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Trends and Opportunities: Israel Hotel Market Overview 2017

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Trends and Opportunities: Israel Hotel Market Overview 2017 JULY 2017 TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: ISRAEL HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW 2017 Lionel Schauder Consulting & Valuation Analyst Russell Kett Chairman Lionel Schauder Consulting & Valuation Analyst Russell Kett Chairman HVS.com HVS London | 7-10 Chandos Street, Cavendish Square, London W1G 9DQ, UK Highlights In June 2016, Avigdor Liberman, an ultra-nationalist politician known for his hostile opinions towards a two-state solution, was appointed as Minister of Defence. In December 2016, an approved UN resolution aimed at ceasing settlement activities made the headlines as the US refrained from using its veto right; although, following the election of Donald Trump, peace negotiations in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict are likely to make a fresh start after several years of somewhat tense relationships under the Obama administration, notwithstanding Trump’s more forthright approach to politics. Israel continued to record strong GDP growth with a 4% increase in 2016, driven mainly by private consumption. Forecasts remain encouraging with projected growth for the next five years ranging between 2.8% and 4.5%. According to a report published by the World Economic Forum, Israel ranked number two, just behind Switzerland, as the most innovative country in the world, owing to its extremely large number of start-ups and booming high-tech sector. FIGURE 1: KEY ECOMONIC INDICATORS, ISRAEL Actual Forecast 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP growth (%) 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.5 4.0 3.6 4.1 2.8 3.1 Consumer price inflation (av %) 1.7 1.5 0.5 (0.6) (0.5) 1.0 2.5 1.6 1.9 Budget balance (% of GDP) (3.9) (3.2) (2.8) (2.9) (2.2) (2.5) (2.3) (2.4) (2.0) Current-account balance (% of GDP) 0.3 2.5 3.0 4.7 3.9 4.2 4.8 4.7 4.5 Short-term interest rate (av %) 5.6 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.8 Exchange rate NIS:US$ 3.86 3.61 3.58 3.90 3.85 3.60 3.58 3.55 3.46 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, July 2017 There are various large-scale projects under construction throughout the country, including the high-speed train linking Tel Aviv to Jerusalem via Ben Gurion Airport, which will allow travellers to commute between the two main cities in under 30 minutes upon completion in the beginning of 2018, and the construction of a new airport in Eilat, which is due to open in the next few months with capacity to handle up to 2 million passengers a year. Since Israel signed the Open Skies agreement with the European Union in 2012, the price of flights to and from European countries has decreased sharply and flight numbers have increased significantly, resulting in growth in passengers at Ben Gurion Airport of just under 30% between 2013 and 2016. Airlines from all around the world continue to announce new routes to Ben Gurion and Eilat airports. Hotel performance continues to vary from one region to another, although the overall performance of Israeli hotels in 2016 remained in line with 2015 levels. Average rates for the whole country are still above US$200, making Israel rather expensive compared to other Mediterranean destinations such Malta, Greece or Cyprus, and the prevailing geo-political situation around the Middle East continues to put pressure on visitation and occupancy levels. BREAKING The Dayan family has acquired full ownership of Africa-Israel Hotels, which owns the master NEWS! franchise rights for the Crowne Plaza and Holiday Inn brands in Israel, for US$116 million. TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: ISRAEL HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW 2017 | PAGE 2 Tourism Market Overview Montreal and Tel Aviv. In addition, Ramon International Airport is expected to open in the Visitation coming months and will replace the existing Ovda Airport in Eilat. Airport fees will be Following a decrease in visitation in 2015, a waived for the first three years of operations in result of the so-called ‘Wave of Terror’ that order to attract foreign airlines. started in September 2015, the total number of tourist arrivals in 2016 increased by 3.5% to International Market Share reach 2.9 million, broadly in line with historical FIGURE 3: INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS – MARKET SHARE levels. On the other hand, day trips decreased AND YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH, ISRAEL 2016 for the fourth consecutive year. After a slight rebound in 2015, cruise passengers decreased by 20% as several cruise operators cancelled their routes to this part of the Mediterranean, owing to the political situation in the wider area. 2016 was another strong year for Ben Gurion International Airport, Israel’s main international and busiest airport, with a 10% increase in passengers, entirely driven by international travellers, due to the opening of several new routes including Amsterdam (easyJet), Beijing (Hainan Airlines), Bratislava (Ryanair), San Francisco (United Airlines) and While the USA remains the largest feeder Warsaw (Wizzair). market with 670,000 visitors in 2016, roughly The outlook for air travel is very positive with 22% of total international visitation, Russian Ryanair opening 15 new routes, seven to Tel visitation continues to drop with a decrease of Aviv and eight to Eilat; Cathay Pacific launching 30% in 2016 to 284,000 visitors. Although a direct flight from Hong Kong to Tel Aviv; and visitation from France decreased, a trend Air Canada beginning services between observed for several other countries, French visitation overtook Russian to FIGURE 2: TOURIST ARRIVALS BY MODE OF TRANSPORT, ISRAEL 2008-16 become the second-largest 3,500,000 feeder market (10%). Despite By Land By Air 3,000,000 the devaluation of the pound against the Israeli shekel, 2,500,000 visitation from the United 2,000,000 Kingdom, Israel’s fourth-largest 1,500,000 feeder market (6%), remained stable in 2016. After a 1,000,000 remarkable 20% growth in 2015, 500,000 the German market dropped by 0 9% in 2016, mainly driven by 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 security concerns. Owing to an impressive 66% increase in Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 2016, as a result of a marketing TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: ISRAEL HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW 2017 | PAGE 3 campaign and a new air route, China is now one clear preference for Jerusalem and Tel Aviv as of the top-ten source countries (eighth both cities accommodate more than 55% of the position). Between 2009 and 2016, Chinese total international bednights. visitation increased at a compound annual rate of 36% and now stands at 85,900 visitors. Hotel Classification & Supply The European Hotelstars classification was Hotel Occupancy introduced in 2012 and is optional, with around Mirroring the positive trend in visitation, the 100 hotels so far having signed up. In the total number of accommodated bednights meantime, the Ministry of Tourism uses its increased by 2% in 2016, primarily driven by existing classification, which is divided into four the international market. Overall, all areas ‘levels’. The classification is based on the type of under review recorded an increase with the property and the average room size of a double exception of the Dead Sea. However, as bedroom. Level I corresponds to the highest illustrated in the following figure, growth standard and is equivalent to a five-star hotel. patterns between domestic and international markets differ. FIGURE 5: HOTEL CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM, ISRAEL Type of Hotel Average Size of a Double Room in m² FIGURE 4: BEDNIGHTS TREND, ISRAEL 2016 Recreational Over 28 23.5-28 20.5-23.4 Up to 20.4 Urban Over 26 21.5-26 16.7-21.4 Up to 16.6 Level Level I Level II Level III Level IV Source: Central Bureau of Statistics The average hotel size in terms of room count has decreased slightly from approximately 140 in 2012 to 134 in 2016. Significant differences exist throughout the country, depending on the level and the location. Hotels in resort destinations like Eilat and the Dead Sea are much larger with an average room count of 220 and 270, respectively, while properties in cities like Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are smaller with an average room count of 124 and 107, respectively. In terms of classification, Level I properties appear to be the largest with 264 rooms, compared to Level IV hotels, which average 50 rooms per property. FIGURE 6: PERCENTAGE SHARE OF HOTELS AND ROOMS With more than 6.8 million bednights recorded BY LEVEL IN ISRAEL, 2016 in 2016, Eilat accounts for approximately 30% Rooms Hotels of total bednights in Israel. Jerusalem and Tel Aviv come second and third, with 3.5 million Level I 26% 13% (16% of total) and 3 million (14% of total), Level II 33% 25% respectively. Resort destinations like Eilat and Level III 24% 34% the Dead Sea are more heavily reliant on the domestic market, which represents 90% and Level IV 7% 18% 80% of total bednights in these locations, Other 10% 10% respectively. The international market shows a Source: Central Bureau of Statistics TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: ISRAEL HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW 2017 | PAGE 4 Level III hotels make up approximately a third of properties represent only 7% of the total room all hotels in the country. Level II and IV properties inventory, suggesting that there is potential for represent the second- and third-largest inventories growth in the budget segment, which could at 25% and 18% of total hotels, respectively. ultimately allow Israel to attract different types of However, in terms of number of rooms, Level II travellers who can already benefit from low air hotels are prominent accounting for a third of all fares, thanks to the arrival of low-cost carriers.
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