Kremlin Kontrol
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Cover The cover focuses on the three faces most responsible for the institution of control measures over civilian and military affairs in Russia: President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu, and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The title of Kremlin Kontrol is used to stress two things, that it is from leadership directives that everything of significance in regard to Russian national interests is decided or acted upon; and that the system of control over civilian and military issues is designed to help neutralize feelings of insecurity or vulnerability among Kremlin elites. Cover image attribution: Vladimir Putin: Kremlin.ru [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0) or CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons General Gerasimov: By Министерство Обороны Российской Федерации [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons Sergey Shoygu: By Vitaly V. Kuzmin (http://vitalykuzmin.net/?q=node/512) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0) or CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) is a component of the US Army's Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G2 that does guidance-driven, unclassified research and analysis of the foreign perspective of the operational environment. The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the US government. TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................... v INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 1 PART ONE .............................................................................................. 5 CHAPTER ONE: THE NATIONAL GUARD: PUTIN’S PALACE GUARD OF CONTROL ........................................................................ 7 Introduction .......................................................................................... 7 Russia’s National Guard or Rosgvardiya ............................................. 8 Reasons for the NG’s Creation ............................................................. 9 NG Weapons ...................................................................................... 13 Personnel Selections for the NG ......................................................... 18 The NG’s Organization and Duties .................................................... 20 Conclusions ........................................................................................ 28 CHAPTER TWO: CADRE CHANGES AND SISTEMA ................ 31 Introduction ........................................................................................ 31 Putin’s Cadre Changes ....................................................................... 31 Sistema: The Unique Russian Operating Environment ...................... 43 Conclusions ........................................................................................ 47 CHAPTER THREE: MEDIA CONTROL VIA MANIPULATION AND THE METHODOLOGY OF THE HALF-TRUTH ................ 49 Introduction ........................................................................................ 49 Manipulating Objective Reality ......................................................... 50 The Methodology of the Half-Truth ................................................... 55 Russian Social Media and Those Cyber Attacks ................................ 58 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 61 CHAPTER FOUR: RUSSIAN CONTROLS OVER NATIONAL AND INFORMATION SECURITY: STRATEGIES, DOCTRINE, CONCEPTS .......................................................................................... 63 Introduction ........................................................................................ 63 The NSS: What Should be Followed Closely? ................................... 65 The ISD: What Should be Followed Closely? .................................... 74 The STDS and CRFP: What Should Be Followed Closely ................ 79 An Assessment ................................................................................... 83 Conclusions ........................................................................................ 84 PART TWO .......................................................................................... 89 v CHAPTER FIVE: RUSSIA’S METHODOLOGICAL CONTROL OVER FUTURE WAR PLANNING: THE THEORY ..................... 91 Introduction ......................................................................................... 91 Contemporary Russian Thought ......................................................... 93 Trends and Forecasting ....................................................................... 96 Military Strategy ................................................................................. 98 Forms and Methods........................................................................... 100 Operational Concept/Design and the COFM .................................... 102 CHAPTER SIX: RUSSIAN OFFICERS DISCUSS METHODOLOGICAL CONTROL ................................................. 109 Introduction ....................................................................................... 109 Learning from Experience ................................................................ 109 Examining the Thoughts of Important Authors ................................ 110 Trends/Foreign Trends ...................................................................... 111 Forecasting/Foreign Forecasting ....................................................... 116 Military Strategy/Correlation of Forces ............................................ 122 Forms (Organizations) and Methods (Weapons and Military Art) ... 127 Operational Design ........................................................................... 132 Major Concepts ................................................................................. 133 Results of the Military Thought Process ........................................... 141 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 144 CHAPTER SEVEN: CONTROL FEATURES OF ‘THE GERASIMOV LECTURES’.............................................................. 147 Introduction ....................................................................................... 147 2013 Presentation .............................................................................. 148 2014 Presentation .............................................................................. 154 2015 Presentation .............................................................................. 163 2016 Presentation .............................................................................. 167 2017 Presentation .............................................................................. 170 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 172 CHAPTER EIGHT: REFLEXIVE CONTROL ............................. 175 Introduction ....................................................................................... 175 Definitions......................................................................................... 176 A Closer Look at the 1990s: Leonenko and Chausov....................... 181 21st Century Tactics, Analogies, and Ukraine: A Theoretical Discussion ......................................................................................... 186 Russian RC in Modern Operations ................................................... 196 Conclusions ....................................................................................... 197 vi CHAPTER NINE: THE NATIONAL DEFENSE MANAGEMENT CENTER AND KAVKAZ-2016 ........................................................ 199 Introduction ...................................................................................... 199 National Defense Management Center ............................................. 199 Kavkaz-2016 ..................................................................................... 204 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 207 CHAPTER TEN: RUSSIAN ACTIONS IN SYRIA ....................... 209 Introduction ...................................................................................... 209 Russian Equipment Used in Syria: Russian and Western Sources ... 212 Forms and Methods of Terrorists: Two Russian Reports ................. 217 First the Pullout, then the Declaration to Stay Indefinitely .............. 222 September 2016 to January 2017: A Few Notes .............................. 224 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 227 CHAPTER ELEVEN: CONCLUSIONS ......................................... 231 Introduction ...................................................................................... 231 Control Accomplishments ................................................................ 232 Putin and Shoygu Summarize 2016: Where is Russia Heading? ..... 239 What Does it all Mean? .................................................................... 242 APPENDIX ONE: RUSSIA’S GENERAL STAFF/COMMANDERS ON THE WAR IN SYRIA ................................................................. 245