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Home , Anthony Eden, Claire Perry, Esther McVey, Jeremy Quin, Jo Johnson, Kwasi Kwarteng

December 2018

Perhaps the most challenging few weeks of ’s premiership and the endgame on the negotiations. This is the seventh update shedding light on what catches the eye in and around Westminster and its satellite community of advisers, think tanks and hangers on.

Some of this may have been captured in the headlines and other stuff. Views my own but an acknowledgement that everyone is working hard in a challenging political environment and bad- tempered world….and one last thing, this can’t possibly be a Brexit-free zone.

Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA

May Makes History

Given the last few turbulent weeks, Theresa May has amazingly now been in charge long enough to overtake former Liberal PM Henry Campbell-Bannerman’s record of two years and 120 days in Downing Street (1905-08). May is now only the fifth shortest-serving British PM since 1900, having already passed Andrew (1922-23), Alec Douglas-Home (1963-64) and (1955-57). Her next target is to hang on until June 2019, so beating ’s record of two years and 318 days.

Odds on this…..?

Key Political Dates

Over the past two weeks the Prime Minister has spent over 12 hours at the despatch box across three marathon House of Commons statements including two extended PMQs sessions and the liaison committee. This, together with her UK tour and the ongoing media campaign, means voters can’t fail to notice the PM pulling out all the stops to get this deal through.

No 2018 General Election There cannot now be a general election this calendar year. 25 working days are needed between dissolving Parliament and holding this election.

No 10 Brexit Deal Media Campaign Designed to make as much impact as possible before the vote on 11th December, here is the agenda outlined by No 10 to promote a different aspect of May’s exit package: December 4: Immigration December 5: Transport December 6: Industrial strategy December 7: Brexit for the whole U.K. December 8: Consumers December 10: Agriculture and fish

Tuesday 11 December - The Meaningful Vote The Government has confirmed the dates on which Parliament will debate and vote on the draft Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.

In a letter to Conservative MPs, Government Chief Whip Julian Smith has confirmed the 'Meaningful Vote' will be debated over five days on Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5th, Thursday 6th, Monday 10th and Tuesday 11th December. MPs will then vote at the conclusion of the debate on 11th December.

The conditions for Parliamentary approval of the outcome of negotiations with the EU are set out under Section 13 of the (Withdrawal) Act 2018. In a written statement the Prime Minister confirmed that the first condition had been met, namely laying a copy of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration before both Houses of Parliament. The five days of debate and the vote on 11th December fulfils the second condition: "the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of ".

Both agreements will also need to be approved by a vote in the . The final condition is legislating for the Withdrawal Agreement, which ministers have confirmed they will do.

As we enter a critical phase of the Brexit process in Parliament the House of Commons Library has produced the following illustration of different ways the process could play out. This Insight sets out what we expect to happen in the coming days in the lead-up to the Commons’ “meaningful vote” on the deal. It also explains what to look out for once the Commons has taken its decision on 11 December.

View Brexit Roadmap here

Survey on TV Brexit Debate

Latest Voting Intention Polling

The latest YouGov/ Times voting intention survey sees 40% of Britons saying they would vote Conservative (unchanged from last week's survey) while 38% say they would back Labour (from 35%). Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 9% (from 10%) and votes for other parties stands at 13% (from 15%).

When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, this week's poll shows 35% of people prefer Theresa May while 24% favour . A further 37% answered "not sure.

Government Resignations and Appointments

Resignations • Brexit Secretary • Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey • Minister • PPS to the Department for Exiting the European Union • PPS to the Anne-Marie Trevelyan • PPS to the Ministry of Justice • Vice-Chair of the Conservative Party • Transport Minister • Downing Street's Director of Legislative Affairs Nikki Da Costa • Sports and Civil Society Minister • Universities Minister

Appointments • makes a swift return to Cabinet as the new Work and Pensions Secretary • Steve Barclay becomes the third Brexit Secretary • May loyalist replaces Crouch as the new Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport • has been promoted (replacing Jo Johnson at Transport) • Norman was previously a junior minister in the department. • Andrew Jones MP takes Jesse’s previous position as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Transport. • is new at Department of Health and Social Care • Rising star is the new DExEU Parliamentary Under Secretary of State • MP is Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Office and an Assistant Government Whip • MP is now a Government Whip (unpaid) • is Assistant Government Whip (unpaid but adds both to the Government payroll numbers) • has been appointed as the new universities and science minister. He was formerly a Conservative party vice president for policy.

Average of resignations per days in office ration (so 1 every (x) days) • Theresa May: 106 days

• Gordon Brown: 175 days • : 281 days • : 371 days

Source: BBC Research

** since drafting this May now overtakes Cameron **

No 10 Final Vote Board

Downing Street has formed a special unit of senior advisers, based in the , drawn up of senior advisers from Downing Street, officials in the Cabinet Office Europe unit who had worked for Brexit negotiator , and aides from the Brexit department. The team given the name “Project Vote”. The Group is working closely with chief whip Julian Smith and a group of senior MPs. According to officials, Project Vote has “already priced in” losing the meaningful vote in the Commons slated for 11th December. One serving cabinet minister has admitted privately they may not be able to vote for the deal, and a second has told friends they are thinking of resigning before the vote and an estimated 95 Conservative MPs have publicly declared they will vote for the withdrawal agreement. While the crack team is battling hard for the best result, it is accepted inside Number 10 that keeping the margin of defeat as low as possible may now be the priority.

If May loses the meaningful vote by fewer than 100 MPs, government aides believe they are "still in the

game" and have a chance of winning a second vote before Christmas. Lose by more than 100, and they fear the deficit would be insurmountable and the PM is in resignation territory. Despite May’s insistence that this is the final deal and that the EU would countenance no further negotiations, the unit has speculated that, in the event the government loses the first vote, the PM could go back to Brussels and secure some form of concession from the EU.

Read Tim Hames 28 November Insight for further opinion.

Business Councils

In other non-Brexit news, the Prime Minister has announced 5 new business councils, including the Industrial, Infrastructure and Manufacturing Council. This council will be responsible for materials; aerospace; defence; advanced manufacturing; automotive, aviation, ports and rail; infrastructure, construction and housing; energy; and environmental services. Roger Carr (Chairman, BAE Systems) and Ian Davis (Chairman, Rolls Royce) will co-chair the Council and Stephen Phipson (CEO, EEF) will be the business group representative.

Each council will meet three times a year, twice with the Prime Minister and once with a senior cabinet minister, to provide high-level advice and policy recommendations on the critical issues affecting business. The councils will also be a forum for the government to share developing policy ideas and seek the views of members. They will provide advice and policy recommendations on big business issues.

Mrs May said she has asked these new councils to "advise us on the opportunities and challenges facing business as we shape the UK for the future".

After two years of feeling they were "outside the tent" when it came to Brexit strategy and policy, Theresa May is welcoming as many business big hitters back inside as she can. Quite a change from her conference overtures in 2016.

New breed of Ambassadors

Foreign Secretary recently announced Britain will hire business leaders instead of career civil servants as ambassadors after Brexit to boost the nation’s relations with the rest of the world. He set out plans to open up top diplomatic jobs to non-civil servants as part of a push to recruit "under-represented

groups" to act on behalf of the UK on the global stage.

The wants to shake up the state of the UK’s overseas diplomatic operations so that the nation is well-prepared to redefine its relationship with the rest of the world once Britain has left the European Union in March 2019.

Age Tax

Like Brexit, social care of our elderly is a huge public policy issue that ultimately requires consensus and compromise. But like Brexit (and of course because of it), it’s an issue where the can keeps getting kicked down the road. Several Whitehall insiders think that it’s likely the long-expected green paper on this may slip into 2019. Health Secretary is 'attracted' to an 'age tax' on the over-40s, similar to a Japanese model of paying for social care with a special national insurance fund. With a cross-party report this summer suggesting something similar, it might be a runner….

Delayed Immigration White Paper The long awaited Immigration White Paper (due last week) is to be delayed until after the Vote on 11 December. A Government-backed committee in September called for a ban on any foreign worker who would be earning less than £30,000 a year from obtaining a visa for Brexit Britain. Speaking to the Home Affairs Select Committee recently said that was “too rigid” hence some further discussion with other government departments on the direction of the White Paper. He has also refused to back the PM’s target to bring net migration down below 100,000.

Labour Land

Labour has been preparing for a snap general election since the summer with the party pouring resources into ’s Conservative seat in Broxtowe, where the Conservatives have a majority of less than 1,000 for the vocal Remainer.

Senior Labour party officials reckon the prospect of a small breakaway party of Conservative and Labour Remainers is still a real prospect, and want the message out there that they would demand a by-election if Soubry or other Conservative Remainers break away. However the subtle message reaches out to other Labour Remainers who might be considering a breakaway that they would likely face the same treatment.

Corbyn Referendum Position or Not

As for Corbyn admitting recently he didn’t know how he’d vote in any second referendum, it was obvious he was simply trying to avoid committing to any answer (just as the Prime Minister refused to say how she’d vote if the referendum was re-run). What was more significant was that he again kept alive the possibility of such a referendum. Corbyn has used his recent CBI speech to suggest he could somehow negotiate a better deal with the EU in just a few months.

Vote on Executive Pay The Labour Party is calling for an annual 'binding vote' on executive packages which could be voted on by all stakeholders, including both employees and customers. Labour is also considering plans to give customers the right to vote on the pay of top executives.

Labour welcomes an independent report into curbing excessive executive pay and tackling pay inequality. The report, by a group of experts led by Professor Prem Sikka, includes recommendations that: • Executive remuneration contracts in large companies be made publicly available. • Executive remuneration be in cash, as rewards in share options, shares and perks invite abuses. • Pay differentials between executives and employees analysed by gender and ethnicity be published. • Company law be amended to give stakeholders the right to propose a cap on executive pay and bonus package. • The remuneration of each executive at large companies be subject to annual binding vote by a range of stakeholders.

Four-Day Week The idea of Labour backing a four-day week was aired at Labour’s party conference this year. Since , John McDonnell boosted this idea stating that increasing automation of jobs “might mean reducing hours of work… the Germans and French produce in four days what we produce in five and yet we work the longest hours”. Earlier TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady had said: "I believe that in this century we can win a four-day working week."

To gain traction McDonnell is in talks with crossbench peer and highly respected economist Lord Skidelsky about an inquiry into cutting the length of the working week. The party insists the idea is not party policy but…….what John wants he gets!

Chu££a Streatham MP and outspoken Remainer Chukka Umunna has accepted a role chairing the advisory board of think tank Progressive Centre UK for 12 hours per month at £65k. Nice work if you can get it…

JezzFest 2019 Remember Labour Live 2018? Well it's back for 2019. The newly reformed Spice Girls have apparently been banned from next year’s festival due to their professed love for . Also missing out on JezzFest II is Noel Gallagher, who was less than complementary about the Labour leader.

Appointments Sandy Martin has been appointed Shadow Minister for Waste and Recycling.

Dan Carden, who has only been an MP since 2017 and a shadow minister since January, has been made acting Shadow International Development Secretary.

Resignations Labour MP has resigned as shadow international development spokesperson.

Labour Leaver Carwyn Jones is departing as first minister of Wales

Recognisable Labour Politicians With a potential general election possible in early 2019 all politicians need to be recognised. A recent survey showed that only Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn (98%) and Diane Abbott (86%) were known by more than half of those surveyed. Even John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, who has been out on the airwaves, was unknown to 51%.

So why is this relevant? If voters like the fresh and the new, being unknown to the voting public mid electoral cycle is no bad thing. Labour have a different problem which I touched upon in an earlier edition of WW. Efforts have been made to get more of the shadow cabinet out and about, raising their profile and hammering their policy briefs. The problem is voters only really know Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell, so they are the ones who get booked for the television.

Despite the opinion polls being close all is not rosy with the young voters.

Young people are drifting away from Labour. According to a recent exclusive YouGov the party has dropped 14 points among 18 to 24-year-olds since July last year. As one very senior Labour figure puts it: "Corbyn is a fashion item, and the problem with fashion items is they go out of fashion."

Lib Dem

HQ Redundancies

The Lib Dems plans to make 20 people - about a quarter of the workforce - redundant. The party has a hole in its budget of several hundred thousand pounds. A spokesman said that the party was having a reorganisation that would involve reducing numbers at its HQ.

SNP

Holyrood backs second referendum

The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of a second EU referendum by a margin of 65 to 30. The majority of SNP MSPs backed the motion, along with Liberal Democrats, Greens, and two rebel Labour members.

However, the political noise over Brexit has seen the heat turned up over a second Scottish referendum. A recent poll has seen an increase in a desire for another referendum.

1922 Committee

In this edition of WW we look more closely at the and why it’s so influential within the Conservative Party given the recent speculation over the required number of 'letters' to force a leadership contest.

The 1922 Committee, formally known as the Conservative Private Members' Committee, is the parliamentary group of the Conservative Party in the House of Commons. The committee, consisting of all Conservative MPs, meets weekly while Parliament is in session and provides a way for to co-ordinate and discuss their views independently of frontbenchers. The committee was formed in 1923 after the 1922 general election. The name does not, as is sometimes wrongly supposed, stem from the 19 October 1922 meeting at the in which Conservative MPs successfully demanded that the party withdraw from the coalition government of , and which had triggered that general election.

The 1922 Committee has an 18-member executive committee, (officers are generally backbench MPs), the chairman of which oversees the election of party leaders, or any Conservative party-led vote of confidence in a current leader. Such a vote can be triggered by 15 percent of Conservative MPs writing a letter to the chairman asking for such a vote. This process was used most recently on 28 October 2003, when 25 MPs requested a vote of confidence in by writing to the chairman, then Michael Spicer. Duncan Smith lost the vote the next day.

BVCA Engagement across the Parties

I attended a meeting on Talking Brexit with Robbie Gibb, No Director of Communications. Under Chatham House rule Robbie spoke at length on the Withdrawal Agreement Deal, our future trading relationship with the EU and other countries, the Northern Ireland backstop and future technology, protection for workers, May’s leadership and resilience, party politics, potential leadership contest, No10’s media campaign to explain the deal to voters and the need for a dialogue with business to bring stability.

The future of inward investment: Discussion with Graham Stuart MP, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State and Minister for Investment at the Department of International Trade. Senior policy-makers, public service leaders and business leaders heard how Government is prioritising ideas to further support inward investment to the UK. The wide-ranging discussion included skills, the industrial strategy, the UK's regional growth as well as the need for continued dialogue between business and Government.

Business breakfast with the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock MP, who recently spoke at BVCA Summit on the importance of tech innovation in the NHS. Under Chatham House rule the Health Secretary spoke on a wide range of issues including the challenges of mental health and the links with social media and the increase in self-harm, obesity and the increase in living age and challenges of dealing with dementia. Also discussed was the progression of the NHS from tackling public health issues to dealing with multi illness challenges and the role of the state in prevention and changing behaviour

A Women in Work conference with a keynote speech from MP, Minister for Women and Equalities and Secretary of State for International Development. She spoke on the challenges that women face in the workplace, including the gender pay gap. She also discussed issues facing people with disabilities and the need for an interdepartmental approach in government, a strong economy, and co- operation and dialogue with business and employers to make further progress.

Under the title discussion ‘Strategic shifts of care in the NHS’ Labour MP and Health and Social Care Select Committee member Dr Paul Williams spoke on his vision of the delivery of better care for Britain’s ageing population with a shift of emphasis from treatment of illness to prevention and from ‘hospital to home’. The Stockton South MP. A GP for 14 years before ‘accidentally’ becoming an MP at the last election, spoke passionately on the need to change the focus to the 'beginning of life (the first 1000 days)' from the 'end of life' which eats the NHS resources. And the need for personalised care and integration between health and social care.

Business reception at the House of Commons hosted by the Enterprise Forum. Guest speaker was Altrincham and Sale West MP Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the influential Conservative 1922 Committee. We also attended Labour's post-Budget business briefing delivered by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell MP and Shadow Financial Secretary Anneliese Dodds MP. The Shadow Chancellor set out his plans to secure the long term economic health of the UK.

Post-Budget discussion with Rachel Reeves MP Chair of the influential BEIS House of Commons Select Committee. Hosted by think tank IPPR, Rachel spoke on an alternate Labour budget and the influence of Brexit on Monday’s budget announcement.

The launch of The Fair Pay Report: How Pay Transparency Could Help Tackle Pay Inequalities from the think tank IPPR. Speakers included LibDem Deputy Leader MP and Kate O’Neill, Deputy Director Government Equalities Office In 2016 the Government introduced compulsory gender pay reporting in order to promote transparency and encourage employers to take action to narrow the pay gap. The report acknowledges that good progress has been made and recommends it be expanded to medium sized organisations.

Other recent autumn events have included discussions with Chris Heaton Harris MP, Brexit Minister, Cabinet Office Minister MP, Labour City Minister Jonathan Reynolds MP, Rt Hon MP, Rt Hon MP Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, Rt Hon , Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Rt Hon Esther McVey MP, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.

Recently Tim Hames gave oral evidence to the House of Lords EU Financial Affairs subcommittee on the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the European Investment Bank.

The inquiry focused on how the UK might continue to participate in the European Investment Bank (EIB), and UK alternatives to it.

The committee also explored what short-term actions might be required to support businesses negatively affected by any loss of EIB funding.

Baroness Falkner of Margravine, Sub-Committee Chair said: "The European Investment Bank is the largest multilateral lender in the world and the UK has benefited substantially from this relationship - in 2015 the UK received £5.6 billion from the EIB, which supported £16 billion of overall investment." The Committee will consider how we might continue to participate in the EIB, and UK alternatives to it. There is evidence that funding to the UK is already declining, so we will also explore what short-term actions might be required to support businesses negatively affected by this loss." The BVCA submitted written evidence.

UK’s leading think tank: Institute for Government

On a regular basis I will be looking at one of the UK’s leading policy think tanks.

This edition it’s the new think tank on the block, the Institute for Government, founded in 2008. Bronwen Maddox (a previous BVCA dinner speaker) took over as Director of the Institute for Government in September 2016.

The Institute for Government is an independent think tank which aims to improve government effectiveness through research and analysis. It was founded as a charity in 2008 and was initially funded with approximately £15 million by the Gatsby Charitable Foundation.

The Institute's objectives are to engage with MPs and top UK civil servants by: • supporting the development and skills of senior public servants, politicians and political

advisors • conducting and funding research on public administration and government • providing 'thought leadership' on effective government through publications, seminars and events.

The charitable objectives of the Institute are: the advancement of education in the art and science of government in the UK for the benefit of the public and on a non-party political basis; and the promotion of efficient public administration of government and public service in the UK by providing programmes of education, training, research and study for the public benefit and on a non-party political basis.

Their research focuses on the big governance challenges of the day and on finding new ways to help government improve, rethink and sometimes see things differently. To help ministers, special advisers and top officials to develop further the skills and behaviours required to govern effectively, and to help opposition parties to become better prepared for political transitions and government.

Hope you enjoyed this lively edition. So much is going on and no-one knows exactly where it will end up.. I have no idea what the next few weeks hold politically, but in those immortal words – I’ll be back….

Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA