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Home , Ben Wallace (politician), Esther McVey, Gavin Williamson, Grant Shapps, Jake Berry, James Cleverly

23 July 2019

PRIORITIES OF A ADMINISTRATION

t last the speculation is over. His appointment will likely be accompanied by the traditional bounce in the polls, but the Boris Johnson has been confirmed honeymoon period is going to be extremely as Leader of the Conservative Party, short. voted in overwhelmingly, perhaps inevitably, by 92,153 of the party Indeed, there is every chance that his A faithful – vs 46,656 for . premiership and commitments made during the campaign could be sabotaged within days. He will enter No. 10 faced with arguably the largest political and constitutional crisis of any Here we consider just some of the challenges Prime Minister in peacetime history. that the Boris Johnson administration faces over the coming months.

Headland briefing | PRIORITIES OF A BORIS JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION | 01 GETTING HIS TEAM RIGHT With victory long expected, factions have All will vie with those expected to remain in cabinet established themselves amongst Boris (, , and Sajid supporting MPs. Javid) and those Brexiteers who left it within the past year or so (, Esther McVey and Those who backed his faltering bid in 2016 ). (Nigel Adams, , and ) are competing for influence with those who This will start to come out in the wash from early are seen to have played a key role in navigating Wednesday evening. The civil service is pressing for the MPs leg of this contest ( and the full cabinet to be appointed by nightfall though ), elder statesmen positioning it is not impossible that he chooses to split it over themselves for a comeback (, Iain two days. He would do well to avoid the Theresa Duncan-Smith), young thrusters ( May mistake of making sackings too brisk given and ) and those who served under him he will need the support of those who go to the in London ( and ). backbenches.

SURVIVING A VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE One of the first tests Boris Johnson could face is the Commons rises for recess this Thursday. This whether he can command the confidence of the is unlikely. Aside from time constraints the Labour Commons. leadership is alive to the risk of giving the new PM an early opportunity to claim parliamentary Losing a confidence motion wouldn’t trigger an authority and a mandate. election straightaway. The existing government (or an alternative one) has 14 days to regain the If they do table a motion this week the figures confidence of the Commons. Some Tories might see are unlikely to stack up. Even with big beasts that as an opportunity to persuade Boris to change including the likes of suggesting tack. But it’s a high-risk strategy under which the they are ready to bring down the Government to party, as well as the Government, can lose control avoid no deal, doing so on the first day of a new of events. Conservative PM is a truly nuclear option and those who are considering pressing the self-destruct Labour has said that it will bring forward a motion button will probably give Johnson some room as soon as it thinks it can win one – with some to try and get a deal. speculating a motion could be tabled before

OPERATING IN A DWINDLING WORKING MAJORITY The Government’s working majority (via the Since the last election, 4 Conservative MPs have confidence and supply deal with the DUP) has resigned the party whip over . And it’s possible fallen from 13 in June 2017 to just 4 as of . this number will increase as we head towards the October deadline with rumours of Tory Remainers In normal times, such a tiny majority would be defecting to a resurgent Liberal Democrats under expected to instil rigorous discipline amongst the leadership of Jo Swinson, eradicating the government . But with Brexit, the Government’s working majority completely. breakdown of collective responsibility and the effect of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, backbench MPs The Brecon and Radnorshire byelection, taking have become more inclined to speak out and vote place next Thursday, is the first bump in the against the Government. The new Prime Minister road for Boris. The Liberal Democrats have a therefore faces a huge challenge in navigating history of winning the seat and with their rise in parliament, even on domestic issues. Any move the polls, a clear run from parties supporting a to cut taxes for the better off, for example, would second referendum and the Brexit Party fielding probably not get through. Boris has already a candidate, a victory for Jo Swinson is widely promoted Mark Spencer to Chief Whip (unofficially predicted – reducing the Government’s working at the time of writing) – a pivotal role over the majority to 3. next few months.

Headland briefing | PRIORITIES OF A BORIS JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION | 02 WORKING WITH THE CIVIL SERVICE A clash of wills potentially looms: Brexiteers believe approach. Appointing ministers that will clearly the civil service is pro-EU, has been ‘gravel in the direct and hold the civil service machine to account wheels’ and will do all it can to prevent a no deal will be an early priority for the new PM. Relations Brexit – despite commitment from the new PM to could quickly sour and become toxic if we see deliver just that if he fails to get a new deal from regular leaks from ‘ sources’ on the impacts Brussels. of a no deal Brexit. Relations are not starting off on the best footing. Three decisions will signal the PM’s direction of Boris Johnson’s failure to publicly back Sir Kim travel: whether Sir Mark Sedwill (closely associated Darroch following the leak of his views on the US with ) survives as Cabinet Secretary administration caused alarm and consternation in (and National Security Advisor); who the new some parts of Whitehall. ambassador to the US will be – a career civil servant or a politician / businessman; and who Mending fences will need to be balanced by is appointed as the next Governor of the Bank ensuring the Cabinet Secretary and permanent of – Boris’ long term ally, economist secretaries are in-step with the Government’s new Gerard Lyons, is thought to be in the frame.

KEEP THE ROAD OPEN FOR 31 OCTOBER DEPARTURE The central message of Boris’ campaign during At this point, parliamentary roadblocks will need to the membership phase of the contest has been be negotiated. Prorogation is far-fetched and can steadfastness on the 31 October deadline – probably be cast aside. Legislation will be hard to “come what may”. latch on to as well – as in a no deal scenario, there will be no withdrawal bill. Securing time for a private If he holds to that, then he will either have to lower members bill through a Standing Order 24 debate his bar on the backstop and push through cosmetic has plausibility – but no precedent. But the boulder changes to May’s deal or, at some point in the most likely to get in the way is the nuclear option: autumn, change the Government’s policy to leaving a vote of confidence as a no deal Brexit looms. without one.

NEGOTIATE A NEW DEAL WITH BRUSSELS Pretty much top of the to-do list….and no picnic Team Johnson are reportedly considering several given the timescales involved and the gap between destinations with the ambition of breaking the the two sides. deadlock as quickly as possible. Given much of the disagreement lies with the backstop, expectations The EU’s position remains that the only deal are that Irish PM Leo Varadkar will be near top of available is the one already on the table. While it the list, along with Emmanuel Macron and Angela may be open to revisiting the political declaration, Merkel. the text of the Withdrawal Agreement itself is not, according to the EU, open to any change. But the It has also been widely speculated that Boris will new Prime Minister’s position is that the Withdrawal make an early trip to Washington to meet President Agreement is dead and the backstop has to go in Trump although sources have suggested this would its entirety. be after meeting key EU leaders.

PREPARE FOR NO DEAL No deal preparation under May was never a full- Expect it to move up the gears over the summer – blooded exercise. The political direction was both and to hear a lot about in the news. Already media set by a PM and senior politicians for whom it was are reporting plans for DExEU to morph into the an option they would never exercise. And their Ministry for No Deal. instructions were carried out by officials who knew For better or worse, leveraging the genuine threat that to be so. of leaving without a deal is a central part of the Boris Johnson strategy to get a better one.

Headland briefing | PRIORITIES OF A BORIS JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION | 03 MAKE SOME EARLY GAINS ON CAMPAIGN PLEDGES While Brexit will remain the only show in town We would expect early priorities to include: for the short term at least, Team Boris will be keen Supporting Rail; to show progress and leadership on the domestic • agenda. • Guaranteed funding for all primary and secondary schools; Throughout the campaign Boris Johnson made a series of specific pledges and signalled other • Increasing the NICs threshold to help those priorities and aspirations, pitching himself as a on lower incomes; one-nation, pro-business Tory. • Setting out a plan to tackle social care; • Money to begin an uplift in police numbers; and • Bringing forward the target date for 100% roll out of full fibre broadband to 2025.

PREPARE FOR A GENERAL ELECTION Plan A for Team Boris will be to successfully exit Who he appoints as his Party Chairman therefore the EU with a revised deal, and then go back to has more significance than it usually would – the country for a fresh electoral mandate. His team expect it to be a loyalist with James Cleverly well is seized by the need to lance the boil of Corbyn placed as the current deputy. That person can before the Labour leader’s own party does the deed expect to have a much more regular presence in itself. Moreover, the simple maths of his majority key meetings in Downing Street than the current means he has little choice. incumbent. Similarly, if his plan B of leaving without a deal is And if Boris can persuade him to come out of thwarted, an election comes sooner rather than semi-retirement, expect to play later as the only solution to the Parliamentary a key role in putting the party on an election footing blockage. If he manages to leave without a deal – as he did under Cameron, in the run up to the he may need to take longer to try to smooth the 2015 election. bumps in the road. In any scenario, a general election before the end of 2020 doesn’t look an outlandish bet.

Headland briefing | PRIORITIES OF A BORIS JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION | 04