No. 705 August 6, 2012 Libertarian Roots of the Tea Party by David Kirby and Emily Ekins Executive Summary Many people on the left still dismiss the tea tea party and spread the word through social party as the same old religious right, but the media. evidence says they are wrong. The tea party has Understanding the tea party’s strong lib- strong libertarian roots and is a functionally lib- ertarian roots helps explain how the tea party ertarian influence on the Republican Party. movement has become a functionally libertar- Compiling data from local and national ian influence on the Republican Party. Most polls, as well as dozens of original interviews tea partiers have focused on fiscal, not social, with tea party members and leaders, we find issues—cutting spending, ending bailouts, re- that the tea party is united on economic issues, ducing debt, and reforming taxes and entitle- but split on the social issues it tends to avoid. ments—rather than discussing abortion or gay Roughly half the tea party is socially conserva- marriage. Even social conservatives and evan- tive, half libertarian—or, fiscally conservative, gelicals within the tea party act like libertarians. but socially moderate to liberal. The tea party is upending the conventional Libertarians led the way for the tea party. wisdom that Republican candidates must pla- Starting in early 2008 through early 2009, we cate socially conservative voters to win prima- find that libertarians were more than twice as ries. Increasingly, Republican candidates must “angry” with the Republican Party, more pes- win over tea party voters on libertarian econom- simistic about the economy and deficit since ic issues. 2001, and more frustrated that people like them To the extent the Republican Party becomes cannot affect government than were conserva- functionally libertarian, focusing on fiscal over tives. Libertarians, including young people who social issues, the tea party deserves much cred- supported Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential cam- it—credit that political strategists, scholars, and paign, provided much of the early energy for the journalists have yet to fully give. David Kirby is vice president at FreedomWorks and an associate policy analyst for the Cato Institute. Emily Ekins is the director of polling at Reason Foundation and a research fellow at the Cato Institute. The political Introduction in December 2011.4 Political pros admired story of 2010 was Paul’s well-organized grass roots operation [Ron] Paul is less a candidate than in Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul has cap- the rise of the tea a “cause”. The other candidates tured the imagination of many young peo- party. had to pretend they were happy with ple, winning young voters under 30 in a third their [New Hampshire] results. Paul of the primaries and caucuses in exit polls was genuinely delighted with his, thus far and placing second in another third.5 because, after a quarter-century in the Long after it had become obvious that Ron wilderness, he’s within reach of put- Paul would not be the nominee, he contin- ting his cherished cause on the map. ued to gather ever larger crowds. During the Libertarianism will have gone from first week of April, Paul drew an estimated the fringes—those hopeless, pathet- 6,000 supporters to a campaign stop at the ic third-party runs—to a position of University of California, Los Angeles,6 and prominence in a major party.1 8,500 at the University of California, Berke- ley,7 his largest crowds of the campaign. This —Charles Krauthammer, Washington occurred the same week Romney won the Post, January 12, 2012 Wisconsin primary, making his nomination all but inevitable. As Washington Post colum- The surprise of the 2012 Republican pres- nist Charles Krauthammer recognized early, idential election cycle is that despite strong Paul may lose and still catapult libertarian opposition to President Barack Obama, Re- ideas into the mainstream of the Republican publicans’ enthusiasm for their own candi- Party. dates has remained low. After the first eight The political story of 2010 was the rise of contests, turnout was down 10 percent from the tea party. A top political story of the 2012 2008.2 Mitt Romney, the long-presumed presidential cycle is this curious persistence front-runner, has inspired little enthusiasm of the libertarian supporters of Ron Paul, de- among the grass roots. Tea party supporters, spite his failure to win a single primary con- who represented more than half of all Repub- test. But these may well be two parts to the lican primary voters, never unified around a same story—a story of the emergence of a lib- single candidate. Candidates surpassed 50 ertarian constituency that has planted roots percent of the tea party vote in only three in the tea party but traces its history back primary states: Romney won 70 percent of to frustrations with the Bush administra- tea party supporters in his home state of tion since at least 2008, if not before. Indeed, Massachusetts; Newt Gingrich won 51 per- Washington Post veteran election analyst Dan cent of tea party support in his home state Balz put it this way: “Paul was . tea party of Georgia; and Romney won 60 percent of when tea party wasn’t cool.”8 tea party supporters in Virginia, where only Liberals caricature the tea party as the two candidates appeared on the ballot. Rick same old religious right. Conservatives mis- Santorum never won more than 50 percent understand it. Establishment Republicans of the tea party vote in any primary.3 And, we fear it. But given all this political anxiety, witnessed ephemeral surges for several other and despite hundreds of articles and analy- candidates, including Michele Bachmann, ses, there is very little agreement on what the Rick Perry, and Herman Cain. tea party is, and where exactly it comes from. Yet steady interest in Ron Paul has out- In this paper, we argue that the tea party stripped all other candidates by some mea- has strong libertarian roots and is a libertar- sures. The Google Politics and Elections ian influence on the Republican Party. We team reported that “Ron Paul” was the top trace the origins of the tea party back to political search term of the election, even 2008, using data analysis techniques of po- beating out “Tim Tebow” and “Christmas” litical science. In the first section, we com- 2 pile data from local and national polls, as about the economy and deficit since 2001 well as dozens of original interviews with and more frustrated that people like them tea party members and leaders. We find that cannot affect government. the tea party is united on economic issues Pollster Scott Rasmussen, in his book Mad but split on social issues. About half the as Hell, describes tea party members as above tea party is socially conservative and half is all else being defined by “near stratospheric” libertarian. The conservative half is more levels of anger—anger toward Washington’s Republican. The libertarian half is more in- overspending, bailouts, and takeovers at the dependent. While many tea partiers have a hands of both Democrats and Republicans.11 favorable opinion of Glenn Beck and Sarah New York Times reporter Kate Zernike chose Palin, libertarian tea partiers favor Ron Paul Boiling Mad as the title of her book on the more than do conservative tea partiers. tea party. If we use this anger and agitation Throughout this paper, we use the word as a proxy for the origins of the tea party, lib- “libertarian” to identify voters who are fis- ertarians hit the stratosphere first. Evidence cally conservative but socially moderate to shows that the first waves of tea parties had liberal, based on their answers to questions a decidedly libertarian flavor. Many young on polls. This is the same method used in libertarians played key a role as organizers, previous Cato studies on the libertarian spreading the word through social networks Evidence shows vote.9 We do not claim that these are hard- built during the Ron Paul campaign of 2008. that the first core libertarians who have all read Ayn Rand In the third section, we then construct waves of tea and F. A. Hayek, or are as ideologically self- a time series that follows libertarians from aware as readers of Reason magazine. Rather, February 2010 to March 2012, using polling parties had these voters’ libertarian beliefs distinguish data compiled by major media and national a decidedly them from liberals and conservatives, even if polling organizations such as ABC/Washing- libertarian the word “libertarian” may be unfamiliar to ton Post; CBS/New York Times; Gallup; Pew; them.10 and Reason-Rupe. This time series construc- flavor. In the second section, we model the role tion does not allow for as fine-tuned analy- of libertarians and the tea party in the right- ses as panel data, but nonetheless reveals the leaning coalition, over time. The American ebb and flow of support among libertarians National Election Studies (ANES), a familiar in the tea party movement. We find that in and respected data source in political sci- these national surveys, libertarians averaged ence, conducted a panel survey of the 2008 41 percent of tea party supporters in 2010, presidential election and then followed these but dropped to an average of 30 percent sup- very same voters through early 2010. A panel port in 2011—an 11 percentage point decline. survey differs from a traditional poll by call- Libertarians seemed to have soured on ing back respondents over a period of time, the movement they helped create, perhaps much like following the same patients in a as more conservatives got involved and con- medical trial.