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GCC Aviation Sector April 2016

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GCC Aviation Sector April 2016 GCC Aviation Sector April 2016 Low cost carriers model to thrive in GCC Company Recommendation Yields to remain under pressure in 2016/17 and then gradually improve Passenger growth to continue as low price will continue to attract customers Air Arabia BUY Margins to improve in 2016/17 and then gradually taper off Jazeera Airways ACCUMULATE We are initiating coverage on the aviation sector in the GCC region with a BUY recommendation on Air Arabia at AED1.62/share (upside of 31.8%) and with an ACCUMULATE recommendation on Jazeera Airways at KWD0.989/share (upside of 11.2%). Our recommendation for companies are based on various factors such as the cost structure, expansion plans, geographical presence within a country/countries, market share in the country/countries it operates in, vertical and horizontal integrations and operational efficiencies. Air Arabia - TP AED: 1.62; Upside 31.8% Air Arabia is Middle East and North Africa’s first and largest LCC. It flies to 116 destinations across the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and Europe. It operates from five different hubs strategically located across the Middle East. Air Arabia fleet size is expected to rise to 47 by 2017 meaning they would be adding 6 more aircrafts in 2016/17. In 2015, the airline carried over 7.6mn passengers and we expect this number to grow to 7.8mn in 2016 and to 8.6mn by 2019. We expect revenue and net income to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% and 5.55 respectively during 2015-20. It is currently trading at an attractive 2016 PE and P/Bv multiple of 9.9x and 1.1x respectively. Along with that Company offers handsome dividend yield of 7.3% for 2016. Apart from listed on DFM, the stock is part of FTSE Nasdaq Dubai, FTSE Emerging Markets Index and Bloomberg GCC 200 index. Jazeera Airways - TP KWD: 0.989; Upside 11.2% Jazeera Airways is a Kuwaiti airline with its head office on the grounds of Kuwait International Airport. It flies to 20 destination across MENA and operates through a leased fleet size of 7 aircrafts. In late 2014, Jazeera Airways Group, winded up its operations at its Sahaab Aircraft Leasing subsidiary in order to fully focus on its airline business. Sahaab's fleet of fifteen A320-200s were sold off to a consortium for KWD149mn (USD507mn). In 2015, the airline carried over 1.2mn passengers and we expect this number to grow to 1.27mn by 2019. We expect revenue and net income to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% and 1.2% respectively during 2015-20. It is currently trading at a 2016 PE and P/Bv multiple of 11.6x and 4.9x respectively. Along with that Company offers handsome dividend yield of 5.9% for 2016. Apart from Kuwait stock exchange, the stock is part of Bloomberg GCC 200 index and is a constituent of Dow Jones Islamic market world emerging T&L index. OABInvest - Aviation Universe Company CMP Stock Perf. PE 2016e P/Bv 2016e Target Upside Recommendation Price (LC) (LC) 1m 3m Hettish Karmani Air Arabia 1.23 -6.8% -10.2% 9.9 1.1 1.62 31.8% BUY Head of Research Jazeera Airways 0.890 7.2% -1.1% 11.6 4.9 0.989 11.2% ACCUMULATE [email protected] Source: Bloomberg & OAB Invest Tel: 00968 – 24754316 Valuation Methodology For arriving at the fair value of companies, we have used a blend of two valuation methods: Cash flow approach represented by the Discounted Cash Flow Method. Relative valuation approach based on 2016e P/E multiple of the sector. Discounted Cash flow Method – DCF The DCF is based on a 5-year forecast of free cash flows to the firm (2016-20). The free cash flows for the forecasted period and the terminal value are then discounted back at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to arrive at the total net present value (NPV) of the company. Subsequently cash and non-operating assets are added while long-term debt is subtracted to arrive at the equity value. Cost of Equity is derived using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Relative Valuation Method We have used relative valuation based on the GCC Aviation sector 2016e P/E multiple. GCC Aviation sector 2016e P/E multiple is based on weighted average 2016e P/E multiple of companies under our coverage. This sector P/E is then multiplied with the forecasted 2016 EPS of the company to arrive at the fair value. Valuation AIR ARABIA JAZEERA (AED 000) (KWD 000) DCF PV of Cash Flows & Terminal Value Year.1 485,900 9,952 Year.2 460,226 9,882 Year.3 462,094 9,596 Year.4 476,850 9,363 Terminal 7,022,606 159,046 Assumption Growth Rate 3.0% 3.0% Risk Free Rate 1.9% 1.9% Risk Premium (Market Risk, Company Risk, Country Risk) 9.0% 9.0% Beta (5yr Monthly) 0.76 0.77 WACC 8.2% 8.9% Equity Value 7,929,857 206,986 Outstanding Shares (000) 4,666,700 200,000 DCF Value per Share 1.70 1.035 Relative Valuation Peer Group Multiple 10.5 10.5 Price based on PE multiple 1.31 0.807 Fair Value - DCF (80%) 1.70 1.035 Fair Value - RV (20%) 1.31 0.807 Fair Value 1.62 0.989 Current Market Price 1.23 0.890 Upside / (Downside) 31.8% 11.2% Recommendation BUY ACCUMULATE 2 Sensitivity Analysis of the DCF Value AIR ARABIA Growth Rate (%) Cost of Equity (%) 1.699 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.699 7.0% 8.0% 8.8% 10.0% 11.0% 6.2% 1.83 2.23 2.88 4.11 7.33 4.0% 2.73 2.17 1.86 1.51 1.30 7.2% 1.50 1.76 2.15 2.78 3.96 5.0% 2.57 2.06 1.78 1.45 1.26 8.2% 1.26 1.45 1.70 2.07 2.68 6.0% 2.42 1.96 1.70 1.40 1.22 WACC (%) WACC 9.2% 1.08 1.22 1.39 1.64 2.00 7.0% 2.29 1.87 1.63 1.35 1.18 10.2% 0.94 1.04 1.17 1.34 1.58 Cost of Debt (%) 8.0% 2.17 1.79 1.56 1.30 1.14 JAZEERA AIRWAYS Growth Rate (%) Cost of Equity (%) 1.035 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.035 7.0% 8.0% 8.9% 10.0% 11.0% 6.9% 1.104 1.289 1.571 2.050 3.046 -1.0% 1.514 1.212 1.035 0.866 0.758 7.9% 0.942 1.069 1.248 1.520 1.983 0.0% 1.514 1.212 1.035 0.866 0.758 8.9% 0.821 0.912 1.035 1.208 1.471 1.0% 1.514 1.212 1.035 0.866 0.758 WACC (%) WACC 9.9% 0.728 0.796 0.884 1.003 1.170 2.0% 1.514 1.212 1.035 0.866 0.758 10.9% 0.653 0.706 0.772 0.857 0.972 Cost of Debt (%) 3.0% 1.514 1.212 1.035 0.866 0.758 PEER Group Comparison Name Market Cap ROA, % ROE, % Dividend P/Bv 2016e PE 2016e USD mn Yield, % AIR ARABIA PJSC 1,562 5.0% 11.6% 7.3% 1.1 9.9 JAZEERA AIRWAYS 591 28.3% 42.1% 5.9% 4.9 11.6 RYANAIR HLDGS 20,793 14.0% 37.8% N/A 4.6 15.1 AIR NEW ZEALAND 2,227 7.9% 27.6% 9.5% 1.5 5.1 AIRBUS GROUP SE 52,369 2.7% 41.4% 2.2% 7.7 17.0 BOEING CO/THE 83,713 5.5% 69.0% 3.4% 13.5 15.1 DELTA AIR LI 38,404 8.4% 46.0% 1.1% 3.5 7.3 UNITED CONTINENT 21,504 19.0% 129.2% N/A 2.4 6.7 AMERICAN AIRLINE 24,953 16.6% 198.8% 1.0% 4.6 6.6 JETBLUE AIRWAYS 6,853 8.2% 23.6% N/A 2.1 8.6 QANTAS AIRWAYS 6,462 5.9% 34.7% N/A 2.6 6.5 SINGAPORE AIRLIN 9,883 2.6% 5.0% 2.4% 1.0 19.1 AIR CHINA LTD-H 12,293 3.3% 12.3% 2.3% 1.0 5.6 CHINA EAST AIR-H 10,597 2.5% 13.5% N/A 1.3 5.7 AIR CHINA LTD-A 12,294 3.3% 12.3% 1.6% 1.5 9.6 Source: Bloomberg & OAB Invest 3 Fact Sheet / Comparison Chart / Operating Facts Destinations Hubs 120.0 5.0 96.0 4.0 72.0 3.0 48.0 2.0 24.0 1.0 - - AIR ARABIA JAZEERA AIR ARABIA JAZEERA Aircrafts Yield (USD) 45.0 160.0 36.0 140.0 27.0 120.0 18.0 100.0 9.0 80.0 - 60.0 AIR ARABIA JAZEERA AIR ARABIA JAZEERA Load Factor Passenger Flown (mn) 80.0% 8.0 77.0% 6.4 74.0% 4.8 71.0% 3.2 68.0% 1.6 65.0% - AIR ARABIA JAZEERA AIR ARABIA JAZEERA Net Margin Gross Margin 30.0% 35.0% 24.0% 28.0% 18.0% 21.0% 12.0% 14.0% 6.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% AIR ARABIA JAZEERA AIR ARABIA JAZEERA Source: Company Filings & IR Presentation 4 Aviation Sector Global Aviation Industry Global aviation industry revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.2% to USD758bn in 2014 from USD379bn in 2004.
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