Thailand Flood 2011 One Year Retrospective

October 2012 table of contents

Executive Summary 1

Susceptibility of Chao Phraya Basin to Floods 2

Thailand Monsoons and Cyclones 3

Correlation between ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and Thailand Monsoonal Rainfall 4

Increased Risk of Thailand Typhoon Activity and Rainfall during La Niña 5

Increased Number of Typhoons and Rainfall Amount Impacting Thailand in 2011 6

Role of the Dams 7

2011 Flood Event 9

Concentration of Insured Value in Industrial Parks 10

Property and Related Supply Chain LOSSES with Industrial Parks 11

Threat to 14

Summary of Insured Losses 15

Why are the damages so significant? 16

Guy Carpenter Thailand Flood Model 16

Current Status of Recovery Efforts 17

Recovery progress by Industrial park 18

Japanese firms recovering 18 Executive Summary

In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand. Flooding also forced seven huge industrial estates in central regions to close, causing damage to the industrial sector in the billions of U.S. dollars. It is interesting to note that prior to 2011, none of the industrial parks in Thailand had been flooded over the past 40 years. During the last major flood in 1995, the dykes in the industrial parks kept floodwaters out. In last year’s flooding, however, heavy machinery was reportedly not brought in to raise the height of dykes for fear of damaging them and instead sandbags were used, which ultimately gave way to the floodwaters.

Damage and disruption to the manufacturing sector was massive after defenses protecting several industrial estates were breached. The Labour Ministry said that more than 14,000 businesses nationwide had to close because of the floods. Factories in the provinces of Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani were particularly badly hit. Reports said around 1,300 factories across were affected by the floods, disrupting manufacturing supply chains inside and outside of Thailand. Many of these industrial estates housed both local and international factories and businesses, with large numbers manufacturing electronic components and car parts

Thailand

Elevation map and flooding extent 2011 flood (Source: NASA SRTM and Thailand Flood Monitoring System)

The production of cars, electronics and other goods was suspended for months as hundreds of factories were under water. Disruption to supply chains also halted operations, causing a knock on effect on global manufacturing. The disruption to operations lasted several months and had an impact on production similar to that caused by the Tohoku earthquake in March 2011. Thailand plays a critical role in the global supply chain and companies needed to organise alternative production facilities or supply routes for parts.

The intention of this report is to provide an in-depth review of the meteorological and man-made factors, including the concentration of t risks in industrial parks, that contributed to the scope and cost of the flood event. The report also reviews how Guy Carpenter can assist hailand clients in measuring the potential for future losses resulting from floods in Thailand. f l oo d 2011 d

1 2 guy carpenter gradually from thebeginningofSeptember uptothepeakinOctober, estimatedat5,000m The 1995floodwasthemostseriouseventinbasinsince1942. TheriverflowatBangSaisouthofAyutthaya increased extensive. 434mm inAugustalone,then405mmOctoberandNovember. Large areas ofthelowerbasinwere unprotected andtheflooding was The 1983 flood event was generated by unusually heavy rainfall throughout the basin from 10 years. 1831. The1942floodhadareturn periodofabout100years,the1995flood50199625years andthe2006floodabout return periodsofthesefloodscanbeestimatedfrom thelongtermrecord ofannualmaximumwaterlevelsatAyutthaya, kept since The highestfloodsintheChaoPhraya R iver Basinintermsofdischarge were observedin1831,1942,1983,1995,1996and2006.The the upperbasinfloodsplainsupstream ofBangkok. city toabout3,000m discharges andfloodlevelstogetherwithincreased urbanizationlimitedthedischarge capacityofChaoPhraya Riverthrough the protection hasbeencarriedout,changingthedrainage networke.g.byelevatingembankments.Thishassignificantlyincreased river hazards butallegedlywithoutalwaysfollowingsoundengineeringpractice orevenwithoutproper maintenance programmes. Flood increased theexposure andalsothevulnerability towards floods.Manyfloodcontrol measures havebeendevelopedtomitigatethe Over thepastdecades,rapid urbanisationinBangkok, thegrowth ofprovincial cities,andtheintensificationofagriculture have 30 days. basin andduringheavyprolonged rainfall overthelowerbasininOctoberandNovember. W those repeated events.Thelowerbasinreceives floodwavestravelling through theriversystemfollowingmonsoonrainfall intheupper Flood isanatural phenomenoninthelowerChaoPhrayaRiver Basinandthelocalpopulationhashistoricallyadaptedtheirlifestyleto the agricultural sectorisduetothelarge influenceofindustrythathasdevelopedaround Bangkok andintheindustrialestates. GDP inthebasin.Manufacturing(33%)andwholesaleretail trade (17%)haveahighershare oftheGDP of 3,000m months intoDecember. 3 /s through Bangkok, theexcess flowspread across thefloodplain.Floodingtoadepthof0.5m2.0m remained for2to3 Chao Phraya RiverBasin(Source: Wikipedia) Chao PhrayaRiverBasin 3 /s (260millionm 3 /day), creating abottleneck fortheupstream flooddrainage. Asaresult, theexcess flowfrom

exporterworldwide,agriculture accountsforonly5%ofthe population) ofwhich70%are farmers.Despitebeingthelargest The ChaoPhraya RiverBasinhasanarea of162,000km About 20millionpeopleliveinthebasin(30%ofThai April toMay, and October toNovember. the upperbasinfrom JunetoSeptember, andthelowerbasinin causing heavyfloods.T 1,400mm withabout90percent fallingduringthisperiod, May toOctober. Annualrainfall isbetween1,000mmand Monsoon weatherdominates,witharainy seasonlastingfrom approximately 1.5mper100km. sea levelwithanoverall gradient towards theGulfofThailand surface elevationofthefloodplainisafewmetersabovemean productive flatalluvialplainintensively usedforagriculture. The mountainous intheupperregion. Thelowerregion isahighly a lengthofapproximately 700km. TheChaoPhraya basinis C S uscep ha o

P hraya t ibili August to 3 aters usuallyriseslowlyandpeakafter 20to /s. Withamaximumdischarge capacity ropical stormsandcyclonespenetrate t y y B November, with of asin asin

. Thesmalloverall share of to Fl Bangkok receiving oo 2 and ds thailand flood 2011 3 ebruary brings the cold t moves northwards rapidly and rapidly art of Thailand. It moves northwards Northeast Monsoon (Source: EOS) Northeast Monsoon (Source: acific Ocean or the South China Sea. Thailand is normally nes Z) and tropical cyclones which produce cyclones which produce Z) and tropical (ITC Zone Convergence ropical o ycl C ovember 1997 as a tropical storm. By in November 1997 as a tropical Khiri Khan province ” hit Prachuap ns and oo ns Southwest Monsoon (Source: EOS) Southwest Monsoon (Source: Mo The frequency of tropical cyclones moving through Thailand during 61 years (1951 - 2011) (Source: Thai Met Dept) Thailand during 61 years (1951 - 2011) (Source: cyclones moving through of tropical The frequency hailand usually move from the western North P Thailand usually move from affecting cyclones ropical Thailand T which obstruct and decrease farther inland and due to some mountain ranges because of its location depressions by tropical affected storms and typhoon. Some high risk of tropical moving into Thailand. Only the Southern part has a relatively the wind speed before ” hit Chumphon October 1962; typhoon “GAY in province storm “HARRIET” hit Nakhon Si Thammarat tropical examples: recent November 1989; and typhoon “LINDA in province the through They usually pass Thailand about 1 to 2 times a year. cyclones usually move across considering the annual mean, tropical October to December. Thailand from southern move across Northern and Northeastern parts in early southwest monsoon season and hailand is under the influence of monsoon winds of seasonal character i.e. southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon. i.e. southwest character of monsoon winds of seasonal The climate of Thailand is under the influence the Ocean Indian air from of warm moist October brings a stream starts in May and ends in which generally The southwest monsoon is side of the mountains. Rainfall during this period windward especially the over the country, rain Thailand causing abundant towards southwest monsoon but also by the Inter T not only caused by the place is said to experience monsoon if its low-level winds persist in one direction for a period of several months and then switch for a period of several direction one monsoon if its low-level winds persist in A place is said to experience regime. Much of Southeast Asia is within the monsoon the year. for another period within direction Z to the Southern P May is the period of first arrival of the ITC amount of rainfall. a large Z then moves in a causes a dry spell over upper Thailand. The ITC June to early July which generally China around southern lies across and Southern parts Thailand in August and later over the Central to lie over the Northern and Northeastern parts of southerly direction starts in October and ends in F The northeast monsoon which generally respectively. in September and October, Thailand, especially the Northern and Northeastern parts which is higher the anticyclone in China over major parts of and dry air from along the eastern coast. rain weather and abundant In the Southern part, this monsoon causes mild latitude areas. 4 guy carpenter The easternP interannual andinterdecadal variationsassociated withENSO While thelong-termtrends intemperature andprecipitation maybelinked toglobaltrends, itisimportanttounderstandthe something else. equatorial P decades. Thequestiontobeanswered iswhatcausestheshifts inENSO-related SeaSurfaceT The findingsseemtoargue fortropical-wide ENSO-related circulation shifts withmore easternP decreases convection,andtheIndianmonsoongetsimpactedmuch more thantheThailandmonsoon. International DateLinethenthedescendingbranch ofthe W (e.g., snowcover)are thedominantdrivingforce formonsoonalvariability. Ontheotherhand,ifENSsare centered overthe the Thailandmonsoon).Inthissituation,ndiansubcontinentisnotdirectly influencedbyENSO thereby, reducing convectioninthetropical westernP while theThailandmonsoonpicksupcorrelation. monsoon showsaweakening initsrelationship withENSO The variabilityinrecent decades(post-1980)seemstobestrongly linked withENSO Co and Thailand Thailand and summer monsoonandtheSOI(dotted line).Thedashedlineat0.45 Walker circulation subsidenceduetoElNinophaseofENSOduringpre-1980 soon rainfall andtheSOIindex(solidline)betweenIndian The 21-yrmovingwindowcorrelation betweentheThailandmon- is the95%significancelevel(Source: Singhrattna etal,2004) rrela acific? Itcouldbearesult ofenhancedmidlatitudewarming,natural variabilityofthetropical P acific–centered ENSOstendtoconstrain thedescendingbranch oftheW t period (Source: Singhrattna ,1995) i o n be n Mo t ween ween ns oo ENS nal nal acific regions andconsequently, impactingtherainfall intheseregions (including O ( O R . Around 1980,theIndianmonsoonstartstoloseitscorrelation withENSO ain fishing, particularly those bordering the regions of the world. appears to cause extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many T oscillation remain understudy. low airsurfacepressure inthewesternP pressure inthewesternP are coupled:thewarmoceanicphase, ElNiño,accompanieshighairsurface and inairsurfacepressure inthetropical westernP Ocean (warmingandcoolingknownasElNiñoLaiñarespectively) variations inthetemperature ofthesurfacetropical easternP P ENSO isaquasiperiodicclimatepattern thatoccursacross thetropical 1980. Priorto1980there ishardly anyrelationship. ENSO index,are plotted (solidline).Significantcorrelations are seenafter rainfall andtheSouthernOscillationindex(SOI),asealevelpressure–based F E alker circulation hasawiderreach overtheIndiansubcontinent.This he extremes of this climate pattern’s oscillations, El or a21-yearmovingwindow, correlations betweenThailandmonsoon acific Oceanroughly everyfiveyears. The SouthernOscillationrefers to . l l f N all iñ Walker circulation subsidenceduetoElNinophaseofENSOduringpost-1980 o - So D eveloping countries dependent upon agriculture and u . Interestingly, duringthesameperiod, Indian acific, whilethecoldphase,LaNiña,accompanies t alker circulation withintheP hern Oscilla hern period (Source: Singhrattna, 1995) emperature (SST)patterns inthe acific–centered ENSOsinrecent P , andlandsurfaceprocesses acific. Mechanismsthatcausethe acific O acific systemoritcouldbe cean, are the most affected. acific. Thetwovariations N iño and acific domain, t i o L a n) n) N iña, acific thailand flood 2011 5 ahiti and acific and in all f acific typical of La ain R y and t acific (northern and southern hemisphere) acific (northern and southern hemisphere) ivi t c estern P A n nd conversely, prolonged prolonged And conversely, acific typical of El Niño episodes. abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical the eastern tropical waters across abnormally warm ocean P periods of positive SOI values coincide with abnormally cold P the eastern tropical ocean waters across Niña episodes. In the W tend to be fewer cyclones during a El Niño event and there during La Niña - which was evident in 2011. more on the maps and drier regions of both wetter The occurrence the tendency of La Niña events to displace rainfall below reflect local or decrease as well as enhance geographically patterns the P around robust more are Effects precipitation. regions. tropical oo n any individual year the observed climate anomaly over a region In any individual year the observed climate anomaly over a region may be a complex combination of many factors, of which La Niña is just one. These other factors will include local sea surface climate variation, volcanic other modes of natural temperatures, to eruptions and solar variations. Rainfall in Thailand is highly related above. El Niño and La Niña phenomena as shown in the graph decades the number of El Niño events have During the last several and the number of La Niña events have decreased, increased, although we may need to observe ENSO for much longer to detect fluctuation The question is whether this is a random changes. robust or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon or the result global warming. It remains of global climate changes toward for now. unanswered (Source: OCHA) (Source: Thailand Typh of rolonged periods of negative SOI values coincide with rolonged at Darwin. P air pressure ahiti and above-normal isk iña R N evidence does exist to support country correlation of a higher flooding risk in South East Asia in La Niña years. of a higher flooding risk in South East Asia in La evidence does exist to support country correlation a L (Source: Chamnong Kaeochada, 2005) Chamnong Kaeochada, (Source: Schematic maps indicative of typical rainfall tendencies during a La Niña event. Precise geographical detail is not implied although geographical Niña event. Precise tendencies during a La Schematic maps indicative of typical rainfall represents episodes. SOI represents The negative phase of the La Niña Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and acific (i.e. the state of the Affect of ENSO event on monthly rainfall in Thailand of ENSO event on monthly rainfall Affect Southern Oscillation Index time series 1876-2011 (Source: Wikipedia) Southern Oscillation Index time series 1876-2011 (Source: ncreased during I is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern occurring in air pressure fluctuations of the large-scale The SOI is one measure Darwin, Australia. P tropical at T below-normal air pressure ) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between T differences the observed sea level pressure index based on Index (SOI) is a standardized The Southern Oscillation 6 guy carpenter 1995 was23.5billionm 1999. Thisisasimilarvaluetoprevious estimatesofrunoff atthePhitsanulokObservatory. T total discharge oftheChaoPhraya riveratNakhonSawanin2011was32.6billionm change inevaporation rates, itisestimatedthatrunoff wasapproximately 860mmduring2011,whichis246%ofnormalvalues.The Considering thewaterbudget,350mmdifference isregarded simplyasrunoff, whichflowsintorivers.Assuming there isalmostno during 1951to2011was1.5,with5ormore typhoonsmakinglandfallinThailandayearonlythree times: 1964,1971and1972 rainfall during1971to2000.Inaddition,5typhoonsmadelandfallinThailand in2011.Theaverage numberoftyphoonsperyear recorded during1971to2000.Thetotalrainfall duringthe2011rainy seasonwas1,439mm,whichis124%oftheaverage rainy season In 2011,monthlyrainfall exceededtheaverage rainfall fortheentire rainy season,withhigherJulyandSeptemberrainfall thanany I I ncreased ncreased mpac Mean AnnualRainfallinThailandabove-belownormalpercentage Rainfall distribution–byRegion(inmm) (Source: ThaiMetDept) t ing Thailand in 2011 in Thailand ing (Normal: 1971-2000)(Source: ThaiMetDept) Typhoons affecting Thailand in2011(Source: Komori, 2011) N 3 , whichis167%oftheaverage during1956to1999. umber umber of Typh 23.8% oo ns and and ns rainy seasonwere 1,192mmand842mmrespectively. normal valuesofcumulativerainfall andpanevaporation inthe Y Meteorological Department(Phitsanulokobservatory)inthe for example,observationdata(1971to2000)bytheThai are consistentlythemajortypeof landuseinThailand. and otheryears,becausericepaddies,namelyawetsurface, season evaporation andinfiltration rates betweenthe floodyear It canbeassumed thatthere wasnomajordifference inrainy strongly influencedtherainfall in2011. (1964 &1971were LaNiñayears). The prevalence oftyphoons Rainfall distribution–byMonth(inmm) (Source: ThaiMetDept) om Riverwatershed,whichhasmanyrain-fed paddies,the R ain 3 , whichwas232%oftheaverage valuefor1956to f all all otal discharge recorded inthefloodyearof A m o un t

28.5% 18.4% 26.5% aking, thailand flood 2011 7 ), 3 River Chin Pa Sak Dam . Tha 3 Dam The om River (watershed Location of Dams Location (Source: Wikipedia) (Source: ), Y 2 iver (watershed area a Sak River (watershed area ) from the right bank between the right ) from 2 Chao Phraya Dam Bhumibol Dam , built in 1964) was constructed on the 2 , built in 1974) was constructed on the 2 or the purposes of irrigation and power . F 2 a Sak River in 1999, and another 2 dams (total 409 million om River watershed, plans have been made to build the iver (watershed area 10,800 km ang River (watershed area . In the Y ), W 3 2 iver watersheds, bringing the total reservoir capacity ang, and watersheds, bringing the total reservoir , catchment area 26,000 km , catchment area 3 , catchment area 13,000 km , catchment area 3 ) flow down from the northern mountain system and join together ) flow down from (Source: Thai Met Dept) (Source: 2 Annual Rainfall anomalies (mm) in 2011 ) was constructed on the P 3 epartment, which is responsible for the to the Royal Irrigation Department, which is responsible ), and 1995. According 3 iver, and irrigation water is diverted to the left and right banks of the river. river. the of banks right and left the to diverted is water irrigation and River, ctober, did the discharge drop below the drop did the discharge October, on October 13. Not until the end of was recorded /s am reservoir, but these are yet to be constructed. yet but these are ) and a conduit to the Sirikit Dam reservoir, 3 3 hraya Phraya Chao ams August, as well as in the middle of in the middle of in 2011 exceeded the threshold The discharge /s. 3 D ), 1975 (24.1 billion m 3 he a Sak River Dam (960 million m t iver (watershed area 34,300 km ), and Nan River (watershed area

2 en River Dam (1.15 billion m ). The P of 2 (Source: Thai Met Dept) (Source: Annual Rainfall (mm) in 2011 le ) have been built on the right bank of the . 3 aeng Sua T Ro m am (reservoir capacity 9.5 billion m the Sirikit Dam (reservoir and , Another 5 dams have been constructed for the Ping, W Nan River. am reservoirs to 24.7 billion m including the Bhumibol and Sirikit Dam reservoirs area 23,600 km 23,600 area peak discharge of 4,698 m A peak discharge September. hese results show that flooding in 2011 continued about one month longer than in other years, show that flooding in 2011 continued about capacity of . These results discharge 12 billion m large was an extremely estimated to have flooded downstream area discharge and that the cumulative excess iver (watershed area 5,000 km River (watershed area River joins with the Sakae Krang In the lower watershed, the Chao Phraya iver (watershed area 33,900 km In the upper watershed, the Ping River (watershed area akhon Sawan occurred in 2011, 1970 (28.4 billion m to 1999 and 2011 at Nakhon Sawan occurred during 1956 The top 5 events in terms of total discharge am (reservoir capacity 13.5 billion m the Bhumibol Dam (reservoir generation, K iver branch off from the right bank upstream of the dam. The Tha Chin River flows down to the sea, but the Noi River joins the right bank upstream from off and the Noi River branch River joins with the P the Chao Phraya of Ayutthaya, Downstream River south of Ayutthaya. the Chao Phraya 14,300 km am (built in 1957), which was constructed 96 km downstream from Nakhon Sawan. This dam from Dam (built in 1957), which was constructed 96 km downstream Nakhon Sawan and the Chao Phraya the of discharge the controls hraya River above which capacity of the lower watershed of theChao Phraya discharge Dam, the threshold of the Chao Phraya operation flooding occurs is 2,000 m he total area of the upper watershed is approximately 110,000 km of the upper watershed is approximately at Nakhon Sawan. The total area 1961 (24.8 billion m 8 guy carpenter of around 90millionm 2 billionm of rainfall, whichwashighestinmore than 60years,butbetter managementofdamscouldhaveresulted inlowerdischarges (byabout about 22%ofthedischarge intheChaoPhraya basin. FloodinginThailand2011couldnothavebeen avoidedduetothehighamount the floodsbecauseitledtotoomuchwaterneedingbedischarged from Augustonwards. TheBhumibolandSirikitdamscontribute There wassimplytoomuchwaterforthesystemtomanage.However, itmaybepossible thatthelatedischarge ofwaterexacerbated be openedfrom theendofAugustuntilearlySeptember, whilespillwaysattheBhumibolDamopenedinOctober. nearly allofthecountry’s damsreaching fullcapacity, includingtheBhumibolandSirikitdams.ThespillwaysforDamhadto halted waterdischarges duringtheperiod.F their banksandcausedfloodinginPhitsanulok,Sukhothai,hichit NakhonBoth thehumibolDamandSirikit Sawan. When tropical stormHaimahitinJune,thecountry’s free-flowing rivers,includingtheSakaeKrang, theY dam capacitywashigherthantheprevious sixyears.Ontheotherhand,little waterwasdischarged betweenMarch 25andJuly13. cubic metersaswell.Theinflowincreased almost1billionm The storage isinmillioncubicmetersandtheyearsfrom left torightare 2006(2549)to2011(2554).TheInflowandOutflowisinmillion August 1is3.353billionm 2011 exceedsprevious years,butonecanalsoseethelinegoesupmuchearlierthanmostyears.Theaccumulatedinflowofwateron cubic metersaswell.2011hasthemostamountofwaterenteringdam reservoir. ItisinearlyJunethatwaterenteringthedams The storage isinmillioncubicmetersandtheyearsfrom left torightare 2006(2549)to2011(2554).TheInflowandOutflowisinmillion The followingthree chartsforBhumiboldambelowshouldbeconsidered together. If weconsiderthethree chartsforSirikitdambelow. before thefloodingstarted. Amount ofwaterstored intheBhumibolDam Amount ofwaterstored intheSirikitDam 3 )intheChaoPhraya river betweenSeptemberandOctoberconsequentlylowerflood heights. (Source: AsianCorrespondent) (Source: AsianCorrespondent) 3 aday. A rguably, notenoughwaterwasdischarged earlyontherainy seasonandparticularlyfrom March toJuly 3 andincreased to11.689billionm rom theendofJulythrough toOctober, fourmore majorstormshitthecountry, leadingto (Source: AsianCorrespondent) (Source: AsianCorrespondent) 3 Accumulated Inflowofwater Accumulated Inflowofwater from 5.201billionm 3 onNovember1.Thisis8.336billionm 3 to6.140m 3 intheweektoJuly2.BylateJune2011, 3 overthree monthsoranaverage (Source: AsianCorrespondent) (Source: AsianCorrespondent) Accumulated Outflowofwater Accumulated Outflowofwater om andtheW ang, allburst thailand flood 2011 9 t is also the world’s worst flood orld Bank. It is also the world’s Time line for flooding (Source: Komori, 2011) Komori, Time line for flooding (Source: here were eight levee breaks on the left bank of the Chao the left on eight levee breaks were There between the middle to the end of September river from Phraya It took the water two weeks to Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya. Indus- points to Saha Rattananakorn the levee break from travel trial park which was fully inundated on October 6 (first breach inundated in October 4).A total of seven Industrial parks were the month of October. in late October and the flood Bangkok Floodwaters reached The grim until end November. situation in the city remained flooding situation was exacerbated by higher tide levels in the the flood waters Bay of Thailand in November which prevented Bangkok. flowing out to the sea threatening quickly from The flooding in Thailand lasted until December and was fourth costliest disaster as of 2011 described as the world’s to the W according disaster in terms of losses. am starting July. the Sirikit Dam starting July. from the Nan River downstream om River lower watershed and t ven (Source: Komori, 2011) Komori, (Source: E d which was estimated from the difference in the hydrograph between the upstream and downstream parts at the and downstream between the upstream in the hydrograph the difference which was estimated from 3 oo Discharge capacity of (Source: Komori, 2011) Komori, river (Source: capacity of Chao Phraya Discharge Points of levee crevasse between Chao Phraya Dam and Ayutthaya Dam and Ayutthaya between Chao Phraya of levee crevasse Points he flooding of the left bank in late September moved to the bank in late September moved The flooding of the left was almost full. the Bhumibol Dam reservoir By the beginning of October, bank. on the left South, inundating a series of industrial estates levee failure locations. levee failure iver exceeded its discharge capacity between capacityNakhon River exceeded its discharge the Chao Phraya was almost full and the Sirikit Dam reservoir By September, by the flood, destroyed water gates on the right bank were In the middle of the month, and began to overflow. Sawan and Ayutthaya, was flooding of and there another, one after bank broke levees on the left At the end of the month, flooding occurred. and massive 5 billion m around akhon Sawan, and it was no longer possible to increase preliminary water releases to water releases preliminary to increase no longer possible near Nakhon Sawan, and it was in the area In August, flooding had begun both reservoirs. from flooding downstream prevent looding occurred at the confluence of the Y at the confluence Flooding occurred 2011 Fl 10 guy carpenter and itsproximity toBangkok. F although theborder withCambodiaand Laos (leadingtoVietnam)couldprovide somepotential forthefuture. Southern eaboard area – Central Area – Northern area – North Easternarea – Eastern Seaboard area – The industrialestatemarket inThailandcanbedividedintofivemainzonesaccording toColliersInternationalThailand.heseare: owned andoperated bytheIEAT develop andoperate industrialestatesinorder topromote systematicindustrialgrowth. Currently, there are 28estatesofwhich9are Industrial EstateAuthorityofThailand(EAT) isastateenterpriseestablishedin1972undertheMinistryofIndustry. IEAT ischartered to areas. estates plannedfordevelopmentin2012willbemore focusedonnon-floodareas, suchastheNorthEasternandSeaboard this isthemainconcernfornewindustrialestatedevelopmentandexpansion oftheexistingindustrialestates.Most than 90%ofthetotalsupply. MostindustrialestatesintheCentral area were damagedbythefloods inthefourthquarterof2011and industrial estatemarket, accountingfornearlytwo-thirds ofthetotalsupply. TheEasternSeaboard andCentral areas accountformore The totalsupplyin2011wasaround 200millionm²(20,000hectares). SupplyintheEasternSeaboard area dominatestheThai A considerable numberofstand-alonefactoriesexistoutsidetheindustrialestatesinThailand. well asheavyindustrialprojects basedonoilandfrozen seafoodproducts. environment, anditsunfavourable topography. Itsproximity toChinahaspotentialastrade betweenthetwocountriesincreases. Co ncen Supply byZone (Source: IEAT andColliers) Take upRateforindustries during2008-2011(Source: Colliers) Anotherkey industrialarea duetoitsproximity toBangkok anduseasadistributioncenter. t ra Limited industrialactivityhastaken placehere sofarduetoitsremote location,itspredominantly agricultural t Theremoteness ofthisarea andpoortransport means thatthearea hasaminorshare ofindustrialactivity i o This istheindustrialpowerhouseduetoitslocationnearhailand’s maincontainerport,LaemChabang n n urther growth hascomeaboutdue tosuppliersclusteringaround large manufacturers. Anunderdeveloped industrialarea cateringmainlytotheMalaysianmarket withhalalfoodproduce as . Othersare jointventures betweentheIEAT andprivatedevelopers. of

I nsured nsured manufacturing facilitieshere. and ASEANhavesomeshare, otherpartsoftheworldhaveverylimited 50% ofthetotalinvested,followedbyEastAsiawith13%.WhileEuropean The Japaneseremain thelargest investorsinThailandwithapproximately Eastern Seaboard Area orotherlocationsin2012beyond. of theyear. Manyinvestorsfrom floodedareas are planningtomovethe flood-affected Central area, duetotheincrease indemand inthefirsthalf The take-up rate forindustriesincreased ineveryzone2011,eventhe V alue in in alue I ndus t rial rial Proportion ofInvestorsin IndustrialEstates (Source: IEAT andColliers) P arks thailand flood 2011 11 oo h t wi SSES O L hain C Flooding in Rojana Industrial estate upply upply oyota had to suspend production for several weeks because of flood damage and weeks for several oyota had to suspend production S Affected Industrial Parks (Source: Bangkok Post etc) Post Bangkok (Source: Industrial Parks Affected yutthaya of Ayutthaya province badly-affected in the Nakorn) Rattana actory Land, Rojana and Saha ed t ech, F T han, Bang Phli and Bang P Bang C Lat Krabang, The industrial estates of athum Thani Province. ela a-in, Hi- R arks P akorn industrial estate in industrial The Nava Nakorn by floodwaters of up to 3.4 metres. inundated ech, all 130 factories were Thailand. by the floods in affected were 450 Japanese manufacturers In total, around ohoku earthquake. T y and t rial t per o r hailand’s oldest and largest industrial estates with a high concentration of Japanese manufacturers, was was of Japanese manufacturers, concentration industrial estates with a high oldest and largest one of Thailand’s athum Thani Province, ndus I P were flooded. At Hi- were P were estate was overwhelmed when flood defences factories. A seventh big industrial several submerged floodwaters evacuated after P at the Bangkadi estate in breached and T Honda, Nissan Japanese car manufacturers to suspend production. forced in Thailand were with operations component shortages. All nine of the Japanese car manufacturers Japanese on a daily basis. Several of 6,000 units was affected production Association, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers to According yen and the power shortages that continue to affect to Thailand to negate the strong moving production increasingly companies were Japan following the T Bang-P Five industrial estates ( remained at risk of being flooded. remained 12 guy carpenter production. in theindustrialarea ofAyutthaya slasheditsfull-yearoperating profit outlookby 90%onNovember2asthefloodsdisrupted itscamera The impactonelectronic companiesintheregion wassevere. Sony, who manufactured allofitsdigital singlelensreflex (SLR)cameras affected bysupply shortages. factories intheindustrialparksofBangkadiandNavaakorn were inundatedbyfloodwaterofupto1.5m). Other companieswere also Several electronics firmsandchipmakers suspendedoutputatfactoriesintheregion becauseoftheflooddamage(twoT recovered. Mazda otorCorporation resumed production ofpassenger carsatitsfactoryinThailandonNovember14after partssupplypartially in industrialestateswere earliershutdownbytheflooding.Itrestarted production onNovember14. Mitsubishi otorsCorporation hadtohaltproduction linesinLaemChabangindustrialestateon October 13asitsauto-partsuppliers production inNorthAmerica,Europe andChinaduetoamore robust supplychainstrengthened after theT supply networkinaneffort tolimitoutputlosses to40,000vehiclesinThailand.Nissan prevented anyimpactfrom Thailand’s floodson sparing itsfactoriesintheregion. Nissan startedwork partiallyfrom 14Novemberbyprocuring substitutepartsthrough itsglobal Nissan, meanwhile, halteditsproduction inThailandon October 17after thefloodsinundatedabout120ofitssupplierswith vehicles inThailandand40,000JapanbetweenOctober10toNovember 12. Africa. T vehicles aweek.T output outsidethecountry, withT is itsthird-largest outsideofJapan.In2010,itproduced about630,000vehiclesinThailand.hefloodsalsoaffected thecompany’s supply shortagescausedbysubmerged roads andfactories.Thesituationwasaseriousblowfor Although thefloodscausednophysicalimpacttoplants,T production backtonormalbythe middleofthemonth.Hondaplanstoexport 40,000unitsin2012from Thailand. In December, Hondadestroyed 1,055carsthat were damagedinthefloodsatplant. Honda openedit’s plantinearlyAprilwith in Thailandforced ittoscalebackits NorthAmericanproduction inNovember. on Honda’s production wasalsofeltoutsideofThailand.Onctober31Hondasaidashortageelectronic partscausedbythefloods Asia, annuallyproducing 240,000 cars.OutputatasecondHondaplantinThailandwashaltedduetopartsupplyshortages.heimpact Honda haltedoperations atitsfactoryinRojana,Ayutthaya Province, onOctober4.Thefactoryisthecompany’s largest inSoutheast oyota Motorsrestarted production linesatitsplantsinThailandonNovember21. Bang Pa-in industrialparkbefore breach oyota hadtoalsocutbackworkinIndonesia,VietnamandthePhilippinesUnitedStates,CanadaSouth oyota havingtocancelovertimeatallitsJapanesevehicleplants,causingaproduction loss of7,000 oyota suspendedproduction atitsThaifactoriesonOctober10dueto Cars atHondafactoryinRojanaindustrialparkafter flooding oyota estimateditlostproduction of87,000 (Source: Reuters) oyota, whoseproduction inThailand ohoku earthquake. oshiba thailand flood 2011 13 artial Damage to machinery due to flooding akorn estate was Nakorn Saha Rattana op Buri after Flooding in Bangkadi Industrial estate (Source: Bangkadi IP) Bangkadi Industrial estate (Source: Flooding in Bangkadi A levee breach leading to flooding A levee breach Damage to machinery and stock in a factory hai unit in 2012 will be halved the T from generated expects its revenue leading footwear company, the world’s Ecco, Denmark-based it is located. P of the industrial estate where inundations and the bankruptcy period on uncertainty over future the pre-flood from In the fourth quarter in mid-January. Industrial Estate in Ayutthaya Nakorn factory in Saha Rattana at Ecco’s has resumed production L site in factory to a temporary the Ayutthaya of 2011, Ecco moved its machinery from inundated. ctober 10, causing concerns about supplies at its factory in Thailand on October 10, causing concerns disk motors of hard Nidec suspended production Elsewhere, in the disk production set to cause a slump of up to 30% in hard floods are by IHS iSuppli suggested the esearch to other companies. R the first shortages may continue throughout same period last year and warned supply to the months of this year compared last three half of 2012. anon was also affected by the floods, and it’s factory reopened on December 15. factory reopened by the floods, and it’s Canon was also affected camera production, production, SLR camera accounted for 90% of the company’s and SLR cameras to mid range low Thailand plant, which produced Nikon’s to 2m. by floodwaters of up floor of the plant was submerged that the first The company reported was damaged by the floodwaters. in January 2012. on October 6 and partially opened at the factory was suspended Production 14 guy carpenter of theChaoPhraya Riverlowerwatershed. Bangkok. However, floodshavenotoccurred frequently inBangkok becausemostoftheexcess waterisstored upstream infloodplains the ChaoPhraya RiveratBangkok isonlyabouta3-yearprobability riverdischarge ifthere isnofloodingfrom theChaoPhraya Damto ICA) releasedAccording in1999,thedischarge toafloodsurveyreportcapacityof bytheJapanInternationalCooperation Agency(J flooding becameanincreasing problem inlow-lyingpartsofthecity. season flooding.Thesystemofcanalshadservedtodrain thewaterloggedChaoPhraya Delta,soasthekhlongswere turnedintoroads and construct roads as car use increased. But beginninginthe1950s,onadviceofinternationaldevelopmentagencies, mostofthecanalswere filledintocombatmalaria and thecity’s transportation systemwasbuiltaround watertravel. Apart from themainriverwhichcuts thecityintwo,Bangkok wasoncecriss-crossed bycanals,orkhlongs,thatcovertheriverbasin Once knownasthe“V of wateroutitsaquifers.Thiscompactsthelayersclayandcauses landtosink. bedrock, hasalsobeensinkingat apaceofupto3cmannuallyasitsteeming populationandfactories pumpsome2.5millioncubictons The gulf’s watershavebeenrisingbyabout25mmayear, aboutthesameasworldaverage. Butthecity, builtonclayrather than The stillexpandingcityboundaryrests about1mto1.5mabovethenearbygulf, althoughsomeareas already liebelowsealevel. be effectively evaporated bywidelyexpandingtheflood area. watershed, floodingseldomcausesreal damagetohumanlifeiftheinundationlevelisbelowknee.Inaddition,floodwaterscanalso decrease thefloodwaterlevelin thelowerwatershed.Sincefloodflowis slow, duetothegentlegradient oftheChaoPhraya River controlled bystoringwaterinthe damreservoirs intheupperwatershedofChaoPhraya River, andbyexpanding thefloodarea to Thailand hastaken advantageoftherivercharacteristics ofgentleslopetocontrol floodingoftheChaoPhraya River. Floodingis Threa Bangkok elevationmaptogetherwithapproximate locationofexistingandproposed dykes t

to

B enice oftheEast,” Bangkok wasfounded225yearsagoonaswampyfloodplainalongthe Chao Phraya River. angk (Source: NASASRTMandBMA) o k This fractured the natural system that had helped control Bangkok Province of Old picture ofakhlonginBangkok Bangkok’s annual monsoon thailand flood 2011 15 SD 45.7 billion) orld Bank has estimated THB 1,425 billion (U range of probable losses is provided) of probable range ssociation (GIA), Association Insurance General the floods, Thailand’s After industrial estates had in the businesses confirmed that large Most interruption. for floods and business coverage insurance rather insurers with foreign coverage multinational firms bought limited as were Meanwhile, Residential losses than Thai companies. that covers in Thailand have insurance than 1% of households less in Thailand were registered insurers flooding. Japanese non-life given their high exposed to the flooding than local insurers more for disruption coverage to industrial all risk and business exposure industrial estates. It was in the affected Japanese manufacturers had insurance estimated that the seven flooded industrial estates THB 600 billion (USD 19.5 billion) with major of around coverage reinsurers. being ceded to foreign part of the losses The W due to flooding, as of December 1, in economic damages and losses as seven major 2011. Most of this was to the manufacturing industry, the floods. inundated by as much 3m during industrial estates were reproduced last years flood are from losses The estimate of insured still being made in The claims payments are in the table on the left. 2012. Insured losses for 2011 Thailand flood in Insured highest or “worst case” estimate where a case” estimate where highest or “worst USD millions (Source: Company disclosure; Company disclosure; USD millions (Source: sses Lo nsured I of ummary S 16 guy carpenter various consultants. Guy Carpenterisplanningtoupdatethemodelincorporate thefloodingeventof2011andisinconsultationwithourclients The modelanalysesriskathighresolution (less than 100mgrid)andworksforalllinesofbusiness. the area includingandsurrounding DonMueangairportcouldbesubmerged. the modelbehaviourinlightoffloods2011.Itwasfoundthat gavesatisfactoryresults andhadrightlypredicted that Guy Carpenterhasbeenproviding analysisresults toclientsforfloodinThailandandalsoembarked onadetailedstudytodetermine industrial exposures. Themodelallowsforanalysisfrom 5-yearto1,000-yearreturn periods. basin enablingclientstobetter estimatetheirprobable maximumlosses atdifferent return periodsbasedontheircommercial and organization specializinginhydraulic floodmodelingsoftware, andcoversthemainfloodriskareas inThailand’s lowerChaoPhraya The GuyCarpenterhailandfloodmodelwasdevelopedin2008conjunction withDHI,anindependentresearch andconsultancy emergency reinforcement failed. example, partoftheembankmentHiT Flood wallsbroke after prolonged floodperiodinmany areas includingtheancient cityofAyutthaya, andsomeIndustrialEstates.F areas) andnon-structural measures (diversion schemesandfloodretarding areas). However, inmanycasesstructural solutionsfailed: Preparedness andprotection –intheChaoPhraya Basin,floodmitigationstrategies includebothstructural (e.g.dykes, storage flooding andhadtobereplaced. Thisescalatedtheeconomic/insured losses. Orleans) giventhehighhumidity. Also,specialisedequipmentsforsemiconductors,cameras, drivesetcwere completelyruineddueto The floodwatersstayedaround in theIndustrialparksforweeks,whichledtogrowth ofmould(likeHurricane K economic changes. OECD inthe10thtopcitiesforpopulationandassets exposedtocoastalfloodinginthe2070sbasedonbothclimatechangeandsocio- population andeconomicassets hasincreased considerably andisexpectedtodosoevenmore inthefuture. Bangkok isranked bythe Increase ofexposure –duringthepastdecades,region hasundertaken rapid industrializationandurbanization.Exposure of In the1970s,Bangkok wassinking10cmperyearbutiscurrently “only” subsiding1to3cmperyear. out includingsealevelriseintheGulfofThailand(19to29cmuntil2050) andsubsidenceamongothersduetogroundwater extraction. Hydrologic andgeomorphological changes–whileheavyrainfall mayhavecontributed,otherunderlyingfactorscanbealsopointed G W uy uy hy are are hy C arpen t he damages s damages he t er Thailand Fl Thailand er 100yr floodmapnear DonMueangairport(Source: GCThailandfloodmodel) ech IndustrialEstatelocatednorthofBangkok broke asleakageweakened itsstructure and o signi oo d d f ican Mo del t ? atrina inNew or thailand flood 2011 17 ech in T retention pond retention not less than working pumps not less Rojana in early actoryland; Bangpa-in and c) surrounding road service provide station for drainage with spare pumps with spare station for drainage a) capacity within two hours drainage b) pumps of spare capacity and efficiency ccording to Industrial Estate Authority of According than 21 2012, more Thailand, as at September in the seven flooded 684 (>80%) of the factories either fully or partially Industrial estates have of the opened. The dewatering and cleanup in mid-November Industrial estates started with F and Hi- December; Bangkadi, Navanakorn in mid-December and lastly Saha Rattananakorn late December. is work ongoing at the Industrial estates for There with the government construction of new dykes of the cost to subsidising two-thirds directly construct flood barriers at industrial estates. being built to the standards The floodwalls are set by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Thai Industry Ministry with the maintenance costs being borne by the

private industrial operators. The government private industrial operators. has instructed the Government Savings Bank to 15-year loans worth THB 15 billion at an provide of only 0.01 per cent for flood rate annual interest projects. design criteria for dykes, revised has provided IEAT 1. pond and dewatering retention provide s t r Effo very o ec R of (Source: IEAT, September 2012) IEAT, (Source: us t a St t Strong structure and resist hydro-pressure and resist structure Strong a) board) must be higher than 70 years period maximum flood level (+ 0.5m free b) c) than 2.5m not less width of road d) not disturb water way including quantity and direction urren C 7. annual inspection and report 6. plan for flood protection response monitoring system, early warning system and emergency water provide 5. maintenance periodic provide 4. way of outer water and concerned with the capacity and direction designing of dewatering system must be considered 2. dyke flood protection 3. allow 0.5m higher than 70 years period maximum flood level area, in case fill earth covers the entire 18 guy carpenter country. InJanuary2012,T Meanwhile, firmsinautomobile-related sectorshavebeenrecovering steadilyandautomakers havealsoincreased production inthe levels. Y and midsizemanufacturers ofelectronic componentsforhomeappliancesrestored mostoftheirproduction equipmenttopre-flooding have resumed operations. Butrestoration progress hasvariedaccordingBy thefirstanniversaryoffloods,small tosectorandsize. A yearafter floodsinThailandstruckabout450Japanesefirms,more than80percentoffactoriesinsevensubmerged industrialparks The actualrecovery efforts beingundertaken byeachIndustrialparkare presented below. Japanese Japanese R ec o et operations standatonlyabout40percentofcapacity, andlightsremain off athalfofthesefactories. very pr very f irms rec irms o oyota MotorCorporation announcedplanstobuilditsfourthfactoryinThailand. gress by gress Progress ofDyke constructionforIndustrialestates(Source: IEAT, Sep2012) o vering I ndus t rial park rial thailand flood 2011 19 n o i t orea rma fo n I t acific ac t n , South East Asia & South K , Asia P ondon okyo Co Hemant Nagpal Model Development Vice President, Singapore +65 6922 1948 [email protected] David Lightfoot David Head of GC Analytics - International L +44 20 7357 2164 [email protected] CEO Richard H Jones Richard CEO T +81 3 5308 3939 [email protected] Nash James Singapore +65 6922 1966 [email protected] 20 guy carpenter F T K Seoul 110-733 80 Susong-DongJongro-Gu KRIC Building,Room303 Seoul F T England L 1 T L F T Malaysia 50450 KualaLumpur 142-C JalanAmpang Wisma SelangorDredging 6th Floor, SouthBlock,ox#30 Kuala Lumpur F T Hong K W 18 HarbourRoad 26th Floor, Central Plaza Hong K F T P Beijing 100738 1 EastChangAnvenue Suite 1109,OfficeT Beijing o .R China el: +82.2.3700.1001 el: +44.20.7357.1000 el: +603.2166.0243 el: +852.2582.3500 el: +86.10.6533.4100 ondon EC3R5BU ax: +82.2.733.7216 ax: +44.20.7357.2164 ax: +603.2166.2343 ax: +852.2827.5551 ax: +86.10.8518.8407 ondon orea anchai ower PlaceW ur regi ur ong ong est o ower E3,OrientalPlaza nal presence nal F T Shanghai 200120,PRC Pudong NewArea, No. 1000LujiazuiRingoad, Suite 3011,30/F Shanghai F T Singapore 018960 Asia Square T 8 MarinaView#09-06 Singapore F T USA New Y 1166 Avenueofthemericas Head Office F T Japan Shinjuku-Ku, T 3-20-2, Nishi-Shinjuku T Tokyo F T T 4/F No.2,Sec.3,MinquanEastRoad Taipei F T Australia Sydney, NSW2000 201 Sussex Street Darling P Sydney aipei 104,T el: +81.21.6096.5866 el: +65.6922.1900 el: +1.917.937.3000 el: +81.3.5308.3910 okyo Opera CityT el: +886.2.2502.2718 el: +61.2.8864.8500 ax: +86.21.6096.5850 ax: +65.6327.3134 ax: +1.917.937.3500 ax: +81.3.3320.6131 ax: +886.2.2507.1816 ax: +61.2.8864.8555 ork, NY10036 ark T aiwan, ROC ower 1 ower 3 okyo 163-1433 , HangSengBankT ower, 33rd Floor ower, thailand flood 2011 21 LLC atent and and atent P . . S . arpenter arpenter U C ompany, ompany, undertakes no no undertakes uy uy C G LLC ercer, a global leader leader global a ercer, M arpenter on Twitter @ Twitter on arpenter arpenter & & arpenter ompany, ompany, C C C uy uy uy uy G G arpenter & & arpenter C uy uy G ith over 50 offices worldwide, worldwide, offices 50 over ith W nalytics is a registered mark with the the with mark registered a is nalytics A

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