DOCSLIB.ORG

Hurricane Olivia

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Hurricane Olivia eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Olivia Information from NHC Advisory 28, 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 07, 2018 Olivia is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Olivia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is expected during the next few days. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 115 mph Position Relative to 1465 miles E of Hilo Speed: (category 3) Land: 1640 miles E of Honolulu Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 964 mb Coordinates: 20.1 N, 132.5 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained n/a 140 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 16 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Olivia approaching the Hawaiian Islands over the next five days at it weakens to tropical storm intensity (winds below 74 mph). To illustrate the uncertainty in Olivia’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). Forecast Track for Hurricane Olivia Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Olivia © Copyright 2018 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Hurricane Olivia. Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities for the Next Five Days The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands' chances of seeing tropical storm force wind speeds (39-73 mph) ranging from 0% to 30%. The map at lower right shows a 0% chance of the Hawaiian Islands seeing hurricane force wind speeds (74+ mph). Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds and New Tropical Cyclone Potential Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook for the North Central Pacific The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five Norman, centered about 280 miles northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The National days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Olivia, centered about track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics 1500 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Olivia is forecast to move into the Central for those forecast variables during recent years Pacific basin later Saturday. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days. Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs.
    [Show full text]
  • Read December 6 Edition
    Vol. 46, No. 49 Thursday,December 6, 2018 News/Features: page 2 MacDillAirmantop in AMC News/Features: page 3 Hurricane Hunterswrap up Week in photos: page 4 Images from the week News/Features: page 7 Next generationmasks Readiness showcased - page 10 Photo by Airman 1st Class Ryan C. Grossklag U.S. Air Force Col. Stephen Snelson, 6th Air Mobility Wing Commander,spends time with military working dog handlers Community:page 16 at MacDill Air Force Base Nov.26. Snelson donned abite-suit and attempted to outrun amilitary working dog during a Events, Chapel, more... demonstration by the 6th Security Forces Squadron, showcasing that this SFS team and their canines areready to re- spond at amoment’snotice. NEWS/FEATURES ‘She’sincredible, must be medical’ by Airman 1st Class Scott Warner 6th Air Mobility Wing Public Affairs Senior Airman Amber Durrence,a6th Medi- cal Operations Squadron mental health techni- cian at MacDill Air Force Base,was named Air Mobility Command’s2018 Mental Health Air- man of the Year. MacDill’s6th MDOS leadership nominated Durrence because she reflected Air Force core values and demonstrated not only expertise in her career field, but leadership above her grade and overall commitment to the Mental Health clinic mission. “Airman Durrence alwayshas agreat atti- tude,” said Staff Sgt. PatrickAllen, Durrence’s Photo by Airman 1st Class Scott Warner supervisor and the 6th MDOS NCO in charge of the behavior health optimization program. “She U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Amber Durrence, right, a6th Medical Operations Squadron men- continually exceeds expectations,leads by ex- tal health technician, shows another Airman how to complete the mental health examination of ample and is consistently hungry to help.” their pre-deployment process at MacDill Air Force Base Nov.29.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report FY 2018 & FY 2019
    Forever Families Annual Report FY 2018 & FY 2019 July 1, 2017 - June 30, 2018 July 1, 2018 - June 30, 2019 1 A message from our Board Chair CFS Brings Communities Together for Families It has been an honor to serve as the Child & Family Service board chair for the past two years and I am truly pleased with how much we have accomplished together. I am confident knowing CFS is in a solid and sustainable financial condition, with outstanding board leadership and engagement, a dynamic leader at the helm, and positive positioning within the industry. TONY MIZUNO WE KNEW REPLACING HOWARD In respect to CFS finances, we continue to Board Chair GARVAL’S 20 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE remain focused on financial diligence and our WOULD BE CHALLENGING, so it was both obligation to use our assets responsibly. Our Executive Vice President exciting and comforting to discover that the numbers are strong and sustainable, which helps Bank of Hawaii most qualified candidate came from within our to ensure we have the ability to provide critical CFS ranks. In re-envisioning CFS’s place in the services even if hit with random hiccups such community, Karen Tan is transcending her role as a government shutdown, natural disasters or as agency president to becoming a champion for other unexpected events. social services in the state. With her guidance, CFS is sharing new learnings, shepherding Lastly, as I close my tenure as board chair, I want innovative projects and fostering inter-agency to thank my fellow board members. It has been collaboration in a kind and respectful way.
    [Show full text]
  • Extension of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Eastern and Central North Pacific
    NPS ARCHIVE 1997.12 BOOTHE, M. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS EXTENSION OF THE SYTEMATIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC by Mark A. Boothe December, 1997 Thesis Co-Advisors: Russell L.Elsberry Lester E. Carr III Thesis B71245 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAl OSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 93943-5101 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching casting data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, I'aperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1 . AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1997. Master's Thesis TITLE AND SUBTITLE EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEMATIC 5. FUNDING NUMBERS APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC 6. AUTHOR(S) Mark A. Boothe 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDR£SS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESSEES) 10. SPONSORING/MONTTORIN G AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • HTA Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Olivia
    For Immediate Release: September 9, 2018 HTA Release (18-55) Tropical Storm Watch Issued for O‘ahu, Maui County and Island of Hawai‘i in Response to Olivia HONOLULU – Today, at 5:00 p.m. HST, the National Weather Service issued a tropical storm watch for O‘ahu, Maui County and the island of Hawai‘i in response to Hurricane Olivia, meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. Presently a category 1 hurricane, Olivia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm as it moves closer to the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. Olivia has been steadily weakening since the storm briefly peaked as a Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific on September 7. As of 5:00 p.m. HST, the center of Olivia was approximately 595 miles east-northeast of Hilo on the island of Hawai‘i and 760 miles east of Honolulu. Olivia has maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour and is moving west at 12 miles per hour. The onset of Olivia’s weather impacts are currently forecast to begin affecting Hawai‘i late Tuesday, September 11. Weather impacts from Olivia are projected to initially affect northeast and east shores throughout the Hawaiian Islands. This could include very strong winds, high surf conditions and storm surge along shorelines, and heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. HTA strongly advises residents and visitors to be prepared for Olivia. This includes having access to an adequate supply of food, water, medications and essential goods. Everyone is strongly encouraged to follow the instructions of Hawai‘i’s civil defense officials and to not take any risks that would put them in danger from Olivia while the storm is completing its pass of the Hawaiian Islands.
    [Show full text]
  • 2018 Sustainability Report
    The Cliffs at Princeville Sustainability Report 2018 The Cliffs at Princeville 3811 Edward Road Princeville, Kauai, Hawaii 96722 April 2019 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 2 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 3 The Cliffs at Princeville ....................................................................................... 3 Sustainability Overview ..................................................................................... 3 The 2018 Sustainability Report .......................................................................... 4 Sustainability Focus at The Cliffs Today ................................................................ 5 Climate Change and Resiliency ............................................................................. 5 Results 2018: ...................................................................................................... 5 Operations and Community Engagement ............................................................. 6 Results 2018 ....................................................................................................... 6 2019 Additional Goals: ....................................................................................... 8 Energy Use ............................................................................................................. 8 Results 2018: .....................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Glen Allen Weather History</B>
    <b>West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen Weather History</b> OCTOBER 21ST - 31ST WEATHER HISTORY http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-wilmington/charlie-wilson Charlie Wilson Wilmington Weather ExaminerSubscribeSponsor an Examiner A member of the American Meteorological Society, Charlie Wilson has combined his knowledge of Meteorology & Weather History with his Education background in Communications. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- October 21st: 1492 Columbus made landfall on San Salvador Island under clear skies. Fortunately, he met no hurricanes on the first voyage through March of 1493, although the "Santa Maria" was wrecked on a reef off of Cuba. 1638 A tornado struck a church in southwest England during a service, reportedly killing as many as 50 people. 1743 Benjamin Franklin made the revolutionary discovery that the wind in storm systems rotate in a counter clockwise direction. Franklin was waiting in Philadelphia, PA that night to view a lunar eclipse, but had his opportunity foiled by a nor'easter. Franklin later discovered that his brother in Boston, MA was able to observe the eclipse clearly and the storm did not arrive at his location until four hours later. It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture. 1780 Spanish Admiral Solano was en-route from Havana, Cuba to Pensacola, FL to capture the important port city. The 3rd major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships.
    [Show full text]
  • BUSINESS East Loses Puzzles West Iowthey Differj ’New'bonds Flood the Marketplace ...Page 14 ...Page 4
    2 0 - MANCHESTER HERALD, Sat., Sept. 25, 1982 MHS wins; irezhnev speech Men, women: BUSINESS East loses puzzles West iowthey differj ’New'bonds flood the marketplace ...page 14 ...page 4 ... page 11 Drawbacks of the "goose eggs” : you are placing your some of the price risk out of tax-free bonds. In the So many new types of bonds are being created to en­ faith in the ability of the issuer to repay, perhaps 30 “floater,” it’s the interest rate that fluctuates— weekly tice your savings dollar these days that the old- years from now. Also, if you have to cash in earlier, you — but the principal is locked in. Many of these bonds are fashioned bond — with its fixed rate of coupon interest Your take a chance on the price you will get in the "secon­ issued by local governments to finance pollution control Partfy sunny, Manchester, Conn. and its simple, stated maturity rate — is starting to facilities and similar local improvements. How good dary” market. You could take a beating unless you hold Monday, Sept. 27, 1982 appear as out of style as a mustache cup. M oney's the bonds to due date. they are depends on the credit rating of the issuer. cool Tuesday The innovative investment products arc designed for • Zero coupon insured (certificates of deposit). This is . - m • Treasury Investment Growth Receipts. This is an - See page 2 Single copy 25<( mass appeal — to reach the audience of small investors W orth ingenious form of zero-coupon investment invented by another kind of debt instrument that doesn’t pay regular that has been putting millions into money market funds.
    [Show full text]
  • Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters in 2014 Caused Insured Losses of Just Losses in Australia
    N o 2 / 2 0 15 Natural catastrophes and 1 Executive summary 2 Catastrophes in 2014: man-made disasters in 2014: global overview convective and winter storms 7 Regional overview 14 Severe convective generate most losses storms: a growing global risk 21 Tables for reporting year 2014 43 Terms and selection criteria Executive summary There were a record 189 natural In 2014, there were 336 disaster events. Of these, 189 were natural catastrophes, catastrophe events in 2014. the highest ever recorded, and 147 were man-made disasters. More than 12 700 people lost their lives or went missing in the disasters. Globally, total losses from all disaster The total economic losses generated by natural catastrophes and man-made events were USD 110 billion in 2014, disasters in 2014 were around USD 110 billion, down from USD 138 billion in 2013 with most in Asia. and well below the inflation-adjusted average of USD 200 billion for the previous 10 years. Asia was hardest hit, with cyclones in the Pacific creating the most losses. Weather events in North America and Europe caused most of the remaining losses. Insured losses were USD 35 billion, Insured losses were USD 35 billion, down from USD 44 billion in 2013 and well driven largely by severe thunderstorms in below the inflation-adjusted previous 10-year average of USD 64 billion. As in recent the US and Europe, and harsh winter years, the decline was largely due to a benign hurricane season in the US. Of the conditions in the US and Japan. insured losses, USD 28 billion were attributed to natural catastrophes and USD 7 billion to man-made events.
    [Show full text]
  • Significant Data on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900-Present
    DISASTER HISTORY Signi ficant Data on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900 - Present Prepared for the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance Agency for International Developnent Washington, D.C. 20523 Labat-Anderson Incorporated Arlington, Virginia 22201 Under Contract AID/PDC-0000-C-00-8153 INTRODUCTION The OFDA Disaster History provides information on major disasters uhich have occurred around the world since 1900. Informtion is mare complete on events since 1964 - the year the Office of Fore8jn Disaster Assistance was created - and includes details on all disasters to nhich the Office responded with assistance. No records are kept on disasters uhich occurred within the United States and its territories.* All OFDA 'declared' disasters are included - i.e., all those in uhich the Chief of the U.S. Diplmtic Mission in an affected country determined that a disaster exfsted uhich warranted U.S. govermnt response. OFDA is charged with responsibility for coordinating all USG foreign disaster relief. Significant anon-declared' disasters are also included in the History based on the following criteria: o Earthquake and volcano disasters are included if tbe mmber of people killed is at least six, or the total nmber uilled and injured is 25 or more, or at least 1,000 people art affect&, or damage is $1 million or more. o mather disasters except draught (flood, storm, cyclone, typhoon, landslide, heat wave, cold wave, etc.) are included if the drof people killed and injured totals at least 50, or 1,000 or mre are homeless or affected, or damage Is at least S1 mi 1l ion. o Drought disasters are included if the nunber affected is substantial.
    [Show full text]
  • NASA Tracking Hurricane Olivia's Track Toward Hawaii 10 September 2018
    NASA tracking Hurricane Olivia's track toward Hawaii 10 September 2018 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 56.6 degrees Celsius). NASA research has found that cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to generate heavy rainfall. The MODIS data showed that the strongest storms only extended out 30 miles from the center. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm -force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The Central Pacific Hurricane Center of CPHC noted a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii that covers Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe and Hawaii County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Oahu. At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC/5 a.m. HST), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located near latitude 21.7 degrees north and longitude 148.0 degrees west. At 12:15 a.m. EDT (0415 UTC) on Sept. 10, the MODIS Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite looked at kph) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is Hurricane Olivia in infrared light. MODIS found coldest forecast today, with slight weakening starting cloud tops (red) had temperatures near minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 56.6 degrees Celsius) tonight and continuing through Tuesday. However, around the center. Credit: NASA/NRL Olivia is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the Hawaiian Islands. Olivia is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 Hurricane Olivia moved from the Eastern Pacific kph).
    [Show full text]
  • DLNR Summer 2018 Field Camp (8 People Deployed for 160 Days
    PAPAHĀNAUMOKUĀKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT Agency Report to the Reserve Advisory Council April 2018 – September 2018 Agency: State of Hawaii, DLNR/DOFAW Report prepared by: Matthew Saunter, Naomi Worcester Date: 11 October 2018 DLNR Summer 2018 Field Camp (8 people deployed for 160 days) Field Camp Leaders: Matthew Saunter, Naomi Worcester Personnel: Allison Beck, Brett Higgins, Kelleigh Downs, Leah Kerschner, Morgan Walter & Vladimir Omega Logistics: • The Fall 2018 Kure crew swap took place on 3 September. • The M/V Imua deployed its LCM Alewa and completed the cargo and personnel transfer in 2 runs. The Imua was underway by 1400 HST and arrived at Midway Atoll that same day just before sunset. • Word was received regarding Hurricane Olivia’s approach to the Main Hawaiian Islands while underway to Nihoa. Fortunately, the Makani Olu was able to recover the personnel that were dropped off by the Imua on the way up. • Due to the closing of Honolulu Harbor the Imua was assigned to a pier at Ford Island on 10 September. • After Olivia had passed the boat was offloaded on 14 September. Wildlife Management: Laysan Duck translocation population management 532.15 hours were spent monitoring Laysan ducks and maintaining quality habitat. • Habitat maintenance at the seeps and guzzlers continues. This includes weeding, sediment removal, providing shade, cleaning and replenishing water sources as necessary. • Several mini duck ponds were placed in strategic locations to provide water and promote foraging range of broods during dry conditions this summer. • Water source checks were conducted 3 times per week minimally. During these checks, duck sightings were recorded and used to obtain a minimum population estimate.
    [Show full text]