Global Weather Hazards Summary May 25 - 31, 2018

Tropical is expected to hit and next week

Africa Weather Hazards

Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Potential ocust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 6

4 1. Insufficient rain since 2 January has resulted in 3 large moisture deficits and below-average vegetation 5 conditions over portions of northwestern Angola. 5 2. Poorly-distributed rain since late February has resulted in abnormal dryness across central and northeastern . 1 3. A slow onset to seasonal rainfall across the southern Gulf of Guinea countries has led to strengthening moisture deficits throughout the region.

4. Delays in seasonal rainfall across the southern Gulf of Guinea countries has led to strengthening moisture deficits throughout the region. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 5. Many consecutive weeks of heavy rainfall over western parts of Kenya, southern , coastal Tanzania, and Rwanda has led to severe flooding.

6. Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is expected to strengthen and track north through the and impact Yemen and Oman, bringing winds and heavy rainfall.

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.

Tropical has impacted parts of the East Satellite Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) AfricaWeather region withHazards heavy Summary rains and winds. Valid: May 16 – May 22, May2018 25 - 31, 2018 Tropical cyclone Sagar has impacted parts of the East Africa Overview Satellite Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) AfricaTropical region Cyclone with Sagar heavy took rains a rare and path winds through. the Valid: May 16 – May 22, 2018 and made landfall in northwestern . The storm induced Tropical cyclone Sagar lands in East Africa Tropicalheavy rains Cyclone along Sagar coastal took Yemen, a rare pathnorthern through Somalia, the G Djiboutiulf of Aden and Figure 1: RFE2 Satellite Estimated Rainfall (mm) andparts made ofTropical Et landfallhiopia. Cyclone Althoughin northwestern Sagar rainfall took Somaliland.totals a rare were path not The through well storm observed the induced Gulf in of Valid: May 16 - 22, 2018 heavythese Adenrainsareas, andalong there made co werea landfallstal numerousYemen, in northwestern northern reports Somalia,of Somaliland. flooding, and The evenstormand partswind ofdbroughtamage. Ethiopia. Several heavy Although rains other rainfall along parts coastaloftotals the Eastwere Yemen, Africanot northernwell region observed received Somalia, in theseenhanced areas,Djibouti rains. there and These were parts includednumerous of Ethiopia., westernrepo Westernrts ofKenya, flooding, Kenya, South Southand Sudan, even Sudan, neighboring parts of Ethiopia, and Uganda. Rainfall totals exceeded wind damage.neighboring Several parts other of Ethiopia, parts of andthe EastUganda Africa also region received received above- 100mm and locally 200mm in these regions during the past 7 days enhancedaverage rains. rain. These Rainfall included totals, exceededwestern 100Kenya, mm South and locally Sudan, 200 neighbaccordingoring toparts satellite of Ethiopia, estimates and Uganda(Figure. Rainfall1). Northern totals exceeded Ethiopia mm in these regions during the past week Northern 100mmreceived and little locally rain 200mmthis week in andthese observed regions during7-day(Figure thedeficits past 1). of7 daysup to according25mm.Ethiopia Seasonal to satellite received dryness estimates little is rainset (tingFigure this in weekacross1). Northern and eastern observed Ethiopia Kenya. 7-day receivedFloodingdeficits littlecontinues rain of upthis to to beweek 25 a concern mm.and Seasonal observed for many dryness 7 -areasday isdeficits that setting continue of upin toacrossto 25mm.see repeatedeastern Seasonal Kenya.weeks dryness Flooding of enhanced is continuessetting rains. in to across Thebe a concern.Shebelle eastern RiverKenya. in FloodingSomalia continues to runbe anear concern flood forstage. many areas that continue to see repeatedHowever, weeks western of andenhanced northern rains. provinces The Shebelle of Ethiopia River exhibit in SomaliaWestern continues and, increa to runsingly, near northern flood stage. provinces of Ethiopia exhibit seasonalseasonal rainfall rainfall deficits. deficits, Heavy rains despite 2 weeks recent ago heavy started rains. to shrink Thirty- day moisture deficits in several areas are between 25 - 50 mm Westernmoisture anddeficits, increa. Still,singly, 30-day northern moisture provinces deficits inof several Ethiopia area exhibits are seasonalbetween(Figure rainfall25 and 2) anddeficits. 50mm less thanHeavy(Figure 50% rains 2of) normal. and2 weeks less Concurrently, agothan started50% of vegetationto normal. shrink moistureConcurrhealthently deficits , hasvegetation. Still, degraded. 30 -hdayealth Inmoisture Yemen,has degraded deficits the season inrapidly several so as far areaevidenced is slightlys are betweenby thedrier vegetation 25 thanand normal50mm health in(index.Figure the east Meanwhile 2) andand wetter less in Yemen,than to the50% thewest. ofseason normal.However, so Concurrfar is slightlyvegetationently, vegetationdrier conditions than normalhealth are hasin average.the degraded east and rapidly wetter as to evidenced the west. byHowever the vegetation this appears health to index. have affectedMeanwhile vegetation in Yemen, conditions the season little. so far is slightlyNext week, drier heavythan normalrainfall inis expectedthe east andto continue wetter to overthe west.western HoweverFor the upcomingthis appears outlook to have period, affected models vegetation suggest conditions the continuation little. of heavyKenya, rainfall Rwanda, over westernBurundi, Kenya South, Sudan,Rwanda and and Western Burund iEthiopia., South Figure 1: NOAA/CPC ForSudan theAnother andupcoming Western tropical outlook Ethiopia cyclone, period,. Another Mekunu, models tropical is suggest strengthening cyclone the continuation, Mekunu, east of theis ofstrengthening heavyhorn. rainfall It east is over expected of western the h toorn. trackKenya It is northward, Rwandaexpected and towardsto trackBurund thenorthwardi, ArabianSouth Source: NOAA/CPC Sudantowards Peninsulaand the Western Arabian and makeEthiopiaPeninsula landfall. Another and somewhere make tropical landfall nearcyclone somewhere the, Oman-YemenMekunu, near is Figure 1: NOAA/CPCSatellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) strengtheningthe Omanborder,-Yemen eastwhere border,of it the is likely wherehorn. to Itit bring is likelyexpected heavy to bring rains to track heavyand windsnorthward rains upand to Valid: April 23 – May 22, 2018 winds up to 75kts. towards75kts. the and make landfall somewhere near Figure 2: ARCSatellite 30-day Estimated Total Rainfall Rainfall Anomaly Anomaly (mm) the Oman-Yemen border, where it is likely to bring heavy rains and Valid: April 23 - May 22,Valid: 2018 April 23 – May 22, 2018 winds up to 75kts. A suppressedRainfall was rainfall below-average pattern in Westquickly Africa returned last week to West AfricaRainfall during was the mainly last week. light across the region last week. Heavy A suppressedrainfall totals rainfall approaching pattern 100 quickly mm were returned only observedto West in AfricaRainfallparts during was of mainly southeastern the lastlight week.or moderateNigeria and across northern the regionBenin. duringThe rest the of past 7the days. region Heavy received rainfall around totals 25approaching mm or less 100mm during thewere period. only RainfallobservedMoisture was very mainly locally deficits light in partsorare moderate growing of southeastern rapidlyacross theandNigeria, regionnegative and during northern anomalies the pastBenin. 7 are days.Most greater ofHeavy the than rest rainfall 50of mmthe totals regionduring approaching received the 30-day around 100mm period 25mm (Figurewere or only less2). A observedduring the very period. locally The in partsextent of of southeastern rains pushed Nigeria, a little andfarther northern north throughpoor Sierra and delayedLeone and start Guinea to rains than is also previous now observed weeks, inbut Burkina total Benin. FasoMost and of the southern rest of Mali. the region Some improvementreceived around to seasonal 25mm or deficits less duringamounts the wereperiod. still The quite extent light of rainsand pushedsuppressed a little below farther normal. north throughMoisturehas Sierra deficitsbeen Leone observed are growingand in Guinea southern rapidly than Nigeria,and previous negative but weeks,many anomalies other but total areasare amountswell greateralong were thethan Gulfstill 50mm ofquite Guinea during light remainthe and 30 - dayabnormallysuppressed period ( dry.Figure below 2 ).normal. A poor Moistureand delayed deficits start are to growingrains is rapidlyalso now and be negativeing observed anomalies in Burkina are wellFaso greater andDuring southern than the 50mm next Mali. week,during VHI indicates thethe 30 forecast-day that period poor calls rainfall for(Figure rain performance 2 in). theA poor east andis negatively delayedand no affectingstart rain toin rainsthe vegetation west. is also Between in nowthese be theareas.ing areas observed So meof enhancedimprovement in Burkina and Fasoto seasonal and southern deficits Mali. has VHI been indicates observed that poorin southern rainfall performanceNigeria, but many suppressedother areas alongrains, theseasonable Gulf of Guinea rainfall remain totals abnormallyof between dry. 25-50 is negativelymm are affecting expected. vegetation in these areas. Some improvement to seasonal deficits has been observed in southern Nigeria, but manyDuring other the areasnext week,along thethe Gulfforecast of Guinea calls remainfor enhanced abnormally rain dry.in the east and suppression of rain in the west. A sharp rainfall gradient in Duringrainfall theis likelynext keepweek, northernthe forecast parts calls of Sierra for enhanced Leone and rain Guinea, in the eastalong and with suppression parts of southern of rain in Malithe west.dry, degradingA sharp rainfall conditions gradient there in rainfallfurther. is Between likely keep the northernareas of parts enhanced of Sierra and Leone suppressed and Guinea, rains, alongseasonable with parts rainfall of totalssouthern of betwee Mali ndry, 25 -degrading50mm are expected.conditions there further. Between the areas of enhanced and suppressed rains, Figure 2: NOAA/CPC Source: NOAA/CPC seasonable rainfall totals of between 25-50mm are expected. Figure 2: NOAA/CPC Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range Notseaeso: Tnalhe climhazaarteds foreca outlooksts map or in odnicate page current 1 is based or pr ojeon cctedurrent foo dw securieather/climatety condit iions.nformat ion and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 w eek).Famine It asses Earlyses their Warning potenti alSystems impact o nNetwork crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions h2ave bQuestionseen obse orr vcommentsed. The aboutbou ndarithis productes of maythese be directedpolygons to [email protected] are only approximate or 1a-t301 th-i683s c-o3424.ntin ental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. Weather Hazards Summary May 25 - 31, 2018

d Central Asia Weather Hazards rma ryess ruht Temperatures Seere ruht ra ye Below-normal temperatures prevailed across most of teta ust utrea the region from May 13- 19 with the largest negative Heay S anomalies of -6°C observed across northern Kazakhstan. rma d Minimum temperatures fell below freezing across the rma Heat northern third of Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Maximum temperatures will average above-normal throughout much of the region during the final week of May. Maximum temperatures are expected to exceed 40°C in the hottest locations of southwest Afghanistan and southern Turkmenistan.

Precipitation Locally heavy rain (more than 50 mm) triggered flash flooding in Balkh and Takhar province of northern Afghanistan during mid-May. The abnormal dryness and Source: FEWS NET/NOAA drought hazards are posted for parts of Afghanistan and adjacent countries based on large six-month precipitation deficits, low snow water content, and expected negative impacts to agriculture. Based on NDVI percent of median anomalies for irrigated and rainfed areas as of May 10, severe drought is posted for parts of northwest Afghanistan.

Additional precipitation (locally more than 25 mm) is predicted across the higher elevations of northern Afghanistan during the next week. Any locally heavy rainfall coupled with snow melt could cause flash flooding. Widespread rain (10 to 50 mm) is forecast across northern Kazakhstan.

Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards

1. Heavy downpours are forecast over southern and central Guatemala, which could cause flooding and landslides.

d rma ryess 1 ruht Seere ruht ra ye teta ust utrea Heay S rma d rma Heat

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

The risks for flooding and landslides persist over many local areas as heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week.

During the past week, an increase in rainfall was observed over Central America, with the largest amounts along the Pacific Rim of the region. Heavy downpours fell over southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca region, western Nicaragua, and the southern Caribbean. In Guatemala, flooding, landslides, and many affected people were reported over many areas, including the Chiquimula, El Progreso, Guatemala, Petén, Quetzaltenango, Escuintla, Sacatepéquez, Sololá, San Marcos, and Suchitepéquez, according to local agency. Meanwhile, light to moderate rain was widespread across the inland of Central America. An analysis of rainfall anomalies over the past thirty days, however, indicated that portions of Guatemala, Honduras, WeatherNicaragua, Hazards and Costa Summary Rica received below-average rainfall, with deficits between 25-100 mm.May The 25 onset - 31, and2018 continuation of seasonal rainfall is neededCentral to reduce America or andeliminate the Caribbean moisture Overviewdeficits and support agricultural activities over many local areas of the inland of Central America. The risks for flooding and landslides continue During the past week, heavy downpours fell over southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca region, western Nicaragua, and the southern During the next week, Caribbean.well-distributed In Guatemala, and floodinglikely to and be landslides above -averagewere reported rain over is manyforecast areas, includingacross theCentral Chiquimula, America El Progreso,. While Guatemala, the forecast Petén, enhanced rain should help to erode moistureQuetzaltenango, deficits Escuintla, over Sacatepéquez, portions of Sololá, Guatemala, San Marcos, Honduras, and Suchitepéquez. Nicaragua, Meanwhile, and light Costa to moderate Rica, rain the was consistent widespread, acrossabundant rain could exacerbate conditions onthe the inland ground of Central even America. trigger An newanalysis flooding of rainfall and anomalies landslides over the over past already thirty days,-saturated however, indicatedareas of that southern portions andof Guatemala, central Guatemala and other susceptible areas.Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica received below-average rainfall, with deficits between 25-100 mm. During the next week, above-average rain is forecast across Central America. While this should help to erode moisture deficits over portions of Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, the consistent, abundant rain could trigger new flooding and landslides. Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH climatology (mm) May 23 – 30, 2018 Figure 4: GEFS mean total rainfall forecast (mm) Figure 5: CMORPH rainfall climatology (mm) Valid: May 23 - 30, 2018 Valid: May 23 - 29, 2018

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC Source: NOAA/CPC Source: NOAA/CPC

Below-average rain forecast during the next week From May 15-21, suppressed rain was recorded over much of Hispaniola. Light rain was received over portions of northwestern Haiti Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. and south-central Dominican Republic. The return of favorable rainfall is needed to offset moisture deficits and provide adequate soil moisture for cropping activities over the dry portions of the Island.

During the next week, reduced and likely to be below-average rain is forecast over Hispaniola. Moderate rain is expected over central and northern Haiti, central and southern Dominican Republic, while little to light rain is forecast elsewhere.

ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4