europe and a game of utilizing bargaining power. Western colonization of Africa and Asia. Therefore, it is the most proper to examine Thomas Schelling (1960) stated that using bargaining model to measure rivalry conflict situations are essentially bargaining between those states. situations. So this model is increasingly constructed and applied in the dynamics of government and legislators in some countries (Reiter, 2003). This model still requires ongoing enrichment from the disciplines of war, International Relations, psychology, public policy, etc. The 44 Japan’s Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN conceptual theory of bargaining model can destruction of the opponents’ will, be applied in examining Japanese foreign destruction of civilian property and others, policy reconstruction under Shinzo Abe’s it is justification of war. In the case of administration. between Japan and China, occupation of In the bargaining model, the causes of Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands unilaterally by war rest on three conditions, explicitly: 1) China or Japan can be seen as justification the absence of an agreement between the of war and bargaining model is applied. warring parties, 2) the lack of agreement to Thus the military had been used as part avoid battle in the future, and 3) inability of of the bargaining process to achieve the bargaining to prevent war if the disputed goals. Even though open conflict between items remain unresolved (Fearon, 1995, Japan and China has never happened yet, 1998). the Abe’s administration concerns To look at Abe’s conservative policy, it regarding China had raised the steps taken is more appropriate to use the Realist by Japan leading to a new balance of power. perspective in the study of International Abe’s concerns were well-founded as a Relations, in which a state perceives other result of the fact that China had been states as threats. Thus, states try to achieve arresting fishermen in the Senkaku/Diaoyu balance of power in the international system Islands and installing its flag on the Paracel to survive in the midst of the magnitude of and Spratly Islands. the pressure / interest of other states. In the bargaining model, termination is achieved when: 1) the troops reached a total occupation or destruction of the enemy that The Absence of an Agreement between cannot survive as a total of victory Japan and China achievement, and 2) forces can reduce uncertainty about the abilities or the The cause of Japan’s renaissance was the destruction of the opponent. Those two absence of an agreement between China factors have materialized in the form of and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands China’s Air Defense Identification Zone after World War II. China had never wanted (ADIZ) over the Senkaku/Diaoyu. this issue to be resolved through Japan assumed that China would international institutions. Even though expand its territory. Abe finally seeked to Japan had bought the region, the aerial reposition over military and defence policy territorial boundaries claimed by Japan and by trying to gradually amend the Japanese China are overlapping. Constitution’s Article 9 relating to the role On another topic, China has of the Japan Self-Defence Forces by calling continuously been demanding for for a revision of Article 96 specifying the prosecution of Japanese war crimes. But process for making amendments. It can lead Japan considered that the wartime Japanese to a new perspective on the pacific soldiers and officers had been prosecuted constitution that has prevailed so far. Thus for their war crimes. Implicitly, Japanese the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands seem like protest against China’s and other countries’ hotspot for both Japan and China and psychological distress was symbolized by remain having overlapping claim over it. Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. In the bargaining model, consequences Prosecutions, in bargaining model, are focus more on post-war stability required. made since war or conflict justified by the The longer a war lasts, the longer the peace forces involved. When the forces try to created will last (Smith & Stam, 2002).