Självständigt Arbete (15 Hp)
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Gert Soomsalu 2020-10-01 HOP1 Självständigt arbete (15 hp) Författare Program/Kurs Gert Soomsalu HOP1 Handledare Antal ord: 13852 Michael Jonsson Beteckning Kurskod Självständigt arbete magisteruppsats, krigsvetenskap 2O015 ESTONIA IN BALTIC NAVAL COOPERATION- BUSINESS AS USUAL? Sammanfattning: Since the re-establishment of Estonian navy, Baltic naval cooperation has played various roles for Estonian navy. During different periods, Estonian involvement in cooperation has been fluctuating and in 2014, Estonia decided to withdraw from afloat cooperation, yet continuing with other forms of it. In 2018, Estonia proposed new concept and goals for Baltic Naval cooperation. To better un- derstand the current state of affairs, main motives behind Estonia’s acting in cooperation from es- tablishing the cooperation until today are studied and presented. The main aim of this thesis is high- light which factors are favourable to carry out the ideas presented in the concept for future cooper- ation, Baltic Naval Vision 2030+. Results show that there are factors indicating favourable conditions to carry out the plans, neverthe- less there are also factors less favourable. Most salient favouring factor is strategic culture which is similar in Baltic countries, most salient hindering factor is lack of top-down political support. Nyckelord: Cooperation, Baltic navies, Baltic defence, Estonian navy. Sida 1 av 33 Gert Soomsalu 2020-10-01 HOP1 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 FRAMING THE PROBLEM ......................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 PURPOSE .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 Research question .................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2.2 Research overview................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 LIMITATIONS .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 DEFINITIONS .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 DISPOSITION .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 2. THEORY .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 TOMAS VALASEK’S APPROACH .............................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1 Criteria for success ............................................................................................................................................... 8 3. METHOD ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1.1 The case ...................................................................................................................................................................11 3.1.2 Interviews ................................................................................................................................................................11 4. BALTIC NAVAL COOPERATION, BACKGROUND ......................................................................... 12 4.1 RECENT DEBATE ..................................................................................................................................................... 12 4.2 FIRST PERIOD 1998 - 2004, FROM JOINING BALTRON MOU TO JOINING NATO ............................... 13 4.3 SECOND PERIOD, FROM JOINING NATO TO DENOUNCEMENT OF BALTRON MOU ........................... 14 4.4 THIRD PERIOD: 2014 UNTIL PRESENT ............................................................................................................... 15 4.5 CONCEPT FOR THE FUTURE: BALTIC NAVAL VISION 2030+ ....................................................................... 16 4.6 SUMMARY OF COOPERATION ............................................................................................................................... 16 5. FACTORS ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 5.1 SIMILARITY OF STRATEGIC CULTURES: ............................................................................................................. 17 5.2 TRUST AND SOLIDARITY ........................................................................................................................................ 18 5.3 COMPARISON OF FORCES ..................................................................................................................................... 19 5.4 DEFENCE INDUSTRIES ........................................................................................................................................... 20 5.5 CLARITY OF INTENTIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 21 5.6 CORRUPTION ........................................................................................................................................................... 21 5.7 SERIOUSNESS OF INTENT ...................................................................................................................................... 21 5.8 SOVEREIGNTY AND AUTONOMY ........................................................................................................................... 22 5.9 ALIGNMENT OF DEFENCE PLANNING ................................................................................................................. 22 5.10 INTEROPERABILITY .............................................................................................................................................. 22 5.11 BOTTOM-UP AND TOP-DOWN ............................................................................................................................ 23 6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................ 24 6.1 METHODOLOGICAL DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................ 25 6.1.1 Internal validity ....................................................................................................................................................26 6.1.2 Reliability and generalizability ......................................................................................................................26 6.1.3 Source criticism ....................................................................................................................................................26 6.2 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................................................................. 27 6.3 DISCUSSION ABOUT IMPORTANCE OF BALTIC NAVAL COOPERATION ........................................................ 27 6.4 PROPOSAL FOR FUTURE RESEARCH ................................................................................................................... 29 7. REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 29 7.1 INTERVIEWS: ............................................................................................................................................................ 33 Sida 2 av 33 Gert Soomsalu 2020-10-01 HOP1 1. Introduction After the Baltic states regained their independence in 1991, military cooperation between the countries started. Following the re-establishment of the navies in three Baltic countries (3B), cooperation has been active and has taken various forms throughout the years. In 1995, the first trilateral naval exercise, called ‘Amber Sea’, took place and the idea for a common MCM (Mine Countermeasures) unit was conceived (Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2002). For Esto- nia and also for Latvia and Lithuania, in the naval domain and alongside other cooperative projects, the nucleus for practical cooperation was the BALTRON framework (Baltic Naval Squadron), established in 1998. One of the main objectives of BALTRON was to fulfil the requirements of the NATO Partner- ship Goals (Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2002) and it focused on squadron level MCM training. Despite 3B achieving NATO membership in 2004, that focus remained unchanged. After joining the NATO in 2004, and starting in 2005, Estonia has been a regular contributor to SNMCMG1 (Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group One), and has also been in- volved in BALTRON cooperation with two fully manned and equipped MCMV-s (Mine Coun- termeasures Vessel)