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Regional Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Selected Communities on Kodiak Island, Alaska

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Regional Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Selected Communities on Kodiak Island, Alaska Report of Investigation 2019-6 REGIONAL TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR SELECTED COMMUNITIES ON KODIAK ISLAND, ALASKA E.N. Suleimani, J.B. Salisbury, D.J. Nicolsky, and R.D. Koehler Kodiak Harbor. Photo: Barrett Salisbury. Published by STATE OF ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION OF GEOLOGICAL & GEOPHYSICAL SURVEYS REGIONAL TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR SELECTED COMMUNITIES ON KODIAK ISLAND, ALASKA E.N. Suleimani, J.B. Salisbury, D.J. Nicolsky, and R.D. Koehler Report of Investigation 2019-6 State of Alaska Department of Natural Resources Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys STATE OF ALASKA Michael J. Dunleavy, Governor DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES Corri A. Feige, Commissioner DIVISION OF GEOLOGICAL & GEOPHYSICAL SURVEYS Steve Masterman, State Geologist and Director Publications produced by the Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) are available for free download from the DGGS website (dggs.alaska.gov). Publications on hard-copy or digital media can be examined or purchased in the Fairbanks office: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys 3354 College Rd., Fairbanks, Alaska 99709-3707 Phone: (907) 451-5010 Fax (907) 451-5050 [email protected] | dggs.alaska.gov DGGS publications are also available at: Alaska State Library, Historical Collections & Talking Book Center 395 Whittier Street Juneau, Alaska 99811 Alaska Resource Library and Information Services (ARLIS) 3150 C Street, Suite 100 Anchorage, Alaska 99503 Suggested citation: Suleimani, E.N., Salisbury, J.B., Nicolsky, D.J., and Koehler, R.D., 2019, Regional tsunami hazard assessment for selected communities on Kodiak Island, Alaska: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2019-6, 31 p., 7 sheets. doi.org/10.14509/30195 Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Project Background: Regional and Historical Context ..................................................................................... 3 Community Profiles..................................................................................................................................... 3 Seismic and Tsunami History ..................................................................................................................... 5 Methodology and Data ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Computational Grids and Data Sources .................................................................................................. 6 Tsunami Sources ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Scenario 1. Mw 9.0 earthquake: SAFRR-type event applied to the west, center, and east segments (fig. 1) ...................................................................................................... 9 Scenario 2. Mw 9.0 earthquake: Maximum slip at 15–25 km (9–15 mi) depth applied to the west, center, and east segments (fig. 1) ..................................................... 9 Scenario 3. Mw 9.0 earthquake: Maximum slip at 25–35 km (15–21 mi) depth applied to the west, center, and east rupture segments (fig. 1) ....................................... 9 Numerical Model of Tsunami Propagation and Runup ........................................................................ 11 Modeling Results ................................................................................................................................................ 13 Summary .............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................................. 22 References ........................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figures Figure 1. Map of south-central Alaska ................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 2. Map of Kodiak Island ........................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3. Nesting of the bathymetry/topography grids for numerical modeling of tsunami propagation and runup ................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 5. Maximum tsunami heights for scenarios 1–3 in the Kodiak level 3 grid ...................................... 13 Figure 6. Maximum composite tsunami height at Akhiok, Chiniak, Karluk, Larsen Bay, Old Harbor, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions .................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 7. Time series of water level for scenarios 1–3 at Akhiok, Chiniak, Karluk, Larsen Bay, Old Harbor, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions .......................................................................................................... 23 Tables Table 1. Tsunami effects at selected Kodiak communities ............................................................................... 6 Table 2. Nested grids used to compute propagation of tsunami waves generated in the Pacific Ocean to the communities on Kodiak Island ................................................................................................ 7 Table 3. Significant credible tectonic tsunami sources for Kodiak communities ........................................ 12 Table 4. Summary of tsunami modeling results for the Kodiak Island communities ................................. 12 Map Sheets Sheet 1. Tsunami hazard map of Akhiok, Alaska Sheet 2. Tsunami hazard map of Chiniak, Alaska Sheet 3. Tsunami hazard map of Karluk, Alaska Sheet 4. Tsunami hazard map of Larsen Bay, Alaska Sheet 5. Tsunami hazard map of Old Harbor, Alaska Sheet 6. Tsunami hazard map of Ouzinkie, Alaska Sheet 7. Tsunami hazard map of Port Lions, Alaska REGIONAL TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR SELECTED COMMUNITIES ON KODIAK ISLAND, ALASKA E.N. Suleimani1, J.B. Salisbury2, D.J. Nicolsky1, and R.D. Koehler3 Abstract We assess potential tsunami hazard for the following seven coastal communities on Kodiak Island, Alaska: Akhiok, Chiniak, Karluk, Larsen Bay, Old Harbor, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions. The primary tsunami hazard for these communities is considered to be near-field, with a major threat originating from tsunamigenic earthquakes along the Alaska–Aleutian megathrust. We numerically model tsunamis generated by nine different megathrust earthquakes, analyze tsunami wave dynamics, and develop tsunami hazard maps for the seven communities. The hypothetical tsunami scenarios examined simulate Mw 9.0 megathrust earthquakes with a slip distribution in the 5–54 km (3–34 mi) depth range along the Alaska–Aleutian megathrust. The maximum runup heights are 14 m (46 ft) in Akhiok, 31 m (102 ft) in Chiniak, 11 m (36 ft) in Karluk, 18 m (59 ft) in Larsen Bay, 27 m (89 ft) in Old Harbor, 26 m (85 ft) in Ouzinkie, and 34 m (112 ft) in Port Lions. Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in initial tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education for mitigation of future tsunami hazards. INTRODUCTION a large coastal earthquake, dangerous near-shore ocean currents and permanent changes to the local Tsunami hazards along Alaska’s Pacific coastline coastline are additional concerns. are high. Virtually all of Alaska’s southern and south- eastern coasts are defined by major offshore fault The local, tectonic tsunami danger to commu- systems. Unlike tsunamis that are caused by distant nities in south-central Alaska comes primarily from earthquakes on the other side of the Pacific, Alaska’s the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone (fig. 1). This greatest tsunami hazards originate just offshore and subduction zone marks the boundary between the can inundate coastlines within an hour of a caus- Pacific plate to the south and the North American ative earthquake. This reduces the time available to plate to the north. Relative to the North American respond and evacuate, and can produce drastically plate, the Pacific Plate is moving northwest at approx- higher wave heights than far-traveled tsunamis. imately 5–8 cm (2–3 inches) per year, colliding with Because many Alaska communities hug the shore- the North American plate and diving beneath it in line (due to some combination of steep mountains, a process known as subduction. The latest sequence dense forests, and/or reliance on the open water of large megathrust earthquakes began in 1938 for transportation) many Alaska communities are with a Mw 8.3 earthquake west of Kodiak Island within the tsunami inundation zone and are at risk (Estabrook and others, 1994). Four subsequent of rapid flooding. In addition to earthquake-gen-
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