Cooperation from Strength 2012 the United States, China and the South China Sea

JANUARY Cooperation from Strength 2012 The United States, China and the South China Sea Edited by Patrick M. Cronin Contributors: Patrick M. Cronin, Peter A. Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, James R. Holmes, Robert D. Kaplan, Will Rogers and Ian Storey Acknowledgments I would like to thank the dozens of experts who generously contributed their time and expertise to this project, particularly the contributing authors who produced such insightful chapters. I am especially indebted to Kristin Lord and Nora Bensahel for their tremendous support and guidance throughout the course of the project, including their diligent editorial advice. Will Rogers contributed far more than a chapter to this volume, from its inception through to its conclusion as a published report. I am particularly grateful to the many people who reviewed drafts of the chapters included in this volume, including Frank Hoffman, Thomas Mahnken and Benjamin Self. Christine Parthemore deserves special recognition for her role in helping conceptualize and launch this project while at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). I offer special thanks to Brian Burton, Abraham Denmark and Daniel Kliman who also helped sculpt this project. In addition, I wish to thank the dozens of dedicated professionals in the U.S. government, armed services and private sector who candidly shared their perspectives. I would like to recognize the valuable contributions made by my colleagues at CNAS, particularly Nate Fick, John Nagl, David Asher, Sara Conneighton, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Exum, Zachary M. Hosford and Shannon O’Reilly. Liz Fontaine provided her usual high caliber of design expertise. Rickisha Berrien provided scrupulous research and fact checking for this project. Readers should note that the views expressed in each chapter belong to the author(s) alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the editor or any of the other contributing authors, nor do they necessarily reflect the views of the authors’ employers or any other organization. This publication was made possible through the support of grants from the Smith Richardson Foundation, GE Foundation and Chevron. Readers should also note that some organizations that have an interest in the issues discussed in this report support CNAS financially. CNAS maintains a broad and diverse group of more than 100 funders, including private founda- tions, government agencies, corporations and private individuals, and retains sole editorial control over its ideas, projects and products. A complete list of the Center’s financial supporters can be found on our website at www.cnas.org/support/ our-supporters. Cover Image (PHOTO BY SHUTTERSTOCK) TABLE OF CONTENts Chapter 1: Cooperation from Strength: 3 Chapter 4: Cracks in the Global Foundation: 67 U.S. Strategy and the South China Sea International Law and Instability By Patrick M. Cronin and Robert D. Kaplan in the South China Sea Chapter 2: Maritime Security in the South China 31 By Peter A. Dutton Sea and the Competition over Maritime Rights Chapter 5: The Role of Natural Resources 83 By M. Taylor Fravel in the South China Sea Chapter 3: China’s Bilateral and Multilateral 51 By Will Rogers Diplomacy in the South China Sea Chapter 6: Rough Waters for Coalition Building 99 By Ian Storey By James R. Holmes JANUARY 2012 Cooperation from Strength The United States, China and the South China Sea Edited by Patrick M. Cronin Contributors: Patrick M. Cronin, Peter A. Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, James R. Holmes, Robert D. Kaplan, Will Rogers and Ian Storey Cooperation from Strength JANUARY 2012 The United States, China and the South China Sea About the Authors Patrick M. Cronin is a Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Peter A. Dutton is a Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. M. Taylor Fravel is an Associate Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. James R. Holmes is an Associate Professor at the U.S. Naval War College. Robert D. Kaplan is a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Will Rogers is a Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security. Ian Storey is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. 2 | CHAPTER I: COOperatiON frOM Strength: U.S. StrategY and the SOuth China Sea By Patrick M. Cronin and Robert D. Kaplan Cooperation from Strength JANUARY 2012 The United States, China and the South China Sea COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH: I. EXECUTIVE SummarY U.S. StrategY AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA American interests are increasingly at risk in the South China Sea due to the economic and military rise of China and concerns about its willingness to uphold existing legal norms. The United States and countries throughout the region have a deep and abiding interest in sea lines of communication that remain open to all, both for commerce and for peaceful military activity such as humanitarian interventions and coastal defense. China, however, continues to challenge that openness, both by questioning historical maritime norms and by developing military capabilities that allow it to threaten access to this maritime region. The geostrategic significance of the South China Sea is difficult to overstate. The South China Sea functions as the throat of the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans – a mass of connective economic tissue where global sea routes coalesce, account- By Patrick M. Cronin and Robert D. Kaplan ing for $1.2 trillion in U.S. trade annually. It is the demographic hub of the 21st-century global economy, where 1.5 billion Chinese, nearly 600 million Southeast Asians and 1.3 billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent move vital resources and exchange goods across the region and around the globe. It is an area where more than a half-dozen countries have overlapping territorial claims over a seabed with proven oil reserves of seven billion barrels as well as an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Defending U.S. interests and promoting the status quo need not – and should not – lead to conflict with China. Both the United States and China will continue to benefit from cooperation and, indeed, no Asian country has benefitted more from the U.S.-led system of international order than China. Nevertheless, managing tensions and advancing cooperation in the South China Sea will require persistent, painstaking attention in Washington. | 5 Cooperation from Strength JANUARY 2012 The United States, China and the South China Sea In the decades ahead, the challenge for the United to build multilateral institutions over the long run States will be how to preserve historic norms while recognizing that it may need to focus on regarding the freedom of navigation while adapt- bilateral or minilateral approaches in practice to ing to the growing power and activity of regional avoid provoking China. actors, including China. The aim is cooperation, but cooperation can best be advanced from a posi- Fourth, the United States should promote further tion of strength. This will require maintaining U.S. economic integration within the region, as well strength and wider regional cooperation, a concept as between the United States and the region, with that might be called “cooperative primacy.” a particular focus on trade. Trade is the currency of the realm in Asia and can help link America’s To protect U.S. and allied interests in the South strategic investments to the most dynamic region China Sea and preserve longstanding legal norms, in the world. U.S. policymakers should take five general steps: Fifth and finally, the United States will need to First, the United States should strengthen its get its China policy right. This will require active naval presence over the long term by building diplomatic and economic engagement backed by toward a 346-ship fleet rather than retreating to a strong U.S. military and a growing economy. A the 250-ship mark that the United States faces realistic policy begins by shoring up American due to budget cuts and the decommissioning of power and then actively supports rules-based aging warships in the next decade. Diplomatic and cooperation; it avoids military conflict but not economic engagement with China and others will diplomatic confrontation. work better when backed by a credible military posture. However, growing the Navy must be con- tingent on healthy economic growth in the future – a strategic priority for the United States. Second, the United States should foster a new web of security partnerships. The “hub and spoke” model of alliances between the United States and its East Asian partners is being eclipsed by a broader, more complicated and more diffuse web of relationships in which Asian countries are the primary drivers. Building a distributed network of stronger partners and allies in Southeast Asia should be an important, long-term objective of the United States. Third, the United States needs to ensure that peace and security in the South China Sea remain at the top of its diplomatic and security agenda. Freedom of navigation is a universal concern, and maritime cooperation and mechanisms for peacefully resolving disputes should continue to be tackled in regional forums. The United States also needs 6 | II . INTRODUCTION varying degrees, they all depend on this exceed- ingly narrow choke point joining the Indian Ocean American interests are increasingly at risk in the to the Western Pacific – the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea. Defending these interests need South China Sea – so that Middle Eastern oil and not – and should not – lead to conflict with China. natural gas can safely transit the high seas en route However, managing tensions and advancing to the burgeoning middle-class conurbations of cooperation in the South China Sea will require East Asia that are so critical to the world economy.

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