A J Allsop Determining the Extent to Which Simulation Can Be Used to Train Raf Pilots to Fly and Fight the Eurofighter Typhoon C
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CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY A J ALLSOP DETERMINING THE EXTENT TO WHICH SIMULATION CAN BE USED TO TRAIN RAF PILOTS TO FLY AND FIGHT THE EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON CRANFIELD DEFENCE AND SECURITY PHD THESIS Academic Year: 2016-17 Supervisors: K Knowles, A J Saddington March 2017 CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY CRANFIELD DEFENCE AND SECURITY PHD THESIS Academic Year 2016-2017 A J ALLSOP Determining the Extent To Which Simulation Can Be Used to Train RAF Pilots to Fly and Fight the Eurofighter Typhoon Supervisors: K Knowles, A J Saddington March 2017 © Crown Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright owner. ABSTRACT This research examines the extent to which simulation can be used to train pilots of the Royal Air Force to fly and fight the Eurofighter Typhoon, and is the culmination of a series of trials over a period of 4 years. The approach was threefold, firstly examining the performance of students trained entirely on the Operational Conversion Unit’s full syllabus in the simulator and then tested against their peers on each of the four phases in live flight, secondly investigating the cultural acceptance levels of the present Typhoon pilots and lastly using lessons learnt to generate and test a syllabus to train Typhoon pilots to Multi Role Combat Ready in 40% of the present time. It was found that increasing the proportion of synthetics from the lowest Live Synthetic Balance (LSB) of 75:25 used on the front-line meets a cultural and resource barrier at 50:50. This did not represent the maximum LSB achievable however with the heavily synthetic Multi-Role Syllabus reaching an LSB of 21:79 with successful completion of the end of course test. Cultural acceptance of the simulator had correlations with the squadron a pilot was assigned to, the manner in which the simulators were programmed for use and the experience level of the pilot. No evidence was found within the sample to suggest age had an effect. Recommendations on minimum proportions of live and synthetic training was mapped for each of the required tasks and comparisons of these were made across complexity levels. Resource savings found by the generating and testing a Multi Role Combat Ready syllabus that recognised and incorporated all the strengths, weaknesses and lessons identified in the previous trials generated a saving of approximately 9 months and 100 Typhoon live flying hours per student, equivalent to approximately 1300 man maintenance hours that could be reinvested into personnel in the form of leave, adventurous training or development. i ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thank you to Nicola, Ethan and Isobel Allsop for their unwavering support through the most difficult of times. Thanks to Al Seymour who dared to take a risk and in doing so differentiated himself from his peers. Dedicated to the fighting edge of the Royal Air Force, the men and women who sacrifice more than the public will ever know. iii iv CONTENTS ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii CONTENTS v LIST OF FIGURES xi LIST OF TABLES xv GLOSSARY xvii NOTATION xxiii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 2 1.2 Demonstration of the Need 3 1.3 Birth of a requirement 5 1.4 Post Strategic Defence and Security Review (Oct 10) 9 1.5 The Fast-Jet Synthetic Picture 2011 9 1.6 Risk 10 1.7 Research Question 10 1.8 Dissecting the Research Question 13 1.8.1 SQ1 - What limits Synthetic Training in the Instructional Environment? 14 1.8.2 SQ2 - What is the cultural limit of Synthetic Use? 14 1.8.3 SQ3 - Do Resurces Limit the Employment of Synthetics? 15 1.9 Overview of the Thesis 16 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE AND KNOWLEDGE REVIEW ............................ 19 2.1 Introduction 19 2.2 The RAF 19 2.2.1 Understanding the Picture – Strategic Level 19 2.2.2 Understanding the Picture – Tactical Level 24 2.3 Other Air Forces – Present-Day Comparable LSB 26 2.4 The Civilian View 28 2.5 Experimentation 30 2.5.1 Civilian 30 2.5.2 Military 32 2.5.3 Sample Sizes 36 2.5.4 Metrics 40 2.6 Devolved Theories and Practitioner Use 43 2.6.1 Limitations of Simulation 48 2.7 Literature Review Summary 50 v CHAPTER 3. TRIAL PANDORAS BUZZARD ................................................. 53 3.1 Overview 53 3.2 Key Literature Review Direction 53 3.3 Context 54 3.4 Aims 56 3.5 Determining The Relevant Factors 58 3.5.1 Binary Logistic Regression: Rank versus 3 Phase Sum 59 3.5.2 Regression Analysis: 3-Phase Sum versus Total Flying Hours And Present Age 61 3.6 3 Tests to Measure Success 63 3.7 Experimental Design 65 3.7.1 Experimental Subjects - Trial sample 65 3.8 Equipment 67 3.8.1 Devices 67 3.8.2 Pilot clothing 69 3.8.3 Software 70 3.8.4 Extant Limitations 72 3.9 Method 73 3.9.1 Introduction 73 3.9.2 Preparation 73 3.9.3 Instructional Staff 74 3.9.4 Live Test Sortie 75 3.9.5 Safety 76 3.9.6 Measurements, Metrics and Failures 77 3.9.7 Failures 78 3.9.8 Process 78 3.10 Results And Discussion 85 3.10.1 Conversion Phase 85 3.10.2 Testing The Conversion Phase 86 3.10.3 Conversion Phase Results 87 3.10.4 Conversion Phase Summary 91 3.11 COMBAT Phase 92 3.11.1 Combat Results 93 3.11.2 Combat Analysis 98 3.11.3 Combat Phase Summary 101 3.12 COUNTER AIR Phase 102 3.12.1 Counter Air Results 104 3.12.2 Counter Air Summary 107 vi 3.13 QRA Phase 108 3.13.1 QRA Low Slow Phase Results 109 3.13.2 QRA Low Slow Phase Summary 112 3.14 Effect on Resources 112 3.15 Conclusions 115 3.15.1 Objective 1- Assess the suitability of ASTA to train each phase of the OCU syllabus 116 3.15.2 Objective 2 – Identify any variables that could affect the transfer of training 117 3.15.3 Objective 3 – Identify any technical limits prohibiting the employment of highly-synthetic syllabus to train students 118 3.15.4 Objective 4 - Determine the level of training transfer between the ASTA and the live environment 119 3.15.5 Objective 5 - Generation of a risk register to determine the risks during the first solo flight, with particular reference to risk to life 119 3.15.6 Capacity and Structure 119 CHAPTER 4. TRIAL PANDORAS DIAMOND ............................................... 121 4.1 Overview 121 4.2 Key Literature Review Direction 121 4.3 Aim 122 4.4 Objectives 123 4.5 Design 124 4.5.1 Questionnaires 124 4.6 Sortie Complexity 126 4.7 Sortie Design and Consistency 127 4.8 Equipment Under Test 127 4.9 Trial Subjects 128 4.10 Trial Constraints 128 4.11 Trial results 128 4.12 Entry Questionnaire 129 4.13 Perception Versus Individual Opinion 130 4.14 The Effect Of Qualification 135 4.14.1 Qualification vs ‘Cultural Lean’ at RAF Coningsby 136 4.14.2 Qualification Vs ‘Near Future’ At RAF Coningsby 137 4.14.3 The Qualification Variable At RAF Lossiemouth 139 4.14.4 Summary 139 4.15 The Effect of the Squadron 139 4.15.1 Summary 142 4.16 Regression of The Themes 143 vii 4.16.1 Age and ‘Cultural Lean’ At RAF Coningsby 144 4.16.2 Total Typhoon Hours and ‘Cultural Lean’ at RAF Coningsby 146 4.16.3 Total Flying Hours and ‘Cultural Lean’ At RAF Coningsby 149 4.16.4 Number of 2-Ship Simulators Flown And ‘Cultural Lean’ at RAF Coningsby 152 4.16.5 Number of 4-Ship Simulators and ‘Cultural Lean’ at RAF Coningsby 155 4.16.6 RAF Coningsby and the Theme of ‘Near Future’ 158 4.16.7 RAF Lossiemouth and the Theme of ‘Cultural Lean’ 159 4.16.8 Multiple Regression 160 4.16.9 Summary of Work on Themes 160 4.17 Determining the Live: Synthetic Balances 161 4.17.1 Finding The Live Option Synthetic Blend for Level 1 162 4.17.2 LOS Blend for Levels 2 and 3 169 Proportions. 170 4.17.3 The Effect of Concurrency 171 4.17.4 Summary 176 4.17.5 Complexity 177 4.17.6 Summary 179 4.17.7 The effect Of Complexity On The Major Factors 179 4.18 Analysis 181 4.19 Conclusions 182 4.20 Trial PANDORA’S DIAMOND Summary 186 CHAPTER 5. PROJECT JENX ...................................................................... 187 5.1 Overview 187 5.2 Key Literature Review Direction 187 5.3 Aims 188 5.4 Issue 188 5.5 Project Method 190 5.6 Results 192 5.7 Analysis 193 5.7.1 Live Synthetic Balance 193 5.7.2 Savings 194 5.7.3 Simulation Assets Required 194 5.7.4 Student Feedback and Qualitative Assessment 195 5.8 Conclusions 196 CHAPTER 6. DISCUSSION ........................................................................... 199 viii CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................... 203 7.1 Achievements 203 7.2 Further Work 204 7.3 Summary 205 REFERENCES 207 APPENDIX A SRF SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ......................................... A-1 APPENDIX B DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR THE POPULATION .......... B-1 B.1 Descriptive Statistics: IRT Std Cse B-1 B.2 Descriptive Statistics: BFM Std Cse B-1 B.3 Descriptive Statistics: CA Std Cse B-2 B.4 Descriptive Statistics: Low Slow Std Cse B-3 B.5 Descriptive Statistics: 3 Phase Sum B-3 B.6 Descriptive Statistics: 4 Phase Sum B-4 APPENDIX C RISK REGISTER EXAMPLE .................................................. C-1 APPENDIX D BRIEFING SLIDE EXAMPLE.................................................. D-1 APPENDIX E APPROVALS AND REQUESTS .............................................