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EDITORIAL Editors: Subhra Priyadarshini, Rebecca Dargie FROM THE EDITOR Commentators: Govindarajan Padmanaban, Maharaj Kishan Bhan, Monkombu S Swaminathan, Renu Swarup, Shirshendu Mukherjee, Soumya Swaminathan, Trevor Mundel Art and design: Chandra Pal Singh ndia is headed towards an aston- What are the grand challenges for the Project management: Dalia El Essamy ishing population surge. With 1.34 country’s 1.3 billion people? Can sci- Photographic research: Madeline Hutchinson billion people recorded in early ence help find solutions to some of the 2018, the country is estimated public health problems? Can innova- PUBLISHING toI add another 100 million by 2024 tion provide long-term answers? Nature Research Group overtaking China, currently the most Through in-depth commentaries ADVERTISING & SPONSORSHIP populous nation in the world. by subject experts, this special issue Institutional & Corporate Partnerships Therefore, her daunting demo- looks at the state of affairs in malaria Manager - India graphics are integral to any discussion management, maternal and child Sonia Sharma, M: +91 9650969959 [email protected] around the challenges faced by India. health, malnutrition and tuberculosis. The mammoth population coupled It also looks at the science-led inno- SUBSCRIPTIONS & REPRINTS with limited resources, and grow- vations and solutions already on offer. Sonia Sharma: 011 4575 5850, ing urbanization and energy needs In a reprint section, we compile some M: +91 9650969959, are important factors behind many recent articles from across Nature [email protected] NATURE JOURNAL QUERIES socio-economic issues. Research publications that highlight Manager, Sales Support, Springer Nature: Jacob Be it poverty, healthcare delivery, the grand challenges and research- Thomas | M: +91 9818171996 literacy, pollution or waste manage- based solutions that India and the rest [email protected] ment — each of India’s problems can be of the developing world have adopted. directly linked to and are intensified by The volume also features a special Registered Office: Springer (India) Private Limited, 7th Floor, Vijaya Building, 17, Barakhamba Road, its teeming millions. photo section curated from top entries New Delhi - 110 001, India. Some of the most pressing chal- to the 2017 Nature India photo com- Email: [email protected] lenges raised by a large population are petition, themed ‘Grand Challenges’. www.nature.com/natureindia in the public healthcare, energy and These pictures are compelling visual sanitation sectors. Successive Indian narratives of some deeply moving and Cover photo: © Getty Images governments have made tremendous familiar circumstances. Connect with us on efforts to meet public needs and expec- With examples and case studies of Facebook: /npgindia Twitter: @NatureInd tations. However, health concerns such evidence-based solutions, the Nature as tuberculosis, maternal and infant India special issue on Grand Challenges Official sponsor: mortality, vector- and water borne-dis- hopes to be an enlightening read for eases, malnutrition, hygiene and sani- scientists, policy-makers, business tation remain major problems. leaders, and societies across the The Nature India special issue on developing world. Grand Challenges takes a closer look at some of these hazards, which are expe- SUBHRA PRIYADARSHINI DISCLAIMER rienced across the developing world. EDITOR Nature India Special Issues are sponsored supplements that aim to stimulate interest and debate around a subject of interest to the sponsor, while satisfying the NRG editorial values and our readers’ expectations. Most of our special issues focus on affairs pertaining to science and research in India and at the same time are of significance to the global scientific community. SUBHRA PRIYADARSHINI

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facebook.com/npgindia @NatureInd India’s daunting demo­graphics are a central consideration in solving her biggest challenges.

APRIL 2018 | | 3 CONTENTS

April 2018

COMMENTARY PHOTO STORY REPRINT

05 MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH 19 JUST ONE WORLD 28 A shot at contraception In search of a good start for our Deepak Bhau Kumbhar Killugudi S Jayaraman mothers and babies In India, a nonagenarian renews Maharaj kishan Bhan & testing of a birth control vaccine. Shirshendu Mukherjee Adverse birth outcomes still too 31 Rethink India’s energy strategy common, with a legacy of growth Arunabha Ghosh & Karthik Ganesan issues that last a lifetime. Address the needs of poor 20 CLEANING UP MY ABODE and rural households, target 07 MALNUTRITION Ricky Patel subsidies and support low-carbon To end hunger, we must make industries. smarter use of land and sea Monkombu S Swaminathan 33 Action on mental health needs Better systems, information sharing global cooperation and technological progress are vital Pamela Y. Collins & Shekhar Saxena for nutrition security. 21 FISHY TALES As threats to populations transcend Dipankar Ghosh national boundaries, it is crucial that 09 DISEASE responses to mental health problems Basic research the best weapon in do too. the age-old malaria battle Govindarajan Padmanaban 36 Bollywood takes on menstrual The developing world needs a tool stigma to distinguish falciparum from Subhra Priyadarshini vivax cases 22 CHILDREN OF THE SUN A biopic of an inspired Indian Avinash Surendran sanitary-pad innovator. 11 ENGAGEMENT Maintaining momentum 38 Waste mountain Soumya Swaminathan Subhra Priyadarshini Interest in tuberculosis research is Examining the wide-ranging impacts high, but a quantum leap in funding of India’s throw-away culture. must follow. 23 POVERTY INHERITED 39 Understand young people in 13 INNOVATION Preethi Krishnamoorthy low-income countries Biotech nation: support for Robert Blum & Jo Boyden innovators heralds a new India For most of the world’s adolescents, Renu Swarup poverty and social marginalization The country is uniquely poised to influence health much more than deliver effective and affordable risk-taking does. solutions 24 HOME ALONE 15 PHILANTHROPY Samrat Mukherjee 42 REVIEW ARTICLE A strong foundation for progress Challenges and gaps for Trevor Mundel energy planning models in Supporting and enabling the developing-world context groundbreaking projects from Kumar Biswajit Debnath & inception to results on the ground. Monjur Mourshed COMMENTARY DINODIA PHOTOS/ALAMY

A baby born in India today has twice the life expectancy of one born 70 years ago, but there is much still to be done to improve health measures.

MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH In search of a good start for our mothers and babies Adverse birth outcomes still too common, with a legacy of growth issues that last a lifetime.

MAHARAJ KISHAN BHAN SHIRSHENDU MUKHERJEE

The Grand Challenges project aims to expectancy of 68 years, more than Around 20% of our babies come into command the attention of world-class twice that of a child born in 1947. the world with low birth weight as a researchers and to focus funding and More mothers survive birth today than result of prematurity, fetal growth research on solutions to the biggest they did even a decade ago. These are restriction alone or in combination. A public health and development prob- markers of slow, yet steady progress in high proportion of Indian newborns lems we face. Grand Challenges India improving the lives of our mothers and experience wasting and become has the same mandate on a domestic children. stunted by their second birthday. This scale ­— directing Indian innovation to This is where the good news ends increased risk of linear growth retar- solve our specific challenges, which The stillbirth rate and neonatal mortal- dation occurs both in low birth weight can be taken to the rest of the world. ity are still high in India and other low and those weighing 2.5kg at birth, but A child born in India today has a life and middle-income countries (LMICs). the risk is many fold higher in the

APRIL 2018 | | 5 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY

former category. We therefore have attainment, income, and health (partic- and care of pregnancy complications. the challenge and the opportunity to ularly risk of chronic diseases such as Postnatally, it provides evidence-based improve both child survival rates and coronary artery disease and diabetes). intervention for the mother and infant growth, and prevent this exceptionally This is where the value of pro- during the first two years. We will learn high rate of stunting in Indian children. grammes such as Grand Challenges how much reduction in childhood There are gaps in our knowledge of India lies. It encourages innovation stunting is feasible with evidence what causes these adverse outcomes, to address some of these challenges based intervention. as much as the unaddressed concern through two mechanisms, open calls Another ACT project, implemented of relatively lower coverage and quality for solutions and through the policy by THSTI in collaboration with of current interventions. Research is thinktank KnIT. Regional Centre for Biotechnology important for both. The ‘Achieving Healthy Growth (RCB) and National Institute for Bio- The factors associated with adverse through Agriculture and Nutrition’ medical Genomics (NIBMG) is creating birth outcomes, such as prematurity (AGN) and the ‘All Children Thriving’ and using a biobank generated from and low birth weight explains about a (ACT) threw open the challenge to a large pregnancy cohort to find new third to a half of the variation in these researchers from across the country. ways of predicting, detecting and outcomes. These include under nutri- The AGN call targeted the interrela- addressing premature birth. The study tion and specific nutrient deficiency, tionship between nutrition and agri- uses omics technologies and imaging hypertensive and thyroid disorders, cultural practices to reduce the high in search of new tools and ideas. anemia, infections and inflammation incidence of low birth weight, early Another programme working in particularly of the reproductive tract, stunting and wasting among Indian nutrition and maternal and child complications related to pregnancy infants and mothers. The ACT call was health is the Knowledge Integration involving mother and fetus. Sanitation, envisaged to investigate measure- and Translation Platform or KnIT. This hygiene, water supply increase risk of ment tools and mechanisms to tackle is a policy thinktank which collates, infection and inflammation. Psycho unhealthy birth, growth and develop- analyses and synthesize secondary social factors may have direct and indi- ment in infants and children. data and evidence on child survival rect effects on gestation and growth, The linear growth study, under and thriving to inform policy-makers but there are knowledge gaps. Many the ACT grant, is being carried out on various aspects of health policy that of these and other factors also affects by the Society for Applied Studies to are relevant and targeted to the Indian placental function which is related to understand the context. It works to synthesize and fetal growth and development. causes of stunting “There are disseminate Indian evidence derived On the implementation side, there is in India, and to markers from routine surveillance, periodic inequitable and inadequate interven- develop mecha- of slow, health and nutrition surveys, interven- tion, and only low to moderate compli- nisms to address yet steady tion trials and programme evaluation. ance by mothers and families. them. There are progress in The output is helpful in reshaping How do we engage and initiate the many possible improving policy and strategies in maternal child the lives of research community, working alone, explanations as to health and in assisting state govern- our mothers and through interdisciplinary teams to ments in programme redesign and why stunting rates and children. generate applicable knowledge, inno- haven’t improved systems improvement. This platform vative tools for measuring gestation, in India, despite significant socio-eco- is designed to ask the right questions fetal growth, pregnancy complications, nomic progress, and this study intends and rigorously evaluate evidence placental function, postnatal growth to investigate many. supporting different interventions. It and development? On the nutrition Specifically the study evaluates the will provide state policy-makers with front, there is uncertainty about which impact of a package of interventions a holistic view of the challenge in their are the most critical nutrients for targeted at known risk factors on states with tailored interventions that mother and child. And how do we mea- prematurity, fetal growth restriction may help mitigate the problems. sure and address sub-clinical infection and stunting and wasting at two years Today, KnIT is working on important and inflammation that impairs linear of age. The study will assess the role questions in the area of nutrition and growth in the fetus and the child. On of intergenerational factors, such as maternal and child health such as pos- the basis of new knowledge we can maternal height, play in modulating sible interventions for low birth weight improve existing measures and add the effectiveness of intervention pack- babies, interventions to reduce anemia new interventions. ages. The study is designed as a ran- rates, and understand the facility level Research is needed on how to domized control intervention trial in demands and supply for the care of sick improve intervention delivery to low-income areas in New Delhi and will and small newborns at the district level achieve high coverage and quality on a deliver the intervention package from in the country. KnIT is assessing equity wide scale. pre-pregnancy, through pregnancy and and impact of existing nutritional and Investments in promoting research the first two years of life. health programmes for women and and innovation on these issues is a It comprises of host of interventions children at national and state level. high priority, given the link between addressing nutrition, medical disor- The agri-nutrition linkage pro- adverse birth outcome, stunting at two ders, infection and inflammation, psy- gramme supports innovative ideas in years of age and eventual education cho social support and timely detection agriculture and food sector that could

6 | | APRIL 2018 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES improve the nutrition of the very same communities. there are insightful and creative young communities that produce food. Grand Challenges for healthy growth researchers. Many interesting projects are testing and birth is identifying a new genera- innovation to reduce postharvest tion of young investigators and pro- Maharaj Kishan Bhan is National Science Professor, losses, preserve nutrition quality of viding an opportunity to support and Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the Former seasonal vegetables and fruits, and nurture them. Secretary, Department of Biotechnology. reengineer distribution to ensure The programme, it is hoped will gen- Shirshendu Mukherjee is mission director, Grand Chal- access to sustenance for the poorest erate as many solutions and tools as lenges India, BIRAC, New Delhi.

MALNUTRITION To end hunger, we must make smarter use of land and sea Better systems, information sharing and technological progress are vital for nutrition security.

MONKOMBU S SWAMINATHAN introduce farmers to crops which are achieve food security and improved rich in badly needed micronutrients. nutrition, and promote sustainable A recent issue of National Geographic A national grid of genetic gardens of agriculture”. To achieve this, we must (February 2018) raises the question biofortified crops will make a major pay attention both to sustainable of who will feed China. We have to ask contribution to overcoming hidden agriculture and to farming systems for a similar question about India. The hunger. nutrition. answer lies in the integration of ecolog- The three forms of hunger can be Sustainable agriculture involves ical principles, technological advance- addressed through appropriate farm- increased productivity without ecolog- ment and information sharing. ing systems. The Farming Systems ical harm. To make the transition from Nutrition security comes under the for Nutrition (FSN) initiative involves a green to ever-green revolution, we following categories. agricultural solutions for nutritional need to attend to the following. problems. Agriculture, nutrition and 1. Soil health, paying attention to the INADEQUATE DIETARY CALORIES health are currently being dealt with physics, chemistry and microbiol- Wheat, rice, millet, and other food separately, and FSN helps to integrate ogy of soil. crops are available. The development the three. 2. Better management of ground and implementation of an effective Our aim should be to achieve the water, surface water, rain water, distribution system is essential. second of the United Nation’s Sustain- coastal water resources, and water able Development goals: ‘End hunger, recovered through waste recycling. PROTEIN HUNGER Protein hunger can be overcome through the greater production and consumption of pulses. Indian farm- ers have shown that they can produce much larger quantities of pulses provided there is a certain and remu- nerative market. Poultry, milk, and fish also provide necessary protein. We NOAH SEELAM/AFP/GETTY IMAGES SEELAM/AFP/GETTY NOAH are fortunate to be the world’s largest producer of milk. We have a large pro- gramme of inland and coastal fisheries, along with aquaculture infrastructure.

MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY A dietary shortage of micronutrients such as vitamin A, vitamin B12, iron, and iodine could be eased through growing biofortified crops like sweet potato and moringa. Genetic gardens should be established in order to Homeless people gather at a feeding programme in Hyderabad.

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utilisation, creating value-added prod- ucts from the rice straw, husk, brawn and grain. Similar bioparks can be organised for pulses. This will help the farmers to derive income and employ- ment from every part of biomass. BIJU BORO/AFP/GETTY IMAGES BIJU BORO/AFP/GETTY ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE It is important to set up many more climate risk management R&D centres. Such centres should be supported by trained Climate Risk Managers, a man and woman from each panchayat. Climate change could lead to catastro- phe, and there is need for immediate steps in the areas of mitigation and adaptation. Training manuals are available with MSSRF which can be used as a tool for an education programme. A farmer dries harvested rice from a paddy field at Burha Mayong village in Morigaon, Assam ESTABLISHMENT OF FARM SCHOOLS PRICE VOLATILITY several other minor millets. Kolli Hills Farmer-to-farmer learning through Instead of adhoc steps to appease con- has a rich germplasm of such grains. It farm schools should be established sumers, we should find a permanent would be useful to establish a in the fields of outstanding farmers, solution. One method is the promotion millet biovalley for the conservation to spread agrciultural knowledge and of peri-urban horticulture, making use of varieties, along with small pro- skill. of considerable areas of available land, duction industry for a wide range of Another urgent requirement is within cities and on their fringes. A processed millets, like breakfast greater investment in research on movement to encourage cultivation on cereals. these ‘orphan crops’, so that the yield rooftops and vacant land with essen- potential is substantially enhanced. tial food crops, such as tomato, onion, EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN IN Both higher yield and assured market- and chilli. This will confer a double AGRICULTURE ing will increase the attractiveness of advantage; price stability and nutrition I made proposals to the Rajya Sabha these crops to small farmers. security. legislation regarding the technological There is presently a mismatch empowerment of women in agricul- between production and post-harvest SEAWATER FARMING FOR COASTAL ture. Several features of this legislation technologies which leads to losses for AREA PROSPERITY could be incorporated in a Tamil Nadu both producers and consumers. In India’s 8,000 km coastline offers a Act for the empowerment of women this part of the cycle, food processing great opportunity for seawater farm- in farming. Tamil Nadu will become a industries are urgently needed. The ing, as practiced in the Kuttanad region leader in promoting gender equity in 2018-19 budget provides substantial of Kerala. Both crops and fisheries can agriculture. support to food safety and food pro- be included in a seawater agroforestry cessing. Value-added products will system. India should become a world ANIMAL HUSBANDRY AND have to be prepared in order to pro- leader in demonstrating how seawater FISHERIES mote greater investment in post-har- can be used to cultivate crops. The M S Kisan credit cards should be given not vest technology. Cold storage and cold Swaminathan Research Foundation is only to those cultivating crops, but also chains are needed. The recent potato a hub for the technologies for seawater promoting the cultivation of poul- crisis in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and below-sea level farming, and will try and marine and inland fisheries. and Bihar could have been avoided had undertake training and capacity build- Animal husbandry such as rearing of there been cold storage available in the ing in this area. A genetic garden of goat, sheep and poultry products can Punjab’s Haryana region. halophytes, including mangroves, has give substantial addition income to been established for this purpose. farmers. These can also augment the income of fisher families during sea- 1. Swaminathan, MS (2010). From Green to Evergreen Revolution, Indian Agriculture : NATIONAL YEAR OF MILLETS sons when catching fish is prohibited Performance and Challenges. Academic Foundation, New Delhi. Pp. 410 The Indian government has declared in order to promote regeneration. 2. Swaminathan, M S (2017). 50 years of Green 2018 as the National Year of Millets. Revolution : An Anthology of Research Papers. World Scientific, Singapore, 465 pp. Tamil Nadu are leaders in the cultiva- RICE BIOPARK tion of millet crops like samai, thinai, This will show farmers how to increase The author is the founder and chairman, M S Swamina- kezhvaragu, panivaragu, kambu and their income through biomass than Research Foundation

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Fumigation using a fogging device to control the menace of mosquitoes at Ulsoor Lake in Bangalore, India.

DISEASE BASIC RESEARCH THE BEST WEAPON IN THE AGE-OLD MALARIA BATTLE The developing world needs a tool to distinguish falciparum from vivax cases

GOVINDARAJAN PADMANABAN

More than 100 countries have eliminated malaria response for diagnosis and treatment, regional in the past century, and 35 countries have joined cooperation and data sharing, advocacy for political1 the malaria-eliminating category. These countries and financial support have all been addressed2. have reduced their malaria burden by an impressive Malaria is a major problem in India. The coun- 90% from 1.6 million cases to 0.16 million, and cut try did have a major success through the National death rates by 87%. The WHO has described various Malaria Eradication Programme (NMEP) which strategies for decreasing the global burden in terms brought down malaria incidence of 75 million of death and incidence by 90% by 20301. A strong cases and death of 0.8 million cases in 1953 to 0.1 surveillance system to identify and classify all foci million cases and no death, respectively, in 1965. of transmission, aggressive and timely intervention However due to technical, operational and financial

to block transmission, methods of characterizing complexities, incidence had shot up to 6.4 million NV/EPA/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK JAGADEESH high-risk migrant and mobile populations, early cases in 1976. Various programmes of intervention capture of drug and insecticide resistance, real-time have brought this to a figure of 1.1 million cases

APRIL 2018 | | 9 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY

cases5,6. This is a unique combination, where curcumin has been shown to act through activating host immune mech- Policy recommendations anism, despite low bioavailability and India needs to aggressively pursue research is essential. Strategies to rapid metabolism. Curcumin can delay strategies described in the National prevent entry and spread of arte- the onset of resistance to artemisinin. framework for malaria elimina- misinin resistance, quick diagnosis It would help significantly if this com- tion in India (2016-2030) (NFEMI) and treatment of falciparum and bination is taken through clinical trials document to change its status from vivax cases, emphasis on research at the earliest. a malaria-controlling country to with vivax malaria, strategies to A bigger global challenge is to find malaria-eliminating country, to block transmission and vector a new antimalarial that is as effective eventually become free of malaria control measures, and tackling as artemisinin. There are candidate by 2030. Emphasis on operational insecticide resistance are among the molecules undergoing trials, but research and translational basic priorities. may not be ready in the next three years. The Grand Challenge has to give priority to study of vivax malaria. and 562 deaths in 2014, although the countries. As the NFMEI document3 More virulent cases are being reported death figures have been debated. Even states: “The parasite can survive in even in P. vivax infection, although if death rates are not considered as cooler climates, is less responsive chloroquine-based therapy seems to a major factor, the morbidity, loss of to conventional methods of vector work. Thus, a diagnostic to distinguish man hours and economic burden are control, is more difficult to detect using between falciparum and vivax cases considered very high, since the coun- conventional diagnostic tools, treat- in the shortest time is needed. Most try is a target for both falciparum and ment of liver stage parasites requires often, vivax detection is by ruling out vivax malaria. India also runs the risk a 14-day course of primaquine which falciparum infection. Mixed infection of being a malaria-exporting country can produce some serious side-ef- can pose major challenges. Imaging since neighbouring Sri Lanka has been fects”. techniques for microscopy need to be malaria-free since 2012, and other The use of spurious drugs and upgraded. nearby countries have malaria-elimi- artemisinin-based monotherapy have Can we find an alternate to pri- nating status. been described as contributing to drug maquine, that involves a 14-day Malaria interventions are considered resistance in the malaria origin centres treatment in vivax cases with side-ef- highly cost-effective, representing in Southeast Asia4. Surveillance in this fects? The main difficulty in studying large returns on investment in public context in India is also essential. P vivax is the inability to culture this health. Therefore, in line with the WHO There are many aspects that need parasite. Partial success for short-term Global technical strategy 2016-2030, to be addressed through basic lab culture has been reported, but the the Ministry of Health and Human research as well. In my opinion, the patient remains as the main source for Welfare, the government has delin- biggest threat is the parasite. The emergence of simian eated a strategy for malaria elimination entry and spread “Bugs are parasites, P. knowlesi and P. cynamolgi in India. The approaches described are of artemisinin smarter than as potential human parasites in the very similar to the strategies described resistance in the scientists, region needs to be studied carefully, by the WHO, as applied to Indian states country, even as a and this although the reports may be consid- falling in three categories representing combination ther- human- ered as outlying cases at present. The low, moderate and high transmission apy. Resistance to pathogen vacuum created by the elimination of rates. this most effective is as old as P. falciparum and P. vivax may provide Operational research must be an drug in the greater evolution. an opportunity for the simian parasites integral part of the Grand Challenges Mekong Subre- to spread. Bugs are smarter than scien- programme. There are many chal- gion, which includes Cambodia, Laos, tists and this human-pathogen conflict lenges, well described in the NFMEI Myanmar, Vietnam and China’s Yun- is as old as human evolution! document3. To quote a couple of nan province4 is a real threat to the Most laboratories are carrying out examples, an aggressive intervention already-affected NE states and further studies with P. falciparum cultures to in high transmission areas of Odhisha, spread. Slower clearance of parasites understand the pathology. These stud- Chattisgarh, Jarkhand, MadhyPradesh, to Artesunate-SP (Sulfadoxine-Pyri- ies need to be taken through a transla- Maharashtra and the northeast states, methamine), approved combination tional mode. P. berghei infected mouse which contribute to 70% of all the to treat falciparum cases in India, is model is the most popular to carry out malaria cases in the country, is a prior- already being reported. A policy is in studies in vivo. It is important to create ity. Intensification of control activities place to introduce artesunate-lume- facilities to use humanized mouse in forest, hilly, tribal and conflict-af- fantrine combination. Our own studies models to study P. falciparum infection fected areas will be the challenge. in animal models have established and even P. vivax infections as such. Another example is to eliminate vivax the efficacy of artemisinin-curcumin Very few laboratories in India study malaria. India accounts for 80% of combination, both in uncomplicated parasite development in the mosquito. global vivax cases contributed by three and Experimental Cerebral Malaria Intervention in the sexual stages of

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I do not believe that an effective even if the several technical challenges malaria vaccine will be available in the are successfully addressed. I would like next decade, although the RTS,S vac- to see India as a malaria-eliminating cine may still be introduced in Africa country rather than as a malaria-con- with less than 40% efficacy. The sporo- trolling country. Malaria eradication is zoite vaccine seems to have tantalizing feasible, but not the mosquitoes. success, but I do not know how it can be made available on a global scale 1. World Health Organization. Global technical strategy for malaria 2016–2030. Geneva: WHO, 2015. even for falciparum cases. Perhaps, it 2. Newby, G.,et al. The path to eradication: a progress will have limited application in specific report on the malaria-eliminating countries. Lancet 387, 1775-1784 (2016). geographical regions. 3. Directorate of National Vector Borne Diseases Official blood testing at a dengue and malaria clinic The best option seems to be quick Control Programme (NVBDCP) and Directorate IMAGES CHAKRABORTY/NURPHOTO/GETTY DEBAJYOTI in Kolkata. General of Health Services (DGHS). National and correct diagnosis, immediate framework for malaria elimination in India (2016- parasite development is important in appropriate drug therapy, vector 2030) (NFEMI). Ministry of Health and Family the transmission stage and crucial for Welfare. Government of India. 2016. control measures, strategies for inter- 4. Roberts, L. Malaria Wars. Science 352, 398-405 malaria elimination. vention in the transmission stage and (2016). Creation of more insectories to study ‘Swachh Bharat’ initiatives. 5. Vathsala, P. G. et al. Curcumin-arteether combination therapy of Plasmodium berghei- malaria parasite development in the I have already described the priority infected mice prevents recrudescence through mosquito would be useful. While, P. for basic research. More investments immunomodulation. PLoS One 7, e29442 (2012). 6. Dende, C et al . Simultaneously targeting berghei development in the mosquito in these areas rather than in more inflammatory response and parasite sequestration can give important leads, P. falciparum ‘fashionable’ studies based on gene in brain to treat Experimental Cerebral Malaria. Sci. development studies in the mosquito drives to eliminate mosquitoes are wel- Rep. 3, e 12671 (2015) would need appropriate containment come. Gene Drive will have huge envi- The author is at the Department of Biochemistry, Indian conditions. ronment and regulatory issues in India, Institute of Science, Bangalore, India

ENGAGEMENT Maintaining momentum Interest in tuberculosis research is high, but a quantum leap in funding must follow.

SOUMYA SWAMINATHAN

It is heartening to note the heightened political interest and engage- ment on TB in the past year. What started at the Berlin G20 meeting was followed by the Moscow Declaration to End TB: a promise to increase multisectoral action as well as track progress, and build accountability. The first UN General Assembly High-Level Meeting on TB in September 2018 will seek further commitment from heads of state, which some, like the Prime Minister of India, have already made. At the recent End TB Summit in Delhi, PM Modi announced an ambitious plan to eliminate TB, with a slew of new interventions, TIMES/GETTY IMAGES MOHD ZAKIR/HINDUSTAN including a social support scheme for all TB patients. Modi also pointed out that the fight against TB must start in com- munities, villages and towns — a true people’s movement. The World Health Organization’s End TB Strategy adopted by all member states in May 2014 aims to reduce TB deaths globally by 95%, and to cut new cases by 90% between 2015 and 2035, and to ensure that no family is burdened with catastrophic expenses due to the disease. Tuberculosis still kills more people than any other infectious disease and the growing burden of multidrug resistant (MDR) TB is a challenge. Seven countries account for 64% of the total burden. India leads the count, followed by Indonesia, China, Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, and South Africa. In fact, India accounts for a Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the END-TB Summit and quarter of the world’s TB cases and a third of its deaths. For the launches the TB Free India campaign in Delhi, March 2018

APRIL 2018 | | 11 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY year 2015, the updated estimate of disease and correlates of protective More data are likely to become avail- incidence (new and relapse TB cases immunity. This has slowed down the able on the combination of Bedaquiline per year) is 2.8 million cases, of which development of a newer, more effective and Delamanid in treating extensively the RNTCP diagnosed and notified 1.7 vaccine for TB, as well as tests that can drug-resistant TB. In the case of TB, million incident TB patients, leaving easily identify individuals most at risk it is novel drug combinations (rather approximately 1.1 million presumptive of disease progression who could be than individual drugs) that need to be patients whose fate was unknown. The targeted for treatment of latent infec- tested for safety, efficacy, affordability 2015 estimate of the number of TB tion. Ultimately, for elimination, latent and convenience. This will require the deaths is 478 000 — making it one of TB treatment would have to be scaled involvement of research institutes, the leading causes of death in India. Of up, in addition to identification and pharmaceutical companies, regulatory the estimated 79,000 cases of multi- treatment of active cases. agencies and funders, including mid- drug resistant (MDR) TB, about 31,000 Major challenges in India include dle-income countries. The paradigm of were diagnosed and the majority put the disparity of treatment providers, drug development needs to be differ- on treatment, leaving a large number many of whom do not follow standard ent for diseases like TB, which predom- of patients undetected with the possi- diagnostic or treatment algorithms, the inantly affect the poor and do not have bility of further transmission. lack of awareness about TB symptoms, a market in the West. While the disease is caused by a and the fact that free diagnosis and Research to identify specific bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, treatment are available at government immune cell core regulatory pathway socio-economic determinants are health centres, causing stigma which disruptions caused by pathogens must important and the incidence rate of TB prevents people from seeking care. be increased to efficiently develop new among people in the lowest socioeco- The National Strategic Plan 2017- host directed therapies for treatment nomic quintile is at least three times 2025 addresses many of these chal- and prevention. Already, some host higher than those in the highest quin- lenges and provides cash incentives directed therapies like the antidia- tile. A recent systematic review found for TB patients who are regular with betic drug, Metformin, and leukot- that the total cost of TB for patients and therapy as well as for physicians riene antagonists are being tested as affected families on average repre- who report TB. A adjunct therapies. There needs to be sented more than half their yearly “The total national prevalence a quantum increase in investment in income. Major drivers of TB in Asia cost of TB survey is planned research in TB —­ right from basic sci- for patients include poverty, overcrowding and in 2018 to provide a ence to better understand biology and and families under-nutrition, while HIV is the main represents baseline prevalence transmission dynamics, to transla- risk factor in sub-Saharan Africa. Other half their rate — ideally, com- tional research on biomarkers, clinical risk factors include diabetes, smoking annual plete notification of trials of new drug combinations, and and exposure to indoor air pollution, income.” TB by private and operational research to address blocks and alcohol consumption. public providers in programme delivery. The India TB In Europe, TB rates began to decline will negate the need for such surveys Research Consortium was launched in in the 1920’s, well before any effective and enable the programme to monitor 2017 by the Indian Council of Medi- vaccine or drug was available, mainly progress. cal Research, in partnership with the due to living standards improvements. After relying on sputum smear Department of Biotechnology and Tuberculosis infects people mostly microscopy for diagnosis for more than other science ministries, international via the respiratory route and estab- a hundred years, a cartridge based agencies, and WHO, to undertake lishes a nidus of infection, where the nucleic acid amplification test has translational research to develop organism can survive in a dormant or become the standard of care, enabling and validate new tools (diagnostics, latent form for many years or decades. rapid diagnosis and detection of drug combinations and vaccines) An imbalance in the immune control Rifampicin resistance simultaneously. needed to fulfill the TB elimination system allows the infection to prog- There are more affordable diagnostics goals. ress to active disease and the infection on the horizon, mainly from India and A national mission to end TB has progresses faster and is more severe/ China, and it is now possible to imagine been launched in India. A concerted widespread in young infants and that every patient with suspected TB effort by all stakeholders —­ govern- children, those with HIV infection and could have a molecular diagnostic test, ment, private sector, and the patient other immunosuppressive conditions. with susceptibility testing for at least community ­— is required, with regular There have been great advances in Rifampcin, even at a remote primary surveillance. The ministry of health genomics, proteomics and immunol- health centre, with no electricity or has developed a seven-year national ogy in recent years, but major gaps highly qualified staff. strategic plan. Additional investments remain in understanding of pathogene- After a gap of 40 years, there are in research through the India TB sis of some forms of TB. There is much now two new drugs to treat TB, though Research Consortium will hopefully to learn about the interaction between currently these are reserved for deliver new and better tools to prevent, mycobacterial lineage and host genet- multidrug resistant cases. There is a detect and treat TB. ics, determinants of virulence and small pipeline of novel molecules that transmission, biomarkers that can pre- must undergo further clinical develop- The author is deputy director-general of programmes, World Health Organization. dict progression from latent to active ment.

12 | | APRIL 2018 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES

A pavilion at the ‘Make in India’ week in Mumbai

INNOVATION BIOTECH NATION: SUPPORT FOR INNOVATORS HERALDS A NEW INDIA The country is uniquely poised to deliver effective and affordable solutions

Innovation is key to solving many RENU SWARUP Innovation is believed to be the fun- problems faced by communities, soci- damental source of significant wealth eties, nations or humanity as a whole. Nurturing innovation generation within an economy. An innovation ecosystem requires special attention to maximize benefits for those is thriving and healthy when the resources invested in the with the greatest need. knowledge economy (either through private, government, or An innovation ecosystem models the economic dynamics direct business investment) are replenished by innovation of the complex relationships between entities, which in this induced profit increases in the commercial economy. The case are the material resources and humans whose goal is to interdependence of innovation and entrepreneurship is enable technology development and innovation. therefore a clear one. IMAGES INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP/GETTY

APRIL 2018 | | 13 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY

India is undergoing a revolution in bio-clusters and connecting with which are in the market, and more the area of innovation, whether it is industry, startups and entrepreneurs than 150 new IP’s have been filed. The in the areas of science, technology or through BIRAC. It is because of this focus is also on skill development, others. The emphasis of Make in India, that India is today a preferred partner training, employment and market Stand Up India, and Startup India for all international collaborations access. launched by the government is on in biotechnology, which we cur- An important part of encouraging creating a conducive environment for rently have with more than 80 entrepreneurship is assuming the home-grown innovation and entrepre- countries. business risk that a young business neurship to solve some of the biggest Biotechnology’s role is crucial for developing an innovative scientific challenges that India faces. the Indian knowledge economy to idea faces specially in its nascent A penchant for frugality, combined grow. Establishing and growing an stages. As products move along the with public and private support for innovation product driven biotech value chain, only the level of their risk entrepreneurship and innovation, industry was a significant need in changes. Therefore, funding bodies mean that India is uniquely poised to India which led to such as BIRAC need to create sup- deliver effectve and affordable solu- creation of BIRAC port through the market value-chain tions in areas of medicine, healthcare, “India by the Govern- to ensure that ideas don’t fail for the agriculture, energy, industry and enjoys a ment of India. want of support. Government funding others. penchant for Biotechnology has also plugged several holes where In science and technology, this frugality, and Industry Research venture capitalists and angel inves- thrust for innovation and entrepre- support for Assistance Council tors were typically unwilling to invest neurship has been possible because of innovation. (BIRAC) is a not- before, such as early-stage research, the systematic and unflagging support for-profit public during which private investors were of the government. Since indepen- sector enterprise, more wary. India is moving towards dence, until the 1980s, India had built set up by the Department of Bio- high-risk funding, encouraging for a substantial scientific infrastructure technology (DBT) as an interface many scientists to take up research on through public funding and some pri- agency to strengthen and empower disruptive technologies. vate funding. By the early 1980s, India emerging biotech to undertake Our recent focus on retaining and had a fledgling biotechnology sector strategic research and innovation, attracting scientists with high-level with a few biotechnology focused com- addressing nationally relevant prod- experience and our recent investments panies that manufactured vaccines, uct development needs. BIRAC is a in high-tech infrastructure gives us enzymes and other biotechnology new industry-academia interface and the confidence to support disruptive products intended primarily for the implements its mandate through a technologies. domestic market. wide range of initiatives, be it pro- Biotechnology is an intrinsic com- It was during this time that the true viding access to risk capital through ponent of the 21st century knowledge growth potential of the biotechnology targeted funding, technology transfer, economy. The Indian government has sector was realized by science pol- IP management and handholding set an ambitious target of US$ 100 icy-makers and the government, to schemes that help bring innovation billion for the biotechnology indus- deliver valuable and affordable solu- excellence to the biotech firms and try by 2025. DBT along with BIRAC tions to some of India’s challenges. make them globally competitive. In is committed to work alongside all This spurred public investments its four years of existence, BIRAC has partners in the endeavor to create an first in academia for basic research initiated several schemes, networks innovation driven biotech ecosystem which has now expanded to include and platforms that help to bridge and amplify the growth of Indian bio- translational research and devel- gaps in the industry-academia inno- technology. opment and the entire innovation vation research and facilitate novel, The vibrant ecosystem we see ecosystem. high-quality affordable product today gives us the confidence that our Systematic government support for development. BIRAC has also initiated innovators will be recognized globally the biotechnology sector began in the partnerships with several national for providing solutions for addressing 1980s with the National Biotechnol- and global partners. major societal problems. ogy Board (NBTB) and followed by the In recent years BIRAC has had very The recent government impetus on Department of Biotechnology (DBT) in positive impact on the whole ecosys- Make in India and Startup India have 1986. tem for startups and entrepreneurs, given a major boost to this sector, and Biotechnology today well poised, and the industry academia interface the biotechnology industry will con- because of the excellent base created has greatly benefitted. We have more tribute immensely to the enhanced by DBT in the last 30 years. There than 1,000 startups and 500 industries GDP and employment opportunities. are more than 500 laboratories to 16 engaged in the network. The ecosys- The industry is poised to leverage its autonomous institutes each strate- tem has been empowered by creating strength and capacity to bring in trans- gically positioned to contribute to a over 30 bio-incubator centers with formational change and the making of special high-risk area of research. 300,000 sq.ft of incubation space. a new India by 2022. They are part of a focus on creating More than 1000 products or technol- the translation ecosystem through ogies have been developed, many of Renu Swarup is BIRAC’s managing director.

14 | | APRIL 2018 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES

The challenge of improving sanitation demands a pipeline of technological solutions from India’s best minds, along with sustained funding.

PHILANTHROPY A strong foundation for progress Supporting and enabling groundbreaking projects from inception to results on the ground.

TREVOR MUNDEL example, the government of India set At the Bill & Melinda Gates Foun- a deadline of 2019 for Indians to stop dation, we agree that innovation and The words science and technology dumping untreated waste into the India’s future are inextricably linked. can conjure images of things far from environment. The government has We believe the world is getting better, our everyday experience: ISRO’s Mars called for “measurable results” on mal- and can get better still, in large part orbiter or theoretical physics, for nutrition by 2022, and it has pledged because scientific and technological

instance. But science and technology to eliminate tuberculosis as a serious innovation can help solve difficult RAA/GETTY IMAGES JONATHAN are both intuitive and immediate, and national health challenge by 2025. problems, especially those faced by the they are key to addressing the most That is a lot to do in a short time, which poorest. We have been working closely pressing challenges India faces. is why India is committed to an innova- with the government of India for more As part of Swachh Bharat, for tion agenda. than a decade as it implements its

APRIL 2018 | | 15 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY innovation agenda, and one of our Assistance Council (BIRAC) was given immunization requires improving the most effective collaborations to date is responsibility for the programme, and supply chain. The old-fashioned paper Grand Challenges India. in 2013 Grand Challenges India issued records were sometimes inaccurate, The Grand Challenges programme its first calls for proposals, with funding and even when they weren’t, informa- dates back to the very beginning of the provided jointly by the government of tion traveled slowly, which meant it Gates Foundation. Bill and Melinda India and the Gates Foundation. could take weeks to address stockouts. Gates had spent their careers in the Many Grand Challenges projects that One Grand Challenge project sup- software industry, where the best generated impressive early results ported a start-up company in Bengal- minds came together to unleash an are now being scaled up. Together, uru called Logistimo, which created a almost-constant stream of innovation they offer hope that Prime Minister cloud-based mobile supply chain plat- that revolutionized the way people Narendra Modi’s ambitious targets form so that anyone with a smartphone lived and worked. They did not see the for improving the quality of life for the can instantly check stock anywhere in same focus on innovation in global poorest in India are within reach. the system. Logistimo is now deployed health and development, and they Consider sanitation. Though open in five countries and has over 12,000 were convinced that a little attention defecation is a problem in rural areas, stores in its network with a stock avail- after years of neglect could unlock most people in urban areas use pit ability of more than 95 percent. big improvements. As a result, they latrines or septic Fighting tuberculosis is another worked with partners to create a pro- “The hope tanks. While the priority our foundation shares with gramme that turned the usual grant- was to waste is contained the government of India, and almost making paradigm on its head. Instead encourage initially, most of it is 15 years of Grand Challenges-funded of selecting grantees and prescribing more ideas eventually dumped, research has produced a better scien- their activities, Grand Challenges from more untreated, into tific understanding of latency, which would explain the end goal — for exam- places, and the environment. is helping drug developers accelerate ple, to discover treatments that don’t push the best Consequently, one their research. We have also supported lead to drug resistance — and then ones forward of the first two calls programs to promote adherence to the invite innovators from everywhere to first.” issued by Grand current treatment regimen, includ- propose ideas for how to achieve it. Challenges India ing 99DOTS, an ingeniously simple The hope was to encourage more ideas was for proposals to “reinvent the and inexpensive monitoring system. from more places and push the best toilet”—that is, to create technologies Each time a patient takes a pill from a ones forward fast. appropriate to the situation on the specially designed packet, it reveals a India had always been a part of our ground in Indian communities that can number for the patient to call, toll-free. vision for Grand Challenges, both prevent the pathogens in human waste That phone call feeds into a system that because many of the problems the pro- from circulating. One of the Reinvent dispenses reminders, incentives, and gramme was designed to solve exist on the Toilet grantees, BITS Pilani, is counseling for patients who are having the subcontinent and because so many developing what it calls the empow- trouble sticking to the regimen. world-class innovators come from ered septic tank. Run on photovoltaic The impact of each of these inno- India as wel. As a result, we decided to power, the system uses electricity to vations is significant. But what’s just host the 2011 Grand Challenges annual change the pH levels in effluent, killing as significant is that the government meeting in New Delhi. In the run up pathogens and helminth eggs. The of India is supporting a platform that to that meeting, we forged a strong team is now pilot testing its technology is producing innovations on an ongo- relationship with the Department of in a community setting, in preparation ing basis to overcome a vast array of Biotechnology, which was interested for scale-up. obstacles standing in India’s way. We in creating a Grand Challenges India To achieve the results promised are proud to work alongside the nation to engage more Indian innovators to on malnutrition, India will need to as it addresses the priorities of today to work on India-specific challenges. continue to improve routine immu- create the India of tomorrow. In 2012, we signed a memorandum nization, since enteric infections of understanding, the newly formed can prevent children from absorbing Trevor Mundel is the president of the Bill and Melinda Biotechnology Industry Research nutrients from food. Improving routine Gates Foundation

16 | | APRIL 2018 INSTITUTIONAL PARTNERSHIPS

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Discover how Nature Research can support your communication needs at partnerships.nature.com/institutional-partnerships Photo contest 2017 Grand Challenges

Deepak Bhau Kumbhar Nature India held its first photo con- flooded landscape in the aftermath of test in 2014. We received about 50 the typhoon, as well as the man carry- entries, but the quality and passion ing his belongings on his back through of our entrants was enough for us to the waist-deep floodwaters. We must make the contest an annual affair. see the woman walking two kilometres Four years later, Nature India has to obtain drinking water for her family, Ricky Patel a rich archive of stunning science as well as the young child, wan with pictures from across the world. fever from a treatable disease like We’ve even put together a travelling pneumonia or diarrhoea. exhibition curated from some of the But we must also see images of winning pictures. The large number ingenuity and resilience: a scientist of scientists participating in these testing an improved form of waste- contests also got us thinking about water treatment, a green skyscraper the importance of visual elements in that not only cools the air, but grows communicating science. food as well, a nurse vaccinating rural In 2016, this sparked our ‘Visual- children. ising Science’ workshop where more Addressing the world’s grand chal- than 80 selected Indian scientists lenges will require scientists — and all received hands-on training in pho- of us — to reach beyond our comfort Avinash Dipankar Surendran Ghosh tography, illustrations, infographics, zone, collaborate across disciplines film-making and virtual reality. The and across sectors, focus on solu- two-day workshop at the National tions. It’s a big, crowded world, but Institute of Immunology, New Delhi ultimately it’s a small one, and we’re was supported by Nature India’s long all in it together.” Preethi time partners Wellcome Trust DBT We received more than 300 entries Krishnamoorthy India Alliance. from around the world. Scientists and The theme for the 2017 photo non-scientists, professional photogra- contest was Grand Challenges. Dan phers and amateurs, high-end digital Ferber, who was then executive edi- camera operatives and mobile phone tor, Grand Challenges, for Springer users all vied for the top spots. A team Samrat Nature, called for entries: of editors and art directors from across Mukherjee “Droughts. Typhoons. Rising seas. Nature Research judged the entries for Refugees. In this big, crowded world novelty, creativity, quality and print- of ours, the challenges we face can ability. The photos were also rated in sometimes seem daunting. Indeed, part by the engagement they received we must address the complex global from the online science-loving com- problems we face — the world’s grand munity on Nature India’s social media challenges — to ensure humanity a channels. healthy and sustainable future. But first we must see them clearly. That’s We present some of the winning where photography comes in. pictures, as well as some very worthy We must see the vast sweep of the contenders.

18 | | APRIL 2018 Deepak Bhau Kumbhar, These beautiful caterpillars face severe Maharashtra, India competition from one another, trying to nibble into a single piece of leaf. That’s what Just one world is happening to mankind as we greedily consume the world’s limited resources. It is time we realise that soon there won’t be enough left for all of us. Though that realization has dawned among many, out of sheer habit we continue to nibble into the same leaf.

I am a science teacher at a high school, passionate about micro wildlife photography. I photograph nature’s amazing creations and show them to my students with various messages.

APRIL 2018 | | 19 20 | | APRIL 2018 Dipankar Ghosh, A dramatic increase in population, along with Minnesota, USA climate change, are depleting global natural resources at an alarming rate. Fishermen on Fishy tales the Puri coast in Odisha, India depend on the ocean’s natural resource for their livelihood. But meeting the daily targets of fish needed to earn a living is often a big challenge.

Ricky Patel, West Bengal, India

Cleaning up my abode

Can we please use biodegradable material or adopt safer waste disposal practices, at least inside the national parks? My friends and I living in the Ranthambore National Park (Rajasthan, India), have a hard time cleaning up after careless tourists. I imagine this would be the message of this Royal Bengal Tiger, with a plastic bottle in its mouth, if it could speak to you. Incessant use of non-biodegradable polymers makes a mockery of our national programme of ‘Clean India’, even in highly protected zones.

APRIL 2018 | | 21 Enough sunlight hits the Earth in an hour to children. The next generation should be the power it for a year. Why aren’t we using this children of the sun. resource enough? Even five years ago, powering homes or industries using solar power would This photo was taken from the terrace of the be the realm of a billionaire philanthropist. Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore. However, in the last five years, the cost of solar I am a PhD student there and contributed to energy has fallen by a fifth, making it cheaper the installation of a solar rooftop power plant than fossil fuels in many countries around which offsets the energy usage of the entire the world. The story of solar energy is not just institute, while providing cheaper electricity about sunlight. Its success includes sound than that available from the grid. This photo Avinash Surendran, technology, innovation and the political will to for me is symbolic of the opportunity we have Bengaluru, India solve the grand challenge of cheap sustainable in solving the problem of cheap sustainable energy. It is a story of democratization of energy energy for all. Children of the Sun and leaving the planet a better place for our

22 | | APRIL 2018 Preethi Krishnamoorthy, I was having my morning cup of tea at the Bengaluru, India window in a quiet Bengaluru neighbourhood when I saw this little boy. He was confidently Poverty inherited running around the street without fear of the moving vehicles. He walked over to a woman, perhaps his mother, among some workers mending the road, tugged on her sari for attention and made a sad face when she refused. For her, leaving work to attend to him would probably mean no dinner for him that night. She went back to work, and he to play with a little girl he found. She readily shared a packet of chips with him. All was well again in his little world, but there were a lot of questions in mine. Would he grow up to get formal education or have a healthy life? Would the underprivileged ever be able to break their inherited cycle of poverty? The burden of these questions should weigh heavily on our collective conscience.

APRIL 2018 | | 23 Samrat Mukherjee, Every year the rains are more unpredictable. Mumbai, India Traditional ways of living are unable to cope with this change. Home alone This image was taken in the Nadia district of West Bengal, crippled after a spell of heavy cyclonic rains, a phenomenon that’s more frequent in the Bay of Bengal in recent times.

24 | | APRIL 2018 careers India

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A shot at contraception In India, a nonagenarian renews testing of a birth control vaccine By Killugudi Jayaraman Matt Hansen/SpringerNature

The idea to try to revolutionize birth control He believed that a vaccine targeting the immunogenicity of the vaccine in sexually active came to Gursaran Pran Talwar during a trip in hormone called human chorionic gonadotropin healthy women and prove its ability to prevent 1972 to the holy city of Varanasi on the banks (hCG) would be ideal. hCG is made by the pregnancy without impairment of ovulation of the Ganges. There, in the crowded streets, embryo early after fertilization and isn’t produced and derangement of menstrual regularity and the Indian biochemist bumped into groups of until the onset of pregnancy. This unique aspect bleeding profiles.” emaciated women herding their large broods of of hCG is the very reason why it is used as a Other scientists have taken note of the children. reliable test of pregnancy. Importantly, hCG is upcoming trials. “It is gratifying to hear the hCG Why did they not limit their family size when essential for implantation of the embryo in the vaccine has been revived,” says John Schiller of the government offered a basket of birth control uterine lining. So, if a vaccine were to generate the US National Cancer Institute, who a decade methods for free, Talwar, who then worked at the antibodies neutralizing hCG, Talwar reasoned, ago had considered hCG as a potential ‘payload’ All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) implantation of the embryo would be blocked, for a vaccine platform that he had developed, in Delhi, wondered. A brief conversation with thereby preventing development of a fetus. although he did not end up moving ahead them revealed the reasons: using birth control Now, after more than four decades and having with this particular application. Jeffrey Jensen, pills required remembering to take them daily developed three different successively improved director of the Women’s Health Research Unit at and the intrauterine devices (IUDs) available at versions of an anti-hCG vaccine, Talwar, 91, Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, the time caused excessive bleeding. A surgical thinks his idea is finally becoming reality. who has followed Talwar’s work since the late procedure involving ligation of the fallopian In late November, he got the news he was 1980s, is also watching to see what happens. tubes, known as ‘getting your tubes tied’ in eagerly waiting for. The Indian Council of Although he stresses that some of the immune other parts of the world, caused permanent Medical Research (ICMR), the country’s primary system’s reactions to the vaccine have to be better infertility and was therefore not preferred until funding and coordinating body for biomedical understood, he told Nature Medicine that “a later in their reproductive lives. Their husbands, research, informed him it would fund and vaccine approach could become an additional meanwhile, were reluctant to use condoms. conduct the clinical trials of his latest vaccine. option for birth control in India” and would That set Talwar thinking. Why not devise a A total of 120 women will participate in the likely be accepted in other countries, too. reversible contraceptive option for women that testing—50 in the phase 1 trial and 70 in the But Sharon Batt, a bioethicist at Canada’s didn’t require daily dosing and was free of many phase 2 trail—at two hospitals in Delhi. Talwar Dalhousie University, fears that the vaccine, if of the side effects associated with traditional expects the phase 1 trial to start by March, and, it becomes available, will inevitably be deployed birth control, such as unexpected mid-cycle according to the ICMR letter he received, the among the poor where large families are most bleeding, mood changes and headaches? trials are approved to “determine the safety and common. “It masks, rather than addresses,

28118 VOLUME 24 | NUMBER 2 | FEBRUARY 2018 NATURE MEDICINE REPRINTNEWSGRAND FEATURE CHALLENGES the social and economic reasons that poor, undereducated women have large families, including a dependence on children for economic security,” she says. For his part, Talwar hopes that the vaccine, when released, will have women opting for it because of its contraceptive benefit without the unpleasant side effects of ‘the pill’. “I am sure there would be plenty of women who would like to take three or four doses of vaccine and be free for about two years,” he says. “A role for vaccines undoubtedly exists as an aid to birth spacing, particularly in developing countries.”

An alternative choice References to fertility regulation in women exist in historical records stretching back to ancient times, but it was only in the twentieth century that a basket of efficient and secure Gursaran Pran Talwar Forging ahead: Talwar in his office with a photo of his aunt, Vimal Raghuraj, who raised him. methods of birth control became available. The first oral hormonal pill of this sort, Enovid, was first marketed as a contraceptive in 1960. IUDs whole range of vital pituitary hormones. Talwar a Delhi-based resource group for women and appeared in the 1920s, but it was only in 1988 therefore chose to make the vaccine out of the health, told Nature Medicine. The result, says that the new-generation copper IUD was first beta subunit and chemically attached it to the Talwar, was that he “could get no research grant introduced to the US market, and hormonal tetanus toxoid protein to help trigger the body or support from his peers to go ahead.” Talwar’s IUDs came later in 2001. Altogether, 18% of the to become immunized against this subunit. distress was, however, short-lived. The break world’s contraception users rely on hormonal In1974, he launched a phase 1 clinical trial came in 1983 when he became the director methods. But Talwar says that his vaccine offers that included four Indian women who had of the newly established National Institute of an advantage in that it doesn’t control women’s completed their families and had their fallopian Immunology in Delhi, where he resumed the menstruation cycles or hormones as the pill tubes tied to prevent further pregnancies. In voyage that he started a decade earlier at AIIMS. does. And he believes that modulating the these women, the vaccine made antibodies Talwar was aware of the main drawback of immune system should be better for temporary against both hCG and tetanus with no disruption his prototype vaccine: the antibody levels it contraception than IUDs, which require surgery of regular menstruation. Their antibody levels produced were insufficient to neutralize hCG. for implantation and removal. steadily rose to reach a plateau, which was To make it more powerful, in 1988, he combined The number of women using contraception maintained for about three months, after which the hCG beta subunit (which was prepared globally has already surpassed 770 million1, antibody levels began to decline, indicating that from hCG purified from the urine of pregnant with high growth in use projected for all regions the vaccine’s effects wear off over time3,4. The women) with a sheep-derived version of the of Africa and in southern Asia. However, safety and ability of the vaccine to induce anti- alpha subunit of another reproductive signaling according to the World Health Organization hCG antibodies were confirmed by Population molecule known as luteinizing hormone. The (WHO), 214 million women of reproductive Council–sponsored trials in the late 1970s using rationale behind the updated design was that the age in developing countries who want to avoid the same vaccine in Finland, Sweden, Brazil and latter hormone, being a foreign molecule, would pregnancy are not using a modern contraceptive Chile5 on 15 healthy women. stir a greater immune response in humans. method. The need for increasing contraceptive Besides Talwar, another scientist named In a 1990 phase 1 trial, this second-generation options was noted in a December study2 by Vernon Stevens at the Ohio State University had anti-hCG vaccine produced higher antibody the Guttmacher Institute in New York. This been working since the early 1970s on a similar titers than its predecessor. The phase 2 efficacy study found that, in India, half of the 48 million approach for birth control. However, unlike trial on 148 women during 1991–1993 in three pregnancies in 2015 were unintended and that Talwar who designed his vaccine to employ the centers in India demonstrated the feasibility more than 15 million ended in abortion. “Our whole beta subunit, Stevens ultimately designed a of preventing pregnancy in a reversible findings confirm and reinforce the need for more vaccine based on only a tiny fragment of the beta manner without impairment of ovulation. effective contraceptive methods for women to subunit for the WHO Task Force on Vaccines for The women had IUDs implanted until it was choose from,” Susheela Singh, the study’s author Fertility Regulation. demonstrated that their antibody levels were and the institute’s vice president for international Even though the idea of a birth control vaccine high enough to prevent pregnancy. Once research told Nature Medicine. was gaining traction outside India, this did not the IUDs were removed, there was only one Talwar’s vaccine targets hCG, which has two assuage all skepticism to the approach in Talwar’s implanted pregnancy (which was terminated subunits—alpha and beta. Ideally, a contraceptive homeland. “Back home, people felt that this was a upon the subject’s request) occurring in 1,224 vaccine would use both to stimulate an crazy idea that could make women permanently menstrual cycles6. The response to the vaccine immune response, but the alpha subunit of sterile,” he says, reminiscing about the early days was reversible. Four women in the trial, who hCG is common to other non-pregnancy that, fairly or not, generated significant debate on desired another child and who did not take a hormones produced by the pituitary gland, so ethics. “Vaccines were made against infections booster after having remained protected for a its incorporation in the intended vaccine could and not contraception,” Sarojini Nadimpally, a year or more, did conceive and delivered normal provoke an autoimmune response against this feminist bioethicist and the founder of Sama, babies7. A news report in Science8 described the

NATURE MEDICINE VOLUME 24 | NUMBER 2 | FEBRUARY 2018 11929 GRANDNEWS CHALLENGES FEATUREREPRINT

trial as a “landmark” and hailed it as the “first PhD student decades ago, this vaccine “will demonstration that women can be vaccinated revolutionize the field of contraception all over against pregnancy.” the world, especially in India where presently the population explosion is a pressing issue.” Evoking a response But not everyone is buoyant about the Although the phase 2 trial of Talwar’s second- vaccine’s prospects. Aaron Hsueh, a reproductive generation birth control vaccine provided proof biologist at the Stanford University School of of concept, only about two-thirds of women in Medicine who is familiar with the story of the the trial produced antibodies above the desired hCG vaccine, says he is “surprised that Talwar threshold, thought by Talwar to be sufficient is still working on this project.” He questions the Ato prevent pregnancy,shot for a duration ofat at least need for a vaccine given the safe contraceptive three months. So, it was Talwar’s next task to options available for women, including the enhance the vaccine’s ability to evoke an immune so-called ‘morning after pill’. Sharon Batt of response. But he suddenly faced another barrier Dalhousie University says that, although there contraceptionthat again held up the vaccine’s progress: in is no evidence of harm from the earlier versions October 1994 he had to retire from the National of the vaccine to animals, mothers or offspring, InInstitute India, of Immunology, a nonagenarian whose authorities renews testing the numbers of subjects and extent of follow-up could not extend his emeritus position nor are not adequate to conclude safety. “If this trial ofprovide a himbirth working contr space. Partingol from vaccine the goes ahead,” she says, “Talwar and his colleagues institute also meant that he had to leave behind would be advised to welcome a very public a Canadian grant he had received for developing Gursaran Pran Talwar system of external oversight.” By Killugudi Jayaraman Early days: Talwar as a graduate student at the the vaccine. Pasteur Institute. There are still skeptics in Talwar’s home The bad news kept coming. Around the country as well. “I do not think there is any same time, news arrived that a WHO task force likelihood of this vaccine being accepted as a trial undertaken on women in Sweden testing Contraception Research in 2006, his research reversible form of contraception,” says Jacob the vaccine developed by Vernon Stevens was program that had remained inactive for about Puliyel, a pediatrician at St. Stephens Hospital in suspended because the first seven of the 30 12 years was revived. Delhi and a member of India’s National Technical trial participants all experienced severe and His third-generation vaccine, now awaiting Advisory Group on Immunization. But all this unexpected side effects9. The study was not clinical trial, is a recombinant vaccine that doesn’t worry Talwar. “When it was decided

published. consists of the hCG hormone’s beta subunit to conclude the phase 2 trial in 1993, many Matt Hansen/SpringerNature Talwar says he “was left injured” when fused with a portion of a protein derived from participants offered to pay for the vaccine to asked to quit midway. But a remedy arrived Escherichia coli bacteria that is thought to be continue to be immunized,” he says, even though quickly in the form of a new grant from the more capable of stirring an immune response he and his fellow scientists could not continue TheRockefeller idea to tryFoundation to revolutionize in New birth York control and thanHe thebelieved inactivated that atetanus vaccine toxin targeting used asthe a immunogenicityadministering the of vaccinethe vaccine after in thesexually trial’s active end. camean offer to Gursaranof laboratory Pran spaceTalwar by during the National a trip in carrierhormone in calledearlier human versions. chorionic This version gonadotropin of the healthy“It reflects women in a wayand provethat they its abilitywere happyto prevent and 1972Institute to the of holy Immunology’s city of Varanasi neighbor, on the banks the vaccine(hCG) wouldpassed betoxicological ideal. hCG studies is made in rodentsby the pregnancysatisfied with without this mode impairment of contraception.” of ovulation ofInternational the Ganges. Centre There, for in Geneticthe crowded Engineering streets, andembryo marmosets early after andfertilization was ready and isn’tin produced2010 for andReflecting derangement on hisof menstrualdecades-long regularity scientific and theand IndianBiotechnology biochemist (ICGEB). bumped The into honeymoon, groups of humanuntil the testing, onset ofbut pregnancy. it has taken This eight unique years toaspect pass bleedingjourney, profiles.”which began in the holy city of emaciatedhowever, lasted women for herding just four their years, large as broodsthe space of throughof hCG isIndia’s the veryNational reason Review why Committeeit is used as on a Varanasi,Other thescientists nonagenarian have taken Talwar note posits of thatthe children.given to him was subsequently needed to Geneticreliable testManipulation of pregnancy. and theImportantly, Drugs Controller hCG is upcominganother hand trials. might “It is gratifyingbe helping to hearto bring the hCG this houseWhy the did National they not Brain limit theirResearch family Centre. size when The Generalessential offor India implantation to reach the of theclinical embryo trial instage. the vaccinetype of vaccine has been forward: revived,” “Maybe says John God Schiller has given of theprospect government of an imminentoffered a basket ouster of from birth ICGEBcontrol Bharatuterine Biotechlining. So, in Hyderabadif a vaccine willwere produce to generate the theme USlong National life to see Cancer this vaccine Institute, become who a the decade first methodswhen his for project free, Talwar, was midway who then completed worked at putthe vaccineantibodies and neutralizing make it available hCG, freeTalwar of chargereasoned, for agobirth had control considered vaccine hCG for preventingas a potential pregnancy, ‘payload’ Allhim India in a fix. Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) theimplantation clinical trials. of the embryo would be blocked, forif it asucceeds vaccine in platform the clinical that trials.” he had developed, in ButDelhi, nothing wondered. could Adeter brief Talwar, conversation an incurable with therebyWill it preventing prevent pregnancy? development Talwar of ais fetus.optimistic although he did not end up moving ahead themoptimist revealed who isthe no reasons: stranger using to difficulties. birth control He butNow, adds after that more “how than long four the decadesprotection and will having last withKillugudi this particular Jayaraman application. is a science Jeffrey writer Jensen, based pillslost hisrequired mother remembering when he was to takeeight them days daily old willdeveloped only be three clear differentafter the trials.”successively He notes improved that, in director of the Women’s Health Researchin Bangalore. Unit at andand, the as aintrauterine youth, had devicesto flee to(IUDs) Delhi available from riot- at clinicalversions trials of an of anti-hCGthe second-generation vaccine, Talwar, vaccine, 91, Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, thetorn time Hissar—his caused excessive birthplace—following bleeding. A surgical the manythinks womenhis idea isremained finally becoming protected reality. for as long 1.whoAlkema, has followed L., Kantorova, Talwar’s V., Menozzi, work C.since & Biddlecom, the late procedurepartition of involving India. Talwar ligation completed of the fallopianhis final as Intwo late and November, a half years he bygot taking the news boosters he was an 1980s,A. Lancet is also 381 ,watching 1642–1652 to (2013). see what happens. tubes,year of knowncollege asby ‘gettingstaying inyour a camp tubes set tied’ up forin averageeagerly ofwaiting every threefor. The months Indian to maintain Council theof 2.AlthoughSingh, S. he et stresses al. Lancet that Glob. some Health of the6, e111–e120 immune (2018). 6 othermigrants. parts All of this the didn’t world, stop caused him from permanent winning desiredMedical antibody Research levels (ICMR),. Talwar the country’s does not primary believe 3.system’s Talwar, reactions G.P. et al. toProc. the Natl. vaccine Acad. have Sci. USA to be 73 better, 218– infertilitya fellowship and for was graduate therefore studies not preferred at the Pasteur until therefunding is aand risk coordinating of long-term body infertility for biomedical from the understood,222 (1976). he told Nature Medicine that “a laterInstitute in their in Paris,reproductive where lives.he got Their his doctorate,husbands, vaccineresearch, and informed says a woman him itcan would conceive fund a childand 4.vaccineTalwar, G.P., Dubey, approach could S.K., Salahuddin, become an M.additional & Das, C. Contraception 13, 237–243 (1976). meanwhile,and becoming were the reluctant second to faculty use condoms. member to byconduct skipping the theclinical boosters trials and of hiswaiting latest untilvaccine. her 5.option Nash, for H. etbirth al. Fertil. control Steril. in 34 ,India” 328–335 and (1980). would joinThat the set newly Talwar launched thinking. AIIMS Why notin Delhidevise in a antibodyA total of levels 120 dropwomen below will a certainparticipate level. in the 6.likely Talwar, be accepted G.P. et al. Proc. in other Natl. Acad.countries, Sci. USA too. 91 , 8532– 8536 (1994). reversible1956.This contraceptiveindomitable spirit option drove for himwomen to carry that testing—50“It is exciting in the news,” phase Rajesh 1 trial Naz, and who 70 isin vicethe 7. ButSingh, Sharon M., Das, Batt, S.K., Suri,a bioethicist S., Singh, O. at & Talwar,Canada’s G.P. didn’ton working require on daily his dosing dream and vaccine, was free even of many after chairphase of2 trail—at research two and hospitals professor in Delhi.of obstetrics Talwar DalhousieAm. J. Reprod. University, Immunol. fears 39, 395–398that the (1998). vaccine, if ofeviction the side from effects ICGEB, associated in a laboratory with traditional he built andexpects gynecology the phase at 1 trialWest to Virginia start by March,University’s and, 8.it becomesAldhous, P.available, Science 266 will, 1484–1486 inevitably (1994).be deployed 9. van Kammen, J.R. Conceiving Contraceptives: The birthnear hiscontrol, residence such with as hisunexpected own funds. mid-cycle Thanks Schoolaccording of Medicine, to the ICMR says ofletter the newhe received, trial launch. the amongInvolvement the poor of whereUsers largein Anti-Fertility families areVaccines most bleeding,to a grant mood from changes the Indo-US and headaches? Committee on “Iftrials successful,” are approved adds to “determineNaz, who thewas safety Talwar’s and common.Development. “It masks,PhD thesis, rather AMC-UvA than (2000). addresses,

30120118 VOLUME 24 | NUMBER 2 | FEBRUARY 2018 NATURE MEDICINE COMMENTCOMMENT REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES SUZANNE LEE/PANOS SUZANNE LEE/PANOS

Kamla KamlaDevi, Rajasthan’s Devi, Rajasthan’s first female first femalesolar engineer. solar engineer. RethinkRethink India’s India’s energyenergy strategy strategy AddressAddress the needsthe needs of poor of poor and and rural rural households, households, target target subsidies subsidies and and support support low-carbonlow-carbon industries, industries, urge urge Arunabha Arunabha Ghosh Ghosh and and Karthik Karthik Ganesan Ganesan. .

ndia’s ndia’spolicy-makers policy-makers have threehave threebig big India’s India’senergy energy priorities priorities should should be reframed be reframed one-quarter one-quarter of the ofenergy the energy of those of thoseat the at the energyenergy goals: goals:providing providing everyone everyone with with as follows:as follows: to cater to tocater the todifferent the different energy energy highest highest income income levels. levels.Urban Urban centres centres are in are in access accessto energy, to energy, securing securing energy energy supply supply demandsdemands of citizens of citizens of various of various economic economic effect effectsubsidised subsidised by rural by areas,rural areas,which which are are Iand tryingIand trying to limit to carbon limit carbon emissions emissions with- with-strata; tostrata; direct to energydirect energy subsidies subsidies to benefit to benefit the the being overchargedbeing overcharged for substandard for substandard service service1. 1. out encumberingout encumbering the nation’s the nation’s growth. growth. These Thesepoor; andpoor; to andpromote to promote low-carbon low-carbon industry. industry. The poorestThe poorest households households pay 30% pay more 30% permore per importantimportant concerns concerns miss the miss point. the point. unit ofunit useful of usefulenergy energy than the than richest the richest2. 2. EnergyEnergy access access cannot cannot be assured be assured by by DISPARATEDISPARATE DEMAND DEMAND One solutionOne solution to these to disparate these disparate demands demands progressprogress towards towards a simple a simple target targetsuch assuch as UrbanUrban India aspiresIndia aspires to have to a have reliable a reliable 24/7 24/7 is to deliveris to deliver more electricitymore electricity through through the the supplyingsupplying power power 24 hours 24 hoursa day, a7 day,days 7 a days aelectricity electricity supply supply — voltages — voltages currently currently drop dropgrid whilegrid adoptingwhile adopting cleaner cleaner energy energy sources. sources. week, nationwide.week, nationwide. India hasIndia deep has divides deep divides in in at peakat demand peak demand times suchtimes as such during as during eve- eve-The IndianThe Indian government government has announced has announced the quantitythe quantity and quality and quality of energy of energy consumed consumed nings.nings. Meanwhile, Meanwhile, more thanmore one-third than one-third of of ambitiousambitious plans forplans renewable for renewable energy: energy: up up acrossacross income income groups groups and between and between rural ruralIndia’s India’s households, households, mostly mostly poor and poor rural, and rural, to 175 gigawattsto 175 gigawatts (GW) (GW) of installed of installed capac -capac- and urbanand urban households. households. Fuel subsidies Fuel subsidies are are are notare connected not connected to the toelectricity the electricity grid. grid. ity by ity2022. by 2022.There Thereare many are manychallenges challenges to to poorlypoorly designed designed and the and strategies the strategies to reduce to reduce For thoseFor thatthose are, that blackouts are, blackouts last 4–16 last hours 4–16 hoursachieving achieving this target, this target, from the from availability the availability of of them tothem enhance to enhance energy energy security security are heavy- are heavy-a day. aThe day. poorest The poorest households households consume consume resourceresource data on data which on whichto base to decisions base decisions and and handed.handed. And because And because of limited of limited action actionby the by the managingmanaging risks to risks the highto the cost high and cost the and huge the huge world’sworld’s largest largest emitters, emitters, there isthere little is left little in left in Renewable-energySCIENCESCIENCE IN INDIA IN INDIA applications variabilityvariability across acrossthe grid the in grid terms in ofterms energy of energy the globalthe global carbon carbon budget budget before before planetary planetary can provide heating, cooling, sourcessources and infrastructure. and infrastructure. cooking,A Nature mechanical A Nature special special issue issue power and safety limitssafety arelimits breached. are breached. Clean Cleanenergy energy and and nature.com/indiasciencenature.com/indiascience Meanwhile,Meanwhile, the promise the promise of reliable of reliable elec- elec- alternativealternative growth growth is imperative. is imperative. electricity. tricitytricity through through centralized centralized infrastructure infrastructure 31 156 | NATURE156 | NATURE | VOL |521 VOL | 14 521 MAY | 14 2015 MAY 2015 © 2015 ©Macmillan 2015 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited. Limited. All rights All reserved rights reserved COMMENT GRAND CHALLENGES REPRINT COMMENT

and systems remains unfulfilled. This is in India campaign, launched in September 2014, part because most electricity utilities suf- ENERGY IMBALANCE calls for aggressive job creation through rapid fer financial difficulties — they lost more Liqui ed petroleum gas (LPG) fuel is heavily growth in the industrial sector.

SOURCE: REF. 7 SOURCE: REF. than US$19 billion in 2012–13 (ref. 3). One subsidized by the government, even though Manufacturing consumes nearly one- it is used mainly by high-income families. solution is to tap smaller-scale distributed A rural electri cation programme started in third of India’s primary energy supply, and SUZANNE LEE/PANOS renewable energy sources, primarily solar, 2005 has improved the fairness of electricity contributes to 16% of gross domestic prod- biomass and small-scale hydropower. Off- consumption. uct (GDP) and more than 20% of direct grid power based on these technologies emissions8. These emissions would grow, has advantages such as network resilience,  Share of LPG subsidy, by income bracket should India achieve its target of 25% con-

flexibility and environmental and health Richest 20% Middle 50% Poorest 30% tribution to GDP from manufacturing. benefits4. The best opportunity for decarboniza- More than one million households in The richest 20% tion, therefore, is the power sector — which India rely on solar off-grid systems for light- receives 39% of contributes nearly 38% of overall emissions8. ing. A further 20 GW of energy capacity the subsidies. Here, renewable energy could account for could be achieved if 15% of irrigation pumps about 30% of the electricity mix by 2030. were converted to solar energy. Renewable- In sectors such as metal production, non- energy applications can provide heating, 39% metallic minerals, chemicals and textiles, cooling, cooking and mechanical power as which contribute most to manufacturing well as electricity5. 47% GDP, fuel accounts for 9–23% of all input More than 250 companies across India, costs compared to the industrial-sector aver- with long supply chains and networks of 4% age of 5%. Energy efficiency and alternative village-level entrepreneurs, operate in the fuels should play a key part in decarboniz- decentralized clean-energy sector already. ing these sectors. India’s cement industry, for They demonstrate that putting power in the 2 Energy-consumption inequality instance, is one of the world’s most efficient, hands of poor people can begin a transfor- but it also accounts for 7% of the country’s Electricity LPG Fairly distributed mation in how energy access is understood emissions. Here, technological advances and delivered. At the same time, such rapid 1 such as refuse-derived fuels could save growth and geographical spread could result India’s richest 600 million tonnes of coal, 550 billion units in variable quality of service and expensive 0.8 10% consumes of electricity and 3.4 gigatonnes of carbon 20% of electricity energy for poor people. More training would and 33% of LPG. dioxide emissions between now and 2050. help to keep up standards. 0.6 KamlaA Devi, shift Rajasthan’s to a different first female industrial solar engineer. mix is The challenge is to balance two types of required: away from such energy-intensive investment: those in the centralized grid, 0.4 sectors and towards metal fabrication, man- which are key to the aspirations of millions ufacture of computers and electronics, elec- of higher-income households, and funds for 0.2 trical and mechanical machinery, advanced standalone systems in isolated and under- materials, biotechnology, nanotechnology Proportion of total consumption Proportion Rethink India’s served areas or for integrating such systems 0 and photonics. This would lower the energy to the grid. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 footprint of India’s industrial growth. ■ Proportion of total population RATIONAL SUBSIDIES Arunabha Ghosh is chief executiveenergy and strategy Another reason for pursuing renewable Karthik Ganesan is senior research energy in India is to avoid the pitfalls of a A well-designed programme would increase associateAddress at the Council the on needs Energy, of poor and rural households, target subsidies and support growth strategy mostly based on fossil fuels. access to modern cooking energy (electricity Environment and Water, New Delhi, India. Already, imports account for more than 80% and gas) for the same budget. For instance, e-mail: [email protected] industries, urge Arunabha Ghosh and Karthik Ganesan. of India’s crude oil and 25% of its coal and reducing subsidized LPG to 9 cylinders 1. Harish, S. M. & Tongia, R. Do Rural Residential gas, raising worries about supply and price (instead of 12) per year per connection could ndia’sElectricity policy-makers Consumers Cross-Subsidise have three their bigUrban India’s energy priorities should be reframed one-quarter of the energy of those at the volatility6. Petroleum constitutes nearly 30% save the government $724 million. Exclud- Counterparts? Exploring the Inequity in Supply in energy goals: providing everyone with as follows: to cater to the different energy highest income levels. Urban centres are in of all commodity imports, leaving India ing the richest 15% of households from the the Indian Power Sector (Brookings, 2014). 2.access Ganesan, to energy, K., & Vishnu, securing R. Energy energy Access supply in India demands of citizens of various economic effect subsidised by rural areas, which are little fiscal room to shrink its large current subsidy could save $1.18 billion annually. 1 Iand trying— Today, to and limit Tomorrow carbon (Council emissions on Energy, with - strata; to direct energy subsidies to benefit the being overcharged for substandard service . account deficit. The savings should be redirected to increas- Environment and Water, 2014). out3. encumbering Power Finance the Corporation. nation’s Thegrowth. Performance These poor; and to promote low-carbon industry. The poorest households pay 30% more per India hands out generous energy subsi- ing the availability in rural areas of cleaner 2 importantof State concerns Power Utilities miss for the the point.years 2010–11 unit of useful energythan the richest . dies, most of which are not means-tested cookstoves and biogas, and could extend LPG Energyto 2012–13 access (PFC, cannot 2013); available be assured at http:// by DISPARATE DEMAND One solution to these disparate demands (see ‘Energy imbal- provision to 30 million more households. go.nature.com/io3psm progress towards a simple target such as Urban India aspires to have a reliable 24/7 is to deliver more electricity through the “The poorest ance’). For exam- 4. Kammen, D. M., Alstone, P. & Gershenson, D. AIP supplying power 24 hours a day, 7 days a electricity supply — voltages currently drop grid while adopting cleaner energy sources. households pay ple, in 2013–14 the WHAT TO MAKE IN INDIA? Conf. Proc. 1652, 14 (2015). week,5. WWF-India nationwide. and CEEWIndia RE+:has deepRenewables divides Beyond in at peak demand times such as during eve- The Indian government has announced 30% more than govern ment gave Energy and climate policies are closely tied the quantityElectricity and (WWF-India quality ofand energy CEEW, consumed2013). nings. Meanwhile, more than one-third of ambitious plans for renewable energy: up the richest per away $8 billion to industrial policy. Even on a low-carbon 6. Steven, D. & Ghosh, A. in The New Politics of across income groups and between rural India’s households, mostly poor and rural, to 175 gigawatts (GW) of installed capac- unit of useful worth of subsidies energy pathway, total primary energy con- Strategic Resources: Energy and Food Security and urbanChallenges households. in the 21st Century Fuel subsidies(eds Steven, are D., are not connected to the electricity grid. ity by 2022. There are many challenges to for liquified petro- sumption in India will at least double by energy.” poorlyO’Brien, designed E. & James,and the B.) strategies 40–70 (Brookings, to reduce For those that are, blackouts last 4–16 hours achieving this target, from the availability of leum gas (LPG)7. 2030 (compared to 2011 levels). Energy 2014). them to enhance energy security are heavy- a day. The poorest households consume resource data on which to base decisions and Yet less than half of urban households and efficiency alone — in industry, residential 7. Jain, A., Agrawal, S. & Ganesan, K. Rationalising handed.Subsidies, And because Reaching of the limited Underserved: action Improving by the managing risks to the high cost and the huge only 6% of rural ones exclusively use LPG and commercial spheres — cannot mitigate world’sEffectiveness largest emitters, of Domestic there LPG Subsidyis little and left in variability across the grid in terms of energy for cooking. Traditional biomass fuels such climate change. Distribution in India (Council on Energy, SCIENCE IN INDIA the global carbon budget before planetary sources and infrastructure. as wood account for 20% of Indian house- Although unemployment rates in India are Environment and Water, 2014). A Nature special issue safety8. Indian limits Network are breached. for Climate Clean Change energy Assessment. and Meanwhile, the promise of reliable elec- holds’ energy use. The government must low (less than 5%) nearly 35% of employment nature.com/indiascience alternativeIndia: Greenhouse growth is Gasimperative. Emissions 2007 (Ministry tricity through centralized infrastructure rationalize subsidies and target them better. is casual labour. The government’s Make in of Environment and Forests, 2010).

32 156 | NATURE | VOL 521 | 14 MAY 2015 14 MAY 2015 | VOL 521 | NATURE | 157 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved COMMENT REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES and systems remains unfulfilled. This is in India campaign, launched in September 2014, part because most electricity utilities suf- ENERGY IMBALANCE calls for aggressive job creation through rapid fer financial difficulties — they lost more Liqui ed petroleum gas (LPG) fuel is heavily growth in the industrial sector.

SOURCE: REF. 7 SOURCE: REF. than US$19 billion in 2012–13 (ref. 3). One subsidized by the government, even though Manufacturing consumes nearly one- it is used mainly by high-income families. solution is to tap smaller-scale distributed A rural electri cation programme started in third of India’s primary energy supply, and renewable energy sources, primarily solar, 2005 has improved the fairness of electricity contributes to 16% of gross domestic prod- biomass and small-scale hydropower. Off- consumption. uct (GDP) and more than 20% of direct grid power based on these technologies emissions8. These emissions would grow, has advantages such as network resilience,  Share of LPG subsidy, by income bracket should India achieve its target of 25% con- flexibility and environmental and health Richest 20% Middle 50% Poorest 30% tribution to GDP from manufacturing. benefits4. The best opportunity for decarboniza- More than one million households in The richest 20% tion, therefore, is the power sector — which India rely on solar off-grid systems for light- receives 39% of contributes nearly 38% of overall emissions8. ing. A further 20 GW of energy capacity the subsidies. Here, renewable energy could account for could be achieved if 15% of irrigation pumps about 30% of the electricity mix by 2030. were converted to solar energy. Renewable- TORFINN/PANOS SVEN In sectors such as metal production, non- energy applications can provide heating, 39% metallic minerals, chemicals and textiles, TORFINN/PANOS SVEN cooling, cooking and mechanical power as which contribute most to manufacturing well as electricity5. 47% GDP, fuel accounts for 9–23% of all input More than 250 companies across India, costs compared to the industrial-sector aver- with long supply chains and networks of 4% age of 5%. Energy efficiency and alternative village-level entrepreneurs, operate in the fuels should play a key part in decarboniz- decentralized clean-energy sector already. ing these sectors. India’s cement industry, for They demonstrate that putting power in the 2 Energy-consumption inequality instance, is one of the world’s most efficient, hands of poor people can begin a transfor- but it also accounts for 7% of the country’s Electricity LPG Fairly distributed mation in how energy access is understood emissions. Here, technological advances and delivered. At the same time, such rapid 1 such as refuse-derived fuels could save growth and geographical spread could result India’s richest 600 million tonnes of coal, 550 billion units in variable quality of service and expensive 0.8 10% consumes of electricity and 3.4 gigatonnes of carbon 20% of electricity energy for poor people. More training would and 33% of LPG. dioxide emissions between now and 2050. help to keep up standards. 0.6 A shift to a different industrial mix is The challenge is to balance two types of required: away from such energy-intensive investment: those in the centralized grid, 0.4 sectors and towards metal fabrication, man- which are key to the aspirations of millions ufacture of computers and electronics, elec- of higher-income households, and funds for 0.2 trical and mechanical machinery, advanced standalone systems in isolated and under- materials, biotechnology, nanotechnology Proportion of total consumption Proportion served areas or for integrating such systems 0 and photonics. This would lower the energy to the grid. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 footprint of India’s industrial growth. ■ Proportion ofA total counsellor population at Nairobi Women’s Hospital. A man with mental health problems talks to a volunteer psychiatrist from the Institute of Human Behaviour and Allied Sciences (IHBAS) in Delhi. RATIONAL SUBSIDIES Arunabha Ghosh is chief executive and A counsellor at Nairobi Women’s Hospital. Another reason for pursuing renewable Karthik Ganesan is senior research energy in India is to avoid the pitfalls of a A well-designed programme would increase associate at the Council on Energy, growth strategy mostly based on fossil fuels. access to modern cooking energy (electricity Environment and Water, New Delhi, India. Already, imports account for more than 80% and gas) for the same budget.Action For instance, e-mail: [email protected] on mental health of India’s crude oil and 25% of its coal and reducing subsidized LPG to 9 cylinders Action on mental health 1. Harish, S. M. & Tongia, R. Do Rural Residential gas, raising worries about supply and price (instead of 12) per year per connection could Electricity Consumers Cross-Subsidise their Urban volatility6. Petroleum constitutes nearly 30% save the government $724 million. Exclud- Counterparts? Exploring the Inequity in Supply in of all commodity imports, leaving India ing the richest 15% of households from the the Indian Power Sector (Brookings, 2014). needs2. Ganesan, global K., & Vishnu, R. Energy Access in India cooperation little fiscal room to shrink its large current subsidy could save $1.18 billion annually. — Today, and Tomorrow (Council on Energy, needs global cooperation account deficit. The savings should Asbe redirected threats to increas to populations- Environment transcend and Water, 2014). national boundaries, it is crucial that responses India hands out generous energy subsi- ing the availability in rural areas of cleaner 3. Power Finance Corporation. The Performance As threats to populations transcend national boundaries, it is crucial that responses to mental-healthof problems State Power Utilities do for the too, years 2010–11 say Pamela Y. Collins and Shekhar Saxena. dies, most of which are not means-tested cookstoves and biogas, and could extend LPG to 2012–13 (PFC, 2013); available at http:// to mental-health problems do too, say Pamela Y. Collins and Shekhar Saxena. (see ‘Energy imbal- provision to 30 million more households. go.nature.com/io3psm “The poorest 4. Kammen, D. M., Alstone, P. & Gershenson, D. AIP ance’). For exam- ental-health disorders are the expand. Notable are the tens of millions community to make the case for investment households pay WHAT TO MAKE IN INDIA? Conf. Proc. 1652, 14 (2015). ple, in 2013–14 the leading causes of disability5. WWF-India and CEEWof migrants RE+: Renewables fleeing Beyond persecution, conflict in mentalental-health health. In thedisorders past three are years, the expand. Notable are the tens of millions community to make the case for investment 30% more than govern ment gave Energy and climate policiesworldwide. are closely Nearlytied 30% ofElectricity people (WWF-India and and violence, CEEW, 2013). as well as the survivors of the importanceleading of causes mental ofhealth disability has been of migrants fleeing persecution, conflict in mental health. In the past three years, 6. Steven, D. & Ghosh, A. in The New Politics of the richest per away $8 billion to industrial policy.Maround Even the on world a low-carbon experience a mood, anxi- Ebola and other recent threats. Yet there highlightedworldwide. by the Nearly WHO, 30% in itsof people Mental and violence, as well as the survivors of the importance of mental health has been unit of useful worth of subsidies energy pathway, total primary energy con- Strategic Resources: Energy and Food Security Maround the world experience a mood, anxi- Ebola and other recent threats. Yet there highlighted by the WHO, in its Mental ety or substance-use disorder in theirChallenges life- in the 21stare Centuryonly 9 mental-health (eds Steven, D., providers per Health Action Plan for 2013–20; by leaders energy.” for liquified petro- sumption in India will1 at least double by O’Brien, E. & James, B.) 40–70 (Brookings, ety or substance-use disorder in their life- are only 9 mental-health providers per Health Action Plan for 2013–20; by leaders 7 time . The resources required to address 100,000 people globally; an extra 1.7 million of countries1 in the Asia-Pacific Economic leum gas (LPG) . 2030 (comparedthese to 2011 conditions levels). are Energy inadequate, unequally2014). mental-health workers are needed in low- timeCooperation. The resources (APEC); required and by to the address health 100,000 people globally; an extra 1.7 million of countries in the Asia-Pacific Economic

7. Jain, A., Agrawal, S. & Ganesan, K. Rationalising FREEDMAN/PANOS STUART Yet less than half of urban households and efficiency alone — in industry, residential 2 these conditions are inadequate, unequally mental-health workers are needed in low- Cooperation (APEC); and by the health distributed, inefficiently used andSubsidies, static . Reachingand the middle-income Underserved: Improving countries alone. ministers of the Commonwealth nations.2 In only 6% of rural ones exclusively use LPG and commercial spheresThe widespread — cannot incarceration mitigate of peopleEffectiveness with of DomesticMental LPG Subsidy health and does not lack political distributed,September inefficiently2015, mental used health and was static incor. - and middle-income countries alone. ministers of the Commonwealth nations. In for cooking. Traditional biomass fuels such climate change. mental-health disorders persists. Distribution in Indiasupport. (Council on This Energy, month, the World Bank and Theporated widespread into the incarceration United Nations’ of people Sustainable with Mental health does not lack political September 2015, mental health was incor- as wood account for 20% of Indian house- Although unemployment rates in India are Environment and Water, 2014). mental-health disorders persists. support. This month, the World Bank and porated into the United Nations’ Sustainable The need and demand for mental-health8. Indian Network forthe Climate World Change Health Assessment. Organization (WHO) will Development Goals. holds’ energy use. The government must low (less than 5%) carenearly is 35%increasing of employment as vulnerable populationsIndia: Greenhouse together Gas Emissions address 2007 (Ministrythe broader development TheFive need years and ago, demand we, as formembers mental-health of the the World Health Organization (WHO) will Development Goals. rationalize subsidies and target them better. is casual labour. The government’s Make in of Environment and Forests, 2010). care is increasing as vulnerable populations together address the broader development Five years ago, we, as members of the 7 APRIL 2016 | VOL 532 | NATURE | 25 33 14 MAY 2015 | VOL© 2016 521 Macmillan | NATURE Publishers | 157 Limited. All rights reserved 7 APRIL 2016 | VOL 532 | NATURE | 25 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved GRANDCOMMENT CHALLENGES REPRINT

Grand Challenges in Global Mental Health intervention shows great promise in Iran, North–north learning. The Arctic Council, initiative, called for an equitable and global for instance, can it be adapted for Poland or an intergovernmental forum for the circum- approach to reducing the burden of mental Indonesia? polar states, has emerged as an avenue for disorders3. The visibility of the issue has come In the 1980s and 1990s, global collabo- launching collaborative efforts to reduce a long way since then. And although there rative research led by the WHO enabled suicide rates in those countries. Young Alaska continue to be problems with the delivery of cross-national comparisons of the incidence, Native men experience the highest rates of mental-health services, funding for research prevalence and long-term course of mental suicide of any demographic group in the and innovation in mental health in low- and disorders, as well as cross-cultural concep- United States. Similarly high rates also occur middle-income countries has increased tualizations of mental illness and traditional among some indigenous Arctic communi- substantially (albeit from a small base). modes of understanding and management. ties in Canada, Greenland and Russia. Local Since 2011, new investments estimated at Over the past 15 years, many of the efforts responders can benefit from what has been US$79.3 million have been made by the three in global mental health have focused on learned and shown to be effective elsewhere. largest funders of mental-health research in introducing high-quality research in low- An Arctic Council initiative that ran low- and middle-income countries (Grand and middle-income countries to establish between 2013 and 2015, led by Canada, Challenges Canada, the UK Department an evidence-base for the delivery of services identified promising practices for suicide for International TORFINN/PANOS SVEN Development and the US in these nations. prevention and mental-health promotion, National Institute of Mental Health). More-recent research has focused on and mapped the evidence across circumpolar Researchers in such countries are tackling efficacy, effectiveness and implementa- communities, noting what interventions were the dearth of mental-health professionals tion in low- and middle-income countries. acceptable where. Teams identified common by testing the delivery of care by non-spe- Local research teams frequently collabo- threads that made a programme scalable and cialists — such as peers, community health rate with colleagues in rich countries. Yet, adaptable across the region. These included workers or primary-care providers. Others the relevance of this work to underserved having sustained funding and dedicated are developing and testing applications on populations in high-income countries is physical spaces for services; easy access for smartphones and tablets to extend access not routinely part of the global conversa- community members; having skilled workers to screening and treatment4. tion. In low-income countries, the limited who were based in and were knowledgeable Now, clinicians, patients, caregivers and infrastructure for community mental-health about the community; and creating forums researchers need to learn from each other. care and the dismal budgetary allocations for talking about suicide. Crucially, the effort The knowledge gained in all countries must for mental health are significant obstacles continues in the US-led RISING SUN initia- be evaluated, disseminated and adapted for to implementing research findings. tive, which engages researchers, community- local use everywhere. Crucially, everyone The status quo is not working — and members and decision-makers to identify involved must start with the same mindset: innovations are needed urgently. The fol- shared tools. when it comes to mental health, all countries lowing case studies are exemplars of the are developing countries. approaches we advocate. South–north learning. BasicNeeds is a global Of course, the resources available are mental-health charity, established in 2000 drastically different in the developing and South–south learning. The Programme for in Britain, that facilitates access to employ- developed worlds: a teenager in Afghanistan Improving Mental Health Care (PRIME) is ment and mental-health care for people with seeking mental-health care does so in a coun- a consortium of research institutions and mental illness. The organization refined a try that has 1 psychiatrist for every 10 million ministries of health funded by the UK govern- model for helping people into care and work people, notA 1 counsellorper 5,000, atas Nairobiin, for instance, Women’s Bel Hospital.- ment. PRIME aims to scale up mental-health and to advocate for their problems in Afri- gium. But no country has sufficient numbers services in Ethiopia, India, Nepal, South can and Asian countries, including Ghana, of trained mental-health-service providers. Africa and Uganda Tanzania, Nepal, China and Vietnam. Nearly one-third of the US population lacks by integrating “If an In Nepal, for example, a local charity that adequate access to mental-health-care pro- these into primary intervention specialized in community-based rehabilita- viders. There areAction similar shortages in parts care.on Together, mental shows great tion adoptedhealth the BasicNeeds model. Working of countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, these countries promise in Iran, closely with government-funded mental- Finland, France, Japan, New Zealand and Slo- have developed for instance, can health clinics, the programme conducted vakia. Even in wealthy countries, 40–60% of locally relevant it be adapted community outreach and facilitated access people with severe mental disorders do not mental-health plans for Poland or to mental-health-care services. It reduced needs5 global cooperation receive the care they need . informed by com- India?” expenses for families with ill members. Eli- AcrossAs all threats settings, those to with populations the fewest transcendmunity advisory national boundaries,gible it families is crucial received trainingthat responses and financial social and economic resources are least likely boards that include district health admin- support for developing and implementing a to receive qualityto mental-health mental-health services, problems istrators, do service too, users, say traditional Pamela healers Y. Collinsbusiness and plan Shekharfor income generation. Saxena People. be they in Arctic areas of Canada, inner- and police. The consortium observes cross- who received support were all earning money city Glasgow orental-health rural Sierra Leone. disorders Today are’s the countryexpand. differences Notable and are similarities the tens of in millions the 6–12 monthscommunity later. to make BasicNeeds the case forreceived investment global mental-healthleading research causes mustof disability lead evolvingof migrants mental-health-care fleeing persecution, systems. conflict fundingin mental last year health. from In the the Robert past three Wood years, to interventionsworldwide. developed Nearly in and 30% for suchof people Theand shared violence, framework as well foras thedeveloping survivors of Johnsonthe importance Foundation of in mental Princeton, health New has been underservedMaround thecommunities. world experience a mood, anxi- and implementingEbola and other plans recent with threats. local adap Yet -there Jersey,highlighted to translate bythe the model WHO, to a deprived,in its Mental ety or substance-use disorder in their life- tationsare isonly a powerful 9 mental-health tool. Adaptations providers per inner-cityHealth environment Action Plan in for the 2013–20; United States. by leaders MOVING FORWARD1 time . The resources required to address included100,000 people change-management globally; an extra interven 1.7 million- Thisof countrieskind of translation in the Asia-Pacific of practices Economic is Mirroringthese theconditions global community are inadequate,’s commit unequally- tionsmental-health for district managers workers in are South needed Africa, in low- just beginning.Cooperation Technology (APEC); is and increasingly by the health mentdistributed, to sustainable inefficiently development, used the and world static 2. a mental-healthand middle-income case manager countries in India, alone. and enablingministers innovators of the Commonwealth to make their nations.ideas In needsThe a global widespread commitment incarceration — financial of people with new assessmentMental health tools in does Nepal. not All lack country political and projectsSeptember public. 2015, One mental venue health for sharing was incor - as wellmental-health as moral — disorders to mental persists. health that teamssupport. have recognized This month, the need the Worldfor systemic Bank and ideasporated is the Mental into the Health United Innovation Nations’ Sustainable Net- supportsThe the need translatio and demandn of idea fors an mental-healthd inter- changes.the World The nextHealth phase Organization of the study (WHO) is will workDevelopment (MHIN), funded Goals. by Grand Challenges ventionscare isb etweenincreasing poor as vulnerableand rich s ettingspopulations evaluation,together to assessaddress whether the broader and how development these CanadaFive and yearsmanaged ago, bywe, a asresearch members team of at the while taking into account local needs. If an changes affect disease burden. the London School for Hygiene & Tropical 34 7 APRIL 2016 | VOL 532 | NATURE | 25 26 | NATURE | VOL 532 | 7 APRIL 2016 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved COMMENT REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGESCOMMENT

Grand Challenges in Global Mental Health intervention shows great promise in Iran, North–north learning. The Arctic Council, and health systems often lack the funding, initiative, called for an equitable and global for instance, can it be adapted for Poland or an intergovernmental forum for the circum- capacity, motivation and protocols for approach to reducing the burden of mental Indonesia? polar states, has emerged as an avenue for monitoring and evaluation. Rarer still is a disorders3. The visibility of the issue has come In the 1980s and 1990s, global collabo- launching collaborative efforts to reduce mechanism for using the results of evalu- a long way since then. And although there rative research led by the WHO enabled suicide rates in those countries. Young Alaska POLARIS/EYEVINE ation to improve services. So people need continue to be problems with the delivery of cross-national comparisons of the incidence, Native men experience the highest rates of to be trained to monitor and evaluate new mental-health services, funding for research prevalence and long-term course of mental suicide of any demographic group in the and established approaches. Collabora- and innovation in mental health in low- and disorders, as well as cross-cultural concep- United States. Similarly high rates also occur tive research networks can facilitate this middle-income countries has increased tualizations of mental illness and traditional among some indigenous Arctic communi- kind of capacity building. The WHO Men- substantially (albeit from a small base). modes of understanding and management. ties in Canada, Greenland and Russia. Local tal Health Action Plan sets out six global Since 2011, new investments estimated at Over the past 15 years, many of the efforts responders can benefit from what has been targets to achieve by 2020. For example, US$79.3 million have been made by the three in global mental health have focused on learned and shown to be effective elsewhere. it calls for a 20% increase in service cov- largest funders of mental-health research in introducing high-quality research in low- An Arctic Council initiative that ran TIMES/REDUX/EYEVINE KOHN/THE NEW YORK DAVID erage for severe mental disorders and a low- and middle-income countries (Grand and middle-income countries to establish between 2013 and 2015, led by Canada, 10% reduction in suicide rates globally. Challenges Canada, the UK Department an evidence-base for the delivery of services identified promising practices for suicide Mental-health advocates, clinicians and for International Development and the US in these nations. TORFINN/PANOS SVEN prevention and mental-health promotion, patient groups in each country must track National Institute of Mental Health). More-recent research has focused on and mapped the evidence across circumpolar progress towards these targets. Researchers in such countries are tackling efficacy, effectiveness and implementa- communities, noting what interventions were the dearth of mental-health professionals tion in low- and middle-income countries. acceptable where. Teams identified common Disseminate successes and failures. The by testing the delivery of care by non-spe- Local research teams frequently collabo- threads that made a programme scalable and risks that result from sharing information cialists — such as peers, community health rate with colleagues in rich countries. Yet, adaptable across the region. These included Brochures and handouts on depression, anxiety and mental health in Goa, India. In India, as in much of the about programme weaknesses must be min- workers or primary-care providers. Others the relevance of this work to underserved having sustained funding and dedicated Palestiniandeveloping world,children depression affected by and conflict anxiety attend are rarely a UN diagnosed mental-health or treated. programme in the Gaza Strip. imized. Researchers rely on journal publica- are developing and testing applications on populations in high-income countries is physical spaces for services; easy access for tions to disseminate information, but it is smartphones and tablets to extend access not routinely part of the global conversa- community members; having skilled workers Medicine and the WHO’s Department of Use the community’s knowledge. The much harder to publish unsuccessful trials to screening and treatment4. tion. In low-income countries, the limited who were based in and were knowledgeable Mental Health and Substance Abuse (of growing evidence base on effective low-cost or evaluations. We need options beyond Now, clinicians, patients, caregivers and infrastructure for community mental-health about the community; and creating forums which S.S. is director). Another virtual mental-health treatments is underused. research databases. Online platforms such researchers need to learn from each other. care and the dismal budgetary allocations for talking about suicide. Crucially, the effort community is the WHO’s Global Clinical Scientific knowledge is often inaccessible to as the MHIN could be used here, espe- The knowledge gained in all countries must for mental health are significant obstacles continues in the US-led RISING SUN initia- Practice Network. This online platform practitioners, because they lack the time and cially by those who are not researchers who be evaluated, disseminated and adapted for to implementing research findings. tive, which engages researchers, community- allows thousands of clinicians from around resources to review information. We need develop new solutions to local problems. local use everywhere. Crucially, everyone The status quo is not working — and members and decision-makers to identify the world to contribute to and benefit from to develop ways to synthesize new global involved must start with the same mindset: innovations are needed urgently. The fol- shared tools. mental-health research. Through it, more mental-health findings routinely, and present In a world where mental-health innova- when it comes to mental health, all countries lowing case studies are exemplars of the than 12,000 clinicians from 139 countries this information so that users can apply it. The tions cross borders as people do, a mother are developing countries. approaches we advocate. South–north learning. BasicNeeds is a global have participated in field trials, testing diag- global fight against HIV/AIDS presents one migrating from Khayelitsha in South Of course, the resources available are mental-health charity, established in 2000 nostic guidelines in a wide range of settings. model to draw from: networks of funders, Africa to New York could meet a commu- drastically different in the developing and South–south learning. The Programme for in Britain, that facilitates access to employ- Such networks also break national, profes- researchers, clinicians and patients have been nity health worker who delivers a depres- developed worlds: a teenager in Afghanistan Improving Mental Health Care (PRIME) is ment and mental-health care for people with sional and linguistic boundaries to facilitate able to achieve standardized care protocols sion treatment in her home, much like the seeking mental-health care does so in a coun- a consortium of research institutions and mental illness. The organization refined a global conversation and learning. by sharing information through interna- community counsellor at her maternal try that has 1 psychiatrist for every 10 million ministries of health funded by the UK govern- model for helping people into care and work tional working groups, society representa- health clinic in South Africa. People move people, not 1 per 5,000, as in, for instance, Bel- ment. PRIME aims to scaleA counsellorup mental-health at Nairobi Women’sand toHospital. advocate for their problems in Afri- NEXT STEPS tives and UNAIDS, the UN programme for because of needs and opportunities — gium. But no country has sufficient numbers services in Ethiopia, India, Nepal, South can and Asian countries, including Ghana, To meet the mental-health needs of HIV/AIDS. Similar networks exist in vaccine so, too, must knowledge. ■ of trained mental-health-service providers. Africa and Uganda Tanzania, Nepal, China and Vietnam. vulnerable people everywhere, we must and contraception research. Nearly one-third of the US population lacks by integrating “If an In Nepal, for example, a local charity that develop, study and practise the translation of Pamela Y. Collins is director of the Office adequate access to mental-health-care pro- these into primary intervention specialized in community-based rehabilita- knowledge and ideas in all directions. How? Sustain effective mental-health treat- for Research on Disparities & Global Mental viders. There are similar shortages in parts care. Together, showsAction great tion adopted the on BasicNeeds model. mental Working Herehealth are six suggestions. ments. A major problem is that research Health, US National Institute of Mental of countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, these countries promise in Iran, closely with government-funded mental- funding does not support continued Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA. Finland, France, Japan, New Zealand and Slo- have developed for instance, can health clinics, the programme conducted Determine which innovations will scale up. delivery of services on the ground — this Shekhar Saxena is director of the vakia. Even in wealthy countries, 40–60% of locally relevant it be adapted community outreach and facilitated access Sometimes local application is enough. The requires a greater commitment from local Department of Mental Health and people with severe mental disorders do not mental-health plans for Poland or to mental-health-care services. It reduced community must distil guiding principles and national governments and aid agen- Substance Abuse, World Health 5 needs global cooperation receive the care they need . informed by com- India?” expenses for families with ill members. Eli- that enable practitioners to decide what is cies to invest in mental health. The WHO Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Across all settings, those with the fewest munity advisory As threats to populationsgible families receivedtranscend training and national financial boundaries, itright is for crucial which contexts. that This responses requires health Mental Health Action Plan specifically calls e-mail: [email protected]; social and economic resources are least likely boards that include district health admin- support for developing and implementing a planners to consider system-level issues for stronger leadership and governance for [email protected] to receive quality mental-health services, istrators, service users, traditionalto mental-health healers business problems plan for income do generation. too, say People Pamela Y. Collins(such and as human Shekhar resources andSaxena financing). and mental health at the national level, includ- 1. Steel, Z. et al. Int. J. Epidemiol. 43, 476–493 be they in Arctic areas of Canada, inner- and police. The consortium observes cross- who received support were all earning money community-level needs (including accept- ing adequate funding. Around $1.6 billion (2014). city Glasgow or rural Sierra Leone. Today’s country differences and similaritiesental-health in the disorders 6–12 months are the later.expand. BasicNeeds Notable received are the tens of millions abilitycommunity and feasibility to make of the care case practices). for investment In all is needed in low-income countries, and 2. Saxena, S., Thornicroft, G., Knapp, M. & global mental-health research must lead evolving mental-health-care systems.leading causes offunding disability last year fromof migrants the Robert fleeing Wood persecution, conflict contexts,in mental cost, health. complexity In the and past fragmented three years, between $6.6 billion and $9.33 billion in Whiteford, H. Lancet 370, 878–889 (2007). to interventions developed in and for such The shared framework for developing Johnson Foundation in Princeton, New services can curtail wider implementation. lower-middle-income countries, to provide 3. Collins, P. Y. et al. Nature 475, 27–30 (2011). worldwide. Nearly 30% of people and violence, as well as the survivors of the importance of mental health has been 4. Hamdani, S. U., Minhas, F. A., Iqbal, Z. & Rahman, underserved communities. and implementingMaround plans withthe world local experienceadap- a Jersey,mood, toanxi translate- theEbola model and to other a deprived, recent threats. Yet there highlighted by the WHO, in its Mental a basic package of mental health services; A. Pediatrics 136, 1166–1172 (2015). tations is a powerful tool. Adaptations inner-city environment in the United States. Train scientists to translate research this is eight and six times more, respectively, 5. Wang, P. S. et al. Lancet 370, 841–850 (2007). ety or substance-use disorder in their life- are only 9 mental-health providers per Health Action Plan for 2013–20; by leaders 6 MOVING FORWARD included change-management1 interven- This kind of translation of practices is findings. A new cadre of global mental- than current investments . The message that 6. Gilbert, B. J., Patel, V., Farmer, P. E. & Lu, C. PLoS time . The resources required to address 100,000 people globally; an extra 1.7 million of countries in the Asia-Pacific Economic Med. 12, e1001834 (2015). Mirroring the global community’s commit- tions for district managersthese conditions in South areAfrica, inadequate, just unequally beginning. Technologymental-health is increasingly workers are needed in low- healthCooperation researchers (APEC); is needed and to by adapt the treathealth- poor investment in mental health is costly 7. Vigo, D., Thornicroft, G. & Atun, R. Lancet ment to sustainable development, the world a mental-health case manager in India, and enabling innovators2 to make their ideas ments to fit local health systems. They must for all countries must be communicated to Psychiatry 3, 171–178 (2016). distributed, inefficiently used and static . and middle-income countries alone. ministers of the Commonwealth nations. In 7 needs a global commitment — financial new assessment toolsThe in widespread Nepal. All incarcerationcountry ofand people projects with public. OneMental venue health for sharing does not lack political beSeptember able to assess 2015, needs mental and must health be equippedwas incor - leaders with the power to invest . as well as moral — to mental health that teams have recognized the need for systemic ideas is the Mental Health Innovation Net- with the collaborative skills to engage deci- The views expressed here do not necessarily mental-health disorders persists. support. This month, the World Bank and porated into the United Nations’ Sustainable represent those of the US National Institute supports the translation of ideas and inter- changes. The next phaseThe need of the and study demand is for mental-healthwork (MHIN), fundedthe Worldby Grand Health Challenges Organization (WHO) will sion-makers,Development clinicians Goals. and community Evaluate the outcomes of treatments. of Mental Health, the US National Institutes of ventions between poor and rich settings evaluation, to assesscare whether is increasing and how as these vulnerable Canada populations and managed together by a research address teamthe broader at development members.Five years They ago, need we, to asgenerate members knowledge of the Globally, we lack adequate information Health, the US government or the World Health while taking into account local needs. If an changes affect disease burden. the London School for Hygiene & Tropical that informs cross-cultural translation. on the impact of services because clinics Organization. 7 APRIL 2016 | VOL 532 | NATURE | 25 35 26 | NATURE | VOL 532 | 7 APRIL 2016 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved 7 APRIL 2016 | VOL 532 | NATURE | 27 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS

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Akshay Kumar plays the lead in Pad Man, a fictionalized biopic of sanitary-pad innovator Arunachalam Muruganantham.

India should be seen as a country of one national innovation prize, a spot on TIME collaboration with women’s self-help groups billion minds.” magazine’s ‘100 most influential people’ list and cooperatives. He has spawned close to Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian 2,500 such centres, in India and a dozen an unconventional and tenderhearted man. awards, the Padma Shri, in 2016. other developing countries. His pads retail In the early 1990s, he was an assistant in a Pad Man makes Muruganantham’s at a fraction of the cost of those from multi- hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often national brands. during menstruation concerned him, so he descends a little Although Pad Man captures the essence experimented with materials — first cotton, into preachiness. “Period poverty of grass-roots innovation and benefits from Akshay Kumar plays the lead in PadAkshay Man Kumar, a plays fictionalized the lead in Pad biopicMan, a fictionalized of sanitary-pad biopic of sanitary-pad innovator innovator Arunachalam Arunachalam Muruganantham. Muruganantham.then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too, with is a health issue true-to-life portrayals by a brilliant set of wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a laboured first affecting women actors, the instructive overtone mars the India should be seen as a country of one national innovation prize, a spot on TIME neering.collaboration At first, withwhen women’s it came self-helpto testing groups his half, in which the in countries narrative. If it wants to reach other countries India should be seen as a countrybillion minds.” of one national innovationmagazine’s ‘100 prize, most influential a spot people’on TIME list prototypes, and cooperatives.collaboration “the only He available has spawned with victim women’sclose was to risk self-help to women’s groups across the affected by period poverty, the song-and- Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian my2,500 such wife”, Muruganantham centres, in India said and in a a2012 dozen health is not clearly globe.” dance might be a dampener. The film is also billion minds.” an unconventional and tenderheartedmagazine’s man. ‘100awards, most the Padma influential Shri, in 2016. people’ listTED other talk. developingand In Pad cooperatives. Man countries., we see Lakshmikant His pads He retail has spawneddelineated, and close the to currently an urban sensation. Reaching its Muruganantham’s is the inspiringIn the early story 1990s,BOLLYWOOD of he was an assistantin 2014, in a and onePad Manof India’s makes Muruganantham’shighest civilian TAKESperfecting at a fraction2,500 such the scientific of the cost steps of centres,those of pulverizing from multi in -Indiastigma and associated a dozen target audience in India’s rural hinterland hardware workshop.BOLLYWOOD His wife’s use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often TAKEScellulosenational fibres, brands. compressing them, sealing with the subject of menstruation is signalled might be difficult, given the taboo — unless hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often cellulosenational fibres, brands. compressing them, sealing with the subject of menstruation is signalled might be difficult, given the taboo — unless an unconventional and tenderheartedduring menstruation man. concernedawards, him, so he the Padmadescends Shri,a little in 2016. the padAlthough withother non-woven Pad developing Man fabriccaptures and the sanitiz countries. essence- by burstsHis pads of “Sharam retail!” (shame) from the Balki and team have a plan for that. duringCOMMENT menstruationBOOKS concerned & ARTS him, so he descends a little the padAlthough with non-woven Pad Man fabriccaptures and the sanitiz essence- by bursts of “Sharam!” (shame) from the Balki and team have a plan for that. In the early 1990s, he was anexperimented assistant with in materialsa — firstPad cotton, Man into makes preachiness. Muruganantham’s “Period poverty ing of the grass-roots wholeat a with fraction innovation ultraviolet andof light. thebenefits And cost from it of thosefemale fromactors. multiEndorsing- Bollywood’s Meanwhile, a social movement is now then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too, with wastrue-to-life all accomplished portrayals using by four a brilliant ingenious, set of un apologetic love affair with song and associated with the film. Muruganantham hardware workshop. His wife’sthen usecellulose of ragsfibre — to makeunusual a pad that journeyIt falters, relatable, too, with althoughis a health issue it often was true-to-life all accomplishednational portrayals using brands. by four a brilliant ingenious, set of un apologetic love affair with song and associated with the film. Muruganantham wouldn’t leak, in a processON of reverse engi- MENSTRUALa laboured first affecting women makeshiftactors, machinesthe instructive that cost overtone peanuts, mars com -the dance, the demure Gayatri suddenly breaks has mentored a biologist, Maya during menstruation concernedneering. him, At first, so when he it came todescends testing his ahalf, little in which the in countries parednarrative. to the If Althoughgiant it wants assembly to reach Padlines other usedMan countries by captures into an exaggerated, the essence hip-swaying number to Vishwakarma, who came home to rural prototypes, “the only available victim was risk to women’s across the multinationalaffected by companies.period poverty, the song-and- celebrate the puberty of a girl next door. Madhya Pradesh from California four years experimented with materials — first cotton, into preachiness. At the costof ofgrass-roots being ostracized innovation for openly andThe benefits rest of the fromfilm brings in the usual ago to spread menstrual-hygiene awareness. my wife”, Muruganantham said in a 2012 health is not clearly“Period globe.” poverty Atdance the costmight of bebeing a dampener. ostracized The for film openly is also The rest of the film brings in the usual ago to spread menstrual-hygiene awareness. then cellulose fibre — to makeTED talk.a pad In Pad that Man , we see LakshmikantIt falters, too,delineated, with and the tacklingcurrently a true-to-lifehidden an urban issue, sensation. he worked portrayals Reaching doggedly its by elementsa brilliant of a potboiler set of — a love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigmaSTIGMA associatedis a health issue on targetthe pad’s audience design. in The India’s biggest rural challenge hinterland rise and rise of the protagonist and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigmaSTIGMA associated on targetthe pad’s audience design. in The India’s biggest rural challenge hinterland rise and rise of the protagonist and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her wouldn’t leak, in a process ofcellulose reverse fibres, engi compressing- them,a laboured sealing with first the subject affecting of menstruation is women signalled was might finding beactors, difficult, volunteers giventhe to the instructivetest taboo it. “Every — unless- overtone forgive-and-feel-proud mars the reconciliation. mission has earned her the sobriquet Pad neering. At first, when it camethe to pad testing with non-woven his fabric half,and sanitiz in- whichby bursts the of “Sharam!” (shame) from the oneBalki thought andnarrative. team I had have gone a Ifplanmad,” it for wants he that. says. toHe reachBachchan other delivers countries the applause-inducing Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might

in countries CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION in countries finally realized that he could turn guinea pig line: CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION “America has Superman, Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get prototypes, “the only availableing thevictim whole with was ultraviolet light.risk And to it women’sfemale actors. Endorsing Bollywood’s finallyMeanwhile, realizedaffected that a he social could by movement periodturn guinea ispoverty, pig now line: the “America song-and- has Superman, Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get prototypes, “the only availablewas allvictim accomplished was using fourSubhrarisk ingenious, to Priyadarshiniwomen’sun apologetic acrosslove lauds affair with athe biopic song and of himself.anassociated inspired Heaffected wore with a thepad, film.by and periodusedMuruganantham a deflated poverty, and the Batman. song-and- India has Pad Man!” international donors and become a national my wife”, Muruganantham saidmakeshift in machinesa 2012 that cost peanuts,health com is- not dance,clearly the demure Gayatri suddenly breaks footballhas mentoredfilleddance with might goat’s a biologist, blood be anda dampener. fitted Maya Over The the film past isdecade, also Muruganantham movement. ■ pared to the giant assembly lines used by Indianinto an exaggerated, sanitary-padglobe.” hip-swaying innovator.number to withVishwakarma, a tube. It took who him camesix years home to isolate to rural has travelled across villages in India — first TED talk. In Pad Man, we seemultinational Lakshmikant companies. delineated, andcelebrate the the puberty of a girl next door. celluloseMadhya currentlyas Pradesh the core from adsorbing an California urban medium. four sensation. years selling Reaching his sanitary pads, its and then setting Subhra Priyadarshini is chief editor of perfecting the scientific steps ofAt pulverizing the cost of being ostracizedstigma for openly associated The rest of the film brings in the usual Thatago roller-coaster to spreadtarget menstrual-hygiene audience journey won in awareness. him India’s a uprural self-sustaining hinterland pad-making units in Nature India. tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedly elements of a potboiler — a love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to 34 36 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018 cellulose fibres, compressingon them, the pad’s sealing design. The biggestwith challenge the subjectrise and of rise menstruation of the protagonist andis signalled Gayatri’s 28 distribute | NATUREmight free | VOL pads be 555 todifficult, | 1tribal MARCH women. 2018 given© Her2018 theMac m iltaboolan Publish e—rs Li munlessited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. the pad with non-woven fabricwas and finding sanitiz volunteers- to testby it. “Everybursts- offorgive-and-feel-proud “Sharam!” (shame) reconciliation. from the missionBalki has earned and her team the sobriquet have a Pad plan for that. one thought I had gone mad,” he says. He Bachchan delivers the applause-inducing Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might ing the whole with ultravioletfinally light. realized And that heit could turnfemale guinea pig actors.line: “America Endorsing has Superman, Bollywood’s Spiderman help her smallMeanwhile, non-profit organization a social to get movement is now was all accomplished using fourhimself. ingenious, He wore a pad, and usedun a deflated apologetic and Batman.love affairIndia has Padwith Man!” song and internationalassociated donors and with become the a national film. Muruganantham football filled with goat’s blood and fitted Over the past decade, Muruganantham movement. ■ makeshift machines that cost withpeanuts, a tube. It com took him- six yearsdance, to isolate the demurehas travelled Gayatri across villages suddenly in India — breaks first has mentored a biologist, Maya pared to the giant assemblycellulose lines used as the core by adsorbinginto medium. an exaggerated, selling his sanitary hip-swaying pads, and thennumber setting to SubhraVishwakarma, Priyadarshini is chief editor who of came home to rural That roller-coaster journey won him a up self-sustaining pad-making units in Nature India. multinational companies. celebrate the puberty of a girl next door. Madhya Pradesh from California four years 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018 At the cost of being ostracized28 | NATURE for openly | VOL 555 | 1 MARCHThe 2018© rest2018 M aofc mil lthean Pub lifilmshers Li m bringsited, part of S pinri ng ether Natu rusuale. All ri ghts reserved. ago to spread menstrual-hygiene awareness. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedly elements of a potboiler — a love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to on the pad’s design. The biggest challenge rise and rise of the protagonist and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her was finding volunteers to test it. “Every- forgive-and-feel-proud reconciliation. mission has earned her the sobriquet Pad one thought I had gone mad,” heAkshay says. Kumar He plays the lead inBachchan Pad Man, a fictionalized delivers biopic ofthe sanitary-pad applause-inducing innovator Arunachalam Muruganantham. Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might finally realized that he could turn guinea pig line: “America has Superman, Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get finally realized that he could turn guineaIndia should pig be seen as aline: country “America of one national has Superman, innovation prize, Spiderman a spot on TIME collaborationhelp her with small women’s non-profit self-help groups organization to get himself. He wore a pad, and usedbillion a deflated minds.” and Batman. Indiamagazine’s has ‘100 Pad most Man!” influential people’ list andinternational cooperatives. He has donors spawned and close tobecome a national football filled with goat’s blood Muruganantham’sand fitted is the inspiringOver story the of pastin 2014,decade, and one Muruganantham of India’s highest civilian 2,500 suchmovement. centres, ■in India and a dozen football filled with goat’s bloodan and unconventional fitted and tenderheartedOver man. the pastawards, decade, the Padma Muruganantham Shri, in 2016. othermovement. developing countries. His pads retail with a tube. It took him six yearsIn the to early isolate 1990s, he was anhas assistant travelled in a acrossPad Manvillages makes in Muruganantham’s India — first at a fraction of the cost of those from multi- cellulose as the core adsorbinghardware medium. workshop. His wife’sselling use of hisrags sanitaryunusual pads,journey relatable,and then although setting it often nationalSubhra brands. Priyadarshini is chief editor of cellulose as the core adsorbingduring medium. menstruation concernedselling him, sohis he sanitarydescends pads, a little and then setting AlthoughSubhra Pad Priyadarshini Man captures the essence is chief editor of That roller-coaster journey wonexperimented him with a materialsup — firstself-sustaining cotton, into preachiness. pad-making “Period units poverty in of grass-rootsNature innovationIndia. and benefits from then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too, with is a health issue true-to-life portrayals by a brilliant set of wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a laboured first affecting women actors, the instructive overtone mars the 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018 affecting women 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCHneering. 2018 At first,©2 when018 itM cameac m itolla testingn Pub lhisis hers Lhalf,i mit ined ,whichpart othef S priinn gcountrieser Nature . All ri ghtsnarrative.reserve dIf. it wants to reach other countries ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. prototypes, “the only available victim was risk to women’s across the affected by period poverty, the song-and- my wife”, Muruganantham said in a 2012 health is not clearly globe.” dance might be a dampener. The film is also TED talk. In Pad Man , we see Lakshmikant delineated, and the currently an urban sensation. Reaching its perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigma associated target audience in India’s rural hinterland cellulose fibres, compressing them, sealing with the subject of menstruation is signalled might be difficult, given the taboo — unless the pad with non-woven fabric and sanitiz- by bursts of “Sharam!” (shame) from the Balki and team have a plan for that. ing the whole with ultraviolet light. And it female actors. Endorsing Bollywood’s Meanwhile, a social movement is now was all accomplished using four ingenious, un apologetic love affair with song and associated with the film. Muruganantham makeshift machines that cost peanuts, com- dance, the demure Gayatri suddenly breaks has mentored a biologist, Maya pared to the giant assembly lines used by into an exaggerated, hip-swaying number to Vishwakarma, who came home to rural multinational companies. celebrate the puberty of a girl next door. Madhya Pradesh from California four years At the cost of being ostracized for openly The rest of the film brings in the usual ago to spread menstrual-hygiene awareness. tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedly elements of a potboiler — a love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to on the pad’s design. The biggest challenge rise and rise of the protagonist and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her was finding volunteers to test it. “Every- forgive-and-feel-proud reconciliation. mission has earned her the sobriquet Pad one thought I had gone mad,” he says. He Bachchan delivers the applause-inducing Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might finally realized that he could turn guinea pig line: “America has Superman, Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get himself. He wore a pad, and used a deflated and Batman. India has Pad Man!” international donors and become a national football filled with goat’s blood and fitted Over the past decade, Muruganantham movement. ■ with a tube. It took him six years to isolate has travelled across villages in India — first cellulose as the core adsorbing medium. selling his sanitary pads, and then setting Subhra Priyadarshini is chief editor of That roller-coaster journey won him a up self-sustaining pad-making units in Nature India.

28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved.

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rugal innovation is a new norm in India, emerging spo- assembly lines used by gapmultinational also inspired companies. the 2017 Hindi film radically in pockets of brilliance — from rural hamlets At the cost of being ostracizedToilet: Ek Prem for openly Katha , tacklingdirected aby hidden Shree to technology labs. It has even spawned a word in Hindi: issue, he worked doggedlyNarayan on theSingh. pad’s Significant design. The challenges biggest Fjugaad. challenge was finding remain,volunteers however. to test it.Untreated “Everyone sewage thought is Thanks to jugaad, bioengineer Manu Prakash is flooding I had gone mad,” he says.choking He finally the mighty realized Yamuna that riverhe could and parts turn COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION rural schools CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION in India with his US$1 ‘foldscope’, an origami-in- guinea pig himself. He woreof the a lake pad, system and used around a deflated Bangalore, football for COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS spired microscope teaching science to tens of thousands of filled with goat’s bloodinstance. and fitted with a tube. It took him six

COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION children. years CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION to isolate cellulose Despiteas the core India’s adsorbing tradition ofmedium. frugality, That the CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION It is also in this spirit that, in 2000, school dropout Aruna- roller-coaster journey risewon of him consumerism a national contributes innovation to prize,these chalam Muruganantham created a do-it-yourself unit in Co- a spot on TIME magazine’sissues. ‘100 The most dark influentialside of the economicpeople’ list imbatore, Tamil Nadu, to manufacture the world’s cheapest in 2014, and one of India’sliberalization highest civilian of 1991 awards, is the generation the Padma of sanitary pads. Now, Muruganantham’s story hits the big screen Shri, in 2016. new waste from mines, factories and indus- in Pad Man, billed as the first feature-length film on menstrual Pad Man makes Muruganantham’strial agriculture. unusualThe gradual journey switch relata from- hygiene. ble, although it often natural,descends biodegradable a little into materialspreachiness. to plastics It fal- ‘Period poverty’ is a health issue affecting women in coun- ters, too, with a labouredis changingfirst half, behaviour in which even the amongrisk to thewomen’s rural tries across the globe. In Britain, 1 in 10 girls and women aged health is not clearly delineated,poor. For and instance, the stigma twigs (associateddaatuun) of with the 14–21 cannot afford sanitary prod- the subject of menstruationmedicinal neem is treesig- COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION ucts, according to London-based “Thenalled mountain by bursts of( Azadirachta“Sharam!” (shame) indica), charity Plan International UK. In “PERIOD POVERTY buildsfrom bythe female onceactors. used Endorsing to brush India, according to a 2015–16 gov- anBollywood’s average unapologeticteeth, have love givenaffair ernment health survey, just 58% of 100,000with song tonnes and dance,way to plasticthe demure tooth- women aged 15–24 can afford to use IS A HEALTH a Gayatriday.” suddenly breaksbrushes. into The an latterexag- a hygienic method of menstrual pro- gerated, hip-swayingare anumber recycling to night cele- tection: 78% in urban areas and 48% mare:brate separating the puberty bristles of a from girl thenext handle door. is in rural ones. And the average varies ISSUE AFFECTING labour-intensiveThe rest of and the unrewarding. film brings in the wildly between states — from 91% in usualDoron elements and Jeffrey of a alsopotboiler discuss — India’s a love Tamil Nadu to just 31% in Bihar. The wasteangle, market. the rise The and world’s rise largestof the ‘ship- pro- rest resort to rags, leaves and even WOMEN IN breaking’tagonist industry and Gayatri’s is in Alang. forgive-and- Here, retired ash. This can result in serious health shipsfeel-proud are imported reconciliation. and dismantled, Bachchan and risks, such as toxic shock syndrome, theirdelivers parts andthe materialsapplause-inducing — primarily line:steel — are sold for profit. India is also a leading Akshay Kumar plays the lead in Pad Man, a fictionalized biopic of sanitary-padAkshayAkshayand Kumar Kumarinnovator lead plays plays to Arunachalam theabsence the lead lead in in Padfrom PadMuruganantham. Man Man school, ,a a fictionalized fictionalized or biopic biopic of of sanitary-pad sanitary-padCOUNTRIES innovator innovator Arunachalam Arunachalam Muruganantham. Muruganantham.“America has Superman, Spiderman work. exporterand Batman. of hair, India a market has Pad worth Man almost!” US$400 million. Many Hindus have their IndiaPad should Man be attempts seen as a tocountry open ofup one this national innovation prize, a spot on TIME collaborationOver with the women’s past decade, self-help Muruganan groups - India should be seen as a country of one national innovationIndia prize, should a spotbe seen on asTIME a country collaborationof one national with women’s innovation self-help prize, groups a spot on TIME collaborationhair cut in with temples women’s to demonstrate self-help groups devotion, billiontaboo minds.” topic for much-needed discus- magazine’s ‘100 most influential people’ list and cooperatives.tham has travelled He has spawned across closevillages to in billion minds.” magazine’s ‘100billion most minds.” influential people’ list and cooperatives.magazine’s He hasACROSS ‘100 spawned most influential close to people’THE list and cooperatives.and much of theHe wastehas spawned hair is sent close to to China Muruganantham’ssion through isnarrative the inspiring sparked story ofby in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian 2,500 suchIndia centres,— first inselling India hisand sanitary a dozen pads, Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014, and oneMuruganantham’s of India’s highest is civilianthe inspiring story2,500 such of centres,in 2014, in and India one andof India’s a dozen highest civilian 2,500 suchto be made centres, into wigs.in India and a dozen an unconventionalmelodrama and and tenderheartedmusic. Like man.Shree awards, the Padma Shri, in 2016. other developingand then countries.setting up His self-sustaining pads retail an unconventional and tenderhearted man. awards, the Padmaan unconventional Shri, in 2016. and tenderheartedother man. developing awards, countries. the Padma His Shri,pads inretail 2016. other developingDoron and countries. Jeffrey His analyse pads retail the iso- In theNarayan early 1990s, Singh’s he was 2017 an assistant filmToilet: in a Pad Man makes Muruganantham’s at a fractionpad-making of the cost units of those in fromcollaboration multi- In the early 1990s, he was an assistant in a Pad ManIn makes the early Muruganantham’s 1990s, he was an assistant at ain fraction a of thePad cost Man of those makesGLOBE.” from Muruganantham’s multi- at a fractionlated, small-scale of the cost ofattempts those from of large multi Indian- hardwareEk Prem workshop. Katha ,His centred wife’s usearound of rags the unusual journey relatable, although it often nationalwith brands. women’s self-help groups and hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusual journeyhardware relatable, workshop. although His it often wife’s use ofnational rags brands.unusual journey relatable, although it often nationalcompanies brands. such as ITC and the Ramky duringproblem menstruation of open concerned defecation, him, soit hehas descends a little Althoughcooperatives. Pad Man He captures has spawned the essence close during menstruation concerned him, so he descends a duringlittlelabour-intensive menstruation concerned nature of him, the sosectorAlthough he — Paddescends Man captures a little the essencein the brass-working AlthoughGroup toPad recycle Man captures waste profitably the essence as well experimentedcaptured thewith imagination materials — first of a cotton, nation grapplinginto preachiness. with a massive to 2,500 such centres,of grass-roots in India andinnovation a dozen and other benefits developing from experimented with materials — first cotton, into preachiness.experimentedmeans “Period that with un materialspoverty organized — waste-pickers first cotton,of grass-roots do into innovation preachiness. and benefits “Period“Period fromcentre poverty poverty Moradabad of grass-rootsas hygienically, innovation through and benefits state-of-the-art from Akshay Kumar plays theAkshay lead in Pad Kumar Man, a fictionalized plays the biopic lead of sanitary-pad in PadAkshay Man Kumarinnovator, a plays fictionalized Arunachalam the lead in PadMuruganantham. biopicMan, a fictionalized of sanitary-pad biopic of sanitary-pad innovator innovator Arunachalam Arunachalam Muruganantham. Muruganantham.thenburden cellulose of fibrewomen’s — to health make aissues. pad that It falters, too, with countries. His padstrue-to-life retail at a fraction portrayals of theby a cost brilliant of those set of from Akshay Kumar plays the lead in Pad Man, a fictionalized biopic of sanitary-pad innovator Arunachalam Muruganantham.then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too,then with mostcellulose is of a the health fibre dirty — work. issue to make Their a job padtrue-to-life is thatto collect portrayalsIt falters, too, by awith brilliant isis aset a whohealth health of extract issue issue metals true-to-lifecontainment, portrayals neutralization by a brilliant and set disposal of wouldn’tDirected leak, in bya process R. Balki, of reverse Pad Man engi has- a starrya laboured cast. Murugan first - multinational brands.actors, the instructive overtone mars the wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a labouredwouldn’t firstand affectingleak,segregate in a process household, women of reverse commercialactors, engi- theand instructivea laboured overtone first marsaffectingaffectingfrom the electronic women women waste. actors,technologies. the instructive For overtoneinstance, marsRamky’s the first India should be seen as a country of one national innovation prize, a spot on TIME neering.collaborationantham At first, (renamed withwhen women’s it Lakshmikant)came self-helpto testing groups hisis played half, by renowned in which the Bolly - Although Pad Mannarrative. captures If it wantsthe essence to reach ofother grass-roots countries in- India should be seen as a country of one national innovation prize, a spot on TIME neering.collaboration At first, withwhen women’s it came self-helpto testing groups his half, in whichneering. theindustrial Atin first, countries waste when forit came processing to testingnarrative. in his centres If ithalf, wants in to which reach otherthe countriesinin countries countriesThe illegal operation narrative.project If it inwants 2000 to reachwas managing other countries medical billion minds.” magazine’s ‘100 most influential people’ list prototypes,andwood cooperatives. action-hero-turned-character-actor “the only He available has spawned victim close was to risk Akshay to women’s Kumar; the novation and benefitsaffected from by true-to-life period poverty, portrayals the song-and- by a brilliant India should be seen as a countrybillion minds.” of one Indianational should be innovation seenmagazine’s as a ‘100 countryprize, most influential a spotof one people’on TIME list nationalprototypes, and cooperatives.collaboration innovation “the only He available has spawned prize, with victim women’sclose awas spot to onrisk self-help TIME to women’sprototypes, groupswhere acrosscollaboration it“the is sorted only the availablefor composting, with victimaffected women’s recyclingwas by periodrisk self-help to poverty, women’s thegroups song-and-acrossacrosssuffuses the the their lungs affectedwastes by forperiod disposal poverty, at government-approved the song-and- Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian my2,500 such wife”,powerful Muruganantham centres,theatre actorin India said Radhika and in a a2012 dozen Apte playshealth his is wife,not clearly Shanthi set of actors, the instructivedance might overtone be a dampener. mars the The narrative. film is also If it Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian my2,500 such wife”, Muruganantham centres, in India said and in a a2012 dozen health is not clearlymy wife”,or energy Muruganantham generation. However, said in adance the2012 reality might healthbe a dampener. is not clearly The filmglobe.” is withalso metallic dust dancecentres. might be By a 2016,dampener. the country The film had is also just 198 ANUWAR HAZARIKA/REUTERS ANUWAR globe.” globe.” billion minds.” billion minds.”magazine’s ‘100 mostan influential unconventional people’ and tenderhearted listmagazine’s man.and ‘100 awards,cooperatives. most the Padma influential Shri, He in has 2016. people’ spawned list TED closeother(called talk. developingtoand In Gayatri).Pad cooperatives. Man countries. , Therewe see Lakshmikantis His even pads He a retailjingoistic has spawneddelineated, cameo from and close the super -to wants to reach othercurrently countries an urbanaffected sensation. by period Reaching poverty, its the an unconventional and tenderhearted man. awards, the Padma Shri, in 2016. TEDother talk. developing In Pad Man countries., we see Lakshmikant His pads retail delineated, andTED the rarelytalk. In reflects Pad Man this, weorderly see Lakshmikant progression.currently an delineated,urban sensation. and the Reaching and its chemical fumes, currentlyapproved an urban disposal sensation. centres Reaching for more its than Muruganantham’s is the inspiringIn the early story 1990s, of he wasMuruganantham’s an assistantin 2014, in a and isonePad the Manof inspiring India’s Inmakes the early Muruganantham’shighest story 1990s, of he civilian was an assistantinperfecting 2014,at a infraction a2,500 such theand scientific of theonePad cost stepsManof of centres,thoseIndia’s ofmakes pulverizing from Muruganantham’s highestmulti in -Indiastigma civilian and associated perfectingaperfecting dozenatstar a fraction Amitabh 2,500 suchthe the scientific scientific of the Bachchan, cost steps steps of centres, thoseof of who,pulverizing pulverizing fromtarget playing multi in audience -himself,Indiastigmastigma in declaims:India’sand associated associated rurala dozen“India hinterland song-anddance mighttargettarget be audience audiencea dampener. in in India’s India’s The rural ruralfilm hinterland ishinterland also currently BOLLYWOOD TAKESshouldNon-compliance not be seen is rife:as a waste country is often of notone billion people. India andan chokes urban the sensation. nearby Reaching169,000 its hospitals target audience and clinics. in India’s rural BOLLYWOODhardware workshop. His wife’s TAKES use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often cellulosenational fibres, brands. compressing them, sealing with the subject of menstruation is signalled might be difficult, given the taboo — unless hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often cellulosenational fibres, brands. compressing them, sealing with the subjectcellulose of sortedmenstruation fibres, at source. compressing is signalled Ultimately, them, around sealingmight 90% be difficult,of with the given subject the taboo of menstruation — unlessrivers is with signalled mercury might beThe difficult, authors given rightly the calltaboo for — a sustainableunless an unconventional and tenderhearted man.an unconventionalawards, the and Padma tenderhearted Shri,during in menstruation 2016. man. concernedawards, him, so he other the Padmadescends developing Shri,a little in countries. 2016. His padsthe padshouldretailAlthough withother be non-woven seenPad developing Man as a fabriccapturescountry and theof sanitiz countries. one essence billion- byminds.” burstsHisWaste pads of of “aSharam Nation: retail !” (shame) hinterland from the might beBalki difficult, and team given have athe plan taboo for that. — unless Balki during menstruation concerned him, so he descends a littleCOMMENT BOOKS & ARTSthe padAlthough with non-woven Pad Man fabriccaptures and the sanitiz essence- by bursts of the“Sharam padunsorted with!” (shame) non-woven waste is from thrown fabric the into and dumps. sanitizBalki Mean -and team- by havebursts a plan of “ Sharamfor that.!” (shame)and arsenic. from Inthe these Balkisystem. and team To have be a practical,plan for that. this must be experimentedCOMMENT withBOOKS materials & —ARTS first cotton, into preachiness.experimented with materials — firsting ofcotton, the grass-roots whole withinto innovation ultraviolet preachiness. and light. benefits And“Period from it povertyfemale actors. inging ofthe Endorsingthe grass-roots Muruganantham’swhole whole with with Bollywood’s innovation ultraviolet ultraviolet is and light. thelight. benefits inspiringAnd AndMeanwhile, fromit it storyfemalefemale a socialofGarbage an actors.actors. movementunconven and EndorsingEndorsing - is now and Bollywood’sBollywood’s team have a planMeanwhile, Meanwhile,for that. a a social social movement movement is is now now In the early 1990s, he was an assistant in Ina the earlyPad 1990s, Man he makes was an assistantMuruganantham’s“Period in poverty a Pad Manat a fraction makes of Muruganantham’sthe cost of those from multiwhile,at the- a millions fraction of scavengers of the and cost cleaners of thoseGrowth from in India multi-lands of waste, humans motivated by profit, discipline, need, pride then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too,then with cellulose fibre — to make awas padtrue-to-life all that accomplished portrayalsIt falters, using too,by four a with brilliant ingenious, set of un apologeticwaswas lovetrue-to-life all tionalall accomplished affairaccomplished and with portrayals tenderhearted song using using and by four four a brilliant ingenious, ingenious,man.associated In set the of earlywithunun apologeticthe apologetic1990s, film. heMuruganantham lovelovewas affairanaffair withwith Meanwhile, songsong andand a socialassociatedassociated movement with with the the is film. film.now Muruganantham Murugananthamassociated with the is a health issue is a health issue are not part of any organized waste-manage- ASSA DORON & ROBIN end up being treated as or better still, a combination of these. hardware workshop. His wife’s use of ragshardware unusual workshop. journey His relatable, wife’swouldn’t use although leak, of inrags a process it often of reverseunusualmakeshift engi-national machinesjourneya laboured that brands.relatable, cost peanuts, first comalthough- dance, it often the demuremakeshiftmakeshift actors,assistant Gayatri machinesnational machinesthe suddenly ininstructive a hardwarethat that brands.breaks cost cost overtone peanuts, peanuts, workshop.has mars com com -mentored -theHis wife’sdance,dance, use thea the biologist, ofdemure demure rags durGayatri Gayatri -Maya suddenly suddenlyfilm. breaks breaksMuruganantham hashas mentoredmentoredhas mentored aa biologist,abiologist, biologist, MayaMaya Vish- wouldn’t leak, in a processON of reverse engi- MENSTRUALa laboured first affecting womenON actors, theMENSTRUAL instructive overtone marsaffecting the women ment system, and lack health, safety and legal JEFFREY waste. In 2013, China signed up to a ‘circular pareding to menstruation the giant assembly concerned lines used him, by so heinto experimented an exaggerated, with hip-swaying wakarma, number who to cameVishwakarma, home to rural who Madhya came Pradeshhome to from rural Cal - during menstruation concernedneering. him, At first, so when heduring it came menstruationtodescends testing his ahalf, littleconcerned in which neering. the him, inAt countriesfirst, so when he it came todescends testingparednarrative. tohis the If Althoughgiant ita half,wants little assembly in to which reach Padlines other the usedMan countriesin by countries captures into an exaggerated, thepared essencenarrative.cover. to hip-swaying the They giantIfAlthough it wants face assembly number harrowingto reach to linesPad other occupationalused ManVishwakarma, countries by captures into who anHarvard exaggerated, camethe University essencehome hip-swaying to rural Sewage, number as Waste to of Vishwakarma,economy’ modelwho came devoted home to torecycling rural as multinationalmaterials companies.— first cotton, then cellulose fibrecelebrate — theto pubertymake a ofpad a girlifornia next door. four years agoMadhya to spread Pradesh menstrual-hygiene from California four awareness. years prototypes, “the only available victim was risk to women’sprototypes, across “the onlythe available victimmultinationalaffected was by companies.periodrisk topoverty, women’s the song-and- across thecelebrate the multinationalpubertyaffectedhazards. of a bygirl Urbancompanies. period next dumps door. poverty, in mega the citiessong-and-Madhya such Pradesh as celebrate fromPress: the California 2018. puberty four of a yearsgirla Nation next door. underlines, Madhyamuch Pradesh as possible. from California This is one four approach years to experimented with materials — first cotton,experimented into preachiness. with materials — first cotton, into preachiness.of grass-roots innovation and benefitsAt thatfrom the costwouldn’tof ofgrass-roots being leak, ostracized in a process innovation for openly of reverse and engineering.The benefits rest of theAt fromfirst,film brings Vishwakarma in the usual has nowago toreceived spread menstrual-hygiene backing to distribute awareness. free pads my wife”, Muruganantham said in a 2012 health is not clearlymy“Period wife”, Muruganantham poverty said inAt dancea 2012the costmight of bebeinghealth a dampener. ostracized is not clearly The“Period for film openlyglobe.” is also povertyThe rest of theAtdance theMumbai,film cost might brings of Delhi beingbe in a dampener. theand ostracized usual Kolkata The for can filmopenlyago be cloggedtois alsospread menstrual-hygieneThe rest of the film awareness. bringsis a inprime the usual concern ago tosustainability. spread menstrual-hygiene But India has, awareness. as Waste of a globe.” tacklingwhen a hidden it came issue, to testing he worked his doggedlyprototypes, “theelements only available of a potboiler vic- — a tolove tribal angle, women. the HerVishwakarma mission has has earned now receivedher the sobriquetbacking to Pad then cellulose fibre — to makeTED talk.a pad In Pad that Manthen , we see cellulose LakshmikantIt falters, fibre too,delineated, — with to make andTED the talk. a pad In Pad that Man , we see LakshmikantIttackling falters,currently a true-to-lifehidden too,an urbandelineated, issue, with sensation. he worked andportrayals the Reaching doggedly its by elementsa brilliant of atackling potboilercurrently setwith a ofhiddenexcrement,true-to-life — an a love urban issue, angle, rotten sensation.he worked the food,portrayals anddoggedlyReachingVishwakarma liquid itsand by elements ahas brilliantin now a countryof received a potboiler setwhere backing of — more a tolove than angle, 560 the million VishwakarmaNation emphasizes, has now received other backingstrengths to that perfectingis a health the scientific issue steps of pulverizing stigmaSTIGMA associatedis a health issue on targetthetim pad’s was audience design.my wife”, in The India’s Muruganantham biggest rural challenge hinterland said inrise a 2012 and rise TED of thetalk. protagonist In Woman. and Gayatri’s The buzzdistribute created byfree Pad pads Man to tribalmight women. help her Her small perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigmaSTIGMA associated on targetthe pad’s audience design. in The India’s biggest rural challenge hinterland rise and rise ofon the the protagonist pad’s design. and The Gayatri’s biggest challengedistribute freerise pads and torise tribal of the women. protagonist Her and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her solid household wastes that can promote people defecate in the open. In 2014, the could unite municipalities and individu- wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a laboured first wasPad finding Manactors, volunteers, we see the Lakshmikant to instructivetest it. “Every perfecting- overtone forgive-and-feel-proudthe scientific mars steps the of reconciliation.non-profit organization mission to hasget internationalearned her the donors sobriquet and Padbecome wouldn’t leak, in a process ofcellulose reverse fibres, engi compressing- them,a laboured sealing with first the subject celluloseaffecting of menstruation fibres, compressing is women signalled them, was mightsealing finding beactors, difficult, volunteerswith giventhe subjectto the instructivetest tabooaffecting ofit. menstruation“Every — unless- overtone is womenforgive-and-feel-proud signalled marswas might findinginfectious the be difficult, volunteers reconciliation. diseases given and to thetest attract taboo it. “Everyflies,mission — unlessrats- and has forgive-and-feel-proudearnedgovernment her the sobriquet of Prime Padreconciliation. Minister Narendra missionals. Onehas earned is its 40,000 her the civic sobriquet organizations Pad and one pulverizingthought I had cellulose gone mad,” fibres, he says.compressing He Bachchanthem, sealing delivers the thepad applause-inducinga national movement.■ Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might neering. At first, when it camethe to pad testing with non-woven hisneering. fabric half,and At sanitiz first, in- which whenby bursts itthe came of “theSharam to pad testing with!” (shame) non-woven his from fabric the half,andone sanitizBalki thought in and- narrative.which team I hadby have gonebursts the a Ifplanmad,” of it “ for Sharamwants he that. says.!” toHe (shame) reachBachchan from other the delivers countriesoneBalki thoughtother the and narrative. applause-inducingvectors. Iteam had have goneDumps a mad,”Ifplan canit for wants hecatch that. says.Woman. fire; Heto burn reach The- Bachchanbuzz other Modicreated deliversset countriesby out Pad to Manthe tackle applause-inducing might the problem with the Woman.action The groups buzz created that could by Pad catalyse Man might coalitions in countries CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION finallywith realized non-woven that he could fabric turn and guinea sanitizing pig theline: whole “America with ultravi has Superman,- Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get ing the whole with ultraviolet light. And it female actors.ingin Endorsingthe countries whole with Bollywood’s ultraviolet light.finally AndMeanwhile, realized it thatfemale a he social could actors. movement turn guineaEndorsing is pig now Bollywood’s line: “America finally hasingMeanwhile, realizedSuperman, tyres, forthat instance, Spidermanahe social could movement emitturn volatileguineahelp ispig organic her now small line: non-profit Swachh“America organization Bharat has Superman, (‘clean to get India’) Spiderman campaign, help herbetween small non-profit kabaadiwalas organization, professionals, to get prototypes, “the only available victim wasprototypes, risk “the to women’sonly available was allvictim accomplished was using fourrisk ingenious, toaffected women’sun apologetic by period love affair poverty, with song the and song-and- himself.associatedolet Helight.affected wore with And a thepad, it film. by wasand period usedMurugananthamall accomplished a deflated poverty, usingand the Batman. four song-and- ingenious, India has Pad Man!”Subhra Priyadarshiniinternational is chief editor donors of and Nature become India. a national was all accomplished using fourSubhra ingenious, Priyadarshiniun apologetic acrosslove lauds affair with athe biopic song and of Subhra himself.anassociated inspired He Priyadarshini wore with a thepad, film. and usedMurugananthamacross alauds deflated athe biopicand Batman. of himself.India ancompounds hasinspired He Pad wore Man!” aand pad, particulate and used amatter. deflatedinternational Doron and donors Batman.pledging and become India to build has a national Pad120 Man!”million toilets across internationalscientists, donors engineers, and become ethical businesses a national and, makeshift machines that cost peanuts, com- dance, the demure Gayatri suddenly breaks footballhasmakeshift mentoredfilled with machines goat’s a biologist, blood that andcost fitted peanuts,Maya ■comparedOver the to past the decade, giant Muruganantham movement.■ ■ my wife”, Muruganantham saidmakeshift in machinesa 2012my that costwife”, peanuts,health Muruganantham com is- not dance,clearly the demure said Gayatri in a suddenly2012 breaks healthfootballhas is mentoredfilleddance not with clearly might goat’s a biologist, blood be anda dampener. fitted Maya Over The the film pastfootball isdecade,and also filled Jeffreydance Muruganantham with cite goat’smight a suspected blood be and a outbreakdampener.movement. fitted of Over Therural the filmIndia past by decade,is 2 October also Muruganantham 2019 — the 150th movement.importantly, politicians. ■ pared to the giant assembly lines used by Indianinto an exaggerated, sanitary-padparedglobe.” hip-swayingto the giant innovator.numberassembly to lines with usedVishwakarma, a tube. by ItIndian tookinto who him an exaggerated, camesixsanitary-pad years homeglobe.” to hip-swayingisolate to rural innovator.numberhas travelled to withacrosswithVishwakarma, a a tube. villagestube. It It tookintook India whohim him — six camesix first years years home to to isolate isolate to rural hashas travelled travelled across across villages villages in in India India — — first first TED talk. In Pad Man, we see Lakshmikant delineated, and the buboniccurrently plague in Surat an in urban 1994 as an sensation. exam- anniversary Reaching of Mahatma its Gandhi’s birth. TED talk. In Pad Man, we seemultinational Lakshmikant companies. delineated, andcelebrate the the pubertymultinational of a girl companies. next door. celluloseMadhya currentlyas Pradesh thecelebrate core from adsorbing an Californiathe pubertyurban medium. four of sensation.a years girl next selling door. 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All ri ghts reserved. was finding volunteers to test it. “Every- forgive-and-feel-proudwas finding volunteersreconciliation. to test it. “Everymission- has earnedforgive-and-feel-proud her the sobriquet Pad reconciliation. mission has earned her the sobriquet Pad the pad with non-woven fabric and sanitizthe- pad bywith bursts non-woven of “Sharam fabric!” and (shame) sanitiz from- theby burstsBalki of “ andSharam team!” have (shame) a plan from for that. the Balki and team have a plan for that. one thought I had gone mad,” he says. He Bachchan delivers one thought the applause-inducing I had gone mad,” he says.Woman. He The buzzBachchan created delivers by Pad Man the applause-inducingmight Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might ing the whole with ultravioletfinally light. realized And that ingheit could the turn wholefemale guinea pig with actors. ultravioletline: “America Endorsingfinally has light. 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Muruganantham football filled with goat’s blood and fitted Over the pastfootball decade, filled Muruganantham with goat’s blood andmovement. fitted ■ Over the past decade, Muruganantham movement. ■ makeshift machines that cost withpeanuts, a tube. It com tookmakeshift him- six yearsdance, to machines isolate the demure hasthat travelled cost Gayatri acrosswithpeanuts, a villagestube. suddenly It com intook India him- — breaks six first years dance, to isolate thehas demurehas mentored travelled Gayatri across villages suddenlya inbiologist, India — breaks first Mayahas mentored a biologist, Maya pared to the giant assemblycellulose lines used as the core bypared adsorbing tointo themedium. an giant exaggerated, assemblyselling his sanitary hip-swayingcellulose lines pads, used as andthe core thennumberby adsorbingsetting tointo medium.Subhra an exaggerated,Vishwakarma, Priyadarshiniselling his is sanitary chiefhip-swaying editor who pads, of andcame thennumber homesetting to to Subhra ruralVishwakarma, Priyadarshini is chief editor who of came home to rural That roller-coaster journey won him a up self-sustainingThat roller-coaster pad-making unitsjourney in wonNature him a India.up self-sustaining pad-making units in Nature India. multinational companies. multinationalcelebrate companies. the puberty of a girl next door. celebrateMadhya the puberty Pradesh of a fromgirl next California door. four yearsMadhya Pradesh from California four years 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018 At the cost of being ostracized28 | NATURE for openly | VOL 555 At | 1 the MARCH costThe 2018 of© rest2 0being18 M aofc mi llostracizedthean Pub lifilmshers Li m bringsite ford, part openlyof S pinri ng ether N atu rusuale. All ri ghts rTheeserved© . rest2ago018 M a oftoc mil lspreadthean Pub lifilmsher smenstrual-hygieneLi m bringsited, part of S pinri ng ether Natu rusuale. All rawareness.i ghts reserved. ago to spread menstrual-hygiene©2018 Mac milla nawareness.Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved©. 2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedlytackling elements a hidden issue,of a potboiler he worked — doggedly a love angle, theelements Vishwakarma of a potboiler has — nowa love received angle, the backing toVishwakarma has now received backing to on the pad’s design. The biggest challengeon the pad’srise and design. rise of The the biggest protagonist challenge and Gayatri’s rise and distributerise of the protagonistfree pads to and tribal Gayatri’s women. Herdistribute free pads to tribal women. Her was finding volunteers to test it. “Everywas- findingforgive-and-feel-proud volunteers to test it. reconciliation.“Every- forgive-and-feel-proud mission has earned reconciliation. her the sobriquet Padmission has earned her the sobriquet Pad one thought I had gone mad,” heAkshay says. Kumar He playsone the thoughtlead inBachchan Pad Man I, ahad fictionalized delivers gone biopic mad,” ofthe sanitary-pad applause-inducingheAkshay says. Kumarinnovator He plays Arunachalam the lead inBachchan PadMuruganantham. Man, a fictionalizedWoman. delivers biopic The ofthe sanitary-padbuzz applause-inducing created innovator by Arunachalam Pad Man Muruganantham. mightWoman. The buzz created by Pad Man might finally realized that he could turn guinea pig line: “America has Superman, Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get finally realized that he could turn guineaIndia should pig be seen as aline: country “America of one national has Superman, innovationIndia prize, should Spiderman a spot be seen on TIME as a country collaboration of helpone her nationalwith small women’s innovation non-profit self-help prize, groups aorganization spot on TIME tocollaboration get with women’s self-help groups himself. He wore a pad, and usedbillion a deflated minds.” himself. and He woreBatman. a pad, Indiamagazine’s and has used ‘100 Padbillion mosta Man!”deflated minds.” influential people’ listand Batman.andinternational cooperatives. Indiamagazine’s He has has donors ‘100 Padspawned most Man!” and influentialclose tobecome people’ lista national andinternational cooperatives. He has donors spawned and close tobecome a national Muruganantham’sfootball is the inspiring filled story with of goat’sin 2014, blood and one Muruganantham’sand of India’s fitted highest is civilian the inspiring Over story2,500 such the of past centres,in 2014,decade, ■in and India one Muruganantham and of India’s a dozen highest civilian 2,500 suchmovement. centres, ■in India and a dozen football filled with goat’s bloodan and unconventional fitted and tenderheartedOver man. the pastawards, decade, the Padmaan Murugananthamunconventional Shri, in 2016. and tenderhearted other man.movement. developing awards, countries. the Padma His padsShri, retailin 2016. other developing countries. His pads retail with a tube. It took him six yearsIn the to early isolate 1990s,with he wasa tube. anhas assistant travelled It took in a him across Padsix Manvillagesyears Inmakes the to inearly isolate Muruganantham’s India 1990s, —he was first anhas assistant travelledat a infraction a across of thePad cost Manvillages of those makes from in Muruganantham’s multiIndia- — first at a fraction of the cost of those from multi- hardware workshop.cellulose His wife’s as use the of rags core adsorbingunusual journeyhardware medium.relatable, workshop. although His it often wife’sselling use nationalof hisrags sanitary brands.unusual pads,journey relatable,and then although setting it often nationalSubhra brands. Priyadarshini is chief editor of cellulose as the core adsorbingduring medium. menstruation concernedselling him, sohis he sanitarydescends pads, a duringlittle and menstruation then setting concerned him, soAlthoughSubhra he Paddescends Priyadarshini Man captures a little the essence is chief editor of Although Pad Man captures the essence That roller-coaster journey wonexperimented him with Thata materials roller-coasterup — firstself-sustaining cotton, journeyinto preachiness. pad-making wonexperimented him“Period with aunits poverty materials inup — firstself-sustaining ofcotton, grass-rootsNature into innovationIndia preachiness. pad-making. and benefits “Period from units poverty in of grass-rootsNature innovationIndia. and benefits from then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too,then with cellulose is a health fibre — issue to make a padtrue-to-life that portrayalsIt falters, too,by a with brilliant is set a health of issue true-to-life portrayals by a brilliant set of wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a laboured wouldn’tfirst leak, in a process of reverseactors, engi- the instructivea laboured overtone first marsaffecting the women actors, the instructive overtone mars the 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018affecting women 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCHneering. 2018 At first,©2 when018 itM cameac m itolla testingn Pub lhisis hers Lhalf,i mit ined ,whichparneering.t othef S pr iinAtn gcountriesfirst,e©r N2 whena0t1u8r eitM . cameaAcll mri itolglha testingtnsnarrative.Pruesb lhiseirsv hee dIfr.s itL half,wantsi mit ine tod ,which reachpart other othef S p countriesriinn gcountrieser N ature . All ri ghtsnarrative.reserve dIf. it wants to reach other countries ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nge©r N2a0t1u8reM. aAcll mriilglhatnsPruesbleirsvheedr.s Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. prototypes, “the only available victim was risk to women’sprototypes, across “the onlythe available victimaffected was by periodrisk topoverty, women’s the song-and- across the affected by period poverty, the song-and- my wife”, Muruganantham said in a 2012 health is not clearlymy wife”, globe.” Muruganantham said in dancea 2012 might behealth a dampener. is not clearly The filmglobe.” is also dance might be a dampener. The film is also TED talk. In Pad Man , we see Lakshmikant delineated, and TED the talk. In Pad Man , we see Lakshmikant currently an urbandelineated, sensation. and the Reaching its currently an urban sensation. Reaching its perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigma associatedperfecting the scientific steps of pulverizingtarget audience stigma in India’s associated rural hinterland target audience in India’s rural hinterland cellulose fibres, compressing them, sealing with the subjectcellulose of menstruation fibres, compressing is signalled them, mightsealing be difficult,with giventhe subject the taboo of menstruation — unless is signalled might be difficult, given the taboo — unless the pad with non-woven fabric and sanitiz- by bursts of “theSharam pad with!” (shame) non-woven from fabric the and sanitizBalki and- teamby have bursts a plan of “ forSharam that. !” (shame) from the Balki and team have a plan for that. ing the whole with ultraviolet light. And it female actors.ing Endorsingthe whole with Bollywood’s ultraviolet light. AndMeanwhile, it female a social actors. movement Endorsing is now Bollywood’s Meanwhile, a social movement is now was all accomplished using four ingenious, un apologeticwas love all affairaccomplished with song using and four ingenious,associated withun the apologetic film. Muruganantham love affair with song and associated with the film. Muruganantham makeshift machines that cost peanuts, com- dance, the demuremakeshift Gayatri machines suddenly that breaks cost peanuts, has com mentored- dance, a the biologist, demure Gayatri Maya suddenly breaks has mentored a biologist, Maya pared to the giant assembly lines used by into an exaggerated,pared hip-swayingto the giant numberassembly to lines usedVishwakarma, by into who an exaggerated, came home hip-swaying to rural number to Vishwakarma, who came home to rural multinational companies. celebrate the pubertymultinational of a girl companies. next door. Madhya Pradeshcelebrate from Californiathe puberty four of a years girl next door. Madhya Pradesh from California four years At the cost of being ostracized for openly The rest of theAt filmthe cost brings of being in the ostracized usual for agoopenly to spread menstrual-hygieneThe rest of the film awareness. brings in the usual ago to spread menstrual-hygiene awareness. tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedly elements of a tacklingpotboiler a hidden — a love issue, angle, he workedthe doggedlyVishwakarma elements has now ofreceived a potboiler backing — a to love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to on the pad’s design. The biggest challenge rise and rise ofon the the protagonist pad’s design. and TheGayatri’s biggest challengedistribute freerise pads and to rise tribal of the women. protagonist Her and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her was finding volunteers to test it. “Every- forgive-and-feel-proudwas finding volunteersreconciliation. to test it. “Everymission- has earnedforgive-and-feel-proud her the sobriquet Pad reconciliation. mission has earned her the sobriquet Pad one thought I had gone mad,” he says. He Bachchan deliversone thought the applause-inducing I had gone mad,” he says.Woman. He The buzzBachchan created delivers by Pad Man the applause-inducingmight Woman. The buzz created by Pad Man might finally realized that he could turn guinea pig line: “Americafinally has Superman, realized that Spiderman he could turn guineahelp pig her smallline: non-profit “America organization has Superman, to get Spiderman help her small non-profit organization to get himself. He wore a pad, and used a deflated and Batman. Indiahimself. has He Pad wore Man!” a pad, and used a deflatedinternational donorsand Batman. and become India has a national Pad Man!” international donors and become a national football filled with goat’s blood and fitted Over the pastfootball decade, filled Muruganantham with goat’s blood andmovement. fitted ■ Over the past decade, Muruganantham movement. ■ with a tube. It took him six years to isolate has travelled acrosswith a villagestube. It intook India him — six first years to isolate has travelled across villages in India — first cellulose as the core adsorbing medium. selling his sanitarycellulose pads, as andthe corethen adsorbingsetting medium.Subhra Priyadarshiniselling his is sanitary chief editor pads, of and then setting Subhra Priyadarshini is chief editor of That roller-coaster journey won him a up self-sustainingThat roller-coaster pad-making unitsjourney in wonNature him a India.up self-sustaining pad-making units in Nature India.

28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018 28 | NATURE | VOL 555 | 1 MARCH 2018©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved©. 2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved©. 2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved.

BOOKS & ARTS COMMENT

gap also inspired the 2017 Hindi film Toilet: Ek Prem Katha, directed by Shree Narayan Singh. Significant challenges remain, however. Untreated sewage is choking the mighty Yamuna river and parts of the lake system around Bangalore, for instance. Despite India’s tradition of frugality, the rise of consumerism contributes to these issues. The dark side of the economic liberalization of 1991 is the generation of new waste from mines, factories and indus- trial agriculture. The gradual switch from natural, biodegradable materials to plastics is changing behaviour even among the rural poor. For instance, twigs (daatuun) of the medicinal neem tree “The mountain (Azadirachta indica), builds by once used to brush an average teeth, have given 100,000 tonnes way to plastic tooth- a day.” brushes. The latter are a recycling night- mare: separating bristles from the handle is labour-intensive and unrewarding. Doron and Jeffrey also discuss India’s waste market. The world’s largest ‘ship- COMMENT BOOKS & ARTSbreaking’ industry is in Alang.People Here, collect retired recyclable COMMENT COMMENTGRAND CHALLENGESBOOKS & ARTSREPRINT ships are imported andmaterial dismantled, at a dump and in their parts and materialsGuwhati, — primarily India. steel modern Europeans and to —those are thatsold for profit. India is also a leading INNOVATION led toof modern Prime MinisterNative Americans. Narendraexporter ModiThe of sethair, out a market worth almost team namedto tackle these the people problem Ancient US$400with North the million. Swachh Many Hindus have their Eurasians.Bharat (‘clean India’) campaign,hair cut in pledgingtemples to demonstrate devotion, Waste mountain No tophysical build proof 120 ofmillion this ghost toiletsand popula much across- of therural waste hair is sent to China tion existed.India by Then, 2 October another 2019 group,to —be led themade by 150th into anwigs.- Eske Willerslev,niversary publishedof Mahatma genome-wide Gandhi’sDoron birth. and Jeffrey In analyse the iso- Subhra Priyadarshini examines the wide-ranging data from2017, a the recent project find. achieved Theylated, fit. a small-scaleThe remarkable attempts of large Indian

70% coverage of ruralcompanies areas. Significant such as ITC CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION and the Ramky impacts of India’s throw-away culture. remains70% of acoverage boy from of Mal’ta rural companiesin areas. Siberia, Significant such as ITC CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY COLLECTION and the Ramky labour-intensive nature of the sector — datedin the challengesto brass-workingabout 24,000 remain, years however.ago,Group became toUntreated recycle waste profitably as well means that un organized waste-pickers do thecentre typesewage specimen Moradabad is choking for the Ancient theas mighty hygienically, North Yamuna through state-of-the-art

People collect recyclable most of the dirty work. Their job is to collect whoriver extract and partsmetals of the lakecontainment, system around neutralization and disposalMOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS People collect recyclable most of the dirty work. Their job is to collect Eurasians:whoriver extract a and ghost partsmetals made, of ifthe not lake containment,flesh, system then around neutralization and disposal material at a dump in and segregate household, commercial and atfrom leastBangalore, electronicbone (M. Raghavan waste.for instance. ettechnologies. al. Nature For instance, Ramky’s first Guwhati, India. industrial waste for processing in centres 505,The 87–91; illegalDespite 2014). operation India’s Other traditionghostproject popula of in-frugality, 2000 was managing medical modern Europeans and to those that where it is sorted for composting, recycling tionssuffuses havethe rise beentheir of predicted. lungsconsumerism Aswastes each contributes new for disposal to at government-approved or energy generation. However, the reality withthese metallic issues. dustThe dark sidecentres. of the By econom 2016, the- country had just 198 led to modern Native Americans. The HAZARIKA/REUTERS ANUWAR or energy generation. However, the reality withthese metallic issues. dustThe dark sidecentres. of the By econom 2016, the- country had just 198 led to modern Native Americans. The HAZARIKA/REUTERS ANUWAR type specimen is discovered, more pieces team named these people Ancient North rarely reflects this orderly progression. ofand the icpuzzlechemical liberalization slot fumes,into place, of 1991 andapproved researchis the generation- disposal centres for more than Eurasians. Non-compliance is rife: waste is often not ersand can ofchokes reach new the evenwaste nearby further from backmines,169,000 in time. factories hospitals and and clinics. No physical proof of this ghost popula- sorted at source. Ultimately, around 90% of riversReichindustrial detailswith mercury many agriculture. other studies: TheThe ofgradual authorsthe switch rightly call for a sustainable Waste of a Nation: Reich details many other studies: of the tion existed. Then, another group, led by unsorted waste is thrown into dumps. Mean- and fromarsenic. natural, In these biodegradable system. Tomaterials be practical, this must be Eske Willerslev, published genome-wide Garbage and phenomenalfrom spreadnatural, of thebiodegradable Yamnaya from materials Eske Willerslev, published genome-wide while, the millions of scavengers and cleaners landsto of plasticswaste, humans is changing motivated behaviour by profit,even discipline, need, pride data from a recent find. They fit. The while, the millions of scavengers and cleaners Growth in India centrallandsto ofEurope plasticswaste, to humans Asia’sis changing Altai Mountainsmotivated behaviour by profit,even discipline, need, pride remains of a boy from Mal’ta in Siberia, are not part of any organized waste-manage- ASSA DORON & ROBIN someend upamong5,000 being years the treated rural ago; as ofpoor. the FororAndaman better instance, still, twigs a combination of these. dated to about 24,000 years ago, became ment system, and lack health, safety and legal JEFFREY Islanderswaste.(daatuun and the) populationsof the medicinal ofIn India; 2013, neemof China tree signed up to a ‘circular the type specimen for the Ancient North cover. They face harrowing occupational Harvard University ancientSewage,(Azadirachta remains as Waste in North indica of America,), onceeconomy’ such used as to model brush devoted to recycling as Press: 2018. Eurasians: a ghost made, if not flesh, then hazards. Urban dumps in mega cities such as thea Nation8,500-year-oldteeth, underlines, have Kennewickgiven way much Man.to plastic as possible. tooth -This is one approach to at least bone (M. Raghavan et al. Nature Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata can be clogged isWhat a brushes.prime his and concern The other latter labs are are uncoveringsustainability. a recycling night But- India has, as Waste of a 505, 87–91; 2014). Other ghost popula- 505, 87–91; 2014). Other ghost popula- with excrement, rotten food, and liquid and in a country where ismore themare: than tremendous 560 separating million degree bristles Nationto from which emphasizes,the handle other strengths that tions have been predicted. As each new solid household wastes that can promote people defecate in the open.is labour-intensive In 2014, the and couldunrewarding. unite municipalities and individu- type specimen is discovered, more pieces populations globally are blended, type specimen is discovered, more pieces infectious diseases and attract flies, rats and government of Prime MinisterDoron Narendra and Jeffrey als.also One discuss is its 40,000India’s civic organizations and of the puzzle slot into place, and research- repeatedly,Doron over generations.and Jeffrey Gone also isdiscuss the India’s ers can reach even further back in time. other vectors. Dumps can catch fire; burn- Modi set out to tacklefamily the wasteproblem tree spreadingmarket. with the The from Africaworld’saction overlargest groups ‘shipthat -could catalyse coalitions Reich details many other studies: of the n Waste of a Nation, ingan in-depth tyres, for invesinstance,- emitindustrial volatile organicwaste for processingSwachh Bharatin centres (‘clean the world,India’)breaking’ with campaign, industry each branch is inbetween andAlang. twig Here, kabaadiwalas re- , professionals, phenomenal spread of the Yamnaya from tigation of India’s feeblecompounds fight andagainst particulate where matter. it is sortedDoron for composting,pledging to recycling build 120 representing milliontired toilets ships a new acrossare population imported scientists, that and never dismantled, engineers, ethical businesses and, Akshay Kumar plays the lead in Pad Man, a fictionalized biopic of sanitary-pad innovator Arunachalam Muruganantham. central Europe to Asia’s Altai Mountains mountains of consumeristand Jeffrey waste, cite are a suspectedor energy outbreak generation. of However,rural India the by reality 2 October touches 2019and others. their — the What parts 150th hasand been materials importantly,revealed — is primarily politicians. ■ some 5,000 years ago; of the Andaman Irobust statistics, compellingbubonic history plague and in Surat inrarely 1994 reflectsas an exam this- orderlyanniversary progression. of Mahatmasomethingsteel Gandhi’s much— are more birth. sold complex for profit. and excitIndia- is also a I something much more complex and excit- Islanders and the populations of India; of India should be seen as a country of one national innovation prize, a spot on TIME collaboration with women’s self-help groups Islanders and the populations of India; of tellingIndia case should studies. be seen The pleas aauthors, ofcountry the breakdown anthro of one- of nationalcivicNon-compliance waste innovation man- prize,is rife:In 2017,a wastespot the on is projectTIME often ing: achieved populationscollaborationleading a remarkable exporter that with split ofwomen’s hair,andSubhra re-form, a self-help market Priyadarshini groupsworth is chief editor of ancient remains in North America, such as billion minds.” magazine’s ‘100 most influential people’ list and cooperatives. He has spawned close to pologistbillion minds.” Assa Doron andagement. historian They Robin point, too,magazine’snot to asorted community ‘100at source. most influential Ultimately,70% coverage people’ around of list rural change areas.andalmost under The cooperatives. sanitation US$400selective pressures, million.He hasNature spawned Manymove, India closeHindus. to the 8,500-year-old Kennewick Man. Jeffrey,Muruganantham’s also throw isthe the occasionalinspiring story philo of- in90% 2014, of andunsorted one of wasteIndia’s ishighest thrown civilian into 2,500 suchhave their haircentres, cut inin templesIndia and to ademon dozen- What his and other labs are uncovering Jeffrey, also throw the occasional philo- 90% of unsorted waste is thrown into exchangehave ideas, their overthrow hair cut in one temples another. to demon- an unconventional and tenderhearted man. awards, the Padma Shri, in 2016. other developing countries.15 MARCH His 2018 pads | VOL retail 555 | NATURE | 309 ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. sophical curve ball, such as: “waste is in dumps. Meanwhile,©2018 M athec mi llmillionsan Publishe rofs L iscavmited-, pGenomicsart of Sstratepri ng ander devotion,Na tstatisticsure. All ri g andhaveh15ts r MARCHe s muchdrawnerved. backof 2018 the | VOLwaste 555 | NATURE | 309 is the tremendous degree to which In the early 1990s, he was an assistant in a Pad Man makes Muruganantham’s at a fraction of the cost of those from multi- populations globally are blended, theIn the eye early of the 1990s, beholder”. he was The an assistantresult is inboth a engersPad andMan cleaners makes are Muruganantham’s not part of any or- the curtainathair a fraction is on sent the to of sort Chinathe of cost sex to of andbe those made power from into multi wigs.- populations globally are blended, hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often national brands. repeatedly, over generations. Gone is the beguilinghardware andworkshop. disturbing. His wife’s use of rags unusualganized journeywaste-management relatable, although system, it often and struggles nationalDoron you’d brands.expect and inJeffrey Game ofanalyse Thrones the. isolat- INNOVATION during menstruation concerned him, so he descends a little Although Pad Man captures the essence family tree spreading from Africa over duringAs Doron menstruation and Jeffrey concerned show, him, waste so he in descendslack health, a safetylittle and legal cover. They Reiched,Although also small-scale reflects Pad on attempts Manhow hiscaptures work of large can the essenceIndian Children working in a shipyard in Bangladesh. Poor adolescents in low- and middle-income countries often have to work, sometimes in dangerous conditions. experimented with materials — first cotton, into preachiness. of grass-roots innovation and benefits from the world, with each branch and twig Indiaexperimented has generated with materials a vast recycling— first cotton, cul- intoface harrowingpreachiness. occupational “Period hazards. poverty Ur - be misinterpretedofcompanies grass-roots bysuch innovation the aspublic ITC and and and those benefits the Ramky from then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too, with true-to-life portrayals by a brilliant set of representing a new population that never turethen —cellulose a world fibre apart, — to ofmake kabaadiwalas a pad that Itban falters, dumps too, in with megacities is a health such as issue Mum - outsidetrue-to-lifeGroup the field, to recyclein portrayals a heartfelt waste sectionby profitably a brilliant that asset wellof touches others. What has been revealed is wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a laboured first actors, the instructive overtone mars the (garbagewouldn’t leak,buyers), in a scavengers process of reverseand ‘rubbish engi- abai, laboured Delhi and first Kolkata affecting can be women clogged I can sympathizeactors,as hygienically, the instructivewith. throughAs soon overtone asstate-of-the-art some mars the something much more complex and excit- neering.rajas’. The At first,authors when reveal it came the tocomplex testing hiscul- half,with inexcrement, which the rotten food, and liquid narrative.containment, If it wants neutralization to reach other and countries disposal Waste mountain rajas’. The authors reveal the complex cul- with excrement, rottenin countriesfood, and liquid containment, neutralization and disposal Waste mountain ing: populations that split and re-form, in countries genetic discoveries are published, they ing: populations that split and re-form, prototypes,tural, social, “the political only available and religious victim hur was- riskand solidto women’s household wastes that can pro- affectedtechnologies. by period For poverty,instance, the Ramky’s song-and- first Understand young people change under selective pressures, move, tural, social, political and religious hur- and solid household acrosswastes that the can pro- can becometechnologies. freighted For with instance, prejudices Ramky’s and first change under selective pressures, move, my wife”, Muruganantham said in a 2012 health is not clearly dance might be a dampener. The film is also Subhra Priyadarshini examines the wide-ranging exchange ideas, overthrow one another. dles that hamper the country’s struggle mote infectious diseasesglobe.” and attract flies,polarized project interpretations. in 2000 was We allmanaging belong to medical exchange ideas, overthrow one another. TED talk. In Pad Man, we see Lakshmikant delineated, and the currently an urban sensation. Reaching its Genomics and statistics have drawn back withTED waste,talk. In from Pad Man unjust, we pressure see Lakshmikant on ‘low- delineated,rats and other and thevectors. Dumps can catch one speciescurrentlywastes and for we an are disposalurban all related. sensation. at Yetgovernment-ap when Reaching its- impacts of India’s throw-away culture. perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigma associated target audience in India’s rural hinterland impacts of India’s throw-away culture. the curtain on the sort of sex and power caste’perfecting Dalits the to scientific collect stepshuman of pulverizing excreta to stigmafire; burning associated tyres, for instance, emit vol- genetictargetproved differences audience centres. between inBy India’s 2016, populations, ruralthe country hinterland had struggles you’d expect in Game of Thrones. celluloseunenforcedINNOVATION fibres, environmental compressing regulations. them, sealing withatile theorganic subject compounds of menstruation and particulateis signalled mightjust 198 be difficult,approved given disposal the taboo centres — unless for in low-income countries unenforced environmental regulations. atile organic compounds and particulate for instance,just 198 are approvedrevealed, the disposal media andcentres for the pad with non-woven fabric and sanitiz- by bursts of “Sharam!” (shame) from the Balki and team have a plan for that. Reich also reflects on how his work can theMeanwhile, pad with non-woven the mountain fabric andbuilds sanitiz by- bymatter. bursts Doron of “Sharam and Jeffrey!” (shame) cite afrom suspect the- interestBalkimore groups andthan team 169,000can haveoversimplify hospitalsa plan for andthat.and clinics. n Waste of a Nation, an in-depth hamper the country’s struggle with waste, be misinterpreted by the public and those ing the whole with ultraviolet light. And it female actors. Endorsing Bollywood’s Meanwhile, a social movement is now For most of the world’s adolescents, poverty and social marginalization influence be misinterpreted by the public and those aning averagethe whole 100,000 with ultraviolet tonnes alight. day And — ita femaleed outbreak actors. of bubonic Endorsing plague Bollywood’s in Surat in distort. SomeMeanwhile,The pickauthors and a socialrightlychoose movement resultscall for to a sustainis now- investigation of India’s feeble fight from unjust pressure on ‘low-caste’ Dalits outside the field, in a heartfelt section that was all accomplished using four ingenious, un apologetic love affair with song and associated with the film. Muruganantham fractionwas all accomplished of the US tally, using but four problematic ingenious, un1994 apologetic as an example love affair of the with breakdown song and of justifyassociatedable personal, system. andwith To sadly the be film. often practical, Muruganantham political this must against mountains of consumeristhealth much to morecollect human than excreta risk-taking to unenforced does, argue Robert Blum and Jo Boyden. I can sympathize with. As soon as some makeshift machines that cost peanuts, com- dance, the demure Gayatri suddenly breaks has mentored a biologist, Maya Wastenevertheless.makeshift machines India thathas costfew mountainpeanuts, mechanisms com- dance,civic waste the demure management. Gayatri Theysuddenly point, breaks too, or racist,hasbe motivated beliefs.mentored Othersby profit,a biologist,sweep discipline, the Maya need, Iwaste, are robust statistics, compelling environ mental regulations. genetic discoveries are published, they Waste mountain I genetic discoveries are published, they pared to the giant assembly lines used by into an exaggerated, hip-swaying number to Vishwakarma, who came home to rural can become freighted with prejudices and forpared dealing to the with giant sewage assembly and lines hazardous, used by intoto a communityan exaggerated, in the hip-swaying brass-working number cen to- differencesVishwakarma,pride under or better the carpet. who still, came Yet, a ascombination home Reich to rural of history and telling case studies. The authors, Meanwhile, the mountain builds by an can become freighted with prejudices and Subhramultinational Priyadarshini companies. examines thecelebrate wide-ranging the puberty of a girl next door. Madhya Pradesh from California four years polarized interpretations. We all belong to wet,Subhramultinational medical Priyadarshini companies.or electronic waste. examines And, thecelebratetre wide-rangingMoradabad the puberty who ofextract a girl next metals door. from argues,Madhyathese. we do In needPradesh 2013, a non-loaded fromChina California signed way to fourup yearsto a anthropologist Assa Doron andearly historian 90% of currentaverage evidence 100,000 about tonnesand a day there — aare fraction fewer resources to mitigate impaired development and premature At the cost of being ostracized for openly The rest of the film brings in the usual ago to spread menstrual-hygiene awareness. one species and we are all related. Yet when impactslikeAt many the cost other of of beingIndia’s countries, ostracized throw-away it is forlosing openly the culture.electronicThe rest waste. of the The film illegal brings operation in the usual suf- talk aboutago‘circular togenetic spread economy’ diversity menstrual-hygiene andmodel similarities devoted awareness. to re- Robin Jeffrey, also throw theadolescence occasional comesof from the research US tally, in but problematicsuch risks. neverthe Adolescents- in LMICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedly elements of a potboiler — a love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to genetic differences between populations, battletackling with a hidden megamounds issue, he workedof plastic. doggedly Until elementsfuses their of lungsa potboiler with —metallic a love angle,dust and the in populations.Vishwakarmacycling as This much bookhas asnow goes possible. received some wayThis backing is oneto philosophical curve ball, such as:high-income “waste is countries.less. India Yet hasnine- few mechanismsto have many for dealing more family responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles- for instance, are revealed, the media and on the pad’s design. The biggest challenge rise and rise of the protagonist and Gayatri’s distribute free pads to tribal women. Her for instance, are revealed, the media and 1985,on the the pad’s country design. did The not biggest even challenge have an risechemical and rise fumes, of the protagonistand chokes and the Gayatri’s nearby to startingdistributeapproach that conversation. tofree sustainability. pads to ■ tribal But women. India Herhas, in the eye of the beholder”.Ntenths The of result people is both aged betweenwith sewage 10 and and 24 hazardous,than their wet, peers medical in high-income countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged to starting that conversation. in the eye of the beholder”. The result is both with sewage and hazardous, wet, medical interest groups can oversimplify and wasn findingWaste of volunteers a Nation ,to an test in-depth it. “Every - hamperforgive-and-feel-proud the country’s struggle with reconciliation.waste, mission has earned her the sobriquet Pad interest groups can oversimplify and urban-developmentwasn findingWaste of volunteers a Nation ministry. ,to an test in-depth it. “Every - hamperforgive-and-feel-proudrivers the country’s with mercury struggle and with arsenic. reconciliation.waste, In these missionas Waste has of earneda Nation her emphasizes,the sobriquet other Pad beguiling and disturbing.live in low- and middle-incomeor electronic countries waste. And,Currently, like many millions other of young people in 15–24) in these countries than for any other distort. Some pick and choose results to oneMunicipalinvestigation thought I bodieshad of goneIndia’s are mad,” feebleresponsible he fight says. Hefor from unjustBachchanlands pressureof waste,delivers on ‘low-caste’humans the applause-inducing Dalitsend up being Woman.strengths The that buzz could created unite by Padmunicipalities Man might 1 justify personal, and sadly often political Municipalagainst mountains bodies areof consumerist responsible for to collectlands human of waste, excreta humans to unenforced end up being Turi Kingstrengths is professor that ofcould public unite municipalities As Doron and Jeffrey(LMICs), show, wherewaste thisin life stagecountries, looks it very is losing theLMICs battle arewith condemned mega- to poor health, age group . justify personal, and sadly often political finallymanagingagainst realized waste.mountains that But he could traditionof consumerist turn — guinea and pigthe to collectline:treated human “America as waste. excreta has toSuperman, unenforced Spiderman helpand individuals.her small non-profit One is itsorganization 40,000 civic to getor- or racist, beliefs. Others sweep the Iwaste,managing are robustwaste. statistics,But tradition compelling — and the environtreated mental asregulations. waste. engagementand individuals. and reader inOne genetics is its and40,000 civic or- India has generated a vastdifferent recycling (see culture‘Worlds apart’).mounds of plastic. Until 1985, the country We need to better understand the every- himself. He wore a pad, and used a deflated and Batman. India has Pad Man!” international donors and become a national differences under the carpet. Yet, as Reich historylabour-intensive and telling casenature studies. of The the authors, sector — Meanwhile,Sewage, the mountainas Waste builds of a byNation an under- archaeologyganizations at the Universityand action of Leicester,groups that could — a world apart, of kabaadiwalasIn LMICs, (garbage young people’s did health not and even well- have an urban-development day realities of adolescents’ lives in LMICs football filled with goat’s blood and fitted Over the past decade, Muruganantham movement. ■ ADOLESCENCE argues, we do need a non-loaded way to anthropologistmeansfootball that filled unorganized Assawith Doron goat’s andwaste-pickersblood historian and fitted do averagelines, 100,000Over is the tonnesa primepast a decade, day concern — a Murugananthamfraction in a country UK. Shemovement.catalyse is leading coalitions the whole-genome between kabaadiwalas , buyers), scavengers andbeing ‘rubbish tend to berajas’. more severelyministry. affected by and how this affects their health. This would with a tube. It took him six years to isolate has travelled across villages in India — first A Nature special issue talk about genetic diversity and similarities Robinmostwith aof Jeffrey,tube. the dirty It also took work. throw him Their thesix yearsoccasional job is to to isolate collect of the haswhereUS tally,travelled more but problematic thanacross 560 villages million neverthe in Indiapeople- — defe first- analysisprofessionals, of the remains scientists, of King Richard engineers, III. ethical The authors reveal thecultural, complex socio-economic cultural, and environmentalMunicipal bodies are responsible for enable targeted investment to improve well- cellulose as the core adsorbing medium. selling his sanitary pads, and then setting Subhra Priyadarshini is chief editor of nature.com/collections/adolescence in populations. This book goes some way philosophicalandcellulose segregate as thecurve household, core ball, adsorbing such commercial as: “waste medium. is and less. Indiasellingcate has in thehisfew sanitarymechanismsopen. In pads,2014, for dealing andthe governmentthen setting e-mail:Subhrabusinesses [email protected] Priyadarshini and, importantly, is chief editorpoliticians. of ■ social, political and religiousrisk factors hurdles than that in high-income managing countries, waste. But tradition — and the being and productivity globally — but it to starting that conversation. ■ inThat the eyeroller-coaster of the beholder”. journey The result won is both him a with sewageup self-sustaining and hazardous, pad-making wet, medical units in Nature India. 36 beguiling38 and disturbing. or electronic waste. And, like many other 22 FEBRUARY 2018 | VOL 554 | NATURE | 435 36 ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri308ghts r |e sNATUREerved. | VOL 555 | 15 MARCH 2018©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. Turi King is professor of public 28As | NATURE Doron and | VOL Jeffrey 555 show, | 1 MARCH waste in2018 ©20countries,18 Mac milla itn isPu losingblishers theLi m battleited, p awithrt of Smega-pri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. engagement and reader in genetics and India has generated a vast recycling culture mounds of plastic. Until 1985, the country archaeology at the University of Leicester, — a world apart, of kabaadiwalas (garbage did not even have an urban-development UK. She is leading the whole-genome buyers), scavengers and ‘rubbish rajas’. ministry. analysis of the remains of King Richard III. The authors reveal the complex cultural, Municipal bodies are responsible for e-mail: [email protected] social, political and religious hurdles that managing waste. But tradition — and the

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COMMENT COMMENT REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES MOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY MOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY SUSHAVAN NANDY/BARCROFT MEDIA/ GETTY IMAGES NANDY/BARCROFT SUSHAVAN

A child carries bricks on her head as a part of her daily job in West Bengal, India. Thousands of migrants from Bihar and Jharkhand work as unskilled labourers in the brick fields of West Bengal. Children working in a shipyard in Bangladesh. Poor adolescents in low- and middle-income countriesChildren often have working to work, in a sometimes shipyard in inBangladesh. dangerous Poorconditions. adolescents in low- and middle-income countries often have to work, sometimes in dangerous conditions. Understand youngUnderstand people young people in low-income countriesin low-income countries For most of the world’s adolescents, poverty and socialFor marginalization most of the world’s influence adolescents, poverty and social marginalization influence health much more than risk-taking does, argue Roberthealth Blum much and Jo more Boyden than. risk-taking does, argue Robert Blum and Jo Boyden. early 90% of current evidence about and there are fewer resources to mitigate earlyimpaired 90% of currentdevelopment evidence and about premature and there are fewer resources to mitigate impaired development and premature adolescence comes from research in such risks. Adolescents in LMICs also tend adolescencedeath. In fact, comes since from 1990, research there in have beensuch risks. Adolescents in LMICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been high-income countries. Yet nine- to have many more family responsibilities high-incomefewer improvements countries. in Yet health nine- for adolesto have- many more family responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles- Ntenths of people aged between 10 and 24 than their peers in high-income countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged Ntenths of people aged between 10 and 24 than their peers in high-income countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged live in low- and middle-income countries Currently, millions of young peoplelive in in low-15–24) and middle-income in these countries countries than for any otherCurrently, millions of young people in 15–24) in these countries than for any other 1 (LMICs), where this life stage looks very LMICs are condemned to poor health,(LMICs), agewhere group this1. life stage looks very LMICs are condemned to poor health, age group . different (see ‘Worlds apart’). different (seeWe ‘Worlds need toapart’). better understand the every- We need to better understand the every- In LMICs, young people’s health and well- ADOLESCENCE In LMICs,day young realities people’s of adolescents’ health and liveswell- in LMICsOpportunities ADOLESCENCE for education can day realities of adolescents’ lives in LMICs being tend to be more severely affected by being tendand to howbe more this affectsseverely their affected health. by This wouldbe just as importantA Nature special as issue nutrition and how this affects their health. This would A Nature special issue cultural, socio-economic and environmental enable targeted investment to improve well- cultural, socio-economic and environmental nature.com/collections/adolescence enable targeted investment to improve well- for adolescentnature.com/collections/adolescence health. risk factors than in high-income countries, risk factorsbeing than andin high-income productivity countries, globally — but it being and productivity globally — but it

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COMMENT GRANDCOMMENT CHALLENGES REPRINT

means abandoning Western assumptions Gender is another major determinant of adolescents in LMICs is combining the pur- about adolescence being predominantly health differences. The pilot of the ongo- suit of education with work. Young Lives a time for risk-taking. It also means find- ing Global Early Adolescent Study (www. data suggest that the time devoted to educa- ing better ways to reach adolescents — for geastudy.org/), which R.B. is directing, col- tion remains broadly constant for girls and instance, through the use of mobile phones, lected predominantly quantitative data boys aged 8 to 15. But as they grow older, social media and community-based strate- between 2015 and 2017 from about 35 fami- adolescents tend to do more work, either for gies — and applying approaches such as web- lies in 15 countries on 5 continents. These pay or as part of family life. Indeed, they are based surveys and interactive data-collection data indicate that, compared with their frequently the primary carers of younger sib- methods to build a richer picture of the forces brothers and male peers, girls in LMICs lings or incapacitated adults. Some are even shaping young people’s lives. tend to experience more social isolation as the principal breadwinners in their house-

MOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY they move from childhood to adolescence, holds (see ‘Age of responsibility’). POVERTY TRAP and have fewer opportunities in education, Employment can affect health during Studies show that adolescents in LMICs who recreation and exploration. adolescence in many ways. Young workers are subject to poverty and restricted access to Opportunities for education can be just as commonly suffer more accidents than adult health, education and other services are also important as nutrition for adolescent health. workers, and they are particularly suscepti- more likely to be exposed to environmental According to a 2014 study, for instance, there ble when exposed to chemical toxins from toxins and extreme weather events, such as is a strong link between teenage pregnancy mining or agricultural work, for example7. droughts, than their wealthier peers. and low levels of literacy in Africa4. And a And this pile-up of multiple stressors is wealth of literature shows that deficiencies NO TIME TO PLAY likely to worsen in the coming years. Accord- early in life cast a long shadow. Experts in the Global North generally ing to the Notre-Dame Global Adaptation As part of Young Lives (www.younglives. assume that adolescence is a carefree time Initiative (http://gain.nd.edu), out of the 100 org.uk), an ongoing longitudinal study of emerging independence, social explora- countries most vulnerable to climate change, directed by J.B., tion and risk-taking. This way of thinking 42 are low-income countries, 33 are lower researchers have “Adolescents carries over to adolescent-focused health middle-income countries and 14 are upper been collecting infor- are the least programmes and policies in LMICs, which middle-income countries. Meanwhile, rapid mation about 12,000 likely of any age regularly focus on violence, sexually trans- and unplanned urbanization is driving more children in Ethiopia, group to access mitted infections and teen pregnancies. overcrowding, road injuries, noise pollution India, Peru and Viet- Too many programmes fail to understand 2 conventional and the accumulation of toxins such as lead . nam for 15 years. In what drives behaviour in the first place, and In LMICs, adolescents from minor- all four countries, health ignore the broader risks that young people ity communities tend to be significantly children whose services.” face from poverty, work, social stigma or more disadvantaged than those in majority growth is stunted exclusion from quality services. Also, many populations. A 2009 study of the health and when they are around one year old are likely centre around the provision of clinical ser- well-being of more than 10,000 individuals to remain so until they are at least 15 (ref. 5). vices, even though adolescents are the least in Vietnam aged 14 to 25 found that young Those who experience an early nutritional likely of any age group to access conventional people from ethnic minorities fared worse disadvantage are more likely to have difficulty health services8. than those from the Kinh majority in every progressing through school. And stunting at With the right approach, community- measure3. For example, 10% of young peo- age 8 correlates with lower scores on measures based interventions geared towards reduc- ple from ethnic minorities reported being of self-efficacy, self-esteem and educational ing a behavioural problem such as violence illiterate,Children compared working with in a1% shipyard of Kinh in Bangladesh.young Pooraspirations adolescents at age in low-12 (ref. 6). and middle-income countries oftencan havealso toimprove work, sometimes the overall in health dangerous and well-conditions. people. Another characteristic of life for poor being of young people. Reducing violence

AGE OF RESPONSIBILITY As they grow up, young people in low- and middle-income countries tend to devote more of their time to work that helps sustain their families. Under-reportingUnderstand of work is likely because those surveyed described ‘a typical day younglast week’ when school was in session. people Time spent in: Work Education 12 ETHIOPIAin low-incomeINDIA PERU countriesVIETNAM For most of the world’s adolescents, poverty and social marginalization influence

8 health much more than risk-taking does, argue Robert Blum and Jo Boyden.

early 90% of current evidence about and there are fewer resources to mitigate impaired development and premature adolescence comes from research in such risks. Adolescents in LMICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been Hours per day high-income countries. Yet nine- to have many more family responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles & C. PORTER, UNPUBLISHED DATA REVOLLO ESPINOZA SOURCE: P. - 4 Ntenths of people aged between 10 and 24 than their peers in high-income countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged live in low- and middle-income countries Currently, millions of young people in 15–24) in these countries than for any other (LMICs), where this life stage looks very LMICs are condemned to poor health, age group1. different (see ‘Worlds apart’). We need to better understand the every- In LMICs, young people’s health and well- ADOLESCENCE day realities of adolescents’ lives in LMICs 0 being tend to be more severely affected by A Nature special issue and how this affects their health. This would cultural,5 7 socio-economic 9 11 13 15and environmental 17 5 7 9 11 13 15nature.com/collections/adolescence 17 5 7 9 11 13 15 17enable5 targeted 7 9 investment 11 13 to 15 improve 17 well- risk factors than in high-income countries, Age (years) being and productivity globally — but it

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COMMENT COMMENT REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGESCOMMENT means abandoning Western assumptions Gender is another major determinant of adolescents in LMICs is combining the pur- they access resources, who controls their about adolescence being predominantly health differences. The pilot of the ongo- suit of education with work. Young Lives earnings, and so on. Researchers must also a time for risk-taking. It also means find- ing Global Early Adolescent Study (www. data suggest that the time devoted to educa- work out how health measures can be inte- ing better ways to reach adolescents — for geastudy.org/), which R.B. is directing, col- tion remains broadly constant for girls and grated into schools or mobile-phone applica- instance, through the use of mobile phones, lected predominantly quantitative data boys aged 8 to 15. But as they grow older, tions, rather than delivered solely through social media and community-based strate- between 2015 and 2017 from about 35 fami- adolescents tend to do more work, either for medical facilities. This is not simply about gies — and applying approaches such as web- lies in 15 countries on 5 continents. These pay or as part of family life. Indeed, they are making schools a hub for health education based surveys and interactive data-collection data indicate that, compared with their frequently the primary carers of younger sib- and services; greater flexibility in time tables methods to build a richer picture of the forces brothers and male peers, girls in LMICs lings or incapacitated adults. Some are even or the provision of catch-up classes and shaping young people’s lives. tend to experience more social isolation as the principal breadwinners in their house- vocational measures, for example, could

they move from childhoodMOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY to adolescence, holds (see ‘Age of responsibility’). encourage more working adolescents to stay POVERTY TRAP and have fewer opportunities in education, Employment can affect health during in school for longer. Studies show that adolescents in LMICs who recreation and exploration. adolescence in many ways. Young workers Finally, international organizations, such are subject to poverty and restricted access to Opportunities for education can be just as commonly suffer more accidents than adult as the World Health Organization, the Inter- health, education and other services are also important as nutrition for adolescent health. workers, and they are particularly suscepti- national Labour Organization and the United more likely to be exposed to environmental According to a 2014 study, for instance, there ble when exposed to chemical toxins from Nations Children’s Fund, should direct much toxins and extreme weather events, such as is a strong link between teenage pregnancy mining or agricultural work, for example7. greater effort towards economic analyses and droughts, than their wealthier peers. and low levels of literacy in Africa4. And a surveys of occupational and environmental And this pile-up of multiple stressors is wealth of literature shows that deficiencies NO TIME TO PLAY hazards, exposures to social risks and the likely to worsen in the coming years. Accord- early in life cast a long shadow. Experts in the Global North generally mental health of young people in LMICs. ing to the Notre-Dame Global Adaptation As part of Young Lives (www.younglives. assume that adolescence is a carefree time The second decade of life presents an Initiative (http://gain.nd.edu), out of the 100 org.uk), an ongoing longitudinal study of emerging independence, social explora- extraordinary opportunity to improve peo- countries most vulnerable to climate change, directed by J.B., tion and risk-taking. This way of thinking ple’s health over the long term. And threats 42 are low-income countries, 33 are lower researchers have “Adolescents carries over to adolescent-focused health to human health and well-being are becom- middle-income countries and 14 are upper been collecting infor- are the least programmes and policies in LMICs, which ing more acute in our rapidly urbanizing, middle-income countries. Meanwhile, rapid mation about 12,000 likely of any age regularly focus on violence, sexually trans- industrializing world, with rising environ- and unplanned urbanization is driving more children in Ethiopia, group to access mitted infections and teen pregnancies. mental risks and the potential for reductions overcrowding, road injuries, noise pollution India, Peru and Viet- Too many programmes fail to understand in youth employment opportunities as a 2 conventional and the accumulation of toxins such as lead . nam for 15 years. In what drives behaviour in the first place, and result of expanding technologies. In LMICs, adolescents from minor- all four countries, health ignore the broader risks that young people Only with a realistic understanding of the services.” ity communities tend to be significantly children whose face from poverty, work, social stigma or AnA street apple child seller uses in Changzhi, a cellphone China. outside Text a messagesclosed shop can in Newprovide Delhi. health information for adolescents. lives of young people in LMICs, grounded in more disadvantaged than those in majority growth is stunted exclusion from quality services. Also, many the social, economic and political contexts of populations. A 2009 study of the health and when they are around one year old are likely centre around the provision of clinical ser- and the incidence of HIV/AIDS are among bottom-up approach in which adolescents their everyday lives, do we stand a chance of well-being of more than 10,000 individuals to remain so until they are at least 15 (ref. 5). vices, even though adolescents are the least the principal aims of South Africa’s activity- are treated as partners in improving their shaping their futures for the better. ■ in Vietnam aged 14 to 25 found that young Those who experience an early nutritional likely of any age group to access conventional REUTERS based Waves for Change surf schools, Soul health and well-being, not just the recipients people from ethnic minorities fared worse disadvantage are more likely to have difficulty health services8. Buddyz Clubs and AMANDLA EduFoot- of change. Likewise, the design and imple- Robert Blum is the director of the Johns than those from the Kinh majority in every progressing through school. And stunting at With the right approach, community- ball programmes, for example. But these mentation of interventions must draw on Hopkins Urban Health Institute in Baltimore, measure3. For example, 10% of young peo- age 8 correlates with lower scores on measures based interventions geared towards reduc- programmes also improve young people’s evidence of what works, for whom and why. Maryland, USA, and lead researcher on the ple from ethnic minorities reported being of self-efficacy, self-esteem and educational ing a behavioural problem such as violence fitness, psychological well-being and ability This means that investigators must work Global Early Adolescent Study. Jo Boyden illiterate, compared with 1% of Kinh young aspirations at age 12 (ref. 6). Children working in a shipyardcan also in Bangladesh. improve the Poor overall adolescents health and in low- well- and middle-income countriesto often form have friendships to work, sometimes and take responsibilityin dangerous conditions. in communities and across all settings — not is professor of international development

people. Another characteristic of life for poor being of young people. Reducing violence IMAGES SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP/GETTY for others. just in hospitals and clinics — to understand and director of the Young Lives study at the Donors, governments and non-govern- how young people spend their time, how University of Oxford, UK. AGE OF RESPONSIBILITY mental organizations in LMICs are expand- e-mails: [email protected]; As they grow up, young people in low- and middle-income countries tend to devote more of their time to work that helps sustain their ing their repertoire of approaches. But better WORLDS APART [email protected] families. Under-reporting of work is likely because those surveyed described ‘a typical day last week’ Understandwhen school was in session. youngresearch tools peopleand more community-based Most research on 10- to 24-year-olds comes initiatives are needed that focus specifically from high-income countries. But nine-tenths 1. Mokdad, A. H. et al. Lancet 387, 2383–2401 Time spent in: Work Education on understanding and enhancing resilience of this age group live in low- or (2016). 12 middle-income countries (LMICs). among adolescents. 2. Wachs, T. D. & Rahman, A. in Handbook of Early 11, E0157805 (2016)

Childhood Development Research and Its Impact ETHIOPIA INDIA PERU VIETNAM in low-income countriesDigital technologies offer fresh ways on Global Policy (eds Britto, P. R., Engle, P. L. & to improve health and well-being (see 1 in 4 people are aged Super, C. M.) 85–122 (Oxford Univ. Press, 2013). between 10 and 24; 90% 3. Vietnamese Ministry of Health & General For most of the world’s adolescents, poverty and socialpage 432). marginalization Various surveys conducted influence over live in LMICs. Statistics Office of Vietnam. Survey and health much more than risk-taking does, argue ONE AL. PLOS ET Robertthe past decade Blum indicate and that Jo young Boyden peo- . Assessment of Vietnamese Youth (2009). 8 ple in LMICs value the unrestricted access 4. Odejimi, O. & Bellingham-Young, D. J. Hum. to information and the privacy that the Growth Dev. 24, 135–141 (2014). ÅGESTEN ÅGESTEN 5. Georgiadis, A. et al. SSM Popul. Health 2, 43–54 Internet affords, and prefer digital media early 90% of current evidence about and there are fewer resources to mitigate impaired development and premature (2016). over other delivery channels for health 6. Dercon, S. & Sánchez, A. Econ. Hum. Biol. 11, adolescence comes from research in such risks. Adolescents in LMICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been information9. Several investigators have 426–432 (2013). SOURCE: A. K Hours per day high-income countries. Yet nine- to have many more & C. PORTER, UNPUBLISHED DATA REVOLLO ESPINOZA SOURCE: P. family responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles- 7. International Programme on the Elimination of already tried to exploit these preferences. 4 Ntenths of people aged between 10 and 24 than their peers in high-income countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged Child Labour. Children in Hazardous Work (ILO, In a recent randomized trial in Ghana, for 7.6 BILLION 2011). live in low- and middle-income countries Currently, millions of young people in 15–24) in these countries than for any other 8. Patton, G. C. et al. Lancet 387, 2423–2478 instance, text messages1 improved girls’ GLOBAL (LMICs), where this life stage looks very LMICs are condemned to poor health, age group . (2016). knowledge about reproductive health10. POPULATION different (see ‘Worlds apart’). We need to better understand the every- 9. Byrne, J., Kardefelt-Winther, D., Livingstone, S. Evidence on the effectiveness of digital & Stoilova, M. Global Kids Online Research In LMICs, young people’s health and well- day realities of adolescents’ lives in LMICs ADOLESCENCE health information in changing behaviours Synthesis, 2015–2016 (UNICEF Office of 0 being tend to be more severely affected by A Nature special issue and how this affects their health. This would Research Innocenti and London School of is needed, however. Economics and Political Science, 2016). 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 5cultural, 7 socio-economic 9 11 13 15 and 17 environmental5 7 9 11 13 15 17 enable targeted investment to improve well- nature.com/collections/adolescence Importantly, researchers, policy makers, 10. Rokicki, S., Cohen, J., Salomon, J. A. & Fink, G. risk factors than in high-income countries, being and productivity globally — but it Age (years) practitioners and others must deploy a Am. J. Publ. Health 107, 298–305 (2017). 41 ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. A22ll ri gFEBRUARYhts reserved. 2018 | VOL 554 | NATURE | 435 436 | NATURE | VOL 554 | 22 FEBRUARY©20 201818 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts reserved. ©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. Al22l ri g FEBRUARYhts reserved. 2018 | VOL 554 | NATURE | 437

Review ARticle https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models in the developing-world context

Kumar Biswajit Debnath * and Monjur Mourshed

Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments of the impact of energy policies on the economy and envi- ronment. Most EPMs originated in developed countries and are primarily aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find an absence of consideration of the objectives, challenges, and nuances of the developing context. Key deficiencies arise from the lack of deliberation of the low energy demand resulting from lack of access and availability of supply. Other inadequacies include the lack of consideration of socio-economic nuances such as the prevalence of corruption and resulting cost inflation, the methods for adequately addressing the shortcomings in data quality, availability and adequacy, and the effects of climate change. We argue for further research on characterization and modelling of suppressed demand, climate change impacts, and socio-political feedback in developing countries, and the development of contextual EPMs.

uman activities have led to rapid changes in atmospheric con- are concerned with increasing access to electricity, which is consid- 1 centrations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions1, contribut- ered a prerequisite for development and economic empowerment, 2 ing to and amplifying global climate change2. Fossil fuels and as reflected by the inclusion of energy as a goal in the Sustainable H 10 H 10 land-use change (for example, through deforestation and farming) Development Goals . The current CO2 emissions per capita of land-use change (for example, through deforestation and farming) Development Goals . The current CO2 emissions per capita of are two primary sources of GHG emissions, of which the emissions developing countries are low, often much below the global average 3 from land use has been nearly constant3, while the emissions from (Fig. 1c). Hence, emission reduction is not always on the agenda for fossil-fuel based energy systems increased by 50% between 2000 developing countries, even at a cursory level, except for a few large 4 11 and 2013 (ref. 4). Current energy and transportation systems can countries such as China and India11. 5 result in substantial GHG discharges5, with a likely global mean Energy planning models (EPMs) play an essential role in the temperature increase between 2.0–4.9 °C, with a median of 3.2 °C development of the energy sector at global, national and regional 6 by 2100 (ref. 6). Even if current GHG concentrations remain con- levels by enabling informed decision-making. EPMs are especially stant, the world will experience a few centuries of rising tempera- crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and 7,8 12 ture and ocean level7,8. Therefore, substantial reductions in global planning are required for decarbonization12. The development of 13 GHG emissions are essential for mitigating climate change. EPMs started in the late 1950s and early 1960s (ref. 13) but intensi- In addition to the infrastructural elements of national energy fied after the oil crisis of the 1970s in light of the realization of the systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy 14 to grid electricity and purchasing power of the population influ- supply14. It was necessary, then, to critically assess the interrelation- ence energy end-use and GHG emissions. Figure 1a illustrates that ships between the sources of energy supply and demand, as well as both access to electricity and per capita CO2 emissions are more to identify pathways for long-term development of the energy sec- both access to electricity and per capita CO2 emissions are more to identify pathways for long-term development of the energy sec- 15 significant in high-income countries, compared to low-income and tor15. The drive for global sustainability in the 1990s — spurred in middle-income developing countries. Most developed countries particular by the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and the 1995 report 16 can ensure 100% access to electricity, which only a few develop- of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)16 — ing countries can match. In 2010, annual per capita CO2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG emissions and their impact on ing countries can match. In 2010, annual per capita CO2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG emissions and their impact on ranged from 0.02–15.14 tCO2 in low and middle-income coun- the environment. As a result, further models were developed for ranged from 0.02–15.14 tCO2 in low and middle-income coun- the environment. As a result, further models were developed for tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental there is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans- 4 income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro- CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro- all low and middle-income countries in 2010. This is because 93.3% viding a comprehensive picture of the interrelationships between of Costa Rica’s energy was from renewable resources, of which energy, environment, and climate change. 9 hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have As a result, future energy planning objectives of developed and been developed by researchers and organizations in different coun- developing countries are distinctly different. In developed coun- tries, with various objectives and scopes. EPMs range from the tries, the focus today is on reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun- energy security, primarily characterized by a shift from fossil fuels try, region or the world — to the more sectoral — providing projec- towards more renewable resources. However, developing countries tions of the energy needs of, for example, transportation or industry.

BRE Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: [email protected]

42 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. NaTurE ENErgy NaTurE ENErgy Review ARticle Review ARticle REPRINT GRANDReview CHALLENGES ARticle Review ARticle https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 a 100 Table 2 | Characteristics of100 existing energy planning models Low and middle income High income Qatar Model Input variablesa Methodb Qatar Output variablesc total ref. Kuwait United States Luxembourg Qul Qua Fin agg Disaag reBrunei Darussalam OP eCUnited States SM eQLuxembourg aF en em Co Australia Bahrain Australia energy information system Russian Federation Canada Russian Federation Belgium Challenges and gaps for energy planning models Finland Belgium 67 E3 10 ✓ ✓ Finland✓ Denmark ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 10 Austria Denmark Palau 68 CO2DB Palau Argentina Slovenia Malaysia 5 ✓ ✓ Argentina ✓SloveniaHungary ✓ ✓ Hungary France Mongolia in the developing-world context Energy economic model Guyana Latvia Lithuania Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Guyana Latvia Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Jamaica Algeria MAM St. Vincent and the Grenadines d Jamaica AlgeriaMauritius 5 69 ✓ ✓ ✓ St. Vincent and the Grenadines ✓ Peru Mauritius ✓ Marshall Islands Peru Singapore MARKAL-MACRO Angola Namibia e Brazil 10 70 Kumar Biswajit Debnath * and Monjur Mourshed ✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓Angola ✓ Namibia Fiji ✓ ✓ Liechtenstein ✓ Brazil ✓ ✓ ✓ Fiji India Liechtenstein MICRO-MELODIE India e Honduras 9 71 1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 025507Senegal 51e 00 72 Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments of the impact of energy policies on theTIMES- economy and MACRO envi- 02✓ ✓ 55✓ ✓Zim babwe 07✓ ✓51 00 ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 Benin Zimbabwe Bhutan Benin Bangladesh ronment. Most EPMs originated in developed countries and are primarily aimed at reducing greenhouse gasenergy emissions demand-supply while model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka Mauritania Kenya Tajikistan enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing Haiti 73 DECPAC emissions (metric tons per capita) ✓ Liberia ✓ ✓ ✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8

2 Haiti emissions (metric tons per capita) Liberia Afghanistan Lao PDR energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find 2 Afghanistan Tanzania Guinea 74 IKARUS ✓ CO ✓ Tanzania ✓ Guinea✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 an absence of consideration of the objectives, challenges, and nuances of the developing context. Key deficiencies arise from CO Eritrea Comoros ENPEP ✓ ✓ ✓ Eritrea✓ Comoros ✓ e ✓f ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 71,75 the lack of deliberation of the low energy demand resulting from lack of access and availability of supply. Other inadequacies 0.1 Nepal Somalia include the lack of consideration of socio-economic nuances such as the prevalence of corruption and resultingLEAP cost inflation, ✓ ✓ ✓ Somalia ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 76–78 Madagascar the methods for adequately addressing the shortcomings in data quality, availability and adequacy, and thePOLES effects of climate ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 79 change. We argue for further research on characterization and modelling of suppressed demand, climate change impacts, and Chad MESSAGE-III 6 80 socio-political feedback in developing countries, and the development of contextual EPMs. ✓ Burundi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ WASP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 81 Access to electricity (% of population) MARKAL ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 82 0.01 TIMES 7 83 uman activities have led to rapid changes in atmospheric con- are concerned with increasing access to electricity, which is consid- ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ centrations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions1, contribut- ered a prerequisite for development and economicMEDEE empowerment, b ✓ ✓ c ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ 6 84 16 100 40 2 16 100 40 85 ) ing to and amplifying global climate change . Fossil fuels and as reflected by the inclusion of energy as a goalMAED in the Sustainable ✓ ✓) ✓ ✓ 4 H 10 land-use change (for example, through deforestation and farming) Development Goals . The current CO emissions per capita of 35 86 2 NEMS ) 35 7

) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ are two primary sources of GHG emissions, of which the emissions developing countries are low, often much below the global average d 71,75 per capita

ENERPLAN 5

3 12 ✓ per capita 10 ✓ 30 ✓ ✓ ✓

12 2 10 30

from land use has been nearly constant , while the emissions from (Fig. 1c). Hence, emission reduction is not always on the agenda for 2 MESAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 71 fossil-fuel based energy systems increased by 50% between 2000 developing countries, even at a cursory level, except for a few large per capita per capita 2 25

2 25 and 2013 (ref. 4). Current energy and transportation systems can countries such as China and India11. energy emissions model 5 result in substantial GHG discharges , with a likely global mean Energy planning models (EPMs) play anUK essential 2050 role in the 8 1 20 8 87 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ emissions (Gt)

1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 emissions (Gt) temperature increase between 2.0–4.9 °C, with a median of 3.2 °C development of the energy sector at global, national and regional 2 51 BD 2050 2 7 6 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 15 ✓ ✓ ✓ by 2100 (ref. ). Even if current GHG concentrations remain con- levels by enabling informed decision-making. EPMs are especially CO CO

emissions (tCO 88,89

MESAP PlaNet emissions (tCO 8

2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ stant, the world will experience a few centuries of rising tempera- crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and 2 4 0.1 10 90 CO

7,8 12 emissions per capita (tCO

EFOM-ENV 8 CO ture and ocean level . Therefore, substantial reductions in global planning are required for decarbonization . The development of ✓ ✓ ✓emissions per capita (tCO ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

2 13 2 5 91 GHG emissions are essential for mitigating climate change. EPMs started in the late 1950s and early 1960sIMAGE (ref. ) but intensi- ✓ ✓ ✓CO ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 CO In addition to the infrastructural elements of national energy fied after the oil crisis of the 1970s in light of the realization of the 92 AIM 0 ✓ ✓ ✓0.01 ✓ 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 93 14 ASF ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 to grid electricity and purchasing power of the population influ- supply . It was necessary, then, to critically assess the interrelation- Year Year Year GREEN 7 94,95 ence energy end-use and GHG emissions. Figure 1a illustrates that ships between the sources of energy supply and demand, as well as ✓World ✓ Middle income ✓ Bangladesh Afghanistan Costa Rica World ✓ Lower middle income ✓ ✓ ✓ Upper middle income Nigeria Maldives 96 both access to electricity and per capita CO emissions are more to identify pathways for long-term developmentERM of the energy sec- Upper middle income Nigeria Maldives Philippines High income Low income 7 2 ✓Low and middle income✓ ✓ Canada United Kingdom ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 15 Low and middle income Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income significant in high-income countries, compared to low-income and tor . The drive for global sustainability in the 1990s — spurred in d 96 IEA ✓High income ✓ ✓ Belgium World ✓ Middle income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 middle-income developing countries. Most developed countries particular by the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and the 1995 report CRTM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 95,96 can ensure 100% access to electricity, which only a few develop- of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)16 — Fig. 1 | CO emissions characteristics. a, CO emissions versus access to electricity in high-income and low-income countries in 2010. Access to electricity Fig. 1 | CO2 emissions characteristics. a, CO2 emissions versus access to electricity in high-income and low-income countries in 2010. Access to electricity 96 MR ✓2 ✓ 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ing countries can match. In 2010, annual per capita CO2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG emissions and their impact on in low-income and middle-income countries ranges from 3.5–100% of the population. In contrast, the figure is 72.6–100% in high-income countries. b, CO2 WW 2 7 96 ranged from 0.02–15.14 tCO2 in low and middle-income coun- the environment. As a result, further models were developed for emissions ✓per capita for the✓ period 1992–2011. c, CO2 emissions✓ per capita in selected developed and developing countries for the period✓ 1972–2011. d, CO2 ✓ ✓ ✓ emissions per capita for the period 1992–2011. c, CO2 emissions per capita in selected developed and developing countries for the period 1972–2011. d, CO2 97 tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigatingSGM the environmental emissions ✓in countries by income✓ group in✓ the period 1960–2011. The income✓ group classification used here is that from the World Bank list of economies ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 there is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given thatTotal some two-thirds of 3(July 2015): 34 low income, US$1,045 32 or less; 10 lower middle27 income, US$1,046–4,125;8 upper 13 middle income, 10 US$4,126–12,735; 11 and high 7 income, US$12,736 3 or 30 29 28 9 emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans- more. Data is taken from ref. 9. income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmentalaInput types: aspects Qul of (qualitative); Qua (quantitative); Fin (financial); Agg (aggregated); and Disag (disaggregated). bMethods: RE (regression); OP (optimization); EC (economic–econometric, macroeconomic); SM (simulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). cOutput types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co (cost). dEconometric. eMacroeconomic. CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs becamefEconomic necessary, equilibrium. pro- all low and middle-income countries in 2010. This is because 93.3% viding a comprehensive picture of the interrelationships between of Costa Rica’s energy was from renewable resources, of which energy, environment, and climate change. Given that the IEA estimates the growth in energy demand over the developing countries but did not present details on relevant socio- 20 hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have next 23 years will be higher in developing Asian countries than the economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger et al.20 17 As a result, future energy planning objectives of developed and been developed by researchers and organizationsdecentralization in different coun- and competitionrest of the world 17 inand thefuture emissions energy from industry growth regions22 will. Policy categorized EPMscentralized into four types: one energy to system an optimization;intelligent and decentralized one; and finan- 1 developing countries are distinctly different. In developed coun- tries, with various objectives and scopes. EPMspriorities range from in the EPMs need be to critical be in morethe current country-specific 1.5 °C temperature discourse 1, orit is essen- regional,energy systemcial simulation; vulnerabilities power system and in electricity households. market Addressing these in EPMs is nec- tries, the focus today is on reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energybecause system of aof coun- the differencestial into understand objectives how EPMs due reflect to the challengesthe common being faced by socio- and qualitativeessary and mixed to methods. provide They recommended higher reliability further of estimates. energy security, primarily characterized by a shift from fossil fuels try, region or the world — to the more sectoraleconomic — providing projec vulnerability- ordecision-makers conditions, in different and parts geographical of the world. and climaticdevelopment and integrationIn the of innovative following approaches sections, into EPMs the issue of suppressed demand in towards more renewable resources. However, developing countries tions of the energy needs of, for example, transportationcharacteristics. or industry. Indicators Previous relevant work has to reviewed most EPMs developing of different types. economiesSuganthi to address thedeveloping complex interactions among countries disciplines such is as analysed, social followed by a discussion of the 18 21 include22: issues regardinget al. 18 categorized resource energy management; demand projection models assessment based on their science, of ecology,difference finance, and behavioural in socio-economic psychology. Urban et al.21 characteristics such as corruption energy alternatives; the economicmethods but misclassified and technical bottom-up and top-downchallenges approaches. associ- analysed twelveand EPMs political to investigate their stability, suitability for asdeveloping well as their effect on the economy. The 19 BRE Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: [email protected] with the transformationBhattacharyya of et the al.19 analysed energy available infrastructure EPMs for application infrom contexts a and following suggested that critical section characteristics explores of developing the influence of data inadequacy on the

Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 43 172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergyNature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCHNature 2018 eNergy | |172–184 VOL 3 | MARCH | 2018www.nature.com/natureenergy | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 173 175 © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited, Limited, part of Springer part Nature. of All Springerrights reserved. Nature. All rights reserved. ReviewReview ARticle ARticle NaTurE ENErgy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 34 models, quantitative and financial data drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- energy markets in developing contexts. gregated data as input variables. In the case of the output variables, In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 textualChallenges variations, model structures, and and relevantgaps emerging for socio- energymodels), and cost planning (28 models). Model outputsmodels are often normal- economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit inthat end, the we reviewed developing-world thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level context generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models adopted EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection. systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimization methods are widely utilized (13 models), followed affectKumar the demandBiswajit and Debnath supply of energy, * and as well Monjur as the rational Mourshed devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10 models) methods. opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimization methods are mostly applied to energy demand and Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessmentssupply, of theand impact economic of energymodels. policies on the economy and envi- ronment.typology Mostand structure EPMs originated of energy in planningdeveloped models countries and are primarilyEPMs have aimed three at reducingcommon componentsgreenhouse andgas aemissions basic workflow: while enhancingWe conducted energy a systematic security. survey In contrast,of published most, literature if not on all, EPMs. developing input countriesvariables → are underlying predominantly estimation concerned or projection with methods increasing → energyOur study access. focuses Here, on models we review predominantly thirty-four used widely for theused planning EPMs to investigateoutput variables. their Key applicability variations, to however, developing lie in countriesthe type, resolution and find anof energyabsence systems of consideration and infrastructures of the objectives,and that are challenges, more strategic, and nuances(temporal of andthe spatial),developing scope context. and timeframe Key deficiencies of the input ariseand output from theas opposed lack of todeliberation operational. of First, the a low preliminary energy demand study was resulting conducted from variables. lack of access Model andobjectives availability and the of naturesupply. of Other the data inadequacies most often includeto gather the an lackoverview of consideration of the topics ofrelated socio-economic to EPMs that nuances resulted such determine as the prevalence the choice ofof estimationcorruption or and projection resulting methods. cost inflation, thein the methods identification for adequately of two mainaddressing themes: the energy shortcomings demand andin data quality,Primary availability input variables and adequacy, in the studied and EPMsthe effects are quantitative, of climate change.supply, and We energyargue for information further research and emission on characterization models. Electronic and modellingfinancial of and suppressed disaggregated. demand, EPMs climate are numerical change impacts, models and and socio-politicaldatabases — namely feedback Google in developingScholar, ScienceDirect, countries, andJSTOR, the developmentIEEE utilize of quantitative contextual dataEPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websites with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes. energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic (IEA) uman and Energyactivities Information have led to rapid Administration changes in atmospheric (EIA) — werecon- aresectors concerned require with disaggregated increasing data access for to a electricity,better interpretation which is consid- of the 1 searchedcentrations for relevant of greenhouse publications gas using(GHG) the emissions keywords, contribut listed in- eredexisting a prerequisite systems. for development and economic empowerment, 2 Table ing1. The to and keywords amplifying were global categorized climate change into five-word. Fossil fuels groups, and as reflectedIn the case by ofthe underlying inclusion methods,of energy optimizationas a goal in thewas Sustainable utilized in H 10 land-usewhich were change combined (for example, using the through Boolean deforestation operator ‘AND’, and for farming) exam- Developmentthirteen models Goals because. The they current would create CO2 emissionsan optimization per capita loop as of areple, two‘Energy primary planning sources model’ of GHG AND emissions, ‘Forecasting’ of which AND the ‘Input emissions vari- adeveloping way of testing countries whether are low, the oftenselected much output below satisfies the global the definedaverage 3 fromables’ landAND use ‘Organization’ has been nearly AND constant ‘Global’. Based, while on the the emissions search and from the constraints.(Fig. 1c). Hence, In some emission models, reduction especially is not energy always demand on the andagenda supply for fossil-fuelavailable literature, based energy thirty-four systems models increased developed by 50% by between international 2000 models,developing the countries, primary objective even at a iscursory to find level, the least-costexcept for solution a few large for 4 11 andorganizations 2013 (ref. or). institutions Current energy were and selected transportation for analysis systems (Table can2). thecountries energy such market. as China Optimization and India methods. in such models would 5 resultIn addition in substantial to the published GHG discharges journal articles, with and a likelybooks, global manuals mean of renderEnergy the planningopportunity models to test (EPMs) different play policies an essential against role the inleast- the temperaturedifferent models increase were between investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, explore with theira median structure of 3.2 and °C costdevelopment option. However, of the energy simulation sector methodsat global, were national also andutilized regional in a 6 bykey 2100 components. (ref. ). Even The ifreviewed current modelsGHG concentrations were categorized remain based con- on significantlevels by enabling number informed of models. decision-making. EPMs are especially stant,model the objectives world will to contextualizeexperience a thefew subsequentcenturies of analysis rising tempera- and dis- crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and 7,8 12 turecussion. and Modelocean level structures. Therefore, were then substantial analysed reductions to investigate in global their Developingplanning are country required characteristics for decarbonization not addressed. The development in ePMs of 13 GHGrelevance emissions and deficits are essential in developing for mitigating contexts. climate For change. the categoriza- AlmostEPMs started all EPMs in thewere late constructed 1950s and in early developed 1960s (ref. countries ) but (Table intensi- 3) tionIn by addition model objective,to the infrastructural four categories elements were used: of national energy energy infor- andfied consideredafter the oil their crisis energy of the systems, 1970s in economic light of theassumptions, realization and of the systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO2 emis- 14 toenergy grid emissions electricity models. and purchasing Table 2 illustrates power of EPM the population types, and influ-their supplysions per. It capita was necessary, in high-income then, to countries critically are assess decreasing the interrelation- (Fig. 1b), enceinputs, energy outputs, end-use and and underlying GHG emissions. methods. Figure Five characteristics1a illustrates that of shipsthey arebetween increasing the sources in the of developing energy supply upper-middle and demand, and as middle- well as bothinput access variables to electricity were analysed: and per qualitative, capita CO quantitative,2 emissions financial,are more toincome identify countries, pathways whose for long-term primary development objective often of the is toenergy improve sec- 15 significantaggregated inand high-income disaggregated. countries, Although compared financial to data low-income are typically and toraccess. The to convenientdrive for global forms sustainability of energy. Despitein the 1990s the fact — spurred that some in middle-incomeclassed as ‘quantitative’, developing based countries. on the extensive Most use developed of these countriesvariables particularEPMs have by been the Rio widely Earth adopted Summit for in energy 1992 and system the planning1995 report in 16 canin different ensure models 100% access it was to deemed electricity, worthwhile which onlyto include a few them develop- as a ofdeveloping the Intergovernmental countries, they lack Panel consideration on Climate of Change a substantial (IPCC) num- — ingseparate countries characteristic. can match. The In 2010,underlying annual methods per capita were CO categorized2 emissions broughtber of issues forward affecting the issue developing of GHG contexts; emissions for andexample, their impactthe effects on rangedinto accounting from 0.02–15.14 framework, tCO regression,2 in low and optimization, middle-income economic, coun- theof a environment. lack of innovation, As a result, and the further varying models nature were of developed privatization, for tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental there is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans- income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro- allModel low and middle-income countriesObjective in 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding a comprehensiveOrigin of picture development of the interrelationships geographical applicability between ofEnergy Costa planning Rica’s energy was fromForecasting renewable resources, of Input which variables energy, environment,Organization and climate change. Global hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional As a result, future energy planning objectives of developed and been developed by researchers and organizations in different coun- developingEnergy economic countries are distinctlyDemand different. and supply; In demand; developed Output coun- variablestries, with various objectives and scopes.Country EPMs range from the tries, the focus today is on supply reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun- energyEnergy supplysecurity, and primarily demand characterized Economic by a shift from fossil fuels try, region or the world — to the more sectoral — providing projec- towardsEnergy supply more renewable resources.Emission However, control developing countries tions of the energy needs of, for example, transportation or industry. Energy demand BREEmission Trust Centrereduction for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: [email protected]

44 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 174172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Review ARticle NaTurENaTurE ENErgy ENErgy NaTurE ENErgy REPRINT GRANDReview CHALLENGES ARticle Review ARticle countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- a 100 Table 2 | CharacteristicsTable of 2existing | Characteristics energy of existing planningenergy planning models overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. Low and middle income High income Qatar a a b b c c tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 34 models, quantitativeModel and financial data InputModel variables Input variables MethodMethod KuwaitOutput variables total ref. Output variables total ref. United States drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- Qul Qua QulFin Qua aggFin agg Disaag Disaag re OP reBrunei eC Darussalam OP SM eQ eC aF en SM em Co eQLuxembourg aF en em Co energy markets in developing contexts. gregated data as input variables. In the case of the output variables, Bahrain Australia energy information systemenergy information system Russian Federation Canada In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 Belgium E3 E3 Finland 6 67 6 67 textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often normal- 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Austri✓ a ✓ Denmark ✓ ✓ ✓ Palau 68 68 economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost perCO2DB capita, cost per unit CO2DB ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Argentina ✓Slovenia ✓ ✓ 5Malaysia ✓ ✓ 5 Hungary France Mongolia that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. ReviewedEnergy models economic adopted model Energy economic model Lithuania Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Guyana Latvia EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection. Jamaica Algeria MAM MAM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ St. Vincent and✓ d the Grenadines ✓ d ✓ 5Mauritius 69 ✓ 5 69 systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimization methods are widely utilized (13 models), followed Marshall Islands Peru Singapore Angola Namibia e e 70 70 affect the demand and supply of energy, as well as the rational devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10MARKAL-MACRO models) methods. MARKAL-MACRO✓ ✓ Lesoth✓ o ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ Fiji✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Liechtenstei✓ n✓ ✓ 10Brazil ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 e India e Honduras 71 71 opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimization methods are mostly applied toMICRO-MELODIE energy demand and MICRO-MELODIE1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 supply, and economic models. 025507Senegale 51e 00 72 72 TIMES- MACRO TIMES- MACRO✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓Zim✓ babwe ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 typology and structure of energy planning models EPMs have three common components and a basic workflow: Benin Bhutan energy demand-supply modelenergy demand-supplyMauritani modela Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka We conducted a systematic survey of published literature on EPMs. input variables → underlying estimation or projection methods → Tajikistan Haiti 73 73 DECPAC DECPACemissions (metric tons per capita) ✓ Liberia ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 Our study focuses on models predominantly used for the planning output variables. Key variations, however, lie in the type, resolution 2 Afghanistan Tanzania Guinea 74 74 of energy systems and infrastructures and that are more strategic, (temporal and spatial), scope and timeframe ofIKARUS the input and output ✓ IKARUSCO ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 Eritrea Comoros e f e f 71,75 71,75 as opposed to operational. First, a preliminary study was conducted variables. Model objectives and the nature ofENPEP the data most often ENPEP0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ Nepa✓ l ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 to gather an overview of the topics related to EPMs that resulted determine the choice of estimation or projection methods. Somalia LEAP LEAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 76✓–78 ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 76–78 in the identification of two main themes: energy demand and Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, Madagascar POLES POLES d d 7 79 7 79 supply, and energy information and emission models. Electronic financial and disaggregated. EPMs are numerical models and ✓ Chad ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 80 80 databases — namely Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, IEEE utilize quantitative data for calculation. QualitativeMESSAGE-III parameters MESSAGE-III✓ Burundi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 ✓ ✓ 6 Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websites with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for WASP modelling purposes. WASP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 81 ✓ ✓ 7 81 Access to electricity (% of population) energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to 82 82 MARKAL MARKAL✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic 0.01 TIMES TIMES 7 83 7 83 (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) — were sectors require disaggregated data for a better interpretation of the ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ searched for relevant publications using the keywords listed in existing systems. MEDEE MEDEEb ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ c ✓✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ 6 84✓ ✓ 6 84 16 100 40 85 85 Table 1. The keywords were categorized into five-word groups, In the case of underlying methods, optimizationMAED was utilized in MAED ✓ ✓ ✓) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 4 ✓ 4 which were combined using the Boolean operator ‘AND’, for exam- thirteen models because they would create an optimization loop as 35 86 86 NEMS NEMS) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ple, ‘Energy planning model’ AND ‘Forecasting’ AND ‘Input vari- a way of testing whether the selected output satisfies the defined d d 71,75 71,75 per capita

ENERPLAN ENERPLAN12 ✓ ✓ 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ 30 ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 ✓ ✓ 5 ables’ AND ‘Organization’ AND ‘Global’. Based on the search and the constraints. In some models, especially energy demand and supply 2 MESAP MESAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 71✓ ✓ ✓ 10 71 available literature, thirty-four models developed by international models, the primary objective is to find the least-cost solution for per capita

2 25 organizations or institutions were selected for analysis (Table 2). the energy market. Optimization methods inenergy such models emissions would model energy emissions model In addition to the published journal articles and books, manuals of render the opportunity to test different policiesUK against 2050 the least- UK 20508 1 20 8 87 8 87 ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓1972 1978 1984 1990 1996✓ 2002 2008 ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ emissions (Gt)

different models were investigated to explore their structure and cost option. However, simulation methods were also utilized in a 2 51 51 BD 2050 ✓ BD 2050✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 15 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ✓ ✓ 7 key components. The reviewed models were categorized based on significant number of models. CO

emissions (tCO 88,89 88,89 MESAP PlaNet MESAP PlaNet 8 8 model objectives to contextualize the subsequent analysis and dis- 2 4 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓0.1✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 90 90 CO emissions per capita (tCO cussion. Model structures were then analysed to investigate their Developing country characteristics not addressedEFOM-ENV in ePMs EFOM-ENV✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 2 5 91 91 relevance and deficits in developing contexts. For the categoriza- Almost all EPMs were constructed in developedIMAGE countries (Table 3) IMAGE ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓CO ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 ✓ ✓ 6 tion by model objective, four categories were used: energy infor- and considered their energy systems, economicAIM assumptions, and the AIM 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓0.01✓ ✓ ✓ 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 92 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 92 mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO emis- 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ASF 2 ASF 5 93 5 93 energy emissions models. Table 2 illustrates EPM types, and their sions per capita in high-income countries are decreasing (Fig. 1b), ✓ ✓Year ✓ ✓ Year ✓ ✓✓ ✓ Year ✓ ✓ 94,95 94,95 inputs, outputs, and underlying methods. Five characteristics of they are increasing in the developing upper-middleGREEN and middle- GREEN ✓World ✓ ✓ Middle✓ income ✓✓ Bangladesh Afghanistan Costa✓ Rica ✓World ✓ ✓ ✓ 7Lower middle income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 input variables were analysed: qualitative, quantitative, financial, income countries, whose primary objective ERM often is to improve ERM Upper middle income Nigeria Maldives Philippines High income 7Low income96 7 96 ✓Low and middle income✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ Canada United Kingdom United✓ States ✓Upper✓ middle ✓income✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ aggregated and disaggregated. Although financial data are typically access to convenient forms of energy. DespiteIEA the fact that some IEA ✓High income ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ Belgium World ✓ d ✓ d ✓Middle ✓ income ✓ 7 96 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 classed as ‘quantitative’, based on the extensive use of these variables EPMs have been widely adopted for energy system planning in CRTM CRTM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 95,96 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 95,96 in different models it was deemed worthwhile to include them as a developing countries, they lack consideration of a substantial num- Fig. 1 | CO2 emissions characteristics. a, CO2 emissions versus access to electricity in high-income and low-income countries in 2010. Access to electricity MR MR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 separate characteristic. The underlying methods were categorized ber of issues affecting developing contexts; for example, the effects in low-income and middle-income countries ranges from 3.5–100% of the population. In contrast, the figure is 72.6–100% in high-income countries. b, CO2 WW WW 7 96 7 96 into accounting framework, regression, optimization, economic, of a lack of innovation, and the varying nature of privatization, emissions ✓per capita for the✓ period✓ 1992–2011.✓ c, CO2 emissions✓✓ per capita in selected developed and✓ developing countries✓ ✓ for the✓ period✓ 1972–2011. d, CO2 ✓ ✓ ✓ SGM emissionsSGM ✓in countries by income✓ ✓group in✓ the✓ period✓ 1960–2011. The income✓ ✓ group classification used here is that ✓from the✓ World✓ Bank 7list of economies97 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 97 Total 3(JulyTotal 2015): 34 low income, US$1,0453 32 34 or less; 10 32lower middle 10 27 income,27 US$1,046–4,125;8 138 upper 10 13 middle 11 income, 7 10 US$4,126–12,735; 3 30 11 29 and high 28 7 income, US$12,736 3 or 30 29 28 more. Data is taken from ref. 9. aInput types: Qul (qualitative); Qua (quantitative);aInput types: Qul (qualitative); Fin Qua (financial); (quantitative); Fin Agg (financial); (aggregated); Agg (aggregated); and and Disag (disaggregated).Disag (disaggregated). bMethods: RE (regression); bOPMethods: (optimization); ECRE (economic–econometric, (regression); OP (optimization); EC (economic–econometric, Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups macroeconomic); SM (simulation); EQmacroeconomic); (equilibrium); SM (simulation); and EQ AF(equilibrium); (accounting and AF (accounting framework). framework). cOutput cOutput types: En (energy types: — demand/supply); En (energy Em (emissions); — demand/supply); and Co (cost). dEconometric. Em eMacroeconomic. (emissions); and Co (cost). dEconometric. eMacroeconomic. fEconomic equilibrium. fEconomic equilibrium. Model Objective Components Origin of development geographical applicability Energy planning Forecasting Input variables Organization Global Given that the IEA estimates the growth in energy demand over the developing countries but did not present details on relevant socio- next 23 years will be higher in developing Asian countries than the economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger et al.20 Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional 17 decentralization and competitiondecentralizationrest of the world and inand competition thefuture emissions energy in the from energy industry growth industry regions22. Policy22 will. Policy centralizedcategorized one EPMscentralized to an into intelligent four types: and one decentralized energy to system an one; optimization;intelligent and finan- and decentralized one; and finan- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country 1 priorities in EPMs need bepriorities to critical be inin moreEPMsthe current need country-specific 1.5 to be°C moretemperature country-specific discourse , or orit regional,is essen- regional, cialenergy vulnerabilities systemcial simulation; in vulnerabilitieshouseholds. power Addressing system and these in electricity in households. EPMs marketis nec- Addressing these in EPMs is nec- supply because of the differencesbecausetial into understand ofobjectives the differences how EPMs in due objectives reflect to the due challengesthe to thecommon common being faced socio- by socio- essaryand qualitative to provideessary and higher mixed reliability to methods. provide of estimates. They recommended higher reliability further of estimates. Energy supply and demand Economic economic vulnerability oreconomicdecision-makers conditions, vulnerability in different orand conditions, parts geographical of the and world. geographical andand climatic climatic developmentIn the following and integrationIn sections, the of the innovative following issue of suppressedapproaches sections, demandinto EPMs in the issue of suppressed demand in Energy supply Emission control characteristics. Indicatorscharacteristics. Previous relevant work Indicators has to reviewed most relevant EPMs to developing mostof different developing types. economies economiesSuganthi developingto address the countriesdeveloping complex is interactions analysed, followed among countries disciplines by a discussion such is as analysed, ofsocial the followed by a discussion of the 18 21 22 22 Energy demand include : issues regardingincludeet al. categorized resource: issues regarding energy management; demand resource projection management; models assessment assessmentbased on their of differencescience, of ecology, in difference socio-economic finance, and behavioural characteristics in socio-economic psychology. such as Urban corruption et al. characteristics such as corruption energy alternatives; the economicenergymethods alternatives; but misclassified and the economic technical bottom-up and technical and top-downchallenges challenges approaches. associ- associ- andanalysed political twelve andstability, EPMs political asto investigatewell as their their stability,effect suitability on the foreconomy. asdeveloping well The as their effect on the economy. The Emission reduction 19 ated with the transformationatedBhattacharyya with theof transformation et the al. analysed energy of available the energyinfrastructure EPMs infrastructure for application from infrom a followingcontexts a andsection following suggested explores that the critical influence section characteristics of data explores inadequacy of developing on thethe influence of data inadequacy on the

Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 45 174 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergyNature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCHNature 2018 eNergy | |172–184 VOL 3 | MARCH | 2018www.nature.com/natureenergy | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 173175 175 © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited, Limited, part of Springer part Nature. of All Springerrights reserved. Nature. All rights reserved. ReviewReview ARticle ARticle NaTurE ENErgy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- Table 3 | Origin and use of ePMs overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. triesModel in the EPMs, yet specificsDeveloper were not offered on socio-economic CountryAmong of origin the analysed applied to 34 or models,adopted quantitativeNo. of countries and financialref. data drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34in anddeveloping 32 models respectively.applied to27 or models used disag- energy markets in developing contexts. gregated data ascountries input variables. In theadopted case of in the output variables, E3 InDatabase light of this, there Ludwig–Bolkow–Systemtechnik is a lack of evidence-based GmbHanalysis of con- Germanymost of the model’s – outputs are energy (30 models), emission67 (29 textualChallenges variations, model structures, and and relevantgaps emerging for socio- energymodels), and cost planning (28 models). Model outputsmodels are often normal- CO2DB International Institute for Applied Systems Austria – 68 economic variables forAnalysis EPMs in(IIASA) the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit inthat end, the we reviewed developing-world thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level context generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models adopted 73 EPMsDECPAC to investigate theirInternational applicability Atomic and Energy deficiencies Agency (IAEA) for energy Austriadifferent underlying– methods for estimation and projection. systemsIKARUS in developing Formercountries. German Our Federal focus Ministry is on the of Education, factors that GermanyOptimization methods – are widely utilized (13 models),74 followed affectKumar the demandBiswajit and Debnath supplyScience, of Research, energy, * and andas well TechnologyMonjur as the rational (BMFT)Mourshed devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10 models) methods. opmentMAM of the energy sectorUS Department in a developing of Energy country. USAOptimization methods– are mostly applied to energy demand69 and EnergyMARKAL-MACRO planning models International (EPMs) Energy support Agency multi-criteria (IEA) and ETSAP assessments Francesupply, of theand impact economicYes of energymodels. policies on the economy and70 envi- typology and structure of energy planning models EPMs have three common components and a basic workflow: ronment.MICRO-MELODIE Most EPMs US originated Department in of developed Energy countries and areUSA primarily aimed– at reducing greenhouse gas emissions71 while We conducted a systematic survey of published literature on EPMs. input variables → underlying estimation or projection methods → enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing72 energyOurTIMES- study MACROaccess. focuses Here, on models Brookhavenwe review predominantly National thirty-four Laboratory used widely for theused planning EPMs to USA investigateoutput variables. their– Key applicability variations, to however, developing lie in countriesthe type, resolution and find anofENPEP energyabsence systems of consideration and Commissariatinfrastructures of the à l’énergie objectives,and that atomique are challenges, more et aux strategic, and Francenuances(temporal of andthe spatial),developingYes scope context. and timeframe Key60 deficiencies of the input ariseand98 output from theas opposed lack of todeliberation operational.énergies of First, the alternatives a low preliminary energy (CEA) demand study was resulting conducted from variables. lack of access Model andobjectives availability and the of naturesupply. of Other the data inadequacies most often includetoLEAP gather the an lackoverview of consideration Energyof the Technology topics ofrelated socio-economic Systems to EPMsAnalysis that Program nuances resulted such Francedetermine as the prevalence the choiceYes ofof estimationcorruption or and190 projectiona resulting methods. cost 99inflation, thein the methods identification for adequately of(ETSAP) two mainandaddressing International themes: the energyEnergy shortcomings Agency demand (IEA) andin data quality,Primary availability input variables and adequacy, in the studied and EPMsthe effects are quantitative, of climate change.supply,Mesap PlaNet and We energyargue for information International further research and Atomic emission Energy on characterization models.Agency (IAEA) Electronic and Austriamodellingfinancial of and suppressed disaggregated.– demand, EPMs climate are numerical change impacts, models88 and and databases — namely Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, IEEE utilize quantitative data for calculation. Qualitative parameters socio-politicalEFOM-ENV feedbackStockholm in developing Environmental countries, Institute, and Boston the developmentUSA of contextualYes EPMs. 20 100 Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websites with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes. energyPOLES databanks, specificallyFirst developed United by Nations CNRS (France), (UN), andWorld now Bank,by FranceWhile modellingYes energy infrastructure57a in a holistic approach101 to International MonetaryCNRS, Fund UPMF (IMF), University, International Enerdata, Energy and IPTS Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic (IEA) uman and Energyactivities Information have(Spain, led European to rapid Administration Commission changes in atmosphericResearch (EIA) Center) — werecon- aresectors concerned require with disaggregated increasing data access for to a electricity,better interpretation which is consid- of the 1 searchedMESSAGE-IIIcentrations for relevant of greenhouse International publications gas Institute using(GHG) for the emissionsApplied keywords System, contribut listed in- Austriaeredexisting a prerequisite systems.Yes for development and economic empowerment,102 2 Table ing1. The to and keywords amplifyingAnalysis were global (IIASA) categorized climate change into five-word. Fossil fuels groups, and as reflectedIn the case by ofthe underlying inclusion methods,of energy optimizationas a goal in thewas Sustainable utilized in H 10 land-usewhichWASP were change combined (for example, Internationalusing the through Boolean Atomic deforestation operatorEnergy Agency ‘AND’, and (IAEA) for farming) exam- AustriaDevelopmentthirteen models GoalsYes because. The they current would create CO1002 emissionsan optimization per 98 capita loop as of are two primary sources of GHG emissions, of which the emissions developing countries are low, often much below the global average ple, ‘Energy planning model’ AND ‘Forecasting’ AND ‘Input vari- a way of testing whether the selected outputa satisfies the102 ,103defined MARKAL International Energy3 Agency (IEA) and ETSAP France Yes 70 fromables’ landAND use ‘Organization’ has been nearly AND constant ‘Global’. Based, while on the the emissions search and from the constraints.(Fig. 1c). Hence, In some emission models, reduction especially is not energy always demand on the andagenda supply for MEDEE Institut Economics et Juridigue de l’Energie France Yes 100 fossil-fuelavailable literature, based energy thirty-four systems models increased developed by 50% by between international 2000 models,developing the countries, primary objective even at a iscursory to find level, the least-costexcept for solution a few large for 4 (IEJE), Grenoble 11 andorganizations 2013 (ref. or). institutions Current energy were and selected transportation for analysis systems (Table can2). thecountries energy such market. as China Optimization and India methods. in such models would 5 85 resultInMAED addition in substantial to the published GHGInternational discharges journal Atomic articles, with Energy and a likelyAgencybooks, global (IAEA)manuals mean of AustriarenderEnergy the planningopportunityYes models to test (EPMs) different 40 play policies an essential against role the inleast- the temperaturedifferentNEMS models increase were between US investigated Department 2.0–4.9 to of °C, exploreEnergy with theira median structure of 3.2 and °C USAcostdevelopment option. However, of– the energy simulation sector methodsat global, were national also andutilized86 regional in a by 2100 (ref. 6). Even if current GHG concentrations remain con- levels by enabling informed decision-making. EPMs are especially keyENERPLAN components. The reviewedTokyo Energy models Analysis were Group categorized based on Japansignificant numberYes of models. 102 stant,model the objectives world will to contextualizeexperience a thefew subsequentcenturies of analysis rising tempera- and dis- crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and MESAP 7,8 Institutes für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Germany Yes 12 104 turecussion. and Modelocean level structures. Therefore, were then substantial analysed reductions to investigate in global their Developingplanning are country required characteristics for decarbonization not addressed. The development in ePMs of GHG emissions are essentialEnergieanwendung for mitigating (IER), climate University change. of Stuttgart EPMs started in the late 1950s and early 1960s (ref. 13) but intensi- relevance and deficits in developing contexts. For the categoriza- Almost all EPMs were constructed in developeda,b countries105 (Table 3) tionUKIn 2050 by addition model objective,to the Department infrastructural four categories of Energy elements were and Climate used: of national energyChange energy infor- UKandfied consideredafter the oil theirYes crisis energy of the systems, 1970s in economic24 light of theassumptions, realization and of the systems (that is, generation,(DECC) distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO2 emis- 14 toenergyIMAGE grid emissions electricity models. and PBL purchasing NetherlandsTable 2 illustrates power Environmental of EPM the population types,Assessment and influ- their Netherlandssupplysions per. It capita was necessary,– in high-income then, to countries critically are assess decreasing the interrelation-91 (Fig. 1b), enceinputs, energy outputs, end-use and and underlyingAgency GHG and emissions. Utrecht methods. University Figure Five characteristics1a illustrates that of shipsthey arebetween increasing the sources in the of developing energy supply upper-middle and demand, and as middle- well as bothinputAIM access variables to electricity were analysed:National and Institute per qualitative, capita of Environmental CO quantitative,2 emissions Studies financial,are more Japantoincome identify countries, pathways– whose for long-term primary development objective often of the is toenergy92 improve sec- 15 significantaggregated inand high-income disaggregated.(NIES) countries, Although compared financial to data low-income are typically and toraccess. The to convenientdrive for global forms sustainability of energy. Despitein the 1990s the fact — spurred that some in middle-incomeclassed as ‘quantitative’, developing based countries. on the extensive Most use developed of these countriesvariables particularEPMs have by been the Rio widely Earth adopted Summit for in energy 1992 and system the planning199596 report in CRTM Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation USA – 16 canin different ensure models 100% access it was(JCSDA) to deemed electricity, worthwhile which onlyto include a few them develop- as a ofdeveloping the Intergovernmental countries, they lack Panel consideration on Climate of Change a substantial (IPCC) num- — ing countries can match. In 2010, annual per capita CO2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG emissions and their impact on separateSGM characteristic.Pacific The underlyingNorthwest National methods Laboratory were categorized (PNNL), USAber of issues affecting– developing contexts; for example, the97 effects ranged from 0.02–15.14 tCO2 in low and middle-income coun- the environment. As a result, further models were developed for into accounting framework,and maintained regression, by the optimization, PNNL Joint Global economic, Change of a lack of innovation, and the varying nature of privatization, tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental there is a positive associationResearch between Institute (JGCRI)electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of emissions.aIncluding all the One countries notable that utilized exception the specific ismodel. Costa bSeveral Rica, 2050 an pathways upper models middle- have been constructedglobal GHGfor the following emissions developing come countries: from Vietnam, the Bangladesh,electricity, Thailand, heat, Nigeria, and Mexico, trans- 106 incomeMauritius, Indonesia,country, India, which Colombia, had China 98% and accessBrazil. These to modelselectricity are roughly but based per on capita the principles portation of UK2050 Pathways sectors, 4albeit, the with integration some minor country-specific of the environmental additions. Most models aspects lack the of considerationTable 1 | Searched of socio-economic keywords parameters and except associated BD2050 where groups electricity consumption is modeled against various scenarios of GDP and population growth. Political instability, corruption, suppressed COdemand2 emissions and climate changeof 1.7 effects tCO are2, notwell modeled below in any the of these average developing of 2.09country tCO pathways.2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro- allModel low and middle-income countriesObjective in 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding a comprehensiveOrigin of picture development of the interrelationships geographical applicability between ofEnergy Costa planning Rica’s energy was fromForecasting renewable resources, of Input which variables energy, environment,Organization and climate change. Global hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have developmentEnergy information of EPMs. Afterwards,Projection the impact of climate changeEstimation is methodssuch as clean and safe Country drinking water and adequateRegional energy for cook- discussedAs a result, focusing future on energy the effect planning of energy objectives planning of developedon land devel- and ingbeen and developed lighting by because researchers of some and host organizations barriers24. inBarriers different can coun- be a Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country developingopment and countriesfood production, are distinctly as well different.as the role In of developedextreme weather coun- tries,lack of with infrastructure, various objectives low technology and scopes. penetration, EPMs and range poverty, from par- the supply tries,events the on EPMs. focus todayFinally, is the on impact reducing of poor emissions characterization while enhancing of vari- holisticticularly — the modelling high costs the of partial energy or services whole energy compared system to householdof a coun- energyablesEnergy on supplysecurity, EPMs and is primarily discussed.demand characterized Economic by a shift from fossil fuels try,incomes region25. orEnergy the world infrastructure — to the morebarriers sectoral such —as theproviding lack of projecaccess- towardsEnergy supply more renewable resources.Emission However, control developing countries totions grid of electricitythe energy can needs lead of, to for minimal example, or transportation no use of electrical or industry. appli- SuppressedEnergy demand demand in developing countries. Suppressed demand ances. The barriers can also interact to produce a situation where refers to the incapability of the people, community or nation to meet the population cannot afford energy for basic needs because of low Emission reduction minimumBRE Trust Centre services for Sustainablelevels (MSL) Engineering, necessary School for human of Engineering, development Cardiff23, University,income Cardiff, and high UK. *e-mail:unit cost. [email protected] On the other hand, studies show that

46 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 174176172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Review ARticle NaTurENaTurE ENErgy ENErgy NaTurE ENErgy REPRINT GRANDReview CHALLENGES ARticle Review ARticle countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- thea reduced100 unit cost often results in higher demand for energy. For as previously reported33. This amplification in energy consumption Table 3 | Origin and use of ePMs Table 2 | Characteristics of existing energy planning models overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. example, the transitionLow andfrom midd kerosenele income to electricHigh incomelighting in devel- may have resulted from the presence of suppressedQatar demand. a b c triesModel in the EPMs, yet specificsDeveloper were not offered on socio-economic CountryAmong of origin the analysed applied to 34 or models,adopted quantitativeNo. of countriesModel and financialref. data Inputoping variablescountries reduced the unit cost of light by more than 90% MethodThe trends in per capita Kugrosswait national income (GNI) and energy Output variables total ref. in developing applied to or United States Luxembourg drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- Qulbut augmented Qua the consumptionFin of agg lighting services Disaag (lumens) by reconsumptionBrunei Darussalam OP for the eC period 1960–2013 SM of eQ eighteen randomly aF en em Co 25–27 energy markets in developing contexts. gregated data ascountries input variables. In theadopted case of in the output variables, a factor of 40 (refs ). In the case of the technology barrier, the selected countries from fourBahrain World Bank economicAustrali classificationsa energy67 information system Russian Federation Canada E3 InDatabase light of this, there Ludwig–Bolkow–Systemtechnik is a lack of evidence-based GmbHanalysis of con- Germanymost of the model’s – outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 penetration of specific technology among the population can be are illustrated in Fig. 4. In the high-income andBe upper-middle-lgium Finland 67 textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputsE3 are often normal- hindered10 ✓ by the higher ✓initial cost. This cost can be compensated income countries, the relationship✓ between GNIDenmar per capitak and ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 CO2DB International Institute for Applied Systems Austria – 68 Austria Palau 68 economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost perCO2DB capita, cost per unit by high income,✓ and policy✓ incentives by governments (such as tax electricity consumption perArgentin capitaa ✓ Slovenia has a logarithmicMalaysia progression, ✓ ✓ 5 Analysis (IIASA) Hungary France that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models adopted reduction on the technology or subsidies). which denotes that whenMongol a countryia reaches a stable income level, Energy 73economic model Guyana Latvia Lithuania DECPAC International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Austria – Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Algeria EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection. Emissions from developing countries are much lower than the the energy consumptiond becomesJama linearica in characteristic (Fig. 4). In 69 MAM 74 ✓ ✓ ✓ St. Vincent and the Grenadines ✓ Mauritius ✓ 5 systemsIKARUS in developing Formercountries. German Our Federal focus Ministry is on the of Education, factors that GermanyOptimization methods – are widely utilized (13 models), followed global average because of suppressed energy demand. Energy con- theMars casehall Islandof developings contextsPeru with lower middle andSingapor lowe income, Angola Namibia e 70 affect the demand and supplyScience, of Research, energy, andas well Technology as the rational (BMFT) devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10MARKAL-MACRO models) methods. sumption✓ of many household✓ Lesoth needs,o ✓ such as heating✓ and cooking, theFiji increase✓ in GNI✓ boosts the electricityLiechtenstein consumption✓ Brazil exponen- ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 69 India e Honduras 71 opmentMAM of the energy sectorUS Department in a developing of Energy country. USAOptimization methods– are mostly applied toMICRO-MELODIE energy demand and and lighting,1 ✓ may not reflect✓ the real demand.✓ The✓ lack of consider- tially (Fig.✓ 4), because✓ GNI per capita augmentation influences the ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 supply, and economic models. 70 ation of 02suppressed demand can result55 in an inaccurate estimation07 ‘suppressed’Senegal demand51 bye allowing more people to00 access electricity. 72 MARKAL-MACRO International Energy Agency (IEA) and ETSAP France Yes TIMES- MACRO ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Zim babwe ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 typology and structure of energy planning models EPMs have three common components and a basic workflow: of baselines for Clean Development MechanismBenin (CDM) projects28. Moreover, improvedBhutan buying capacity enables consumers to buy and MICRO-MELODIE US Department of Energy USA – energy71 demand-supply model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka We conducted a systematic survey of published literature on EPMs. input variables → underlying estimation or projection methods → More specifically, CDM rules state that “the baseline may include utilize more electronic products, resulting in exponentialTajikista nelectricity 72 Haiti 73 TIMES- MACRO Brookhaven National Laboratory USA – DECPAC emissions (metric tons per capita) ✓ Liberia ✓ ✓ ✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 Our study focuses on models predominantly used for the planning output variables. Key variations, however, lie in the type, resolution a 2 scenario where future anthropogenic emissions by Afghanistan sources are consumption growth. After reaching a stable economic stage, the 98 Tanzania Guinea 34 74 ofENPEP energy systems and Commissariatinfrastructures à l’énergie and that atomique are more et aux strategic, France(temporal and spatial),Yes scope and timeframe60 ofIKARUS the input and output ✓ projectedCO ✓ to rise above ✓current levels,✓ due to the✓ specific circum- energy consumption✓ growth slows✓ steadily , despite the fact that ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 29 30 énergies alternatives (CEA) Eritrea Comoros e f 71,75 as opposed to operational. First, a preliminary study was conducted variables. Model objectives and the nature ofENPEP the data most often stances0.1 of✓ the host party”✓. However,✓ a UNFCCC✓ report encour- the GDP can keep rising.Nepa✓ l ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 a 99 toLEAP gather an overview Energyof the Technology topics related Systems to EPMsAnalysis that Program resulted Francedetermine the choiceYes of estimation or190 projection methods. aged the CDM Executive Board “to furtherSo maexplorelia the possibility In developing economies,d corruption influences policy deci- 76–78 LEAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 in the identification of two main themes: energy demand and Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, of including in baseline andMadaga monitoringscar methodologies, as appro- sions, including the procurement of megaprojects — often resulting (ETSAP) and International Energy Agency (IEA) d 79 POLES ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 35,36 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 supply, and energy information and emission models. Electronic financial and disaggregated. EPMs are numerical models88 and priate, a scenarioChad where future anthropogenic emissions by sources in the selection of higher-cost options that may benefit the deci- Mesap PlaNet International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Austria – 80 databases — namely Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, IEEE utilize quantitative data for calculation. QualitativeMESSAGE-III parameters are projected✓ to Bu riserund abovei ✓ current levels due to✓ specific circum- sion-maker(s)✓ to the detriment of the environment and economy. ✓ ✓ 6 EFOM-ENV Stockholm Environmental Institute, Boston USA Yes 20 100 Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websites with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for WASP modelling purposes. stances of✓ the host party”.✓ These guidelines explicitly✓ differentiate ✓For example,✓ after 2009, Bangladesh’s increased dependence on ✓ ✓ 7 81 POLES First developed by CNRS (France), and now by France Yes 57a 101 Access to electricity (% of population) energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to energy contexts between developed and developing countries. volatile international energy markets for oil imports was due to the 82 MARKAL ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 International MonetaryCNRS, Fund UPMF (IMF), University, International Enerdata, Energy and IPTS Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic None0.01 of the reviewed EPMs considered the CDM guidelines, which growth in for-profit, private sector oil-based generation plants oper- TIMES 7 83 (IEA) and Energy Information(Spain, European Administration Commission Research (EIA) Center) — were sectors require disaggregated data for a better interpretation of the may increase✓ error in future✓ energy planning strategies✓ for develop- ating during✓ off-peak hours that resulted in greater macroeconomic ✓ ✓ ✓ searchedMESSAGE-III for relevant International publications Institute using for the Applied keywords System listed in Austriaexisting systems.Yes MEDEE102 ingb contexts.✓ ✓ c ✓ ✓risks 37. The sub-optimald decision to increase oil-based electricity✓ ✓ 6 84 16 100 40 85 Table 1. The keywordsAnalysis were (IIASA) categorized into five-word groups, In the case of underlying methods, optimizationMAED was utilized in ✓ ✓) ✓generation beyond peak generation capacity requirements has been ✓ 4 37 which were combined using the Boolean operator ‘AND’, for exam- thirteen models because they would create an optimization98 loop as Difference in socio-economic characteristics. Developed coun- reported as ad-hoc and short-sighted35 . 86 WASP International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Austria Yes 100 NEMS ) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ple, ‘Energy planning model’ AND ‘Forecasting’ AND ‘Input vari- a way of testing whether the selected outputa satisfies the102 ,103defined tries have different socioeconomic attributes than those of develop- Evidence suggests thatd reduced corruption can result in a sig- 71,75

MARKAL International Energy Agency (IEA) and ETSAP France Yes 70 per capita

ENERPLAN 12 ✓ 10 ✓ 30 ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 2 ables’ AND ‘Organization’ AND ‘Global’. Based on the search and the constraints. In some models, especially energy demand and100 supply ing countries. The literature suggests that political instability affects nificant increase in GDP; for example, if Bangladesh can enhance MEDEE Institut Economics et Juridigue de l’Energie France Yes MESAP ✓ ✓ 31 ✓ ✓ 32 ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 71 available literature, thirty-four models developed by international models, the primary objective is to find the least-cost solution for the economic per capita growth of a country , especially GDP growth . The its bureaucratic integrity and efficiency to the level of Uruguay (IEJE), Grenoble 2 25 organizations or institutions were selected for analysis (Table 2). the energy market. Optimization methods inenergy such models emissions would model rate of change of stability is lower in developed countries that are its annual GDP growth would elevate by over half a percentage35. MAED International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Austria Yes 40 85 In addition to the published journal articles and books, manuals of render the opportunity to test different policiesUK against 2050 the least- often characterized8 by steady GDP growth (Fig. 2a–e 1 ). However, Figure 5 compares inflation20 with the Corruption Perceptions Index 8 87 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 86 emissions (Gt)

differentNEMS models were US investigated Department to of exploreEnergy their structure and USAcost option. However,– simulation methods were also utilized in a all developing countries do not necessarily demonstrate a similar (CPI) of different nations. 2 Countries with higher CPI scores are less 51 BD 2050 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 15 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 keyENERPLAN components. The reviewedTokyo Energy models Analysis were Group categorized based on Japansignificant numberYes of models. 102 association between GDP growth and political stability, which var- corrupt and more developedCO and in most cases, have less inflation.

emissions (tCO 88,89 MESAP PlaNet 8 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ model objectives to contextualize the subsequent analysis and dis- 104 ies substantially4 (Fig. 2f–j). There are also exceptions.0.1 Despite the In contrast, countries with 10higher levels of corruption tend to have MESAP Institutes für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Germany Yes 90 CO emissions per capita (tCO cussion. Model structures were then analysed to investigate their Developing country characteristics not addressedEFOM-ENV in ePMs negative progression✓ of political✓ stability, some countries✓ have posi- ✓higher inflation.✓ The economic inflation rate is associated with the ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 Energieanwendung (IER), University of Stuttgart 2 5 91 relevance and deficits in developing contexts. For the categoriza- Almost all EPMs were constructed in developedIMAGE countries (Table 3) tive GDP✓ growth (for example,✓ Japan, Germany, ✓andCO Bangladesh). ✓size of the national debt of a country. Energy projects are typically ✓ ✓ 6 UK 2050 Department of Energy and Climate Change UK Yes 24 a,b 105 tion by model objective, four categories were used: energy infor- and considered their energy systems, economic assumptions, and the Developed economies mostly maintain steady progress on the posi- big and require significant investments. Loans from international 92 (DECC) AIM 0 ✓ ✓ ✓0.01 ✓ 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO2 emis- tive side of the political stability scale (that is, they have a political financial organizations such as the World Bank, Asian Development 93 ASF 91 5 energyIMAGE emissions models.PBL NetherlandsTable 2 illustrates Environmental EPM types,Assessment and their Netherlandssions per capita– in high-income countries are decreasing (Fig. 1b), stability score✓ of 0 to 2.5),✓Year while the same parameter is on the nega- BankYear (ADB) and International Monetary✓ FundYear (IMF), and local and ✓ ✓ 94,95 inputs, outputs, and underlyingAgency and Utrecht methods. University Five characteristics of they are increasing in the developing upper-middleGREEN and middle- tive side ✓ofWorld the scale in ✓most of Middlethe developing income countries✓ Bangladesh (that is, Afghanistaninternational banks, Costa Rica constitute a Worldlarge proportion✓ ofLower energy middle invest- income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 inputAIM variables were analysed:National Institute qualitative, of Environmental quantitative, Studies financial, Japanincome countries,– whose primary objective ERM often is to92 improve the score rangesUpper middlefrom income0 to –2.5). In most developed country Nigeria EPMs, Maldivesments in developingPhilippines countries. CorruptionHigh income has been Low reported income in all 7 96 ✓Low and middle income✓ ✓ Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ (NIES) d 96 aggregated and disaggregated. Although financial data are typically access to convenient forms of energy. DespiteIEA the fact that some GDP is the✓ Highonly income socio-economic✓ parameter for demand✓ Belgium projection. Worldlife-cycle stages of energy✓ projects,Middle but income most evidence on its exis- ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 38 classedCRTM as ‘quantitative’,Joint based Center on the for extensiveSatellite Data use Assimilation of these variables USAEPMs have been– widely adopted for energy system planning in Considering GDP growth or GDP volume alone is unlikely to rep- tence and extent are reported for the tendering process , which 95,96 CRTM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 in different models it was(JCSDA) deemed worthwhile to include them as a developing countries, they lack consideration of a substantial num- resentFig. 1 | COthe2 emissionsnuances of characteristics. the economic a ,structure CO2 emissions of a developingversus access coun- to electricitydirectly in high-income increases andthe low-incomeproject cost countries and corresponding in 2010. Access loan to electricity amount. MR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 separateSGM characteristic.Pacific The underlyingNorthwest National methods Laboratory were categorized (PNNL), USAber of issues affecting– developing contexts; for example, the97 effects try.in low-income More integrative and middle-income modelling countries is, therefore, ranges required from 3.5–100% for predicting of the population. The terms In contrast, of these the loans figure are is 72.6–100% typically longer in high-income (for example, countries. decades) b, CO2 WW 7 96 into accounting framework,and maintained regression, by the optimization, PNNL Joint Global economic, Change of a lack of innovation, and the varying nature of privatization, futureemissions energy ✓per capita demand for the while✓ period accounting 1992–2011. forc, CO the2 emissions structural✓ per changes capita in selectedand interest developed rates and are developing higher, duecountries to the for perceived the period✓ risks1972–2011. of political d, CO2 ✓ ✓ ✓ Research Institute (JGCRI) SGM inemissions the economy. ✓in countries The byincreasing income✓ group share in ✓of the industry period 1960–2011. and services The inincome the ✓ groupinstability classification and inflation used here — is thatresulting from the in Worldhigher Bank repayment list of economies cost and ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 97 economic(July 2015): output low income, with US$1,045a corresponding or less; lower rise inmiddle energy income, use andUS$1,046–4,125; emis- increased upper middle national income, debt. US$4,126–12,735; The consequences and high of income,increased US$12,736 pressures or a b Total 3 34 32 10 27 8 13 10 11 7 3 30 29 28 Including all the countries that utilized the specific model. Several 2050 pathways models have been constructed for the following developing countries: Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, Nigeria, Mexico, 9 Mauritius, Indonesia, India, Colombia, China and Brazil. These models are roughly based on the principles of UK2050 Pathways106, albeit with some minor country-specific additions. Most models lack the sionsmore. Datain developing is taken from countries ref. . has the potential to further augment on public finance are the inevitable rise in personal and sometimes aInput types: Qul (qualitative); Qua (quantitative); Fin (financial); Agg (aggregated); and Disag (disaggregated). bMethods: RE (regression); OP (optimization); EC (economic–econometric, consideration of socio-economic parameters except BD2050 where electricity consumption is modeled against various scenarios of GDP and population growth. Political instability, corruption, suppressed world GHG emissions, despite the decreasing trend for emissions in business tax rates, further increasing inflation. Another impact of Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups macroeconomic); SM (simulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). cOutput types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co (cost). dEconometric. eMacroeconomic. demand and climate change effects are not modeled in any of these developing country pathways. fEconomic equilibrium. high-income countries. a corruption-related increase in macroeconomic stress is the det- Model Objective Components Origin of development geographical applicability Along with the stage of economic development, the intensity rimental effect on social and economic development, as money Energy planning Forecasting Input variables Organization Global andGiven distribution that the IEA of estimateseconomic the activities growth influence in energy a demandcountry’s over energy the intendeddeveloping for countries these sectors but didis often not presentreallocated details for ondebt relevant repayment socio-37. 20 development of EPMs. Afterwards, the impact of climate change is such as clean and safe drinking water and adequate energy for cook- consumption.next 23 years willThe beanalysis higher of in GDP developing per capita Asian against countries electricity than con the- economicComparatively parameters low and levels their of effect corruption on policies. in Pfenninger developed et coun- al. Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional 17 discussed focusing on the effect of energy planning on land devel- ing and lighting because of some host barriersdecentralization24. Barriers can be a and competitionsumptionrest of the in world Fig. 3 in andshows thefuture a positive emissions energy relationship; from industry growth that is,regions electricity22 will. Policy categorizedtries have limited EPMscentralized effectsinto four on types: energy one energy projects to system andan the optimization;intelligent economy. and decentralized one; and finan- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country 1 opment and food production, as well as the role of extreme weather lack of infrastructure, low technology penetration,priorities and poverty, inpar- EPMs need consumptionbe to critical be in moretheincreases current with country-specific 1.5 the°C temperaturegrowth in GDP. discourse The coefficients , orit is essen- regional, of energyModelling system corruptioncial simulation; vulnerabilities is, therefore, power system a low and priority. in electricity households. In contrast, market Addressing these in EPMs is nec- supply events on EPMs. Finally, the impact of poor characterization of vari- ticularly the high costs of energy services comparedbecause to household of the differencesdeterminationtial into understand objectives (R2 )how in the EPMs plotsdue reflect are to very the challengesthe high forcommon low-income being faced and by socio- andenergy qualitative projectessary procurement, and mixed to methods. management provide They and recommended higher operation inreliability further devel- of estimates. ablesEnergy on supply EPMs and is discussed.demand Economic incomes25. Energy infrastructure barriers sucheconomic as the lack of access vulnerability orlower-middle-incomedecision-makers conditions, in different countriesand parts geographical as of compared the world. to the upper-middle and climatic developmentoping countries and are integrationIn evidently the of corrupted innovative following with approaches severe sections, impactsinto EPMs on the issue of suppressed demand in Energy supply Emission control to grid electricity can lead to minimal or nocharacteristics. use of electrical appli- Indicatorsand Previous relevanthigh-income work countries. has to reviewed most In high-income EPMs developing of different countries, types. the change economiesSuganthi in tothe address economy the39developing complex. Corruption interactions and its among countries effects disciplines on micro- such is and as analysed, macro- social followed by a discussion of the 18 21 22 SuppressedEnergy demand demand in developing countries. Suppressed demand ances. The barriers can also interact to produceinclude a situation :where issues regardingGDPet al. per categorized resource capita has energy little influence management; demand on projection electricity models consumption. assessment based on In their con- science,economic of ecology, performancedifference finance, in and all behavioural life in cycle socio-economic stages psychology. of energy Urban planning et al. characteristics such as corruption refers to the incapability of the people, community or nation to meet the population cannot afford energy for basicenergy needs because alternatives; of low the economictrast,methods an increase but misclassified inand GDP per technical bottom-up capita significantly and top-downchallenges amplifies approaches. electricity associ- analysedshould, therefore, twelveand EPMs be political anto investigate integral part their stability, of suitability any modelling for asdeveloping effort well in as their effect on the economy. The Emission reduction 19 minimum services levels (MSL) necessary for human development23, income and high unit cost. On the other hand,ated studies with show that the transformationconsumptionBhattacharyya of in et the low-income al. analysed energy and available lower-middle-income infrastructure EPMs for application countries, infrom contextsdeveloping a and countries. following suggested that critical section characteristics explores of developing the influence of data inadequacy on the

Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 47 174176 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergyNature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCHNature 2018 eNergy | |172–184 VOL 3 | MARCH | 2018www.nature.com/natureenergy | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 173177 175 © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited, Limited, part of Springer part Nature. of All Springerrights reserved. Nature. All rights reserved. ReviewReview ARticle ARticle NaTurE ENErgy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 countriesa such as the Austriainformal economy and supplyb shortages were USAsimulation, and equilibriumc methods. OutputUK variables were classi- 8 8 8 overlooked. The study identified a bias towards2.0 industrialized coun- fied into energy, 2.0emissions, and cost measures. 2.0 tries in 6the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered1.0 on socio-economic6 Among the analysed1.0 346 models, quantitative and financial1.0 data drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof)0.0 and corruption in are utilized in 340.0 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used0.0 disag- energy 4markets in developing contexts. 4 gregated data as input variables.4 In the case of the output variables, −1.0 −1.0 −1.0 In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 Challenges2 and−2.0 gaps2 for energy planning−2.0 2 models−2.0 textual variations, model structures, and relevantPolitical stability emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often normal-

GDP growth rate (%) −3.0 −3.0 −3.0 economic0 variables for EPMs in the developing world0 context. To ized; for example, cost per0 unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit inthat end, the1995 we reviewed 2000 developing-world 2005thirty-four 2010 current, 2015 highly used,1995 macro-level 2000 context 2005generated, 2010 and 2015 emissions per1995 unit 2000GDP. Reviewed 2005 2010 models 2015 adopted EPMs to investigate theirYear applicability and deficiencies for energy Yeardifferent underlying methods for estimationYear and projection. d France e Germany f Malaysia systems8 in developing countries. Our focus is on the8 factors that Optimization methods are8 widely utilized (13 models), followed affectKumar the demandBiswajit and Debnath supply of energy, * and as2.0 well Monjur as the rational Mourshed devel- by simulation (112.0 models) and economic (10 models) methods.2.0 opment6 of the energy sector in a developing1.0 country. 6 Optimization methods1.0 are6 mostly applied to energy demand1.0 and 0.0 0.0 0.0 Energy4 planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria4 assessmentssupply, of theand impact economic of energymodels.4 policies on the economy and envi- ronment.typology Mostand structure EPMs originated of energy in planningdeveloped−1.0 models countries and are primarilyEPMs have aimed three−1.0 at reducingcommon componentsgreenhouse andgas aemissions basic workflow:−1. while0 We conducted2 a systematic survey of published−2.0 literature2 on EPMs. input variables →−2.0 underlying2 estimation or projection methods−2.0 → enhancing energy security. In contrast, most,Political stability if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing

Our studyGDP growth rate (%) focuses on models predominantly−3.0 used for the planning output variables.−3.0 Key variations, however, lie in the type, resolution−3.0 energy0 access. Here, we review thirty-four widely0 used EPMs to investigate their applicability0 to developing countries and find anof energyabsence1995 systems of 2000 consideration and 2005infrastructures 2010 of the 2015 objectives,and that are challenges, more1995 strategic, 2000 and 2005nuances(temporal 2010 of andthe 2015 spatial),developing scope1995 context. and timeframe 2000 Key 2005deficiencies of the 2010 input ariseand 2015 output from theas opposed lack of todeliberation operational.Year of First, the a low preliminary energy demand study was resulting conducted from Yearvariables. lack of access Model andobjectives availability and the of naturesupply.Year of Other the data inadequacies most often includeto gatherg the an lackoverview of considerationVietnam of the topics ofrelated socio-economic to EPMsh that nuances resulted suchSri Lankadetermine as the prevalence the choice ofofi estimationcorruption or and projectionBangladesh resulting methods. cost inflation, 8 8 8 thein the methods identification for adequately of two mainaddressing themes:2.0 the energy shortcomings demand andin data quality,Primary availability input2.0 variables and adequacy, in the studied and EPMsthe effects are quantitative, of climate2.0 change.supply, 6 and We energyargue for information further research and emission1.0 on characterization models.6 Electronic and modellingfinancial of and suppressed disaggregated.1.0 demand,6 EPMs climate are numerical change impacts, models1.0 and and socio-politicaldatabases — namely feedback Google in developingScholar, ScienceDirect,0.0 countries, andJSTOR, the developmentIEEE utilize of quantitative contextual0.0 dataEPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters0.0 4 4 4 Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other−1.0 official websites with are typically interpreted−1.0 as ordinal data for modelling purposes.−1.0 energy 2databanks, specifically United Nations−2.0 (UN),2 World Bank, While modelling−2.0 energy infrastructure2 in a holistic approach−2.0 to International Monetary Fund (IMF), InternationalPolitical stability Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic

GDP growth rate (%) −3.0 −3.0 −3.0 (IEA) uman0 and Energyactivities Information have led to rapid Administration changes in atmospheric (EIA)0 — werecon- aresectors concerned require with disaggregated increasing0 data access for to a electricity,better interpretation which is consid- of the 1 searchedcentrations1995 for relevant 2000 of greenhouse 2005 publications 2010 gas using(GHG) 2015 the emissions keywords1995, contribut listed 2000 in- 2005eredexisting a 2010 prerequisite systems. 2015 for development1995 2000 and economic 2005 2010 empowerment, 2015 Year 2 Year Year Table ing1. The to and keywords amplifying were global categorized climate change into five-word. Fossil fuels groups, and as reflectedIn the case by ofthe underlying inclusion methods,of energy optimizationas a goal in thewas Sustainable utilized in H j 10 Pakistan land-usewhich were change combined (for example, using the through Boolean deforestation operator ‘AND’, 8and for farming) exam- Developmentthirteen models Goals because. The they current would create CO2 emissionsan optimization per capita loop as of areple, two‘Energy primary planning sources model’ of GHG AND emissions, ‘Forecasting’ of which AND the ‘Input emissions vari- adeveloping way of testing countries 2.0whether are low, the oftenselected much output below satisfies the global the definedaverage 3 fromables’ landAND use ‘Organization’ has been nearly AND constant ‘Global’. Based, while on the the emissions search6 and from the constraints.(Fig. 1c). Hence, In some 1.0emission models, reduction especially is not energy always demand on the andagenda supply for fossil-fuelavailable literature, based energy thirty-four systems models increased developed by 50% by between international 2000 models,developing the countries, primary0.0 objective even at a iscursory to find level, the least-costexcept for solution a few large for 4 4 11 andorganizations 2013 (ref. or). institutions Current energy were and selected transportation for analysis systems (Table can2). thecountries energy such market. as−1.0 China Optimization and India methods. in such models would 5 resultIn addition in substantial to the published GHG discharges journal articles, with and a likelybooks,2 global manuals mean of renderEnergy the planningopportunity−2.0 models to test (EPMs) different play policies an essential against role the inleast- the Political stability

temperaturedifferent models increase were between investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, explore with theira medianGDP growth rate (%) structure of 3.2 and °C costdevelopment option. However, of −3.0the energy simulation sector methodsat global, were national also andutilized regional in a 6 0 bykey 2100 components. (ref. ). Even The ifreviewed current modelsGHG concentrations were categorized1995 remain based 2000 con- on 2005significantlevels 2010by enabling number 2015 informed of models. decision-making. EPMs are especially stant,model the objectives world will to contextualizeexperience a thefew subsequentcenturies of analysis rising tempera- and dis- Yearcrucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and 7,8 12 turecussion. and Modelocean level structures. Therefore, were then substantial analysed reductions to investigate in global their Developingplanning are country required characteristics for decarbonization not addressed. The development in ePMs of 13 GHGrelevanceFig. 2 | emissions trends and in deficitsgDP are essentialgrowth in developing and for political mitigating contexts.stability. climate a For–j, GDP change. the growth categoriza- and politicalAlmostEPMs stability started all scoresEPMs in are thewere shown late constructed 1950s for developed and in early developed (a –1960se) and (ref. developingcountries ) but (Table( fintensi-–j) 3) tioncountries.In by addition model Political objective,to stability the infrastructural (political four categories stability elements and were absence used: of national of energyviolence/terrorism) energy infor- andfied and consideredafter GDP the growth oil their crisisare illustratedenergy of the systems, 1970s by hollow in economic light blue diamondof theassumptions, realization and red circular and of the systemsshapes respectively. (that is, generation, Straight lines distribution, represent the and fitted transmission), regression line, access visually depictingeffects ofthe exogenous trend in the political data. Data events is taken on from global refs and64,65. national energy mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO2 emis- 14 toenergy grid emissions electricity models. and purchasing Table 2 illustrates power of EPM the population types, and influ-their supplysions per. It capita was necessary, in high-income then, to countries critically are assess decreasing the interrelation- (Fig. 1b), enceinputs, energy outputs, end-use and and underlying GHG emissions. methods. Figure Five characteristics1a illustrates that of shipsthey arebetween increasing the sources in the of developing energy supply upper-middle and demand, and as middle- well as bothinputAmong access variables the to 34 electricity were reviewed analysed: and EPMs, per qualitative, none capita addressed CO quantitative,2 emissions the implications financial,are more historicaltoincome identify countries, data pathways up to whose anfor acceptable long-term primary limit development objective while compensating often of the is toenergy improve for sec- the 15 significantaggregatedof corruption inand high-income on disaggregated. the energy countries, economy.Although compared Infinancial addition to data low-income to are corruption, typically and possibletoraccess. The to variations convenientdrive for in global temporal forms sustainability of and energy. spatial Despitein resolutions. the 1990s the fact — spurred that some in middle-incomeclassednone of asthe ‘quantitative’, reviewed developing models based countries.considered on the extensive Mostthe effect use developed of thesepolitical countriesvariables insta- particularEPMs have by been the Rio widely Earth adopted Summit for in energy 1992 and system the planning1995 report in 16 caninbility different ensure on the models100%economy, access it waswhich to deemed electricity,was found worthwhile to which be prominent onlyto include a few in them develop- as a Climateofdeveloping the Intergovernmental change countries, impact. they Climatelack Panel consideration on change Climate is of Changeprojected a substantial (IPCC) to dispro num- —- ingseparate contexts.countries characteristic. Also, can match. the influence The In 2010,underlying of annual per-capita methods per incomecapita were CO change categorized2 emissions drives portionatelybroughtber of issues forward affecting impact the issue somedeveloping of developingGHG contexts; emissions countries for andexample, their (for impactthe example, effects on rangedintoenergy accounting consumption from 0.02–15.14 framework, differently tCO regression,2 in developing low and optimization, middle-income economies economic,compared coun- Bangladesh,theof a environment. lack of Philippines,innovation, As a result, andMalawi the further and varying India)models nature not were ofonly developed privatization, because for of tries,to in developedcompared ones;to 1.6–42.63 it was found tCO2 thatin high-income this aspect was ones. modelled In general, less theirprojecting development climate status change and and perceived investigating shortcomings the environmental in adapta- thereelaborately is a positive in the reviewed association EPMs. between electricity access and GHG tionimpact capacity and its but mitigation. also because However, of their given inherent that some geographical two-thirds and of emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- socialglobal vulnerabilities.GHG emissions Moreover, come from the the global electricity, energy heat, system and is trans- tran- income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of DataTable inadequacy.1 | Searched keywords Estimation and and associated projection groups quality in EPMs sitioning away from centralized generation and management to a COdepends2 emissions on data of adequacy 1.7 tCO2, andwell accuracy, below the as average historical of 2.09trends tCO deter2 for- moreenergy distributed, demand and intermittent supply within renewable EPMs becameenergy and necessary, land-based pro- allmineModel low the and future middle-income projection. EPMscountriesObjective are mostly in 2010. mathematical This is because modelsComponents 93.3% in system,viding awhere comprehensive landOrigin and ofinfrastructure picture development of the resilience interrelationships geographical to natural applicability betweenhazards ofwhichEnergy Costa data planning Rica’s inadequacy energy can was result fromForecasting in renewableinaccurate estimation, resources, ofor Inputat which least variables isenergy, becoming environment, increasinglyOrganization and climate important, change. evenGlobal for energy planning43. hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have increaseEnergy information the uncertainty of prediction.Projection Also, incomplete data recordsEstimation methodsThe impacts of climate Country change on the broaderRegional economy and envi- hinderAs a the result, assessment future energyof potential planning interrelations objectives among of developed the variables, and beenronment developed require by the researchers consideration and organizations of region-specific in different and coun- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country developingrendering the countries EPM development are distinctly process different. difficult. In developedData inadequacy coun- tries,try-specific with various parameters objectives for resilience, and scopes. adaptation, EPMs range mitigation, from and the supply tries,is reportedly the focus more today pronounced is on reducing in developing emissions contexts while than enhancing that of holisticdevelopment — modelling in EPMs. the None partial of orthe whole EPMs energy reviewed system considers of a coun- the energydevelopedEnergy supplysecurity, ones and40 primarily– 42demand, in particular characterized Economic regarding by the a shift required from level fossil of fuels dis- try,impacts region of orclimate the world change. — toEven the energymore sectoral emissions — providing models consider projec- towardsaggregationEnergy supply more and renewable resolution, resources. as Emissionwell as However, the control provenance developing of data. countries Careful tionsonly energy-relatedof the energy needs emissions of, for andexample, may transportationalso consider theiror industry. future considerationsEnergy demand should be given, especially in developing contexts, to evolution from decarbonization perspectives. the collection of quality-assured data. On the other hand, modelling Energy versus land versus food considerations are also impor- Emission reduction approachesBRE Trust Centre should for Sustainable be flexible Engineering, enough to Schoolaccommodate of Engineering, incomplete Cardiff University,tant. Land-based Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: economic [email protected] sectors are particularly vulnerable to

48 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 174178172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Review ARticle NaTurENaTurE ENErgy ENErgy NaTurE ENErgy REPRINT GRANDReview CHALLENGES ARticle Review ARticle

a countriesa such as the informal economy and supplyb shortages were simulation, and equilibriumc methods. Output variables were classi- 100 United States Austria USA UK Table 2 | Characteristics of existing energy planning models 8 8 8 R2 = 0.33 overlooked. The study identified a bias towards2.0 industrialized coun- fied into energy, 2.0emissions, and cost measures. 2.0 51,200Low and middle income High income Belgium Qatar Model Input variablesa Methodb 2 Output variablesc total ref. tries in 6the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered1.0 on socio-economic6 Among the analysed1.0 346 models, quantitative and financial1.0 data R =Ku 0.5wa0it drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- Brunei Darussalam United States Luxembourg 0.0 0.0 0.0 Qul Qua Fin agg Disaag re OPItaly eC SM eQ aF en em Co energy 4markets in developing contexts. 4 gregated data as input variables.4 In the case of the output variables, Bahrain Australia −1.0 −1.0 −1.0 2 energy information system 25,600 R =Russian 0.90 Federation Canada In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 New Zealand Belgium 2 −2.0 2 −2.0 2 −2.0 Finland 67 Political stability E3 6 textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often normal- 10 ✓ ✓ ✓AustriR2 =a 0.45 Denmark ✓ ✓ ✓

GDP growth rate (%) −3.0 −3.0 −3.0 Palau 68 economic0 variables for EPMs in the developing world0 context. To ized; for example, cost per0 unit GDP, cost perCO2DB capita, cost per unit ✓ ✓ Argentina ✓Slovenia Malaysia ✓ ✓ 5 Hungary France that end,1995 we reviewed 2000 2005thirty-four 2010 current, 2015 highly used,1995 macro-level 2000 2005generated, 2010 and 2015 emissions per1995 unit 2000GDP. Reviewed 2005 2010 models 2015 adopted Mongolia Year Year Year Energy economic model Guyana Latvia Lithuania EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection. 12,800 Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Argentina Algeria d e f d Jamaica 69 France Germany MalaysiaMAM ✓ ✓ ✓ St. Vincent andMexico the Grenadines ✓ 2 Mauritius ✓ 5 systems8 in developing countries. Our focus is on the8 factors that Optimization methods are8 widely utilized (13 models), followed Marshall Islands R = 0.7Peru8 Singapore 2.0 2.0 2.0 Angola Namibia R2 = 0.92 e 70 affect the demand and supply of energy, as well as the rational devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10MARKAL-MACRO models) methods. ✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓ ✓ Fiji ✓ ✓ Liechtenstein ✓ Brazil ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 India Brazil opment6 of the energy sector in a developing1.0 country. 6 Optimization methods1.0 are6 mostly applied toMICRO-MELODIE energy demand1.0 and e Honduras 9 71 1 ✓ 6,400✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ R2 = 0.96 ✓ ✓ ✓ 0.0 supply, and economic0.0 models. 0.0 025507Senegal 51e 00 72 4 4 4 TIMES- MACRO ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Zim babwe ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 typology and structure of energy planning−1.0 models EPMs have three−1.0 common components and a basic workflow:−1.0 Benin Bhutan energy demand-supply model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Thailand Sri Lanka We conducted2 a systematic survey of published−2.0 literature2 on EPMs. input variables →−2.0 underlying2 estimation or projection methods−2.0 → Tajikistan Political stability 2 Haiti R = 0.97 Kazakhstan 73 DECPAC emissions (metric tons per capita) Lao PDR 8 GDP growth rate (%) −3.0 ✓ Liberia ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Our study focuses on models predominantly−3.0 used for the planning output variables.−3.0 Key variations, however, lie in the type, resolution 2 3,200 Afghanistan 0 0 0 2 Tanzania Guinea R = 0.84 74 of energy1995 systems 2000 and 2005infrastructures 2010 2015 and that are more1995 strategic, 2000 2005(temporal 2010 and 2015 spatial), scope1995 and timeframe 2000 2005 ofIKARUS the 2010 input and 2015 output ✓ CO ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Albania ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 Eritrea Year Year Year Comoros 2 e f 71,75 as opposed to operational. First, a preliminary study was conducted variables. Model objectives and the nature ofENPEP the data most often 0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ R = 0.74 Nepa✓ l ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 g h i to gather an overviewVietnam of the topics related to EPMs that resultedSri Lankadetermine the choice of estimation or projectionBangladeshLEAP methods. Somalia d Ukraine 10 76–78 8 8 8 ✓ 1,600✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ in the identification of two main themes: energy demand and Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, Madagascar Philippines 2 2.0 2.0 2.0 d R = 0.76 79 POLES ✓ ✓ ✓ 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 supply, 6 and energy information and emission1.0 models.6 Electronic financial and disaggregated.1.0 6 EPMs are numerical models1.0 and Chad R = 0.89 80 databases — namely Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, IEEE utilize quantitative data for calculation. QualitativeMESSAGE-III parameters ✓ BuGDP per capita (constant 2005 US$) rundi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kenya Xplore,4 Scopus, Web of Science, and other official 4 websites with are typically interpreted as4 ordinal data for modelling purposes. 81 −1.0 −1.0 WASP −1.0 ✓ ✓ ✓ 2 ✓ ✓ Georgia ✓ ✓ 7 800 AccessR to= 0.9electricit0 y (% of population) energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to 2 82 2 −2.0 2 −2.0 2 MARKAL−2.0 0.01 ✓ ✓ Cambodia ✓ ✓ R = 0.87 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 Political stability International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic 2 83 GDP growth rate (%) −3.0 −3.0 TIMES −3.0 ✓ ✓ R = 0.92 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 (IEA) 0 and Energy Information Administration (EIA)0 — were sectors require disaggregated0 data for a better interpretation of the Bangladesh 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1995 2000 2005MEDEE 2010 2015 b c Zimbabwe d 6 84 searched for relevant publications using the keywords listed in existing systems. ✓ 400✓ ✓ 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ Year Year Year 16 100 R = 0.98 2 40 R = 0.62 85 Table 1. The keywords were categorized into five-wordj groups, In the case of underlying methods, optimizationMAED was utilized in ✓ ✓) ✓ ✓ 4 Pakistan Nepal which were combined using the Boolean operator ‘AND’,8 for exam- thirteen models because they would create an optimization loop as 35 86 NEMS ) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 2.0 R2 = 0.98 ple, ‘Energy planning model’ AND ‘Forecasting’ AND ‘Input vari- a way of testing whether the selected output satisfies the defined d 71,75 per capita 6 1.0 ENERPLAN 12 ✓ 10 ✓ 30 ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 ables’ AND ‘Organization’ AND ‘Global’. Based on the search and the constraints. In some models, especially energy demand and supply 200 Ethiopia 2 d 71 0.0 MESAP ✓ ✓ ✓ 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 available literature, thirty-four models developed by international models, the primary objective is to find the least-cost solution for per capita R = 0.98

4 2 25 organizations or institutions were selected for analysis (Table 2). the energy market.−1.0 Optimization methods inenergy such models emissions would model In addition to the published journal articles and books,2 manuals of render the opportunity−2.0 to test different policies against the least- 8 1 20 87 Political stability UK 2050 8 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 100 emissions (Gt)

GDP growth rate (%) −3.0 different models were investigated to explore their structure and cost option. However, simulation methods were also utilized in a 2 51 0 BD 2050 ✓ ✓ ✓10 ✓100 1,000 15 10,000✓ ✓ ✓ 7 key components. The reviewed models were categorized1995 based 2000 on 2005significant 2010 number 2015 of models. CO

emissions (tCO 88,89 MESAP PlaNet Electricity consumption (kWh per capita) 8 model objectives to contextualize the subsequent analysis and dis- Year 2 4 ✓ ✓ ✓0.1 ✓ 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 90 CO emissions per capita (tCO cussion. Model structures were then analysed to investigate their Developing country characteristics not addressedEFOM-ENV in ePMs ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 Fig. 3 | gDP per capita versus electricity consumption from2 1995 to 2013. The R2 values denote the coefficient of determination, which measures how Fig. 2 | trends in gDP growth and political stability. a–j, GDP growth and political stability scores are shown for developed (a–e) and developing (f–j) 5 91 relevance and deficits in developing contexts. For the categoriza- Almost all EPMs were constructed in developedIMAGE countries (Table 3) ✓ ✓ ✓CO 9 ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 countries. Political stability (political stability and absence of violence/terrorism) and GDP growth are illustrated by hollow blue diamond and red circular close the data are to the fitted regression lines. Data taken from ref. . tion by model objective, four categories were used: energy infor- and considered their energy systems, economic assumptions, and the 0 0.01 0 92 AIM64,65 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 mationshapes respectively. systems, energyStraight lines demand–supply, represent the fitted energy–economic regression line, visually and depictingextent to the which trend GHG in the emissions data. Data needis taken to frombe reduced. refs .While CO emis- 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ASF 2 5 93 energy emissions models. Table 2 illustrates EPM types, and their sions per capita in high-income countries are decreasing (Fig. 1b), sea-level ✓rise, as well as ✓naturalYear disasters such as floods, tsunamis, manifestedYear in the transformation✓ of agrarian Yearlands into industries ✓ ✓ 94,95 inputs, outputs, and underlying methods. Five characteristics of they are increasing in the developing upper-middleGREEN and middle- and landslides✓World due to increased✓ precipitation,Middle income all ✓of which Bangladesh are pro- Afghanistanand energy infrastructures Costa Rica in World populated countries✓ Lower with middle severe income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 inputAmong variables the 34 were reviewed analysed: EPMs, qualitative, none addressed quantitative, the implications financial, historicalincome countries, data up to whose an acceptable primary limit objective while ERMcompensating often is to improve for the jected to occurUpper with middle increased income frequency. Developing countriesNigeria are Maldivesshortages of buildablePhilippines land — whichHigh income affects food production.Low income The 7 96 ✓Low and middle income✓ ✓ Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ aggregatedof corruption and on disaggregated. the energy economy.Although Infinancial addition data to are corruption, typically possibleaccess to variations convenient in temporal forms of and energy. spatial Despite resolutions.IEA the fact that some particularly✓High vulnerable income to✓ these impacts because✓ of theirBelgium tropical Worldsituation is exacerbated✓ d when a Middlesignificant income share of arable land is ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 classednone of asthe ‘quantitative’, reviewed models based considered on the extensive the effect use of thesepolitical variables insta- EPMs have been widely adopted for energy system planning in and sub-tropical locations and geomorphology44. For projected sea- allocated to energy crop production, leading to a conflict between CRTM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 95,96 inbility different on the modelseconomy, it waswhich deemed was found worthwhile to be prominent to include in them develop- as a Climatedeveloping change countries, impact. they Climatelack consideration change is of projected a substantial to dispro num-- Fig.level 1 |rises CO emissionsof 45 and characteristics. 100 cm, up to a , 15,600CO emissions and 30,000 versus km access2 of toland electricity the goalsin high-income of energy and and low-income food securities countries — in both 2010. of Access which to are electricity critical 2 2 96 MR ✓ ✓ ✓ 45 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 separateing contexts. characteristic. Also, the influence The underlying of per-capita methods income were change categorized drives portionatelyber of issues affecting impact somedeveloping developing contexts; countries for example, (for the example, effects inarea low-income respectively and middle-incomewill be permanently countries flooded ranges fromin Bangladesh 3.5–100% of, thecor- population.issues Infor contrast, developing the figure countries is 72.6–100% with relatively in high-income large populations countries. b, andCO2 WW 7 96 intoenergy accounting consumption framework, differently regression, in developing optimization, economies economic,compared Bangladesh,of a lack of Philippines,innovation, andMalawi the and varying India) nature not ofonly privatization, because of respondingemissions ✓per to capita up to for about the✓ period one-fifth 1992–2011. of the c ,country’s CO2 emissions✓ total perland capita area. in selectedmodest developed land mass, and developingsuch as Bangladesh. countries for Of the the period✓ 34 1972–2011.studied models, d, CO2 ✓ ✓ ✓ to in developed ones; it was found that this aspect was modelled less their development status and perceived shortcomingsSGM in adapta- emissionsThe production ✓in countries of rice, by income ✓the staple group food, in✓ the willperiod decrease 1960–2011. from The 236 income to ✓ grouponly classification BD2050 considered used here isthe that effects from the of Worldenergy Bank sector list ofdevelopment economies ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 97 51 elaborately in the reviewed EPMs. tion capacity but also because of their inherentTotal geographical and 3(July96 kg 2015): per 34 capita low income, per year US$1,045 32 if the seaor less; level 10 lower rises middle by 3227 income, cm by 2050,US$1,046–4,125; and 8(for upper example, 13 middle land-based income, 10 US$4,126–12,735; bioenergy) 11 on and food high 7 productionincome, US$12,736 3. Before or 30 29 28 social vulnerabilities. Moreover, the global energy system is tran- more.30 kg Dataper capitais taken per from year ref. if9. the rise is 88 cm by 2100 (ref. 46). In the BD2050’s launch in 2015, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Data inadequacy. Estimation and projection quality in EPMs sitioning away from centralized generation andaInput management types: Qul to a (qualitative); Qua (quantitative);case of Maldives, Finthe (financial);entire island country Agg (aggregated); could drown if andthe sea Disag (IAEA) (disaggregated). Wien Automatic bMethods: System Planning RE (regression); package (WASP) OP (optimization); was EC (economic–econometric, Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups macroeconomic); SM (simulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). cOutput types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co (cost). dEconometric. eMacroeconomic. depends on data adequacy and accuracy, as historical trends deter- more distributed, intermittent renewable energyfEconomic and land-based equilibrium. level rises, as the highest point is only 2.4 m higher than sea level. predominantly used for energy planning. WASP is essentially an mineModel the future projection. EPMsObjective are mostly mathematical modelsComponents in system, where landOrigin and ofinfrastructure development resilience geographical to natural applicability hazards Moreover, energy infrastructure in several countries is vulnerable to optimum-solution finder for supply-side expansion and is mostly whichEnergy data planning inadequacy can resultForecasting in inaccurate estimation, or Inputat least variables is becoming increasinglyOrganization important, evenGlobal for energy planning43. sea-levelGiven that rise the47 ,48IEA, as estimates they are situatedthe growth near in theenergy water demand resource, over such the developingunsuitable forcountries modeling but did land-based not present interactions. details on Therelevant increasing socio- 20 increase the uncertainty of prediction. Also, incomplete data records The impacts of climate change on the broader economy and envi- nextas rivers 23 years and seas,will befor higher cooling in purposes developing49. Direct Asian impactscountries of than climate the economicinteractions parameters between food,and their land effect and onenergy, policies. therefore, Pfenninger need etto al. be Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional 17 hinder the assessment of potential interrelations among the variables, ronment require the consideration of region-specificdecentralization and coun- and competitionchangerest of theon energyworld insystemsand thefuture are thusemissions energy related from to industryenergy growth infrastructure regions22 will. Policy modeledcategorized and EPMs centralizedassessed into holistically four types: for one informed energy to system decision-making.an optimization;intelligent and decentralized one; and finan- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country 1 rendering the EPM development process difficult. Data inadequacy try-specific parameters for resilience, adaptation,priorities mitigation, in and EPMs need resiliencebe to critical be andin morethe energy current production country-specific 1.5 °C temperature when vulnerable discourse lands , orit areis essen- regional,used energyEffects system of cial extreme simulation; vulnerabilities weather power events system also need and in electricity to behouseholds. considered. market Addressing these in EPMs is nec- supply is reportedly more pronounced in developing contexts than that of development in EPMs. None of the EPMs reviewedbecause considers of thethe differencesfortial energyinto understand objectives crops. how EPMs due reflect to the challengesthe common being faced by socio- Extremeand qualitative weatheressary and events mixed areto methods.typically provide rare, They yet recommended higher climate change reliability further will of estimates. developedEnergy supply ones and40– 42demand, in particular Economic regarding the required level of dis- impacts of climate change. Even energy emissionseconomic models consider vulnerability ordecision-makers conditions,As a matter of in course, different and and parts in geographical line of thewith world. the theoretical and discourse climatic makedevelopment some of and these integrationIn events the more of innovativefollowinglikely to occur approaches and sections,more into likely EPMs to the issue of suppressed demand in aggregationEnergy supply and resolution, as Emissionwell as the control provenance of data. Careful only energy-related emissions and may alsocharacteristics. consider their future Indicatorson Previousstages relevant of workeconomic has to reviewedgrowth, most the EPMs least developing of developed different types.and developing economiesSuganthi beto address severe 52 the. Slow-onsetdeveloping complex interactions events such among countries as heatwaves disciplines and suchis unexpected as analysed, social followed by a discussion of the 18 21 22 considerationsEnergy demand should be given, especially in developing contexts, to evolution from decarbonization perspectives.include : issues regardingcountrieset al. categorized resource aim to becomeenergy management; demand developing projection and developed models assessment based respectively on their lowscience, of temperatures ecology,difference finance, have a and direct behavioural effect in on socio-economic psychology. comfort-related Urban energy et al. characteristics such as corruption the collection of quality-assured data. On the other hand, modelling Energy versus land versus food considerationsenergy are also alternatives; impor- the economic—methods representing but misclassified a gradualand technicalshift bottom-up in focus and from top-downchallenges agricultural approaches. towards associ- demandanalysed53 twelve, in and addition EPMs political to to investigate the resulting their stability, increased suitability mortality, for asdeveloping well espe- as their effect on the economy. The Emission reduction 19 approaches should be flexible enough to accommodate incomplete tant. Land-based economic sectors are particularlyated withvulnerable the to transformationmoreBhattacharyya industrialized of et the al. societies analysed energy50 . available Industrial infrastructure EPMs development for application is often infrom ciallycontexts a among and following suggestedthe elderly, that children critical section and characteristics the infirm.explores of While developing effects the influence of data inadequacy on the

Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 49 174178 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergyNature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCHNature 2018 eNergy | |172–184 VOL 3 | MARCH | 2018www.nature.com/natureenergy | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 179173 175 © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited, Limited, part of Springer part Nature. of All Springerrights reserved. Nature. All rights reserved. ReviewReview ARticle ARticle NaTurE ENErgy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 countriesa such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation,b and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into15,6 energy,25 emissions, and cost measures. United States tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 34 models, quantitative and financialR2 = 0.92 data New Zealand drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruptionUnited States in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- R2 = 0.92 energy markets in developing contexts. Belgium gregated data as input variables. In the case of the output variables, Italy In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysisItaly of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 Challenges and gaps for energy planning models2 R = 0.97 textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- High income models),3,12 and5 cost (28 models). Model outputs are often normal- economic20,000 variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, costArgentin pera unit 2 inthat end, the we reviewed developing-world thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level context generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed modelsR = adopted 0.93 Mexico Thailand EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection.2 Argentina R = 0.97

systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimizationh/capita) methods are widely utilized (13 models), followed South Africa 625 Philippines affectKumar the demandBiswajit and Debnath supply of energy, * and as well Monjur as the rational Mourshed devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10 models) 2 methods. Brazil R = 0.89 opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimization methods are mostly applied to energy demandBangladesh and Kazakhstan Upper middle Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessmentssupply, of theand impact economic of energymodels. policies on the economyR 2and = 0.99 envi- typology and structure of energy planning modelsAlbania EPMs have three common components and a basic workflow: ronment. Most EPMs originated in developed countriesThailand and are primarily aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissionsCambodia while enhancingWe conducted energy a systematic security. survey In contrast,of published most, literature if not on all, EPMs. developing input countriesconsumption (kW variables → are underlying predominantly estimation concerned or projection with methodsR increasing2 = 0.99 → Georgia y 125 energyOur 2,000study access. focuses Here, on models we review predominantly thirty-four used widely for Uktheusedrain planninge EPMs to investigateoutput variables. their Key applicability variations, to however, developing lie in countriesthe type,Keny resolution anda find tricit 2

anof energyabsence systems of consideration and infrastructures of the objectives,and that are challenges, morePhilippine strategic,s and nuances(temporalec of andthe spatial),developing scope context. and timeframe Key deficiencies of the input R ariseand = 0.84 output from Lower middle GNI per capita (constant 2005 US$) theas opposed lack of todeliberation operational. of First, the a low preliminary energy demand study was resulting conducted from variables. lack El of access Model andobjectives availability and the of naturesupply. of Other the data inadequacies Ethiopiamost often includeto gather the an lackoverview of consideration of the topics ofrelated socio-economic to EPMs Bangladeshthat nuances resulted such determine as the prevalence the choice ofof estimationcorruption or and projection resulting methods. costR 2inflation, = 0.81 in the identification of two main themes: energy demandCambodia and Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, the methods for adequately addressing the shortcomings in data quality,25 availability and adequacy, and the effects of climate change.supply, and We energyargue for information further research and emission on characterization models.Keny Electronica and modellingfinancial of and suppressed disaggregated. demand, EPMs climate are numerical change impacts, models and and socio-politicaldatabases — namely feedback Google in developingScholar, ScienceDirect, countries, andJSTOR,Nepal the developmentIEEE utilize of quantitative contextual dataEPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websitesZimbabwe with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes. energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, Low income While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to

International200 Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader5 context, the supply, demand and socio-economic (IEA) uman and1960 Energyactivities 1970 Information have 1980 led to 1990 rapid Administration changes 2000 in 2010 atmospheric (EIA) — werecon- aresectors concerned require1960 with disaggregated 1970 increasing 1980 data access 1990 for to a electricity,better 2000 interpretation 2010 which is consid- of the 1 searchedcentrations for relevant of greenhouse publicationsYear gas using(GHG) the emissions keywords, contribut listed in- eredexisting a prerequisite systems. for developmentYear and economic empowerment, 2 Table ing1. The to and keywords amplifying were global categorized climate change into five-word. Fossil fuels groups, and as reflectedIn the case by ofthe underlying inclusion methods,of energy optimizationas a goal in thewas Sustainable utilized in H 10 land-usewhichFig. 4 | growthwere change combined trends (for across example, using developed the through Boolean and deforestation developing operator ‘AND’,countries. and for farming) aexam-, Growth inDevelopmentthirteen GNI per modelscapita Goalsof because different. The theycountries current would from create CO 19602 emissions anto 2014.optimization b , perGrowth capita loop trends as of areple,in electricity two‘Energy primary consumption planning sources model’ of of different GHG AND emissions, countries ‘Forecasting’ from of which 1960 AND to the 2014. ‘Input emissions In vari-b, trends adevelopingin way the data of testing are countries visually whether depicted are low, the by oftenselected fitted much regression output below lines.satisfies the The global they-axis definedaverage values 3 fromables’are on landANDa logarithmic use ‘Organization’ has scale,been andnearly AND the dashedconstant ‘Global’. and Based, whilesolid lineson the the denoteemissions search exponential and from the andconstraints.(Fig. logarithmic 1c). Hence, Inprogression some emission models, of thereduction data,especially respectively. is not energy always The demand incomeon the andagendagroup supply for fossil-fuelavailableclassification literature, based used here energy thirty-four is that systems from modelsthe increased World developed Bank by list 50% of by economies between international (July 2000 2015): models,developing low income, the countries, primary US$1,045 objective even or less; at lowera iscursory to middle find level, the income, least-costexcept US$1,046–4,125; for solution a few large for 4 11 andorganizationsupper 2013 middle (ref. income, or). institutions Current US$4,126–12,735; energy were and selectedand transportationhigh income, for analysis US$12,736 systems (Table or canmore.2). Datathecountries energytaken fromsuch market. ref. as 9China. Optimization and India methods. in such models would 5 resultIn addition in substantial to the published GHG discharges journal articles, with and a likelybooks, global manuals mean of renderEnergy the planningopportunity models to test (EPMs) different play policies an essential against role the inleast- the temperaturedifferent models increase were between investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, explore with theira median structure of 3.2 and °C costdevelopment option. However, of the energy simulation sector methodsat global, were national also andutilized regional in a 6 bysuchkey 2100 components. as these(ref. are). Even Thecommon ifreviewed current to both modelsGHG the concentrations weredeveloping categorized and remain developed based con- on significantcharacteristicslevels by enabling number of theinformed of models. extremely decision-making. poor, the pervasiveness EPMs are especially of small stant,countries,model the objectives world the amplitude will to contextualizeexperience and duration a thefew subsequentcenturies of extreme of analysis rising events, tempera- and as welldis- unregisteredcrucial as significant businesses, investments the presence in innovative of large informal energy researchsectors, cor-and 7,8 12 tureascussion. the and inability Modelocean level structuresto cope. Therefore, with were their then substantial sudden analysed onset, reductions to investigate are often in global more their Developingruption,planning and are countrysubsidies. required characteristics forMoreover, decarbonization most not of these addressed. The aspects development in have ePMs sel- of 13 GHGpronouncedrelevance emissions and in deficitstropical are essential in and developing sub-tropicalfor mitigating contexts. developing climate For change. the countries; categoriza- for AlmostdomEPMs been started all addressedEPMs in thewere latein constructed a 1950s reasonable and in early level developed 1960s of detail (ref. countries in the) but literature. (Table intensi- 3) example,tionIn by addition model heatwaves objective,to the in infrastructuralIndia four and categories Pakistan elements werein 2015 used: of (ref. national energy 54). Air energy infor- con- andThefied consideredaftergap in the knowledge oil their crisis energy ofis theexacerbated systems, 1970s in economic lightby the of limited theassumptions, realization availability and of the of systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy ditioningmation systems, accounts energy for 28% demand–supply, of electricity consumption energy–economic in the hottest and extentmodeling to which expertise GHG emissions in developing need to countries. be reduced. Complexities While CO2 emis- such 14 tomonthsenergy grid emissions electricityin Delhi, India models. and55 purchasing. Although Table 2 illustratesIndia power started of EPM the its population firsttypes, energy-effi- and influ-their assupplysions these per .make It capita was the necessary, in energy high-income models then, to countriesin critically developing are assess decreasing countries the interrelation- more(Fig. vul-1b), enceinputs,ciency energy rating outputs, end-use for andair conditioning and underlying GHG emissions. methods.and labeling Figure Five programme characteristics1a illustrates in 2006 that of shipsnerablethey arebetween to increasing poor the characterization sources in the of developing energy compared supply upper-middle toand the demand, energy and modelsas middle- well inas bothinput(ref. 56 access), variables aimed to electricityat were reducing analysed: and annual per qualitative, capitaelectricity CO quantitative, 2 demand emissions by financial, are27 TWh more todevelopedincome identify countries, countries.pathways whose for long-term primary development objective often of the is toenergy improve sec- 15 significantaggregatedby 2020 (ref. inand high-income57 ),disaggregated. a heatwave countries, canAlthough escalate compared financial that demandto data low-income are58. typically Climate and toraccess. The to convenientdrive for global forms sustainability of energy. Despitein the 1990s the fact — spurred that some in middle-incomechangeclassed asimpacts ‘quantitative’, are developing seldom based considered countries. on the extensive Mostin EPMs use developed probablyof these countriesvariables because particularImplicationsEPMs have by been the and Rio widely considerations Earth adopted Summit for for in energy e1992PMs and system the planning1995 report in 16 cantheyin different ensureoriginate models 100% in developed access it was to deemed electricity,countries worthwhile that which have onlyto beeninclude a fewshown them develop- to as be a ofAlthoughdeveloping the Intergovernmental developing countries, theycountries lack Panel considerationhave on Climatelower per-capita of Change a substantial (IPCC)GHG emis-num- — inglessseparate countriesvulnerable characteristic. can than match. developing The In 2010,underlying countries, annual methods whereper capita climate were CO categorized2change emissions can broughtsionsber of thanissues forward those affecting the of issue developeddeveloping of GHG countries, contexts; emissions for there andexample, istheir an impact increasingthe effects on rangedcauseinto accounting immense from 0.02–15.14 damages framework,59 tCO. None regression,2 in of low the andreviewed optimization, middle-income EPMs considered economic, coun- thetrendof a environment. lack in emissions of innovation, As since a result, and1990. the furtherThe varying rate models of naturechange were of is developed privatization,often higher for tries,the climate compared change to 1.6–42.63impact. BD2050 tCO2 in only high-income explored the ones. implication In general, of projectingthan previously climate projected. change For and example, investigating despite thethe environmentalenergy system thereenergy is policiesa positive on associationfood security. between That does electricity not necessarily access and explore GHG impactbeing mostly and its basedmitigation. on renewable However, energygiven that (93.3% some of two-thirds the total inof emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans- the impact of climate change in Bangladesh. Energy demand pro- 2010), per capita, CO2 emissions in Costa Rica increased by 78.6% 4 income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors , the integration9 of the environmental aspects of jectionTable 1and | Searched infrastructure keywords resilience and associated should, therefore, groups consider the between 1990 and 2011 (ref. ). Similarly, higher emissions growth COprobability2 emissions of extreme of 1.7 tCO weather2, well events, below especially the average in ofEPMs 2.09 for tCO devel-2 for energyrates can demand be found and for supply United within Nations EPMs Framework became necessary,Convention pro- on allopingModel low countries. and middle-income countriesObjective in 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% vidingClimate a Changecomprehensive (UNFCCC)Origin of picture development non-Annex of the interrelationships geographical countries thatapplicability between did not ofEnergy Costa planning Rica’s energy was fromForecasting renewable resources, of Input which variables energy,have an environment, emissionsOrganization reduction and climate target change.9. In contrast,Global most developed hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have EffectsEnergy information of poor characterization.Projection Poor characterization Estimation of the methodscountries demonstrate Country a decreasing trend.Regional CO2 emissions from the energyAs a systemresult, futureand its energy underlying planning socio-economic objectives of parameters developed andcan beenmiddle-income developed nationsby researchers already and surpassed organizations that of in the different high-income coun- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country developinglead to inappropriate countries are modeling distinctly of different. future energy In developed and emissions coun- tries,countries, with as various illustrated objectives in Fig. and 1d. scopes. Upper-middle-income EPMs range from nations the supply tries,scenarios the focusin both today developed is on reducing and developing emissions countries while enhancing (Table 4). holisticare also —about modelling to exceed the the partial emissions or whole from energy high-income system ofcountries. a coun- energyInaccurateEnergy supplysecurity, projections and primarily demand affect characterized Economic energy system by a shift planning from andfossil infra- fuels try,Although region Indiaor the and world China — to dominate the more in sectoral emissions — providing growth at projec pres-- towardsstructureEnergy supply more development, renewable especially resources.Emission in However, control the long developing term. Furthermore, countries tionsent, Brazil, of the energyIndia, Indonesia, needs of, for China example, and Southtransportation Africa are or projected industry. 60 energyEnergy demanddynamics in developing countries are complicated because to eclipse global GHG emissions in 2050 (ref. ). According to the of the prevalence and different distribution of the following socio- 2017 IEA World Energy Outlook17, China will start to decrease CO Emission reduction 2 BREeconomic Trust Centre and for political Sustainable parameters: Engineering, political School stability,of Engineering, energy-use Cardiff University,emissions Cardiff, from UK. 2030 *e-mail: but [email protected] still emit 2.8 times more in 2040 than

50 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 174180172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Review ARticle NaTurENaTurE ENErgy ENErgy NaTurE ENErgy REPRINT GRANDReview CHALLENGES ARticle Review ARticle countriesa such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation,b and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- a 100 14 Table 2 | Characteristics of existing energy planning models 15,625 High-income countries where EPMs have originated overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. United States Low and middle income High income Qatar a b c tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 34 models, quantitativeModel and financialR2 = 0.92 data Input variables MethodHigh income Kuwait Output variables total ref. drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models Newused Zealand disag- Brunei Darussalam United States Luxembourg United States Qul Qua Fin aggUkraine Disaag re OPUpper middle eC income SM eQ aF en em Co R2 = 0.92 12 energy markets in developing contexts. Belgium gregated data as input variables. In the case of the output variables, Middle income Bahrain Australia In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models),energy emissionItal yinformation (29 system Russian Federation Canada Italy Lower middle income Belgium R2 = 0.97 Finland 67 textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- High income models),3,12 and5 cost (28 models). Model outputsE3 are often normal- 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ Denmark ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 Lower income Austria 20,000 Argentina Palau 68 economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost perCO2DB capita, cost per unit ✓ ✓ Argentina ✓Slovenia Malaysia ✓ ✓ 5 2 Hungary France R = 0.93 10 Mongolia that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. ReviewedEnergy models economic adopted model Lithuania Thailand Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Guyana Latvia EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficienciesMexico for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection. Guinea Jamaica Algeria MAMR2 = 0.97 St. Vincent and the Grenadines d Mauritius 5 69 Argentina ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Peru ✓ systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimizationh/capita) methods are widely utilized (13 models), followed Marshall Islands Uruguay Singapore South Africa 625 Philippines Angola Namibia e 70 affect the demand and supply of energy, as well as the rational devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10MARKAL-MACRO models) methods. ✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓ ✓ Fiji ✓ ✓ Liechtenstein ✓ Brazil ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 R2 = 0.89 Bhutan Brazil 8 India e Honduras 71 opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimization methods are mostly applied toMICRO-MELODIE energy demandBangladesh and 1 ✓ ✓ ✓ Russia ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 Kazakhstan Upper middle Senegal supply, and economic models. 2 02550751e 00 72 Albania TIMES-R =MACRO 0.99 ✓ ✓ Angola✓ Bangladesh✓Zim babwe ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 Benin Bhutan typology and structure of energy planning models EPMs have three common components and a basicCambodia workflow: Kenya Thailand energy demand-supply model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka consumption (kW Tajikistan We conducted a systematic survey of published literature on EPMs. input variables → underlying estimation or projection methodsR2 = 0.99 → Georgia y 125 TajikistanHaiti 73 DECPAC emissions (metric tons per capita) ✓ Liberia6 ✓ ✓ ✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 Our 2,000study focuses on models predominantly used for Uktherain planninge output variables. Key variations, however, lie in the type,Keny resolutiona 2 Afghanistan tricit 2 Tanzania Guinea Myanmar 74 IKARUS CO 10 of energy systems and infrastructures and that are morePhilippine strategic,s (temporalec and spatial), scope and timeframe of the inputR and = 0.84 output ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Lower middle

GNI per capita (constant 2005 US$) Papua New Guinea El Eritrea Ethiopia Paraguay Comoros e f 71,75 as opposed to operational. First, a preliminary study was conducted variables. Model objectives and the nature ofENPEP the data most often 0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Hong KongNepa✓ l ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 to gather an overview of the topics related to EPMs Bangladeshthat resulted determine the choice of estimation or projection methods.R2 = 0.81 Afghanistan Somalia Botswana LEAP ✓ ✓ ✓ Uganda✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 76–78 in the identification of two main themes: energy demandCambodia and Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, 4 MadagascaHaitir Laos Chile 25 d 79

POLES Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 7 supply, and energy information and emission models.Keny Electronica financial and disaggregated. EPMs are numerical models and ✓ Chad ✓ Burundi Cambodia✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Nepal MESSAGE-III Qatar Japan 6 80 databases — namely Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, IEEE utilize quantitative data for calculation. Qualitative parameters ✓ Burundi ✓ South Sudan ✓ ✓Iceland ✓ ✓ Australia Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websitesZimbabwe with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for WASP modelling purposes. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Barbados✓ ✓ ✓ 7 81

Low income Iraq Norway 2 Access to electricity (% of population) energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to United States Canada 82 MARKAL ✓ ✓ Chad ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic 0.01 Austria United Kingdom 200 5 Germany Netherlands 83 TIMES ✓ ✓Korea (North) ✓ Saint Vincent and the✓ Bahamas Finland ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 (IEA) and1960 Energy 1970 Information 1980 1990 Administration 2000 2010 (EIA) — were sectors require1960 disaggregated 1970 1980 data 1990 for a better 2000 interpretation 2010 of the New Zealand b Comoros c Grenadines France Singapored 84 searched for relevant publicationsYear using the keywords listed in existing systems. Year MEDEE ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Belgium Denmark ✓ ✓ 6 16 100 Poland 40 Luxembourg Ireland 85 0 ) Table 1. The keywords were categorized into five-word groups, In the case of underlying methods, optimizationMAED was utilized in ✓ Zimbabwe ✓ ✓ Estonia Sweden ✓ 4 whichFig. 4 | growthwere combined trends across using developed the Boolean and developing operator ‘AND’,countries. for aexam-, Growth inthirteen GNI per modelscapita of because different theycountries would from create 1960 anto 2014.optimization b, Growth loop trends as Portugal 35 86 NEMS ) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Switzerland ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ple,in electricity ‘Energy consumption planning model’ of different AND countries ‘Forecasting’ from 1960 AND to 2014. ‘Input In vari-b, trends ain way the data of testing are visually whether depicted the by selected fitted regression output lines.satisfies The they-axis defined values d 71,75 per capita

ENERPLAN 12 ✓ 10 Cyprus ✓ 30 ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 ables’are on ANDa logarithmic ‘Organization’ scale, and AND the dashed ‘Global’. and Based solid lineson the denote search exponential and the andconstraints. logarithmic Inprogression some models, of the data,especially respectively. energy The demand income and group supply Guinea-Bissau 2 MESAP ✓ −2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 71 availableclassification literature, used here thirty-four is that from modelsthe World developed Bank list of by economies international (July 2015): models, low income, the primary US$1,045 objective or less; lower is to middle find the income, least-cost US$1,046–4,125; solution for per capita 2 01020304050607080925 0 100 organizationsupper middle income, or institutions US$4,126–12,735; were selectedand high income, for analysis US$12,736 (Table or more.2). Datathe energytaken from market. ref. 9. Optimization methods inenergy such models emissions would model CPI Score (2014) In addition to the published journal articles and books, manuals of render the opportunity to test different policiesUK against 2050 the least- 8 1 20 8 87 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ emissions (Gt)

different models were investigated to explore their structure and cost option. However, simulation methods were also utilized in a 2 51 BD 2050 ✓ Fig. 5 | Comparison✓ of corruption✓ perceptions with inflation.✓ Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2014 versus15 inflation✓ (2014) among the top and bottom ✓ ✓ 7 suchkey components. as these are Thecommon reviewed to both models the weredeveloping categorized and developed based on significantcharacteristics number of the of models. extremely poor, the pervasiveness of small CO

emissions (tCO 88,89 MESAP PlaNet 35 countries of the CPI list. High-income countries where EPMs have originated are illustrated by hollow purple diamond shapes. For detail, see Table 3. 8 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ countries,model objectives the amplitude to contextualize and duration the subsequent of extreme analysis events, and as welldis- unregistered businesses, the presence of large informal sectors, cor- 4 9,66 0.1 10 Data taken from refs . 90 CO emissions per capita (tCO ascussion. the inability Model structuresto cope with were their then sudden analysed onset, to investigate are often more their ruption,Developing and countrysubsidies. characteristics Moreover, most not of these addressedEFOM-ENV aspects in have ePMs sel- ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 2 5 91 pronouncedrelevance and in deficitstropical in and developing sub-tropical contexts. developing For the countries; categoriza- for Almostdom been all addressedEPMs were in constructed a reasonable in level developed of detailIMAGE countries in the literature. (Table 3) ✓ ✓ ✓CO ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 54 example,tion by model heatwaves objective, in India four and categories Pakistan werein 2015 used: (ref. energy ). Air infor- con- andThe consideredgap in knowledge their energy is exacerbated systems, economic by the AIMlimited assumptions, availability and the of in 2000.0 ✓On the other hand,✓ CO2 emissions from✓ 0.01advanced econ- ✓deficient parameters and outcome0 variables are well established and ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 92 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ditioningmation systems, accounts energy for 28% demand–supply, of electricity consumption energy–economic in the hottest and extentmodeling to which expertise GHG emissions in developing need to countries. be reduced. Complexities While CO2 emis- such omies started to decline in 2014, and by 2040, they will emit 0.3 accepted by the stakeholders, the decision on integration versus 93 55 ASF ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 monthsenergy emissions in Delhi, India models.. Although Table 2 illustratesIndia started EPM its firsttypes, energy-effi- and their assions these per make capita the in energy high-income models countriesin developing are decreasing countries more(Fig. vul-1b), times less than in 2000. However,Year CO2 emissions from the rest of the newYear EPM development will depend on the complexityYear of integra- 94,95 inputs,ciency rating outputs, for andair conditioning underlying methods.and labeling Five programme characteristics in 2006 of nerablethey are to increasing poor characterization in the developing compared upper-middle to GREENthe energy and models middle- in world will✓ keepWorld increasing✓ gradually,Middle and income will collectively✓ Bangladesh emit 2.4 Afghanistantion with the existing Costa Rica model andWorld the potential✓ for Lowercontribution middle incom ine ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 56 Upper middle income Nigeria Maldives Philippines High income Low income 96 input(ref. ), variables aimed at were reducing analysed: annual qualitative, electricity quantitative, demand by financial,27 TWh developedincome countries, countries. whose primary objective ERM often is to improve times more✓ CO 2 by 2040✓ than in 2000. ✓ policy development and energy planning. On✓ the other hand, not ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 57 58 Low and middle income Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income aggregatedby 2020 (ref. and ),disaggregated. a heatwave canAlthough escalate financial that demand data are. typically Climate access to convenient forms of energy. DespiteIEA the fact that some The current✓High incomediscourse✓ on economic development✓ Belgiumis that along Worldall deficiencies need✓ to dbe accountedMiddle for income in all model types. Table 5 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 changeclassed asimpacts ‘quantitative’, are seldom based considered on the extensive in EPMs use probablyof these variables because ImplicationsEPMs have been and widely considerations adopted for for energy ePMs system planning in with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), eleven provides an applicability matrix of the identified variables against CRTM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 95,96 theyin different originate models in developed it was deemed countries worthwhile that have to beeninclude shown them to as be a Althoughdeveloping developing countries, theycountries lack considerationhave lower per-capita of a substantial GHG emis-num- Fig.further 1 | CO countries,2 emissions known characteristics. as N-11 acountries, CO2 emissions — Bangladesh, versus access Egypt, to electricity model in high-income typologies. and low-income countries in 2010. Access to electricity MR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 lessseparate vulnerable characteristic. than developing The underlying countries, methods where climate were categorizedchange can sionsber of thanissues those affecting of developeddeveloping countries, contexts; for there example, is an increasingthe effects inIndonesia, low-income Iran, and Mexico,middle-income Nigeria, countries Pakistan, ranges the from Philippines, 3.5–100% Turkey, of the population. A summaryIn contrast, of the potential figure is 72.6–100% considerations in high-income for the identifiedcountries. b defi-, CO2 59 WW 7 96 causeinto accounting immense damages framework,. None regression, of the reviewed optimization, EPMs considered economic, trendof a lack in emissions of innovation, since and1990. the The varying rate of naturechange of is privatization,often higher emissionsSouth Korea ✓per capita and Vietnamfor the✓ period — have1992–2011. a high c, CO potential2 emissions✓ of per becoming capita in selectedciencies developed for the anddevelopment developing ofcountries or integration for the period✓ into 1972–2011.future country- d, CO2 ✓ ✓ ✓ 61 the climate change impact. BD2050 only explored the implication of than previously projected. For example, despiteSGM the energy system emissionsamong the ✓in countriesworld’s largest by income✓ economies group in✓ thein theperiod twenty-first 1960–2011. centuryThe income. ✓ groupspecific classification or region-specific used here is localized that from EPMsthe World follows. Bank list of economies ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 97 energy policies on food security. That does not necessarily explore being mostly based on renewable energy (93.3%Total of the total in 3Projections(July 2015): 34 low of income,energy US$1,045demand 32 orgrowth less; 10 lower in smaller middle27 income, economies US$1,046–4,125; with 8 upper 13 middle income, 10 US$4,126–12,735; 11 and high 7 income, US$12,736 3 or 30 29 28 9 the impact of climate change in Bangladesh. Energy demand pro- 2010), per capita, CO2 emissions in Costa Rica increased by 78.6% moremore. Data significant is taken from populations ref. . have mostly been inaccurate. For Suppressed demand. Detailed relationships between the constitu- jection and infrastructure resilience should, therefore, consider the between 1990 and 2011 (ref. 9). Similarly, higheraInput emissions types: growth Qul (qualitative); Qua (quantitative);example, the 2010 Fin Power (financial); Sector Master Agg Plan (aggregated); (PSMP) projected and that Disag ent (disaggregated). variables of energy b Methods: demand — suchRE (regression); as the elasticity OP between (optimization); EC (economic–econometric, Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups macroeconomic); SM (simulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). cOutput types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co (cost). dEconometric. eMacroeconomic. probability of extreme weather events, especially in EPMs for devel- rates can be found for United Nations FrameworkfEconomic Convention equilibrium. on primary energy demand in Bangladesh in 2030 would be 616 TWh income threshold and buying capacity and grid connectivity — opingModel countries. Objective ComponentsClimate Change (UNFCCC)Origin of development non-Annex geographical countries thatapplicability did not (ref. 62), which was later revised up in the 2015 plan to 860 TWh need to be addressed in EPMs for developing contexts. Energy planning Forecasting Input variableshave an emissionsOrganization reduction target9. In contrast,Global most developed inGiven the that‘business the IEA as usual’estimates (BAU) the growthscenario in — energy a 40% demand increase over in the developing countries but did not present details on relevant socio- 20 next 23 years will be higher in developing63 Asian countries than the economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger et al. Effects of poor characterization. Poor characterization of the countries demonstrate a decreasing trend. CO2 emissions from the projected amount within five years (ref. ). The updated projected Dynamics between political stability and economic growth. Not Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional 17 energy system and its underlying socio-economic parameters can middle-income nations already surpassed thatdecentralization of the high-income and competitiondemandrest of the can world be ascribed inand thefuture to flawed emissions energy assumptions from industry growth of the regions probability22 will. Policy allcategorized developing EPMscentralized countries into four share types: similar one energy political to system an stability. optimization;intelligent If there and decentralized one; and finan- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country 1 lead to inappropriate modeling of future energy and emissions countries, as illustrated in Fig. 1d. Upper-middle-incomepriorities nations in EPMs need ofbe to demandcritical be in growth morethe current and the country-specific 1.5 lack °C temperatureof the consideration discourse of , suppressed orit is essen- regional, existsenergy an system evidentcial simulation; correlation vulnerabilities powerbetween system economic and ingrowth electricity households. and marketpoliti- Addressing these in EPMs is nec- supply scenarios in both developed and developing countries (Table 4). are also about to exceed the emissions from high-incomebecause countries. of the differencesdemand.tial into understand objectives Policies based how EPMson inaccuratedue reflect to theprojections challengesthe common are being unlikely faced to bybe socio- caland stability, qualitative itessary should and mixed ideally to methods. provide be explicitly They modeledrecommended higher in the reliability further EPM. of estimates. InaccurateEnergy supply projections and demand affect Economic energy system planning and infra- Although India and China dominate in emissionseconomic growth at pres- vulnerability orefficientdecision-makers conditions, and sustainable. in different and parts geographical of the world. and climaticWheredevelopment the relationship and integrationIn is thenot ofconclusive, innovative following further approaches research sections, into needs EPMs to the issue of suppressed demand in structureEnergy supply development, especiallyEmission in control the long term. Furthermore, ent, Brazil, India, Indonesia, China and Southcharacteristics. Africa are projected Indicators ThePrevious relevant treatment work of has tothe reviewed identified most EPMs deficiencies developing of different in energy types. planning economiesSuganthi beto addressconducted, thedeveloping complexeven for interactionsimplicit or proxy among countries considerations. disciplines such is as analysed, social followed by a discussion of the 18 21 60 22 energyEnergy demanddynamics in developing countries are complicated because to eclipse global GHG emissions in 2050 (ref.include ). According: to issuesthe regardingmodelset al. categorized resource needs to consider energy management; thedemand local projectioncontexts in models developing assessment based countries, on their science, of ecology,difference finance, and behavioural in socio-economic psychology. Urban et al. characteristics such as corruption 17 methods but misclassified bottom-up and top-down approaches. analysed twelve EPMs to investigate their suitability for developing of the prevalence and different distribution of the following socio- 2017 IEA World Energy Outlook , China willenergy start to decrease alternatives; CO2 the economicboth regarding integration and technical with existing models challenges and for the devel- associ-Influence of corruptionand political on the energy stability, economy. The treatmentas well of as their effect on the economy. The Emission reduction 19 economic and political parameters: political stability, energy-use emissions from 2030 but will still emit 2.8 timesated more with in 2040 than the transformationopmentBhattacharyya of new of ones. et the al. In analysedcases energy where available empirical infrastructure EPMs relationships for application between infrom corruptioncontexts a and in following suggestedmodels should that criticalbe section context characteristics specific. explores Multiplier-based of developing the influence of data inadequacy on the

Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 51 174180 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergyNature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCHNature 2018 eNergy | |172–184 VOL 3 | MARCH | 2018www.nature.com/natureenergy | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 173181 175 © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited, Limited, part of Springer part Nature. of All Springerrights reserved. Nature. All rights reserved. ReviewReview ARticle ARticle NaTurE ENErgy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- Table 4 | effect of poor characterizations of energy systems and Table 5 | applicability of suggested variables in existing ePMs overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. economies of developing countries in energy planning models tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic VariablesAmong the analysedtypes 34 of models, models quantitative and financial data Model typologies effect of poor characterizations drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 andenergy 32 models respectively.energy 27energy models usedenergy disag- energyMathematical markets procedures in developing contexts. gregated data as inputinformation variables. Indemand– the case ofeconomic the output emissions variables, In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29 Regression, economic, Fragmented or inaccurate data and systems supply model model textualChallenges variations, model structures, and and relevantgaps emerging for socio- energymodels), and cost planning (28 models). Model outputsmodels are often normal- simulations and accounting relations in the calculation can prompt model economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit frameworks incorrect results inthat end, the we reviewed developing-world thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level context generated,Political stability and emissions per unit ✓GDP. Reviewed✓ models adopted EPMsOptimization to investigate their applicabilityCalculated bestand solutionsdeficiencies may befor energy differentCorruption underlying methods for estimation✓ and projection. incorrect, because of the inadequate systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that OptimizationSuppressed demand methods✓ are widely✓ utilized (13✓ models),✓ followed affectKumar the demandBiswajit and Debnath supply interpretationof energy, * and as ofwell Monjureconomy as the rationaland Mourshed resources devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10 models) methods. framework Climate change ✓ ✓ ✓ opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimizationimpacts methods are mostly applied to energy demand and EnergyEquilibrium planning models (EPMs)Overlooking support the disequilibrium multi-criteria of assessmentssupply, of theand impact economic of energymodels. policies on the economy and envi- ronment.typology Mostand structure EPMs originated ofbusiness energy in sectors planningdeveloped and overestimatingmodels countries and are primarilyEPMs have aimed three at reducingcommon componentsgreenhouse andgas aemissions basic workflow: while business sector impacts that prompt enhancingWe conducted energy a systematic security. survey In contrast,of published most, literature if not on all, EPMs. developing input countriesvariables → are underlying predominantly estimation concerned or projection with methods increasing → contorted results21 energyOur study access. focuses Here, on models we review predominantly thirty-four used widely for theused planning EPMs to investigateouroutput analysis variables. theirof 34 Key applicability EPMs variations, revealed to however, severaldeveloping lieimportant in countriesthe type, shortcomings resolution and find anofModelling energyabsence systemsapproaches of consideration and infrastructures of the objectives,and that are challenges, more strategic, and nuancesfor(temporal the developing of andthe spatial),developing context. scope context. and timeframe Key deficiencies of the input ariseand output from theasTop-down opposed lack of model todeliberation operational. of First, theIncorrect a low preliminary energyor incomplete demand study linkage was resulting conducted or data in from variables. lackA keyof access findingModel and objectivesfrom availability our Reviewand the of is naturesupply. the lack of Other theof considerationdata inadequacies most often in includeto gather the an lackoverview of consideration of themodel topics frameworks ofrelated socio-economic to results EPMs in thatincorrectly nuances resulted such thedetermine as analysed the prevalence the EPMs choice of ofof the estimationcorruption unique socioeconomic or and projection resulting methods. characteristics cost inflation, in thein the methods identification for adequately of twocomputed mainaddressing themes: outputs the energy shortcomings demand andin data developing quality,Primary availability countries input variables such and as adequacy, in suppressed the studied and demand, EPMsthe effects arecorruption, quantitative, of climate and change.supply,Bottom-up and We model energyargue for information furtherInfluenced research and emission by inappropriate on characterization models. or Electronic and modellingpoliticalfinancial instability.of and suppressed disaggregated. Disregarding demand, EPMs suppressed climate are numerical change energy impacts, demand models and andcan socio-politicaldatabases — namely feedback Google in developingincompleteScholar, ScienceDirect, relations countries, and information andJSTOR, the developmentIEEE potentiallyutilize of quantitative contextual underestimate dataEPMs. total for calculation.demand, rendering Qualitative future parameters planning Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science,in the andframeworks, other official leading to websites incorrect with inaccurateare typically and interpreted ineffective, as especially ordinal for data long-horizon for modelling planning purposes. such energy databanks, specificallyresults United Nations (UN), World Bank, asWhile 2050 modelling pathways. energyCorruption infrastructure is a complex in asocio-economic holistic approach factor to InternationalHybrid model Monetary FundHybrid (IMF), models International could lead Energy to inconclusive Agency andcover can a broaderincrease context,capital and the operation supply, demand costs of and energy socio-economic projects and (IEA) uman and Energyactivities Information have led to rapid Administration changes in atmospheric (EIA) — werecon- areinfrastructuresectors concerned require inwith disaggregated some increasing developing data access forcountries, to a electricity,better affectinginterpretation which sustainabil is consid- of the- results due to inappropriate interrelations1 searchedcentrations for relevant of greenhouse publications gas using(GHG) the emissions keywords, contribut listed in- eredity.existing Also, a prerequisite systems. the economy for isdevelopment sometimes linked and economic with political empowerment, instability, of different parts of the 2system with Table ing1. The to and keywords amplifying were global categorized climate change into five-word. Fossil fuels groups, and aswhich reflectedIn the on caseits by own ofthe underlyingcan inclusion affect energy methods,of energy infrastructure optimizationas a goal inresilience. thewas Sustainable utilized in H economic and scientific data 10 land-usewhich were change combined (for example, using the through Boolean deforestation operator ‘AND’, and for farming) exam- DevelopmentthirteenApart models from Goals because the . developing-context-specific The they current would create CO2 emissionsan optimization socio-economic per capita loop as of areple, two‘Energy primary planning sources model’ of GHG AND emissions, ‘Forecasting’ of which AND the ‘Input emissions vari- deficienciesadeveloping way of testing countries in the whether current are low, the EPMs, oftenselected climatemuch output below change satisfies the impact global the ondefinedaverage land 3 fromables’modelling landAND willuse ‘Organization’ hasbe time been and nearly AND cost constant effective‘Global’. Based,if while a significant on the the emissions search relationship and from the availabilityconstraints.(Fig. 1c). Hence, andIn some food emission models,production reduction especially is likelyis not energy toalways alter demand on the the dynamics andagenda supply for of fossil-fuelavailableexists between literature, based corruption energy thirty-four systems and outcomemodels increased developed indicators. by 50% by In between international cases where 2000 energy–food–emissionsmodels,developing the countries, primary objective even interactions, at a iscursory to find especially level, the least-costexcept in the for highly solution a few popu- large for 4 11 andorganizationsthe relationship 2013 (ref. or is). institutionsnot Current apparent energy were or cannot and selected transportation be mathematically for analysis systems (Table formu- can2). latedthecountries energy developing such market. as China countries. Optimization and India Increasing methods. penetration in such models of distributed would 5 resultlatedIn addition conveniently, in substantial to the published underlying GHG discharges journal causes articles can, with be andinvestigated a likelybooks, global manuals further. mean of energyrenderEnergy the resources planningopportunity and models bioenergy to test (EPMs) different goals play require policies an essential that against EPMs role the should inleast- the temperaturedifferent models increase were between investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, explore with theira median structure of 3.2 and °C nowcostdevelopment option. consider However, of land-based the energy simulation interactions sector methodsat global, between were national energy,also andutilized food, regional in and a 6 byDatakey 2100 components. gathering, (ref. ). Evenvalidation The ifreviewed current and modelssharing.GHG concentrations were A structured categorized remaindata based gather- con- on environmentsignificantlevels by enabling number for future informed of models. planning decision-making. and development. EPMs are especially stant,ingmodel and the objectives sharing world systemwill to contextualizeexperience can contribute a thefew subsequentcenturiesto the enhanced of analysis rising accuracy tempera- and dis- of crucialCountry-specific as significant investments trends in GHG in innovative emissions energy are also research evolving. and 7,8 12 turethecussion. EPMs, and Modelocean as well level structures as the. Therefore,effectiveness were then substantial of analysed the resulting reductions to investigate policies. in global their Collectively,Developingplanning are middle-income country required characteristics for decarbonization and upper-income not addressed. The countries development in now ePMs emit of 13 GHGrelevance emissions and deficits are essential in developing for mitigating contexts. climate For change. the categoriza- moreAlmostEPMs than started all EPMshigh-income in thewere late constructed countries,1950s and in andearly developed this 1960s has (ref. beencountries the) but case (Table intensi- since 3) ClimatetionIn by addition modelchange objective,to impacts the infrastructural fouron energy categories infrastructure elements were used: of national and energy systems. energy infor- 2007.andfied consideredafter Emissions the oil their crisisare energyincreasing of the systems, 1970s at a in mucheconomic light faster of theassumptions, rate realization in developing and of the systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy Dependingmation systems, on the energy country-specific demand–supply, impacts energy–economic of climate change andon economiesextent to which than GHG previously emissions projected. need to be EPMs reduced. can While play CO an 2essen emis-- 14 toenergy grid emissions systems electricity and models. and infrastructure, purchasing Table 2 illustrates power its degree of EPM the of populationincorporation types, and influ-their in tialsupplysions role per . inIt capita was setting necessary, in high-income emerging then, economies to countries critically on are assess a decreasing low-carbon the interrelation- (Fig. pathway 1b), enceEPMsinputs, energy can outputs, be end-use varied. and andIf underlying the GHG projected emissions. methods. climate Figure Five change characteristics1a illustrates has a signifi- that of shipswhilethey arebetween enhancing increasing the access sources in the to of energy. developing energy Most supply upper-middle reviewed and demand, EPMs and aswere middle- well ini as- bothcantinput effect access variables on to future electricity were energy analysed: and infrastructure per qualitative, capita COand quantitative,2 systems, emissions it should financial,are more be totiallyincome identify intended countries, pathways for their whose for country long-term primary or region development objective of origin often of in the isthe toenergy developed improve sec- 15 significantmodelledaggregated explicitly, inand high-income disaggregated. especially countries, forAlthough land-based compared financial variables to data low-income suchare typically as land and torworld.access. The toTheir convenientdrive later for use global formsin developingsustainability of energy. countries Despitein the 1990s demonstrated the fact — spurred that sometheir in middle-incomeuse,classed distributed as ‘quantitative’, energy developing generation,based countries. on the food extensive Mostproduction use developed of andthese bioenergy. countriesvariables particularpotentialEPMs have forby been informedthe Rio widely Earth decision-making adopted Summit for in energy 1992 on energy and system the systems planning1995 report plan in- 16 canInin different most ensure cases, models 100% the access it explicit was to deemed electricity, modelling worthwhile which of climate-change onlyto include a few them develop- impacts as a ofning.developing the However, Intergovernmental countries, the identified they lack Panel shortcomings consideration on Climate in of Change this a substantial Review (IPCC) suggest num- — ingwouldseparate countries require characteristic. can further match. investigationsThe In 2010,underlying annual on methods theper capita interactions were CO categorized2 emissions between thatbroughtber ofthe issues formulationforward affecting the ofissue developing localized of GHG EPMs contexts; emissions are essential for andexample, theirnot only impactthe foreffects theon rangedrelatedinto accounting variables. from 0.02–15.14 framework, tCO regression,2 in low and optimization, middle-income economic, coun- countriestheof a environment. lack concerned of innovation, As but a result,also and for the further a low-carbon varying models nature pathway were of developed privatization,for the world. for tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental thereOutlook is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impactReceived: and 11 its July mitigation. 2016; Accepted: However, 22 givenJanuary that 2018; some two-thirds of emissions.Distinct differences One notable exist exception between isthe Costa evolution Rica, ofan energyupper middle-systems globalPublished GHG online: emissions 6 March come 2018 from the electricity, heat, and trans- income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of inTable developing 1 | Searched and developedkeywords and countries, associated as a groups response to varying CO emissions of 1.7 tCO , well below the average of 2.09 tCO for energyreferences demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro- social,2 technical, economic2 and environmental stimuli. Developed2 1. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, allcountriesModel low and primarily middle-income aim to reduce countriesObjective climate-affecting in 2010. This is GHG because emissionsComponents 93.3% vidingPachauri, a comprehensive R. K. &Origin Meyer of L. picture development A.) (IPCC, of the2015). interrelationships geographical applicability between ofwhileEnergy Costa enhancing planning Rica’s energyenergy wassecurity. fromForecasting In renewable contrast, developing resources, countries of Input which variables energy, 2. Raupach, environment, M. R. etOrganization al. and Global climate and regional change. driversGlobal of accelerating CO2 hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Overemissions. the past Proc. four Natl Acad.decades, Sci. USA a substantial 104, 10288–10293 number (2007). of EPMs have areEnergy predominantly information concernedProjection with increasing access to conven-Estimation methods Country Regional tionalAs aforms result, of future energy energy through planning infrastructure objectives expansion, of developed which and is been 3. Ledeveloped Quéré, C. etby al. researchers Trends in the and sources organizations and sinks of carbonin different dioxide. coun- Nat. Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variablesGeosci. 2, 831–836 (2009). Country developingoften seen as countries a prerequisite are distinctly for economic different. and Insocial developed development. coun- tries, with various objectives and scopes. EPMs range from the supply 4. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights (IEA, 2015). tries,Despite the the focus differences today is in on overall reducing policy emissions goals, EPMs while play enhancing a cen- holistic 5. IPCC — Climate modelling Change the 2014: partial Mitigation or whole of Climate energy Change system Change of (edsa coun- energytralEnergy role supplysecurity, in energy and primarily demand sector development characterized Economic and by transformationa shift from fossil in fuelsboth try, regionEdenhofer, or theO. et world al.) (Cambridge — to the Univ. more Press, sectoral 2014). — providing projec- towardsdevelopingEnergy supply more and renewable developed resources. countries.Emission However, control Current developing EPMs were countries mostly tions 6. Raftery, of the energyA. E., Zimmer, needs of,A., forFrierson, example, D. M. transportationW., Startz, R. & Liu, or P.industry. Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 637–641 (2017). createdEnergy demand in developed countries, often with the assumptions and 7. Ramanathan, V. & Feng, Y. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic biases of the country and region in which they were developed. interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead. Proc. BREEmission Trust Centrereduction for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: [email protected] Recognizing the importance of EPMs in shaping the energy future, Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 14245–14250 (2008).

52 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 174182172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Review ARticle NaTurENaTurE ENErgy ENErgy NaTurE ENErgy REPRINT GRANDReview CHALLENGES ARticle Review ARticle countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi- 8.a 10 Clark,0 P. U. et al. Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for 43. McLellan, B., Zhang, Q., Farzaneh, H., Utama, N. A. & Ishihara, K. N. Table 4 | effect of poor characterizations of energy systems and Table 5 | applicability of suggested variablesTable in existing 2 ePMs | Characteristics ofmulti-millennial existing climate energy and sea-level change.planning Nat. Clim. Change models 6, Resilience, sustainability and risk management: a focus on energy. overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures. Low and middle income High income Qatar economies of developing countries in energy planning models 360–369 (2016). a Challengesb 3, 153–182 (2012). c tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic VariablesAmong the analysedtypes 34 of models, models quantitativeModel and financial data Input 9. World variables Bank DataBank (2017); http://go.nature.com/2DZdFDH Method 44. Alcántara-Ayala, I. Geomorphology,Kuwait natural hazards, vulnerability and Output variables total ref. Model typologies effect of poor characterizations United States Luxembourg drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 andenergy 32 models respectively.energy 27energy models usedenergy disag- Qul 10. IEA Energy Qua Access OutlookFin 2017: From aggPoverty to Prosperity Disaag (International reBruneiprevention Darussalam OP of natural eC disasters in developing SM countries. eQ Geomorphology aF 47, en em Co energyMathematical markets procedures in developing contexts. gregated data as inputinformation variables. Indemand– the case ofeconomic the output emissions variables, Energy Agency, 2017). 107–124 (2002). Bahrain Australia energy information system 11. Climate Action Tracker: Rating Countries (CAT, 2014); http://go.nature. 45. Butzengeiger, S. & RussianHorstmann, Federation B. Sea Level Rise in BangladeshCanada and the In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s systemsoutputs are energysupply (30 models),model emissionmodel (29 Belgium Regression, economic, Fragmented or inaccurate data and com/2GvblCB Netherlands: One Phenomenon,Finland Many Consequences (Germanwatch, 2004). 67 textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputsE3 are often normal- 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ Denmark ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 simulations and accounting relations in the calculation can prompt model 12. Amorim, F. et al. Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in 46. Workshop on Climate Change Impact Modeling:Austria Report and Presentations Palau 68 economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost perCO2DB capita, cost per unit Portugal:✓ A TIMES (The✓ Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based (Climate Change Cell, DepartmentArgentina ✓of SloveniaEnvironment, Bangladesh,Malaysia 2006). ✓ ✓ 5 frameworks incorrect results Political stability ✓ ✓ Hungary France that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models adopted approach in closed versus open systems modelling. Energy 69, 47. Khan, I., Alam, F. & Alam,Mongol Q. iaThe global climate change and its effect on Energy economic model Guyana Latvia Lithuania Optimization Calculated best solutions may be Corruption ✓ 104–112 (2014). Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. power generation in Bangladesh. Energy Policy 61, 1460–1470Algeria (2013). EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection. d Jamaica 69 incorrect, because of the inadequate MAM 13. Sterner,✓ T. International ✓Energy Economics✓ (Springer Science & Business St. Vincent 48. and Wadey, the Grenadines M. P., Roberts,✓ H. & Harris, J. Impacts of ClimateMaur Changeitius on Built ✓ 5 systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that OptimizationSuppressed demand methods✓ are widely✓ utilized (13✓ models),✓ followed Marshall Islands Peru Singapore interpretation of economy and resources Media, 2012). Structures (Onshore ande Coastal) (MCCIP, 2013). 70 affect the demand and supply of energy, as well as the rational devel- by simulation (11 models) and economic (10MARKAL-MACRO models) methods. ✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓Angola ✓ Namibia ✓ ✓ ✓ Brazil ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 Climate change ✓ ✓ ✓ 14. Barsky, R. & Kilian, L. Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s (National 49. FijiThe Impacts of Climate Change on LiechtensteiNuclear Powern Stations Sites: a Review of framework India e Honduras 71 opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimizationimpacts methods are mostly applied toMICRO-MELODIE energy demand and Bureau1 ✓ of Economic Research,✓ 2004). ✓ ✓ Four✓ Proposed New-Build✓ Sites on the UK Coastline (Greenpeace, 2007). ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 Equilibrium Overlooking the disequilibrium of supply, and economic models. 15. Craig,02 P. P., Gadgil, A. & Koomey, J. G.55 What can history teach us? A 07 50. Senegal Archibugi, D. Technology,51e Globalisation and Economic00 Performance 72 TIMES- MACRO ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Zim babwe ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 typology and structure ofbusiness energy sectors planning and overestimatingmodels EPMs have three common components and a basic workflow: retrospective examination of long-term energyBeni forecastsn for the United (Cambridge Univ.Bhutan Press, 1997). energy demand-supply model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka We conducted a systematic surveybusiness of publishedsector impacts literature that prompt on EPMs. input variables → underlying estimation or projection methods → States. Ann. Rev. Energy Environ. 27, 83–118 (2002). 51. Bangladesh 2050 Energy and Emissions Pathways (BD2050,Tajikista 2015);n http:// contorted results21 16. IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Change 1995. A SynthesisHaiti Report go.nature.com/2E0ylLo 73 DECPAC emissions (metric tons per capita) ✓ Liberia ✓ ✓ ✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 Our study focuses on models predominantly used for the planning ouroutput analysis variables. of 34 Key EPMs variations, revealed however, several lieimportant in the type, shortcomings resolution 2 (WMO, 1995). Afghanistan 52. Understanding the Link Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modelling approaches Tanzania Guinea 74 of energy systems and infrastructures and that are more strategic, for(temporal the developing and spatial), context. scope and timeframe ofIKARUS the input and output ✓ 17.CO IEA. World✓ Outlook Energy✓ 2017 (International✓ Energy✓ Agency, 2017). (EPA,✓ 2016). ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 Eritrea 18. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, A. A. Energy models for demand forecasting—AComoros 53. Ravanelli, N. M. & Jay,e O. Electric fan use in heat waves:f Turn on or turn 71,75 asTop-down opposed model to operational. First,Incorrect a preliminary or incomplete study linkage was conducted or data in variables.A key findingModel objectivesfrom our Reviewand the isnature the lack ofENPEP theof considerationdata most often in 0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Nepa✓ l ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 to gather an overview of themodel topics frameworks related to results EPMs in thatincorrectly resulted thedetermine analysed the EPMs choice of of the estimation unique socioeconomic or projection methods. characteristics in review. Renew. Sust. Energy Rev. 16, 1223–1240So (2012).malia off? Temperature 3, 358–360d (2016). 76–78 LEAP 19. Bhattacharyya,✓ S. C. & Timilsina,✓ G. R. ✓A review of energy✓ system models. 54. Herring, S. C. et al.✓ Explaining extreme✓ events of 2015 from a climate✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 in the identification of twocomputed main themes: outputs energy demand and developingPrimary countries input variables such as in suppressed the studied demand, EPMs arecorruption, quantitative, and Madagascar POLES Int. J. ✓Energy Sector Management✓ 4, 494–518 (2010). ✓ perspective. Bull. Am.✓ Meteorol. d Soc. 97 (Suppl.) (2016).✓ ✓ ✓ 7 79 supply,Bottom-up and model energy informationInfluenced and emission by inappropriate models. or Electronic politicalfinancial instability. and disaggregated. Disregarding EPMs suppressed are numerical energy demand models andcan Chad 20. Pfenninger, S., Hawkes, A. & Keirstead, J. Energy systems modeling for 55. Johansson, T. B., Patwardhan, A. P., Nakićenović, N. & Gomez-Echeverri, L. 80 databases — namely Google incompleteScholar, ScienceDirect, relations and information JSTOR, IEEE potentiallyutilize quantitative underestimate data total for calculation.demand, rendering QualitativeMESSAGE-III future parameters planning twenty-first✓ centuryBurund energyi ✓ challenges. Renew. Sust. Energy✓ Rev. 33, Global✓ Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future (Cambridge Univ. ✓ ✓ 6 Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science,in the andframeworks, other official leading to websites incorrect with inaccurateare typically and interpreted ineffective, as especially ordinal for data long-horizon for WASP modelling planning purposes. such 74–86✓ (2014). ✓ ✓ ✓ Press,✓ 2012). ✓ ✓ 7 81 Access to electricity (% of population) energy databanks, specificallyresults United Nations (UN), World Bank, asWhile 2050 modelling pathways. energyCorruption infrastructure is a complex in asocio-economic holistic approach factor to 21. Urban, F., Benders, R. M. J. & Moll, H. C. Modelling energy systems for 56. Conti, J. et al. International Energy Outlook 2016 With Projections to 2040 82 MARKAL ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency andcover can a broaderincrease context,capital and the operation supply, demand costs of and energy socio-economic projects and 0.01developing countries. Energy Policy 35, 3473–3482 (2007). Report No. DOE/EIA-0484 (Office of Energy Analysis, 2016). Hybrid model Hybrid models could lead to inconclusive TIMES 22. Pandey,✓ R. Energy policy✓ modelling: agenda for developing✓ countries. 57. McNeil,✓ M. A. & Iyer, M. Techno-Economic Analysis of Indian Draft ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 83 (IEA) and Energy Informationresults Administration due to inappropriate (EIA) interrelations — were infrastructuresectors require in disaggregated some developing data forcountries, a better affectinginterpretation sustainabil of the- Energy Policy 30, 97–106 (2002). Standard Levels for Room Air Conditioners (Lawrence Berkeley National searched for relevant publications using the keywords listed in ity.existing Also, systems. the economy is sometimes linked withMEDEE political instability, b ✓ ✓ c ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ 6 84 of different parts of the system with 23. Guidelines16 on the Consideration of Suppressed Demand in100 CDM Laboratory, 2008). 40 85 Table 1. The keywords wereeconomic categorized and scientific into five-word data groups, whichIn the on caseits own of underlyingcan affect energy methods, infrastructure optimizationMAED resilience. was utilized in Methodologies✓ v.02.0 (UNFCCC, CCNUCC, 2012). ✓) ✓ 58. Miller, N. L., Hayhoe, K., Jin, J. & Auffhammer, M. Climate, extreme heat, ✓ 4 which were combined using the Boolean operator ‘AND’, for exam- thirteenApart models from because the developing-context-specific they would create an optimization socio-economic loop as 24. Gavaldão, M., Battye, W., Grapeloup, M. & François, Y. Suppressed demand and electricity demand in California.35 J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 47, 86 NEMS ) 7 and the✓ carbon markets:✓ Does development have to become✓ dirty before it 1834–1844✓ (2008). ✓ ✓ ✓ ple, ‘Energy planning model’ AND ‘Forecasting’ AND ‘Input vari- deficienciesa way of testing in the whether current the EPMs, selected climate output change satisfies impact the ondefined land d 71,75 per capita

ENERPLAN qualifies12 ✓ to become clean? Field Actions Sci. Rep. 7, 2175 (2013).10 59. Yohe, G. W. et al. Global✓ distributions30 ✓ of vulnerability to climate change. ✓ ✓ 5 modellingables’ AND will ‘Organization’ be time and AND cost effective‘Global’. Basedif a significant on the search relationship and the availabilityconstraints. andIn some food models,production especially is likely energy to alter demand the dynamics and supply of 25. Spalding-Fecher, R. Suppressed demand in the clean development2 Int. Assess 6, 35–44 (2006). MESAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ d ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 10 71 existsavailable between literature, corruption thirty-four and outcomemodels developed indicators. by In international cases where energy–food–emissionsmodels, the primary objective interactions, is to find especially the least-cost in the highly solution popu- for per capita

mechanism:2 Conceptual and practical issues. J. Energy Southern Africa 26, 60. Marchal, V. et al. Environmental25 Outlook to 2050 (OECD, 2011). theorganizations relationship or is institutionsnot apparent were or cannot selected be mathematically for analysis (Table formu- 2). latedthe energy developing market. countries. Optimization Increasing methods penetration inenergy such models of distributed emissions would model 2–10 (2015). 61. Lawson, S., Heacock, D. & Stupnytska, A. In BRICS and Beyond latedIn addition conveniently, to the published underlying journal causes articles can be andinvestigated books, manuals further. of energyrender the resources opportunity and bioenergy to test different goals require policiesUK that against 2050 EPMs the should least- 26. Barnes,8 D., Domdom, A., Peskin, V. & Peskin, H. Rural Electrification 1 and 131–164 (2007). 20 8 87 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Development in the Philippines: Measuring the Social and Economic Benefits 62. JICA & TEPCO. The Studyemissions (Gt) for Master Plan on Coal Power Development in

different models were investigated to explore their structure and nowcost option. consider However, land-based simulation interactions methods between were energy,also utilized food, in and a 2 51 BD 2050 ✓ (International✓ Bank for ✓Reconstruction and Development,✓ World Bank, the People’s Republic of Bangladesh15 (Energy✓ and Mineral Resources, Ministry ✓ ✓ 7

Datakey components. gathering, validation The reviewed and modelssharing. were A structured categorized data based gather- on environmentsignificant number for future of models. planning and development. CO

emissions (tCO 2002). of Power, People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2011). 88,89 MESAP PlaNet 8 2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ingmodel and objectives sharing system to contextualize can contribute the subsequentto the enhanced analysis accuracy and dis- of Country-specific trends in GHG emissions are also evolving. 27. IEG.4 The Welfare Impact of Rural Electrification: A Reassessment0.1 of the Costs 63. JICA, TEPSCO & TEPCO. 10People’s Republic of Bangladesh: Survey on Power 90 CO emissions per capita (tCO thecussion. EPMs, Model as well structures as the effectiveness were then of analysed the resulting to investigate policies. their Collectively,Developing middle-income country characteristics and upper-income not addressedEFOM-ENV countries in now ePMs emit and Benefits✓ (World Bank,✓ 2008). ✓ ✓ System✓ Master Plan 2015 (Draft Final Report) (Energy and Mineral ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 2 28. Clean Development Mechanism (UNFCCC, 2017); http://go.nature. Resources, Ministry of Power,5 People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2016). 91 relevance and deficits in developing contexts. For the categoriza- moreAlmost than all EPMshigh-income were constructed countries, inand developed this hasIMAGE beencountries the case (Table since 3) ✓ ✓ ✓CO ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 com/2nutjwx 64. Kaufmann, D. & Kraay, A. The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2014 Climatetion by modelchange objective, impacts fouron energy categories infrastructure were used: and energy systems. infor- 2007.and considered Emissions their are energyincreasing systems, at a mucheconomic faster assumptions, rate in developing and the 92 AIM 29. Modalities0 ✓ and Procedures✓ for a Clean Development Mechanism✓0.01 as Defined in ✓ Update (2014). 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Dependingmation systems, on the energy country-specific demand–supply, impacts energy–economic of climate change andon economiesextent to which than GHG previously emissions projected. need to be EPMs reduced. can While play CO an 2essen emis-- Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC, 2001). 65. DataBank (World Bank, 2014); https://data.worldbank.org/ 93 ASF ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 5 energy emissions systems and models. infrastructure, Table 2 illustrates its degree EPM of incorporation types, and their in tialsions role per in capita setting in high-income emerging economies countries on are a decreasing low-carbon (Fig. pathway 1b), 30. Report of the Conference ofYear the Parties Serving as the Meeting of the Parties 66.Year Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 (Transparency International,Year 2014). 94,95 EPMsinputs, can outputs, be varied. and If underlying the projected methods. climate Five change characteristics has a signifi- of whilethey are enhancing increasing access in the to energy. developing Most upper-middle reviewedGREEN EPMs and were middle- ini- to the✓ KyotoWorld Protocol on ✓its Fifth SessionMiddle (UNFCCC, income 2010).✓ Bangladesh Afghanistan 67. An Introduction Costa into Rica the Life-Cycle WorldAnalysis Calculation✓ ToolLower (LBST, middle 2008). income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 Upper middle income Nigeria Maldives Philippines 96 cantinput effect variables on future were energy analysed: infrastructure qualitative, and quantitative, systems, it should financial, be tiallyincome intended countries, for their whose country primary or region objective of origin ERM often in isthe to developed improve 31. Alesina,✓ A., Özler, S., Roubini,✓ N. & Swagel, P. Political✓ instability and 68. Strubegger, M. CO2DB Software High— Carbon income Dioxide✓ (Technology) Low income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 economicLow growth. and middle J. Econ. income Growth 1, 189–211 (1996). Canada United KingdomDatabase UsersUnited Manual States (InternationalUpper Institute middle forincome Applied Systems d 96 modelledaggregated explicitly, and disaggregated. especially forAlthough land-based financial variables data suchare typically as land world.access toTheir convenient later use formsin developing of energy. countries DespiteIEA demonstrated the fact that sometheir 32. Aisen,✓ A.High & Veiga, income F. J. How✓ does political instability affect✓ economicBelgium World Analysis, 2003). ✓ Middle income ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 use,classed distributed as ‘quantitative’, energy generation,based on the food extensive production use of andthese bioenergy. variables potentialEPMs have for been informed widely decision-making adopted for energy on energy system systems planning plan in- CRTM growth?✓ Eu. J. Political Econ.✓ 29, 151–167 (2013). ✓ 69. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity✓ Module (MAM) of ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 95,96 Inin different most cases, models the it explicit was deemed modelling worthwhile of climate-change to include them impacts as a ning.developing However, countries, the identified they lack shortcomings consideration in of this a substantial Review suggest num- Fig.33. 1 Debnath,| CO emissions K. B., Mourshed, characteristics. M. & Chew, a, CO S. P. emissions K. Modelling versus and accessforecasting to electricity inthe high-income National Energy and Modelinglow-income System countries (EIA, 2014). in 2010. Access to electricity 2 2 96 MR energy✓ demand in rural ✓households of Bangladesh. Energy✓ Procedia 75, 70. Manne,✓ A. S. & Wene, C.-O. MARKAL-MACRO: A Linked Model for ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 wouldseparate require characteristic. further investigationsThe underlying on methods the interactions were categorized between thatber ofthe issues formulation affecting of developing localized EPMs contexts; are essential for example, not only the foreffects the in low-income and middle-income countries ranges from 3.5–100% of the population. In contrast, the figure is 72.6–100% in high-income countries. b, CO2 relatedinto accounting variables. framework, regression, optimization, economic, countriesof a lack concerned of innovation, but also and for the a low-carbon varying nature pathwayWW of privatization,for the world. emissions2731–2737 ✓per capita (2015). for the✓ period 1992–2011. c, CO emissions✓ per capita in selectedEnergy-Economy developed and Analysis developing (Brookhaven countries National for the Lab, period✓ Upton, 1972–2011. 1992). d, CO ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96 34. Medlock, K. B. & Soligo, R. Economic development2 and end-use energy 71. Van Beeck, N. Classification of Energy Models (Tilburg University, Faculty of2 97 SGM emissionsdemand. ✓in countries Energy J. 22by, income77–105✓ (2001). group in✓ the period 1960–2011. The income✓ group classificationEconomics and used Business here Administration,is that from the 1999). World Bank list of economies ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 Outlook Received: 11 July 2016; Accepted: 22 January 2018; Total 3 (July35. Mauro,2015): 34 lowP. Corruption income, US$1,045 and 32 growth. or Q.less; J. 10Econ. lower 110 middle, 681–71227 income, (1995). US$1,046–4,125;8 72. upper Remme, 13 middle U. & income, Blesl, 10 M. US$4,126–12,735; Documentation 11 of andthe TIMES-MACRO high 7 income, US$12,736 Model 3 or 30 29 28 Distinct differences exist between the evolution of energy systems Published online: 6 March 2018 more.36. Aladwani, Data is taken A. M. from Corruption ref. 9. as a source of e-Government projects failure (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme, 2006). aInput types: Qul (qualitative); Qua (quantitative);in developing countries: Fin (financial); A theoretical exposition.Agg (aggregated); Int. J. Information and Disag 73. (disaggregated). Case Studies to Assess andbMethods: Compare Different RE (regression); Energy Sources in OPSustainable (optimization); EC (economic–econometric, inTable developing 1 | Searched and developedkeywords and countries, associated as a groups response to varying c d e references macroeconomic); SM (simulation); EQ (equilibrium);Management 36, 105–112 and (2016). AF (accounting framework). Output types:Energy Enand (energyElectricity Supply — demand/supply); Strategies (International Atomic Em (emissions); Energy and Co (cost). Econometric. Macroeconomic. social, technical, economic and environmental stimuli. Developed 1. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (eds fCoreEconomic Writing Team, equilibrium. Model Objective Components Origin of development geographical applicability 37. Mourshed, M. Pitfalls of oil-based expansion of electricity generation in a Agency, 2003). countries primarily aim to reduce climate-affecting GHG emissions Pachauri, R. K. & Meyer L. A.) (IPCC, 2015). developing context. Energy Strategy Rev. 1, 205–210 (2013). 74. Martinsen, D., Krey, V., Markewitz, P. & Vögele, S. IAEE Proceedings 2004 whileEnergy enhancing planning energy security.Forecasting In contrast, developing countriesInput variables 2. Raupach, M. R. etOrganization al. Global and regional driversGlobal of accelerating CO2 Given that the IEA estimates the growth in energy demand over the developing countries but did not present details on relevant socio- 38. Wells, J. Corruption in the Construction of Public Infrastructure: Critical (International Association for Energy Economics, 2004). 20 are predominantly concerned with increasing access to conven- emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 10288–10293 (2007). next Issues23 years in Project will Preparationbe higher (U4in developing Anti-Corruption Asian Resource countries Centre, than Bergen, the 75.economic Sahir, M. parameters H. & Qureshi, and A. their H. In effect6th WSEAS on policies. International Pfenninger Conference et on al. Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional 17 tional forms of energy through infrastructure expansion, which is 3. Le Quéré, C. et al. Trends in the sources and sinksdecentralization of carbon dioxide. Nat. and competitionrest ofNorway, the world 2015). inand thefuture emissions energy from industry growth regions22 will. Policy categorizedSimulation, EPMscentralized Modeling into and four Optimization types: one 227–233 energy to (World system an Scientific optimization;intelligent and and decentralized one; and finan- Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variablesGeosci. 2, 831–836 (2009). Country 1 often seen as a prerequisite for economic and social development. priorities in EPMs need 39.be to critical Lovei, be L.in & morethe McKechnie, current country-specificA. 1.5 The °C costs temperature of corruption discourse for the poor–the , orit is essen-energy regional, energyEngineering systemcial Academy simulation; vulnerabilities and Society, power 2006). system and in electricity households. market Addressing these in EPMs is nec- supply 4. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights (IEA, 2015). sector. Public Policy Private Sector 207, 1–8 (2000). 76. Heaps, C. G. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System Despite the differences in overall policy goals, EPMs play a cen- 5. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climatebecause Change Change (edsof the differencestial into understand objectives how EPMs due reflect to the challengesthe common being faced by socio- and qualitativeessary and mixed to methods. provide They recommended higher reliability further of estimates. Energy supply and demand Economic 40. Nye, J. S. Corruption and political development: a cost-benefit analysis. Am. v.2014.0.1.29 (2012); www.energycommunity.org tral role in energy sector development and transformation in both Edenhofer, O. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).economic vulnerability ordecision-makers conditions,Political Sci. Rev. in 61 different, 417–427 and parts(1967). geographical of the world. and climatic 77.development Takase, K. &and Suzuki, integrationIn T. The the Japanese of innovative following energy sector: approaches Current sections, situation, into EPMs and the issue of suppressed demand in developingEnergy supply and developed countries.Emission control Current EPMs were mostly 6. Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M. W., characteristics.Startz, R. & Liu, P. Less than Indicators 41. Previous relevant Vera, I. & workLanglois, has to L. reviewedEnergy most indicators EPMs developing for of sustainable different development. types. economiesSuganthi to addressfuture paths. thedeveloping complex Energy Policy interactions 39, 6731–6744 among countries (2011). disciplines such is as analysed, social followed by a discussion of the 18 21 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 637–641 (2017).22 et al.Energy categorized 32, 875–882 energy (2007). demand projection models based on their 78.science, Cai, ecology,W. et al. Comparison finance, and of CO behavioural emission scenarios psychology. and mitigation Urban et al. createdEnergy demand in developed countries, often with the assumptions and 7. Ramanathan, V. & Feng, Y. On avoiding dangerousinclude anthropogenic : issues regarding resource management; assessment of difference2 in socio-economic characteristics such as corruption biases of the country and region in which they were developed. energy alternatives; the economic 42.methods Geng, butY. et misclassifiedal. Recent and trend technical of bottom-up industrial emissions and top-downchallenges in developing approaches. countries. associ- analysedopportunities twelveand inEPMs China’s political to five investigate sectors in their 2020.stability, Energysuitability Policy for36 , as developing well as their effect on the economy. The Emission reduction interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead. Proc. Appl. Energy 166, 187–19019 (2016). 1181–1194 (2008). Recognizing the importance of EPMs in shaping the energy future, Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 14245–14250 (2008). ated with the transformationBhattacharyya of et the al. analysed energy available infrastructure EPMs for application infrom contexts a and following suggested that critical section characteristics explores of developing the influence of data inadequacy on the

Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 53 174182 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergyNature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCHNature 2018 eNergy | |172–184 VOL 3 | MARCH | 2018www.nature.com/natureenergy | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 183173 175 © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Publishers Limited, Limited, part of Springer part Nature. of All Springerrights reserved. Nature. All rights reserved. ReviewReview ARticle ARticle NaTurE ENErgy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2 countries79. Kitous, such A. POLES as the Model informal — Prospective economy Outlook and on supply Long-term shortages Energy were simulation,94. Burniaux, and J.-M., equilibrium Martin, J. P., methods.Nicoletti, G. Output & Martins, variables J. O. GREEN were a classi- overlooked.Systems (2006). The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied intoMulti-Sector, energy, Multi-Region emissions, General and cost Equilibrium measures. Model for Quantifying the 80. Messner, S., Golodnikov, A. & Gritsevskii, A. A stochastic version of the Costs of Curbing CO2 Emissions (1992). tries dynamicin the EPMs, linear programming yet specifics model were MESSAGE not offered III. Energyon socio-economic 21, 95. Among Weyant, theJ. P. analysedCosts of reducing 34 models, global carbonquantitative emissions. and J. Econ.financial Persp. data7, drivers775–784 such (1996). as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized27–46 (1993). in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- energy81. IAEA markets Wien Automatic in developing System Planningcontexts. (WASP) Package (International gregated96. Dean, data A. & asHoeller, input P. variables. Costs of Reducing In the CO case2 Emissions: of the outputEvidence variables, from Six InAtomic light ofEnergy this, Agency, there is2001). a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- mostGlobal of the Models model’s (OECD, outputs 1992). are energy (30 models), emission (29 textualChallenges82. Loulou, variations, R., Goldstein, model G. &structures, Noble, and K. Documentation and relevantgaps for emerging the MARKAL for socio- energymodels), 97. Brenkert, and A. cost L.,planning Sands, (28 models).R. D., Kim, ModelS. H. & Pitcher, outputsmodels H. areM. Model often normal- Family of Models 65–73 (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Documentation: Second Generation Model (2004). economicProgramme, variables 2004). for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; 98. Planning for example, & Economic cost Studiesper unit Section GDP, (PESS): cost Capacity per capita, Building cost for per unit inthat83. end, Loulou, the we R., reviewed Remme, developing-world U., thirty-four Kanudia, A., current, Lehtila, A. highly & Goldstein, used, G.macro-level context generated,Sustainable and Energy emissions Development per unit (IAEA, GDP. 2014). Reviewed models adopted EPMsDocumentation to investigate for thetheir TIMES applicability Model Part IIand (Energy deficiencies Technology for Systems energy different 99. LEAP: Long-Range underlying Energy methods Alternatives for Planning estimation System (SEI, and 2017). projection. systemsAnalysis in developingProgramme, 2005).countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimization 100. Tools and Models methods (CEERD. are 2017). widely utilized (13 models), followed affectKumar84. MacKenzie, the demandBiswajit G. A. and Energy Debnath supply Models of forenergy, Denmark * and as well MEDEE Monjur as the 3: Application rational Mourshed devel- of the by 101. simulationPOLES: Prospective (11 models) Outlook on and Long-term economic Energy (10 Systems models) (Enerdata, methods. 2012). Long Term Energy Demand Model to Denmark (Part III) (1982). 102. Munasinghe, M. & Meier, P. Energy Policy Analysis and Modelling opment85. Model of for the Analysis energy of sectorEnergy Demandin a developing (MAED-2) country. (International Atomic Optimization(Cambridge methodsUniv. Press, are 1993). mostly applied to energy demand and EnergyEnergy planning Agency, 2006).models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments supply,103. of Giannakidis, theand impact economic G., Labriet, of energymodels. M., Gallachóir, policies B. on Ó. the& Tosato, economy G. Informing and envi- ronment.typology86. The National Mostand structure EnergyEPMs Modeling originated of energySystem: in An planningdeveloped Overview 2009models countries (EIA, 2009). and are primarilyEPMsEnergy have andaimed Climate three at Policiesreducingcommon Using componentsgreenhouse Energy Systems and gasModels: aemissions basic Insights workflow: from while enhancingWe87. conductedThe UK energy2050 a systematicCalculator security. (DECC, survey In 2013); contrast,of publishedhttp://go.nature.com/2EvKxl9 most, literature if not on all, EPMs. developing input Scenario countriesvariables Analysis → are underlyingIncreasing predominantly the estimationEvidence concernedBase or. Vol. projection 30 (Springer, with methods increasing 2015). → 88. Schlenzig, C. & Steidle, T. MESAP — A Co-operative Modelling System for 104. Voβ , A., Schlenzig, C. & Reuter, A. MESAP-III: a Tool for Energy Planning energyOur Sustainablestudy access. focuses Local Here, onEnergy models we and review Environmental predominantly thirty-four Planning used widely (2001). for theused planning EPMs to investigateoutputand variables. Environmental their Key applicability Management: variations, Historyto however, developing and Newlie in Developments countriesthe type, resolution http://doi.and find anof89. energyabsence Schlenzig, systems ofC. Energyconsideration and planning infrastructures and of environmental the objectives,and that management are challenges, more with strategic, the and nuances(temporalorg/cj3s of andthe (1994). spatial),developing scope context. and timeframe Key deficiencies of the input ariseand output from theas opposed lackinformation of todeliberation operational. and decision supportof First, the a systemlow preliminary energy MESAP. demand Int.study J. Global was resulting conductedEnergy from variables.105. lack Completed of access Model Calculators andobjectives availability (DECC, and 2014); the of http://go.nature.com/2rVCaN7 naturesupply. of Other the data inadequacies most often includeto gatherIssues the 12an, 81–91lackoverview of(1999). consideration of the topics ofrelated socio-economic to EPMs that nuances resulted such determine106. as Howthe toprevalence theBuild choice a 2050 ofofCalculator estimationcorruption (DECC, or and 2014).projection resulting methods. cost inflation, in90. the Van identification Den Broek, M., Van of Oostvoorn, two main F., themes:Van Harmelen, energy T. & demand Van Arkel, andW. Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, the methodsThe EC Energy for andadequately Environment addressing Model EFOM-ENV the shortcomingsSpecified in GAMS in data quality, availability and adequacy, and the effects of climate change.supply,(1992). and We energyargue for information further research and emission on characterization models. Electronic and modellingfinancialCompeting of and suppressedinterests disaggregated. demand, EPMs climate are numerical change impacts, models and and socio-politicaldatabases91. Stehfest, — E., namely van feedback Vuuren, Google D., in Bouwman, developingScholar, L. ScienceDirect, & countries,Kram, T. Integrated andJSTOR, theAssessment developmentIEEE utilizeThe authors of quantitative contextual declare no competing dataEPMs. interests. for calculation. Qualitative parameters Xplore,of Global Scopus, Environmental Web of Change Science, with and IMAGE other 3.0: officialModel Description websites and with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes. energyPolicy databanks, Applications specifically (2014). United Nations (UN), World Bank, Whileadditional modelling information energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to International92. Kainuma, M., Monetary Matsuoka, Fund Y. & Morita, (IMF), T. InternationalThe AIM ⁄ ENDUSE Energy Model Agency and coverReprints a and broader permissions context, information the supply, is available demand at www.nature.com/reprints and socio-economic. Case Studies in Japan (1999). (IEA) uman and Energyactivities Information have led to rapid Administration changes in atmospheric (EIA) — werecon- aresectorsCorrespondence concerned require and with disaggregated requests increasing for materials data access shouldfor to a beelectricity,better addressed interpretation to which K.B.D. is consid- of the 93. Sankovski, A., Barbour, W. & Pepper, W. Quantification of the1 IS99 searchedcentrations for relevant of greenhouse publications gas using(GHG) the emissions keywords, contribut listed in- eredexisting a prerequisite systems. for development and economic empowerment, emission scenario storylines using the atmospheric stabilization2 framework. Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims TableTechnol. ing1. The to Forecasting and keywords amplifying Soc. Change were global categorized63, 263–287 climate (2000). change into five-word. Fossil fuels groups, and asinpublished reflectedIn the mapscase by and ofthe institutionalunderlying inclusion affiliations. methods,of energy optimizationas a goal in thewas Sustainable utilized in H 10 land-usewhich were change combined (for example, using the through Boolean deforestation operator ‘AND’, and for farming) exam- Developmentthirteen models Goals because. The they current would create CO2 emissionsan optimization per capita loop as of areple, two‘Energy primary planning sources model’ of GHG AND emissions, ‘Forecasting’ of which AND the ‘Input emissions vari- adeveloping way of testing countries whether are low, the oftenselected much output below satisfies the global the definedaverage 3 fromables’ landAND use ‘Organization’ has been nearly AND constant ‘Global’. Based, while on the the emissions search and from the constraints.(Fig. 1c). Hence, In some emission models, reduction especially is not energy always demand on the andagenda supply for fossil-fuelavailable literature, based energy thirty-four systems models increased developed by 50% by between international 2000 models,developing the countries, primary objective even at a iscursory to find level, the least-costexcept for solution a few large for 4 11 andorganizations 2013 (ref. or). institutions Current energy were and selected transportation for analysis systems (Table can2). thecountries energy such market. as China Optimization and India methods. in such models would 5 resultIn addition in substantial to the published GHG discharges journal articles, with and a likelybooks, global manuals mean of renderEnergy the planningopportunity models to test (EPMs) different play policies an essential against role the inleast- the temperaturedifferent models increase were between investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, explore with theira median structure of 3.2 and °C costdevelopment option. However, of the energy simulation sector methodsat global, were national also andutilized regional in a 6 bykey 2100 components. (ref. ). Even The ifreviewed current modelsGHG concentrations were categorized remain based con- on significantlevels by enabling number informed of models. decision-making. EPMs are especially stant,model the objectives world will to contextualizeexperience a thefew subsequentcenturies of analysis rising tempera- and dis- crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and 7,8 12 turecussion. and Modelocean level structures. Therefore, were then substantial analysed reductions to investigate in global their Developingplanning are country required characteristics for decarbonization not addressed. The development in ePMs of 13 GHGrelevance emissions and deficits are essential in developing for mitigating contexts. climate For change. the categoriza- AlmostEPMs started all EPMs in thewere late constructed 1950s and in early developed 1960s (ref. countries ) but (Table intensi- 3) tionIn by addition model objective,to the infrastructural four categories elements were used: of national energy energy infor- andfied consideredafter the oil their crisis energy of the systems, 1970s in economic light of theassumptions, realization and of the systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global and national energy mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO2 emis- 14 toenergy grid emissions electricity models. and purchasing Table 2 illustrates power of EPM the population types, and influ-their supplysions per. It capita was necessary, in high-income then, to countries critically are assess decreasing the interrelation- (Fig. 1b), enceinputs, energy outputs, end-use and and underlying GHG emissions. methods. Figure Five characteristics1a illustrates that of shipsthey arebetween increasing the sources in the of developing energy supply upper-middle and demand, and as middle- well as bothinput access variables to electricity were analysed: and per qualitative, capita CO quantitative,2 emissions financial,are more toincome identify countries, pathways whose for long-term primary development objective often of the is toenergy improve sec- 15 significantaggregated inand high-income disaggregated. countries, Although compared financial to data low-income are typically and toraccess. The to convenientdrive for global forms sustainability of energy. Despitein the 1990s the fact — spurred that some in middle-incomeclassed as ‘quantitative’, developing based countries. on the extensive Most use developed of these countriesvariables particularEPMs have by been the Rio widely Earth adopted Summit for in energy 1992 and system the planning1995 report in 16 canin different ensure models 100% access it was to deemed electricity, worthwhile which onlyto include a few them develop- as a ofdeveloping the Intergovernmental countries, they lack Panel consideration on Climate of Change a substantial (IPCC) num- — ingseparate countries characteristic. can match. The In 2010,underlying annual methods per capita were CO categorized2 emissions broughtber of issues forward affecting the issue developing of GHG contexts; emissions for andexample, their impactthe effects on rangedinto accounting from 0.02–15.14 framework, tCO regression,2 in low and optimization, middle-income economic, coun- theof a environment. lack of innovation, As a result, and the further varying models nature were of developed privatization, for tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental there is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans- income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro- allModel low and middle-income countriesObjective in 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding a comprehensiveOrigin of picture development of the interrelationships geographical applicability between ofEnergy Costa planning Rica’s energy was fromForecasting renewable resources, of Input which variables energy, environment,Organization and climate change. Global hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional As a result, future energy planning objectives of developed and been developed by researchers and organizations in different coun- developingEnergy economic countries are distinctlyDemand different. and supply; In demand; developed Output coun- variablestries, with various objectives and scopes.Country EPMs range from the tries, the focus today is on supply reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun- energyEnergy supplysecurity, and primarily demand characterized Economic by a shift from fossil fuels try, region or the world — to the more sectoral — providing projec- towardsEnergy supply more renewable resources.Emission However, control developing countries tions of the energy needs of, for example, transportation or industry. Energy demand BREEmission Trust Centrereduction for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: [email protected]

54 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy 184174172 Nature eNergy | VOL 3 | MARCH 2018 | 172–184 | www.nature.com/natureenergy © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Review ARticle NaTurE ENErgy

countries79. Kitous, such A. POLES as the Model informal — Prospective economy Outlook and on supply Long-term shortages Energy were simulation,94. Burniaux, and J.-M., equilibrium Martin, J. P., methods.Nicoletti, G. Output & Martins, variables J. O. GREEN were a classi- overlooked.Systems (2006). The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied intoMulti-Sector, energy, Multi-Region emissions, General and cost Equilibrium measures. Model for Quantifying the 80. Messner, S., Golodnikov, A. & Gritsevskii, A. A stochastic version of the Costs of Curbing CO2 Emissions (1992). tries dynamicin the EPMs, linear programming yet specifics model were MESSAGE not offered III. Energyon socio-economic 21, 95. Among Weyant, theJ. P. analysedCosts of reducing 34 models, global carbonquantitative emissions. and J. Econ.financial Persp. data7, drivers775–784 such (1996). as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized27–46 (1993). in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag- energy81. IAEA markets Wien Automatic in developing System Planningcontexts. (WASP) Package (International gregated96. Dean, data A. & asHoeller, input P. variables. Costs of Reducing In the CO case2 Emissions: of the outputEvidence variables, from Six InAtomic light ofEnergy this, Agency, there is2001). a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- mostGlobal of the Models model’s (OECD, outputs 1992). are energy (30 models), emission (29 textual82. Loulou, variations, R., Goldstein, model G. &structures, Noble, K. Documentation and relevant for emerging the MARKAL socio- models), 97. Brenkert, and A. cost L., Sands, (28 models).R. D., Kim, ModelS. H. & Pitcher, outputs H. areM. Model often normal- Family of Models 65–73 (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Documentation: Second Generation Model (2004). economicProgramme, variables 2004). for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; 98. Planning for example, & Economic cost Studiesper unit Section GDP, (PESS): cost Capacity per capita, Building cost for per unit that83. end, Loulou, we R., reviewed Remme, U., thirty-four Kanudia, A., current, Lehtila, A. highly & Goldstein, used, G.macro-level generated,Sustainable and Energy emissions Development per unit (IAEA, GDP. 2014). Reviewed models adopted EPMsDocumentation to investigate for thetheir TIMES applicability Model Part IIand (Energy deficiencies Technology for Systems energy different 99. LEAP: Long-Range underlying Energy methods Alternatives for Planning estimation System (SEI, and 2017). projection. systemsAnalysis in developingProgramme, 2005).countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimization 100. Tools and Models methods (CEERD. are 2017). widely utilized (13 models), followed affect84. MacKenzie, the demand G. A. and Energy supply Models of forenergy, Denmark as well MEDEE as the 3: Application rational devel- of the by 101. simulationPOLES: Prospective (11 models) Outlook on and Long-term economic Energy (10 Systems models) (Enerdata, methods. 2012). Long Term Energy Demand Model to Denmark (Part III) (1982). 102. Munasinghe, M. & Meier, P. Energy Policy Analysis and Modelling opment85. Model of for the Analysis energy of sectorEnergy Demandin a developing (MAED-2) country. (International Atomic Optimization(Cambridge methodsUniv. Press, are 1993). mostly applied to energy demand and Energy Agency, 2006). supply,103. Giannakidis, and economic G., Labriet, models. M., Gallachóir, B. Ó. & Tosato, G. Informing typology86. The National and structureEnergy Modeling of energySystem: An planning Overview 2009models (EIA, 2009). EPMsEnergy have and Climate three Policiescommon Using components Energy Systems and Models: a basic Insights workflow: from We87. conductedThe UK 2050 a systematicCalculator (DECC, survey 2013); of publishedhttp://go.nature.com/2EvKxl9 literature on EPMs. inputScenario variables Analysis → underlyingIncreasing the estimationEvidence Base or. Vol. projection 30 (Springer, methods 2015). → 88. Schlenzig, C. & Steidle, T. MESAP — A Co-operative Modelling System for 104. Voβ , A., Schlenzig, C. & Reuter, A. MESAP-III: a Tool for Energy Planning Our Sustainablestudy focuses Local onEnergy models and Environmental predominantly Planning used (2001). for the planning outputand variables. Environmental Key Management: variations, History however, and Newlie in Developments the type, resolution http://doi. of89. energy Schlenzig, systems C. Energy and planning infrastructures and environmental and that management are more with strategic, the (temporalorg/cj3s and (1994). spatial), scope and timeframe of the input and output as opposedinformation to operational. and decision support First, asystem preliminary MESAP. Int.study J. Global was conductedEnergy variables.105. Completed Model Calculators objectives (DECC, and 2014); the http://go.nature.com/2rVCaN7 nature of the data most often to gatherIssues 12an, 81–91overview (1999). of the topics related to EPMs that resulted determine106. How to theBuild choice a 2050 ofCalculator estimation (DECC, or 2014).projection methods. Eager to move on up in90. the Van identification Den Broek, M., Van of Oostvoorn, two main F., themes:Van Harmelen, energy T. & demand Van Arkel, andW. Primary input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative, The EC Energy and Environment Model EFOM-ENV Specified in GAMS supply,(1992). and energy information and emission models. Electronic financialCompeting and interests disaggregated. EPMs are numerical models and databases91. Stehfest, — E., namely van Vuuren, Google D., Bouwman, Scholar, L. ScienceDirect, & Kram, T. Integrated JSTOR, Assessment IEEE utilizeThe authors quantitative declare no competing data interests. for calculation. Qualitative parameters in your career? Xplore,of Global Scopus, Environmental Web of Change Science, with and IMAGE other 3.0: officialModel Description websites and with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes. energyPolicy databanks, Applications specifically (2014). United Nations (UN), World Bank, Whileadditional modelling information energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to International92. Kainuma, M., Monetary Matsuoka, Fund Y. & Morita, (IMF), T. InternationalThe AIM ⁄ ENDUSE Energy Model Agency and coverReprints a and broader permissions context, information the supply, is available demand at www.nature.com/reprints and socio-economic. Naturejobs is the global jobs board and career resource Case Studies in Japan (1999). (IEA)93. Sankovski, and Energy A., Barbour, Information W. & Pepper, Administration W. Quantification (EIA)of the IS99 — were sectorsCorrespondence require and disaggregated requests for materials data shouldfor a bebetter addressed interpretation to K.B.D. of the for scientists. We can help you throughout your job searchedemission for scenario relevant storylines publications using the atmospheric using the stabilization keywords framework. listed in existingPublisher’s systems. note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims search and your career: TableTechnol. 1. The Forecasting keywords Soc. Change were categorized63, 263–287 (2000). into five-word groups, inpublishedIn the mapscase and of institutionalunderlying affiliations. methods, optimization was utilized in The Naturejobs Career Expo which were combined using the Boolean operator ‘AND’, for exam- thirteen models because they would create an optimization loop as ple, ‘Energy planning model’ AND ‘Forecasting’ AND ‘Input vari- a way of testing whether the selected output satisfies the defined IS THE LARGEST CAREER Find a job ables’ AND ‘Organization’ AND ‘Global’. Based on the search and the constraints. In some models, especially energy demand and supply Search jobs, set up job alerts and research employers or available literature, thirty-four models developed by international models, the primary objective is to find the least-cost solution for FAIR AND CONFERENCE search for jobs on-the-go with our free mobile app. organizations or institutions were selected for analysis (Table 2). the energy market. Optimization methods in such models would In addition to the published journal articles and books, manuals of render the opportunity to test different policies against the least- FOCUSED EXCLUSIVELY ON different models were investigated to explore their structure and cost option. However, simulation methods were also utilized in a Help employers to find you key components. The reviewed models were categorized based on significant number of models. THE SCIENTIFIC WORLD. Upload your CV and make your profile searchable model objectives to contextualize the subsequent analysis and dis- to employers. cussion. Model structures were then analysed to investigate their Developing country characteristics not addressed in ePMs relevance and deficits in developing contexts. For the categoriza- Almost all EPMs were constructed in developed countries (Table 3) FIND YOUR NEAREST EXPO: tion by model objective, four categories were used: energy infor- and considered their energy systems, economic assumptions, and the Meet employers in person mation systems, energy demand–supply, energy–economic and extent to which GHG emissions need to be reduced. While CO2 emis- naturejobs.com/careerexpo Attend the Naturejobs Career Expo for invaluable career energy emissions models. Table 2 illustrates EPM types, and their sions per capita in high-income countries are decreasing (Fig. 1b), advice and to meet recruiters. inputs, outputs, and underlying methods. Five characteristics of they are increasing in the developing upper-middle and middle- input variables were analysed: qualitative, quantitative, financial, income countries, whose primary objective often is to improve aggregated and disaggregated. Although financial data are typically access to convenient forms of energy. Despite the fact that some View science careers advice classed as ‘quantitative’, based on the extensive use of these variables EPMs have been widely adopted for energy system planning in Keep up with the latest careers articles, interviews and in different models it was deemed worthwhile to include them as a developing countries, they lack consideration of a substantial num- more via our news and resources section or by subscribing separate characteristic. The underlying methods were categorized ber of issues affecting developing contexts; for example, the effects into accounting framework, regression, optimization, economic, of a lack of innovation, and the varying nature of privatization, to our newsletter. Ask us questions Search for “Naturejobs” on your preferred social media Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups platform or contact us via the Naturejobs blog. Model Objective Components Origin of development geographical applicability Energy planning Forecasting Input variables Organization Global naturejobs.com Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional Energy economic Demand and supply; demand; Output variables Country supply Energy supply and demand Economic Energy supply Emission control Follow us on: Energy demand Emission reduction

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