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Session 6 a Pilot Analysis of Climate Change Sectoral Planning With Mainstreaming Climate Change into Sectoral Planning and Budgeting: A Pilot Analysis with the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MoAC) Key Challenges for Thailand Policy direction, plan, and strategy at both national and sectoral levels are in place BUT….. “How can we actually mainstream the climate change objectives into sectoral programme and projects?” Key Challenges for Thailand Few policies/programmes are dedicated solely for Climate Change; Climate Change is usually a second consideration!! Key Challenges for Thailand How do we define climate relevant budget expenditure more OBJECTIVELY? And even we could… No common criteria/framework adopted among agencies for programming, financing, monitoring, and evaluating climate related budgets/expenditure Key Challenges for Thailand Line Ministries •Understanding of the nature of the CC effects and how the policy should be designed to maximise benefits, in the light of the effects of CC •Capacity in policy appraisal/budget preparation •Internal system and institutional arrangement? MoAC Pilot Analysis: Bottom Up Approach Budget/Finance Climate Change Agencies Focal Point Various Key Planning Departments Agencies MoAC under MoAC Budget Submission Climate Change Benefit Analysis Adaptation/mitigation benefits MoAC Projects for Pilot CC% Analysis Benefit-Cost Ratio Climate Change Benefit-Cost without Ratio with Climate Risks climate Change change Example of Irrigation Project KANCHING KAWSARD, EXPERT Royal Irrigation Department THAILAND 6 November 2014 Glance at the Plychumpol Irrigation Scheme Water resource management in Nan river basin and Phitsanulok Irrigated Agriculture Development Project Storage 769 MCM Kaew Noi Dam Kaew Noi Dam Project Sirikit Dam Irrrigation area 155,166 rai Naresuan Dam Chao Phraya Dam Phraya man weir Chao Phraya River Gulf of Thailand Yom River Ping River Storage 9,510 MCM Plychumpol O&M Scheme 1,600 m3/sec Naresuan Dam Sirikit Dam Phitsanulok Irrigated Agriculture Development Project Irrigable area 105,070 Ha Water resource management: Main irrigation Phitsanulok Irrigated Agriculture canal C1 Development Project Naresuan O&M Scheme Irrigable area 14,560 Ha Plychumpol O&M scheme Irrigable area 33,800 Ha Dong Sethi O&M scheme Irrigable area 29,760 Ha Tha Bua O&M scheme Irrigable area 26,950 Ha Plychumpol O&M Scheme is one of the four projects, which are known as “Phitsanulok Irrigated Agriculture Development Project’ Water supply is from Sirikit and Naresuan Dams, and water is diverted to the right main canal Irrigation Infrastructure Infrastructure in irrigation system Main canal: 72 km Sub-lateral canals: 307 km 870 Regulators and Infrastructure Infrastructure in drainage system 30 Drainage canals: 176 km 140 Regulators and Infrastructure Drain water into Wang Makham canal, Mem canal, Bangkaew canal and Yom river, respectively Flood mitigation Flood dikes: DK1 & DK 2; 120km 40 Regulators Drainage canals: DR 2.8 & 15.8 Head Regulator: Right Main canal Regulator in main canal Right main canal (C1) Sub-lateral canal CC potential impacts in relation to water resource management Water shortage Weather forecast and water resource management uncertainty Severe drought and flood Damage to agricultural yield Damage to community CC potential impacts to agricultural community Change in farmers’ way of life Fishery impact Shift in land use Argument amongst several water users Migration Non structural measure Improvement of Rule-Curve management Up-to-date data and map within irrigation area Considering a rotation water delivery system Adjust to appropriate crop calendar Decrease to 2 crops/ year Strengthening water user associations/ groups R&D and switching to crops that use less water Structural measure Proofing irrigation infrastructure in response to CC Increase capacity of existing water storage Alternative water supply: underground water, reuse, recycle Dredging & widening natural canals, constructing detention basin Installing of early warning system Installing of telemetry system for water situation analysis Rehabilitation - Improve drainage capacity from 110 m3/sec to 500 m3/sec BEFORE Regulator AFTER Regulator with weir 1 Rehabilitation - Dredging natural drain to improve drainage capacity BEFORE Shallowed canal AFTER for drainage purpose During implementation Obstruction กม.6+600 กม.3+40 0 กม.0+100 2 Rehabilitation - Dredging natural pond to increase detention capacity Dike along the marsh Water intake 3 Khi Reng marsh: dredging Completion During implementation Rehabilitation - Lining Irrigation canal and expanding regulator capacity Before After Before After Proofing Pumping station at the tail end of drainage system Drain detention water to the river Proofing Flood diversion to lessen city municipal damages and losses via main canal detention area within Regulator agricultural fields Regulator Cost Benefit Analysis Assumptions for the analysis Costs include 1. O&M = Annual operation costs i.e. weed eradication 2. Rehabilitation = Improvement costs for better management i.e. lining canal 3. Proofing = Investment costs in response to climate change i.e. increase storage capacity Benefits include 1. Increase of yield – mainly paddy 2. Flood mitigation No Proofing millions baht millions baht BCR (without CC) = 2.9 BCR (with CC) = 2.6 yield Proofing millions baht millions baht BCR (without CC) = 2.8 BCR (with CC) = 3.2 yield CHALLENGES The long term, global, and uncertain nature of climate change. ‐ Challenges to Quantifying Damages (environmental and social impacts) from Climate Change Uncertainty in Assessing the Benefits of Climate Policy Results from model and understanding in different assumptions across models Water related disaster in Thailand Flooded Drought 2011 (World Bank, 2012) 2014 (estimated) Ag. area affected 1,170,350 ha Ag. area affected 1,600,000 ha + Ag. loss 1,260 million US$ 26 provinces effected Linking with Bureau of Budget, MoF, and National Planning Agencies: “Do We have the same Wave Length?” Climate change does not respect border; it does not respect who you are –rich and poor, small and big. Therefore, this is what we call ‘global challenges’, which require global solidarity Ban Ki-Moon Secretary-General of the United Nations.
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