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The European Parliament 2025 Preparing for Complexity

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The European Parliament 2025 Preparing for Complexity THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2025 Multi- player systems Doing Multi-level politics in governance 2025 r -pola Multi xt conte Prospective studies ech -t and Planning lti r Mu rato ele acc Legislative cooperation al hnic Tec es leng chal PREPARING FOR COMPLEXITY CSG Strategic Planning Team January 2012 - 2 - THE SECRETARY GENERAL THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2025 PREPARING FOR COMPLEXITY REPORT ABOUT THE REPORT Origin The present report is an initiative of the Secretary-General of the European Parliament. The objective is to progressively introduce an increased attention to the long term issues and to give to the EP's different stakeholders the opportunity to build their own vision of the long term major trends likely to impact their missions and their working processes. The purpose of the First Part (Part 1) of the Report was to initiate internal discussions, to raise questions and options (Part 2) as part of a continued and collective process to bring the functioning of the institution in line with its rapidly moving environment in a time of increased uncertainty. Methodology This First Part of the Report draws on analyses of mega-trends from academic literature. The methodology followed has been to compile central elements of theory from various disciplines (international relations, political sciences, social sciences, technology) concerning some key long-term mega-trends identified as relevant in the EP context. This short list of mega-trends is of course not exclusive. Academic works selected are among the most read and most frequently quoted ones. Those sources have been completed by recent empirical analyses or opinions from think tanks, research bodies, expert groups or the press, supporting hypotheses founded in theory. Findings The new multi-polarity of the globalised world, the multilevel nature of governance, the multiple players interacting in law-making, are likely to create a new context for the EP directly or indirectly. This heightened complexity may entail risks of fragmentation of (economic) governance, regulation and law. Fragmentation may lead to a loss of coherence, systematic overlaps and lasting conflicts between jurisdictions, as well as to an institutional paralysis, and, then, to democratic frustration, as it becomes more and more difficult to understand who is producing change in regulation and should be made accountable for success and failures. In order to contribute to actively prevent the risk of political and regulatory fragmentation, the EP has to prepare itself for this upcoming complexity. PE479.851/BUR EN This document has been presented to the President of the European Parliament, the Members of the Bureau of the European Parliament, Quaestors of the European Parliament and Directors General of the European Parliament during the 'Awaydays' meeting in La Hulpe, Belgium, on 26 & 27 January 2012. THE EDITOR: Klaus Welle The Secretary General European Parliament B-1047 Brussels Email contact: [email protected] RESPONSIBLE ADMINISTRATOR: Franck Debié Team Leader EP2025 Cabinet of the Secretary General European Parliament B-1047 Brussels Email contact: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSIONS: Original: EN Translation: FR, DE REPORT COMPILED BY: Strategic Planning Team (2011) Cabinet of the Secretary General ___________ Manuscript completed in January 2012 Brussels, © European Parliament, 2012 ___________ DISCLAIMER Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. - 2 - TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY English 7 French 11 German 15 PART 1 - REPORT 19 INTRODUCTION - Four concepts bringing structure to a world of uncertainties 21 Multi-polar context 22 Multi-level governance 24 Multi-player policy making 27 28 Multi-tech accelerator shrinking time and space CHAPTER 1 - Multi-polar context 31 1. The realities of multi-polarity 32 2. Future of the European normative diplomacy and soft power 36 3. Relative decline of European foreign policy resources 38 4. EU changing security interests and influence channels of the Europeans 39 CHAPTER 2 - Multi-level governance 43 1. The rise and spill over of multi-level governance 43 2. Is decentralization sustainable? 48 3. The rise of localism 50 4. Making supra-national and multilateral decision levels effective and 51 accountable CHAPTER 3 - Doing politics in a multi-player context 55 1. Generational change and discontent with politics 55 2. Individual political entrepreneurship 58 3. Lobbying and coalition building at European level 60 4. Reforming the parliamentary institutions in face of growing anti-parliament 62 feeling - 3 - CHAPTER 4 - Legislative cooperation in the digital age 65 1. What basis for law in a globalised world? 66 2. What model of law? 66 3. The lack of transparency of EU law 67 4. From e-democracy to wikis: direct democracy nursing law? 69 5. The internet revolution and its effect on law 71 CHAPTER 5 - Ageing of the European population and related issues 73 1. World growth, stagnation in Europe and population ageing 73 2. Risk factors for excess mortality 75 3. Reduction in the national workforce and immigration 76 4. Socio-economic impacts of an ageing population 81 5. New patterns of work: unimaginable challenges 84 CHAPTER 6 - Multi-tech accelerator 89 1. Major trends in the development of the digital world 90 2. The challenges and risks of digitisation 95 CONCLUSION 105 PART 2 - QUESTIONS 109 1. Multi-polar contexte 111 2. Multi-level governance 113 3. Multi-player policy making 115 4. Multi-tech accelerator 117 BIBLIOGRAPHY 121 ANNEXE 1 AVAILABLE SOURCES 125 ANNEXE 2 PRESS ARTICLES 129 - 4 - ABBREVIATIONS CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy EC European Commission EP European Parliament ESDP European Security and Defence Policy ESPAS European Strategy and Policy Analysis System EU European Union EUISS European Union Institute for Security Studies FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDI Foreign Direct Investment G-2 China and USA G-20 Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of important industrialized and developing economies G-8 Group of Eight is a forum for the governments of six major economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and Russia. In addition, the EU is represented within the G8, but cannot host or chair GCC Gulf Cooperation Countries IFI International Financial Institutions IMF International Monetary Fund MEP Member of European Parliament NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-Governmental Organization OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development SME Small and Medium Enterprise TEU Treaty European Union UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR United Nations Refugee Agency UNU United Nations University US United States USA United States of America Wi-Fi Wireless Fidelity WTO World Trade Organization - 5 - - 6 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The European Parliament in 2025 – preparing for complexity The following four concepts, which are inextricably linked with the new face of globalisation, are frequently put forward in contemporary academic work in order to give an idea of the increased complexity of the world in 2025: – the political multi-polarity of the globalised world, – the preponderance of multi-level governance, – the increase in the number of actors contributing to the drafting and implementation of public policies, – technology as a factor in the speed of change. THE NEW MULTI-POLAR CONTEXT Following the end of the Cold War in 1989, the bipolar world view has been replaced with a multi- polar system. The European Union has benefited from this favourable context by gaining new markets, seeking to spread its common values and contributing to the emergence of new common rules for the globalised era. Multi-polarisation will continue in the coming years owing to the rapid economic growth of emerging economies, their increasing role on global markets and the share in foreign investments. The new multi-polar structure of the world will also bear the mark of the waning influence of America and Western models. A new balance could take the shape of a bipolar G2 system consisting of the United States and China. What role would the Europeans have in that system? Another possibility would be a system of organised cooperation among continental powers, like the G20. Will Europeans be able to speak with a single voice? A third possibility is a proliferation of medium-sized powers, following their own agenda, in an international system with little commercial and geo-strategic regulation. The European Union's neighbourhood will include several of these new medium-sized powers, such as Turkey, Iran and the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council. How will Europeans protect their interests and security as well as promoting their values? How will they gain recognition as a coherent economic power and a stable political actor capable of decisions and actions allowing them to face security challenges and actively take part in effective multilateralism? In this more demanding context, how can we avoid the fragmentation of the Union and the dilution of its capacity to act whilst protecting the wealth and attractiveness of its democratic model? MULTI-LEVEL GOVERNANCE No other international organisation involves as many public and private actors and different levels of governance as the European Union. The closely linked multi-level structures which have come into being in the past few years have led to the complex interweaving of political decision-making levels. Decentralisation has increased the powers of local and regional authorities. At the same time, in successive European treaties, the Member States have transferred competences to the supra- national level of the European Union. A global level of governance is also emerging in relation to - 7 - climate issues and the organisation of financial markets. The close links between the various levels are contributing to a major change in political practice and are creating new systems of checks and balances, reflecting not only local demands but also common interests at continental or planetary level.
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