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Numura tēma: „DNB Latvijas barometrs” Nr.86 Latvijas Gada kopsavilkums un 2015.Nr.86 gada decembris barometrs prognozes (2015. gada novembra aptaujas dati) „DNB Latvijas barometra” apraksts „DNB Latvijas barometrs” ir Latvijas iedzīvotāju noskaņojuma, viedokļu un attieksmes pret dažādiem sociāliem, ekonomiskiem u.c. jautājumiem pētījums, kurš ietver arī dažādu sfēru pazīstamu ekspertu vērtējumu un cēloņsakarību analīzi. „DNB Latvijas barometrs” tiek veidots katru mēnesi, un tajā tiek pētītas konkrētā brīža aktuālākās norises. Paralēli katrā no aptaujām sabiedrībai tiek uzdots arī indikatoru jautājumu kopums, kas norāda uz vispārējā sabiedrības noskaņojuma izmaiņām. Dati tiek iegūti SKDS Latvijas pastāvīgo iedzīvotāju aptaujā, veicot tiešās intervijas respondentu dzīves vietās. Ar stratificētās nejaušās izlases metodi katru mēnesi tiek aptaujāti ne mazāk kā 1000 respondenti vecumā no 18 līdz 74 gadiem visā Latvijā. Izlase ir reprezentatīva attiecībā pret ģenerālo kopumu. Pētījuma statistiskā kļūda kopējiem atbilžu sadalījumiem nepārsniedz + / - 3% robežas. „DNB Latvijas barometra” Nr.86 satura rādītājs Informācija par „DNB Latvijas barometru” ....................................................................................................................... 1 I DAĻA - INDIKATORI Kopējais sabiedrības noskaņojums .................................................................................................................................. 3 Tagadnes un nākotnes vērtējums .................................................................................................................................... 3 Kopējās situācijas attīstības vērtējums ............................................................................................................................ 4 Latvijas ekonomikas stāvokļa vērtējums .......................................................................................................................... 4 Ģimenes materiālā stāvokļa vērtējums ............................................................................................................................ 6 Iespēju atrast labu darbu vērtējums ................................................................................................................................. 7 Valdības darba vērtējums ................................................................................................................................................ 7 II EKSPERTU KOMENTĀRI PAR INDIKATORIEM Margarita Dunska, Arnis Kaktiņš, Raita Karnīte, Oļegs Krasnopjorovs, Pēteris Strautiņš, Andris Račs, Feliciana Rajevska .......................................................................................................................................................................... 8 III DAĻA – GADA KOPSAVILKUMS UN PROGNOZES 2015.gada izvērtējums un prognozes par 2016.gadu ...................................................................................................... 12 Kurš pelnījis dāvanas, bet kurš – žagarus?...................................................................................................................... 14 Uzskati par iekšējo un ārējo drošību Latvijā ..................................................................................................................... 20 IV DAĻA – EKSPERTU KOMENTĀRI PAR GADA KOPSAVILKUMU UN PROGNOZĒM Solvita Āboltiņa, Margarita Dunska, Arnis Kaktiņš, Valts Kalniņš, Sandra Kalniete, Raita Karnīte, Oļegs Krasnopjorovs, Artis Pabriks, Andris Račs, Laimdota Straujuma, Roberts Zīle ........................................................................................ 21 PIELIKUMI Aptaujas tehniskā informācija .......................................................................................................................................... 26 Aptaujā izmantotā anketa................................................................................................................................................. 27 Atbildes uz jautājumu „Kurš sabiedrībā pazīstams cilvēks par šogad paveikto no Ziemassvētku vecīša būtu pelnījis žagarus!” .......................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Atbildes uz jautājumu „Un kurš sabiedrībā pazīstams cilvēks šogad būtu pelnījis lielāko Ziemassvētku dāvanu?”.......... 31 „DNB Latvijas barometra” Nr.86 vajadzībām veikto aptauju tehniskā informācija Aptaujas dati iegūti pētījumu centra SKDS Latvijas pastāvīgo iedzīvotāju aptaujā laika posmā no 06.11.2015. līdz 18.11.2015. Ar stratificētās nejaušās izlases metodi, veicot tiešās intervijas respondentu dzīves vietās, tika aptaujāti 1007 respondenti vecumā no 18 līdz 74 gadiem visā Latvijā. 2015.gada decembris 1 „DNB Latvijas barometrs” Nr.86 I DAĻA – INDIKATORI „DNB Latvijas barometra” Nr.86 galvenie rezultāti „DNB Latvijas barometra” Nr.86 rezultāti liecina, ka iedzīvotāju Mēneša laikā notikušās izmaiņas noskaņojums 2015.gada novembrī, salīdzinot ar oktobri, ir (10.2015.-11.2015.) nedaudz pasliktinājies: Kopējā noskaņojuma indekss ir KOPĒJIE INDEKSI izmaiņas punktos samazinājies no -18 līdz -19 punktiem. Pasliktinājies mēneša laikā arī Tagadnes vērtējuma indekss: no -24 līdz -26. Savukārt Kopējā noskaņojuma INDEKSS -1 Nākotnes vērtējums ir uzlabojies: indekss no -1 oktobrī ir pakāpies Tagadnes vērtējuma INDEKSS līdz +1 novembrī. -2 Ja analizē iedzīvotāju noskaņojumu 2015.gadā kopumā, Nākotnes vērtējuma INDEKSS +2 vērojams, ka no janvāra līdz maijam indekss svārstījās robežās no -18 līdz -20. Vasarā tas bija pakāpies un svārstījās robežās no -17 APAKŠINDEKSI izmaiņas punktos līdz -15, bet tad septembrī nokritis līdz -22 punktiem. Tiesa, gada Kopējās situācijas attīstības vērtējums -8 izskaņā Kopējā noskaņojuma indekss atkal ir nedaudz pakāpies: -18 oktobrī un -19 novembrī. Pašreizējā ekonomikas stāvokļa vērtējums -1 Analizējot pētītos apakšindeksus, jāsecina, ka novembrī ir Latvijas ekonomikas stāvokļa izmaiņu vērtējums +1 ievērojami krities Kopējās situācijas attīstības vērtējums (no -15 līdz -23). Kritiskāk vērtēti nekā pirms mēneša novembrī bijuši Latvijas ekonomikas stāvokļa attīstības prognozes +4 Pašreizējais ekonomikas stāvoklis un Valdības darbs (attiecīgi par Pašreizējā ģimenes materiālā stāvokļa vērtējums +1 1 un 4 punktiem uz leju). Pozitīvāki vērtējumi novembrī sniegti Latvijas ekonomikas stāvokļa izmaiņām, Latvijas ekonomikas Ģimenes materiālā stāvokļa attīstības prognozes 0 stāvokļa attīstības prognozēm, kā arī Pašreizējam ģimenes materiālajām stāvoklim. Savukārt Ģimenes materiālā stāvokļa Darba izredžu vērtējums 0 attīstības prognozes un Darba izredžu vērtējums novembrī ir Valdības darba vērtējums -4 palicis oktobra līmenī. Tabulā attēlotas mēneša laikā notikušās izmaiņas (starpība punktos) "DNB Latvijas barometra" ietvaros mērītajos indeksos. Visi indeksi var svārstīties no +100 (visi Indeksu vidējās vērtības: 2008.g - 2015.g. salīdzinājums vērtējumi pozitīvi) līdz -100 (visi vērtējumi negatīvi). 4 3 % 2015* 1 Ģimenes materiālā stāv okļa 2 -4 2014 -6 attīstības prognoze -17 Raksturojot indeksu izmaiņas, jāatzīmē, ka 2015.gadā, -7 2013 -3 -3 salīdzinot ar 2014.gadu, lielākā daļa pētīto jomu ir -1 Latv ijas ekonomikas stāv okļa 2012 1 -8 -8 attīstības prognoze vērtētas atzinīgāk: pieaugums indeksos ir robežās no 1 -26 2011 -18 -13 līdz 4 punktiem, un visvairāk ir uzlabojies Kopējās 2010 -19-15 Pašreizējā ģimenes materiālā -20 -26 situācijas attīstības vērtējums (2014.gadā: -21, 2009 -30 stāv okļa v ērtējums -32 -18 2015.gadā: -17) un Iespēju atrast darbu vērtējums 2008** -16 -13 -6 Latv ijas ekonomikas stāv okļa -10 (2014.gadā: -45, 2015.gadā: -41). -29 -32 izmaiņu v irziens -67 -62 Negatīvāk kā pirms gada 2015.gadā vērtēts Latvijas -17 -21 -33 Kopējās situācijas attīstības -38 ekonomikas stāvokļa izmaiņu virziens (par 3 punktiem -55 -57 v ērtējums -76 uz leju) un Valdības darba vērtējums (par 1 punktu uz -52 -29 -31 Pašreizējā Latv ijas -35 leju). -41 -55 ekonomikas stāv okļa -63 -74 Jāpiebilst, ka Latvijas ekonomikas stāvokļa attīstības -50 v ērtējums -34 -33 -39 prognozes vērtējums gada laikā nav mainījies: gan -39 -54 Valdības darba v ērtējums -53 2014.gadā, gan 2015.gadā indekss ir -3 punkti. -66 -50 -41 -45 -48 -51 -60 Iespēju atrast darbu v ērtējums -70 -74 -31 *2015.gadā vidējās vērtības aprēķinātas par laika posmu no 01.-11.2015. Visi respondenti **2008.gada vidējās vērtības aprēķinātas par laika posmu no 04.-12.2008. 2015.gada decembris 2 „DNB Latvijas barometrs” Nr.86 Kopējais sabiedrības noskaņojums 0 Kopējā noskaņojuma INDEKSS -20 -17 -17-15 -19 -20 -18 -17 -20 -17 -21-20-22-22 -22 -19 -20 -18-20 -19-18-20 -18 -22-21 -20 -23 -23 -20-22 -20 -19 -22 -19 -22 -21 -24 -24-25 -27 -23 -26 -27-25 -25 -28 -29-28 -29 -40 -29 -30-31 -31 -31 -32 -33 -36 -32 -32 -36-36-37 -35-36 -36 -35 -37-37 -39 -39-38 -42 -42 -43 -46-44 -44-45 -51 -49 -47 -51 -49 -49 -60 -52-53 -53-53 -57 -56 -58-58 -57 -80 -100 Visi respondenti 04.08. 05.08. 06.08. 07.08. 08.08. 09.08. 10.08. 11.08. 12.08. 01.09. 02.09. 03.09. 04.09. 05.09. 06.09. 07.09. 08.09. 09.09. 10.09. 11.09. 12.09. 01.10. 02.10. 03.10. 04.10. 05.10. 06.10. 07.10. 08.10. 09.10. 10.10. 11.10. 12.10. 01.11. 02.11. 03.11. 04.11. 05.11. 06.11. 07.11. 08.11. 09.11. 10.11. 11.11. 12.11. 01.12. 02.12. 03.12. 04.12. 05.12. 06.12. 07.12. 08.12. 09.12. 10.12. 11.12. 12.12. 01.13. 02.13. 03.13. 04.13. 05.13. 06.13. 07.13. 08.13. 09.13. 10.13. 11.13. 12.13. 01.14. 02.14. 03.14. 04.14. 05.14. 06.14. 07.14. 08.14. 09.14. 10.14. 11.14. 12.14.
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