American Political Science Review

American Political Science

Review

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Downloaded from from Downloaded MAY 2021 | VOLUME 115 | NUMBER 2 LEAD EDITORS David Broockman Alan Jacobs Mark Pickup Clarissa Hayward UC Berkeley, USA University of British Columbia, Canada Simon Fraser University, Canada Washington University in St. Louis, Nadia E. Brown Amaney Jamal Melanye Price USA Purdue University, USA Princeton University, USA Prairie View A&M University, USA Kelly M. Kadera Renee Buhr Juliet Johnson Karthick Ramakrishnan University of Iowa, USA University of St. Thomas, USA McGill University, Canada UC Riverside, USA Pradeep Chhibber Michael Jones-Correa Gina Yannitell Reinhardt EDITORS UC Berkeley, USA University of Pennsylvania, USA University of Essex, UK Sharon Wright Austin Cathy Cohen Kimuli Kasara Andrew Reynolds University of Florida, USA University of Chicago, USA Columbia University, USA University of North Carolina, USA Michelle L. Dion Katherine Cramer Helen M. Kinsella Emily Hencken Ritter McMaster University, Canada University of Wisconsin–Madison, University of Minnesota, USA Vanderbilt University, USA Celeste Montoya USA Brett Ashley Leeds Molly Roberts University of Colorado, Boulder, USA Paisley Currah Rice University, USA UC San Diego, USA Julie Novkov CUNY, USA Ines Levin Melvin Rogers University at Albany, SUNY, USA Christian Davenport UC Irvine, USA Brown University, USA Valeria Sinclair-Chapman University of Michigan, USA Jacob T. Levy Nita Rudra Purdue University, USA Alexandre Debs McGill University, Canada Georgetown University, USA Dara Strolovitch Yale University, USA Pei-te Lien Burcu Savun Princeton University, USA Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt UC Santa Barbara, USA University of Pittsburgh, USA

Alli Mari Tripp University of North Texas, USA Sheryl Lightfoot Ken Scheve https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000216

. . University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA Scott Desposato University of British Columbia, Canada Stanford University, USA Denise M. Walsh UC San Diego, USA Jinee Lokaneeta Melissa Schwartzberg University of Virginia, USA Shirin Deylami Drew University, USA New York University, USA S. Laurel Weldon Western Washington University, USA Catherine Lu Peregrine Schwartz-Shea Simon Fraser University, Canada James N. Druckman McGill University, Canada University of Utah, USA Elisabeth Jean Wood Northwestern University, USA Juan Pablo Luna Maya Sen Yale University, USA Thad Dunning Pontiﬁcia Universidad Catolica, Chile Harvard University, USA UC Berkeley, USA Ellen Lust Elizabeth Sharrow MANAGING EDITOR Elisabeth Ellis University of Gothenburg, Sweden University of Massachusetts Amherst, Dragana Svraka University of Otago, New Zealand Marc Lynch USA ADVISORY BOARD FOR Tanisha Fazal Geroge Washington University, USA Kathryn Sikkink ETHICAL RESEARCH University of Minnesota, USA Lauren M. MacLean Harvard University, USA Catherine Boone Evgeny Finkel University of Indiana, USA Laura Sjoberg London School of Economics and Johns Hopkins University, USA Samantha Majic University of Florida, USA/Royal https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Political Science, UK Jason Frank CUNY - John Jay College, USA Holloway, UK Scott Desposato Cornell University, USA Melanie Manion Anand Sokhey UC San Diego, USA Jill Frank Duke University, USA University of Colorado, Boulder, USA Macartan Humphreys Cornell University, USA Isabela Mares Sarah Song WZB Berlin, Germany, and Robert J. Franzese Yale University, USA UC Berkeley, USA Columbia University, USA University of Michigan, USA Valerie Martinez-Ebers Dietland Stolle Lauren M. MacLean Lorrie Frasure University of North Texas, USA McGill University, Canada Indiana University, USA UCLA, USA Seth Masket Kathleen Thelen Layna Mosley Elisabeth Jay Friedman University of Denver, USA Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University, USA University of San Francisco, USA Peace A. Medie USA Trisha Phillips Lisa Garcia-Bedolla University of Bristol, UK Cameron Thies West Virginia University, USA UC Berkeley, USA Jamila Michener Arizona State University, USA Peregrine Schwartz-Shea Daniel Gillion Cornell University, USA Jakana Thomas University of Utah, USA University of Pennsylvania, USA Michael Minta Michigan State University, USA Farah Godrej University of Minnesota, USA Erica Townsend-Bell EDITORIAL BOARD UC Riverside, USA Sara McLaughlin Mitchell Oklahoma State University, USA Claire Adida Stephan Haggard University of Iowa, USA Ethel Tungchan UC San Diego, USA UC San Diego, USA Burt Monroe York University, Canada Phillip Ayoub Kerry Haynie Pennsylvania State University, USA Antonio Y. Vázquez-Arroyo Occidental College, USA Duke University, USA Layna Mosley Rutgers University, USA

, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at at available use, of terms Core Cambridge the to subject , Lisa Baldez Errol Henderson Princeton University, USA Lisa Wedeen Dartmouth College, USA Pennsylvania State University, USA Tamir Moustafa University of Chicago, USA Lawrie Balfour Yoshiko Herrera Simon Fraser University, Canada Jessica Weeks University of Virginia, USA University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA Byron D’Andra Orey University of Wisconsin–Madison, Karen Beckwith Juliet Hooker Jackson State University, USA USA Case Western Reserve University, USA Brown University, USA Elizabeth Maggie Penn Ismail K. White Catherine Boone Macartan Humphreys Emory University, USA Princeton University, USA London School of Economics and WZB Berlin, Germany, Ravi Perry Jennifer Wolak Political Science, UK and Columbia University, USA Howard University, USA University of Colorado, Boulder, USA 26 Sep 2021 at 11:59:13 at 2021 Sep 26 Janet Box-Steffensmeier Vince Hutchings Justin Phillips Janelle Wong

, on on , Ohio State University, USA University of Michigan, USA Columbia University, USA University of Maryland, USA Pamela Brandwein Turkuler Isikel Trisha Phillips Deborah J. Yashar University of Michigan, USA Columbia University, USA West Virginia University, USA Princeton University, USA

170.106.33.22 Association Ofﬁ ce Address and Membership Information: American Political Science Association individual membership dues are: Regular members with income of $200,000+, $325; $135,000–$199,999, $276; $100,000–$134,999, $246; $80,000–$99,999, $212; $60,000–$79,999, $191; $50,000–$59,999, $175; $40,000– $49,999, $145; $30,000–$39,999, $98; under $30,000, $78; life member, $4,000; associate member (can select only one journal for print or online), $75; family member, $34; K–12 educator, $50; student member, $52; unemployed member, $45; retired, $25,000+, $66; retired under $25,000, $40; targeted international

member, $45. The amount of the dues allocated for a subscription is $8.00 for an individual membership. Institutional members: level one, $900; level two, $1,250; . IP address: address: IP . level three, $1,750. Changes of address for members should be completed online or mailed to APSA Member Services, 1527 New Hampshire Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036-1206. Subscription, Publishing, and Advertising Offi ce Address: Cambridge University Press, One Liberty Plaza, New York, NY 10006; and (outside the United States, Canada, and Mexico) Cambridge University Press, Journals Fulfi llment Department, University Printing House, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS, England. Subscription Information: American Political Science Review (ISSN 0003-0554) is published quarterly in February, May, August, and November by Cambridge University Press (One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006) for the American Political Science Association. Periodicals postage rate paid at New York, NY, and at additional mailing offi ces. Annual institutional electronic-only subscription rate (2021) is US $1642 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; £943 elsewhere. Annual institutional print-and-electronic subscription rate (2021) is US $1903 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; £1080 elsewhere. American Political Science Review is sold only as part of a joint subscription with the Perspective on Politics and PS: Political Science & Politics. Single part rate (2021) is US $201 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; £114 elsewhere. POSTMASTER: Send address changes in the USA, Canada, and Mexico to: American Political https://www.cambridge.org/core Science Review, Cambridge University Press, Journals Fulfi llment Department, One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006. Send address changes elsewhere to American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, Journals Fulfi llment Department, One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006. © American Political Science Astsociation 2021. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, or otherwise, without permission in writing from Cambridge University Press. Policies, request forms, and contacts are available at http://www.cambridge.org/rights/permissions/permission.htm

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NOTES FROM THE EDITORS...... v

ARTICLES

Women Thinkers and the Canon of International Thought: Recovery, Rejection, and Reconstitution https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000216 . . Kimberly Hutchings and Patricia Owens...... 347 From Thin to Thick Representation: How a Female President Shapes Female Parliamentary Behavior Michael Wahman, Nikolaos Frantzeskakis, and Tevfik Murat Yildirim ...... 360 To Emerge? Breadwinning, Motherhood, and Women’s Decisions to Run for Office Rachel Bernhard, Shauna Shames, and Dawn Langan Teele ...... 379 How Do Campaign Spending Limits Affect Elections? Evidence from the United Kingdom 1885–2019 Alexander Fouirnaies...... 395 Universal Suffrage as Decolonization

Kevin Duong...... 412 https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Why Parties Displace Their Voters: Gentrification, Coalitional Change, and the Demise of Public Housing Winston Chou and Rafaela Dancygier...... 429 When Are Legislators Responsive to Ethnic Minorities? Testing the Role of Electoral Incentives and Candidate Selection for Mitigating Ethnocentric Responsiveness Peter Thisted Dinesen, Malte Dahl, and Mikkel Schiøler...... 450 Pride amid Prejudice: The Influence of LGBT+ Rights Activism in a Socially Conservative Society Phillip M . Ayoub, Douglas Page, and Sam Whitt ...... 467 Why Austerity? The Mass Politics of a Contested Policy Kirk Bansak, Michael M . Bechtel, and Yotam Margalit...... 486 Triggering Ideological Thinking: How Elections Foster Coherence of Welfare State Attitudes Tobias Heide-Jørgensen ...... 506 , subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at at available use, of terms Core Cambridge the to subject , Constitutional Origins and Liberal Democracy: A Global Analysis, 1900–2015 Gabriel L . Negretto and Mariano Sánchez-Talanquer ...... 522 Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms Kai Quek...... 537 Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and US Presidential Voting

26 Sep 2021 at 11:59:13 at 2021 Sep 26 Leonardo Baccini and Stephen Weymouth...... 550 , on on , Slavery, Reconstruction, and Bureaucratic Capacity in the American South Pavithra Suryanarayan and Steven White...... 568 When Unfamiliarity Breeds Contempt: How Partisan Selective Exposure Sustains Oppositional Media 170.106.33.22 Hostility Erik Peterson and Ali Kagalwala...... 585 Control without Confirmation: The Politics of Vacancies in Presidential Appointments . IP address: address: IP . Christina M . Kinane...... 599 Platonic Theocracy, Liberalism, and Authoritarianism in Leo Strauss’s Philosophy and Law John P . McCormick...... 615 Deliberation, Single-Peakedness, and Coherent Aggregation

Soroush Rafiee Rad and Olivier Roy...... 629

https://www.cambridge.org/core Downloaded from from Downloaded A Dynamic Model of Speech for the Social Sciences Dean Knox and Christopher Lucas ...... 649 The Political Economy of Governance Quality Michael M . Ting ...... 667

LETTERS Family Matters: How Immigrant Histories Can Promote Inclusion Scott Williamson, Claire L . Adida, Adeline Lo, Melina R . Platas, Lauren Prather, and Seth H . Werfel...... 686 Suppressing Black Votes: A Historical Case Study of Voting Restrictions in Louisiana Luke Keele, William Cubbison, and Ismail White...... 694 Socialist Threat? Radical Party Entry, Electoral Alliances, and the Introduction of Proportional

Representation https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000216 . . André Walter...... 701 Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflict? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, and Aaron Rudkin ...... 709 Sustained Government Engagement Improves Subsequent Pandemic Risk Reporting In Conflict Zones Dotan Haim, Nico Ravanilla, and Renard Sexton...... 717

CORRIGENDUM When the Money Stops: Fluctuations in Financial Remittances and Incumbent Approval in Central

https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia—Corrigendum Katerina Tertytchnaya, Catherine E . De Vries, Hector Solaz, and David Doyle ...... 725

ERRATUM When Are Legislators Responsive to Ethnic Minorities? Testing the Role of Electoral Incentives and Candidate Selection for Mitigating Ethnocentric Responsiveness – ERRATUM

Peter Thisted Dinesen, Malte Dahl, and Mikkel Schiøler...... 728

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https://www.cambridge.org/core Downloaded from from Downloaded ABOUT THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION (APSA)

Founded in 1903, the American Political Science Association (APSA) is the leading professional organization for the study of political science and serves more than 11,000 members in over 100 countries. With a range of programs and services for individuals, departments, and institutions, APSA brings together political scientists from all fields of inquiry, regions, and occupational

endeavors within and outside academe in order to deepen our understanding of politics, democracy, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000216 . . and citizenship throughout the world. The direct advancement of knowledge is at the core of APSA activities. We promote scholarly communication in political science through a variety of initiatives including publishing four distinguished journals: American Political Science Review, Perspectives on Politics, PS: Political Science & Politics, and the Journal of Political Science Education.

OFFICERS FORMER APSA PRESIDENTS

https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms PRESIDENT PRESIDENT-ELECT TREASURER Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier John Ishiyama David Lublin Ohio State University University of North American University Frank J. Goodnow Carl J. Friedrich Texas Albert Shaw C. Herman Pritchett VICE-PRESIDENTS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Frederick N. Judson David B. Truman James Bryce Gabriel A. Almond Michelle Deardorff PAST PRESIDENT Steven Rathgeb Smith A. Lawrence Lowell Robert A. Dahl University of Tennessee, Paula D. McClain Woodrow Wilson Merle Fainsod Chattanooga Duke University Simeon E. Baldwin David Easton Albert Bushnell Hart Karl W. Deutsch Mala Htun W. W. Willoughby Robert E. Lane University of New Mexico John Bassett Moore Heinz Eulau Ernst Freund Robert E. Ward Jesse Macy Avery Leiserson John Sides Munroe Smith Austin Ranney Vanderbilt University Henry Jones Ford James MacGregor Burns Paul S. Reinsch Samuel H. Beer Leo S. Rowe John C. Wahlke COUNCIL William A. Dunning Leon D. Epstein Harry A. Garfield Warren E. Miller James W. Garner Charles E. Lindblom Charles E. Merriam Seymour Martin Lipset

, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at at available use, of terms Core Cambridge the to subject , Charles A. Beard William H. Riker 2018–2021 2019–2022 2020–2023 William Bennett Munro Philip E. Converse Adam J. Berinsky Ben Ansell Menna Demessie Jesse S. Reeves Richard F. Fenno Massachusetts Institute University of Oxford Congressional Black John A. Fairlie Aaron B. Wildavsky of Technology Caucus Foundation Benjamin F. Shambaugh Samuel P. Huntington Erik Bleich Edward S. Corwin Kenneth N. Waltz Ann O’M. Bowman Middlebury College Terry L. Gilmour William F. Willoughby Lucian W. Pye Texas A&M University Midland College Isidor Loeb Judith N. Shklar Alexandra Filindra Walter Shepard Theodore J. Lowi

26 Sep 2021 at 11:59:13 at 2021 Sep 26 Julia S. Jordan-Zachery University of Illinois at Catherine Guisan Francis W. Coker James Q. Wilson University of North Chicago University of Minnesota, Arthur N. Holcombe Lucius J. Barker

, on on , Carolina, Charlotte Twin Cities Thomas Reed Powell Charles O.Jones Rebecca Gill Clarence A. Dykstra Sidney Verba Lori J. Marso University of Nevada, Las Nancy J. Hirschmann Charles Grove Haines Arend Lijphart Union College Vegas University of Robert C. Brooks Elinor Ostrom Pennsylvania Frederic A. Ogg M. Kent Jennings Alberto Simpser Soo Yeon Kim 170.106.33.22 William Anderson Matthew Holden, Jr. Instituto Tecnológico National University of Nahomi Ichino Robert E. Cushman Robert O. Keohane Autónomo de México Singapore Emory University Leonard D. White Robert Jervis John Gaus Robert D. Putnam Charles Smith David Leal Tamara Metz Walter F. Dodd Theda Skocpol

. IP address: address: IP . University of California, University of Texas, Reed College Arthur W. MacMahon Susanne Hoeber Rudolph Irvine Austin Henry R. Spencer Margaret Levi Ido Oren Quincy Wright Ira Katznelson Rocío Titiunik Suzanna Linn University of Florida James K. Pollock Robert Axelrod Princeton University Penn State University Peter H. Odegard Dianne M. Pinderhughes Jillian Schwedler Luther Gulick Peter Katzenstein Lisa Wedeen Melanye Price Hunter College Pendleton Herring Henry E. Brady University of Chicago Prairie View A&M Ralph J. Bunche Carole Pateman University Charles McKinley G. Bingham Powell, Jr. Harold D. Lasswell Jane Mansbridge E. E. Schattschneider John H. Aldrich V. O. Key, Jr. Rodney E. Hero American Political Science Association R. Taylor Cole Jennifer Hochschild https://www.cambridge.org/core 1527 New Hampshire Avenue, NW Carl B. Swisher David Lake Washington, DC 20036 Emmette S. Redford Kathleen Thelen

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