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Cyclone Warning Division India Meteorological Department New GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Cyclonic Storm, ‘SAGAR’ over the Arabian Sea (16 – 21 May 2018): A Report 19/1500 IST CYCLONIC STORM SAGAR INSAT-3D enhanced colored IR imagery of 19th May, 2018 Cyclone Warning Division India Meteorological Department New Delhi JUNE 2018 Page 0 of 32 Cyclonic Storm “Sagar” over Arabian Sea (16 – 21 May 2018) 1. Introduction The Cyclonic Storm (CS) Sagar originated from a low pressure area which formed over southwest Arabian Sea in the morning (0300 UTC) of 14th May. It became a well marked low pressure area in the early morning (0000 UTC) of 15th over the same region. Under favourable environmental conditions, it concentrated into a Depression (D) over Gulf of Aden in the evening (1200 UTC) of 16th May. Moving west-northwestwards it intensified into a deep depression (DD) in the early morning (0000 UTC) and further into a cyclonic storm (CS) “Sagar” in the morning (0300 UTC) of 17th May 2018 over Gulf of Aden. Thereafter, it moved west-southwestwards and crossed Somalia coast near latitude 10.650N and longitude 44.0 0E as a cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) of 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph between 1330 and 1430 IST of 19th May. Moving further west-southwestwards, it weakened into a DD in the mid night (1800 UTC) of 19th, D in the early morning (0000 UTC) of 20th and well marked low pressure area (WML) over Ethiopia and adjoining Somalia in the morning (0300 UTC) of 20th. The salient features of the system are as follows: The CS, Sagar is the first cyclone to cross coast to the west of longitude 450E during satellite era (since 1965). Last cyclone developing and passing through Gulf of Aden was cyclone Bandu (19- 23 May, 2010, MSW-40 kts) which dissipated over Gulf of Aden without making landfall. It had an anticlockwise and west southwestward recurving track. The peak maximum sustained surface wind speed (MSW) of the cyclone was 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph (45 knots) during 0000 UTC of 18th to 0300 UTC of 19th May. The lowest estimated central pressure was 994 hPa (from 0000 UTC of 18th to 0300 UTC of 19th May). The life period of cyclone was 87 hours (3 days & 15 hours) against long period average (LPA) (1990-2013) of 3.7 days for cyclonic storm over Arabian Sea. The track length of the cyclone was 766 km. The 12 hour average translational speed of the cyclone was 10.6 kmph against LPA (1990-2013) of 13.6 kmph over AS. The Velocity Flux, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Power Dissipation Index (PDI) were 4.55 X102 knots, 1.9 X 104 knots2 and 0.8 X106 knots3 respectively against LPA (1990-2013) of 1.89 X102 knots, 1.4 X 104 knots2 and 1.2 X106 knots3 during pre- monsoon season for AS. Brief life history, characteristic features and associated weather along with performance of NWP and operational forecast of IMD are presented and discussed in following sections. Page 1 of 32 2. Monitoring of CS, ‘SAGAR’ The cyclone was monitored & predicted continuously since its inception by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The observed track of the cyclone over BoB during 28- 31 May is shown in Fig.1. The best track parameters of the systems are presented in Table 1. The cyclone was monitored & predicted continuously by India Meteorological Department (IMD) prior to it’s genesis as low pressure area over AS from 11th May onwards. The system was monitored mainly with satellite observations from INSAT 3D and 3DR, SCAT Sat, polar orbiting satellites, scatterometer observations and available ships & buoy observations in the region. Various national and international numerical weather prediction models and dynamical-statistical models were utilized to predict the genesis, track and intensity of the cyclone. Tropical Cyclone Module, the digitized forecasting system of IMD was utilized for analysis and comparison of various models guidance, decision making process and warning product generation. IMD issued regular bulletins to WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries including Yemen, Oman and Somalia, National & State Disaster Management Agencies, general public and media since inception of the system over AS. 3. Brief life history 3.1. Genesis The Cyclonic Storm (CS) Sagar originated from a low pressure area which formed over southwest Arabian Sea in the morning (0300 UTC) of 14th May. It became a well marked low pressure area in the early morning (0000 UTC) of 15th over the same region. On 16th may 2018, considering the environmental parameters, the sea surface temperature (SST) was 30-320C over the system area. The tropical cyclone heat potential is about 80- 100 kJ/cm2 over the region of the low pressure system and it was less than 50kJ/cm2 over the Gulf of Aden. There was a maxima of 10x10-5 s-1 in low level convergence to the southwest of the system centre. The upper level divergence was about 20x10-5 s-1 to the north of system centre. The vorticity at 850 hpa level was about 100x10-6 s-1 around the system centre and was extending upto 500 hpa level. Vertical wind shear was low to moderate (10-15 kts) around the system centre and over Gulf of Aden. It increased towards Yemen and Oman coasts. Upper tropospheric ridge lay along latitude 18.00N near longitude 500E. It favoured poleward outflow and hence increase in the upper level divergence. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index lay over phase 1 with amplitude greater than 1. The middle and upper level winds indicated the system to move initially west-northwestwards across Gulf of Aden during next 24 hrs. Under these favourable environmental conditions, it concentrated into a Depression (D) over Gulf of Aden in the evening (1200 UTC) of 16th May. 3.2. Intensification and Movement The similar environmental conditions like SST and Ocean thermal energy continued on 17th May. The low level convergence increased and there was a maxima of 30x10-5 s-1 at 0000 UTC of 17th May to the south of the system centre. The upper level divergence was about 20x10-5 s-1 over the system centre. The vorticity at 850 hpa level was about 100x10-6 s-1 around the system centre and was extending upto 500 hpa level. The vertical wind shear continued to be low to moderate (10-15 kts) around the system centre and over Gulf of Aden. It increased towards Yemen and Oman coasts. The upper Page 2 of 32 tropospheric ridge lay along latitude 17.00N near longitude 500E. It favoured poleward outflow and hence increase in the upper level divergence. The MJO index continued to be in phase 1 with amplitude greater than 1. The middle and upper level winds indicate that the system would move initially westwards during next 12 hours and then west- southwestwards across Gulf of Aden during subsequent24 hrs. Under these conditions, the depression moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression (DD) in the early morning (0000 UTC) and further into a cyclonic storm (CS) “Sagar” in the morning (0300 UTC) of 17th May 2018 over Gulf of Aden. Thereafter, it moved west-southwestwards maintaining maximum intensity of 45 knots (CS) till 0300 UTC of 19th May. On 19th morning, the tropical cyclone heat potential is about 50kJ/cm2over the region of the system. The lower level convergence decreased and was about 20 x10-5 s-1 to the south southeast of the system centre. The upper level divergence continued to be about 30 x10-5 s-1 around the system centre. The vorticity at 850 hpa level also continued to be about 100x10-6 s-1to the south of the system centre. The vertical wind shear decreased and was low (05-10kts) around the system centre. It increased towards Yemen and Oman coasts. Upper tropospheric ridge ran along latitude 14.00N near longitude 450E. As the system moves west-southwestwards, it was coming closer to land surface and hence there was increased land interaction. The total precipitable water (TPW) imagery indicates relatively dry air condition in the periphery of the system in southern sector covering Somalia. However, system maintained intensity of CS due to favourable vertical wind shear, though it showed marginal decrease in intensity. It crossed Somalia coast near latitude 10.650N and longitude 44.0 0E as a cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) of 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph between 0800 and 0900 UTC of 19th May. Moving further west-southwestwards, it weakened into a DD in the mid night (1800 UTC) of 19th, D in the early morning (0000 UTC) of 20th and well marked low pressure area (WML) over Ethiopia and adjoining Somalia in the morning (0300 UTC) of 20th Fig.1 Observed track of CS Sagar (16- 21 May, 2018) over Arabian Sea Page 3 of 32 Table 1: Best track positions and other parameters of the Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, ‘Sagar’ over the Arabian Sea during 16-21 May, 2018 P"] (UTC) Grade (text) (hPa)[or "delta Pressure Drop Date(DD/MM/YY YY) Time Latitude (lat) longitude (Long) "T.CI No No"] [or Estimated Central Pressure "E.C.P"](hPa) [or Maximum Sustained Surface Wind (kt) 16/05/2018 1200 13.0 50.0 1.5 1001 25 3 D 1800 13.2 49.6 1.5 1001 30 4 D 17/05/2018 0000 13.2 49.0 2.5 999 30 5 DD 0300 13.2 48.7 2.5 997 35 7 CS 0600 13.0 48.4 2.5 997 35 7 CS 0900 13.0 48.3 2.5 997 35 7 CS 1200 13.0 48.1 2.5 996 40 8 CS 1500 13.0 47.8 2.5 996 40 8 CS 1800 12.8 47.5 2.5 996 40 8 CS 2100 12.7 47.2 2.5 996 40 8 CS 18/05/2018 0000 12.4 46.6 3.0 996 45 10 CS 0300 12.2 46.3 3.0 994 45 10 CS 0600 12.0 46.0 3.0 994 45 10 CS 0900 11.8 45.6 3.0 994 45 10 CS 1200 11.6 45.5 3.0 994 45 10 CS 1500 11.4 45.3 3.0 994 45 10 CS 1800 11.3 45.1 3.0 994 45 10 CS 2100 11.2 45.0 3.0 994 45 10 CS 19/05/2018 0000 11.1 44.8 3.0 994 45 10 CS 0300 10.9 44.4 3.0 994 45 10 CS 0600 10.8 44.1 3.0 996 40 08 CS Crossed Somalia coast near latitude 10.650N/44.00E between 0800-0900 UTC 0900 10.6 43.9 - 998 40 08 CS 1200 10.4 43.6 - 1000 35 7 CS 1800 10.2 43.3 - 1001 30 5 DD 20/05/2018 0000 10.0 42.9 - 1003 25 3 D 0300 Weakened into well marked low pressure area over Ethiopia The TPW imageries during 16-20 May, 2018 are presented in Fig.2.
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