December 2018 Perhaps the most challenging few weeks of Theresa May’s premiership and the endgame on the Brexit negotiations. This is the seventh update shedding light on what catches the eye in and around Westminster and its satellite community of advisers, think tanks and hangers on. Some of this may have been captured in the headlines and other stuff. Views my own but an acknowledgement that everyone is working hard in a challenging political environment and bad- tempered world….and one last thing, this can’t possibly be a Brexit-free zone. Lisa Hayley-Jones Director, Political and Business Relations BVCA May Makes History Given the last few turbulent weeks, Theresa May has amazingly now been in charge long enough to overtake former Liberal PM Henry Campbell-Bannerman’s record of two years and 120 days in Downing Street (1905-08). May is now only the fifth shortest-serving British PM since 1900, having already passed Andrew Bonar Law (1922-23), Alec Douglas-Home (1963-64) and Anthony Eden (1955-57). Her next target is to hang on until June 2019, so beating Gordon Brown’s record of two years and 318 days. Odds on this…..? Key Political Dates Over the past two weeks the Prime Minister has spent over 12 hours at the despatch box across three marathon House of Commons statements including two extended PMQs sessions and the liaison committee. This, together with her UK tour and the ongoing media campaign, means voters can’t fail to notice the PM pulling out all the stops to get this deal through. No 2018 General Election There cannot now be a general election this calendar year. 25 working days are needed between dissolving Parliament and holding this election. No 10 Brexit Deal Media Campaign Designed to make as much impact as possible before the vote on 11th December, here is the agenda outlined by No 10 to promote a different aspect of May’s exit package: December 4: Immigration December 5: Transport December 6: Industrial strategy December 7: Brexit for the whole U.K. December 8: Consumers December 10: Agriculture and fish Tuesday 11 December - The Meaningful Vote The Government has confirmed the dates on which Parliament will debate and vote on the draft Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. In a letter to Conservative MPs, Government Chief Whip Julian Smith has confirmed the 'Meaningful Vote' will be debated over five days on Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5th, Thursday 6th, Monday 10th and Tuesday 11th December. MPs will then vote at the conclusion of the debate on 11th December. The conditions for Parliamentary approval of the outcome of negotiations with the EU are set out under Section 13 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. In a written statement the Prime Minister confirmed that the first condition had been met, namely laying a copy of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration before both Houses of Parliament. The five days of debate and the vote on 11th December fulfils the second condition: "the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown". Both agreements will also need to be approved by a vote in the House of Lords. The final condition is legislating for the Withdrawal Agreement, which ministers have confirmed they will do. As we enter a critical phase of the Brexit process in Parliament the House of Commons Library has produced the following illustration of different ways the process could play out. This Insight sets out what we expect to happen in the coming days in the lead-up to the Commons’ “meaningful vote” on the deal. It also explains what to look out for once the Commons has taken its decision on 11 December. View Brexit Roadmap here Survey on TV Brexit Debate Latest Voting Intention Polling The latest YouGov/ Times voting intention survey sees 40% of Britons saying they would vote Conservative (unchanged from last week's survey) while 38% say they would back Labour (from 35%). Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 9% (from 10%) and votes for other parties stands at 13% (from 15%). When it comes to who would make the best Prime Minister, this week's poll shows 35% of people prefer Theresa May while 24% favour Jeremy Corbyn. A further 37% answered "not sure. Government Resignations and Appointments Resignations • Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab • Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey • Northern Ireland Minister Shailesh Vara • PPS to the Department for Exiting the European Union Suella Braverman • PPS to the Department for Education Anne-Marie Trevelyan • PPS to the Ministry of Justice Ranil Jayawardena • Vice-Chair of the Conservative Party Rehman Chishti • Transport Minister Jo Johnson • Downing Street's Director of Legislative Affairs Nikki Da Costa • Sports and Civil Society Minister Tracey Crouch • Universities Minister Sam Gyimah Appointments • Amber Rudd makes a swift return to Cabinet as the new Work and Pensions Secretary • Steve Barclay becomes the third Brexit Secretary • May loyalist Mims Davies replaces Crouch as the new Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport • Jesse Norman has been promoted (replacing Jo Johnson at Transport) • Norman was previously a junior minister in the department. • Andrew Jones MP takes Jesse’s previous position as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at Transport. • Stephen Hammond is new Minister of State at Department of Health and Social Care • Rising star Kwasi Kwarteng is the new DExEU Parliamentary Under Secretary of State • Nigel Adams MP is Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Wales Office and an Assistant Government Whip • Jeremy Quin MP is now a Government Whip (unpaid) • Gareth Johnson is Assistant Government Whip (unpaid but adds both to the Government payroll numbers) • Chris Skidmore has been appointed as the new universities and science minister. He was formerly a Conservative party vice president for policy. Average of resignations per days in office ration (so 1 every (x) days) • Theresa May: 106 days • Gordon Brown: 175 days • David Cameron: 281 days • Tony Blair: 371 days Source: BBC Research ** since drafting this May now overtakes Cameron ** No 10 Final Vote Board Downing Street has formed a special unit of senior advisers, based in the Cabinet Office, drawn up of senior advisers from Downing Street, officials in the Cabinet Office Europe unit who had worked for Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins, and aides from the Brexit department. The team given the name “Project Vote”. The Group is working closely with chief whip Julian Smith and a group of senior MPs. According to Whitehall officials, Project Vote has “already priced in” losing the meaningful vote in the Commons slated for 11th December. One serving cabinet minister has admitted privately they may not be able to vote for the deal, and a second has told friends they are thinking of resigning before the vote and an estimated 95 Conservative MPs have publicly declared they will vote for the withdrawal agreement. While the crack team is battling hard for the best result, it is accepted inside Number 10 that keeping the margin of defeat as low as possible may now be the priority. If May loses the meaningful vote by fewer than 100 MPs, government aides believe they are "still in the game" and have a chance of winning a second vote before Christmas. Lose by more than 100, and they fear the deficit would be insurmountable and the PM is in resignation territory. Despite May’s insistence that this is the final deal and that the EU would countenance no further negotiations, the unit has speculated that, in the event the government loses the first vote, the PM could go back to Brussels and secure some form of concession from the EU. Read Tim Hames 28 November Insight for further opinion. Business Councils In other non-Brexit news, the Prime Minister has announced 5 new business councils, including the Industrial, Infrastructure and Manufacturing Council. This council will be responsible for materials; aerospace; defence; advanced manufacturing; automotive, aviation, ports and rail; infrastructure, construction and housing; energy; and environmental services. Roger Carr (Chairman, BAE Systems) and Ian Davis (Chairman, Rolls Royce) will co-chair the Council and Stephen Phipson (CEO, EEF) will be the business group representative. Each council will meet three times a year, twice with the Prime Minister and once with a senior cabinet minister, to provide high-level advice and policy recommendations on the critical issues affecting business. The councils will also be a forum for the government to share developing policy ideas and seek the views of members. They will provide advice and policy recommendations on big business issues. Mrs May said she has asked these new councils to "advise us on the opportunities and challenges facing business as we shape the UK for the future". After two years of feeling they were "outside the tent" when it came to Brexit strategy and policy, Theresa May is welcoming as many business big hitters back inside as she can. Quite a change from her conference overtures in 2016. New breed of Ambassadors Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt recently announced Britain will hire business leaders instead of career civil servants as ambassadors after Brexit to boost the nation’s relations with the rest of the world. He set out plans to open up top diplomatic jobs to non-civil servants as part of a push to recruit "under-represented groups" to act on behalf of the UK on the global stage. The Foreign Secretary wants to shake up the state of the UK’s overseas diplomatic operations so that the nation is well-prepared to redefine its relationship with the rest of the world once Britain has left the European Union in March 2019.