2050 Global Europe

Global Europe 2050 Research and Innovation EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Directorate B – European Research Area Unit B.5. – Social Sciences and Humanities Contact: Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission Bureau SDME 04/91 B-1049 Brussels Tel. (32-2) 29-62811 Fax (32-2) 29-79608 E-mail: [email protected] EUROPEAN COMMISSION Global Europe 2050 Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 2012 Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities EUR 25252 GlobalEurope 2012-B5_Interieur_120508.indd 1 14/05/12 16:48 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| GLOBAL EUROPE 2050 EUROPE DIRECT is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2012 ISBN 978-92-79-23357-9 ISSN 1018-5593 DOI:10.2777/79992 © European Union, 2012 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium PRINTED ON ELEMENTAL CHLORINE-FREE BLEACHED PAPER (ECF) GlobalEurope 2012-B5_Interieur_120508.indd 2 14/05/12 16:48 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| GLOBAL EUROPE 2050 3 Foreword We can rise to the Europe 2020 challenges of dealing with an ageing population, securing sustainable resources, developing clean energy supplies, improving healthcare and combating climate change – but only if we take effective short, medium and long term action. This is why the European Commission asked twenty five leading analysts to look into the future and work- through a number of scenarios to see where the EU might be in 2050. Their work, presented in this Global Europe 2050 report, analyses three key scenarios which describe different but nonetheless possible pathways that Europe could choose to follow over the decades to come. The first scenario is what if Nobody cares and Europe just muddles along with no clear vision or direction. In this scenario the analysis shows that economic growth will remain stubbornly lower than in the US and China, and that we will fail to exploit our potential for innovation and will, in consequence, lose our position in terms of global competitiveness to other regions in the world. At the other extreme, the EU under threat scenario paints a bleak picture of global economic decline followed by reactionary protectionist measures. The EU will see its share of world GDP fall by almost a half by 2050. Frequent food and oil crises will occur. EU Member States will become more inward-looking leading to inefficient fragmentation of effort that will touch every sector especially research – so vital for our future prosperity. Fortunately, the third scenario, which the experts call the European Renaissance, describes a much more attractive pathway. The EU continues to enlarge and become stronger. It consoli- dates its political, fiscal and military integration. Innovation systems become more efficient with an increased role given to users. Investment in technological and services innovations will have a direct impact on economic and social development. Member States will work together to make the European Research Area fully functional with research agendas being decided in common across Europe. EU GDP almost double by 2050. These scenarios are presented by some of Europe’s leading foresight and macro-economic modelling experts. Their work not only demonstrates the power of forward-looking exercises but lights the path to a better future – a path that we can and must follow. The first steps have already been taken. The EU 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth has paved the way for the creation of the Innovation Union and led to a completely new EU approach for supporting research and innovation – Horizon 2020, which will help put the EU on the pathway towards a European Renaissance. Robert-Jan SMITS Director-General for Research and Innovation European Commission GlobalEurope 2012-B5_Interieur_120508.indd 3 14/05/12 16:48 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 4 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| GLOBAL EUROPE 2050 Table of Contents 1. Looking ahead: main issues, trends and scenarios building approach 8 1.1 Unfolding issues and trends 8 1.2 Scenario building approach 19 1.2.1 Qualitative analysis 20 1.2.2 Quantitative analysis 36 2. Global Europe-2050 scenarios 60 2.1 Standstill in European Integration – ‘Nobody cares’ 62 2.1.1 Global demographic and societal challenges 64 2.1.2 Energy and natural resources security and efficiency, environment and climate change 66 2.1.3 Economy and technology prospects 69 2.1.4 Geopolitics and governance 75 2.1.5 Territorial and mobility dynamics 79 2.1.6 Research, education and innovation 80 2.2 Fragmented European Integration – ‘EU Under threat’ 82 2.2.1 Global demographic and societal challenges 84 2.2.2 Energy and natural resource security and efficiency, environment and climate change 87 2.2.3 Economy and technology prospects 90 2.2.4 Geopolitics and governance 92 2.2.5 Territorial and mobility dynamics 97 2.2.6 Research, education and innovation 98 GlobalEurope 2012-B5_Interieur_120508.indd 4 14/05/12 16:48 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| GLOBAL EUROPE 2050 5 2.3 Further European integration – ‘EU Renaissance’ 99 2.3.1 Global demographic and societal challenges 101 2.3.2 Energy and natural resource security and efficiency, environment and climate change 104 2.3.3 Economy and technology prospects 107 2.3.4 Geopolitics and governance 119 2.3.5 Territorial and mobility dynamics 124 2.3.6 Research, education and innovation 126 3. Shaping the future: EU research and innovation policy 128 3.1 Nobody cares… but the European Commission 130 3.2 EU Under threat… 133 3.3 An EU Renaissance… from European romanticism to European ‘Realpolitik’ 136 4. Key messages 140 4.1 Investing in knowledge 140 4.2 Political and cultural integration 141 4.3 Business as usual is not an option 142 Annex 1 – Bibliography 144 Annex 2 – Experts’ biographies 148 Acknowledgements 157 GlobalEurope 2012-B5_Interieur_120508.indd 5 14/05/12 16:48 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 6 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| GLOBAL EUROPE 2050 Tables Table 1 Regional aggregations 38 Table 2 List of sectors used for the exercise 39-40 Table 3 Main variables in the scenario modelling 40 Table 4 Scenario structure and wild cards 60 Table 5 GDP for selected regions, 2010-2050, constant 2005 USD bn: ‘Nobody cares’ 63 Table 6 GDP for selected regions, 2010-2050, constant 2005 USD bn: ‘EU Under threat’ 83 Table 7 Labour force at 2050: ‘EU Under threat’ 90 Table 8 Human capital at 2050: ‘EU Under threat’ 91 Table 9 GDP for selected regions, 2010-2050, constant 2005 USD bn: ‘EU Renaissance’ 99 Figures Figure 1 Energy price (2005 USD per barrels of oil) Nobody cares, Renaissance and Under threat 42 Figure 2 Energy efficiency in the three scenarios: Japan, USA, China 43 Figure 3 Energy consumption in the three scenarios: China 43 Figure 4 Population in the main regions of the developing world: Nobody cares 45 Figure 5 Population in the main regions of the developed world: Nobody cares 45 Figure 6 Labour force – USA and EU: Nobody cares 45 Figure 7 Average number of years of schooling: Nobody cares 46 Figure 8 Average number of years of schooling: Under threat 47 Figure 9 Average number of years of schooling: Renaissance 47 Figure 10 Accumulation of capital: Nobody cares 47 Figure 11 Capital intensity of the production: Nobody cares 48 GlobalEurope 2012-B5_Interieur_120508.indd 6 14/05/12 16:48 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| GLOBAL EUROPE 2050 7 Figure 12 Total Factor Productivity: Nobody cares, EU27 as a whole 49 Figure 13 Total Factor Productivity: Nobody cares, focus on the developing world 49 Figure 14 Total Factor Productivity: Nobody cares, euro-zone largest economies 49 Figure 15 Total Factor Productivity: Renaissance and Under threat 50 Figure 16 EU27 GDP under the three scenarios (constant 2005 USD) 50 Figure 17 GDP ‘Under threat’ and ‘Renaissance’ scenarios: EU27, USA, China (constant 2005 USD) 51 Figure 18 GDP of India, SSA, MENA (constant 2005 USD) 52 Figure 19 GDP per capita (constant 2005 PPP) relative to the US (USA = 100 at each date) 52 Figure 20 World GDP in 2050 (bn 2005 USD) for each scenario 53 Figure 21 Changes in agricultural productivity associated with climate change: Under threat 54 Figure 22 TFP gains in agriculture (2010-2050) EU27 55 Figure 23 TFP gains in agriculture (2010-2050) Sub-Saharan Africa 55 Figure 24 Regional shares in world vegetal production: ‘Nobody cares’ 55 Figure

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