Japan’s Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN
Syafril Hidayat Padjadjaran University, Indonesia
Abstract Japan has developed a new security policy against China in East China Sea, which has increased tension in that region. Japan’s new leadership under Shinzo Abe, who has conservative political view, has unbeatable policy against China’s hegemony. Abe revised Japan Self-Defence Forces role in the Japanese Constitution by making critical amendments on particular articles, which should be seen as Japan’s bargaining power against China. The two major powers in East China Sea can be seen as security dilemma of other states. Pursuit of power and hegemony will influence other major actors in the global world system and also small states. Japan’s new security policy is as a renaissance of Japan’s hegemony or pursuit of power in East China Sea. By using bargaining model of war, Japan’s security policy will determine overall situation in South China Sea or particularly in East China Sea: whether it will remain of high threat or balance of threat rather than balance of power, or it will face possible conflict in the future.
Keywords: Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, bargaining model, ASEAN.
Introduction its allies, which could be seen in the KCNA editorial that called Abe 'Asian Hitler' and China’s airspace claim over the Rodong Sinmun editorial that called Abe Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China 'maniac militarists' (Kompas, February 6, Sea has raised political tensions in the 2012, p.10). Abe’s visit to the shrine also region. China showed off its existence as a raised US’s and UK’s responses. Both country that was at odds with Japan and the countries paid more respect to China than West. Seeing China’s offensive pursuit of Japan about the political impact of visit to power in the region, Japan quickly the Yasukuni Shrine. British's Ambassador responded to the situation by taking various to Japan suggested Abe not to visit the strategic measures in order to balance. shrine. American Ambassador to Japan also Japan performed a symbolic diplomatic step suggested Japan not to exacerbate the with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s situation which could further raise tensions historical visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. in East Asia. Yasukuni Shrine is the final resting place of Furthermore, Japan had also set up a Japanese wartime heroes, including special panel headed by Shunji Yanai, fourteen key figures who took former Japanese ambassador to US, which responsibility for World War II. This step discussed about the Japan Self-Defence alone had boiled relations with China and Forces role in the Japanese Constitution.
Journal of ASEAN Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1 (2014), pp. 42–48
© 2014 by CBDS Bina Nusantara University and Indonesian Association for International Relations ISSN 2338-1361 print / ISSN2338-1353 electronic
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Japan had been avoiding collective defence Conceptual Theory: Bargaining Model after the World War II. However, the current draft proposed that Japan could Bargaining model can be said as a new provide assistance to its allies. It was a model in the analysis of politics and war. major strategic change of Japanese foreign Although politics and war are two different policy, particularly related to the East China things, but Carl von by Clausewitz had Sea, and might be expanded to other expressed that “war is politics by other regions such as Southeast Asian because means”. The bargaining model is an Japan’s huge investments and donations in analytical model that is still being debated the region. and still requires interdisciplinary Even though China and Japan (with the enrichment. This model also still needs to be US) seemed to be at enmity with each other, tested primarily related to the ability uniquely the US as Japan’s ally also estimates, the completion estimates, and the continued to provide assistance to China as exchange of interests between the two rival well as to Japan. The US had been provided groups (Reiter, 2003). assistance that led to environmental The bargaining model is traditionally improvement, Tibet issue, and linked closely to the economic behaviour in democratization on China’s continent. trade. The bargaining process is carried out USAID assistance had been channeled by at least two actors in order to reach directly to the citizens of China. agreement on a treaty (Kennan & Wilson, Facing the East China Sea conflict, Japan 1993). The bargaining model itself in politics also had to pay such a large order to buy and war is a new alternative in the analysis. the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The advantage The bargaining model focuses on the was the economic growth that Japan had analysis of the causes, prosecution, targeted by its expansion in Asia. Besides, termination and the consequences in a war Japan is also seeking to maintain its trade as a process of theoretical consistency transactions using Yen exchange rate. By (Reiter, 2003). promoting the growth of the Japanese All factors are debated scientifically, as economy, this policy will benefit greatly in an integral part altogether or separately. terms of influence and US support. Some researchers believe there are possibly Similarly, Japan will provide an two, or one, factors in a single case. opportunity to renew the role and posture Schelling (1960) focused on the causes, of its military. On the other hand, China while Kecskemeti (1958), Ikle (1991), and will make efforts to expand its military role Pillar (1983) focused on the termination. and growing influence of its ideology to Blainey (1973) studied on the causes and maintain its national interests. Relations consequences (Reiter, 2003). Those point of between Japan and China, however, remain views explain conflicts in Europe and a game of utilizing bargaining power. Western colonization of Africa and Asia. Therefore, it is the most proper to examine Thomas Schelling (1960) stated that using bargaining model to measure rivalry conflict situations are essentially bargaining between those states. situations. So this model is increasingly constructed and applied in the dynamics of government and legislators in some countries (Reiter, 2003). This model still requires ongoing enrichment from the disciplines of war, International Relations, psychology, public policy, etc. The 44 Japan’s Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN
conceptual theory of bargaining model can destruction of the opponents’ will, be applied in examining Japanese foreign destruction of civilian property and others, policy reconstruction under Shinzo Abe’s it is justification of war. In the case of administration. between Japan and China, occupation of In the bargaining model, the causes of Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands unilaterally by war rest on three conditions, explicitly: 1) China or Japan can be seen as justification the absence of an agreement between the of war and bargaining model is applied. warring parties, 2) the lack of agreement to Thus the military had been used as part avoid battle in the future, and 3) inability of of the bargaining process to achieve the bargaining to prevent war if the disputed goals. Even though open conflict between items remain unresolved (Fearon, 1995, Japan and China has never happened yet, 1998). the Abe’s administration concerns To look at Abe’s conservative policy, it regarding China had raised the steps taken is more appropriate to use the Realist by Japan leading to a new balance of power. perspective in the study of International Abe’s concerns were well-founded as a Relations, in which a state perceives other result of the fact that China had been states as threats. Thus, states try to achieve arresting fishermen in the Senkaku/Diaoyu balance of power in the international system Islands and installing its flag on the Paracel to survive in the midst of the magnitude of and Spratly Islands. the pressure / interest of other states. In the bargaining model, termination is achieved when: 1) the troops reached a total occupation or destruction of the enemy that The Absence of an Agreement between cannot survive as a total of victory Japan and China achievement, and 2) forces can reduce uncertainty about the abilities or the The cause of Japan’s renaissance was the destruction of the opponent. Those two absence of an agreement between China factors have materialized in the form of and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands China’s Air Defense Identification Zone after World War II. China had never wanted (ADIZ) over the Senkaku/Diaoyu. this issue to be resolved through Japan assumed that China would international institutions. Even though expand its territory. Abe finally seeked to Japan had bought the region, the aerial reposition over military and defence policy territorial boundaries claimed by Japan and by trying to gradually amend the Japanese China are overlapping. Constitution’s Article 9 relating to the role On another topic, China has of the Japan Self-Defence Forces by calling continuously been demanding for for a revision of Article 96 specifying the prosecution of Japanese war crimes. But process for making amendments. It can lead Japan considered that the wartime Japanese to a new perspective on the pacific soldiers and officers had been prosecuted constitution that has prevailed so far. Thus for their war crimes. Implicitly, Japanese the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands seem like protest against China’s and other countries’ hotspot for both Japan and China and psychological distress was symbolized by remain having overlapping claim over it. Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. In the bargaining model, consequences Prosecutions, in bargaining model, are focus more on post-war stability required. made since war or conflict justified by the The longer a war lasts, the longer the peace forces involved. When the forces try to created will last (Smith & Stam, 2002). Yet reach one or more tasks such as the this stage has not happened until now. Journal of ASEAN Studies 45
Retrospective war wounds between the two intentions were manifested in Abe’s visit to countries had led to no absolute agreement the Yasukuni Shrine. over the victims of violence due to war As a reminder, Japan had stated that the between Chinese and Japanese. After war, first step of foreign relations with ASEAN Japan has also been claiming to be a victim was based on good intentions and heart-to- of war crimes. heart relations which had been conducted since 1974 and marked by 1977 visit by Japanese then Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda War May Occur as a Result of Lack of to some ASEAN countries (Green, Agreement to Avoid Battle in the Future 2001:170). Fukuda built confidence that the Japan-ASEAN relations would be Foreign policy depends on who holds conducted without any desire to restore power (Yanyan, 2007:3; Mas’oed, 1994:184). Japan's past hegemony in the region (Green, During his visit to Washington, Shinzo Abe 2001). stated that “Japan is back”. With great support from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Abe has a large curiosity to revise Bargaining Cannot Prevent War if the the Japanese Constitution’s Article 96 to Disputed Items Remain Unresolved revise Article 9 in the pacific Constitution. Public who support the right wing Abe got high support of around 72% groups have high expectations of the Japan votes in the last election. Indeed, it showed Self-Defence Forces reformation. The the amount of Japanese people’s interests Japanese Constitution has been perceived as and expectations on his term. Abe programs abnormal amidst the complexity of the in the field of economics known as dynamics in the East China Sea and the role 'Abenomics' had shown progress and of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces globally gained the trust of the Japanese public. The (Cooney, 2002). program was not only related to economic Abe acted to increase Japanese growth but also provided continuation of nationalism by reforming School Education Japan's strategic steps to overcome Law. Furthermore, Abe will also upgrade deflation, which previously raised difficulty defense institution into a ministry level. for Japan’s economic growth. Ultimately, Abe will revise the pacific The deflation brought Abe’s Constitution. Aside from these changes, the administration to execute three arrows LDP had also submitted a draft of changes policy in economy sector, namely: that could be considered exceeding security increasing efforts to prevent inflation by issues, which were freedom of the press, providing grants amounting up to $1.4 return of the Emperor as Head of State, and billion; injecting funds amounting up to Japanese nationalism regarding Japanese $116 billion (this policy affected Japan’s flag and national anthem. These can be seen economic growth positively by 4.1% in the as a form of return to the Meiji Restoration first quarter of Abe’s term as Prime Era (1930). Minister); and developing economic growth This policy resulted in the emergence of strategies with emphasis on technology Japanese fascism a decade later in Southeast development, media, and enhancement of Asia, especially as the prologue of World the role of female workers. War II in East Asia and Southeast Asia. The Current Abe’s economic policy had been symbols of resurrection and Japanese predicted earlier. Japan had many difficulties in determining the right choice 46 Japan’s Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN
over domestic economic policy and post- but will also have implications for Japanese Cold War foreign policy. Japan's global pacifist Constitution. economic power had been very efficient and Japan's efforts for the reconciliation of it becomes the second largest economic the Japanese-Korean war victims also had power in the world, but its domestic an influence on its relations with South economic policies had remained inefficiency Korea and the US. This reconciliation (Cooney, 2002: Chapter 4). brought Japan to establish diplomatic On the other hand, Japanese Chief relations with North Korea. However, the Secretary of Cabinet, Yoshihide Suga, had US is still containing China limited to its demonstrated a rejection to Abe’s policy allies, such as North Korea. that was considered to be able to shake Amid many pressures from other states, Japan's foreign relations and the situation especially China, Japan desires for survival over the East Asian region. Departing from in order to maintain its sovereignty, the bargaining model, Japan will then seek integrity, and national interests. China and to increase its bargaining power in the eyes North Korea's demands for prosecution of of China and North Korea. Japanese war crimes in the 1950’s Japan- The US had granted political support by Korean War and the 1930’s Sino-Japanese flying a B-52 aircraft over the War and the provision of comfort women Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. This showed the (geisha) for Japanese troops had given US’s seriousness in supporting its partners psychological pressures for Japan in in East Asia. This is the beginning of the international relations. Even though Japan operation procedure to prepare if an had given compensation, the issues escalation of the current conflict increases. remained a burden in its interaction with The US had been supporting Japan's efforts those countries. This situation led Japan to to strengthen its Self-Defense Forces and prepare for its bargaining position raised its defense budget. Furthermore, the internationally. US and Japan will follow further military Southeast Asia countries are looking cooperation. forward to cooperation with Japan, especially in the economic field. The ASEAN countries have economic interests Implications for Southeast Asia in Japan’s assistance to spur investment and development in their respective countries as Several important figures had warned part of comprehensive relations between against Abe’s policty. Rene L. Japan and ASEAN (Green, 2001:168). With Pattiradjawane, as quoted in Kompas, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), February 5, 2014. p.10, said that Abe’s consisting of Southeast and East Asian efforts to increase the defense budget and countries with the possibility of Northeast his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine would have Asian countries to join in the future, Japan counterproductive impact on Japan. China has an opportunity to discuss the security was not a force to worry because of its dialogue with the partner countries in the untested and largely outdated military Southeast Asia region. equipments. Surely this worry would As this region does not have a regional disappear gradually because of the support great power, ASEAN is easier for Japan to from the ultra-right Japanese conservatives conduct international relations with to Abe’s leadership. The view of this group compared with other regions. In addition, is not only aimed at Japanese nationalism in another region discussions about economic and security interests are also Journal of ASEAN Studies 47 high. This makes Japan prefers partnership of Japan, which essentially Japan’s with ASEAN. The establishment warm renaissance is done more or less to counter ASEAN—Japan relation has given positive Chinese hegemony. ASEAN will progress in impacts on the efforts to suppress Chinese the middle of storms, waves, and cliffs. hegemony in the region. Thus it requires toughness in building its Furthermore, the presence of ARF bargaining position. ASEAN can also Confidence Building Measures will boost prepare for the possibility of future conflicts regional stability. The downside is that the in the East China Sea and South China Sea. ARF and ASEAN are not a pact / military alliance and that co-operation in the face of all the worst possibilities in this region has Conclusion not been tested. ASEAN does not have co- operation in security issues. Clausewitz stated that “war is the Co-operation among ASEAN countries, continuation of policy by other means”. China, Japan, and South Korea also gives Japan's domestic political developments has rise to competition between Japan’s and resulted in a changing conservative China’s investments in Southeast Asia. orientations and estimates of other state Japan’s investment value in this region is actors, especially those in the East China relatively stable while South Korea’s has Sea and in general in the South China Sea decreased although not significantly. region and Asia-Pacific. Southeast Asia is an attractive region for Long historical background of Japanese investment of those two major powers. fascism in Asia-Pacific region will lead to Japan is in need for the market in an effort the effort of balance of power. States will to invigorate the domestic Japanese naturally pursue power by combining, economy. separating, or non-aligning with the However, in the 2011 ASEAN Summit existing great powers. It will be possible to in Bali, China announced plan to increase form alliances or group or another pact. Abe its investment to reach $500 billion by 2015. still has strong desire to restore Japan by China had also established supporting amending its Self-Defence Forces roles. devices for its plan by making the ASEAN- Japan’s policy in security issues will China Free Trade Zone (FTZ) and ASEAN- remain a major focus for countries in the China Trade Centre in Beijing. China is also Asia-Pacific, especially Southeast Asia. With providing $10 billion for transportation the diversity of political views of each state- infrastructures in ASEAN countries. On the actor in Southeast Asia, there will be other hand, the value of Japan's trade reconfiguration into groups of liberal- transactions with ASEAN countries is still democratic, socialist-communist, and non- rather large, reaching $160 billion annually, aligned states. Whether this situation will and will also influence the region's relations lead back to a Cold War-like situation or with Japan. Those two major powers have ‘Little Cold War’ in Asia-Pacific region is increased “influence-race” instead of arms still a wait and see. We still have to wait for race in Southeast Asia. better further developments. ASEAN is so attractive but needs to maintain neutrality over the influence of the two great powers. The diversity of ASEAN members’ political dissent and national interests requires its members the seriousness of the role play amidst the rise 48 Japan’s Renaissance and Its Effect to ASEAN
About Author Mas’oed, M. (1984). Ilmu Hubungan Internasional: Disiplin dan Safril Hidayat, M.Sc. is currently a doctoral Metodologi. Jakarta: LP3ES. postgraduate student at the Padjadjaran Michael Howard and Peter Paret University. He graduated from Indonesian (Eds). (1976 ). Carl von Clausewitz Military Academy and received his master’s "On War" Translation. Princeton: degree in Defence and Strategic Studies from Princeton University Press. University of Madras and Defence and Services Staff College, Wellington. He can be contacted at Pattiradjawane, Rene L. 2013. Pax [email protected]. Tiongkokisasi: Kalkulasi Strategi Keamanan Asia. Harian Kompas tanggal 2 Desember 2013. Hal. 10. References Pillar, P. R. (1983). Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Blainey, G. (1973). The Causes of War. Process. Princeton: Princeton New York: Free Press. University Press. Cooney, K. J. (2002). Japan's Foreign Reiter, D. (2003). Exploring the Policy Maturation. A Quest for Bargaining Model of War. Vol.1 Normalcy. New York: Routledge . No.1. Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist Schelling, T. C. (1960). The Strategy of Explanation for War. International Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard Organization 49:3, 379., 414. University Press. Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist Smith, Alastair, and Stam, Allan C. Explanations for War. (2002). Bargaining and the Nature International Organization, 49:3, of War. New York: New York 379–414. University Press. Fearon, J. D. (1998). Bargaining, Yanyan, M. Yani. Article “Politik Luar Enforcement, and International Negeri” through: Cooperation. International