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R Putin steps into the ring

     

Fraudulent legislative elections and growing protests have set the stage for Russia’s upcoming presidential elections. Putin will have to adjust. His choice of tactics should indicate the direction urveyors of narrative – this includes historians, in which Russia is headed. Pjournalists and political analysts, as well as novelists – love a dramatic turning point. In the narrative of ’s reign of power in Russia, one event is already being pre - munists and Liberals, emboldened by their stronger Vladimir Putin sented as a possible turning point in what many hope than expected showing, are calling for higher taxes on congratulates MMA will be the Russian leader’s undoing: On November Gazprom, which enjoys lower rates than Russia’s oth - 9ghter Fedor 20, 2011, Putin sat ringside at ’s Olympic Sports er oil producers. Also, the results of the legislative elec - Emelianenko after his Complex to watch a match between tions should make the presidential elections on March win in Moscow on November 20, 2011. heavyweights Fedor Emelianenko and American Jeff 4 more competitive. Monson. The Russian Emelianenko, long considered Even though the election results were consistent the world’s preeminent MMA fighter (a documentary with independent polls conducted in the run-up, ac - about him was called “The Baddest Man on the Plan - cusations of fraud and ballot stuffing emerged almost et”), methodically dismantled the aging American, immediately. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton breaking Monson’s leg with repeated kicks, and won by called the election “flawed,” which aroused Putin’s ire. judges’ decision. After the fight, Putin stepped into the In a four-and-a-half-hour televised phone-up inter - ring to congratulate Emelianenko, referring to him as view a couple of weeks after the elections, he lashed out “a real Russian hero.” But as Putin spoke, the Moscow in all directions with his caustic salt-of-the-earth wit. crowd whistled and jeered. Some even shouted “Putin Putin accused the Russian opposition of being paid off go away.” The video went viral throughout Russia. by unnamed states. “There are people who have Russ - When the national TV station replayed the scene it ian passports but act in the interest of foreign countries drowned the sound of jeering from the tape. and their foreign money… What can you say in this On December 4, less than three weeks after the case? You can say, ‘Come to me Bander-logs,’” he fight, elections were held for the Duma, Russia’s legis - quipped, referring to Rudyard Kipling’s “monkey men” lature. Putin’s party, , got only 49.3% of the in The Jungle Book . votes, as compared to the 64.1% the party obtained in The interview was classic Putin: biting, unapolo - 2007. Three other parties made their way into the Low - getic and, when necessary, aggressively conciliatory. For er House: the Communist Party came in second with example, when asked about videos circulating on 19.2% (up from 11.6%) and 92 seats, the Just Russia Par - YouTube of ballot stuffing that occurred during the ty gathered 13.25% (up from 7.7%) and 64 seats, and the elections, he deplored the fraud and called for video far-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), led by cameras to be installed at all polling locations. When Vladimir Zhirinovsky, got 12% (up from 8.1%) and 56 asked about the protests that took place after the elec - seats. Despite the loss of the constitutional two-thirds tions, he derided the protesters by remarking that the majority (315 seats out of 450 in 2007), United Russia symbolic white ribbons they wore pinned to their won 238 seats, meaning that it still holds the majority chests resembled unfurled condoms. necessary to pass laws alone. This situation makes the On December 24, the Russian opposition organized next Duma more open for debate and will force Unit - a protest of more than 50,000 people (government ed Russia seek out coalition partners. Already the Com - sources put attendance at 30,000, organizers at  - !#" %& +  !#" %& +  -  Featured brieng Russia I S T R S

E net while tightly controlling the that matter. Born in 1976 in what is now the eastern O T V U O E N R media with the most influence Ukrainian province of , his parents moved / A I A R / V Y E over the Russian masses – tele - over the border to what is now Russia when he was two. K Y S E L K O A

vision. This is why the reaction After the fall the , when he suddenly need - K M I N A I N E A

of the crowd when Putin ed to cross an international border to make the short X Y E T L A A T stepped into the ring to praise trip to visit his grandparents, he felt Russia’s loss of Fedor Emelianenko may have stature acutely. Over the course of his career he has constituted the turning point so turned down several million-dollar-plus exclusive con - many intellectuals – Russian tracts to fight in American organizations so that he and foreign – have been hoping could continue competing for Russia in international for. The Moscow and St. Peters - events. Rather than moving to Moscow or St. Pe - burg intelligentsia has never tersburg where he would be a celebrity, he has stayed been very supportive of Putin. close to old childhood friends in the small town of They appreciated the stability , leaving only to compete, train or go on pil - he brought them and many con - grimages. So Putin was not exaggerating when he called veniently ignored the blatant vi - him a “real Russian hero.” Emelianenko’s combina - olations of human rights, such tion of stoic calm and explosive violence, is emblem - as government condoned (if not atic of a Russian archetype. government sanctioned) assas - In such a context, the sight of Putin in the ring with sinations of journalist Anna Emelianenko posed a stark contrast to the fans present. Politkovskaya and former intel - Both are indisputably “men of power.” One of them, ligence officer Alexander Litvi - Emelianenko, had just displayed as much humility in nenko. But they never really hid victory as he had in a previous streak of three losses, stanched any criticism of his policies – especially about Vladimir Putin attends their quiet contempt for Putin’s when he apologized for having disappointed the coun - the war in Chechnya. But the internet has experienced a training session of the “Ice hockey authoritarian arrogance. try he was representing and accepted the losses as little interference. One can assume that as the masses legends of the USSR” It is the “real Russian man” “the will of God.” Meanwhile Putin had only a month get their information increasingly from internet-based club at the Megasport (nastayashchiy muzhik ) who earlier announced that he would be running for pres - sources and social networks, they will become more ex - arena in Moscow November 18, 2011. has always been the foundation ident again, and while this did not shock anybody, posed to negative views of Putin and his cohorts. of Putin’s constituency. His ap - many were offended by the arrogance with As Russia prepares for the presidential elections Demonstrators gather 120,000). The opposition – a wide range of Russian so - peal to this segment of society was consolidated at which Putin considered himself the only man capable on March 4, however, there are no opponents to pose during a protest in ciety, although primarily young media-savvy middle another crucial turning point in Putin’s career: his 2003 of guiding Russia. In the ring, as the crowd whistled any serious threat to Putin. He remains Russia’s most Moscow, December 24, 2011. The placard class – has gravitated around Alexei Navalny, a 35- showdown with and imprisonment of the politically over Putin’s congratulations, Emelianenko’s perennially popular politician, and his ratings are high by Western makes a reference to year-old Russian lawyer and blogger who has been ambitious oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. After a impassive expression betrayed a hint of discomfort standards. His approval rating rose to 57% in a poll con - Vladimir Putin’s one of Putin’s most vocal critics. Navalny was the man decade of painful shock therapy and wild capitalism for his president. Putin’s expression of power had be - ducted December 24-25 by the All-Russian Center for remarks that he mistook white ribbons who popularized the epithet “party of crooks and run amok, Putin took one of the oligarchs – most of come antithetical to Emelianenko’s, and this was finally the Study of Public Opinion, which is owned by the gov - worn by protesters for thieves” as a rally cry against United Russia. He was ar - whom had come to be loathed by average Russians being conveyed by Putin’s power base. ernment. That’s higher than the approval rating of 54% condoms. rested on December 6 for protesting illegally and re - who bore the brunt of the Soviet collapse – and made When the video went viral, it emboldened the dis - on December 17-18 and the record low of 51% on De - leased just prior to the December 24 protest, during an example of him. So when the MMA crowd full of parate opposition, united mainly in their being fed up cember 10-11. According to Russia’s biggest inde - which he addressed the crowd in Moscow’s Sakharov muzhiks jeered the popular leader who had long played with Putin’s rule. Suddenly both Putin’s opponents and pendent pollster, the Levada Center, 63% of Russians Avenue: “Hello all you Bandar-logs and internet ham - up his muzhik credentials, it meant he had lost some those who had supported him agreed that the power approved of his activities as prime minister in a poll sters: You were called Bandar-logs, but you came here support from the people (the narod ); and therefore, lost apparatus he had established over the past decade – his carried out on December 16-20. today. So where is the man who called us that?” some legitimacy as well. United Russia Party, along with the shadow rule of the One of the odder characteristics of Putin’s govern - Russia hasn’t seen such widespread protests since A closer look at the MMA incident reveals more members the security and military services known as ment (odd at least, for those who have come to equate the 1991 putsch, when Boris Yelstin stood atop a tank than just the gall of drunken rabble-rousers taking siloviki – had become too corrupt, a party of “crooks Russian authoritarianism with brutal monolithic des - in front of Russia’s parliament building and denounced potshots at their “sovereign.” First of all, this was no and thieves.” potism) is its near obsession with opinion polls. This re - the putschists in one of the most memorable photo- mere photo-op. Putin is a black belt in and a prac - This convergence of views with regard to Putin may flects both the changing times, in which information is ops of the late 20 th century. Yet few observers in the me - titioner of sambo (Russia’s homegrown self-defense only be temporary, but it will certainly force the Russ - fast and diffuse, and Putin’s personal style. Throughout dia have marveled at the fact that such protests were al - system). He is a genuine fan of the sport and had al - ian strongman to adjust his tactics. The narrative of his his public career Putin has used the strategy of a judo lowed in the first place. It was reported that the govern - ready appeared at one of Emelianenko’s fights in St. Pe - having pulled Russia out the chaos of the 1990s – practitioner. He patiently assesses opponents’ weak - ment even offered free bus transport for lost protesters. tersburg in 2007. Emelianenko, for his part, is more picked apart as it was by scavenging multinational nesses, engaging in a feeling out process with feints In general, Putin has not been overly concerned than just a sports star. Abroad, he is considered one of corporations and self-serving oligarchs – and restored here and there intended to get him to over-commit. with what is now referred to as the “iPad set” during his the most exciting and enigmatic figures in the fast- stability and a sense of greatness to Russia has been un - When he sees that his opponent’s energy is heading in tenure, first as president, then as prime minister. His growing sport. But in Russia he has been revered not dermined. The vehicle for this undermining has been one direction – and here timing is essential – he then choice of to succeed him as president only for his athletic prowess, but for his piety. As a de - the freedom of expression that has managed to flour - diverts his adversary’s force and turns it into a weapon was in part intended to appeal to them. Putin’s puta - vout Orthodox Christian, Emelianenko never has a ish on the internet. Early in his first term as president, against him. Put simply, as Emelianenko has on nu - tively iron grip has tended to give free rein to the inter - bad word to say about his opponent – or anyone for Putin gained control of the national TV networks and merous occasions, “turn your opponent’s minus into  - !#" %& +  !#" %& +  -  Featured brieng Russia S S R R

E More recently, former Prime Minister Alexei Ku - first is the internet. If Russia chooses to E T T U U E E

R drin, a close ally of Putin as well as the man who got censor the internet the way China has, it R / / V V E O B credit for steering Russia so skillfully through the shal - would be a sign of desperation on Putin’s N U E L M O E G lows of the economic crisis, appeared at the December part. Thus far, the internet has been as good N N R O E T D N 24 protest and spoke to the crowd, offering to act as me - a source of informers as any the former N A A X E

diator between the opposition and Putin. Kudrin was KGB officer could have hoped for. The sec - L A publically miffed when he learned that Putin had an - ond is the security services – especially the nounced that Medvedev would continue to serve as Interior Ministry and FSB (successor to the Prime Minister, a post rumored to have been reserved KGB) – which has been thoroughly sullied for Kudrin. Nevertheless, Russian daily Vedomosti re - both at home and abroad by the trumped- ported that Kudrin had met with Putin before attend - up incarceration and death (due to harsh ing the mass protest, at which he backed opposition prison conditions) of lawyer Sergei Mag - calls for the resignation of Russia’s senior election of - nitsky in 2009. Putin can either sacrifice a ficial and demands for a repeat of the disputed De - few bad apples as a cosmetic gesture, or cember 4 parliamentary poll. he could use this opportunity to give the in - Perhaps the most significant criticism, at least in stitutions a thorough housecleaning – albeit terms of affecting the average Russian from the at the risk of turning his real power base provinces, came from the leader of the Russian Or - against him and inviting intrigues within thodox Church, which has thus far supported Putin al - the Kremlin. A housecleaning would indi - most unconditionally. On January 7, Russia’s Christmas cate that the normally cautious judoka feels Day, Patriarch Kirill said in a TV interview that the gov - secure enough to pounce. A strong showing ernment “should adjust its course through dialogue.” in a fair election could induce such situa - Coincidentally, Putin revealed on the same day that he tion. Another element to watch is the price had been secretly baptized as a child. of oil. Russian and Soviet stability in the Even the architect of Putin’s “managed democracy,” past half century have tended to coincide Russian anti-corruption your plus, and his plus into a minus.” the ace spin doctor Vladislav Surkov, who was moved with high oil prices (and vice versa), as the economy re - Patriarch Kirill also suggested Russia was at a dan - Russia’s President blogger Alexei Navalny At this juncture, in the wake of protests and weeks from a post as strategist to Deputy Prime Minister, tried lies heavily on its abundant petroleum resources. gerous point: “If the authorities remain insensitive to Dmitry Medvedev (C, looks out of the bottom row), Patriarch window of his cell in a away from elections, the strengths of Putin’s opponents to defuse the protests the day before they took place in The narrative of Russian history has continually the expression of protests, it is a very bad sign, a sign of Moscow and All detention center in lie in their media-savviness; his weakness is embodied an interview with Izvestia . Surkov conceded that the swung back and forth from years of order and expan - of the authorities’ inability to adjust themselves,” the Russia Kirill (2nd R, Moscow, December 8, by the convergence of a growing civil activism on the Russian government had grown “deaf and stupid.” And sion – usually steered by a firm, even despotic hand at patriarch said. “If demonstrations ahead of the 1917 bottom row) and 2011. Navalny was Russian Orthodox sentenced to 15 days in part of an emboldened intelligentsia and a populace while dismissing some protesters as foreign-backed the helm – to years of chaotic disintegration. The ear - revolution had ended in the expression of peaceful Church Hierarchs pose jail for his role in an generally fed up with pervasive government corruption. scoundrels, he nevertheless admitted that the protests ly 20 th century saw Russia devastated by WWI, the Bol - protests and had not led to a bloody revolution and a for photographers opposition protest after If these two vectors build to a head – much as they did were real and natural. “The best part of our society, or shevik Revolution, and the Civil War. Then Stalin came fratricidal war, Russia would have had a more than after their meeting at parliamentary the Kremlin in Moscow elections. in the various Arab revolts of 2011 – Russia could again rather, the most productive part, is demanding respect and put the collective house in order – at the expense 300 million population and would have challenged or on February 3, 2011. fall into the turmoil and chaos that has been a recurring for itself.” It is in this demand for respect that the of millions of lives. World War II brought chaos again, maybe even surpassed the United States from the point element of its national narrative. It will be interesting to muzhiks and the iPad set find themselves overlapping. which was supplanted by decades of stability anchored of view of economic development. Back then, we failed see how Putin tries to defuse such a situation. On the Russian society is changing fast and many muzhiks by the Cold War. With perestroika and the collapse of to preserve the balance and wisdom. We destroyed eve of the Duma elections, many opposition websites also spend a lot of time surfing the net. Vkontakte, the the Soviet Union, chaos returned. our country. Why did it happen? Because people’s were blocked. But the blocks were quickly lifted. More - Russian-speaking world’s equivalent of Facebook, has Putin, for better or worse, still represents a return protests, often fair, are very skillfully exploited by pow - over, a number of moves and critical comments from more than 140 million users. Putin, whose popularity to stability. So whatever the reasons for protests in er-seeking political forces.” among Putin’s supporters and friends have created a initially stemmed from the perception that his deci - Russia, few are naïve enough to think that replacing How Putin deals with the first significant threat to sense of perplexity, the kind that usually kindles rumors sions were guided by a sincere concern for the well-be - Putin would resulting in smooth sailing toward mod - his mandate will determine whether his legacy will of shadowy Kremlin intrigues. ing of Russians, must dispel the perception that his gov - ern civil society as found Western Europe or the US. The have been to restore Russia’s self-perception of great - First, Russian metals tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov an - ernment is merely perpetuating the endemic corrup - history and geography of Russia are too different, the ness (as he has arguably already done) or whether he nounced he would run for president. He has claimed tion and cronyism that has historically plagued Russ - extremes too extreme. will have actually restored Russia to greatness. The dif - the era of “managed democracy” embodied by Putin is ian governments. If he cannot succeed, and opposition Even former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, ference is enormous and will have implications for dead. Prokhorov briefly led the liberal Right Cause – builds, then he may eventually be obliged to revert to leader of the Russian Popular Democratic Union and Russians and non-Russians alike. more an umbrella organization than a party, created by brute force in order to maintain power. co-chairman of the People’s Freedom Party, begrudg - Putin to unite Russia’s labor unions, prominent social Given his popularity, one would assume that Putin ingly admits: “Unfortunately, it is already evident that organizations, economic lobbying sectors, big busi - does not need to rig the March election – in fact, it after March 2012 the situation in the country will still ness, individuals and political parties – but then backed would be counterproductive, even stupid. Any irregu - be under the control of Putin and his circle. I think the out because of differences of opinions. In his dial-up TV larities would indicate that his grip on the siloviki is not future promises to be a tough one, especially for in - interview, Putin spoke glowingly of Prokhorov, which as firm as those who accuse him of Stalinist tendencies dependent people who want to live in a free country immediately caused many to suspect that the billion - would imagine. In order to get a sense of which direc - and build their future independently. There will be a aire was put up to it by Putin himself in order to divide tion Russia is headed, especially if the protests continue negative trend: people will begin to leave in massive the liberal opposition. to swell, several elements need to be watched: The numbers.” *%$ )&( ' is the author of numerous essays in Slavic Studies.  - !#" %& +  !#" %& +  -