Justin Trudeau Canada at 150 Martin Sorrell Time for long-termism George Clooney Stopping confl icts Yuri Milner Wondrous science Tsai Ing-wen Tigerish Taiwan Susan Wojcicki What we’ll be watching Planet Trump US$13.95 C$13.95 DISPLAY UNTIL 3/31/2017 Wealth management, investment banking and asset management services in the U.S. are provided by UBS Financial Services Inc., UBS Securities LLC and UBS Asset Management (Americas) Inc., U.S.-registered investment advisers and/or broker-dealers (the broker-dealers are members of SIPC) and other subsidiaries of UBS AG. Certain wealth and investment management services in the U.S. are also offered by U.S. branches of UBS AG. Securities or other instruments offered or sold by UBS AG or its affiliates/subsidiaries are not FDIC insured, are subject to risk, may lose value and are not guaranteed by UBS AG. Assets held in custody at UBS AG are not protected by SIPC. © UBS 2016. All rights reserved. What will I be doing in 30 years? Will I ever slow down? Do I have the right plans in place? Life in later years is changing. You may want to remain hands on. Take a step back. Or pursue other passions. As time goes by, you might need to reconsider your financial plan. Through careful investment strategies, we can work together to navigate whatever the future holds. Here’s to a long, healthy, and fulfilling life. For some of life’s questions, you’re not alone. Together we can find an answer. ubs.com/in-30-years Contents 7 China 57 Xi’s power struggle The fight for the party’s ranks 58 The 20-year itch A tense election in Hong Kong 59 A very political economy Growth under strain 60 The new long march China’s students head abroad 60 Macau’s low-rollers Gambling on the middle class 62 Doing development the Asian way Jin Liqun on investing in infrastructure Middle East 11 From the editor 63 When IS becomes WAS The end of Islamic State? 64 All too combustible A tour of the region’s flashpoints Leaders 65 Meet Chiran Iran, the new China 13 Planet Trump A new world order 14 In a nutshell How Donald Trump will reshape America Africa and the world Gold 66 Lifting the curse A surprisingly helpful slump Cocoa Refined tin 17 Bolshiness is back Liberalism under attack 67 Politics as unusual Kenya goes to the polls Refined copper 18 Lower for longer The global economy weakens 68 Get out of their way Yvonne Chaka Chaka on Crude oil 21 China’s chairman of everything Xi’s ambitions helping girls succeed 22 Blond bombast The rise of Europe’s populists 24 At the gates Why immigration will rise International 26 Unsustainability Business must get greener 69 A lower nuclear threshold Time to worry about the 28 Apply within The hottest new jobs of 2017 bomb again 70 Uncovered Our misses of 2016 Calendar for 2017 71 Anti-globalists on the march Free trade under fire 32 Our month-by-month selection of events 72 Data with destiny Milestones of 2017 around the world 73 Pick and Mx A fluid approach to gender 73 Changing lanes Lessons from a Swedish switch 74 A year in the life Intriguing anniversaries of 2017 75 Stop the cash, stop the conflict George Clooney and United States John Prendergast on fighting corruption 35 Trumpquake A demagogue’s victory 36 To the victors, a mess Congressional remorse Europe 38 Trumponomics Its power and perils 77 The fight for France Another toxic campaign 42 Cities v states The battle’s not just about bathrooms 78 Sea of trouble The migrant crisis will get messier 42 A whole lot of Loving The rise of interracial marriage 79 Lenin’s revenge A quandary for Vladimir Putin 80 The permanent chancellor The enduring Mrs Merkel The Americas 80 The church-splitter Martin Luther’s spirit lives on 45 Canada on a high A 150th birthday party 81 Brakes off Turkey’s democratic decline hurtles on 46 Halifax’s explosive history Lessons from a big blast 82 Post-pain in Spain A government at last 48 Red retreat South America veers to the right 82 Renzi’s gamble Italy’s destiny hangs in the balance 49 A newly connected continent Barriers come down 83 Another 1917 Maria Alyokhina on what revolution 50 Canada’s openness Justin Trudeau on globalisation means today MYANMAR Asia LAOS Britain VIETNAM THAILAND CAMBODIA PHILIPPINES 51 The ASEAN way The club reaches middle age 85 The wait before the fall Feeling the pain of Brexit BRUNEI MALAYSIA SINGAPORE 52 The grey man hangs on Malaysia’s unloved leader INDONESIA 86 A Brexit barometer Eight variables to watch 53 Open up Hiroshi Mikitani on reinventing Japan 2000 2010 2017 87 Unopposed The dangers of an irrelevant opposition 54 Strength in numbers India has momentum 87 The age of the train Britain’s newest railway 55 Ins and outs in Oz Australia’s national identity 88 Home truths Economic woes 55 Ban’s the man South Korea’s election 89 The end of Brent An oilfield bows out 56 Turning Taiwan into a tiger again Tsai Ing-wen 90 Maybe it’s because I’m a Londoner Sadiq Khan on on reform the importance of cities V 25 St James’s Street London SW1A 1HG Telephone: 020 7830 7000 On the web: theworldin.com E-mail: [email protected] Editorial close: November 10th 2016 8 Contents THE WORLD IN 2017 V Generation prophet Finance A special section of forecasts from rising stars 125 Markets at the mercy of politics One eye on central 91 Sam Altman Building the future banks, the other on governments 92 Siyanda Mohutsiwa Panafricanists are coming 126 Chain reaction The true test of blockchain 92 Isaac Hernández Dance to the rescue 127 Too much light? Transparency v privacy 93 Daisy Ridley Lights, camera, time for action 130 Brexit and the City The biggest demerger in history 93 Hani Al-Moulia A whole new way of seeing 131 Dividends or disaster Capital flows and migration 94 Amani Al-Khatahtbeh Battle of the brands 132 Tear up the textbook A topsy-turvy economy 94 Leticia Gasca AI’s Galileo moment 133 Back to the future Ray Dalio’s principles for 2017 95 Amanda Coletta The plunder games 95 Shivon Zilis Learning to love the bots Science and technology 96 Tor Garnett Policing perceptions 134 Medicine gets personal Prepare for tailor-made 97 Joshua Wong Challenging China treatment 97 Louise O’Neill Feminism with nuance 135 Gene-ius The age of gene therapy 98 Tomasa del Real The sound of the future 136 Print me a home 3D printing scales up 98 Boyan Slat Cleaning up the oceans 136 The internet of wings Tracking birds 137 When computers feel your pain Robo-psychiatrists Western 138 So long, Susy? Supersymmetry's moment of truth The world in numbers Europe North America 1.1 139 Planets, planets everywhere The search for 2.3 Middle East/ 99 Forecasts for 81 countries north Africa 2.8 habitable worlds 109 Forecasts for 14 industries Latin America Sub-Saharan 140 Science for everyone Yuri Milner on the power A global round-up from Africa 1.7 3.0 of curiosity The Economist Intelligence Unit Culture Business rs e 141 Bodies of work Europe's once-in-a-decade ov e k 115 Waving goodbye The end of big deals a t summer of art e il t s 116 Cane and able The old's grip on business o H 142 Story time Virtually real storytelling 117 Hired help Meet your new personal assistant 143 Advance booking A reading list for 2017 118 I know that voice Talking to your fridge 143 Anything but Somalibland A book fair flourishes 119 Melting point The decline of steel 144 Saint’s relics Two YSL museums open 120 Women take charge A shift in the boardroom 144 Déjà vu television Familiar new shows 121 Unpacking India IKEA opens its doors 145 A new world of watching Susan Wojcicki on viewing 121 Lifting the veil The sale of Saudi Aramco habits and the new video economy 122 Easy riders Driverless cars hit the road 123 Practice makes perfect China’s hit-and-miss Obituary management ideas 146 Barack Obama’s pauses The defining feature / 124 The long view Martin Sorrell on risk aversion of a presidency EDITOR: Daniel Franklin MANAGING EDITOR: Yvonne Ryan DEPUTY EDITORS: Laurence Blair, Leo Abruzzese EDITORIAL ASSISTANT: Amanda Coletta COUNTRIES EDITOR: Alasdair Ross INDUSTRIES EDITOR: Martin Adams DESIGN AND ART DIRECTION: Mike Kenny, Bailey and Kenny ART DIRECTOR: Anita Wright CHARTS: Michael Robinson ILLUSTRATIONS: Steve Carroll, Lauren Crow, Matt Herring, Sam Kerr, Joe McLaren, Kevin (“KAL”) Kallaugher, Dave Simonds PICTURE EDITOR: Juliet Brightmore RESEARCH: Carol Howard, James Yan EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE: Ingrid Esling, Patsy Dryden ADVERTISING SALES: Victor Bonavita, Michelle Haase, Alexandre Litwin, Raphael Rennuit, Oliver Slater, Richard Sullivan, Kay Westmoreland, Agne Zurauskaite CIRCULATION & MARKETING: Marina Haydn, Tom McCave, Laura Simpson WORLDWIDE LICENSING & SYNDICATION: Sarah Van Kirk, Jennifer Batchelor PRODUCTION: Connie Baker, Andrew Rollings POST PRODUCTION: Noel Allen OPERATIONS DIRECTOR: Sarah Bell PUBLISHER: Nicolas Sennegon ©akg-images. ©Alamy: Hendrick Schmidt/dpa picture alliance, Caspar Benson/fStop Images GmbH, David Gato, H.S. Photos, Doug Simpson, John Slemp, Aristidis Vafeiadakis via ZUMA Press. ©AP Photo/Press Association: Alex Brandon, Gerald Herbert, Matt Rourke. ©Bridgeman Images/Tobie Mathew Collection. ©Getty Images: AFP/Ahmad Al-Rubaye, Raul Ariano/NurPhoto via Getty Images, AFP/Fabrice Coffrini, Sanjit Das/Bloomberg via Getty Images, Mahmut Faysal/ Anadolu Agency, Sean Gallup, Eamonn M.