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Pwc Real Estate Investor Survey pwc.de/investor-survey pwc.ch/realestate PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Cap rates and letting assumptions for all relevant German and Germany and Swiss real estate submarkets Switzerland Volume 7, H2 2017 March 2018 Spotlight PropTech – Buzz-word or Game Changer? 2 PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Cap rates and letting assumptions for all relevant German and Swiss real estate submarkets Published by PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft March 2018, 62 pages, 46 figures All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced in any form, or saved and edited in any digital medium without the express permission of the editor. This publication is intended to be a resource for our clients and the information therein was correct to the best of the authors’ knowledge at the time of publication. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult the sources or contacts listed here. The opinions reflected are those of the authors. The graphics may contain rounding differences. PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft adheres to the PwC-Ethikgrundsätze/PwC Code of Conduct (available in German at www.pwc.de/de/ethikcode) and to the Ten Principles of the UN Global Compact (available in German and English at www.globalcompact.de). © March 2018 PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm of PwCIL is a separate and independent legal entity. Contents Contents Introduction .................................4 Spotlight .............................................8 PropTech – Buzz-word or Game Changer? Germany – Office ................ 14 Germany – Retail ................. 16 High Street Retail .............................16 Non-High Street Retail .....................22 Germany – Logistics .............24 Germany – NOI Analysis ......28 Switzerland – Residential ..............32 Switzerland – Office ......................36 Switzerland – Retail ......................40 High Street Retail ......................................... 40 Non-High Street Retail ................................. 43 Switzerland – NOI Analysis ............44 Overview of the results ........46 Approach and Definitions .......54 PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Germany 3 Introduction Introduction This time we took a first step towards creating more transparency not only for the German but also for the European market. In this issue we teamed up with our Swiss colleagues and retrieved data on submarkets in Switzerland. For the Swiss part we also provide data on office and retail real estate. In addition, the Swiss part focuses on residential real estate. As usual, we focus on the risk-return indicator “all-risk-yields” (ARYs), representing the relationship between stabilised net operating income (NOI) and net purchase price. Please see Chapter 6 for our approach and definitions. We gathered our data by interviewing market participants. For an overview of the participants see section 5. In this volume’s spotlight we focused on PropTech and interviewed our participants, i.e. acquisition personnel and investor researchers, on their practical experience with PropTech applications and where they see the highest potential for them changing the 1industry. In our spotlight section 2 you can find out what role PropTechs are playing in the industry. Fig. 1 Interest rate expectation for the German market 5% 5% Germany 25% 15% 35% 60% 75% 80% Increasing Stable Short term Medium term Long term Decreasing Fig. 2 Interest rate expectation for the Swiss market 5% 9% 23% Switzerland 27% 72% 73% 91% Increasing Stable Short term Medium term Long term Decreasing 4 PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Introduction Will yields increase Will rental growth Does this Germany corresponding to the interest compensate increasing differentiate between rate development? cap rates? Top7 and B cities? ▲ ▲ 80% ▲ ▲ 70% ▲ ▲ 35% Yes No Will yields increase in Will rental growth Does this differ line with interest rate compensate increasing between top 9 cities Switzerland development? cap rates? and regions? ▲ ▲ ▲ 83% ▲ 81% ▲ ▲ 35% Yes No For the German market investors are less aligned in which direction interest rates will be moving in the future. Still a majority with 60% (compared to 92% 6 months ago) believe that interest rates will remain stable within the next 12 months, while 35% (8% 6 months ago ) of respondents expecting interest rates to rise. In the medium term (up to 5 years) as well as in the long term, the vast majority of all respondents (75% and 80% respectively) expect interest rate to rise. In terms of the hypothesis that real estate yields will follow potential interest rate growth the agreement ratio of investors did not change and is very close to the responses 6 months ago with 80% now compared to 77%. Those who do not see yields following the interest rate development argue that there is still too much liquidity in the markets that will continuously be allocated to real estate and thus prevent real estate yields to grow. Among Swiss respondents, there is a widespread consensus concerning interest rate projections. 73% expect them to remain stable over the next 12 months, while 23% expect a short-term increase. For the medium term, about three quarters voice expectations of increasing rates, while the remaining respondents see them remaining stable over the 3-5 years. The latter fraction shrinks to only 9% for the long term, as there is widespread consensus (91%) on an interest rate increase over the coming decade. Real estate yields will follow the upward course of interest rates – at least this is what four out of five Swiss respondents assume. Even though rental growth is expected to be relatively flat, one third of Swiss respondents expect it to compensate for increasing cap rates. However, two thirds of Swiss respondents are concerned about the real estate values in a changing interest rate environment, because they do not believe that an increase of market rents will entirely compensate for the increase in yields. PwC Real Estate Investor Survey 5 Introduction Germany Berlin and Munich have both reached record low yield levels with a minimum ARY of only 3.0%. The strongest yield compression amongst Top 7 Cities was observed in Düsseldorf both for its core and average properties (defined in Chapter 7) with -20bps and -27 bps, respectively. Berlin remains leader in terms of an expected annual rental growth rate of 3.6%. For high street retail real estate, Munich is again ahead of the other Top 7 Cities with a level of 2.8% for the prime properties (minimum ARY) being 10bps lower than 6 months ago. On average high street retail in the Top 7 Cities shows almost no yield compression in the prime sector (minimum ARY). Weaker properties Office don’t show any further yield compression as average and maximum ARYs almost entirely went up across all our observed 28 submarkets. In the logistics sector, we observed a strong compression in Stuttgart (–40bps). With a yield of now 4.5%, Stuttgart and Munich jointly mark the most expensive logistics markets. Retail Logistics 6 PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Introduction Switzerland Zurich and Geneva have the lowest yields among the Top-9 Swiss cities. However, investors show sizeable disparity in their yield assessment. St. Gallen and Lugano show the highest yields, around 50 bps above Zurich and Geneva. Regional average ARYs find themselves between 20 to 50 bps above their urban centers. As for residential, Zurich and Geneva top the list also for office spaces, with minimum ARYs of 2.5% and a 3.3% average. At the bottom, we see again Lugano and St. Gallen with 3.7% and 4.0% Residential average ARY, respectively. Spreads between Regions and Top 9 Cities are significantly wider for the office category than residential, ranging between 80 and 120 bps on the average ARY. Zurich again has the lowest yields in the retail category, with a minimum of 2.5% and a 3.0% average. This time, however, there's a greater gap separating Zurich from Geneva (+25bps) a nd Basel (+60bps). The Region of Office Zurich – exhibiting the lowest yields among Regions for residential and office – only ranks third behind the Lake Geneva Region and Central Switzerland in retail. Retail PwC Real Estate Investor Survey 7 Spotlight Spotlight PropTech – Buzz-word or Game Changer? PropTech is currently a widely spread buzz-word in the real estate industry worldwide. There are numerous conferences, panel discussions, workshops and newsletters which focus on this topic. But have PropTechs hit the industry and settled their role as a game changer yet? In this volume’s spotlight we asked our participants, i.e. acquisition personnel and investor researchers, on their practical experience with PropTech applications and where they see the highest potential for them changing the 2 industry. 8 PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Spotlight We consider “PropTechs” as relatively young companies focusing on innovative technology solutions that disrupt processes within the real estate lifecycle. Underlying technologies amongst others are artificial intelligence (AI), 3D augmented and virtual reality (3D, AR, VR), Big Data & Internet of Things (IOT), mobile as well as cloud solutions and geo and building information. An overview of PropTechs in the GSA region (Germany, Switzerland, Austria) classified by fields of
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