SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly MAr 2009 26 February 2009 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org OVERVIEW FOR MARCH CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE Status Update since our February will preside over the Council’s work in n Kosovo; and Forecast...... 2 March. In addition to its regular activities, n the Middle East. during this month, the Council will under- UN Support for Peacekeeping by A briefing on the Council’s trip to Haiti is take a mission to Haiti (from 11 to 14 Regional Organisations ...... 3 planned for 19 March. March) and will also hold its annual retreat Haiti...... 6 with the Secretary-General. The Council will hold a meeting in consulta- ...... 8 tions on Liberia and is likely to be briefed by /...... 10 A public debate to review the report by the the Secretary-General’s Special Represen- Kosovo...... 11 joint - panel tative in charge of UNMIL, Ellen Løj. Afghanistan...... 13 on options for UN support to AU peace- Chad/CAR...... 16 keeping operations is planned for 18 March. On , the Council, will hold consul- Lebanon...... 18 The meeting is likely to be chaired by tations on implementation of resolution Liberia...... 20 Libya’s Minister for African Affairs Ali Treiki. 1701. A briefing by the Special Coordinator Iran...... 21 Former Italian Prime Minister Romano for Lebanon Michael Williams is possible. Prodi, who headed the panel, is expected to Notable Dates for March ...... 24 Consultations on the situation between present the report. Important Dates over the Horizon 24 Eritrea and Djibouti are likely. There are also likely to be public debates on: On , a briefing by the chair of the on an arrest warrant against Sudanese n Afghanistan; sanctions committee is expected. And, in President Omar al-Bashir, some Council n Somalia; view of the likely decision by the ICC judges discussions are likely. Aide-Memoire

Important matters pending for the Council S/2000/809), the Council decided to review are now also very delayed. (The last report, include: periodically the implementation of the pro- released in December, covered the period n The 2005 World Summit requested that the visions contained in the resolution’s annex. from 1 January-30 June 2008.) Security Council consider reforms for the No such reviews have occurred in the past n The Secretary-General’s recommenda- Military Staff Committee. This has yet to four years. However, in January the Coun- tions to the Council regarding specific be addressed. cil embarked on an initiative to look at ways action on sexual violence as put forward in n In a presidential statement on Darfur in July of improving the Council’s handling of his latest report on protection of civilians 2008 (S/PRST/2008/27) the Council wel- peacekeeping issues. An outcome is in armed conflict (S/2007/643) have yet to comed the UN investigation underway into expected in August. be systematically implemented in country- the 8 July attack against UNAMID peace- n The quarterly reports of the International specific situations. keepers. The Council is still awaiting the Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan n The Council requested the Secretariat on results of this investigation. are now always outdated when released. 21 November 2006 (S/2006/928) to update n There was no monthly report from the Kosovo (The last report, released in December, cov- the index to Council notes and state- Force (KFOR) in November. The last one ered the period 1 May-31 July 2008.) The ments on working methods. This has not available covers the period 1-31 July 2008. next report covering the period 1 August-30 been published. n In resolution 1327 on the implementation of October 2008 is yet to be released. n On Western Sahara, in April 2008 the Coun- the report of the Panel on United Nations n UNAMl reports on human rights, in the cil in resolution 1813 called upon the parties Peace Operations (the Brahimi Report, past produced every two to three months, >>page 2

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  Aide-Memoire (continued)

to continue negotiations. But there have forced displacement,” respectively, despite n The Council has yet to address the latest been no further talks, nor any briefings to MONUC’s reports about the problems report of the Lebanon Independent Bor- the Council on the situation. continuing on a serious scale. der Assessment Team, which was issued n On the DRC, the Council sanctions com- n The Secretary-General has yet to put on 25 August 2008 (S/2008/582). mittee has not acted on individual forward proposals for the delineation of n The Council is awaiting the Peacebuilding sanctions under resolutions 1698 and the international borders of Lebanon, Commission’s response to its May request 1807 against armed groups that recruit especially in the Sheb’a Farms area, in for advice and recommendations on the children and or commit “serious violations accordance with resolution 1701, and situation in the Central African Republic of international involving the targeting respond to the cartographic, legal and (S/2008/383). of children or women in situations of political implications of the alternative path n The Secretariat is yet to report to the Coun- armed conflict, including killing and suggested by the Government of Lebanon cil on as requested in the 6 February maiming, sexual violence, abduction and in its seven-point plan. presidential statement (S/PRST/2008/4).

Status Update since our February Forecast

Recent developments on the situations On 17 February, Under Secretary-General for Council, Japanese Ambassador Yukio covered in this Forecast are addressed in Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy Takasu, conveyed to the press Council mem- the relevant briefs. Interesting develop- briefed the Council in closed consultations on bers’ views on the humanitarian situation in ments on other issues in the Council during the Secretary-General’s report (S/2009/83) on Gaza, including their concern for full imple- February included: Darfur and progress regarding the deploy- mentation of resolution 1860 and that there n Pakistan: On 2 February the Secretary- ment of AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur was convergence of views to welcome the General informed the Council (S/2009/67) (UNAMID) and the implications of a possible establishment of the Board of Inquiry and the he had agreed to the government of ICC warrant against Sudanese President Secretary-General’s intention to report its Pakistan’s request for an international Omar al Bashir. On 23 February the ICC conclusions to the Council. commission to determine the facts and cir- announced that its decision on an arrest On 18 February, the Special Coordinator cumstances of the assassination of former warrant against al Bashir is likely on 4 March. for the Middle East Peace Process, Robert Pakistani Prime Minister Mohtarma Benazir n Sierra Leone: On 9 February, the Council Serry, briefed the Council (S/PV.6084). He Bhutto. The three-member commission of held an open debate (S/PV.6080) to consider emphasised the challenges facing the inquiry will operate for a period of six months. the first report of the Secretary-General region, in particular: the repercussions of the Ambassador Heraldo Muñoz of Chile will (S/2009/59) on the UN Integrated Peace- Gaza crisis; continued Palestinian divisions head the commission. building Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL). and lack of reconciliation; the new political n : On 3 February the Security Council Michael von der Schulenburgand, the Exec- situation in Israel; unmet road map obliga- released a press statement (SC/9587) wel- utive Representative of the Secretary-General, tions, especially regarding settlements; and coming the holding of provincial elections in briefed the Council. The Council was also the freeze in indirect Israeli-Syrian negotia- Iraq on 31 January and congratulating Iraqis. briefed by Netherlands’ Ambassador Frank tions. He emphasised the need for a On 20 February the Secretary-General Majoor, Chairman of the Peacebuilding permanent Gaza ceasefire. A return to vio- released his quarterly report on Iraq Commission’s Sierra Leone configuration. lence was always possible. He said Israel (S/2009/102). The Special Representative On 25 February, the Special Court for had not made all crossings into Gaza avail- for Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, briefed the Coun- Sierra Leone found three leaders of the rebel able for humanitarian convoys. cil on 26 February in an open meeting. Revolutionary United Front, Issa Sesay, n DPRK: On 12 February, Turkish Ambassa- n Sudan: On 3 February the Council was briefed Morris Kallon and Augustine Gbao, guilty of dor Baki Ilkin, chairman of the 1718 by Assistant Secretary-General for Peace- war crimes and crimes against humanity. Sanctions Committee on the DPRK briefed keeping Operations Edmond Mulet on the n Middle East: On 10 February the Secretary- the Council. continued fighting between Justice and Equal- General told the Council in consultations that n Georgia: On 13 February, the Council ity Movement forces and the Sudanese he had established a UN investigation into adopted resolution 1866 extending the military in Muhajeriya in southern Darfur. On 5 incidents involving death and damage at UN mandate of the UN Observer Mission in February the Secretary-General’s Special premises in Gaza between 27 December and Georgia (UNOMIG) until 15 June. The reso- Representative, Ashraf Qazi, briefed the Coun- 19 January and that he would report back to lution also called for provisions set out in cil (S/PV.6079). On 12 February Council the Council when the investigation is com- paragraph 2(a) (relating to armed forces members had a private meeting with an AU pleted. On 12 February he announced that and heavy military equipment in the security and Arab League delegation led by AU Com- the Board of Inquiry, led by Ian Martin and zone and restricted weapons zone) of the missioner for Peace and Security, Ramtane composed of four members, had begun its 1994 Moscow agreement on a ceasefire Lamamra, to discuss the ICC proceedings. work. On 13 February the president of the >>page 3

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org and separation of forces to be respected, operations and rules of engagement for from his visit, there was some movement. and it welcomed the six-point agreement MONUC. On 23 February Gambari briefed the of 12 August 2008 and implementing of n Timor-Leste: On 19 February, the Council Group of Friends of the Secretary-Gen- measures of 8 September 2008. The reso- held an open debate (S/PV.6085) of the eral. The Secretary-General, in remarks lution asked to report to the Council on the Secretary-General’s report (S/2009/72). to the press following the meeting, noted implementation of the resolution and the The Secretary-General told the Council the amnesty announced by Myanmar on situation on the ground by 15 May. that Timor-Leste had made remarkable 20 February, which reportedly includes n The Democratic Republic of the Congo progress since the attacks on the leaders 23 political prisoners, but reiterated his (DRC): On 17 February the Council was of Timor-Leste a year ago and that in 2009 call for the release of all political prisoners briefed (S/PV.6083) on the humanitarian it could devote its attention to building the including Aung San Suu Kyi. He also said situation in the DRC by Under Secretary- foundations for long-term stability. He said that he was willing to visit Myanmar again General for Humanitarian Affairs John that one of the key priorities should be to build on his May 2008 visit. Special Holmes. Subsequently, the president of reforming the security sector and the Rapporteur on the situation on human the Council conveyed to the press the resumption of policing responsibilities by rights in Myanmar, Tomás Ojea Quintana, Council’s concerns regarding the humani- the national police. The Council is visited Myanmar from 14-19 February, tarian situation in the eastern parts of the expected to adopt a resolution extending where he met with a number of political DRC, the priority of the protection of civil- the mandate of UN Integrated Mission in prisoners and called for the “progressive ians, condemnation of the brutal attacks by Timor-Leste (UNMIT) on 26 February. release of prisoners of conscience”. the Ugandan rebel group, Lord’s Resis- n Myanmar: On 20 February, Ibrahim n Sri Lanka: At press time, the Council was tance Army, in North Kivu and called on Gambari, the Secretary-General’s Spe- expected to be briefed on 27 February by governments to cooperate with UN Mis- cial Advisor on Myanmar, briefed the John Holmes, Under Secretary-General sion in the DRC (MONUC) in the planning Council in informal private consultations for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency and execution of joint operations. on his 31 January-3 February visit to Relief Coordinator, on the humanitarian On 19 February the Secretary-General Myanmar. Following the briefing, Gam- situation in Sri Lanka following his visit to wrote to the Council (S/2009/105) to inform bari said that he had told the Council that that country. it about the recently revised concept of although there was no tangible outcome

UN Support for regional organizations” operating under a prevention. (See SCR’s Update Report on Peacekeeping by UN mandate. The Secretary-General sub- UN Cooperation with Regional and Subre- sequently established a joint AU-UN panel gional Organisations and Conflict Prevention Regional Organisations to consider modalities for supporting such of 14 April 2008.) Expected Council Action peacekeeping operations, in particular While acknowledging that its proposals “will On 18 March the Council will consider the start-up funding, equipment and logistics. not completely address” the challenges to report of the joint AU-UN panel set up by (The proposal had originated in the Secre- peace in Africa, the Panel put forward the the Secretary-General to review options for tary-General’s report on enhancing following recommendations: supporting AU peacekeeping operations. cooperation between the UN and regional n approving the use of UN assessed fund- The panel report was circulated on 24 organisations of 24 March 2008.) ing to support UN authorised AU December. The format of the meeting is On 24 December the panel’s report was peacekeeping operations for up to six expected to be a public meeting chaired by submitted to the Council and the General months on a case by case basis and only the foreign minister of Libya and to have Assembly. The panel included input from when the mission was to transition to UN high-level participation by the AU and the member states, the UN Secretariat, UN management within six months; chair of the panel, Romano Prodi, former agencies involved in peace operations, AU n establishment of a voluntarily funded prime minister of Italy. At press time Coun- institutions and member countries, the EU, multi donor trust fund to build AU peace- cil members were still at an early stage of and existing and potential donors. The keeping capacity (thus allowing the AU to discussion about any Council decisions on panel explored how the UN and the AU move away from ad-hoc and discon- the report. could enhance the predictability, sustain- nected bilateral support arrangements). Background ability and flexibility of financing of UN The fund would consolidate current On 16 April 2008 in resolution 1809, the mandated peace operations undertaken by sources of support for the AU and AU Council recognised the problems that the AU. A particular focus was how to members and secure additional some regional organisations were con- achieve expeditious and effective deploy- resources from current and new donors fronting in maintaining peacekeeping ment of well equipped troops and effective building on the current EU funded African operations. The Council concluded that it mission support arrangements. Peace Facility; was desirable to enhance the “predictabil- n extending the voluntary trust fund concept Significantly, the panel also addressed the ity, sustainability and flexibility of financing to include capacity building to cover early related topic of capacity building for conflict

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  warning, conflict prevention, conflict reso- ommendations have been addressed in UN Documents lution and post-conflict reconstruction; the General Assembly. n developing of the AU’s logistics capacity; Selected Security Council Resolutions Council Dynamics and • S/RES/1863 (16 January 2009) Council members appear to generally n establishment of a joint UN-AU team to renewed authorisation of AMISOM for agree on the value of the report. examine how to implement the panel’s up to six months, approved using UN proposals. Some are sceptical that agreement on for- resources to strengthen AMISOM, and mal approval of the recommendations expressed the Council’s intention to Key Issues could be reached at this stage in the Coun- establish a UN peacekeeping opera- The main issue for the Council is how and cil. These members believe that approving tion by 1 June. when to take up the recommendations. the panel’s recommendations would risk • S/RES/1809 (16 April 2008) was the Responsibility for financial issues rests with possible criticism of encroachment by Gen- resolution welcoming the Secretary- the General Assembly not the Security eral Assembly colleagues. General’s proposal to set up an Council. Current UN financial practice does AU-UN panel to consider the modali- not allow assessed UN funding for peace African and NAM countries on the Council ties of how to support AU operations led by other groups, even when agree that UN financial support should be peacekeeping operations established authorised by the Council. There has been provided for regional missions, citing the under a UN mandate. only one exemption to this—when UN sup- primary responsibility of the UN for ensur- • S/RES/1769 (31 July 2007) estab- port packages were approved for the AU ing global peace and security and the lished UNAMID. Mission in Darfur (AMIS) (S/RES/1706 and consequent need to collaborate in a sub- • S/RES/1706 (31 August 2006) was 1769, S/PRST/2006/55 and A/RES/62/232). stantial way with regional peacekeeping. the resolution on the situation in The second issue—setting up a multi donor The US, UK and Russia have, in the past, Sudan mandating UN assistance trust fund that will be voluntarily financed— registered strong reservations about using to AMIS. may be less controversial. Such trust funds funds from the assessed contributions of • S/RES/1631 (17 October 2005) was involving voluntary financing are within the the UN peacekeeping budget to support the first resolution adopted by the general responsibility of the Secretary-Gen- peacekeeping operations by regional Council on regional organisations. eral. He often sets up such funds after organisations. The new US administration’s • S/RES/1625 (14 September 2005) consultation with the Council. Early Council policy remains unclear. was a declaration on the effectiveness action on this recommendation could there- of the Council’s role in conflict preven- Although some Council members oppose fore raise less problems. tion, calling for the strengthening of UN financial support for peacekeeping cooperation and communication Options operations undertaken by other organisa- between the UN and regional and Options for the Council include: tions at the generic level, they have shown subregional organisations in accor- n waiting and deciding , in light of views an inclination to allow such funding in cer- dance with Chapter VIII (on regional expressed in the 18 March debate, how tain specific cases. One example was the arrangements). best to progress any follow up Council 2006 “light” and “heavy packages” of sup- • S/RES/1497 (1 August 2003) recog- action; port for AMIS prior to transition to the nised the role Economic Community n deciding to begin work prior to the 18 AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNA- of West African States (ECOWAS) March debate on a Council statement or MID) (S/RES/1769). Another is the played in implementing the June resolution endorsing some or all of the Council’s approval in January this year in 2003 ceasefire in Liberia and cited Panel’s findings and recommendations; resolution 1863 to use UN resources to Chapter VIII. n drafting for adoption on 18 March a strengthen the AU Mission in Somalia • S/RES/1464 (4 February 2003) wel- Council statement welcoming the report (AMISOM). (This has not yet been comed the actions of ECOWAS in but explicitly deciding not to take action approved by the General Assembly.) response to the violence in Côte on the assessed financing issue but A greater level of agreement among Coun- d’Ivoire in 2002 with reference to deciding instead to refer it to the General cil members may be possible on the panel’s Chapter VII and Chapter VIII. Assembly for action (article 11(2) of the other key recommendation to set up a vol- • S/RES/1318 (7 September 2000) was Charter contemplates the Security untary funded multi donor trust fund. the adoption of the Millennium Summit Council bringing issues before the declaration on maintaining peace and General Assembly); At this stage, while Council members gener- security, especially in Africa. n supportively communicating to the Sec- ally expect the panel’s recommendations to • S/RES/1197 (18 September 1998) retary-General (perhaps in a letter from set the tone for further deliberations on the was on the need for the UN to provide the president) that the Council members way ahead, it is unclear how far they would welcome and agree with the proposal to like the Council to go, bearing in mind the set up a voluntary funded trust fund; and responsibilities of the General Assembly. n deferring all action until the panel’s rec-

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org support to regional and subregional lighted the problem of children and organisations and to strengthen coor- armed conflict. dination between the UN and those • S/PRST/1997/46 (25 September SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT organisations. 1997) noted that addressing the chal- Monthly Selected Presidential Statements lenges of conflict in Africa required a MAR 2009FORECAST comprehensive approach and called • S/PRST/2007/42 (6 November 2007) on the Secretary-General to produce a was a presidential statement on the report to address the issue. • S/2006/590 (28 July 2006) was the role of regional and subregional • S/PRST/1994/22 (3 May 1994) said report A regional-global security part- organisations in the maintenance of that regional and sub-regional organi- nership: challenges and opportunities. international peace and security. sations should be taken into account • A/59/2005 (21 March 2005) was the • S/PRST/2007/31 (28 August 2007) when setting up new peacekeeping report, In Larger Freedom: Towards requested the Secretary-General to operations. Development, Security and Human submit a report on the options for Rights for All. Selected Letters further implementation of resolution • A/59/565 (2 December 2004) and 1625. • S/2008/813 (24 December 2008) was Corr. 1 (6 December 2004) was the • S/PRST/2007/7 (28 March 2007) was the letter from the Secretary-General report of the High-Level Panel on a presidential statement on relations forwarding the AU-UN panel report on Threats, Challenges and Change. between the UN and regional organi- how to support AU peacekeeping • S/2000/809 (21 August 2000) was sations, particularly the AU. operations established under UN the Brahimi report on peacekeeping • S/PRST/2006/55 (19 December 2006) mandate to the Council president. Selected General Assembly Resolutions· called for the immediate deployment • S/2008/229 (8 April 2008) was a letter of light and heavy support packages from the permanent representative of • A/RES/60/1 (24 October 2005) to AMIS and endorsed the phased South Africa forwarding the concept was the World Summit Outcome approach towards a hybrid AU-UN paper on the relationship between the Document. force agreed by the AU Peace and UN and regional organisations, in par- • A/RES/49/57 (17 February 1995) was Security Council. ticular the AU, in the maintenance of the Declaration on Enhancement of • S/PRST/2006/39 (20 September international peace and security. Cooperation between the UN and 2006) welcomed the progress made in • S/2007/640 (29 October 2007) was Regional Arrangements or Agencies realising the goals of resolution 1631 the letter from the permanent repre- in the Maintenance of International and urged contributions to the capac- sentative of Indonesia forwarding the Peace and Security. ity building of regional organisations concept paper on the relationship Other and subregional organisations, between the UN and regional organi- • S/PV.5868 and resumption 1 (16 April particularly of the AU and African sations in the maintenance of 2008) was the debate combining the subregional organisations. international peace and security. thematic issues of UN cooperation • S/PRST/2004/44 (19 November 2004) • S/2007/148 (14 March 2007) was the with regional organisations and con- recognised the importance of letter from the permanent representa- flict prevention and resolution, in strengthening cooperation with tive of South Africa forwarding the particular in Africa. the AU in order to help build its concept paper on the relationship • S/PV.3819 (25 September 1997) was capacity to deal with collective between the UN and regional organi- the first ministerial-level debate on the security challenges. sations, in particular the AU, in the situation in Africa. • S/PRST/2004/27 (20 July 2004) was maintenance of international peace the statement after the Council’s and security. Other Relevant Facts debate on cooperation between the • S/2005/567 (29 August 2005) was the AU-UN Panel on Modalities for Support UN and regional organisations in sta- conclusions of the sixth high-level to AU Peacekeeping Operations bilisation processes. meeting between the Secretary-Gen- • Romano Prodi (Italy), Chair • S/PRST/1998/35 (30 November 1998) eral and regional organisations. • James Dobbins (USA) reaffirmed the increasingly important Selected Secretary-General’s Reports • Jean-Pierre Halbwachs (Mauritius) role of regional arrangements in main- • S/2008/186 (24 March 2008) was the • Monica Juma (Kenya) taining peace and security. Secretary-General’s latest report on • Toshiyuki Niwa (Japan) • S/PRST/1998/28 (16 September enhancing cooperation between the • Behrooz Sadry (Iran) 1998) focused on enhancing Africa’s UN and regional organisations, in peacekeeping capacity and high- particular the AU.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  Haiti In November, the Secretary-General com- Finally, the Council recognised the need for missioned the economist Paul Collier a high-level donor conference. (This is Expected Council Action (author of The Bottom Billion: Why the Poor- scheduled for April in Washington.) The next Secretary-General’s report on the est Countries are Failing and What Can be The Council did not take up the 2 October UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUS- Done About It) to conduct a study assess- letter from Haitian President René Préval TAH) is expected by 9 March. It is likely to ing the impact of the 2008 food crisis and requesting that reference to Chapter VII of provide an overview of developments hurricanes on Haiti’s economy and propos- the UN Charter (action with respect to threats regarding the implementation of indicators ing a strategy for achieving economic to peace, breaches of peace and acts of of progress in key areas of stabilisation. security. Collier visited Haiti from 1 to 5 aggression) be removed from MINUSTAH’s December and submitted a report in Janu- From 11 to 14 March the Council will con- mandate. President Préval argued that this ary. His recommendations focus on job duct a mission to Haiti, the first since April would contribute to creating a favourable creation, provision of basic services to the 2005. Costa Rica is the lead country. The climate for foreign investments. Clearly, population, the achievement of food visit was originally envisaged for Septem- Council members considered that this security and environmental sustainability. ber 2008 but was postponed because Haiti proposal was misjudged. was recovering from a series of hurricanes. Human rights in Haiti have also been Briefing the Council on 8 October the Sec- addressed. Following a visit from 2 to 5 The main goal for the visit appears to be retary-General’s Special Representative November, UN High Commissioner for assessing progress in stabilisation, taking for Haiti, Hédi Annabi, said the need to Human Rights Navi Pillay highlighted that into account last year’s setbacks from the respond to natural disasters in September Haitians face several human rights issues, hurricanes and the food crisis and in par- had helped Haitian politicians unblock including lack of access to food and water, ticular assessing implementation of the the five month old political standoff and prolonged detention without trial and poor mandate of the MINUSTAH. generate a sense of solidarity. He added, prison conditions. Independent UN expert, however, that historic tendencies towards On 19 March Costa Rican Ambassador Michel Forst, visited at the end of November political confrontation could easily Jorge Urbina is expected to brief the Coun- and, while recognising that Haiti had made reemerge in the context of the 19 April elec- cil on the visit. progress in the area of civil and political tions. He warned that the suffering created rights, urged the government to make fur- by the economic crisis and natural disas- Key Recent Developments ther progress, especially improving the In late August and early September, hurri- ters produced a reservoir of discontent that penal system. He also stressed the need to canes killed about 800 people in Haiti and could be manipulated for political reasons. tackle corruption and economic exclusion. led to around $1 billion in damage (accord- He then highlighted MINUSTAH’s humani- ing to World Bank estimates). The UN On 14 October the Council adopted resolu- tarian role in supporting the response to launched an appeal in September seeking tion 1840 renewing the mandate of the hurricane catastrophe and discussed nearly $108 million to provide humanitarian MINUSTAH for one year and further detail- MINUSTAH’s accomplishments and help in the next six months, but only 48 per- ing its mandate. At that time the Council upcoming challenges in terms of meeting cent had been pledged as of December. recognised that natural catastrophes and indicators of progress elaborated by the price hikes for food and fuel had adversely Secretary-General in his consolidation On 15 October the UN Humanitarian and affected Haiti’s long-term stability and secu- plan. Development was not the business of Resident Coordinator for Haiti, Joël Bou- rity. On the political side, it encouraged the peacekeeping operations, although they troue, said some three million Haitians Special Representative of the Secretary- had the task to create an environment lacked food security. He added that the UN General to facilitate dialogue between the conducive to economic and social devel- did not have the capacity, without further Haitian government and relevant political opment, he said. He finally pointed out that contributions, to provide water and sanita- actors to ensure implementation of the advancing longer-term planning for imple- tion in emergency shelters. This was National Strategy for Growth and Poverty menting the Poverty Reduction Strategy, reiterated by UN Emergency Relief Coordi- Reduction. MINUSTAH was also given a taking into account the damage created by nator John Holmes who said after a visit to greater coordination mandate with the UN the hurricanes, was needed. Haiti in October that the devastation from country team. The resolution also invited the hurricanes had dealt a severe blow to On 16 February the Haitian Electoral Coun- member states to coordinate with MINUS- efforts to combat poverty. cil announced that it had barred candidates TAH to address the cross-border trafficking from the Lavalas Family party, the party of Banditry and kidnappings have risen of persons, drugs, arms and other illegal former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide recently, leading MINUSTAH to conduct a activities. It strongly condemned the grave who lives in exile in South Africa, from run- special security operation in urban centres. violations against children affected by ning in the Senate elections, due to failure to This was followed in December by a large- armed violence including sexual abuse of submit registration on time. Given the popu- scale anti-drugs operation in the south of girls and reaffirmed resolution 1820 on sex- larity of the party in Haiti, this has raised fears the country. ual violence against women, as well as that it may lead to political instability. MINUSTAH’s human rights mandate.

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org and the recent human rights assessments Developments in the Human are also relevant in that regard. Rights Council SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Evaluating preparations for the upcoming On 24 September 2008, the President of Monthly elections is a further issue, especially the Human Rights Council made a state- regarding recent developments. Frequent MAR 2009 ment welcoming the formation of the FORECAST elections in Haiti are costly and are consid- new Haitian government, the coopera- ered as a potential factor for further tion between the Haitian National Police continue to believe that rehabilitation activi- destabilisation. Although President Préval and MINUSTAH in curbing violence, and ties should not be conducted by a has expressed his willingness to reform the the adoption of new regulations on the peacekeeping mission. electoral system, constitutional reform judiciary. The statement also expressed remains a divisive issue. Canada, one of the biggest donors to Haiti, deep concern at the deterioration of Hai- as a member of the Group of Friends, has tians’ standard of living, partly as a result A further issue is cooperation among argued that MINUSTAH should play a stron- of the economic crisis. Finally, he wel- international actors in Haiti for the imple- ger role in the political reconciliation process. comed the appointment of Michel Forst mentation of the Poverty Reduction as independent expert and welcomed Strategy. This has been a major area of For the US, security seems to remain a pri- the Haitian government’s request to concern for the Council, which in resolu- ority. The US also has a priority that extend his mission until September tion 1840 enhanced MINUSTAH’s mandate MINUSTAH utilises resources effectively 2010. (PRST/9/1) to ensure better coordination among all and efficiently. The US suggested including actors. The role of regional actors in Haiti a mention in the terms of reference of how Key Issues may also be explored. insights on lessons learned from MINUS- The terms of reference for the Council’s TAH could inform Council’s consideration mission, drafted by the Group of Friends of A related issue is assessing the general of broader peacekeeping issues. Haiti (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, humanitarian situation in Haiti. A main goal France, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and the US) will also be to grasp the extent of economic Mexico, a new Council member, recently and approved by the Council on 20 Febru- and humanitarian setbacks suffered during joined the Group of Friends of Haiti. While ary, reflect a number of key issues that the the past months and their impact on meet- Mexico is not a troop contributor, it has Council will address during its visit. ing the benchmarks developed by the recently sent police officers specialised in Secretary-General. A disaster and risk kidnapping to Haiti. Reaffirming the Council’s support for Haiti reduction strategy may be important as and for current efforts towards stabilisation UN Documents Haiti has been hit several times by devastat- is a key issue. At the same time, the terms of ing storms. Latest Security Council Resolution reference also reflect the importance of Hai- • S/RES/1840 (14 October 2008) tian ownership and primary responsibility in Finally, the Council will review progress renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate the stabilisation process. There seems to in tackling cross-border illicit trafficking for one year. be a realisation that the success of interna- of persons, drugs, arms and other illegal Latest Secretary-General’s Report tional involvement in Haiti will require strong activities. Haitian engagement at all stages of the pro- • S/2008/586 (27 August 2008) pre- Council and Wider Dynamics cess. Therefore, a key issue for the Council sented a consolidation plan with The draft of terms of reference was not con- is to send a message of support while reaf- key indicators to measure and troversial within the Council. There is a firming basic expectations from the Haitian track progress. general view within the Council that the time authorities, particularly regarding deeply Report of the Latest Security Council is not ripe for placing MINUSTAH under a needed political dialogue and national Visit to Haiti Chapter VI mandate as the situation contin- reconciliation as well as socioeconomic • S/2005/302 (6 May 2005) ues to be extremely fragile, and the Council development. A related key issue, which Latest Briefing to the Council needs to continue to send a message of may be addressed during the visit, is clarify- strong engagement. Also, in practice the • S/PV.5990 (8 October 2008) ing that the Chapter VII mandate does not actual operations of the mission need to was a briefing by Hédi Annabi. contain the negative implications that Haiti’s remain the same. Activities under a Chapter Latest Letter government seems to fear. VI mandate would therefore not differ from • S/2008/640 (2 September 2008) was a Another issue is assessing progress made activities under Chapter VII. This issue is letter from Uruguay enclosing a Joint in all key areas of stabilisation: political dia- likely to also be discussed during the visit. Communiqué following a meeting of logue, extension of state authority, security Members of the Group of Friends seem to deputy ministers of foreign affairs and sector reform, rule of law and human rights, be less divided than in the past over issues deputy ministers of defence of the Latin and social and economic development. This of security versus development in MINUS- American “2x9 Mechanism” on Haiti, assessment will be crucial for future Council TAH’s mandate. However, some Council held in Montevideo on 29 August. discussions on the mandate of MINUSTAH, members, including Russia and China

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  n Haiti: Confronting the Gangs of Port- discussed the need to open talks with Other Relevant Facts au-Prince, Michael Dziedzic and insurgent groups that have so far refused Special Representative of the Secretary- Robert Perito, Special Report No. 208, to join the peace process. General and Head of MINUSTAH Institute of Peace, Sep- On 13 February Ahmed appointed Omar Hédi Annabi () tember 2008 Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as the new prime Principal Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General minister. Sharmarke, the son of a former Somali president, belongs to the Darod Luiz Carlos da Costa (Brazil) Somalia clan. Ahmed is from the clan, thus Force Commander Expected Council Action rectifying clan imbalance which had Major-General Carlos Alberto dos Santos In March, the Council will receive a report bedeviled the national leadership previ- Cruz (Brazil) from the Secretary-General. Also in March, ously. His nomination was approved by a Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator, the General Assembly is expected to take large parliamentary majority. Shortly after UNDP Representative up the funding of the UN logistical-support taking office, Sharmarke reportedly said Joël Boutroue (France) package to the African Union Mission in he wanted to hold talks with Al-Shabaab. Somalia (AMISOM) endorsed by the Coun- Size and Composition of Mission On 20 February he announced his new cil on 16 January by resolution 1863. A cabinet, naming 36 ministers. • Authorised strength as of 15 August report on piracy off the coast of Somalia is 2006: military component of up to also expected, including advice on a pos- The security situation remained volatile. On 7,200 troops and police component sible UN coordination and leadership role 4 February four insurgent groups, including of up to 1,951 officers. as requested on 2 December by resolution the Eritrea-based faction of ARS but not Al- • Current strength as of 30 December 1846. A briefing by Ahmedou Ould-Abdal- Shabaab, announced plans to merge into a 2008: 9,089 total uniformed person- lah, the Special Representative of the new group called Hisbi Islam (Islamic party) nel, including 7,036 troops and Secretary-General, is likely. It is unclear to fight the newly elected president and the 2,053 police. whether there will be any Council action. anticipated unity government. There were • Contributors of military personnel: reports of new clashes in the central region Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Key Recent Developments of Somalia between Al-Shabaab and Ahlu Chile, Croatia, Ecuador, France, On 30 January Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed Sunna Waljamaca, a moderate Sunni group Guatemala, , Nepal, Paraguay, was elected by the supporting the government. There were Peru, Phillipines, Sri Lanka, US and newly expanded parliament which now also reports that Ethiopian troops reentered Uruguay includes 150 new opposition members Somalia on 18 February. • Contributors of police personnel: from the Alliance for the Reliberation of Argentina, Benin, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Somalia (ARS). Seventy-five parliamentary In Mogadishu, insurgent attacks against Cameroon, Canada, Central African seats are being kept vacant and will be allo- AMISOM continued. Eleven Burundian Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colum- cated to representatives of civil society and peacekeepers were killed in an attack on 22 bia, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, DR Congo, opposition groups that have not yet joined February for which Al-Shabaab claimed , El Salvador, France, Grenada, the peace process. Ahmed won in the sec- responsibility. On 19 February more than Guinea, India, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, ond round of voting after Prime Minister Nur 300 clerics and clan elders gathered in Madagascar, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Nige- Hassan Hussein, the other leading candi- Mogadishu and reportedly called for ria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, date, withdrew. The Council welcomed the AMISOM to leave within 120 days. Russian Federation, Rwanda, Sene- election of Ahmed in a press statement on The UN High Commissioner for Refugees gal, Serbia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Togo, 3 February. announced that for the first time in two Turkey, US, Uruguay and Ahmed travelled directly to the AU summit years, internally displaced persons had Cost taking place in Addis Ababa and also started returning to certain parts of the 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $601.58 million attended a meeting of the Intergovernmen- city. Still, civilians were reportedly fleeing tal Authority on Development. On 7 other parts to escape fighting. On 4 Febru- Useful Additional Sources February he arrived in Mogadishu to meet ary the director of Horn Afrik radio, Said n Haiti: From Natural Catastrophe to Eco- senior security officials from the Transi- Tahlil Ahmed, was killed in the Bakara mar- nomic Security, Report for the Secretary tional Federal Government (TFG) and ket in Mogadishu by unidentified militias. General, Paul Collier, Oxford University, representatives from ARS and the next day He was the second Somali journalist killed January 2009 appointed a commission to oversee the this year. n Haiti After the Storms: Weather and Con- integration of TFG and ARS security forces. On 30 January the Secretary-General flict, Robert M. Perito, US Institute of He also met clan elders and Islamic Courts Peace, November 2008 reported that it would take time before the Union representatives and reportedly UN support package approved by the

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Council could be delivered. The required Key Issues budgetary approval by the General Assem- Sustaining political progress seems to be bly was scheduled for March. The report the immediate key issue. Implementing the SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT stressed the immediate need for strong UN support package for AMISOM is also a Monthly bilateral assistance, both through contribu- pressing issue. However, the Council role is MAR 2009 tions to the trust fund that will be set up in limited now that the ball is in the General FORECAST accordance with resolution 1863, as well as Assembly’s court. In the meantime, encour- about cost and ensuring that standard through contributions of personnel, equip- aging further political progress may finally oversight procedures apply. In March, ment and other resources. lead to results on the ground and reduce another briefing on the support package is the need for outside forces. On 12 February the Council was briefed in therefore likely. closed consultations by B. Lynn Pascoe, Piracy remains a problem, but the issue has Several members—including the US, UK, Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, shifted from the need for stronger measures France and Russia—seem hesitant about and Susana Malcorra, Under Secretary- to implementing resolutions in place. Dis- any significant UN coordinating role on General for the Department of Field Support. cussions are likely to be shaped by the piracy and the Secretariat seems reluctant Malcorra did not provide an estimate of the upcoming report from the Secretary-Gen- to take on any major new tasks. overall cost of the AMISOM support pack- eral, including on the issue of a possible UN age, noting that it was still in the process of coordinating role. There are already several UN Documents being finalised. competing coordination mechanisms in Selected Security Council Resolutions place, including the US-led International Anti-piracy operations off the coast of Contact Group and the EU’s Maritime Secu- • S/RES/1863 (16 January 2009) Somalia gathered increasing support. rity Centre. While the UN is unlikely to take renewed authorisation of AMISOM for Japan announced on 28 January that it had on any ambitious role in the region, the up to six months, approved using UN ordered its navy to prepare for possible question is whether some type of secretariat resources to strengthen AMISOM and deployment to join international forces function to coordinate existing mechanisms expressed the Council’s intention to already in place. There appeared to be a might add value. Longer-term maritime establish a UN peacekeeping opera- reduction in piracy activity. The International security is clearly linked to a functioning tion by 1 June 2009. Maritime Organization convened a regional government and the rule of law. • S/RES/1853 (19 December 2008) meeting in Djibouti that adopted a new code renewed the mandate of the Monitor- of conduct on anti-piracy cooperation on 29 Options ing Group for 12 months. January, including provisions on informa- Options for the Council include: • S/RES/1851 (16 December 2008) tion sharing and arrest and investigation n welcoming the establishment of a unity expanded the anti-piracy authorisation and prosecution of persons suspected of government and providing much more to include action on land in Somalia piracy. It is similar to an Asian regional precise steering for the Special Repre- and called for enhanced coordination. arrangement of 2006. sentative’s role, including clearer • S/RES/1846 (2 December 2008) direction on political reconciliation; Developments in the Sanctions renewed authorisation of action against n taking up the Secretary-General’s piracy Committee piracy in Somalia for 12 months. report with a view to determining how the • S/RES/1844 (20 November 2008) The Somalia Sanctions Committee did UN can add further value; imposed targeted sanctions. not hold any meetings in February but is n proposing names in the Somalia Sanc- • S/RES/1838 (7 October 2008) called expected to meet in March. It has yet to tions Committee of individuals and for intensified action against piracy agree on the list of individuals and enti- entities to be targeted by sanctions; and in Somalia. ties to be targeted by the expanded n implementing the recommendations of Selected Presidential Statement sanctions regime adopted by the Coun- the Somalia Monitoring Group. cil in resolution 1844 of 20 November. • S/PRST/2008/33 (4 September 2008) The resolution encouraged member Council Dynamics requested detailed planning on an states to submit proposals to the Com- African Council members seem concerned international stabilisation force and mittee for inclusion on the targeted about the lead time for deployment of the peacekeeping operation. sanctions list. In addition to discussing AMISOM support package. They are mind- Selected Reports of the the sanctions list, the Committee is ful that the UN budget is the prerogative of Secretary-General the General Assembly’s Fifth Committee, expected to revise its guidelines. At • S/2009/60 (30 January 2009) was the but there are also concerns that bilateral press time the Secretary-General had report requested by resolution 1863 support is not proving adequate. Monitor- yet to reestablish the Monitoring Group. on equipment and services to be ing progress is therefore seen as important. provided to AMISOM. Other Council members are concerned

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  Isaias Afwerki criticised the Council for • S/2008/709 (17 November 2008) Djibouti/Eritrea considering action against Eritrea but was the most recent regular report. Expected Council Action declining to take the same steps against Latest Monitoring Group’s Report The Council is expecting a report from the Ethiopia. He accused the Council of dou- • S/2008/769 (10 December 2008) Secretary-General (due 25 February) on the ble standards. Djibouti refuted Eritrea’s Other border dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea. version in a letter on 4 December. Eritrea did not comply with the Council’s • S/2009/80 (4 February 2009) was On 14 January, resolution 1862 demanded demand in resolution 1862 that it withdraw a letter from the US informing the that Eritrea withdraw its forces to the posi- its forces from the disputed area by 18 Feb- Council about the first meeting of the tions of the status quo ante no later than five ruary and engage in dialogue. It seems Contact Group on piracy off the Coast weeks from the date of the resolution. It likely that the Council will take up the issue of Somalia. called on Eritrea to acknowledge the border again in March. • SC/9588 (3 February 2009) was a dispute and engage in dialogue with press statement welcoming the elec- Key Recent Developments Djibouti. The Council also decided to review tion of Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed On 11 September the Council received the the situation based on a report by the as the new president of Somalia. report from the fact-finding mission -dis Secretary-General. • S/2008/804 (19 December 2008) patched to the region in response to Eritrea immediately rejected the Council’s was the letter from the Secretary- Eritrea’s refusal to withdraw its troops as demand. In a statement from its foreign General outlining additional requested by the Council’s presidential ministry on 15 January, it called the resolu- proposals to address security statement of 12 June. (For more back- tion ill-considered and unbalanced and challenges in Somalia. ground information, please see our Update repeated that it had not occupied any land Report on Djibouti/Eritrea of 23 June 2008.) belonging to Djibouti. President Guelleh on Other Relevant Facts The mission was refused entry into Eritrea 24 January said in an interview that Djibouti Special Representative of the and visited only Ethiopia and Djibouti. As a would not be pushed into war with Eritrea Secretary-General result, it was unable to give a full account of and would pursue all legal means to solve Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah () the situation. Eritrea also rejected similar the conflict. UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) missions proposed by the Arab League and • Maximum authorised size: 44 the AU, as well as other proposals for dia- Key Issues international and 28 local civilians logue. The mission reported that Eritrea, The key issue for the Council is how to per- • Cost: $6.4 million (budget for the unlike Djibouti, had not withdrawn its troops suade Eritrea to withdraw its forces and period 1 January to 30 June 2009) from the contested area. It recommended engage in a dialogue with Djibouti to solve • Duration: 15 April 1995 to present; that the Secretary-General use his good the conflict peacefully. Based on Eritrea’s mandate expires on 31 December offices to establish a dialogue between the actions and statements so far, it seems 2009 two countries. unlikely that it will respond to any ratcheting up of Council demands. Chairman of the Somalia Sanctions On 23 October the Council held an Committee open meeting to hear a statement by Dji- A related issue is whether a change in Claude Heller (Mexico) bouti’s President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, approach might lead to a more flexible AMISOM who called on the Council to take urgent Eritrean attitude. Council members will be and effective action. In response, Eritrea • Maximum authorised strength: reluctant to give the appearance of reward- denied taking any land from Djibouti, called 8,000 troops plus maritime and ing intransigence. However, the issue is the conflict “a manufactured problem”, and air components. also to some extent seen as complicated pointed instead to Ethiopia’s occupation of • Strength as of January 2009: about because the former US administration Eritrean territories. 3,450 Ugandan and Burundian troops under George W. Bush, was seen as a strong ally of Ethiopia and did not allow the • Key resource contributors: US, EU, Eritrea continued to reject any attempts at Council to pressure it for its intransigence Italy, Sweden, China and the Arab solving the conflict and sent several letters on border issues with Eritrea. League. to the Council denying the existence of any • Duration: February 2007 to present: dispute with Djibouti. On 24 October an Another issue is whether to see the prob- AU mandate expires on 16 March Eritrean letter accused the US of orches- lems as compartmentalised or as part of a 2009 and Council authorisation trating the Djibouti/Eritrea conflict as a wider regional dimension. Eritrea seems expires on 16 July 2009. “diversionary scheme”. A 4 November let- intent on using the Djibouti crisis as lever- ter appealed to the Council to address age to get the Council to address the Ethiopia’s occupation of Eritrean territo- unresolved issue of Ethiopian behaviour. ries. On 10 November, Eritrean President

10 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org A further issue is how and when to engage chairmanship and it will also have the presi- regional organisations more effectively on dency of the Council in March. the problem. There were preliminary reports SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT The possibility of sanctions has apparently that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who Monthly been raised informally. Most seem to on 2 February became chair of the AU, had favour a cautious approach that would MAR 2009 offered to mediate between Ethiopia and FORECAST avoid imposing sanctions at this stage. At Eritrea on the border dispute. the same time there is awareness that the A final issue, if efforts to open a dialogue Council needs some strategy in response • S.PV.6000 (23 October 2008) was a on reasonable terms prove impossible, is to Eritrea’s refusal to comply with the Council debate in which Djibouti’s whether stronger measures, such as sanc- demands in resolution 1862 to avoid President Ismail Omar Guelleh tions, would be considered. A related issue losing credibility. participated. is the Council’s credibility if, as happened in • S/2008/635 (3 October) was the note Somalia for over a decade, sanctions were UN Documents from Djibouti requesting that its presi- dent be allowed to address the easily circumvented. By contrast, doing Selected Security Council Resolution Council. nothing also raises the credibility issue. • S/RES/1862 (14 January 2009) • S/2008/602 (11 September 2008) was demanded that Eritrea withdraw its Options the report from the fact-finding mission forces to the positions of the status Options for the Council include: that was dispatched at the Council’s quo ante within five weeks and n requesting the Secretary-General to con- request. requested a report from the Secretary- tinue his good offices efforts, thus buying • S/2008/446 (7 July 2008) was a letter General by 25 February. some more time; from Eritrea stating that Djibouti’s n deciding to adopt a more regional Selected Security Council Presidential accusations and the Council’s presi- Statement approach by signaling willingness to dential statement of 12 June were part address all other relevant issues and • S/PRST/2008/20 (12 June 2008) of an attempt at diverting attention create space for private discussions to called for a ceasefire between Djibouti from Ethiopia’s acts of aggression explore possible modalities; and and Eritrea. against Eritrea. n deciding to adopt targeted sanctions on Other • SC/9376 (25 June 2008) was the Eritrea subject to a new deadline if it con- • S/2009/28 (12 January 2009) was a Council press statement on Djibouti tinues to reject the Council’s demands. letter from Eritrea expressing disap- and Eritrea requesting that a fact-find- ing mission be sent to the region. Council Dynamics pointment at the discussions in the • S/PV.5924 (24 June 2008) was a There is agreement in the Council that Council to adopt a resolution. Council debate in which Djibouti and Djibouti is the aggrieved party and that • S/2008/766 (4 December 2008) was Eritrea presented their views on the Eritrea must withdraw from the contested a letter from Djibouti refuting Eritrea’s crisis between the two countries. area and engage in dialogue. There seems statements on the crisis. • S/2008/294 (5 May 2008) was a letter to be little sympathy for Eritrea’s position. Its • S/2008/700 (10 November 2008) from Djibouti bringing the border previous actions that led to withdrawal of was a letter from Eritrea criticising the situation to the Council’s attention. the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea are Council for considering action against raised by some members as examples of Eritrea and, referring to Ethiopia, related irresponsible behaviour. Many accusing the Council of double Council members recognise Eritrea’s legiti- standards. Kosovo mate concerns over the unresolved • S/2008/690 (4 November 2008) was a Expected Council Action Ethiopia/Eritrea border issue, and that a letter from Eritrea drawing attention to In March the Secretary-General’s report long-term solution may require a compre- Ethiopia’s occupation of Eritrean terri- on the UN Interim Administration Mission hensive approach, but are unwilling to be tory and calling on the Council to act. in Kosovo (UNMIK) will be on the table. seen to be rewarding aggressive action. • S/2008/673 (24 October 2008) was a letter from Eritrea, referring to the This will be the first report that will give At press time, Council members were wait- circulation of the report from the Eritrea- Council members a sense of how the deli- ing to see what the Secretary-General’s Ethiopia Border Commission as a cate compromise, which was successfully report would conclude and also how the document of the Council on 3 Octo- brokered by the UN in November 2008 policy of the new US administration would ber, accusing the US of orchestrating and which permitted the EU Rule of Law unfold. France, as the lead country, may the Eritrea/Djibouti conflict as a Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) to be deployed want to propose action in March. Libya “diversionary scheme”. in Kosovo, is working out in practice. The is another key player with its new AU Council will be interested in the Secretary- General’s assessment now that EULEX

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 11 has deployed throughout Kosovo under while it supported the strictly status-neutral A possible option is a presidential the UN umbrella. It is also awaiting further deployment of EULEX, it did not believe statement encouraging progress in the details of progress in implementing the that EULEX’s mandate included any por- implementation of the six-point proposal. Secretary-General’s six-point proposal for tion of the Secretary-General’s former Other options in any statement include: administering northern Kosovo, covering Special Envoy for the Future Status Pro- n requesting the Secretary-General to the areas of police, judiciary, boundary cess for Kosovo, Martti Ahtisaari’s, report on UNMIK’s downsizing over the management, protection of religious “Comprehensive Proposal for the Kosovo year (in order to assess if resources from facilities, transport and customs. Status Settlement”. Kosovo could be used in other peace- At press time, the format for the Council On 21 January the Kosovo Security Force keeping missions); and meeting had not been decided, but it is pos- (KFS) was formed. It replaced the Kosovo n deciding on a six-month reporting cycle, sible that it will be similar to that of the 26 Protection Corps (KPC), a quasi military rather than quarterly. November open debate where the foreign body made up largely of former ethnic Key Issues ministers of Serbia and Kosovo participated, Albanian veterans. The day after the KFS A key issue is whether Council members will (under Rules 37 and 39 of the Security was formed, a grenade was thrown at its address Serbia’s complaints over the estab- Council’s provisional rules of procedure). barracks, damaging the building but caus- lishment of the KFS. Serbia is expected to ing no injuries. There were also protests by The UNMIK report and briefing are not raise this issue again at the March meeting. former KPC members who had not been expected to result in any Council action. accepted into the KFS. Serbia sent a letter A related issue is the recruitment proce- Key Recent Developments on 21 January to NATO and the UN protest- dure of KFS personnel. This process was The Secretary-General’s report of 24 Novem- ing the formation of the KFS. In the letter, not handled by the UN but by NATO and ber covered UNMIK’s activities from June to Serbia says it considers the KFS as a para- Kosovo’s government. However, Council October 2008. It described how UNMIK has military organisation and a threat to members will not have forgotten the prob- begun to adapt its structure and profile within Serbia’s national security. It also points out lems faced in recent years over the police the framework of resolution 1244 (which that the KFS was not created in accordance recertification process in Bosnia and Her- established the mission in 1999) as outlined with resolution 1244 and asks for it to zegovina. (The International Police Task in the Secretary-General’s June 2008 special be disbanded. Force was involved in certifying and decer- report on Kosovo as well as UNMIK’s evolv- tifying Bosnian police officers. A total of On 17 February Kosovo marked the first ing relationship with EULEX. 150 cases of decertified officers were anniversary of its unilateral declaration of referred to the Bosnian courts as it was felt In a presidential statement on 26 November independence. Fifty-four UN members have that the process had not been impartial following its discussion of the report, the formally recognised Kosovo’s indepen- and lacked a good review mechanism. The Council welcomed Belgrade’s and Pristi- dence. The day before the anniversary, Council eventually had to become involved na’s “intentions to cooperate with the Serbia said that it would never recognise in sorting out the issue.) (Please see our international community”, while taking into Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of indepen- Update Report on Bosnia and Herzegovina account their positions. It also welcomed dence and called for a new round of of 14 May 2007.) the cooperation between the UN and other negotiations on Kosovo’s future status once international actors within the framework of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Another key issue is encouragement for resolution 1244. reaches a decision on the legality of Koso- implementation of the six-point plan. There vo’s declaration of independence. (The ICJ has been little movement since last Novem- The 26 November presidential statement is not expected to provide its advisory opin- ber. Dissenting views over the format of the therefore provided the basis for EULEX to ion before 2010.) six-point proposal talks are slowing down take over police, justice and customs from the process. Kosovo’s government contin- UNMIK. On 9 December EULEX officially In mid-February the Secretary-General’s ues to be concerned about Serbs in Kosovo began its mandate in Kosovo and EULEX Special Representative for Kosovo, being given too much autonomy in the staff members were deployed throughout Lamberto Zannier, accepted an invitation areas of justice, police and customs. Given Kosovo. EULEX submitted its first report to meet Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk the fragility of the situation in northern through Javier Solana, EU High Repre- Jeremić and Minister for Kosovo-Metohija Kosovo, the possibility of a collapse of the sentative for the Common Foreign and Goran Bogdanović. The visit took place six-point proposal discussions is a signifi- Security Policy, to the Secretary-General on 19 February. cant risk. Loss of momentum could create on 13 February. Options incentives for the underlying tensions On 12 December, in a letter to the Secre- One option is for the Council to receive a between Serbs and Albanians to be manip- tary-General, Serbia made it clear that briefing and hear statements from inter- ulated by spoilers. ested parties and Council members but take no action.

12 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Also an issue (although not one currently ful adoption of the November 2008 for the Council) is the effect of the present presidential statement and a move towards level of recognition for Kosovo. For instance, a more cordial US-Russia relationship may SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT will Kosovo’s applications for membership result in smoother dynamics over this issue Monthly to the World Bank and IMF be blocked? in 2009. Russia’s interests in the similar set MAR 2009 of issues in Georgia may also influence its FORECAST A related future issue for the Council is the approach, particularly if western countries consequence of Kosovo becoming a frozen are taking a less belligerent position on conflict situation in the absence of progress • S/2007/168 and Add. 1 (26 March Kosovo. towards resolving its status by the interna- 2007) was the letter transmitting UN tional community. A soft partition between Serbia continues to take a firm position and Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari’s report the rest of Kosovo and the north may lead to has lobbied Council members and the on Kosovo’s future status and the a Cyprus-like scenario, with a solution larger UN. It remains to be seen how the Comprehensive Proposal for the becoming more difficult as the years go by. Secretary-General and the Council will Kosovo Status Settlement. handle Serbia’s demands, such as the dis- Selected Reports A future issue is how to deal with revenue banding of the KFS. New Council members • S/2008/692 (24 November 2008) was from customs posts. Serbia is likely to argue are approaching this issue cautiously given the Secretary-General’s latest report. that revenue collected in the north should its history in the Council. Most members do • S/2008/354 (12 June 2008) was the go to northern Kosovo (thus benefiting the not yet have strong positions on it and are Secretary-General’s report on how he Serbian population there) and this is likely waiting for the Secretary-General’s report to plans to reconfigure UNMIK. to be challenged by the Kosovars. help shape their thinking on the steps Other A longer-term issue is the future of UNMIK. ahead. There are now nine countries in the • S/PV.6025 (26 November 2008) was While UNMIK is likely to be reduced to Council that have recognised Kosovo’s the discussion on the Secretary- between 100 and 200 personnel, its pres- independence and six that have not. (Last General’s 24 November report. ence in Kosovo remains an issue that will year it was eight versus seven.) need to be taken up at some point. Underlying Problems Council and Wider Dynamics Unemployment, poverty and a crumbling Afghanistan For two years the Council expended a great infrastructure are among the immediate deal of energy on this issue. From February problems facing Kosovo today. Lawless- Expected Council Action 2007 when it was presented with the Ahti- ness and corruption are also likely to grow. The mandate of the UN Assistance Mission saari plan to the end of 2008 when it adopted This is likely to present challenges for in Afghanistan (UNAMA) expires on 23 a presidential statement that ultimately both Kosovo’s government and the inter- March and is expected to be renewed. allowed EULEX to take over many UNMIK national community. The Secretary-General’s report on Afghani- functions, it was deeply divided. The stan is expected in early March. His Special November presidential statement was the UN Documents Representative for Afghanistan, Kai Eide, is first substantive decision by the Council on Security Council Resolution likely to brief the Council in mid-March. Dur- Kosovo since 2005. (A draft resolution put • S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) autho- ing his last briefing to the Council on 14 on the table in July 2007 was finally aborted rised NATO to secure and enforce the October, Eide outlined key benchmarks after it was clear that it would be vetoed.) withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from which he hoped UNAMA would meet in six Kosovo and established UNMIK. It is clear that the differences over this issue months. These included specific criteria to have not disappeared. However, there is a Selected Presidential Statement measure aid effectiveness, strengthening sense that western members are happy to • S/PRST/2008/44 (26 November 2008) the government’s mechanisms for combat- see it move down the list of Council priori- was the presidential statement wel- ing corruption, determining the kind of ties for now. They appear to have little coming the Secretary-General’s 24 police force required, designing an agricul- inclination to see a return to divisive discus- November report and the cooperation tural reform programme and solidifying the sions on Kosovo’s status and on the role of between the UN and other interna- Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship. resolution 1244. tional actors within the framework of The mandate for the International Security resolution 1244. The Russian position has remained Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan consistent. Russia favours a strict imple- Selected Letters expires on 13 October. mentation of resolution 1244 and supports • S/2008/638 (10 October 2008) was the Key Recent Developments the Serbian position that Kosovo’s unilat- letter on the operations of KFOR from Afghanistan continues to confront a thriving eral declaration of independence was 1-31 July 2008. drug trade, an increasingly violent insur- contrary to international law. The success- gency, corruption and widespread poverty.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 13 The insurgency’s influence is expanding On 17 February, US President Barack (as evidenced by the October cabinet beyond traditionally volatile areas. On 11 Obama authorised a 17,000 troop increase reshuffle), reducing opium cultivation and February the Taliban conducted simultane- for Afghanistan. the government’s commitment to improve ous attacks against government facilities in subnational governance. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Under Kabul, killing at least twenty people and Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Oper- The Independent Electoral Commission injuring many others. ations Alain Le Roy visited Afghanistan in announced presidential elections would be Human Rights early February. Ban said the UN strategy for held on 20 August despite the constitutional 2009 was to implement the June 2008 Paris requirement that they be conducted within According to the Annual Report of the Declaration focusing on investment in agri- thirty to sixty days before the last day of the UN High Commissioner for Human culture, energy and infrastructure and president’s term (22 May). Insecurity, the Rights on the human rights situation in making aid more effective. harsh winter and lack of funds seem to have Afghanistan released on 16 January, a prompted the postponement. Controversy culture of deeply-entrenched impunity UNAMA’s budget was doubled in Decem- has arisen as to whether the Electoral Com- prevails. Despite reform initiatives, the ber by the General Assembly which mission has the authority to change the judicial system remains weak, corrupt granted an increase in international staff election date in this way. There are moves and dysfunctional. Civilian casualties from approximately 1,500 to 2,000. The to have both houses of parliament endorse rose substantially in 2008, along with increases reflect the need for more the postponement in order to grant legiti- further erosion of accessibility for resources to enable UNAMA to effectively macy to an extension of the president’s humanitarian organisations. The report execute its tasks under resolution 1806 term. Voter registration commenced in the concludes there was a lack of political and the Paris Declaration, including remaining provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, will to address problems of lawlessness, strengthening capacity to support elec- Nimroz and Uruzgan in late January. the widespread abuse of power, vio- toral assistance, improving governance lence against women and their and institution-building, supporting the The joint Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assess- marginalisation and restrictions on Afghanistan National Development Strat- ment Survey by the UN Office of Drugs and freedom of expression. egy (ANDS), expanding UNAMA’s presence Crime and the Afghan Ministry of Counter- in the provinces and promoting donor Narcotics released in February forecasts a UNAMA released its report on civilians in coordination and aid effectiveness. decrease in opium poppy cultivation in armed conflict on 17 February. In 2008 2009, including in the south, as a result of UNAMA recorded 2,118 civilian casualties, A decision was taken in October by Eide to stronger efforts by the government, high an increase of almost 40 percent from the establish an Office for the Coordination of food prices and low opium prices. Eighteen previous year. Forty percent of civilian Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) presence in of the 34 provinces in 2008 are likely to casualties occurred in the south and 55 Afghanistan separate from the Humanitar- remain poppy free in 2009 according to the percent of the overall death toll (1,160) was ian Affairs Unit in UNAMA. The decision was Survey. NATO defence ministers agreed in attributed to insurgents, with the vast based on perceptions held by the humani- October to authorise troops to engage nar- majority killed by suicide bombers and tarian community that OCHA’s neutrality cotics facilities and facilitators providing improvised explosive devises. Coalition air was compromised while operating within material support for the insurgency. Since strikes were responsible for 522 civilian UNAMA and concerns that assistance the new rules were agreed upon in early deaths. In 2008, 38 aid workers were killed, would be driven by political objectives February, 11 drug laboratories have been twice as many as 2007. International secu- rather than needs. OCHA, which reports to dismantled, $50 million worth of drugs have rity force casualties also reached their the Deputy Special Representative of the been seized and a number of traffickers highest levels in 2008 since 2001. As of Secretary-General and to the Under Secre- have been arrested. October 2008, between one-third and one- tary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and half of the country was inaccessible for Emergency Relief Coordinator, is part of the On 6 January the foreign ministers from most humanitarian organisations. UN country team. Pakistan and Afghanistan signed a joint declaration on bilateral cooperation. The The new US administration describes A Council mission visited Afghanistan, declaration agreed to strengthen communi- Afghanistan as its top military priority and including Kabul and Herat, from 21 to 28 cation between government departments, has launched a review of its policy toward November. While meeting the Council del- armed forces and security agencies. It also Afghanistan and Pakistan to be completed egation, President Hamid Karzai raised agreed to develop a joint strategy for com- before the NATO summit in early April. issues of terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan, bating terrorism and to establish closer Ahead of the review, the new US Special civilian casualties, institutional strengthen- cooperation to counter militancy and Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Rich- ing and international donor coordination. extremism in the region. ard Holbrooke, met Afghan, Pakistani and The delegation noted progress made in Indian leaders during a visit in February. Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, governance

14 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Options powers to resolve the regional problems The most likely option is for the Council to that inherently influence the conflict in extend the current mandate of UNAMA for a Afghanistan. SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT further 12 months. Monthly Key Issues An option which would galvanise attention A key issue is whether UNAMA is fully exe- MAR 2009FORECAST on the multilateral capacity that UNAMA can cuting its mandate and playing an effective bring to bear would be for President role in leading and coordinating interna- n the need for the government to continue Obama’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan and tional civilian aid efforts in Afghanistan. to address corruption. Pakistan and former US Permanent Repre- An issue which is closely related is whether Council Dynamics sentative Richard Holbrooke to brief the the international community is discharg- Council members support the role of Council on some of the findings from his ing its shared responsibility for aid delivery UNAMA in Afghanistan. recent assessment mission. and coordination with UNAMA and While Council members support a more With continued tension over the number of whether donors have honoured their com- comprehensive regional approach to the civilian casualties resulting from coalition mitments made at the Paris Conference in crisis in Afghanistan, there are differing military operations, stronger language on June to deliver assistance in a more coor- views about what role the Council can play protection of civilians in a new resolution to dinated way and increasingly through the in achieving this given concerns by India extend UNAMA’s mandate is an option. national budget. and Pakistan that their respective situation This might mirror language adopted in res- A further issue is whether the government not be on the Council’s direct agenda. olution 1833, extending ISAF’s mandate, is making progress in strengthening gov- which called on international forces to take ernment institutions and introducing Council members also support the idea of additional robust efforts to minimise the risk accountability mechanisms to provide an Afghan-led national reconciliation plan. of civilian casualties. donors with confidence to commit funds to However, views differ on the breadth of such a strategy. While there is unanimity A further option is to modify the language Afghanistan’s central budget. that negotiations cannot be undertaken on the coordination of humanitarian assis- An underlying issue for UNAMA is the dete- with Al-Qaida, some members believe it is tance to reflect the creation of an OCHA riorating security situation. This is impairing important to support reconciliation efforts office separate from the UNAMA structure. reconstruction and humanitarian efforts and with parts of the Taliban. Others take a The Council could also pursue additional increasing the toll on civilians, humanitarian more cautious approach and object in par- options including: workers and security forces. A related issue ticular to initiatives involving anyone on the n stronger language on aid coordination is the growing anger and frustration among Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions list. There and effectiveness to reflect the Paris Afghans with the international community, are also differences as to whether any Declaration which strengthened the arising from slow progress in development reconciliation efforts should be primarily at role of UNAMA in leading and coordi- and civilian casualties caused by coalition the local level or whether they need to be nating international civilian aid efforts military operations (particularly air strikes). more comprehensive. in Afghanistan; A key political issue is how best to involve Civilian casualties are a sensitive issue n reminding donors of their earlier commit- all the regional stakeholders in a compre- between members. During the ISAF ment to fully align their efforts behind the hensive regional strategy. This would need mandate renewal consultations in Sep­ financing and implementation of the to address militant sanctuaries across the tember, there was a long debate on the ANDS; border in Pakistan, tensions between India strength of the language regarding protec- n mandating UNAMA to play an oversight and Pakistan and Iran’s concerns that tion of civilians. role in the auditing process of pro- Afghanistan could be used as a staging grammes financed through the core and area against it. For 2007-2008, Italy had the lead on Afghan- external budgets; istan. With its departure from the Council, n strengthening the language on UNAMA’s Other key issues include: Japan will assume this role initially followed support for elections; n the need for a comprehensive strategy in 2010 by Turkey. Given their history of sup- n encouraging the work of the Friends of on national reconciliation; port for Afghanistan both Japan and Turkey Pakistan Group and requesting a briefing n free and fair elections conducted with are expected to play strong roles in the on progress in the Group’s agenda; and UNAMA’s support; Council’s consideration of Afghanistan. n establishing a contact group to promote n countering narcotics; greater dialogue and transparency in n improving governance at all levels in the region and to work with regional Afghanistan to improve services for and accountability to the Afghan people; and

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 15 ment Intégre de Sécurité (DIS), a UN-trained UN Documents UNAMA: Size, Composition and Duration Chadian force responsible for providing • Strength (as of 31 December): 250 Selected Security Council Resolutions security inside refugee and internally dis- international civilians, 1,163 local civil- • S/RES/1833 (22 September 2008) placed person (IDP) camps in eastern ians, 16 military observers, five civilian extended ISAF’s mandate until 13 Chad. It was concluded that a report would police, 41 UN volunteers October 2009. be of more use once the transfer was com- • Duration: 28 March 2002 to present; • S/RES/1817 (11 June 2008) was the plete despite the requirement for a report mandate expires on 23 March 2009 resolution restricting the trafficking every three months. Victor da Silva Angelo, into Afghanistan of chemical precur- ISAF Military Commander the Special Representative of the Secretary- sors for narcotics production. General David D. McKiernan (US) General and head of MINURCAT, may brief • S/RES/1806 (20 March 2008) ISAF: Size, Composition and Duration the Council. extended UNAMA’s mandate until • Total strength: about 56,000 troops Resolution 1778 of 25 September 2007, 23 March 2009. • Contributors of military personnel: which established MINURCAT and autho- • S/RES/1659 (15 February 2006) Forty NATO and non-NATO countries rised EUFOR, required the EU to report to endorsed the Afghanistan Compact • Current top contributors: US, UK, the Council at the end of EUFOR’s opera- (on international cooperation with Germany, Canada, and Italy. tion. A briefing by EU High Representative Afghanistan) and its annexes. • Duration: 20 December 2001 to Javier Solana is possible. • S/RES/1401 (28 March 2002) created present; mandate expires on 13 UNAMA. October 2009 The mandate of MINURCAT expires on 15 March 2010. Selected Presidential Statement Operation Enduring Freedom: Size, • S/PRST/2008/26 (11 July 2008) Composition and Duration Recent Developments welcomed the outcome of the Paris • Current strength:13,500 (this is an esti- The humanitarian and security situation in conference, recalled the strengthened mate as the troop numbers shift eastern Chad continues to be of concern role of UNAMA and the Special Repre- continuously) with ongoing attacks, banditry, the militari- sentative of the Secretary-General and • Top contributor: US sation of refugee camps, recruitment of endorsed the increase of resources of • Duration: 7 October 2001 to present child soldiers, gender-based violence, law- UNAMA to fulfil this role. lessness and impunity. There are concerns Useful Additional Resources Selected Reports rebels may attempt to attack N’Djamena Annual Report on Protection of Civilians in • A/HRC/10/23 (16 January 2009) was before the rainy season begins in May. Armed Conflict, 2008, January 2009, the report of the High Commissioner UNAMA There continues to be approximately for Human Rights on the situation of 180,000 IDPs, 57,000 refugees from the human rights in Afghanistan and on “From Great Game to Grand Bargain: End- CAR and 263,000 refugees from Darfur who achievements in technical assistance ing Chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan”, by receive humanitarian assistance in Chad. in the field of human rights. Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, Given continuing insecurity in Sudan and • S/2008/782 (12 December 2008) Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008 Chad, refugees are unlikely to return was the report of the Security Council in 2009. mission to Afghanistan, 21 to 28 November 2008. Chad/CAR In mid-January UN and international NGO • S/2008/695 (10 November 2008) staff were evacuated from the town of Ndélé was the report of the Secretary- Expected Council Action in northeastern CAR because of approach- General on children and armed Council members will be following closely ing rebels. Also in January, more than conflict in Afghanistan. in March the transition from the EU Mission 10,000 refugees from northeastern CAR • S/2008/617 (24 September 2008) in the Central African Republic and Chad fled fighting between the government and was the latest UNAMA report. (EUFOR), which concludes on 15 March, to rebels into southeastern Chad. • S/2008/434 (3 July 2008) was the a UN military component for the UN Mission On 14 January the Council authorised special report of the Secretary- in the Central African Republic and Chad deployment of a military component to General pursuant to resolution 1806 (MINURCAT). A statement recognising the replace EUFOR in eastern Chad and north- on UNAMA. contribution made by EUFOR in improving security in eastern Chad and northeastern eastern CAR on 15 March. Five thousand Special Representative of the Secretary- and two hundred military personnel (includ- General and UNAMA’s Chief of Mission Central African Republic (CAR) is possible. ing 300 for CAR) were authorised to replace Kai Eide Council members will also be looking the 3,300 EUFOR troops. MINURCAT’s forward to a report in April by the Secretary- mandate was also extended until 15 March General on progress towards the full 2010. France, which contributes 1,660 of deployment of MINURCAT and the Détache-

16 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org EUFOR’s 3,300 troops, plans to withdraw at government says Chad supports and pro- least 1,000 troops by mid-2009. On 13 Feb- tects the Darfur rebel group known as the ruary the UN and Chadian government Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). The SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT signed a memorandum of understanding AU has expressed serious concern at cur- Monthly formalising the transfer of EUFOR infra- rent tensions. An AU mission chaired by MAR 2009 structure and assets to the UN. former Burundian president, Pierre Buyoya, FORECAST visited the region in October and November MINURCAT completed its target of training 2008 at the request of the AU Peace and n taking up the recommendation by the 850 officers for the DIS in February, and Security Council in June. It has yet to release Sudan sanctions Panel of Experts to approximately 530 officers are currently its recommendations. include monitoring of the arms embargo deployed. An assessment of the Chadian within MINURCAT’s mandate; government’s request to raise the total On 17 February the Sudanese government n adding the names of Sudanese rebel strength of DIS to 1,700 is expected follow- and JEM signed an agreement pledging to leaders who receive sanctuary in Chad ing the deployment of the first 850 officers. resolve the Darfur conflict. The host of the (and possibly their Chadian supporters) On 28 January the DIS and UN Police con- peace talks, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh to the Sudan sanctions consolidated list; ducted their first joint operation, seizing Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, reportedly said n welcoming the CAR’s inclusive political military uniforms, charges and ammunition the peace negotiations should be broad- dialogue and increasing pressure on the from Am Nabak refugee camp in northeast- ened to involve an agreement between Chadian government, rebels and political ern Chad during a search operation. Sudan and Chad. opposition to take concrete steps towards a similar all-inclusive dialogue; and In December 2008, Chad’s National The AU-sponsored Dakar Agreement Con- n requesting the Secretary-General to Assembly (in which President Idriss Déby’s tact Group, formed in March 2008 to follow report on the action plans of armed forces party is in majority) passed draft bills up implementation of measures to nor- party to the conflict in Chad to end the related to the electoral law and the estab- malise relations between Chad and Sudan, recruitment and use of children, as rec- lishment of the National Electoral failed to meet in Khartoum in January. Fol- ommended by the Working Group on Commission provided under the EU-spon- lowing its last meeting in N’Djamena on 15 Children and Armed Conflict in Septem- sored Inter-Chadian Agreement of 13 November, the Group indicated a peace ber 2007 and December 2008. August 2007 between the government and and security force of Sudanese and Chad- the political opposition. The main opposi- ian troops would monitor the common Key Issues tion coalition, known as the Coordination border in January. This deployment appears A key practical issue for the Council is that of Political Parties for the Defence of the to have been delayed. between the UN and the EU a sizeable and Constitution (CPDC, or Coordination des capable force is maintained in Chad and In December 2008, the CAR held an inclu- Partis politiques pour la Défense de la Con- CAR during the transition period. sive political dialogue involving all parties, stitution), questioned the independence of including the ruling administration, rebels, the proposed National Electoral Commis- A major humanitarian issue is the continuing the legal opposition and civil society sion and has threatened to boycott the lawlessness and decreasing humanitarian leaders. In line with the dialogue’s recom- elections unless the legislation is revised. space in eastern Chad, the politicisation and mendation to appoint a government of In 2007, parliamentary elections were post- militarisation of refugee camps and the lim- national unity, President François Bozizé poned until 2009. Key precursors such as ited ability of MINURCAT and the government appointed a new government on 20 Janu- the population census and voter registra- to protect civilians. Related issues are the ary. Lawlessness, impunity and the absence tion remain outstanding. delayed deployment of MINURCAT, EUFOR’s of state authority continue to plague many limitations in dealing with criminality and On 19 January Chadian rebel leader Timam parts of the country. banditry, delays in training of the DIS, and Erdimi was appointed as the chief of the the Chadian government’s capacity to Options Union of Resistance Forces (Union des improve security. A critical factor is the need Options for the Council include: Forces de résistance, or UFR—a coalition to strengthen the rule of law in eastern Chad n taking no action in March and waiting for of eight rebel groups formed in late 2008) to support the DIS deployment. the report in April; during a meeting of Chadian rebels in n adopting a presidential statement recog- Sudan. The Union’s aim is to remove Déby An underlying issue is the deteriorating nising the contribution made by EUFOR from power. relationship between Chad and Sudan (whose mandate expires on 15 March) and the continued proxy war in which each Relations between Sudan and Chad have and calling for progress with the current government supports rebels in the other’s again deteriorated amid renewed accusa- political initiatives aimed at improving country. There is a need for credible bor- tions of a proxy war on both sides. The security in eastern Chad and northeast- der monitoring. Chadian government claims Sudan is sup- ern CAR; porting the UFR, and the Sudanese

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 17 Council Dynamics Other Relevant Facts months. It appears that no new threats The focus of the Council remains on how against UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNI- MINURCAT: Special Representative of best to protect civilians and contain the FIL) have been made. the Secretary-General spillover of the Darfur conflict into Chad. On 8 and 14 January several rockets were Council members unanimously supported Victor da Silva Angelo (Portugal) fired from southern Lebanon into Israel. a follow-on UN military force to succeed MINURCAT: Size, Composition and Cost (Apparently UNIFIL and the Lebanese army EUFOR in eastern Chad. Despite also • Authorised strength (commencing prevented some other attacks.) authorising a 300-strong UN force in north- of 15 March): 300 police, 25 military eastern CAR, several Council members liaison officers, 5,200 military person- Concerns persisted that the conflict were initially more inclined to accept the nel and an appropriate number of between Hamas and Israel in Gaza might Secretary-General’s recommendation that civilian personnel. trigger a wider conflict, especially given the the threat assessment in this region did not • Strength as of 31 December 2008: presence of armed militants in Lebanon, in warrant such a sizable force. 235 police and 44 military observers, particular inside Palestinian refugee camps, 316 international civilian personnel, who have expressed support for Hamas. Despite the strong Council support for polit- 183 local civilian staff and 98 UN ical resolution to Sudan’s internal conflicts, On 21 February Israel fired at least six artil- volunteers there seems to be continued reluctance lery shells toward Lebanon in response to • Main police contributors: Côte d’Ivoire, from the Council to ask Chad to take seri- the firing of two rockets towards Israel which Senegal, Burkina Faso, ous steps to address its internal political had lightly wounded three Israelis. Benin and France problems. • Cost: approved budget 1 July 2008– On 18 February the UN Special Coordina- Most members appreciate the seriousness 30 June 2009: $315 million tor for the Middle East Peace Process, and the interconnected nature of the secu- MINURCAT: Duration Robert Serry, gave his monthly briefing to rity situations in both Sudan and Chad. the Council on the situation in the Middle September 2007 to present; mandate However, few Council members seem ready East. He said that the crisis in Gaza led to expires on 15 March 2010 to advocate for stronger Council leadership increased tensions in Lebanon although on the regional dimension of the issue. EUFOR: Size, Composition and Cost divisions between Fatah and Hamas had • Expected strength: 3,700 troops and not translated into open confrontation. UN Documents 600 on reserve He said Lebanon continued to enjoy rela- Selected Security Council Resolutions • Strength in area of operation as of 28 tive political stability overall with good January: 3,306 troops • S/RES/1861 (14 January 2009) implementation of the May 2008 Doha • Main contributors: France (1,661), renewed MINURCAT’s mandate and agreement among Lebanese factions Ireland (446), and Poland (394). authorised the deployment of a mili- which ended the political standoff in Leba- • Cost: €119.6 million tary component to replace EUFOR. non, despite the likelihood of more political • S/RES/1778 (25 September 2007) EUFOR: Duration hostilities in the run-up to the 7 June parlia- established MINURCAT and 17 March 2008 to present; mandate mentary elections. authorised EUFOR. expires on 15 March 2009 On 16 February Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Latest Secretary-General’s Reports Nasrallah, said that Hezbollah had the right • S/2008/760 (4 December 2008) to acquire air-defence weapons and use • S/2008/532 (7 August 2008) was a Lebanon them against Israeli warplanes that violate report on children and armed conflict Lebanese air space. in Chad. Expected Council Action A report of the Secretary-General on the On 14 February demonstrations were held Latest Briefings implementation of resolution 1701 will be in Beirut on the occasion of the fourth anni- • S/PV.6042 (12 December 2008) was before the Council in March. versary of the killing of former Prime Minister the meeting to discuss the Secretary- Rafik Hariri. Support for the Special Tribunal General’s latest report. A briefing by the Special Coordinator for was reaffirmed by the US at this occasion. • S/PV.6029 (3 December 2008) was a Lebanon, Michael Williams, is expected. At On 10 February parliamentary elections briefing by John Holmes, the Under press time, there were no signs that the were held in Israel. The centrist Kadima Secretary-General for Humanitarian Council would take any significant action. party headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordi- On 1 March the Special Tribunal for Leba- Livni, won 28 seats in the 120-member par- nator, on the situation in Chad and non is scheduled to begin functioning. liament, and the right-wing opposition the Sudan. Key Recent Developments Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, Overall, the security situation in south Leba- won 27 seats. In light of promises of sup- non has been relatively calm in recent port from minor parties for Netanyahu,

18 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Israeli President Shimon Peres asked n reaffirm the need for full implementation Netanyahu to form a new government. By of resolution 1701; law, he has 42 days to win parliament’s n welcome positive developments in Leba- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT approval. non, in particular the continuation of the Monthly Lebanese dialogue, and encourage fur- In an interview for Lebanese television on MAR 2009 ther efforts; FORECAST 26 January, Syrian President Bashar al- n encourage ongoing steps towards nor- Assad said the election of US President malisation of bilateral diplomatic relations whether the Council will want to wait for dip- Barack Obama raised cautious hopes that between Lebanon and ; lomatic developments or continue to press a peace settlement could be reached in the for implementation of resolution 1701. The n request Israel to put an end to overflights Middle East. He added, however, that there and to provide maps of cluster munitions uncertain political situation in Israel signals was no prospect for indirect peace talks in southern Lebanon in application of that any progress on the issues of Ghajar between Syria and Israel after its attack on resolution 1701; and and Sheb’a Farms is unlikely at least until a Gaza and that a complete Israeli withdrawal new government is established. n encourage a smooth electoral process. from the Golan Heights would be a precon- dition to any peace settlement. He also Alternatively, the Council might choose to Council Dynamics expressed readiness to engage in a direct take no action at this stage and wait for Support for implementation of resolution dialogue with the US as long as the US political developments in Israel and in Leba- 1701 remains strong, particularly from the imposed no preconditions. non, as well as for new US engagement in US, which reaffirmed its willingness to see the region. more progress on all aspects of the pro- The progressive reestablishment of diplo- cess. There seems to be, however, less matic relations between Lebanon and Key Issues momentum for pushing it via the Council at Syria has continued. Syria accepted Leba- Issues include progress with implementa- the moment. Some believe that it may be non’s first ambassador ever to Damascus tion of all elements of resolution 1701. time for the Council to reaffirm resolution on 27 January. Syria has yet to submit the These include status of the Sheb’a Farms 1701 as the only viable option for a long- name of its candidate as ambassador to and Ghajar village, disarmament of mili- term solution. But others tend to prefer a Beirut. On 20 February, French Foreign tias, arms smuggling, Syria-Lebanon wait-and-see strategy as Syria’s relations Minister Bernard Kouchner voiced concern reestablishment of diplomatic relations, with both Israel and the US will be the key to over the delay. Israel’s air violations of Lebanon’s territo- implementing resolution 1701. rial integrity and Israel’s provision of maps Positive developments in Lebanon also for the location of cluster munitions in The US seems concerned by the rocket included further meetings among Leba- southern Lebanon. incidents in January and may emphasise non’s main political leaders on 22 December the necessity for UNIFIL and the Lebanese and on 26 January in the context of the Leb- Israel continues to raise the issue of arms armed forces to further strengthen their anese national dialogue. They continued smuggling across the Syrian-Lebanese patrolling and to address arms smuggling. discussions on Lebanon’s national defence border. The firing of rockets from southern strategy. The next meeting is scheduled for Lebanon in January and February seems to Council members are very supportive of a 2 March. confirm the arrival of new weapons in the free and fair electoral process as a guaran- south, in violation of resolution 1701. A key tee of stability. There is general concern The political situation in Lebanon has been question is whether to take action. A prob- about a possible increase of tensions in the more stable since the formation in July of a lem is that in the absence of specific lead-up to parliamentary elections in June. unity government in which the Shi’a-led evidence of arms embargo violations, opposition holds veto power, a develop- However, because there is also a sense that action in the Council will prove difficult. ment that followed 18 months of political the overall situation in Lebanon is improv- standoff. However, there are fears that Israeli overflights are linked to arms smug- ing, there seems to be less appetite for upcoming legislative elections may reignite gling and have also continued unabated. Council action. tensions between the Sunni-led anti-Syrian Israel also still has to provide maps Dynamics in the Council on Lebanon have coalition led by Saad Hariri and the Hezbol- of location of cluster munitions in southern not changed significantly as a result of lah-led alliance supported by Syria and Iran. Lebanon. new Council members. Some members The electoral contest is expected to be tight. Recent UN attempts to bring Lebanon and are more concerned with arms smuggling On 16 January the EU pledged $5.1 million Israel together, in particular on the issue of and the lack of progress on disarmament, towards ensuring Lebanon’s elections the Israeli occupation of the Sheb’a Farms while other members are inclined to proceed democratically. and Ghajar have not been successful. emphasise Israel’s obligations to provide Options George Mitchell, the recently appointed US maps of cluster munitions’ location and to If the Council decides to respond to the Middle East Envoy, is expected to visit Leb- end overflights. 1701 report, it could: anon soon. A key issue, therefore, is

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 19 witnesses. Defence testimony is expected UN Documents Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, to start in April. A verdict is expected in early India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malay- Selected Council Resolutions 2010. The UK has offered to imprison Taylor sia, Nepal, Norway, Poland, Portugal, • S/RES/1832 (27 August 2008) if he is convicted. , Republic of Korea, Sierra extended the UNIFIL mandate until 31 Leone, Slovenia, Spain, Tanzania and On 9 January, Charles “Chuckie” Taylor, August 2009. Turkey Taylor’s son, was sentenced by a US court • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called Cost to 97 years in prison for torture committed for a cessation of hostilities between when he was head of a notorious anti-ter- Hezbollah and Israel and for a long- 1 July 2008 - 30 June 2009: $680.93 rorist unit in Liberia during his father’s term solution, imposed an arms million (A/C.5/62/30) presidency. It was the first application of a embargo on Lebanon and authorised Useful Additional Sources US law known as the extraterritorial torture a reinforcement of UNIFIL. Nurturing Instability: Lebanon’s Palestinian statute, which allows for the prosecution of Latest Council Presidential Statement Refugee Camps, International Crisis Group, US citizens who commit torture overseas. on 1701 Middle East Report N°84, 19 February 2009 • S/PRST/2008/8 (15 April 2008) On 30 November the Truth and Reconcilia- Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Oppor- tion Commission of Liberia (TRC) published Latest Secretary-General’s report on 1701 tunities, International Crisis Group, Middle a list of 198 individuals suspected of having East Report N°83, 11 February 2009 committed war crimes and other human • S/2008/715 (18 November 2008) rights violations between 1979 and 2003 Latest Monthly Briefing to the Council on and called on them to appear before the the situation in the Middle East Commission to respond to the allegations. • S/PV.6084 (18 February 2009) Liberia Public hearings were extended from Latest Letters Expected Council Action December to 15 February to allow more • S/2009/76 (5 February 2009) was In March, the Council is expected to discuss witnesses to testify. Liberian President a letter from Lebanon enclosing the Secretary-General’s report on Liberia of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf testified before the a statistical table of the violations 10 February and hear a briefing by Ellen Commission on 12 February, apologising committed by Israel by air, sea and Margrethe Løj, the Special Representative for having supported Taylor’s rebellion land in January. of the Secretary-General. Progress in meet- against President Samuel Doe before she • S/2009/74 (5 February 2009) was a let- ing key security benchmarks and possible went into exile. ter from Lebanon complaining that adjustments of the UN Mission in Liberia On 19 December the TRC presented the two Israeli gunboats intercepted a (UNMIL) will be considered. Resolution first of several volumes of its final report, Lebanese Brotherhood Vessel carry- 1836 renewed the UNMIL mandate until containing findings and determinations ing humanitarian aid and medicine September 2009. made to date. It recommended that indi- while it was in international waters Key Recent Developments viduals and groups found by the TRC trying to reach Gaza. On 19 December resolution 1854 renewed responsible for serious crimes, including the arms embargo and travel ban for a violations of human rights and international Other Relevant Facts further 12 months and extended the man- humanitarian law, should be prosecuted in Secretary-General’s Special Coordinator date of the Panel of Experts monitoring a special criminal court. More detailed rec- for Lebanon implementation of the sanctions regime ommendations on this court would be Michael C. Williams (UK) until 20 December. included in the final consolidated report to UNIFIL Force Commander be presented to the Liberian government In December the Liberia Sanctions Com- on 22 June. Major-General Claudio Graziano (Italy) mittee removed two further individuals Size and Composition of UNIFIL from the travel ban and assets freeze lists: The overall security situation in Liberia • Authorised: 15,000 troops Jenkins Dunbar (former Liberian minister remained stable but fragile. UNMIL was • Current (31 December 2008): 12,435 of lands, mines and energy) and Gus Kou- reconfigured into two sectors, following the military personnel, supported by some wenhoven (arms dealer and purveyor of withdrawal of one infantry battalion and two 317 international civilian and 640 local funds to the Charles Taylor regime and sector headquarters in accordance with civilian staff. close associate of Taylor). It also updated resolution 1836 which approved a reduc- • Troop Contributors: Belgium, Brunei, information on others. tion of 1,460 UNMIL troops. China, Croatia, Cyprus, El Salvador, On 30 January in the trial in the Special Focus continued on justice sector reform. France, FYR of Macedonia, Germany, Court for Sierra Leone of former Liberian On 3 December UNMIL released its bian- president Charles Taylor, the prosecution nual report on the human rights situation concluded testimony, having called 91 in Liberia. It addressed challenges in the

20 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org criminal justice system, in particular the resources, but this seems less likely now lack of key personnel and inadequate that the Secretary-General has given his funding for essential rule of law institu- clear recommendation to maintain UNMIL’s SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT tions including courts, police and the strength until September. Monthly prison system. It expressed concern Another option would be to endorse his rec- MAR 2009 about the prevalence of gender-based FORECAST ommendation but also signal that it hopes violence and called on the government to to see a more aggressive approach to make appointments to the Independent Other Relevant Facts phase three of the drawdown than sug- National Commission on Human Rights gested by the Secretary-General. Special Representative of the so it could become operational. Secretary-General Council Dynamics Challenges in security sector reform were Ellen Margrethe Løj (Denmark) At press time, Council members were still also reported by the International Crisis UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost studying the Secretary-General’s report. In- Group in January, which highlighted con- depth discussions on the recommendations • Strength as of February 2009: 10,764 cerns about ineffectiveness and corruption had yet to start. It is unclear whether any military and 1,226 police among the police. members will press for an immediate draw- • Key contributing countries: Bangla- The Secretary General’s report of 10 Febru- down. In the past, France has argued for a desh, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan ary, which will be before the Council in quicker drawdown but has faced resis- • Cost: 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009: March, also noted significant challenges in tance, notably from the US. $631.69 million meeting core security and rule of law UNMIL: Duration benchmarks. It recommended that UNMIL’s UN Documents September 2003 to present; mandate strength should be maintained for the Selected Security Council Resolutions expires 30 September 2009 remainder of the current mandate. How- • S/RES/1854 (19 December 2008) Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions ever, the report suggested a further military renewed the arms and travel sanc- Committee drawdown of 2,000 by the end of 2010 (i.e. tions for a further 12 months and Giadalla Azuz Ettalhi (Libya) phase three of the drawdown plan) subject extended the mandate of the Panel of Panel of Experts on Liberia to a more detailed assessment on the Experts that monitors implementation • Thomas R. Creal (US, expert on ground. No significant police reduction was of the sanctions regime until 20 finance) envisaged at this stage. December. • Wynet V. Smith (Canada, expert on • S/RES/1836 (29 September 2008) Key Issues natural resources and coordinator of renewed the UNMIL mandate for 12 Security sector reform remains a key issue. the Panel) months and endorsed the Secretary- While there seems to be agreement that • A third expert is yet to be appointed UNMIL’s presence remains crucial in main- General’s recommendations for the taining security, particularly for the mission’s drawdown. Useful Additional Sources presidential and legislative elections in • S/RES/1819 (18 June 2008) requested Liberia: Uneven Progress in Security Sector 2011, a key question is how large UNMIL the Secretary-General to extend the Reform, International Crisis Group, Africa needs to be for this purpose. mandate of the Panel of Experts on Report No 148, 13 January 2009 Liberia until 20 December 2008. Regional issues also remain important. Selected Secretary-General’s Reports Liberia’s security situation could be cross • S/2009/86 (10 February 2009) was the infected from negative developments in Iran latest UNMIL report. neighbouring countries. The further post- Expected Council Action • S/2007/479 (8 August 2007) was the ponement of elections in Côte d’Ivoire and Secretary-General’s drawdown plan The prospects of change in US policy on the recent coup in Guinea are worrying for UNMIL. Iran and the possibility of a new diplomatic issues in this regard. In addition, destabilis- track on the Iranian nuclear issue suggests Other ing factors such as high youth that Council involvement in March will be of unemployment, drug trafficking and food • S/2009/47 (22 January 2009) was the a technical nature only. insecurity are affecting the whole subregion letter from the Secretary-General of West Africa. appointing two of the members of the A report and briefing from the chairman of Panel of Experts on Liberia. the 1737 Sanctions Committee, Japanese Options • S/2008/785 (30 November 2008) was Ambassador Yukio Takasu, are due in The Council could push for a faster draw- the latest report of the Panel of Experts March. Discussion of additional sanctions down of UNMIL to alleviate pressures from on Liberia. against Iran is not being contemplated at elsewhere on limited peacekeeping the moment.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 21 Key Recent Developments contacts with Jalili. The E3+3 and the Arab reports that two unnamed states may have Representatives from the E3+3 (France, countries agreed to consult regularly on contravened the export ban on arms and Germany, UK, China, Russia and the US) Iran’s nuclear programme. related materiel from Iran. One state later met in Wiesbaden, Germany on 4 February provided assurances that it would continue In September 2008, the E3+3 introduced to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue. They to fully implement the resolutions on Iran. resolution 1835 which reaffirmed Iran’s reaffirmed their commitment to the dual- Another regular briefing was held on 10 obligation to implement Council and Inter- track approach and emphasised the need December. national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to pursue diplomacy. The new US adminis- resolutions and the Council’s commitment A major development was a recent confi- tration’s instinct to engage in direct talks within the dual-track framework to a negoti- dential communication by Cyprus to the with Iran was encouraged. ated solution to the issue. 1737 Sanctions Committee that a ship Just prior to her confirmation as US Secre- coming from Iran and bound for Syria had Recent IAEA reports on Iran’s compliance tary of State, Hillary Clinton said that the US been detained in Cyprus since 29 January with Council resolutions noted that Iran was administration would conduct a review of its and was inspected following suspicions making significant advances in developing approach to Iran’s nuclear issue. However, that it was transporting arms in contraven- and operating its nuclear centrifuges enrich- no option was taken off the table. She also tion of resolution 1747. The result of the ing uranium. The latest report, issued on 19 emphasised that there would be conse- search was transmitted to the Sanctions February, revealed that Iran had produced quences if Iran did not comply with Council Committee but has not been made public. an additional 209 kilograms of low enriched resolutions. The new US Ambassador to It appears that the ship was not allowed to uranium (LEU) since the previous report the UN, Susan Rice, said on 26 January that go back to Iran. was issued in November, bringing the total President Barack Obama would engage in amount of LEU produced by Iran to approx- On 3 January Secretary-General Ban direct diplomacy with Iran but reminded imately 700 kilograms. Some experts such Ki-moon expressed concern over reports Tehran to comply with Council demands to as the Institute for Science and International that Shirin Ebadi, the Iranian human rights suspend uranium enrichment. Security estimate that this is sufficient for lawyer and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, had On 10 February, Iranian President Mah- the production of enough weapon grade been threatened. Ban called on the Iranian moud Ahmadinejad said Iran was ready to uranium for a single nuclear weapon (other authorities to take immediate measures to engage in dialogue with the US in an atmo- scientists estimate that 900 kilograms or ensure her safety. sphere of equality and mutual respect. 1,000 kilograms is more realistic). However, Options Iran would still have to further enrich its In recent months, diplomatic efforts have The Iran nuclear issue is unlikely to be taken LEU stockpile, which could occur quickly. been at a standstill. EU Foreign Policy Chief up in March. However, one option might be Another finding was that Iran has dramati- Javier Solana and Iranian nuclear negotia- for the Council to signal in a presidential cally increased its installation of centrifuges tor, Saeed Jalili, have remained in indirect statement its support for a renewed (now numbering more than 5,400) although contact. But they have not met formally diplomatic process. the number of centrifuges actually enrich- since 19 July when they met in Geneva with ing uranium is holding steady at just under If the Sanctions Committee reports that Iran representatives of the E3+3. The E3+3 4,000. The reports also said Iran continued and Syria have violated resolution 1747, an “freeze for freeze” proposal made in June to resist efforts to substantively address its option for the Council would be to invite 2008, therefore, remains on the table. alleged nuclear weapons related work and both countries to a closed Council meeting According to this, Iran would agree not to refused to allow the IAEA to visit the Arak to respond to the report and thereafter hold enrich more uranium, and the Council heavy-water reactor under construction. a public debate. would not adopt new sanctions against Iran Finally, the IAEA reported that it had for a transition period, which would allow for obtained information about the possibility Key Issues pre-negotiations. Formal negotiations The principal issue is whether and when the of Iran drawing on foreign expertise in con- would then begin with Iran’s suspension of US administration will engage with Iran and ducting experiments connected with the its sensitive nuclear activities and the Coun- the extent to which it seeks to involve the initiation of a highly explosive charge suit- cil’s suspension of sanctions. Security Council in a more positive way with able for a nuclear weapon. the Iran issue as opposed to the harsher On 16 December, on the margins of a Coun- On 3 February, Iran launched its first instrumental role employed in recent years. cil meeting on the Middle East, the E3+3 satellite, underlining progress towards It seems that the US is aiming to complete and seven Arab countries (, , technology that could be employed for its policy review by the second half of March. Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and the ballistic missiles. A key question is whether suspension of ) held a meeting to uranium enrichment will be an absolute pre- discuss the Iranian nuclear issue. Solana In his briefing to the Council in September, condition for making progress or whether briefed on recent developments in his the chairman of the 1737 Sanctions Com- flexibility will be part of the new approach. mittee pointed out that there had been

22 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Other key issues are whether the Sanctions UN Documents Committee will report in March that Iran and Syria have contravened to resolution Security Council Resolutions SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT 1747—revealing that the intercepted Iranian • S/RES/1835 (27 September 2008) Monthly cargo contained weapons or weapons- reaffirmed its commitment to an early MAR 2009 related material, as some press reports negotiated solution to the Iranian FORECAST suggest—and whether the Council will want nuclear issue and called upon Iran to to take action given that the diplomatic track comply with its obligations under pre- Latest 1737 Sanctions Committee’s with Iran is considered a priority. There vious Council and IAEA resolutions. Briefings to the Council seems to be a lack of appetite for using pos- • S/RES/1803 (3 March 2008) estab- • S/PV.6036 (10 December 2008) sible violation of resolution 1747 a basis for lished a travel ban on some • S/PV.5973 (11 September 2008) new sanctions at this stage, but the issue is individuals already subject to sanc- 1737 Sanctions Committee’s 2008 what other responses can be developed so tions, added new names to the list of Report that the UN does not seem to be ignoring individuals and entities subject to • S/2008/839 (31 December 2008) the issue. assets freeze, expanded the scope of Selected Letters the embargo on proliferation sensitive Council and Wider Dynamics items by adding dual-use items and • S/2008/776 (10 December 2008) was The Council, and in particular the P5, have authorised states to inspect Iranian a letter from Iran protesting France, been in a wait-and-see mode in recent cargoes to and from Iran if there are UK, and US allegations against Iran’s months, because of uncertainty regarding suspicions that they may transport nuclear programme and reemphasis- the policy of the new US administration, but prohibited items. ing that the programme is peaceful also because of internal divisions on the and that all outstanding issues have • S/RES/1747 (24 March 2007) estab- way forward. France, the UK, Germany and lished a ban on Iran’s arms exports been cleared. the US remain concerned over the findings and added names to the list of people • S/2008/643 (10 October 2008) was a of the IAEA suggesting that Iran is progress- and entities subject to assets freeze. letter from Iran enclosing a 6 October ing on the nuclear path. Meanwhile, Russia letter from Iranian negotiator Jalili to • S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) and China have continued to emphasise banned trade with Iran of certain Solana and to the E3+3 on the failure that a peaceful solution to the Iran nuclear nuclear proliferation-sensitive items, to proceed with the diplomatic track. issue lies in diplomatic negotiations. imposed an asset freeze on a list • S/2008/599 (9 September 2008) was a letter from Iran complaining about Dynamics on this issue in the Council are of persons and entities involved in Israel’s threats against Iran. likely to be influenced by the new Council proliferation-sensitive activities and members. Turkey seems reluctant to con- established a Sanctions Committee. Useful Additional Sources • S/RES/1696 (31 July 2006) demanded template additional sanctions and Japan n Nuclear Iran: Not Inevitable—Essential that Iran implement steps required by believes that transparency in nuclear background and recommendations for the IAEA to reestablish confidence in activities is crucial. Mexico and Austria the Obama administration, David the peaceful nature of its nuclear pro- seem to prioritise the diplomatic track Albright and Jacqueline Shire with Paul gramme and, in this context, suspend over sanctions. Brannan and Andrea Scheel, Institute uranium enrichment activities. for Science and International Security, France and the UK have in the past pushed Latest IAEA Board Resolution 21 January 2009. for additional EU sanctions against Iran as a n Has Iran Achieved a Nuclear Weapons way to counter the stalled UN process. It • GOV/2006/14 (4 February 2006) Breakout Capability? Not Yet, But Soon, seems that both have tried to pass new EU underlined necessary steps that Iran David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and regulations that would prevent Iran from should take to reestablish international Paul Brannan, Institute for Science and obtaining equipment and technology for its confidence in its nuclear programme International Security, 2 December 2008. oil industry, ban the operation of two Iranian and reported the issue to the Council. n Dangerous and Getting More Dangerous: banks on EU territory and add names to the Latest IAEA Reports The Delicate Situation between the United list of Iranian organisations subject to UN • GOV/2009/9 (19 February 2009) States and Iran, Sam Gardiner, Colonel, sanctions. Italy and to a lesser extent, • GOV/2008/59 (19 November 2008) USAF (Ret.), The Century Foundation, 22 Germany, supported such measures, but • GOV/2008/38 (15 September 2008) October 2008. Austria, Sweden, Cyprus, Greece and Spain n You Can Detain Anyone for Anything: have been hesitant, emphasising the need Iran’s Broadening Clampdown on Inde- for more dialogue with Iran. pendent Activism, Human Rights Watch, 6 January 2008.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 23 Notable Dates for March Important Dates over the Reports Due for Consideration in February Document Requesting Report Horizon by 25 February SG report on Djibouiti/Eritrea border dispute S/RES/1862 n NATO Summit will be held on 3-4 April in by 27 February SG report on Lebanon (resolution 1701) S/RES/1832 Baden-Baden and Kehl, Germany and in 27 February SG report on Kosovo S/RES/1244 Strasbourg, France. by 28 February SG recommendations on the establishment of an S/2008/809 n The parliament of the Turkish Republic of integrated UN office in Central African Republic Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will hold early 1 March SG report on UN support to AU Mission in Somalia S/RES/1863 parliamentary elections on 19 April. (AMISOM) 2 March SG report on Somali piracy S/RES/1846 n Senate elections for a third of the seats in 6 March SG report on Afghanistan (UNAMA) S/RES/1806 the senate of Haiti are scheduled to be 9 March SG report on Haiti (MINUSTAH) S/RES/1840 held on 19 April. mid March SG quarterly report on Somalia S/PRST/2001/30 n A high level donor conference on Haiti is mid March Report of the 1737 Sanctions Committee on Iran S/RES/1737 scheduled for April in Washington. 19 March SG report on International Tribunals (ICTY/ICTR) S/PRST/2008/47 n An international meeting on the Israeli- 23 March SG report on mediation and support activities S/PRST/2008/36 Palestinian peace process is expected March 2009 Mandates Expire Relevant Document to be held in Moscow in late spring or 15 March Council authorization for EUFOR (Chad/CAR) S/RES/1778 early summer. 23 March UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/1806 n Legislative elections in Lebanon are March 2009 Other Important Dates scheduled for 7 June. 1 March Special Tribunal for Lebanon is expected to commence functioning. n Presidential elections in Iran are sched- 2 March International pledging conference to rebuild Gaza in Sharm El Sheikh, uled for 12 June. Egypt n Presidential and legislative elections in 4 March ICC judges are expected to issue a decision on the prosecution Sudan to be held before July 2009. application for a warrant of arrest against President al Bashir. n Presidential elections are expected in 11-14 March Security Council visit to Haiti Afghanistan on 20 August 2009. 17 March Briefing by Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia n Legislative elections in Chad are currently 18 March Council debate on report of AU/UN peacekeeping panel (S/2008/813) 20-21 March Security Council Retreat with the Secretary-General slated for 2009. by 31 March Council review of SG’s recommendations on Liberia (S/RES/1836) Also expected in March: SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT STAFF • A briefing on the activities of the Development Fund for Iraq and the International Advisory and Colin Keating, Executive Director Monitoring Board in accordance with resolution 1859. Joanna Weschler, Director of Research • The Chairman of the Sudan Sanctions Committee to brief the Council in accordance with resolution Amanda Roberts, Programme Coordinator 1591. The last briefing to the Council was on 10 December. Robert Afriyie, Research Analyst Anne-Gaëlle Claude, Research Analyst Shamala Kandiah, Research Analyst Evelyn Leopold, Research Consultant Nina Pregellio, Research Analyst Astrid Forberg Ryan, Research Analyst Brian Lockstone, Communications Consultant Robbin VanNewkirk, Publications Coordinator Jamaal A. Young, Programme Assistant

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24 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org