D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

Table of contents:

FOREWORD...... 4 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 5 2. MEANING OF CONCEPTS USED ...... 6 3. BACKGROUND ...... 9 3.1 Key figures related to passengers transport in EU-27...... 9 3.2 Airports in Europe...... 12 4. EPATS CONCEPT...... 18 5. EPATS OBJECTIVES AND RATIONALE ...... 23 6. EPATS SYSTEM COMPONENTS...... 25 7. EPATS EFFECTIVENESS...... 26 7.1 Introduction...... 26 7.2 Time efficiency ...... 27 7.3 Energy efficiency ...... 29 7.4 Material efficiency ...... 34 7.5 Impact on environment measured by externalities costs...... 35 7.6 Car/Aircraft transportation properties comparison ...... 37 8. EPATS ACCESSIBILITY AND AFFORDABILITY...... 39 8.1 General overview ...... 39 8.2 Transport accessibility issues in Poland (as an example)...... 40 8.2.1 Surface transport...... 40 8.2.2 Air transport ...... 41 8.2.3 Air Flow analysis on interregional router of Poland...... 44 9. EPATS REFERENCE AIRCRAFT ...... 48 9.1 EPATS reference aircraft characteristics...... 48 9.2 Calculated DOC and current price of reference aircraft services ...... 52 9.3 EPATS and reference aircraft comparison ...... 53 10. EPATS DEMAND FORECASTING AND METHODOLOGY ...... 54 10.1 Scenarios...... 54 10.2 About Market research methodology...... 54 10.3 Generalized costs minimization method ...... 55 10.4 Global approach at the European level...... 57 10.5 Global approach at country level ...... 59 10.6 Approach at regional level (of an airport) ...... 59 10.7 Results of EPATS aircraft demand calculations...... 59 10.8 EPATS aircraft mission’s characteristics taken for calculation...... 61 11. EPATS VISION...... 63 12. EPATS AIRCRAFT MISSIONS AND REQUIREMENTS...... 72 13. EPATS BUSINESS ASPECT...... 76 13.1 Introduction...... 76 13.2 Strategies ...... 76 13.3 Services and target customers...... 77 13.4 EPATS organizational structure ...... 78 13.5 EPATS operational concept...... 79 13.6 Value proposition...... 81 13.7 EPATS aircraft production size and employment growth...... 81 13.8 EPATS productivity, time and value saved by European population in travel ....82 This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 2 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

13.9 Saved fuel ...... 83 13.10 Material saved ...... 83 13.11 Saved ground area ...... 84 13.12 Impact on environment...... 84 13.13 Financing ...... 85 13.14 Investments and benefits...... 87 14. EPATS DEVELOPMENT PHASES ...... 89 14.1 Issues area...... 89 14.2 Major investigation elements of the EPATS R&D vision...... 90 14.3 The key players and organizations...... 92 14.4 The key EU GA manufacturers...... 93 14.5 The EPATS development phases...... 94 14.5.1 Phase I Studies and analyses ...... 94 14.5.2 Phase II Research and development ...... 98 14.5.3 Phase III Experimental EPATS implementation...... 98 14.5.4 Phase IV The EPATS implementation – technologies development and deployment ...... 99 14.6 European Personal Aircraft Development Platform (EPADP)...... 102 14.7 The Road-map key questions...... 105 14.8 The output of EPATS implementation...... 106 15. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS...... 107 15.1 Conclusions related to European Business & Personal Aviation Data Base (WP1) 107 15.2 Conclusions related to Market potential of personal aviation (WP2) ...... 109 15.3 Conclusions related to ATM (WP3.1)...... 112 15.4 Conclusions related to airport (WP3.2)...... 114 15.5 Conclusions related to environment and safety (WP3.2.6) ...... 116 15.6 Conclusions related to Operating Cost Analysis (WP4.2) ...... 116 15.7 Conclusions related to Aircraft cockpit systems...... 117 15.8 Conclusions related to aircraft design ...... 118 15.9 Conclusions related to Business aspect...... 119 16. FINAL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...... 120 REFERENCES:...... 121

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FOREWORD

This report was elaborated on the basis of EPATS Study findings and particularly the deliverables: D1.1 Report on European Business& Personal Aviation Data Base D2.1 Potential transfer of passenger demand to personal aviation by 2020 D3.1 EPATS ATM General requirements & related issues to be solved D3.2 EPATS airports General requirements, safety and environmental aspects D4.1 EPATS aircraft missions specification D4.2 Operating Costs Analysis Report D4.3 Fuel consumption and transportation energy effectiveness Analysis Report D5.1 EPATS Research and Development Program

The relevant papers listed in the references were also studied.

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1. INTRODUCTION

The adjective „personal” means that some area of the European Air Transportation System is tailored to the personal needs, preference and resources of the population and is adapted to serve European & National Intercity low-density passenger flow, which cannot be profitably served by current Regional Airline or by High Speed Train.

EPATS is mainly an Air Service for European Small Communities

Most of the European regional air traffic still consists of turbo-propellers, with a 30-70 seating capacity. Typical examples of this type of aircraft are: Saab 340 (33-seater), ATR 42 (48-seater), Fokker 50 (50-seater) and ATR 72 (68-seater). Although they are mainly used for short-haul journeys, they cannot operate on a number of small local airports and be profitably used on the most of interregional routes where density of passenger flow is below 20 passengers per day. EPATS provides alternatives to long distance car trips and air travel – more frequent flights of small aircraft take off and land at small airports. In the summary of research: Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M. (1996): 'Trans-European Networks and Unequal Accessibility in Europe', we read: ”The Maastricht Treaty states that the trans-European networks (TETN) are to increase the economic and social cohesion of the European Union. However, all characteristics of this giant investment programme indicate that, in contrast to the objectives of the Treaty, their main purpose is to link the economic centres of Europe and so enhance the global competitiveness of Europe. It is therefore likely that the trans-European networks will increase rather than reduce the existing differences in accessibility and economic potential between the central and peripheral regions in Europe”. Comparison of accessibilities before and after the completion of the trans-European high-speed railway network confirms the above hypothesis (NECTAR results). The high-speed rail lines mainly benefit the large cities in the centre of Europe. The gains in accessibility of the central regions are much larger than those of the peripheral regions; the peripheral regions lose both in absolute and in relative terms. On the other hand, it is clear, that it is not realistic to reduce the existing differences in accessibility and economic potential between the central and peripheral regions in Europe only by building high-speed train and highways or developing hub & spoke network. So far there was no concept how to really reach the Maastricht objectives. The EPATS project is the first SSA proposal accepted by EC and realized under contract no. ASA6-CT-2006-044549-EPATS oriented to the objective concerning transportation cohesion of the European Union. EPATS gives the possibility to improve accessibility and leads to a reduction of regional disparities by new interregional transportation links. It will also help to break the gridlock at large commercial airports by diverting traffic to non-hub small airports and to decrease the ground traffic congestion.

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2. MEANING OF CONCEPTS USED

EUROPEAN – means that system encompasses whole Europe and rules of its implementation and operation will be agreed by European Union together with associated countries. System operation will be based on uniform air traffic management and control structure of the Single European Sky and will meet the requirements of European Aviation Safety Agency. Preparations of enabling implementation of EPATS management and control system are anticipated in realized European Project: Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) coordinated by EUROCONTROL. PERSONAL – means that certain part of air transport system will be adapted for needs of individuals or small groups of people, who are devoid of regular air links or have very high value of time and prefer quick, personalized door-to-door travel. Adapted means: - creating conditions for taking full advantage of air infrastructure: airfields, air space, ATM systems - Size and characteristics of aircraft shall be adapted to passenger flow and income level - creating new technologies enabling to multiply air flow while maintaining safety and environmental friendliness level AIR TRANSPORT SYSTEM – is a transport sub system. It includes airfields, ATM systems, aircraft and numerous organizations maintaining system operation. Current air transport system is dominated by large airports and airliners operated in radial HUBs net. Existing air taxi network limits its service for wealthiest clients or VIPs and does not play any significant role in passenger transport flow. Personal air transport system operates mainly from small airfields and currently unused air space, operating directly small point-to-point connections using small airplanes adapted to passenger flow and new air traffic regulations.

Country A Country B

HUB Regional Airport Small Airport

Hub & spoke Airline Network EPATS Network

Fig. 2-1 Airport network diagram AIRPORT. The term is used where the facility is licensed as such by the relevant government organization and is registered by ICAO and has ICAO code. LANDING FIELDS. The remaining landing facilities which do not have ICAO code. GENERAL AVIATION – General aviation refers to all flights others than military and airline flights. It covers a huge range of activities, both commercial and non-commercial, including private flying.

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GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT CS-23

EPATS Aircraft (Small Travel Aircraft)

All others GA & Aerial JAR-23 Normal & Commuter categories Work Aircraft (extended to jet driven, multiengine airplane, and with JAR-23 all categories supplementary requirements)

A i rc r a f t Single and multiengine Piston Private

Fractional Single and multiengine Turboprop Corporate Ownership Single and multiengine jet Public

Non Commercial transport Commercial Transport Part 91 Part 135

Individuals or corporate On demand passenger Scheduled passenger

O p e r a t i o n s operations services - Air-Taxi services - Commuter

Free Flight Travel from point to point in all weather conditions in time not more than 2 hours for the most of inter regional relations and not more than 4 hours for maximum range. Aircraft have to operate from local airports and serve all EU sub regions NUTS-3 (1150)

One day trips for individual or business travel and two flight dayly for scheduled passenger service on low density intercity traffic flow

Extra Scheduled passenger RANGE Short Medium Long Long services affordable for [km] 350 900 1500 >2000 the most of population.

M i s s i o n s Corporate and on Pistons demand taxi services

Turbo-props profitable for business travellers, Jets main extended rare

Fig. 2-2 EPATS system overview

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EUROPEAN PERSONAL AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM - EPATS

EUROPEAN Born and operated in Europe

INTERREGIONAL Links all European Regions (NUTS 2, NUTS 3)

INTERACTIVE Links all actors (Customers – Providers) in real time by network

DAYLY-ROUND-TRIP High-speed and point-to-point connection lead to high daily radius of action

AFFORDABLE Accessibility to small airports and low generalized cost trip make the system affordable

SAFE News aircraft, operational and air traffic management technologies makes the system safe.

PERSONALIZED Adjust aircraft fleet and operations to passengers flow and population personal needs

AIR – FREE-FLIGHT Automated Air Traffic Management in Single European Sky ATM environment (SESAR project)

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Fig. 2-3 EPATS concept clarification

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3. BACKGROUND

3.1 Key figures related to passengers transport in EU-27

Table 3-1 General data. EU-27 area 4,3 mln km2 Population 497 mln GDP per capita 28000

Countries 27 Regions NUTS2 (inhabitants: from 800000 to 3 mln ) 268 Regions NUTS3 (inhabitants: from 150000 to 800000 ) 1291

Number of airports 1270 Number of landing fields 1300

Number of car 215 mln (+5 mln/year) Number of commercial aircraft 5000 Number of GA aircraft – depends of the source From 36000 to 132000 !

Number of possible direct air connections between NUTS2 regions over 200 km away is 34000. Number of direct connections between NUTS3 regions reach 805000. Number of direct connections currently serviced by Airlines is about 5000. It is only 15% of expected connections between large NUTS2 regions and 0.6% between smaller NUTS3 regions above. Cars carry out most of all the connections, which are not serviced by aircraft. Europe’s population is estimated at 707 million, with 497 million people living in the European Union. The EU space is divided administratively by 268 regions NUTS-2 and 1291 sub regions NUTS-3. About 212 million people, or more than 29 per cent of Europe’s total population, live in the Continent's 500 larger cities with populations of more than 150 000 inhabitants. Table 3-2 Transportation work. Pax km by mode of transport and modal split for year 2006. Pax km Total Pax km above 200 km Share % in bln in bln Car 3736 786 21 Bus/coach 410 43 10 Rail conventional 300 128 42 High-speed rail 100 71 71 Air 400 400 100 Total 4946 1428 28

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Fig. 3-1 Modal split.

786 bln pax km (55%)

128 bln pas.km (9%)

71 bln pas.km (5%) 400 bln pas.km (28%) 43 bln p.k (2%)

Passengers flow density

Below, an example of payload-range capacity of EPATS aircraft is shown with daily passenger car flow from NUTS2 PL0B region (Pomorskie Gdańsk) to other UE regions in the background. As it can be seen on almost all connections, intensity of interregional car flow does not exceed 25 passengers per day and most is between 2 and 5.

Daily number of travellers EPATS Passenger-Distance Capability 20 18 16 ACP1 14 ACP2 12 ACP3 ACP4 10 ACP5 ACP6 8 ACP7 6 RPS PL 4 daily daily number of travellerss

Available Passenger Seats / Seats Passenger Available 2 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Distance [km] Fig. 3-2 EPATS Payload-Range Capacity against a background of passengers-ranges shifted from passenger car traffic from Polish Region NUTS2 PL0B (Pomorskie) to all others European Regions (source: ESPON).

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Fig. 3-3 Accessibility in Europe.

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The map below shows that where accessibility to high speed mode of transport is low, the car traffic is higher.

Fig. 3-4 Business traffic generated by car.

3.2 Airports in Europe

The EPATS concept of operations utilizes small aircraft for common corporate, business and personal transportation, for point-to-point direct travel between smaller regional, auxiliary and general aviation airports and between hubs and small airports. The EPATS would operate within the Single European Airspace System (SEAS) infrastructure, specifically among about 2000 public-use landing facilities. While scheduled air carriers serve just about 400 of these facilities, from which only 43 hubs handle 85% of the European air traffic and operates at the limits of their capacity. EPATS infrastructure advancements would significantly improve the capabilities of air carrier facilities as well. Airport infrastructure includes:  The landside (terminals, connectivity to other means of transport, passenger services, catering),  Airside (runway, taxiways and apron),  The navigation systems,  Landing systems infrastructure (ILS, PAPI/VASI, GPS based landing systems),  Runway and taxiway design and layout, including runway lighting system, signs, markings, runway crossings, location of exits.

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Services delivered at the airport which play a role in flight operations (and flight safety) include:  Aircraft servicing (parking, maintenance, repair),  Fuelling,  Anti-ice/de-icing service,  Emergency response and rescue service,  Cargo loading,  Bird and wildlife control,  Maintenance of runways/taxiways, runway and taxiway; runway friction measures,  Weather information provision.

Smaller and regional airports will probably not offer all services and means. They mostly have just one runway, one taxiway to and one taxiway from the runway connecting parking areas. Often an extra grass strip is present for glider and traditional general aviation.

The level of ATC services at smaller airports may differ. Some may be controlled airfields, others could be uncontrolled. Likewise, the availability and quality of systems and safety nets at ATC/Tower will vary across airports. This applies to Runway Incursion Alert Systems, Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control System (A-SMGCS), availability of Approach and Ground radar, beacons and Autoland systems. The lack of airport infrastructure and ATC services has to compensate by design and operation of smart avionics in the EPATS aircraft.

The EPATS architecture considers upgrading landing facilities to provide near-all-weather service and minimizing user uncertainty.

Table 3-3 Airports in Europe Europe’s Airports Number of Airports Total landing facilities 2126 Primary airports 450 Main Pas. Airports (Large and Medium-Hub) 43 Paved 1336 IFR 737 Runway length: >ca. 2500 m (8000 ft) 286 900 – 2500 m (3000  8000 ft) 891

Europe’s population is estimated at 707 million, with 379 million people living in the European Union, prior to its expansion in 2004. The EU area is divided administratively into 280 NUTS-2 level regions and 1300 NUTS-3 level regions. About 212 million people, or more than 29 per cent of Europe’s total population, live in the Continent's 500 larger cities with populations of more than 150 000 inhabitants.

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Fig. 3-5 Airport traffic in Europe. Source: ESPON By a simple comparison of the abovementioned numbers, it is visible, that there is at least one main airport in all regions and one or two small airports in all sub regions. They are not used, yet, and despite comparatively dense airport network, the regional airlines accessibility is very limited. It is shown by the following numbers: direct accessibility to all NUTS-2 regions require 78120 interregional connections, while there are actual 2000 of them, i.e. 2,5% of the potential connections. It is even worse in sub regions. There are more than 1000 airports that are significant to the European Personal Air Transportation System (EPATS) and thus eligible to receive public funds for infrastructure development projects, that will bring these airports up to current design standards and add capacity to congested airports. For desirable development of the EPATS, a similar to the US “National Plan of integrated Airports Systems” (NPIAS) and “Airport Improvement Program” (AIP) European plan and program should be prepared and implemented.

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Table 3-5 Number of Airports in Europe by number of passengers carried per year (Source: Eurostat, National sources)

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PRIMARY AIRPORTS IN EUROPE

Fig. 3-6 Main airports in Europe

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LANDING FACILITIES

FRANCE GERMANY POLAND

2 All landing facility: 454 per 10000 km2: 6,7 per 1mln inhabitants: 7,1 All landing facility: 434 per 10000 km : 12,1 per 1mln inhabitants: 5,2 All landing facility: 104 per 10000 km2: 3,22 per 1mln inhabitants: 2,7 2 2 Registered airports: 199 per 10000 km : 2,9 per 1mln inhabitants : 3,1 Registered airports: 154 per 10000 km : 4,3 per 1mln inhabitants : 1,9 Registered airports: 38 per 10000 km2 : 1,2 per 1mln inhabitants : 1,0 Primary airports Primary airports Primary airports Large and Medium Hub Large and Medium Hub Large and Medium Hub Point-to point connections above 200 km for registered airports: 16420 Point-to point connections above 200 km for registered airports: 9150 Point-to point connections above 200 km for registered airports: 472 Number of existing point-to- point connections: ~ 100?! Number of existing point-to- point connections: ~ 100?! Number of existing point-to- point connections: 12

Population: 63,5 mln Population: 82,0 mln Population: 38,5 mln 2 2 Surface: 675417 km Surface: 357000 km Surface: 322575 km2 NUTS-3 Regions: 98 NUTS-3 Regions: 360 NUTS-3 Regions: 46

Fig. 3-7 Landing facilities in Europe

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4. EPATS CONCEPT

The concept of the European Personal Air Transportation System (EPATS) is a concept of interactive transportation system, which adapts aircraft, flight routes and transportation services to personalized passenger needs. The concept is mainly based on:  Creating an Interactive Transportation System on the base of System Wide Information Management SWIM project (SESAR).  Using the already existing local and regional airports network (more than 2000), especially located on the periphery of European main transportation infrastructure, in the areas with low level of accessibility indicator (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 2).  Using a potential enabled by the opening of Single European Sky and conducted research in the area of management and air traffic control by e.g. SESAR.  Using new technologies concerning aerodynamics, materials, propulsion, communication, navigation and control based on satellite systems.  Adjusting aircraft fleet (optimization), operational structures and transportation management to local demand and interregional passengers flow.  Increasing economic efficiency of personal air transport by creating EPATS Transportation Management Centre (TMC) and a network of small carriers cooperating together.  Creating friendly legal and economic conditions, promoting unification, standardization and integration of maintenance networks.

The interactive system One of the main features of EPATS system conception is taking advantage of the internet network and introducing interactive air transport service ordering and tailoring it to planning and execution of business trajectory network described in D3 SESAR Chapter 2 The ATM Target Concept. The EPATS Interactive Transportation System will employ a Net-Centric method i.e. Participating as a part of a continuously-evolving, complex community of people, devices, information and services interconnected by a communication network to achieve optimal benefit of resources and better synchronization of events and their consequences. System functioning scheme is shown on the chart below. The EPATS Interactive Transportation System will employ a Net-Centric method defined as: Participating as a part of a continuously-evolving, complex community of people, devices, information and services interconnected by a communications network to achieve optimal benefit of resources and better synchronization of events and their consequences. (Source: Wikipedia). The EPATS Interactive Transportation System enables interaction between Users (passengers) and Providers (TMC) through an interactive network. This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 18 of 124

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This system connects a customer directly to the Regional Station of Transportation Management Centre TMC, which is the Provider and plans EPATS system service. Through the network a customer orders air transport from his origin to destination providing date and time of arrival, number of passengers and comfort class – determined by transportation time and ride quality as a derivative of value of time (wealth level). TMC, gathering orders from the airport greater circle population area, analyses all orders and adjusts to them the optimal aircraft type (the least generalized costs type), which may realize the order. The customer is informed about aircraft type, date and hour of flight departure and arrival, pick up time (when door-to-airport transport provided) and service price. Depending on the number of orders for a given connection, given day and hour, and passengers requirements the TMC offers adjusted services and appropriate aircraft. It could be a small, 4-seat aircraft with one passenger on board as well as a 19-seat airplane fully occupied. A flight may be ordered in various advance time. Earlier order allows to gather more passengers going to the same direction at the same time and, therefore, the ticket price could be lowered by using a larger aircraft (keeping load factor close to 100%). The system allows, also, for ordering on a very short time notice if a customer wishes to fly a small aircraft individually (similar to air-taxi) or if counts on empty seats in larger aircraft flying the same Business Trajectory. The system gains new capabilities and leads to higher productivity, higher accessibility and satisfaction of passengers. It enables adjusting connections, schedule time and aircraft type to personal needs, and makes possible to accommodate fleet to regional demand and better aircraft utilization, both in terms of flight hours yearly and load factor. In consequence the system contributes to more effective air traffic and fuel consumption and transportation costs per pax km reduction. The functions of EPATS Transportation Management Centre includes: - managing data-link with Regional Stations, - monitoring traffic, - collecting and recording data, - managing data in real time, - deriving statistics about performance of EPATS, - others to be defined. The figures 3-6 and 3-7 show the concept reality concerning European Airports infrastructure density. Regarding the system, aircraft and demand, the rationale is presented below and in the chapter 5. The challenge is to integrate all the partners of EPATS and create an Interactive Transportation Network in which a key role will play European Commission and Regional Authorities. Implementation of interactive internet network will bring several significant advantages: - Knowledge diffusion concerning small aircraft transport possibilities - Increases of share of people participating in air transport - Cheaper flights: fly one-way, pay for one-way only, similar to urban taxi cubs - Increases of EPATS energy and economy efficiency through better fleet allocation with multiplied annual volume and load factors closer to 100%. - Better use of airspace - Facilitates air traffic management and its monitoring - Increases regional accessibility levels and their more balanced development

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Fig. 4-2 The System Wide Information Management (SWIM) architecture of SESAR (source: SESAR).

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EPATS Organizational Structure Scheme

PROVIDERS REGIONAL EPATS CUSTOMERS SERVER INTERNET ACCESS SERVICES: - Scheduled flight Personal Business - Optimal On Demand Trajectory PBT fulfilling Aircraft (trade-off) - Optimal Air-Taxi - Aircraft Cards

OPERATORS - Business Trajectory Flight Plan - BT execution AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE

and Flight Operation Quality AIRPORTS

Airport Operations Center

APOC

ATM AIR NAVIGATION SERVICE PROVIDERS (ANSP) BT execution BT

IPATS TRANSPORTATION CENTER MANAGEMENT (ITCM) SERVER

SYSTEM WIDE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT – INTEROPERABILITY CENTER (IOP/ SWIM)

Fig. 4-3 EPATS organizational structure.

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5. EPATS OBJECTIVES AND RATIONALE

Key objectives:

 Providing high-speed, accessible and affordable mean of transport for remote European regions.

 Increasing daily range of activity for large amount of people.

The goal of the EPATS system is to fill the communication gap, which exists on interregional national and European destinations with underdeveloped transport network, located in a distance longer than 300 km, and where implementation of others modes of fast transport (high-speed rail, traditional airlines) is irrational due to too low flow density travel and where road transport is too disadvantageous in individual, social as well as ecological dimension. Another important objective of the EPATS is extending daily range (daily accessibility indicator) for intensive activity jobs, where people go to another place do their business for a few hours and return home. For most of the people, the daily radius of activity equals c.a. 200 km and is limited by the capabilities of a car travel. Only for limited number of connections (see the map below), thanks to fast and high frequency traffic of airlines, this radius may reach distances above 1000 km. If travelling by small piston aircraft the radius may be extended to 1200 km, but very light jet enables to reach all regions of Europe within one day trip. The implementation of scheduled traffic of small commuter aircraft on the links with low but regular traffic flow, enabling return trips within one day could also substantially improve daily accessibility between regions. The goal is to enable origin-destination travel between all European regions at speeds considerably higher than car speed at equivalent costs. Personal speed is a vital factor in the advancement of transportation capabilities, and, ultimately, the advancement of societies. Secondary effects of the EPATS are also crucial. The effects list includes creating conditions for revitalization of European general aviation, which has been for many years in deep crisis and has been more and more lagging behind the American equivalent. It is very probable to assume, that if there aren’t undertaken any adequate measures concerning small aviation as a solution of the escalating transportation problems in Europe, the invisible hand of market will bring the dynamically developing US Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) to Europe, which will gradually take over the existing transport niche. Consequently the European market will experience a massive inflow of American aircraft – dominating even today – and a monopoly may occur in an essential transportation subsystem with the ultimate failure of European general aviation industry on the World market.

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Fig. 5-1 Daily accessibility by air. (Source: ESPON)

Popularity of personal aviation will contribute to the desired constraint of motorization development. The negative effects of road transportation are reaching its climax. The effects concern mainly pollution, growing land use, depletion of resources and traffic hazards. The last, in case of air transport, are relatively less harmful. At the most global level, the objective of the EPATS is to reduce economic disparities substantially that exist locally, regionally and nationally in Europe. Such economic disparities result from the inequitable distribution of accessibility in constrained nodal and network based infrastructure. The European highway and hub&spoke are clear examples of such constrained infrastructures. The on- demand, point-to-point access capabilities of EPATS reduce these constraints.

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6. EPATS SYSTEM COMPONENTS

The European Personal Air Transportation System is a complex collection of systems, procedures, facilities, aircraft and people. They work together as one system to ensure safe and efficient operation. The system includes:  Network of all existing and future airports and airfields in Europe (satisfying the EPATS requirements – an EPATS-compliant airport meets a set of desired characteristics appropriate for the community’s transportation demand and requirements);  Pistons, turboprop and jet aircraft, having a capacity from 4 to 19-seats, fulfilling the requirements of enhanced FAR-23 or CS-23 and FAR 135 operating regulations, and performing EPATS missions specifications including economic, ecological and security efficiency;  Air traffic management and control systems adapted to intensified air traffic generated by the EPATS. They include: radio, TMU and TFM, weather, radar, navigation and en route sites;  Flight Service Station;  Internet-based passenger travel booking and demand optimisation, offering transport capacity adjusted to the demand at the lowest price/performance ratio;  Air carriers organizations including small regional airlines operating commuters, offering periodical transport, charter flights, as well as air-taxi companies doing on-demand service (Commercial operation, Corporate and Owner operated aircraft);  Aircraft maintenance & management companies;  Aircraft owners and users associations;  Aviation authorities;  Air Navigation Service Providers;  Flight training schools; and  Research centres. Moreover, the system surroundings include: public transport powers (adequate local government units), aviation authorities, air traffic managers, aviation schools, aviation industry with its research and development centres. System aims to operate in the public transport infrastructure framework.

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7. EPATS EFFECTIVENESS

7.1 Introduction In ACARE Strategic Research Agenda Efficient Air Transport is defined as: “the movement of aircraft, of all types, and their passengers, through European airports and sky, in a timely and economic manner, without undue constraints on their preferred flight trajectories (aircraft), journeys (passengers) or departure and arrival times” and the main Vision 2020 Goals are: three times more aircraft movements, punctuality (delays less than 15 min), time spent in airports – no more than 15 min, five-fold reduction in the average accidents rate. This definition of efficiency is limited to the Air Traffic Management level. At the air travel industry level efficiency is addressed to capital productivity and is measured in two ways: - The simplest measure is the average aggregate load factor of the airline. This can be taken to measure the approximate capital productivity of the airline aggregate load factor are defined as the percentage share of seats occupied per year in total aircraft seat capacity on route served by the carrier - A more adequate method is to evaluate efficiency by analyzing and comparing the outputs of the decision unit to its inputs. Each output and each input is assigned a weight and the ratio of weighted outputs to weighted inputs yields a global measure of efficiency in given environmental conditions. Outputs include total passengers transported and total passenger-kilometres. Inputs include total personnel, capacity, fleet, fuel and average stage length. At the route level, standard measures of efficiency are load factors and fares. Load factors express the efficiency in the use of aircraft on each route. Occupancy rates depend on the structure of the fleet (average size and age of planes), on the economies of scale, passenger flow density, stage length, and on policy and market influences shaping the efficiency of carriers. The efficiency in the use of airline capital increase with average aircraft size and the size of market. That explains the reasons behind the Hub & Spoke system and large airliners development at the expense of direct point-to-point connections and low passengers flow small aircraft service. In case of the European Union and Member States, the efficiency of air transport cannot be limited to the efficiency level of air traffic management and airlines profitability. Such an evaluation must include the social objectives of the air transport in the considerations. The objectives, which were formulated in numerous documents concerning the European Union transport policy. The documents especially name the following aspects: coherent and sustainable transport development, limiting car transport dynamics in favour of the more environmentally friendly modes, increasing accessibility of regions remote form the main communication channels, increasing daily radius of activity. In this context, at the country level, natural measures of efficiency of transport are: - door-to-door time of travel (Origin-Destination) (as an effect of mode speed, network accessibility, traffic management); - energy use (fuel) on the scale of system (needed to generate one unit of transport volume (passenger-kilometre) in certain conditions); - material use (for a unit of transport); - impact on environment - external costs (for a unit of transport); - a passenger-kilometre cost including user costs and external costs (taxpayer). This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 26 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

7.2 Time efficiency We consider a time effective mode of transport, appropriate for certain groups of population if time of travel is the shortest among other modes. We call time saved by one traveller in terms of O-D travel realization a unitary time efficiency of transport system “m” for “i to j” itinerary in comparison to other available transport systems. Travel time consists of unproductive transport time (including node access, waiting for transport and compulsory rest during travel) and efficient time used for business trip objectives. For this analysis, we assume typical business trips start during morning hours and trip objectives realization lasts 6 hours, because trip objectives and their time of realization may vary. Global time efficiency of a new transport system introduction to “i to j” itinerary is measured by aggregating time savings of all passengers travelling using those itineraries per a unit of time (assumed 1 year). Thus, the efficiency depends on which itinerary the system is introduced to and what the flow of passengers is. The transport time between all regional (16 NUTS-2) capitals using all available modes (except for coach) of transportation and hypothetical EPATS aircraft were analyzed to estimate time efficiency of the EPATS. The time data came from train and air transport schedule and the Michelin internet website (http://www.viamichelin.com) for car travel. The least time consuming mode was found for every itinerary (examples: Image 4, 5). Potential average time saving generated by EPATS introduction for every itinerary was calculated (image 8).

Fig. 7-1 Least time modes on itineraries Fig. 7-2 Least time modes on itineraries originating from Rzeszów. originating from Opole.

Fig. 7-3 Share of the least time consuming Fig. 7-4 Share of the least time consuming modes modes among all regions. among all regions if the EPATS is working.

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Fig. 7-5 Average time saved during one business trip from one region of Poland to all of the rest after EPATS implementation.

The time saved due to EPATS introduction was calculated using Polish Institute of Tourism (http://www.intur.com.pl/) data concerning number of business trips in Poland.

Fig. 7-6 Distribution of trips in Poland. (Source: Polish Tourism Institute Data)

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Table 7-1 Participation of Poles in domestic trips (Source: Polish Tourism Institute Data)

The global time efficiency of EPATS system in Poland is 30 million hours per year with an average of 10 hours on one business trip and number of business trips of 3 million per year.

7.3 Energy efficiency The words "energy efficiency" are in common use qualitatively, but are difficult to define or even to conceptualize. An engineer may define energy efficiency in a very restrictive equipment sense, whereas an environmentalist may have a more broad view of energy efficiency. Increases in energy efficiency take place when either energy inputs are reduced for a given level of service or there are increased or enhanced services for a given amount of energy inputs. Energy use in the transportation sector is primarily for passenger travel and freight movements and is measured as Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC). The energy input is fuel consumption the given service is passenger transportation from origin to destination in given time and conditions. There are the following units of fuel consumption in aviation: consumption per hour, per kilometre, per passenger-kilometre, per one unit of effective power measured as product of transported volume (number of passengers) and speed. Fuel consumption and values of these units depend on conditions and their level of reference. There are reference levels as the following: - Aircraft technical level, at which different conditions of fuel consumption may be distinguished, especially: consumption in terms of speed and altitude, in terms of the longest range speed, in terms of a standard mission realization (according to requirements), etc. These values are determined by calculations and research and belong to the set of aircraft characteristics given in the operation instructions.

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- Air transport subsystem level including aircraft of a given carrier, airports, air network and air traffic management. Average fuel consumption is calculated in real conditions and on real routes at this level. The calculation includes all factors, also waiting, taxiing, and air manoeuvring, load factor, network geometry, etc. - Air transport system level includes aircraft of all carriers and all airports, air network and air traffic management. Fuel consumption is statistically determined and includes air fleet as well as ground facilities and land transport. - Transport system level includes additionally fuel consumption in access/egress travel, airport logistics. An example of fuel consumption comparison between levels of air and car transport systems is given at the graph below.

Fig. 7-7 Specific Fuel Consumption (car and aircraft).

A substantial difference between car and aircraft in fuel consumption is shown at the graph by comparing a car to ATR-42 of Polish regional EuroLOT air lines. Statistical fuels consumption per unit of this aircraft in real conditions of use on the route of 300 km is about 7litres/100 pas-km, while this value in standard conditions at the cruise speed is two times lower reaching 3litres/100 pas-km. It confirms the wide gap between aircraft characteristics and those being reached in the actual system. It is corresponding to fuel consumption as well as speed.

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Fig. 7-8 ATR 42 Specific Fuel Consumption. The main factors increasing fuel consumption in air transport are as the following: empty seats, start and land waiting, route distances due to network geometry, ATC ordered route change, etc. The heavier use of airspace and airport, the larger the losses. Expansion of airports network and airspace system management improvement leads to substantial decrease in fuel consumption of air transport. The similar effect is generated by adjusting network to O-D direction of travel and aircraft size simultaneously to passenger flow intensity.

Specific fuel consumption comparison Specific Fuel consumption comparison Full seats occupied (Average load factor accounted) 14 18 16 12 14 10 12 8 10

6 8 6 4 Cirrus SR20 Cirus SR20

TBM700 pas.km] [l/100 SFC 4 TBM700 SFC [l/100 pas.km] [l/100 SFC Cessna CJ1 2 ATR 42-500 2 Cessna CJ1 ATR 42-500 328 Jet 0 0 Car Toyota Avensis 328 jet 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Car Toyota Avensis Distances [km] Distances [km]

Fig. 7-9 Specific Fuel Consumption (full and average seats occupied).

Comparing fuel consumption of different aircraft per unit in standard conditions in terms of route distance is shown at the graphs above. Fuel consumption per unit of small aircraft like 4-seater Cirrus at the speed of 300 km/h, at with all seats occupied, on distances up to 800 km is similar to fuel consumption per unit of ATR-42 at the cruise speed of 350 km/h. Smaller aircraft is better in terms of real statistical load factor. Faster 8-seater TBM 700 consumes 40% more fuel, but 6-seater Cessna CJ1 consumes 2,5 times more. This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 31 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

Car fuel consumption is c.a. 50% higher than 4-seater aircraft assuming statistical occupancy 1,2 per car and fuel consumption per 1 passenger reaching 6,6 liter/100 km on average. A car turns to be more efficient not until it is full of passengers, when its fuel consumption reaches 2liters/100 pas-km and is smaller than the one of an aircraft. It is crucial to understand, that comparison of fuel consumption per unit of transport (passenger x kilometre) between two vehicles of vastly different speeds leads to misconceptions. According to the definition of energy efficiency of a mode of transport, the energy used for realization of transport should be referred to energy necessary for this transport realization, i.e. in terms of 1 pax km/time or pax speed. In reality even with full occupancy, car efficiency of fuel consumption is substantially lower than aircraft. At average speed of 80 km/h, fuel consumption per 1 pax km/h is 0,025 liter/pax km/hour, when an aircraft, at the speed of 300km/h is 0,01 liter/pax km/h, respectively. It is like that because of two, main reasons. Demand for power of car in terms of speed is higher than aircraft because of higher impediment, energy losses while running idle and often breaking and accelerating. Together they constitute a large portion of energy demand. The graphs below show it clearly.

car aircraft

Fig. 7-10 Power comparison (car and aircraft).

The differences in energy efficiency of car and air transport will be deepening in favor of air transport. Assuming vehicle drives of both transport modes develop at the same rate and become more and more efficient and ecologically perfect, the differences will deepen due to changes in

This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 32 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0 energy demand. Energy losses of car transport related to road traffic, car mobility impedance and as well as load factor will not change significantly and tendencies may become disadvantageous because of congestion. There are still large reserves of aircraft energy demand in case of air transport. They may be found at the technical level – by increasing aerodynamic characteristics and better material and technology use causing aircraft weight decrease, as well as by better fit to airport network and new systems of air traffic management implementation at the system level. It is estimated that energy demand in EPATS may be decreased by 30% per unit in comparison to the situation in aviation nowadays. It is worth mentioning, that air transport development policy focusing on hub&spoke system, adequate for high passenger traffic flow serviced by large aircraft does not favor energy efficiency. This is supported by a large difference between fuel use per unit at the aircraft and at the system level. In transport policy, energy efficiency should have the highest priority. It has direct impact on fuel resources depletion, air pollution and transport costs. Although air network and air traffic management efficiency is harder to measure, it should be measured by energy losses apart from delay indicator. Since 1970 the specific fuel consumption of the European passenger fleet has already been limited by 70%. It is intended that this trend should continue. There are a lot of opportunities for reducing further specific fuel consumption - i.e. the amount of fuel necessary to transport one passenger over a certain distance in a given time. Further reductions in the specific fuel consumption of aircraft can be achieved not only through advanced engines, improving aircraft aerodynamics, lighter materials, replacing heavy system components with lighter ones, but also by improving ATM – ATC technology, using direct link between nearest local airports and operating the most accommodated capacity of aircraft fleet. Energy consumption statistics for modern civil aircraft show that air travel is not only a fast but also a fuel-efficient form of transport. The specific fuel consumption of some airliners at cruising speed is now below 3,5 litres of kerosene per 100 passenger-kilometre. On average, for a long-distance journey, a mean class car with average consumption 8 litres per 100 km and average occupancy 1,3 persons per car will have a specific fuel consumption of 6,15 litres per 100 passenger-km. According to these figures, long-distance car travel requires a higher specific fuel quantity of 25 % more than a propeller aircraft. Not until a minimum of three people are travelling in one car, it does consume less fuel per capita than an aircraft. Even then, the time, cost and accessibility factors in reaching many destinations are points in favor of air travel. At one time extraction costs and availability of aviation fuel had little impact on the evolution of the air transportation industry. Today, fuel conservation in aviation is one of the most critical concerns to air transportation By the early 1970s it had become increasingly evident that the era of plentiful, inexpensive petroleum-based fuel was ending. The fuel cost was becoming more significant in air transport economies. The forecast of jet fuel prices on the current dollars scale are expected to follow the trends of the previous years, indicating a four percent increase per year over 12 years. In order to achieve improved system efficiency a key requirement is an improved capability to accommodate fuel efficient aircraft operations. The ideal aircraft would be economical to buy, maintain, have a high cruising speed, short take-off and landing distance, long range (adequate to demand), and be fuel efficient. It’s highly unlikely for an aircraft to have all of these characteristics but it is possible to retain the most important for the

This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 33 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0 market. The goal in aircraft design is to achieve a rational balance between vehicle performance and affordability.

7.4 Material efficiency Material efficiency of transport mode at the vehicle level is understood as a degree of use of materials of which the vehicle was constructed for transport. We assume that its measure is a ratio of the vehicle useful weight to its total weight. At the transport system level we assume that it is construction material weight needed for transport of 1 passenger-kilometre measured in full time of vehicle use in kg/pax km. Material efficiency was measured basing on statistical data for aircraft above 1300 and below 28 000kg and for average car of 1700kg. The following assumptions were taken: - period of aircraft utilization: 20 years, of car: 10 years; - hours yearly: 600 h for up-to-9-seaters performing air-taxi and charter, 1800 h for larger than 10-seaters serving air connections; - given block speeds listed in aircraft characteristics; - occupancy: for all aircraft 0,65, for car 0,3; - car amortization period – 10 years, average distance yearly – 10 000 km.

Aircraft and car Weight effectiveness

0,5 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 Car 0,15 0,1 Useful weight/TOweight 0,05 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Take off Weight [lbs]

Fig. 7-11 Weight efficiency.

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Aircraft and car Material effectiveness 0,3 Yearly flight time 600 h Yearly flight time 1800 h Wykł. (Yearly flight time 1800 h) 0,25 Car materials effectiveness:

0,2 Aircraft Ef car = 10 kg/1000 pas.km seatings < 10 0,15

kg/1000 pas.km kg/1000 0,1 Aircraft seatings > 10 0,05

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Seatings

Fig. 7-12 Material efficiency.

Material efficiency was calculated as the following: vehicle construction weight Efficiency = period of utilization x hours yearly x block speed x seats x load factor The difference between smaller and larger aircraft in terms of material efficiency is generated by different number of hours yearly, which is caused by their operation scheme. Small aircraft are mainly used as air-taxi, larger – for regular air transport service. Average absolute value: 0,14 for small, 0,025kg per 1000 pax km for larger. The differences are relatively small and insignificant if we are to compare them to car value at the level of 10 per 1000 pax km. It is clearly visible how advantageous may passenger air transport be in terms of Earth’s natural resources use if we also include in evaluation, land use for highways and parking, infrastructure maintenance apart from material efficiency.

7.5 Impact on environment measured by externalities costs

The impact of air transportation on environment is carried out through costs externalities evaluation. The sources of data presented in table below are: 1. “The Social Costs of Intercity Passenger Transportation: A Review and Comparison of Air and Highway” by David M. Levinson. 2. Efficient Vehicles Versus Efficient Transportation - Comparing Transportation Energy Conservation Strategies By Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute 6 May 2005. 3. “Sector Operation Program. Transport for years 2004-2006”. Polish Infrastructure Ministry. 4. Values assumed for the airplanes are based on the comparative analyses, taking mainly into account the difference in: fatalities rate and crash externalities, traffic congestion, street parking, local air pollution, roadway costs and traffic services.

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Two main systems domains identified as major contributors to air pollution: - The Management of Aircraft Energy- fuel consumption - The Management of Trajectories and Mission Flying from point to point with better possibility to accommodate aircraft category to missions, EPATS will contributes to green and affordable challenge. Table 7-2 Externalities of transportation.

EXTERNAL COSTS OF TRANSPORTATION in US dollars per passengers kilometers travelled average Car 1 Car 2 2 3 4 Vehicles Aircraft Car EPATS $/vkt $/pkt * $/vkt $/pkt $/pkt $/pkt $/pkm Vehicle ownership 0,15 0,1

Vehicle operation 0,09 0,06 Off-street parking 0,036 0,024 costs Users Users Users costs 0,276 0,184 tbd 0,3 tbd Traffic congestion 0,03 0,0200 0,0069 0,0046 0,0017 0,0005

Local air pollution 0,024 0,0160 0,0056 0,003733 0,0009 0,0003 Crash externalities 0,024 0,0160 0,03 0,02 0,0005 0,001 Fuel externalities 0,024 0,0160 Roadway costs 0,01 0,0067 Traffic services 0,007 0,0047 Externalities Barrier effect 0,007 0,0047 Noise pollution 0,0065 0,0043 0,0068 0,004533 0,0043 0,002 Total externalities 0,1325 0,0883 0,0493 0,032867 0,0074 0,06 0,0038  2004 Dollar per passenger kilometre travelled assuming 1,5 passengers by car Data taken into account in further analysis

Car-Aircraft externalities costs comparison

0,0250 Car Aircraft 0,0200

0,0150

$/pas.km 0,0100

0,0050

0,0000

Barrier effect Noise pollution Local air pollution Fuel externalities Roadway costs Traffic services Traffic congestion Crash externalities Externalities categories

Fig. 7-13 Externalities comparison (car and aircraft)

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7.6 Car/Aircraft transportation properties comparison Transportation Properties Comparison of 5 Seats Car and 5 Seats Personal Aircraft on Travel above 200 km in Polish Conditions* Table 7-3 Comparison of car and aircraft

Properties Units

Empty vehicle weight kg 1 300 800 1 500 1 Average travel speed km/h 70 300 600 Average effective fuel consumption l/100km 9 14 40 per 100 km 2 Average fuel consumption per

Technical l/pas/km 6,4 5 14 pax km 3 Operational life year 15 20 25

Fatalities rate [number of fatalities 1/100mln 0,460 0,055 0,045 ety Saf per 100 mln pax km] pax km 4 4 4 Vehicle price USD 25 000 50 000 400 000 Vehicle-kilometre cost $/veh.km 0,4 0,6 0,9 Passenger-kilometre cost3 $/pax km 0,3 0,2 0,3 Economic External costs5 $/pax km 0,06 0,01 0,01

Time of training to achieve the skill to control of vehicle on the level hours 25 50 50 necessary to individual trips

Drive accessibility: in % of adult Training % 80 50 40

Accessibility population able to drive the vehicle

Personal Dominant operational mode aero-taxi, charter transport Operational availability: annual number of trips realized as % of % 98 80 90 planned trips Average distance to the vehicle km 0 20 20 parking area 6 Stress level in a 10 degree scale 7 degree 9 6 7 others (10-no stress) Daily radius of action8 km 150 600 1400 Time of a business trip on the 500 hours 60 12 8 km distance9 Number of vehicles needed to 10 number 60 000 1 900 680 Operational and realize 1 bln pax km Additional ground area, occupied by No additional area is roads and parkings, needed to ha 81 000 needed, under-used realize transport work of 1 bln pax airports will be used km 11 Saved pas. time on 1 bln pax km hours 0 9,7 mln 11,4 mln

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Comments

*The properties were given with assumption that the vehicles produced in future will be based on high level technologies. The technical data are based on the medium cars and road properties, and on the existing advanced airplanes (Cirrus, Manager, Eclipse, Mustang), taking into account their further upgrading, as an expected result of planned research and development works. Some of the presented values have a reference nature and are given mainly for appraising differentiation between transport modes. More detailed comparisons studies are foreseen. 1. Average travel speed is the ratio of travel time from origin to destination to the distance measured in straight line. 2. Average effective fuel consumption is the ratio of utilized fuel quantity to the distance from origin to destination measured in straight line. 3. The rate of utilized seats is assumed to be: 1,4 for car, 2,8 for propeller-driven aircraft and 3 for jet aircraft (the differences result from different operational mode). 4. For the aeroplane the price are given in the conditions of large series (similar to cars production), counting dozens or ten or so thousands of exemplars and is calculated according to “Learning curve” taking as basis current price of Cirrus and Eclipse External costs reflect the detrimental influence of transport on the environment. 5. The values for car are taken from the document of the Polish Infrastructure Ministry titled. „Sector Operation Program. Transport for years 2004-2006”. Values assumed for the aeroplanes are based on the comparative analyses, taking mainly into account the difference in: fatalities rate and crash externalities, traffic congestion, street parking, local air pollution, roadway costs and traffic services. 6. There are 61 registered airports in Poland. The distance to the airport does not exceed 15 km for 70 % of population and 30 km for 90 %. Together with existing landing fields in Poland there are 220 places to take off and landing of aeroplanes that can be used in Small Aircraft Transportation System. 7. The level of stress depends mainly on the subjective safety feeling. The level of stress should be to equalize in due time. 8. It is assumed that the trip time is not longer than two hours in both sides. 9. It is assumed about 4 hours to handle business and not more than 12 hours of work daily (including the trip). 10. It is assumed: an annual mileage for the car is – 12 000 km; an annual flying time for the aeroplanes is – 700 hours. For illustrating of the taken transport work unit: [bln pax km], passenger transport work in Poland is 200 bln pax km annually, 63% of that is the car transport and 3% is the air transport. In the European Union respectively: 5 175 bln pax km and 80% by car and 5 % by air. 11. It is assumed that the daily traffic amount is – 14 000 cars. Data taken based on the Polish Transport and Marine Economy Ministry. titled „Transport Infrastructure Development Plan in Poland to 2015”.

Conclusions Comparison of the car and personal aircraft transport properties presented above indicates clearly the potential effectiveness of a substitution of the long distance car trips by the small personal airplanes and it shows, that it is rationale to fill existing niche between the ground and the scheduled air transport by Personal Air Transportation System.

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8. EPATS ACCESSIBILITY AND AFFORDABILITY

8.1 General overview We consider the mode of transport as accessible if the distance to the airport or station is less than 1 hour. We consider the mode of transport as affordable if the cost of travel does not exceed the cost of travel by car + time value and accommodation costs for a distance of 1000 km in one way. For these assumptions we evaluate the affordability and accessibility of current high speed mode of transport and EPATS 2020.

Fig. 8-1 Affordability and accessibility evaluation Average Affordability Accessibility High speed mode of costs - population - population transport Euro/pax km share share Car 0,35 0,65 1 High speed train 0,2 0,75 0,15 Regional Airlines 0,3 0,7 0,25

mode Air taxi - propeller 0,8 0,01 0,55 Current Current Air taxi - jet 2 0,001 0,4

Turboprop- 10 seats 0,3 0,7 0,7 Turboprop 19 seats 0,25 0,7 0,7 Air taxi - propeller 0,4 0,5 0,8

EPATS 2020 EPATS Air taxi - jet 0,9 0,01 0,7

Affordability and Accessibility of current high speed mode of transport in EU-25

1 Accessibility 0,9 Affordability 0,8 0,7 0,6 Population share 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Car High speed Regional Air taxi - Air taxi - jet train Airlines propeller Mode of transport

Fig. 8-1 Current high-speed mode affordability and accessibility

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Affordability and accessibility to EPATS 2020

0,8 Accessibility Affordability 0,7

0,6

0,5

Population share 0,4

0,3

0,2

0,1

0 Turboprop- 10 Turboprop 19 Air taxi - propeller Air taxi - jet seats seats EPATS aircraft

Fig. 8-2 EPATS 2020 high-speed mode affordability and accessibility

8.2 Transport accessibility issues in Poland (as an example)

8.2.1 Surface transport

The objectives of the EU Commission transport policy are expressed in the White Paper and they are reflected in Polish National Development Strategy 2007-13, which strategic objective is creating conditions of regional competitiveness growth and counteracting marginalization of some areas to promote long-term economic development, cohesion and integration within the EU. It means, in practice, equal access to intellectual and economic goods and possibility to participate in their creation. It is definitely tailored to securing equal access to the network of hi-speed modes of transport. According to Spiekermann the differences in accessibility in Europe widen. Similar situation occurs in Poland. Main channels, both surface and air, are modernized and improved, while remote regions communication networks degenerate. Inefficient bus and rail connections are eliminated and airlines in the search for passengers to fill their large planes withdraw from smaller airports more and more often. Nearly total passenger inbound and outbound traffic in these regions is done by cars. The image 9 shows clearly that the long distance trips are done by car in these regions, where accessibility indicators are the lowest. This causes further, intense development of motorization and deepening of all involved negative impacts – road congestion, pollution, land use by more and more roads and motorways, increasing taxpayer burden of social costs, etc. – and however cars are getting more and more perfect, the average travelling speeds have remained on the same level of 65 km/h for dozens of years in most of the European countries. Still, motorization dynamics in Poland is high and close to GDP growth, which reaches the level of about 4%. Number of cars on 1000 inhabitants equals about 300. The correlation between number of cars and GDP level per capita in Poland is higher than for European average (0,3 cars per 6000 Euro per capita in comparison to 0,45 cars per 18 000 Euro per capita) and for respective regions of Poland is nearly the same. The average car- kilometres done are not intrinsically far from the European average and equal respectively 10 000 km/car and 12 000 km/car. This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 40 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

Fig. 8-3 Potential accessibility multimodal Fig. 8-4 Airports in Poland and available air ESPON connections Correlation of GDP to the number of cars per one inhabitant

40000

35000

30000

25000 GPD PLN/inhabitant

Number of cars per 100 thousand inhabitants 20000

Wykł. (Number of cars per 100 thousand 15000 inhabitants) thousand inhabitants 10000

5000

PLN/inhabitant, per Number100 of cars 0

Słąskie Łódzkie Lubuskie Opolskie Lubelskie Pomorskie Podlaskie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Dolnośląskie Podkarpackie Wielokopolskie Swiętokrzyskie

Zachodnio-Pomorskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Warminsko-Mazowieckie NUTS-2 regions

Fig. 8-5 GDP and number of cars per capita correlation

8.2.2 Air transport

The situation is completely different in air transport. In Member States of the old EU, the number of trips done by air per annum is about 1, while in Poland only 0,3. This relation is corresponding to the relation between countries according to GDP per capita and it confirms the general assumption, that the number of air trips grows together with GDP and it is highly correlated to it. Thus air trip forecast on a global scale relies on GDP forecasts mainly. While on a regional scale, the correlation

This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 41 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0 of the two variables: GDP and number of air trips is different for the old EU as well as for the new Member States. The ESPON project maps showing correlation between GDP and air accessibility in the EU depict the situation. The tendency of economic and social differences is explained by the weaker correlation on a regional level. In case of Poland the weak correlation between GDP and number of air trips per capita between NUTS-2 regions is shown on the Image 4.

Correlation of GDP to the number of trips per one inhabitant

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000 GPD PLN/inhabitant Number of cars per 100 thousand inhabitants 40000

30000 thousand inhabitants

20000

10000

PLN/inhabitant, per Number 100 of cars 0

Słąskie Łódzkie Lubuskie Opolskie Podlaskie Lubelskie Pomorskie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Dolnośląskie Podkarpackie Wielokopolskie Swiętokrzyskie

Zachodnio-Pomorskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Warminsko-Mazowieckie NUTS-2 regions

Fig. 8-6 GDP and number of trips per capita correlation

Total national air transport is focused on connections between main regional airports and one central airport in Poland (hub&spoke system).Regional air transport equals about 1 million passengers per annum, what constitutes nearly 10% of the realized international air transport. According to the Polish Civil Aviation Office, the number of air passengers will constantly escalate, from the level of 14,5 mln in 2008, reaching 39,3 mln in 2020, which will be caused by the constructing of a new central airport and developing regional airports mainly. In the regional traffic, the existing plans do not consider significant changes of the air transport network. The network and the average regional passenger flow per annum are shown in Table 8-2 and Fig. 8-7 (Polish airports map). The network is characterized by direct connections between more important NUTS-2 regions and the capital city and the lack of other connections. The smallest flow of passengers equals 16 000 per annum, what means 60 passengers a day. It is nearly unprofitable taking under consideration operation costs of ATR 42. There are 130 airports in Poland currently, including 12 main airports and 41 local airports including 36 aero club airfields, 4 industrial and 1 private. The rest generally consists of unused former military airfields. There are several airports in each of NUTS-2 regions and at least one airport in each of the NUTS-3 regions. Only central airport in Warsaw operating for 11 mln of passengers is fully used. Complete lack of or weak utilization of air transport in most of the regions in comparison to Mazowiecki region is caused by the monopoly of the hub&spoke network and lack of direct interregional connections. More and more regions make efforts to introduce air transport in their region. Furthermore, a verbal support of central government is often provided.

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Table 8-2 Air mobility in Poland

In the governmental civil aviation strategy we read “Civil aviation strategy will be supplemented by small, local airports data, whose development should be also a part of the whole system. They cannot use 400 mln Euro funding anticipated in sector program, but they have access to structural funds.” Yet, the problem is that one must secure future carriers efficient business scheme apart from infrastructure investment funds. Such a guarantee cannot be provided, because of relatively low air traffic flow, existing fleet of regional airplanes structure and restrictions of public funding for transport. A good reconnaissance of passenger flow and directions is required prior initiating air transport in a region with adequate airport. Adequate research and mobility and socioeconomic studies are to be done to acquire this knowledge followed by adjusting the structure of airplane fleet and carriers organization. Experiences and analyses so far indicate that there where passenger flow is lower than 100 000 yearly, an airport cannot be profitable and to function properly must be supported by public funds. There must be a flow more than 60 passengers a day to accept opening a new connection by a carrier. In Poland and in most of the European interregional (280 NUTS-2 or 1280 NUTS-3) connection, the abovementioned conditions aren’t fulfilled. In most of the cases potential flow of passengers using air transport would not reach the required level, but the average of a few up to 20 passengers a day. However taking under consideration the multitude of travelling directions, the air traffic at airports possibly would cross the level of 100 000 passengers.

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Fig. 8-7 Relation between the number of air travels and GDP per capita PKB according to NUTS -2

The sustainable air travels per 1000 of inhabitants are shown on the Graph 5 and mean that they were calculated assuming balance between number of air trips and GDP per capita. The occurring differences from this rule are the effect of introducing an additional parameter increasing attracting force of a given region GDP.

8.2.3 Air Flow analysis on interregional router of Poland.

Calculations of potential flow of passengers between NUTS-2 regions were done basing on the socioeconomic data from 16 Polish NUTS-2 regions and the effects of operating of regional air transport in 2005. Calculations were done with the following assumptions: . Number of interregional air trips generated by a given region is proportional to created GDP, and the value of this relation is equal to the relation between average national number of air trips and average GDP . Income distribution (Lorenz-Pareto curve) is similar for all regions . Other factors are important while generating number of air trips apart from the weight of GDP like attracting force of the capital city, higher education institutions, culture, tourism, location of important institutions, etc. These factors were considered by introducing additional parameters enforcing attraction of GDP and they were estimated basing on the analysis of status quo.

The interregional traveller flow calculations were done using the gravity model, which assumes the proportionality of the level of passenger flow between locations and attraction function of the locations and counter proportionality to resistance which has to be overcome to get from one point to another. Regions GDP was assumed to be the attraction force, and transport costs of one kilometre are considered as the resistance. This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 44 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

The calculations were done using the following formulas:

Aij PKBi * PKB j Tij  Ti * * Kij Aij   Aij cij * Lij where: Tij = number of air trips form location i to location j Ti = number of air trips generated in location i PKBi , PKBj = Gross Domestic Product created in location i and j Cij = 1 passenger-kilometre cost Lij = distance between i and j Kij = calibrating coefficient

Number of air trips generated in region Ti was calculated considering the abovementioned assumption. The calculation outcome is shown in Table 8. Regional GDP was taken from Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), and the distances between regions were assumed as the distance between city centres. 1 passenger-kilometre cost is basing on the average price of the air tickets and was set at 1 PLN/pax km. Calibration coefficients are estimated by iterative method.

Table 8-3 Distances longer than 200km between NUTS-2 capitals.

The distances in this table are point-to-point distances between NUTS-2 capitals centres. The colour marked cells mean the distances less than 200km, not taken under consideration in further calculations.

Table 8-4 Socioeconomic data concerning interregional air transport.

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Table 8-5 Aircraft transport efficiency.

The calculations were done using MS Office Excel. The flow on the connections was determined using the calculated and shown in Table 8-6 efficiencies of the chosen regional aircraft and aircraft representing the EPATS class (Table 8-7). Sums of the same, respective class connections generated a distribution of transport efficiency (of travel) and a distribution of air operations with respect to every considered class of aircraft.

Table 8-6 Interregional air trips distribution.

Table 8-7 EPATS aircraft class

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Dayly interregional trips distribution

3000

2500

2000

1500 Dayly trips Daylytrips 1000

500

0 48 seats 19 seats 10 seats 5 seats Aircraft seats

Fig. 8-8 Aircraft distribution fleet.

AIRCRAFT DISTRIBUTION FLEET

60

50

40

30

20 Number of aircraft 10

0 48 seats 19 seats 10 seats 5 seats

Aircraft category

Fig. 8-9 Daily interregional trips distribution.

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In order to determine a potential aircraft fleet structure, which would be able to satisfy the demand for transport between regions in a rational way, the lowest acceptable, efficient, average flow was estimated. The flow is characterized by market prices and conditioned by the number of air operations yearly and seat use rate. As it is visible on the Table 4, the relations connecting all regions with the central airport in Warszawa and connection between Katowice and Poznan are profitable for an airline using regional aircraft ATR-42. All of the other interregional connections are below the break-even point concerning the economy of a conventional regional air carrier. It is an area, where smaller aircraft are to be used to reach profitability. The analysis outcomes cannot be used to determine the EPATS aircraft demand. It is impossible, because long distance car trips weren’t taken under consideration in the analysis, which are the main competitors for the EPATS. The EPATS aircraft demand estimation will be the issue of separate research. The objective of this analysis was to indicate the EPATS importance in interregional transport and confirmation of aircraft categories considered for the system.

Conclusions

1. Only Warszawa-Okęcie is fully and 11 main airports are partially used among the existing 130 airports in Poland. All other airports are outside the air communication network. 2. Regional connections are limited to hub&spoke network, connecting main cities with Warszawa. Regional airlines provide service using 48-seats ATR-42 on the average connection of 280km. 5 NUTS-2 region capitals do not have any connection. 3. The expected level of passenger flow on the direct connections and connections between some of the NUTS-2 capitals do not justify the introduction of regular air connection by the existing air lines. 4. Airlines operating large aircraft are interested in intensive flow of passengers which secure efficiency of the operation. It is the reason behind the hub&spoke system causing negative social effects and standing contradictory to cohesion and regions sustainable development.

9. EPATS REFERENCE AIRCRAFT

The reference aircraft have been chosen such that the entire gamma of possible EPATS aircraft is well covered. They are those that employ the most advanced technologies and have the most suitable performances for EPATS. They are selected such that they represent suitable benchmark for comparison.

9.1 EPATS reference aircraft characteristics

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Table 9-1 Aircraft reference list. EPATS SINGLE-ENGINE MULTI-ENGINE AIRCRAFT PISTONS PISTONS REFERENCE LIST

Manufacturer Cirrus Piper Diamond Piper Model SR-22 Saratoga II TC DA-42 Twin Star Seneca V Price [M€] $ 0.371/0.470 $ 0.574 $ 0.533-0.679 $ 0.766 Certification Year 2000? 1997 2004? 1996 Characteristic Seating 1+3 1+5 1+3 1+5 Dimensions Internal [m] Lenght 3.3 3,16 3.15 Width 1.24 1,24 1.24 Hight 1.27 1,07 1.07 Power Engine Teledyne Continental Textron Lycoming Thielert Centurion Teledyne Continental IO-550-N TIO-540-AH1A v. 2.0 TSIO-360-RB Price [€] 30 085-31 635 Output [kW] 231 224 99 164 Weight 187 149.8 (v. 2.0) 149 SFC TBO [h] 2000 TBR: 1000 (2400 future) 1800 Weights [kg] Max. TO 1542 1633 1786/1702 2154 Max. Payload 428 Useful Load 531 516 532 562 Max. Fuel 301 (251 usable) 301 usable 189 - 265 l (Jet-A) 332 Performance Max. Cruise/Altitude [km/h / ] 343 (2438m/75%p.) 343 (4572m) 335 (3810m/80%p.) 300 (75%p.) Service Ceiling [m] 5334 6096 5486 4575 Rate of Climb [m/min] 426 390 65 TO Distance to 15 m [m] 486 552 527 671 DOC/(pax*km) litre/(pax*km) - Cruise 0.066 est. 0.05 est Range Cruise Speed/Altitude [m] 75% P/2438 80% P=318.5/ Range [km]/Payload 1502/- 1563 Normal Cruise 1698/- 1533

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EPATS SINGLE-ENGINE MULTI-ENGINE AIRCRAFT TURBOPROPS TURBOPROPS REFERENCE LIST

Manufacturer Epic Socata Pilatus Piaggio Beechcraft BAE Model Dynasty TBM-850 PC-12 Avanti II King Air 350 Jetstream 32EP Price [M€] $ 1.950 2.18 2.24 5.85 $ 5.97 4.9 Certification Year 2008 2005 1994 2006 1990 1997 Characteristic Seating 1+ 5 2+4 2+9 2+9 2+15 2+19 Dimensions Internal [m] Lenght 4.57 4.05 5.16 4.55 5.94 7.39 Width 1.40 1.21 1.53 1.85 1.37 1.85 Hight 1.49 1.22 1.47 1.75 1.45 1.8 Power Engine P&WC P&WC P&WC P&WC P&WC Garett PT6-67A PT6A-66D PT6A-67B PT6A-66B PT6A-60A TPE331-12 Price [€] Output [kW] 895 633 895 2 x 634 2 x 783 2 x 761 Weight [kg] 230 226 234 213 (v. 66) 216 182 SFC [kg/(kW*h)] 0.335 0.378 (v. 66) 0.336 0.378 (v. 66) 0.334 0.318 TBO [h] 3000 3000 (v. 66A) 3500 3000 (v. 66/A) 3600 3600-5000-5400 Weights [kg] Max.Ramp/TO [kg] -/3314 3370/3354 4760/4740 -/5466 6855/6804 -/7360 Max. Payload [kg] 613 605 1123 907 2042 Useful Load [kg] 1873 1950 2531 Max. (Usable) Fuel [kg] 856-1070 888 (861) (1227) 1639 Performance Max. Cruise/Altitude [kmh/m ] 630 593/7925 500/7620 737/8538 578/10058 491 Service Ceiling [m] 9449 9449 9150 12500 10668 7620 Rate of Climb [m/min] 611 480 899 832 TO Distance 15 m (BFL) [m] 488 865 (917) (1295) (1006) DOC/(pax*km) litre/(pax*km) - Cruise 0.078 (8534; 5 pax.) 0.045 (8 pax.) 0.036 (15 pax.) Range Cruise Speed/Altitude [m] 533/- 593/7924 500/7925 -/- Max cr. P/10 668 463/- Range [km]/Payload 2870/1+5 2269/1+5 2583/1+9 max 2791/- 1737/1+15 915/2+19 Reserves IFR 45 min. NBAA IFR IFR NBAA IFR This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 50 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

EPATS SINGLE-ENGINE MULTI-ENGINE AIRCRAFT JETS JETS REFERENCE LIST

Manufacturer Diamond Eclipse Grob Embraer Cessna Model D-Jet 500 SPn Phenom 300 Citation Encore + Price [M€] 1.08 $ 1.520 5.80 € 5.19 6.29 Certification Year 2007 ? 2007 2008 ? ? Characteristic Seating 2+3 1+5 1+9/2+8 2+7 2+11 Dimensions Internal [m] Lenght 3.53 3.76 5.10 4.90 5.28 Width 1.42 1.42 1.52 1.55 1.47 Hight 1.44 1.27 1.64 1.50 1.45 Power Engine Williams P&WC Williams P&WC P&WC FJ33-4A PW610F FJ44-3A PW535E PW535B Price [€] Output [kN] 6.23-6.99 ? 2 x 4.0 2 x 12.5 2 x 14.23 2 x 15.12 Weight [kg] 136.2 (v. 4) SFC [kg/(kW*h)] 0.45 est. TBO [h] 4000 5000 5000 (v. A/E) Weights [kg] Max.Ramp/TO [kg] 2320/2300 2735/2719 -/6300 ? 7725/7634 Max. Payload [kg] Useful Load [kg] 1018 1089 2205 ? 2917 Max. (Usable) Fuel [kg] 765 2449 Performance Max. Cruise/Altitude [kmh/m ] 583 685 754/10 058 833 793 Service Ceiling [m] 7620 12 497 12 497 13 716 13 716 Rate of Climb [m/min] 1044 1320 TO Distance to 15 m (BFL) [m] (620 ?) 714 (914) (1128) 1073 ? DOC/(pax*km) litre/(pax*km) - Cruise Range Cruise Speed/Altitude [m] ? -/12 497 6 pax (occupants?) ? Range [km]/Payload 2502 2408/1x91+3x80 3093/1+8 3335 3262 Reserves NBAA IFR IFR NBAA IFR This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 51 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

9.2 Calculated DOC and current price of reference aircraft services Table 9-2 Reference aircraft operating costs. Reference Aircraft Pax Vcr. SFC DOC* Price** Price** Source seats [km/h] [l/s.km] [E/s.km] [E/h] [E/s.km] Cirrus SR-22 3 343 0,025 0,105 446 0,43 1 Piper Saratoga II 5 343 0,045 0,082 Diamond DA-42 3 335 0,050 0,186 Piper Seneca V 5 300 0,033 0,146 500 0,41 2 Epic Dynasty 5 630 0,055 0,150 Pilatus PC-12 9 500 0,036 0,126 0,70 10 Piaggio Avanti II 7 737 0,054 0,253 5640 1,09 3 0,53 10 King-Air 350 15 578 0,036 0,238 6737 0,77 3 0,85 10 King-Air B200 7 422 600 0,2 9 0,90 10 +Jetstream 32 EP 19 491 0,020 0,205 5428 0,58 3 0,060 0,17 1218 0,17 6 Diamond D-jet 3 583 0,150 0,417 Eclipse 5 685 0,083 0,277 1200 0,35 4 (372) (0,11) 6 Embraer Phenom 300 833 Citation Mustang 4 630 0,147 0,478 (574) (0,23) 5 Evation EV20 Vanta 8 0,041 0,117 Grob Spn 8 754 0,062 0,282 Citation Encore 9 793 0,105 0,289 10000 1,40 3

Skypoland – Polish Air-Taxi services Provider Cessna 3108 – twin pis 5 300 650 0,43 7 Cessna 182T 5 250 400 0,32 7 Cessna 172 Skyhawk 3 200 300 0,5 7

US Market Analyses: http://www.rti.org/pubs/SATS_Market-Business_Analyses.pdf US Air-Taxi – average 0,70 8 * DOC per seat.km calculated ** Air-Taxi Providers price in Euro per hour and per seat.km – see sources Sources: 1. SATS-air: http://www.satsair.com/block_time.html 2. AIR-Med: http://www.airmed.co.uk/costs.htm 3. http://www.avinode.com/avinode/AvinodePublicWeb/index.do 4. http://www.planechartering.com 5. (…) http://www.eclipseaviation.com/files/pdf/Economics.pdf 6. New Regional Airline – 4-AIR Airlines LMD, 2005-2006 7. Skypoland http://www.skypoland.pl/en/glowna2.swf 8. Monte Carlo Air Taxi Simulator program http://www.rti.org/pubs/MCATS_Users_Guide_v2.5.pdf http://www.rti.org/page.cfm?objectid=2D2F254F-9700-45D2-836A034546312590 9. Aircraft Operating Cost Report, ARG/US http://www.aviationresearch.com/Files/AOC.pdf

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9.3 EPATS and reference aircraft comparison Comparing to the reference list aircraft the EPATS 2020 aircraft characteristics will differ as follow: - Increased comfort: lower noise and vibrations, smoother flight (improved ride quality due to active control), larger and more ergonomic cockpit (especially in single engine aircraft). - More intuitive and easier to fly. - Single control station – one pilot flight crewmember (possible thanks fully Automated flight control and air traffic management system). - All Electric Aircraft configuration. - Implementation of lighter and smaller, highly reliable propulsion systems requiring less maintenance and manufactured at significantly lower production costs. Implementation of piston engines fuelled by bio-fuels. Increased propellers efficiency (more than 0,85) . - Using new technologies and materials in airframe to decrease weight and manufacture costs. - Using module components increasing possibility of equipment retrofit and aircraft type adaptation to meet market demand. The baseline aircraft should give possibility to produce derivative versions (for example: different fuselage length will have common wing, empennage, cockpit, engine,). - Introducing higher level of equipment and structure elements unification and standardization. - Decrease of minimum speeds (through new aerodynamic solutions). - Reducing the chance of “pilot error” and if an accident occurs, more crashworthy. - Increasing flight safety through introduction of more rigorous requirements of JAR-23 for EPATS aircraft (including some JAR-25 regulations). - Automated flight control and air traffic management system (allowing one pilot crew). - Integrated flight management system (flight planning, alerts on restricted air space, air traffic control frequencies and terrain variations, report fuel capacity and weight allowance, inform about weather,…). Easy access to flight information and situation by PFD (Primary Flight Display) and MFD (Multi Function Display) use. - Reducing fuel consumption through more efficient power systems, lower airframe weight and new aerodynamic solutions. - Lower purchase price – reached thanks to new technological solutions applied in respective stages of full life cycle, increased production scale and appearing cooperation possibilities in the EU. - Lower operating costs – through lower fuel consumption, costs of purchase and maintenance.

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10. EPATS DEMAND FORECASTING AND METHODOLOGY

One of the most important issues to be solved during the study phase of the EPATS project is the social needs and the EPATS demand forecasting. We investigate different approaches to this problem and take into account 3 scenarios:

10.1 Scenarios

Scenario 1 There will not be any change of air transport policy in Europe. Only the free market causes development of small aircraft transportation system and General Aviation;

Scenario 2 Remote regional authorities, social and commercial organizations, and local airports and aircraft owners are interested in air transportation services and are planning development of small aircraft transportation system. There is a limited financial support from the EU and public funds;

Scenario 3 The EU recognizes the EPATS as “public good” and assists in realization of coherent economic European space development. The EU includes the EPATS in the transportation, regional and research programs, as an important element of the European Transportation System.

In the demand model the scenario will be reflected mainly by the level of generalized transportation cost, and particularly by the impact on externals costs and tax and public subsidies. Depending of the scenario will be the rate of personal and business aviation development, the magnitude of aircraft importation and the future of GA aircraft manufacturing in Europe.

10.2 About Market research methodology

The methodology of market research bases on the estimation of variables correlation with the demand level, including changes in the environment corresponding to time, basing on the statistical data, and then forecasting future demand by the extrapolation of history using regression methods. Main parameters of the system influencing the level of demand for specific mode of transport are: transport costs, travel time, accessibility, security and convenience. Main environment changes in time are changes of income and population level. A demand elasticity of variable changes is defined by the following equation: D P    D P

where: D = system variable, P = demand for system, Δ = increase of D or P, respectively The elasticity of demand for a system is an effect of statistical analysis of market data and shows the relation between demand and system variables. It is possible to calculate it there, where market already exists for certain service or good and where exists the database describing history of supply and demand processes. It is futile for the EPATS demand forecasting, because the market does not exist.

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Small aircraft transport companies in Europe are insignificant and they are not representative for the EPATS purpose. They utilize about 700, mainly jet aircraft providing service to relatively few, richest people mainly on routes between big cites, where scheduled airlines are available. Furthermore, the aforementioned companies do not contribute data to public statistics and do not possess databases enabling forecasting. Market researches are based on analysis of a free market play and they tend to ignore public goods, which cannot be evaluated by market mechanisms only. If the European Commission objectives concerning sustainable development of transport are to be reached and accessibility in outlaying regions of the Community is to be increased, an environment ought to be created supported by institutions including administration and all level authorities.

10.3 Generalized costs minimization method

The essential air transport In EPATS system will be done outside main airways, in the airspace and at the airports, so far, not used. Most of the flights will be done between airports of NUTS2 (280) and NUTS3 (1180) regions, that do not have direct scheduled air connections, nor hi-speed train. Pistons, constituting most of the fleet, will fly in the airspace below 6 000 m, turboprops at 6 to 8 thousand and only very light jets will operate at levels typical for large passenger aircraft, i.e. above 9 000 m. The basic problem of ATM-ATC is securing possibilities to start and land in all weather conditions at poorly equipped airports and safe execution of flights in uncontrolled (self controlled) space. The size of the passengers’ traffic between regions was taken from the ESPON project. The forecasted demand of EPATS aircraft is based on the following assumptions: o The average traveller has knowledge about available transportation alternatives and make rational choice in terms of money and time needed to complete the trip. Globally the choice is based on user perceived benefit. o The bases of demand prognosis are current and future data concerning: interregional passengers mobility for each mode of transport and particularly car, regional socio- economics data, household income distribution, value of time distribution and transportation system operational and economics characteristics. o The demand model is based on minimization of travel costs for a given level of services. o Remote regional authorities, social and commercial organizations, and local airports and aircraft owners are interested in air transportation services and are planning development of small aircraft transportation system. o The EU recognizes the EPATS as “public good” and assists in realization of coherent economic European space development. The EU includes the EPATS in the transportation, regional and research programs, as an important element of the European Transportation System. Generalized costs minimization method requires building a model, which enables to calculate and choose such modes of transport structure, that minimize generalized costs of travel in a given time and space in the range limit of missions, security and environmental requirements. • Generalized costs include inside (user) and outside (social, taxpayer) generalized costs. While inside generalized travel costs include: • Transportation costs (user out of pocket total). • Externalities cost (taxpayers - which reduces user out-of-pocket costs). This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 55 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

• Value of travel time (which depends on personal incomes and travel objective). • Additional costs linked to travel (other expenses overnight accommodation, per diem costs). • Subjective values like preferences and comfort expressed in monetary unit and explaining costs or benefits described by an indicator corresponding to transport costs. • Transportation Public subsidy which reduces user out-of-pocket costs. The elements of public costs, which will be taken into account in the model, will depend on scenario chosen. In our model, the outside (taxpayer) costs will be taken from previous research works and analyses concerning social costs of functioning of respective transport systems undertaken both in Europe and the United States. The transport choice model will include the following elements and sub models: . Travel choice determinants: socioeconomic characteristics of region, including Lorenz curve (income distribution). . Characteristics of road, rail and airport network. . Trip generation – to set up the magnitude of travels by mode, distances, income category basing on a statistic data base analysis. . Origin-destination trip distribution considering passenger flows and their structure using gravity model. Model verification by regional mobility surveys. . Transportation costs model of respective modes involving outside costs, as a function of distance. . Fuel consumption model and harmful gas emissions (ecology restriction). . Transport security analysis of different modes and tables of respective periods (assessment of security restriction). . Travel cost model of respective modes as a function of distance and value of time (or an EPATS/car indifference curve for passenger). . Results aggregation and indication of the most advantageous modal split for a given case calculations. Data relating to socioeconomic characteristics, transport networks and their nodes, accessibility to communication modes and population mobility of European countries (NUTS 0), their regions (NUTS 2) and sub regions (NUTS 3) will be drawn from the results of previous research realized in the European framework programs: ESPON, EUNET, DATELINE and SCENES.

Data considering network of all existing airports in the European Union, because of lack of detailed materials in this area (especially small general aviation airports and unused military installations) will be gathered from available sources and prepared separately. Outside costs information about functioning of transport system will be gained from available statistical data and compilations about Europe and the United States (the US data will be adequately transformed for European conditions).

The existing differences between the EU Member States will be accommodated for cost calculation, while the cost estimation model will be the same for all countries and will be the subject of a separate analysis and agreements.

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A transport mode choice model is a model of total costs of travel of passengers belonging to a specific bracket of income, realized for specified purpose (business, private), door-to-door (O-D) using alternative modes of transport. The model allows a calculation answering the question which of the modes fulfils the conditions of the cheapest mode for a given route, purpose and traveller’s income. According to the fact, that the costs are involved in a given mode characteristics, and the characteristics of the mode will be settled in the requirements (WP4), calculations will be carried out in a feedback relation.

There are three following modelling approaches projected for part of studies over the EPATS demand forecasting (WP2).

10.4 Global approach at the European level

Global approach at the European level (macro scale modelling) which will estimate global demand for the EPATS aircraft in the EU in two periods:

 Until the year 2020, mainly basing on the existing infrastructure of airports, air traffic ATM systems and new aircraft design, which were certified under FAR (JAR) 23 and 135, airworthiness standards and operating requirements after 1995.

 After 2020, using new aircrafts and infrastructure fulfilling the EPATS requirements and basing on the most modern technologies and results of researches done in the frame of European and national programs of the previous period. The EPATS forecasting base in this approach is transport work (pax km) done in Europe by cars in the assumed brackets of distance on routes above 300km and household income for business and private travels. The task is to calculate what part of this transport work small aircraft can substitute. Generalized costs of transport are averaged in the assumed brackets of distance and income. The following transport modes will be analyzed: - Medium class car, as a control mode to which aircraft will be referred. - Single piston engine aircraft (4 seats). - Twin piston engine aircraft (5-7 seats). - Single turboprop engine aircraft (6-12 seats). - Twin turboprop engine aircraft (12-19 seats). - Twin jet aircraft (5-7 seats and 7-12 seats). The calculations will be made for the most advanced current aircraft and aircraft fulfilling EPATS requirements. The reasoning behind assuming car as a control mode is due to: . the EPATS is focusing on the areas where car travel is predominant because other high speed modes are inaccessible. . 70% of travels in distance bracket of 300 – 1200 km are done by car. The share of regional airline, train and bus linking directly regions from point to point in global passenger transport is law and can be omitted.

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To demonstrate the rightness of this assumption, a calculation of time and costs of travel between some chosen regions with poor accessibility for each transport mode (car, bus, train airline and EPATS) will be carried out. A general forecasted value of work done by all types of aircraft at the respective distances will be produced by this approach and then followed by a forecast of a number of aircraft and operations. This value, together with some additional information of the operating area (altitude, sectors) will become a base (input) for analysis of the EPATS impact on air traffic control and management systems (ATM-ATC) and preparation of new requirements for these systems allowing the EPATS implementation. Information about forecasted air fleet capacity and structure produced in this approach will be a base for Roadmap of the EPATS.

GLOBAL EPATS AIRCRAFT DEMAND ON EUROPEAN LEVEL PROCESS SCHEME Based on minimization of generalized travel costs car/aircraft

Car Trips distribution Analysis Data sources Trips(distance, income, for ESPON, EUNET, DATELINE, reasons) current SCENES, American Travel year and Survey and others 2020 Income distribution (Lorenz Curve) Contact

Authors 1. Time value (income, trips reason)

Car Trip distribution Trips(reason,distance, value of time)

Generalized Transportation cost car/ aircraft

Travel costs Car/Aircraft 2. Others travel costs (out of pocket)

Car/aircraft characteristics

Car/aircraft load factors

Car/aircraft network characteristics ( accessibility, distance factors)

3. Car/aircraft generalized costs as a function of operational costs, distance, time value, accommodations

4. From Car Trips distribution 5. Calculate the and Car/aircraft generalized number of aicraft costs choice the vehicle, and operations which minimizes generalized needed for satisfy cost the trips demand

Fig. 10-1 Scheme of calculating EPATS aircraft demand.

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10.5 Global approach at country level

This approach takes under consideration existing socioeconomic differences among respective member states, especially between the group of old Europe (EU15) and new ones (EU27). France and Poland were chosen, as the most representative of these two groups. For these reason analysis and calculations will be carried out for them. Modelling methodology and estimation of the EPATS demand for these two countries is the same as at the European level. Analysis and calculations done in this part will be used to build more credible, generalized socioeconomic characteristics at the European level. Moreover, a clear image of differences in the area of fast transport between Eastern and Western EU Members will be given followed by a need of different approach to plan of transport systems development. Considering the above mentioned part, it is visible, that calculations at the country level should be carried out before beginning the European level analysis.

10.6 Approach at regional level (of an airport)

This approach is to show the way of forecasting demand for personal transport system at the regional and sub regional level and verification of the global forecasting results by comparing to the results of a detailed modelling of regional demand assumed as sample sets of European system. Likewise the global approach, the regional demand forecasting model is based on the generalized travel costs minimization, except for the fact, that characteristics of airports and transport infrastructure, socioeconomic data and population mobility concerns airport surrounding area. In this model, data concerning mobility is given as a vector describing a number of travellers on routes connecting a given region “i” with the rest of regions (airports) “j” of a country and Europe in a distance more than 300 km. Such a flow will be calculated using a gravity model and a modal split and travellers split will base on statistical data. It is assumed, that planning an implementation of the EPATS in a region, the flow will be verified with an adequate traffic survey, examining especially road transport. The calculations will be carried out for two regions of Poland and France. A choice of the regions will base on the accessibility indicator drawn from the results of the ESPON and the EUNET programs. The regions of relatively highly populated areas with operational airports, having low accessibility will be selected. These are usually regions located far from main communication networks without direct air connection with other regions. See picture below. It is assumed that the ultimate choice of the regions will follow the negotiations with local authorities and airport management.

10.7 Results of EPATS aircraft demand calculations

While estimating of the potential demand for EPATS aircraft, the basic assumption was that travellers planning their trip choose this mode, which is the most affordable and optimally fulfils their needs, “more for less”, i.e., which minimizes their generalized costs of travel (A certain, monetary value is assigned to all factors like time, comfort, security, etc., influencing the mode choice, which is included in the generalized costs calculations – in the preliminary studies, the most important factor was considered only – the value of time in business travel).

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The outcomes were obtained basing on a model, which calculates the potentially transferred to EPATS share of business purpose travels in EU done by car or air on connections between NUTS2 regions, by travellers of different value of time (income levels). The choice criteria were minimization of generalized costs. The costs of transport of particular types of vehicles were computed according to the generally accepted methods, the income distributions were taken form data extended by Pareto law of high income and the passenger flows were provided by the outcomes of one of ESPON projects (MCRIT’s pax. flows).

Servicing low and unstable passenger flows and taking into account the above assumptions led to introducing aircraft of various classes and size (speed, range, seat capability) and to use various operations models and diverse carrying out services (scheduled, on demand, air-taxi, sharing-air travel, subscription flight, personal flight).

The preliminary EPATS study on potential demand 2020 in Europe shows the need for business travel of:

Table 10-1 EPATS aircraft number. Airplanes (4-19 pax) Fleet Flights per year Piston’s 49800 23 000 000 Turboprop 16 000 16 000 000 Jets 24 000 4 000 000 Total 89 000 43 000 000

690 bln pas.km (48%) 96 bln pas.km (7%)

128 bln pas.km (9%)

71 bln pas.km (5%) 400 bln pas.km (28%) 43 bln pas.km (3%)

Fig. 10-2 Vision 2020 of modal split for interregional trips in Europe.

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10.8 EPATS aircraft mission’s characteristics taken for calculation

For demand calculation the next aircraft fleet and characteristics were used.

Table 10-2 EPATS aircraft characteristics.

VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS Parameter V- ACP-1 ACP-2 ACT-1 ACT-2 ACJ-1 ACJ-2 REF* 1 Crew 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Pas. Seating (PS) 3 3 5 9 19 5 9 3 Max PayPayload [kg] 285 475 855 1805 475 855 4 Useful load [kg] 530 560 1850 2400 1100 2200 5 Takeoff weight [kg] 1300 2000 4500 7200 2700 6000 6 TO Field length [m] 600 600 1000 1200 800 1000 7 Initial gradient [m/m] 0,12 0,18 0,14 0,18 0,18 0,18 8 Cruise speed [km/h] 80 320 350 550 550 700 750 9 Climb speed/Cruise speed CC 0,5 0,5 0,55 0,55 0,6 0,6 10 Cruise altitude FL 100 250 250 250 350 350 11 Range [km] 1000 1000 1500 1500 2500 2500 12 ATM Capability:SESAR level 1 1 3 3 3 3 13 SFC [l/km] 0,09 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,55 0,30 0,55 14 Operational costs [Euros/h] 0,5E/km 200 300 1000 1300 1300 2000 15 Estimated Price [1000 Euros] 30 200 400 2000 4000 1500 3500 16 Certification basis CS-23 CS-23 CS-23 CS-23 CS-23 CS-23

EPATS Aircraft Operational Costs OCSK

0,80

0,70

0,60 ACP-1 0,50 ACP-2 ACT-1 0,40 ACT-2 ACJ-1 0,30 ACJ-2 0,20 Operational Costs [E/seat.km]Costs Operational

0,10

0,00 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Great Circle Distance [km]

Fig. 10-3 Operational cost

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Table 10-3 EPATS aircraft types: ACP-1- Single-Engine Piston ACJ-1 – Twin-Engine Very Light Jet (<5000 kg) ACP-2 – Twin-Engine Piston ACJ-2 – Twin-Engine Light Jet (< 7000 kg) ACT-1 – Single-Engine Turbo-prop ACT-2 – Twin – Engine Turboprop V-REF – Vehicle reference, it is assumed to be a car

Conclusions This forecast does not take into account news concepts and activities aimed to shift long distance car trips to air travel like EPATS. The travel productivity of personals cars in Europe on distance above 300 km amounts to 825 billions pax km per year. An average business aircraft performs 1 millions pax km. If we make air business travel affordable for only a few percent of active population instead of less than 0,1% as currently, than it is possible to shift a considerable part of car trips to air travel. Preliminary analysis shows, that the costs of business aircraft travel may be near the cost of car travel, so the accessibility and affordability will be considerably shifted. If we transfer only 10 % of long distance car travel to business aircraft travel we obtain a volume of 82,5 billions pax km to be made by aircraft. That means, that the number of aircraft needed is 82,5 thousands and the number of flights/day will be of the same order. That is the true challenge for future ATM. On the figure below you can see the amount of reserve the aviation has in car passengers transport.

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11. EPATS VISION Table 11-1 EPATS Vision 2020 and current state. EUROPEAN PERSONAL AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM – EPATS VISION 2020

EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) FAR-23 (JAR-23) Normal and Enhanced CS 23 Standards Personal Aircraft Airworthiness Airworthiness Commuter category Standards Standards Single and multi-engine pistons, 4 to 19 seatings, single and multi-engine pistons, turboprop and New Technically Advanced Small Aircraft Types turboprop and jet aircraft jet aircraft Aircraft (TASA)

Mainly metallic structure with Integral components – lower number of parts, mainly New Technically Advanced Small

Structure thousandth parts. Design concept composite, automatically formed and/or monolithic part Aircraft (TASA) from 1960th produced from a single metallic block mechanically or chemically

Module structure and versality

Crashworthiness features requirements

AIRCRAFT Optimized relationship between size, weight, fuel capacity, engine thrust and EPATS missions requirements.

Related structure weigh: 100 – 150 Reduction of weight: 20 % kg per seat Reduction of manufacturing cost: 30% Related structure cost: ~250 Euro per kg

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) Aerodynamics concept from 1960th High / low speed capability via the variable geometry airfoil New Technically Advanced Small Aerodynamics (in the form of high lift design on leading and trailing edge). Aircraft (TASA) High low speed performance and high effectiveness at cruising Poor ride quality (Levels of vertical speed and lateral accelerations as a airplane response to atmospheric Improved response to atmosphere turbulence (better ride turbulence) quality)

Lift-drag ratio at cruising Lift-drag ratio at cruising speed: 10- 15 speed: 7- 12

Max lift coefficient: 1,8 – 2,2 Max lift coefficient: 2,5 – 3

Mechanical or hydro - mechanical Fly-by wire control systems (to be certified to DO-178 B New Technically Advanced Small Flight Control adopted by FAA) (with hydraulic or electric actuator) and Full Aircraft (TASA) with fly-by wire Authority Digital Engine Control (FADEC) flight control system.

Pilot fly-via-computer New concept of flight control surfaces to make control difficulty AIRCRAFT level comparable to driving a car.

Gasoline Piston engines, Compact diesel piston engines running on jet fuel (Jet-A) and Piston engine price comparable to Propulsion1 SFC: ~0,2 l/KM h bio-fuel, having low fuel consumption (<0,2 l/KM.h) and low car engine price. Related weight: 0,8 kg / KM mass to power ratio (< 0,8 kg/KM), low vibration and noise Jet engine price reduced by an Price: 65k. $ for 200 KM levels, meeting ecological requirements. order of magnitude. Propeller: Effectiveness: 0,80-0,90 Propeller: Effectiveness: 0,70-0,80 FADEC Introducing hybrid propulsion system - of ECATS Turbine engines Small turbofan jet engines with thrust 250 – 800 daN, mass to (Environmentally Compatible Air (800k $ for 1000 daN of thrust) thrust ratio about 0,12 kg/daN and specific fuel consumption Transportation System) project. below 0,5 kg/daN.h meeting noise and emissions requirements. FADEC

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) In older aircraft dozens of Communication, navigation and flight control based mainly on New avionics to ensure Avionics2 instruments, gauges and swiches to satellite systems (Galileo); Multi function autopilot compliance with SESAR project monitor (performing flight management and instructor role) linked with and: Communication, navigation and fly-by-wire system - missions capabilities, flight control based mainly on radio - autoland system and radar Intuitive flight desk design. Easy to operate color flight parameters and multifunction displays (monitors) and Head Up In the last year new avionics Display allowing color visualization systems was introduced. See: avionics reference list 2 Voice threat warning systems (prohibitive proximity to other aircraft or ground objects, deviating from planned flight path)

See table 1 EPATS avionics equipment list

Systems New Technically Advanced Small Equipped More effective ice protection system Aircraft (TASA) Ice protection systems AIRCRAFT Not equipped Equipped for aircraft with more than 6 seatings Lavatory system Not equipped Automatic emergency flight Back system3 Emergency systems Not equipped On-Board Diagnostic System linked with Flight Operation On-Board Diagnostics Quality Assurance Center (FOQA) 4 System

See Table 2 Reference aircraft See: New Technically Advanced Small Performances Scheme 1 EPATS aircraft categories, operations and missions Aircraft (TASA) fulfilling Requirements Table 1 EPATS aircraft missions requirements missions requirements See EPATS Aircraft Fig. 1 EPATS Pyload-Range Capacity Missions and Requirements

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) Unsatisfied level of cabin interior Cabin size and furnishings in new technically advanced 4-6 New Technically Advanced Small Comfort noise and vibration, restricted cabin seating aircraft similar to car. Aircraft (TASA) size and poor ride comfort Interior noise and vibration reduced to appropriate level (say particularly for pistons. Levels of 75 dB). Implementation of Anti Noise Control (reduction). vertical and lateral accelerations as a airplane response to atmospheric Improved Ride Control Index and implementation of ride- turbulence is considered as severe control system (coupled with fly-by-wire control) for pistons, moderate for turboprop

and slight for jet. The corporate jet accident rate of Accident rate of EPATS aircraft comparable with scheduled Security and Safety 0.08 accidents per 100,000 aircraft. due to: departures compares favourably - fully automated control system (Digital Fly-by-wire, with the scheduled airline rate of FADEC, autopilot) 0.112 for hull loss and/or fatal - Automatic emergency flight Back system AIRCRAFT accidents per 100,000 departures of - On-Board Diagnostic System and FOQA jet aircraft over 60,000 lbs and 0.241 - Crashworthiness features for non-scheduled and all other - Automated ATM and digital CNS operations of jet aircraft over 60,000 - More effective ice protection system lbs - More restrictive CS 23 Maintenance man-hours required per Performance of overhaul, repair, inspection, replacement, Maintenance man-hours required Maintenance flight hour: 0,5 – 2 modification as well as Flight Operation Quality Assurance per flight hour: 0,25 – 1 TBO: 2000 - 3000 (FOQA) and Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) are TBO:> 5000 standardized and centralized

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) There are about 2200 landing The increase of airports number is not envisaged. Only Successive adaptation to EPATS facilities from which only 43 main successive modernization is assumed. requirements in each NUTS 3 airports handle 85% of the European For EPATS operation 3 groups of landing facilities are region are planned air traffic. The remaining, in which predicted: 1336 paved and 737 IFR, are weakly  Typical controlled regional airport in every NUTS 2 utilized. region with aircraft fleet suitable to regional passenger

traffic and with technical and operational maintenance service  SATS airport with low passenger flow, no carrier base, 1 airstrip with artificial surface at least 1000 m long, no lights, no control tower, providing minimum service. AIRPORTS  Airfield for emergency landing, meeting specific requirements

Most of abovementioned airports will emerge from aero club and others airfields as a result of regional community and authorities initiative.

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) New Air Traffic Control system designed for SATS, which Fully operational European air Radio-electronic equipment (radio will operate below air space operated by air lines (below 7000 traffic management and control ATM – ATC communication, radar approach m) and separated from airliner traffic. system SATS, based on “Open systems and ILS), lights on airstrips Main features of new ATC system for SATS are: Sky” and „Free Flight” rules. and taxi ways,  Air traffic control enroute and in airports’ MTA are Ability to land on airfields with no VOR/DME stations separated lights, control tower in nearly all  Aircraft position In flight is determined by satellite weather conditions. ATM-ATC manages 9 mln flights a system and information on air traffic is delivered to

year pilot through system of transponders and pilot is SESAR project implemented. warned if approaching 15 km radius visually on ATM-ATC manages 52 mln flights monitor and acoustically. a year ATM  In the area of large airport control and management of air traffic is transferred to airport control according to specific procedures. In SATS airport area pilots control flight path according to specifically elaborated procedures adapted to newly implemented communication, navigation and air traffic control technologies. Full information on traffic situation in air and on the ground will be displayed on monitor.

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030) About 2500 aircraft, from which In the first phase of development EPATS will be based on New technically advanced aircraft Operators and 1190 are commercial aircraft existing advanced airplanes. The fleet structure will be adapted will emerge and create new Customers – (mainly turbine) operated by 866 to the passengers flow and their value of time – from cheaper business advantages. Providers Interactive air-taxi companies employing piston to expensive jet. In every NUTS 2 (267) region bases of Booking System 25 980 peoples, The remaining are EPATS commercial Operators offering transport service As a results of systematic and Corporate and Owner operated. suitable to needs and wealth structures of population will arise. exhaustive interregional mobility The customers of air-taxi are major They will operate in the framework of Public Interactive surveys, data about corporation and larger business Transportation System supported by local community and passengers flow will be more (60%), Governments (20%) and authorities. trustworthy and structure fleet

others wealthiest clients. planning more reliable. This The EPATS commercial operations (which meet FAR 135 Air-taxi companies offer on demand permits to invest more in the standards) provide services: On demand and air-taxi services flight from point to point and aircraft fleet deployment. by aircraft and by seat, subscription flights and scheduled flight operate from about 200 airports. on connection with low (below 30 passengers by day) but The relationship Customers- Demand prognosis shows the periodically stable passenger flow. providers goes through Brokers by potential of market for 90 000 phone and internet The system will operate from and to all European airports that EPATS aircraft, from which meet a set of standards defined by EPATS Association – 55% piston’s, 20% turboprop With the appearance of VLJ’s a new expected to be 1100 at the end of first phase and 25% jet type of Next Generation Air-Taxi The number of personal aircraft operating in the European Company is born (see Air-Taxi small aircraft transportation system is expected to reach 3 200 These aircraft will operate from Association ATXA, www.atxa.com units and the number of flights 2, 4 mln. airport of each NUTS 3 (1150) sub ) and a new neutral booking engine region and link them with each

OPERATIONAL SYSTEM on Connect IT Technology are being Community economic development alliances, which include others created. New, using VLJ’s Air-Taxi the airport authority, municipalities, chambers of commerce, Companies are coming on market. and others organizations as well as air-taxi company and small The EPATS Interactive aircraft Carriers in the implementation of EPATS magnet Transportation Network will be program will lead, step by step, to Regional EPATS linked with SESAR System Wide Association emerging and finally to EPATS Association, Information Management (SWIM) which will collect Operators and Contributors and manage Interactive Transportation System Network.

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030)

New type of “customer adaptive” business model. Advanced System Technology for Real-Time Operations (known as ASTROautomates and manages every aspect of the company’s operations, end to end. This includes customer

reservations, billing and membership management; flight records and training; flight planning and scheduling; pilot electronic flight bag (EFB); DayPort field information; and maintenance control.

Few pilot schools owning flight Adapting training programs to new piloting and navigation Complete change of training simulators and several tens of technologies and new Air Traffic Management and Control methods. After acquiring the

centers authorized to give flight procedures. license, instructor is replaced with training. Lowering pilot training costs by wide usage of simulators, autopilot, which signals all Traditional training methods. personal computers and internet. Implementing wide aviation mistakes and corrects pilot’s Low level of computers usage. education of the society. actions. Training is available to Acquiring pilot license cost is wide range of population and thousandth Euros and with IFR acquiring pilot license becomes authorization cost is many times similar to getting a driving license. higher. Population with pilot license is many times bigger

PILOT TRAINING

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EPATS Current state (2008)* Preparatory, Research &Development Phase Implementation Phase Components (2020) (2030)

EPATS 2,5 mln passengers 4 mln passengers 43 million flights per year transportation 2 bln passenger .kilometres 3 bln passengers kilometres demand [5] 2150 aircraft in which: 3200 aircraft in which: Demand prognosis shows the 1100 pistons 1600 pistons potential of market for: EPATS Fleet [5] 300 turboprops 450 turboprops 90 000 EPATS aircraft, 750 jets 1300 jets 50 000 pistons 16 000 turboprops

660 aircraft in which: 24 000 jets EPATS aircraft 438** pistons production in EU 151 turboprops 71***jets

MODAL SPLIT FOR INTERREGIONAL TRIPS I EU MARKET

* It concerns only GA used for transportation purpose: aero-taxi, personal, business and corporate aircraft, commuter with seatings less than 19. ** Mainly Diamond aircraft *** Dassault Falcon aircraft

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12. EPATS AIRCRAFT MISSIONS AND REQUIREMENTS

The EPATS aircraft performances vision 2020 is based on analysis of forecasted market needs, evaluation of existing aircraft, trends in technology development, and on the existing knowledge and long experience in aircraft design. Trade off studies and costs analysis was made to verify it. [5] [6]. EPATS aircraft categories and their main missions Piston aircraft It will comply CS-23 requirements for normal and commuter category with news amendments concerning reinforced safety and environment. The dominant position of piston aircraft (70% of all, nowadays) will gradually decline together with population income increase in favor of jets. The cheapest, available in price of high class personal car, one engine aircraft will partially replace car in travels on distances 300-500 km as a private aircraft. These aircraft will be piloted by user bearing a VFR, private pilot license the most often, although they will comply EPATS requirements and have IFR capacity for commercial operation. Two-engine aircraft will operate as an air-taxi with costs comparable to a ground taxi. These will be used for one day business trips on routes connecting remote, peripheral regions on distances 300-700 km. The aircraft will be piloted by VFR/IFR commercial pilots. Their customers will be mainly small enterprise managers Turboprop aircraft It will comply CS-23 requirements for normal and commuter category with news amendments concerning reinforced safety and environment. 9 – 19-seaters, operated by small carrier companies will serve direct, regular air connections, characterized by low intensity of traffic (5000 – 10 000 passengers yearly), between peripheral regions on distances 300-1500km, to Hubs. These aircraft will also provide charter service on routes with low, irregular flow of passengers (tourism, seasonal travel to work abroad, sport, cultural events, etc.). Costs of travel using these aircraft should be comparable with costs of travelling by low-cost carriers and should be available to most of the citizens. Jet aircraft It will comply CS-23 requirements for normal category with news amendments concerning reinforced safety and environment and jet propulsion. Two main categories for utilization are planned: Small 3 – 5-seaters, Very Light Jets with maximum take-off weight below 5000 kg will be used as air-taxi providing transport from any to any region in country or the EU and as executive (the aircraft should be viewed as a productive machine). Cost efficiency could be reached by high value managers and 7-9 -seaters will operate in the area of whole Europe as a corporate and business airline charter - regularly scheduled flights between city pairs deemed profitable. EPATS aircraft and reference aircraft comparison Comparing to the reference list aircraft the EPATS 2020 aircraft characteristics will differ as follows:

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- Increased comfort: lower noise and vibrations, smoother flight (improved ride quality due to active control), larger and more ergonomic cockpit (especially in single engine aircraft). - More intuitive and easier to fly. - Single control station – one pilot flight crewmember (possible thanks fully Automated flight control and air traffic management system). - All Electric Aircraft configuration. - Implementation of lighter and smaller, highly reliable propulsion systems requiring less maintenance and manufactured at significantly lower production costs. Implementation of piston engines fuelled by bio-fuels. Increased propellers efficiency (more than 0,85) . - Using new technologies and materials in airframe to decrease weight and manufacture costs. - Using module components increasing possibility of equipment retrofit and aircraft type adaptation to meet market demand. The baseline aircraft should give possibility to produce derivative versions (for example: different fuselage length will have common wing, empennage, cockpit, engine,). - Introducing higher level of equipment and structure elements unification and standardization. - Decrease of minimum speeds (through new aerodynamic solutions). - Reducing the chance of “pilot error” and if an accident occurs, more crashworty. - Increasing flight safety through introduction of more rigorous requirements of CS-23 for EPATS aircraft (including some CS-25 regulations). - Automated flight control and air traffic management system (allowing one pilot crew). - Integrated flight management system (flight planning, alerts on restricted air space, air traffic control frequencies and terrain variations, report fuel capacity and weight allowance, inform about weather,…). Easy access to flight information and situation by PFD (Primary Flight Display) and MFD (Multi Function Display) use. - Reducing fuel consumption through more efficient power systems, lower airframe weight and new aerodynamic solutions. - Lower purchase price – reached thanks to new technological solutions applied in respective stages of full life cycle, increased production scale and appearing cooperation possibilities in the EU. - Lower operating costs – through lower fuel consumption, costs of purchase and maintenance.

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Table 12-1 EPATS BASELINE AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE (VISION 2020) Twin Single Twin Engine Aircraft Class Engine Twin Jet Engine * Turboprop Piston

Class number 1 2 3 4 5 6 Private and Air-Taxi - on Commuter- Commuter – Private and Commuter on Primary Missions Business trips demand on demand on demand Business demand and passenger and and trips and Air- transportation Air-Taxi - on services for scheduled scheduled Taxi - on and Private, demand mid class passenger passenger demand Business trips passenger (short range) services on services on passenger and Air-Taxi - services for mid low density low density services for on demand class (short passenger passenger high value passenger range) flow, flow managers services for affordable for affordable for high value population population managers majority majority

Seating ** 1+3 1+5 1+9 1+19 1+5 1+9

Cabin With [m] >1,30 >1,30 >1,80 >1,85 >1,50 >1,60 High [m] >1,30 >1,30 >1,70 >1,75 >1,50 >1,60

Lavatory No No Yes Yes Yes Yes

Pressurized No Yes Yes Yes Yes

All weather perform Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

TO Weight [kg] <1300 <2000 <5000 <7200 <2700 <6000

Cruising speed 350 >350 >550 >550 >750 >750 [km/h]

Cruise altitude [FL] 80-200 150-250 150-250 250-300 250-300

BFL [m] <600 <600 <1000 <1000 <1000 <1000

Range Full Payload >1000 >1000 >1500 >1500 >2500 >2500 [km]

SFC at Vcr <0,035 <0,035 <0,04 <0,03 <0,08 <0,07 [l/seat.km]

DOC <0,15 <0,12 <0,20 <0,l5 <0,35 <0,30 [Euro/seat.km]

Price [1000 Euro} <200 <400 <1700 <4200 <1000 <3000

Specification*** CS-23 A CS-23 A CS-23 A CS-23 A CS-23 A CS-23 A

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FIXED OPERATION TIME 1 Pre-flight Check-list 5 8 8 12 12 12 Engine start warmup, 2 Embarkment 1 2 1 4 1 3 3 Climb to cruise level 10 20 20 20 20 20

(CT) 4 Eng.Shutdown,parking 1 2 1 2 2 2

5 Fixed flight Time Operation Disem[min] barkment 1 2 1 4 1 3 * Concerns both piston and turbo engines 1) ** The first figure means air-crew number as well as command station, the second the certificated number of passenger seating *** A - means with news amendments concerning reinforced safety and environment for travel aircraft 1) A single engine aircraft is assumed to be at the same safety level as multi engine airplanes and be approved for commercial transport of people (air-taxi). In order to do it, such an aircraft in case of engine failure has to catch up on the limited propulsion redundancy by other means of safety. Apart from enforcing propulsion reliability, emergency-landing possibilities should be extended, both, in classical as well as unconventional meaning (e.g. using a parachute emergency system). Preparing for such a possibility requires lower aircraft weight and speed in comparison to a multiengine aircraft. Such aircraft is estimated to have less than 1500 kg, cruising speed lower of 350 km/h and with the stalling speed of no more 100 km/h enabling safe emergency landing. In practice, this condition may be rationally fulfilled by the light, propeller driven aircraft. Table 12-2 EPATS aircraft avionics equipment list

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13. EPATS BUSINESS ASPECT

13.1 Introduction

EPATS system includes numerous different subsystem elements which are working in close cooperation and each of them opens a new market and a new business. These are: airports network, ATM-ATC System, EPATS air carriers, Customers – Providers Services network, Aircraft Service & Maintenance, GA Manufacturers. The Business Model represents various aspects of business, including its purpose, services, strategies, infrastructure, organizational structures, trading practices and operational processes and policies. It contains different components like value proposition, value network, revenues generation, etc. It deals with innovative products which diffuse into the society and economy. The business model is based on the developed business and marketing strategies, utilization of the values chain of activities and on the innovation diffusion process. EPATS is a very complex and large system depending on the development of technologies, economy, synergy and other transportation system. The development of a full business model of EPATS is not feasible in the framework of this study. Therefore we will present a framework of business description only.

13.2 Strategies

It is anticipated, that in every region with airfield and proper conditions there will be activities taken to create a local small aircraft transport system. Such activities should be initiated by local authorities, economical organizations, owners and administration of airports, small carriers, aviation organizations, etc. Creating technical and economical foundations – business plans, investment plans, legal basis analyses etc. – will be performed by proper institutions, Area Planning Offices and Research Centres. Process of creating Regional Small Aircraft Transport System is a long-term, innovative, diffusion process. It will be generated under favourable conditions, if local community is aware of its real capabilities, wherever opinion that flying small aircraft is expensive and reserved for VIPs and very wealthy people. Still too many people associates aviation with something not common and not very safe. Very few are aware tough, that modern aircraft consume less fuel per passenger kilometre, provide less expensive travel and better safety than cars. That is why it is very important to widely disseminate knowledge of modern small aircraft’s real capabilities and possibilities of their development. Most favourable conditions for Small Aircraft Transport System development are present in regions without fast communication connections, with airfields and functioning General Aviation at the same time, where aviation communities are strong. Such regions are common in every EU member state. In Poland such regions are, i.e. regions of Rzeszów, Mielec, Bielsko, Opole, Lublin, Koszalin, Mazury and so on. In these regions there are reasons to start Small Aircraft Transport. It is anticipated that carrier organizations and EPATS aircraft fleet home-bases providing transport services for people will be set up in every region. Such base would consist of various types of aircraft adapted to population’s income and needs: piston, turboprop and jets, 4 to 19 seaters. Initially modern aircraft, available currently on the market will be used, and as system develops, according to anticipated plans, these airplanes will be replaced with new types, designed with 21st century capabilities and needs in mind. It is predicted that such gradual

This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 76 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0 replacement of aircraft fleet might start in the twenties. At that time small aircraft transport will be available for medium class population. A new organizational model of Regional SATS and alliance structure is needed. It should consist of semiautonomous business units that are responsible for their own profitability. Such company must balance the autonomy of the business units with the need to coordinate some of their activities. Companies enter alliances to effectively meet the needs of cooperation and personal transportation coordination. Such alliance is also needed to assure aircraft maintenance and Flight Operation Quality Assurance (FOQA). Establishing Regional Small Aircraft Transport will require gradual modernization of small airfields. Equipment will have to be adapted to modern CNS systems, take off and landings in bad weather. Parking space and aircraft servicing must be provided. Appropriate personnel work and proper passenger service conditions have to be created. Modernization of small airfields must be carried out based on Joint European Union Requirements and Small Airfields Development Plan with financial support from European Commission and interested Country and Regions. It is estimated that funds for one small airfield modernization should value between over ten and several tens of millions of Euro. We envision public financing support of small carriers operations in the framework of PSO rules (Public Service Obligatory) established by EU Regulations 2408/92.

13.3 Services and target customers

Aircraft fleet structure, airport network in which they operate and reservation system is intended to provide access to EPATS transport system services to people now travelling to remote locations in home country or Europe by car or scheduled airlines not providing convenient connections. System users would be both hi-income peoples, already taking advantage of expensive services of Charter Companies and Aero-Taxi, as well as medium class population, who need to see real advantages in travelling small airplanes. Lately introduced in air transport, relatively cheap 5-7 seater VLJ’s widens demand for their service. It will remain, however an expansive mode of transport available to small fraction of population – 0,1 % (VIP’s, high-income population exceeding 70 Euro per hour). Introducing into system, along with VLJ’s, cheap and advanced 4-6 seater pistons and 10-19 commuter turboprops while employing interactive distribution network of transport services, providing effective use of aircraft, will enable decreasing travel costs to level below that of car travel. With short distance to airport it enables access to system services and creates conditions for partial replacement of car by an airplane. Main EPATS clients will by people taking short business trips to different domestic and intra- European regions, who are various organizations, companies, authorities or institutions employees, businessmen, managers, VIPs etc. These trips account for 20% of all remote trips (above 200 km) and are most often taken by small groups of 2-5 people who travel distances 200 to 1200 km. For these clients 4-5 seater pistons are suited – for lower income people, and jets – for higher income people. Most 10-19 seater commuter turboprop users will be inhabitants of remote regions, lacking high-speed travel connections taking trips to various regions for various reasons: family, professional, training, dealing with something, recreational etc. These trips are both one or several day trips. Until now inhabitants have been taking them by cars. Thanks to introducing interactive seat reservation system and “aircraft pooling” system it is possible to match

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13.4 EPATS organizational structure

EPATS Transportation Service includes the following activities areas: - Marketing, flight planning and fully interactive internet brokerage - Operator’s Flight planning and execution - Aircraft technical services - Aircraft Maintenance and Flight Operation Quality Assurance (FOQA)

Table 13-1 Operators and services. Operators Services Aircraft ownership Private Personal flight. Private Pilot Private, fractional License PPL Non Commercial Business travel. Commercial Public, Corporate, fractional Pilot License CPL Commercial Scheduled Public, On demand Private, Air Taxi Corporate Fractional Subscription Flights Air Transport Pilot License ATPL, CPL

One of the most important issues arising during new transportation system design process is securing network activity above the critical level of economic efficiency. The solution requires a thorough knowledge on current and forecasted passenger mobility distribution and intensity. This knowledge is usually scarce or hard to find in the low flow areas, e.g. between remote regions. It is one of reasons why air, as well as surface modes of transport develops in areas, where flow is intensive and well recognized. The effects of transport networks development in already well developed areas is leaving behind, in fact, the larger share of population. This discrepancy can be reduced by adjustment of transportation service to individual population demand. Preliminary analysis shows that it becomes possible by introducing small aircraft air transportation services supported by interactive information and ordering network that enables aircraft pooling at low density interregional passenger flow. On one hand, the system provides

This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 78 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0 instant access to high speed transport, on the other hand, it enables optimal aircraft utilization and higher load factor, by timely and directional transport demand pooling and adjusting aircraft type every time. Introduction of such a system will most probably revolutionize behaviour of travellers and modal split. Interactivity idea in EPATS-ITN is mainly based on possibility of including into EPATS-ITN information technology, which will appear as a result of SESAR [20] project. Introducing SESAR’s „lifecycle of Business Trajectory in which Trajectories will be expressed in all four (4D) dimensions” provides full information on where the aircraft are (in air or on the ground), what their flight plans are (long Term, mid/short Term, execution, post flight) and what their routes are and number of passengers on board. In SESAR’s ATM system, all aviation system components cooperate and possess full 4D information about others. There are neither any technical barriers to include an intelligent customer-passenger subsystem – Transport Service Supplier, which task would be the optimal use of EPATS system and optimal choice of transport mode to satisfy customer needs. Implementation of interactive internet network will bring several significant advantages: - Knowledge diffusion concerning small aircraft transport capabilities. - Increase of share of people participating in air transport sector. - Cheaper flights: fly one-way, pay for one-way only, similar to urban taxi cabs. - Increase of transport system energy and economy efficiency through better fleet allocation with multiplied annual volume and load factors closer to 100%. - Better use of airspace. - Facilitation of air traffic management and its monitoring. - Increase of regional accessibility levels.

13.5 EPATS operational concept

One of the main features of EPATS system conception is taking advantage of the internet network, introducing interactive air transport service ordering and tailoring it to planning and execution of business trajectory network described in D3 SESAR Chapter 2 The ATM Target Concept [13]. The EPATS-ITN Interactive Transportation Network will employ a Net-Centric method i.e. participating as a part of a continuously-evolving, complex community of people, devices, information and services interconnected by a communication network to achieve optimal benefit of resources and better synchronization of events and their consequences. System functioning scheme is shown on the chart (Fig. 4-3). The Interactive Transportation System enables interaction between Users (passengers) and Providers (TMC) through an interactive network. This system connects a customer directly to the Regional Station of Transportation Management Centre (TMC), which is the Provider and plans EPATS-ITN system service. Through the network a customer orders air transport from his origin to destination providing date and time of arrival, number of passengers and comfort class – determined by transportation time and ride quality as a derivative of value of time (wealth level). This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 79 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

TMC, gathering orders from the airport greater circle population area, analyses all orders and adjusts to them optimal aircraft type (the least generalized costs type), that can realize the order. The customer is informed about aircraft type, date and hour of flight departure and arrival, pick up time (when door-to-airport transport provided) and service price. Depending on the number of orders for a given connection, given day and hour, and passengers requirements the TMC offers adjusts services and appropriate aircraft. It might be a small, 4- seat aircraft with one passenger on board or a 19-seat airplane fully occupied. A flight may be ordered in various advance times. Earlier order allows more passengers going the same direction at the same time and, therefore, the ticket price could be lowered by using a larger aircraft (keeping load factor close to 100%). The system also allows for ordering on a very short time notice if a customer wishes to fly a small aircraft individually (similar to air- taxi) or is counting on vacant seats in larger aircraft flying the same Business Trajectory. The system gains new capabilities and leads to higher productivity, higher accessibility and satisfaction of passengers. It enables adjusting connections, schedule time and aircraft type to personal needs, and allows to accommodate fleet to regional demand and better aircraft utilization, both in terms of yearly flight hours and load factor. In consequence, the system contributes to more effective air traffic and fuel consumption and transportation costs per pax km reduction. The functions of EPATS-ITN Transportation Management Centre includes: - managing data-link with Regional Stations, - monitoring passenger traffic, - collecting and recording data, - managing data in real time, - collecting statistics about EPATS-ITN performance, - others to be defined. Creating such a system assumes: - A fleet large enough and a wide range of aircraft types satisfying various customer needs (from cheaper pistons to expensive jets). - Full information on current status of every aircraft in the system: where it is, what its flight plan is, how many passengers it has according to the plan and further information required for constant flight plan update. - Creating Customer – Service provider interfaces, optimization models and software allowing for optimal choice of air connection for certain group of passengers, certain route and certain time through dialog between Customer and Service provider’s Server. - Designing and creating EPATS Management System combined with SESAR’s Wide Information Management. - Designing internet network connecting Central European Server EPATS-ITN with all other components of the system and SWIM server (Results from DELIS project could be used [14]). - Creating European Central Data Base of EPATS-ITN aircraft including technical- operational data and transport service prices.

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- Creating Central Data Base of EPATS-ITN airports (which will be also utilized on board for safety purpose in emergency case – see SOFIA Program). Full information on passenger flow density of interregional travels should be a support for system realization. The support is expressed by number of passengers travelling in a year, month and day, from region “i” to region “j” with purpose “p”, using mode “m”, of income (wealth) category “v” (Nij,p,m,v(y,m,d)). Such information has to be provided for rational estimation of aircraft fleet structure. That is why we stress the significance of mobility surveys and analysis for appropriate transport mode development and particularly EPATS-ITN. To obtain such information, new methods of interregional traffic surveys should be employed, for example utilized in the Intelligent Ground Transportation System which use of Floating car data.

13.6 Value proposition

In chain of activities of individual EPATS elements carrying added value there are: industrial companies, research centres, airports and service base, ATM-ATC, carriers, technical service and maintenance stations, flying schools. Final values of this chain of actions are: value of products and services, employment, time saved during travels, added values resulting from increased access of people from remote areas to material and cultural goods, equalization of chances of region’s economic development, decreasing excessive personal car transport development which is getting more detrimental to environment, (terrain for building roads and highways, fuel consumption, exhaust gas and noise pollution, accidents), relieving air travel congestion in large airports areas and decreasing effects of traffic congestion.

13.7 EPATS aircraft production size and employment growth

Assuming demand for EPATS aircraft in 2025 will be 100 000 units, 70% of which would be produced in UE, 30% imported, assuming begin of production would be in year 2015, annual production would be about 7000 units. Analyses indicate that structure of production and average technical, economical and operational characteristics of these airplanes compared to typical car are as follows:

Table 13-2 Car and EPATS aircraft average technical and operational data. Specific Structure Typical Fuel Average Flight Yearly Average Life- Average Block Vehicles weight distance consump- Load Hours Productivity price span Seatings speed [kg] trips tion factor by year [pax km} [1000€] [years] [l/km] Car 4 1200 400 80 0,09 0,3 12000 30 15 Piston AC 5 1200 400 280 0,15 0,7 800 784000 350 30 Turboprop 15 3700 600 350 0,43 0,7 1200 4410000 2000 30 AC Jet AC 6 2000 1100 500 0,36 0,7 700 1470000 1500 30

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Amount of employment in aircraft production were estimated assuming value of produced product per one employee in aviation industry to be 100 000 Euro.

Table 13-3 Annual production, sale value, employment Annual Sale value [mln production Employee Euros] [units] Piston AC 6000 2100 21000 Turboprop AC 2300 4600 46000 Jet AC 1700 2550 25500 TOTAL 10000 9250 92500

Assuming that there are 3 employees in transport services per every EPATS airplane there will be roughly 300 000 employees. To sum up, employment in whole system might reach 400 000 employees

13.8 EPATS productivity, time and value saved by European population in travel

With taken assumptions of annual flights number and seating load factor taking into account effects of implementing interactive EPATS service system, predicted amount of transport work is:

309 mln of passengers and 173, 5 bln pax.km Time saved on replacing personal car travel with EPATS airplane was calculated by dividing annual aircraft productivity, which a car with passengers would have to do, by mean car velocity and from the result is subtracted time of passengers travelling a car, needed to achieve the same productivity.

Table 13-4 Forecasted fleet productivity and saved time. Pax.km by Number of Number of Saved time year [mln passengers Aircraft [mln hours] pkm] [mln pax] Piston AC 60000 47040 118 420 Turboprop AC 23000 101430 169 978,075 Jet AC 17000 24990 23 262,395 100000 173460 309 1660,47

The calculation show that replacing personal car with EPATS airplane on inter-regional trips in Europe would allow to save time lost in personal transport, which is 1660 mln hours, however, addendum time lost in car travel for necessary rest and sleep, which may be several times higher, is not taken into account. Assuming mean time value in EU to be 10 Euro per hour yields: 16,6 billion saved Euros

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13.9 Saved fuel

The quantity of saved fuel by shifting long distance car travel to EPATS is due to better airplane energy effectiveness. See “Air transport efficiency and its measures” For forecasted EPATS productivity 173460 mln pax.km the quantity of fuel saved in comparison with car execution is as follows:

Table 13-5 Saved fuel. Fuel saved [mln Ton] Piston AC 1,17 Turboprop AC 2,69 Jet AC -0,20 TOTAL 3,66 mln ton

13.10 Material saved Material saved is due to the difference of material effectiveness of various vehicles. At the level of transport system, we assume that it is the weight of material, needed to transport 1 passenger-kilometre in full life cycle, measured in kg/pax.km. Material effectiveness is calculated according to the following relations: Effectiveness = vehicle weight / (life cycle x yearly flight hours x travel speed x number of seats x load factor) The differences in material efficiency among smaller and Langer aircraft comes from different assumptions of yearly flight hours, what is supported by their purpose – small aircraft are mainly used as air-taxis, larger – for regular flights. Average, absolute values are: 0,14 for small and 0,025 kg per 1000 passenger-kilometres for larger. The differences are slight and in comparison to the one of car can be omitted (car: 10 kg per 1000 pax.km, that is 2 ranks higher).

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Aircraft and car Material effectiveness

0,3 Yearly flight time 600 h Yearly flight time 1800 h Wykł. (Yearly flight time 1800 h) 0,25 Car materials effectiveness:

0,2 Ef car = 10 kg/1000 pas.km Aircraft seatings < 10 0,15

kg/1000 pas.km kg/1000 0,1

Aircraft seatings > 10 0,05

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Seatings

Fig. 13-1 Material effectiveness

The material saved annually, by replacing car travel by aircraft is calculated according to the following equation: Annual Material saved = Annual aircraft productivity [pax.km] x (car material effectiveness – aircraft material effectiveness) The results of calculation for data given above are as follows:

Table 13-6 Saved material

Material saved by year

[Tonnes] Piston AC 311200 Turboprop AC 673363,3 Jet AC 165466,7 TOTAL: 1150030 Tonnes

If we total the material use with land consumed by roads, highways, parking places and other materials used for motorization infrastructure, then we clearly see how great benefits is brought by passenger air transport, considering land use.

13.11 Saved ground area

Analysis shows, that additional ground area, occupied by roads and parking, needed to realize additional transport work of 1 bln pax.km amounts 81000 ha. (810 km2), while the same transport work for EPATS does not need any additional ground area. Then, realizing additional passenger transport work 173,460 bln pax.km by air we can save 2 ground area: 173,46 x 810 = 140616 km 13.12 Impact on environment

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However in the Report “Air transport efficiency and its measures” the impact of air transportation on environment was carry out through costs externalities evaluation on the basis of American Research. The results of these are shown below:

Car-Aircraft externalities costs comparison

0,0250 Car Aircraft

0,0200

0,0150 $/pas.km 0,0100

0,0050

0,0000 Traffic congestion Local air pollution Crash Fuel externalities Roadway costs Traffic services Barrier effect Noise pollution externalities Externalities categories

Fig. 13-2 Externalities costs comparison

13.13 Financing

EPATS program includes various research development and economical areas of activities which will be carried out autonomously, but will realize the same strategic goal in tight collaboration of all participants. Activities areas include:

- Modernization of regional and local airport network (including technical service of aircraft).

- Development of ATM and ATC systems.

- Development of Interactive Transport Service Network: Customers – Providers.

- Organization of Regional EPATS carriers.

- Development of aircraft production.

- Unification and adaptation of regulations to new EPATS needs.

Every above mentioned activity area must have its strategic development program on Union and domestic level and draft development programs on regional, local and research centre (Aircraft manufacturing plant and other economic and research organizations) level. Establishment and realization of programs is independent, but public funding – Union or domestic is conditioned on realization of strategic program goals. Some of these activity areas have already been partially realized as part of European Framework Programs, i.e. SESAR and CESAR programs, or as part of domestic programs, i.e.

This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 85 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0 programs of local and regional airports modernization. These programs are neither coordinated nor assigned to any common plan or goal. Some European GA manufacturers are also carrying out their own development programs independently, but their outcome are unable to effectively compete with the U.S. GA industry, largely subsidized by federal government. In area of small aircraft transport service changes are observed in air taxi firms and corporations, mainly increase of fleet of jets for high income customers, while large amount of services for medium class population is abandoned. Large share of cost in these enterprises are brokerage services costs. Organization of EPATS carriers based on local airports must begin from the base and with authorities and economic organizations cooperation. The few air taxi firms in Europe are based on larger airports in large city agglomerations and their offer is targeted at small groups of clients. Existing legal regulations in European Civil Aviation, particularly GA contain many gaps, do not follow technical development and demand for Technical Advanced Aircraft (TAA) and new types of air transport, which is one of important obstacles to development of personal aviation in Europe. Each area of EPATS will be developed in individual countries and regions of EU differently with different preferences of means and ways of system implementation. It shall depend on actual region’s accessibility to fast means of transport, existing aviation infrastructure, level of population’s income and finding a solution to difficulties of funding the development of small aircraft transport. It is predicted that system will grow in mid-developed regions, devised of fast connections with other regions and having unused airports, active General Aviation, and community interested in air transport. Convenient access to small aircraft transport, ensured by short distance to airport, easy ordering of flight thanks to interactive seating reservation service and reasonable prices will lead to fast spreading of the new way of travelling. It is assumed that EPATS will be developed step by step, reaching full development in year 2025. Being aware of public character of transport and above mentioned social benefits resulting from its implementation it is completely rationalized that the system should be public funded, particularly by European Union and member states developing system. As of now there is not enough data to fully present draft funding of EPATS development. It is only possible to approximately estimate amount of funds required for some research on more important system development areas:

Modernization of local and regional airport network. Apart from comparatively small cost of elaborating the project, adapting an average airport and its technical infrastructure to EPATS requirements is an investment worth over ten to several tens of Euro. Assuming the need of modernization of two thirds of existing in Europe 2100 airports in following 20 years, which is 70 airports yearly, annual funds for airports modernization in European Union will reach several billion of Euro.

Development of ATM and ATC systems is realized as part of SESAR program funded by EC which spent … Euro on the program. Taking into account EPATS impact on ATM-ATC might lead to the need to increase these funds.

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Development of Interactive Transport Service Network: Customer – Provider Elaborating and implementing fully automated (replacing Brokerage firm) Interactive Transport Service Network coupled with SESAR System Wide Information Management requires funds of several million Euro. Finding a way of realization and funding this very important task to EPATS development is an open issue.

Organization of regional EPATS carriers. Organization, investment involved in aircraft purchase and initiation of transport operations ought to be subsidized by regional and local budgets in the framework of the PSO rules – EU Regulation 2408/92. Carriers might by private and corporate companies depending on existing conditions present in region. Starting a service enterprise with a few or over ten aircraft, its estimated value will range between several and over ten million Euro. Capital needed to set up enterprise depends on mode of aircraft’s purchase.

Development of aircraft production Development of EPATS aircraft production in EU is strictly connected to setting up manufacturing of aircraft meeting EPATS requirements, competitive to its American counterpart. Moving such aircraft into production requires research works ranging from study, design and manufacturing to testing and certification. These works realization period lasts on average 5 years and costs involved range from 30 to 150 million Euro depending in aircraft category and requirements. Assuming that meeting the whole range of transport needs that EPATS fulfils requires 6 categories of modern aircraft (4 to 19 seaters) then necessary funds are approximately 500 million Euro, which yields 100 million yearly. It is obvious that such funds are beyond European GA industry’s abilities. Thus the conclusion, that avoiding almost 100% import of aircraft from the U.S. requires funds from European Union and creating appropriate means for doing so (limiting funding to research works is not stimulating enough for GA industry to take up risk of a new project).

Unification and adaptation of legal and organization regulations to new requirements of EPATS The most important role in this area is played by EASA. Implementing new technologies both in equipment and service, usage requirements, modes of aircraft’s ownership, ATM systems, environmental and safety requirements etc. requires efficient adaption of legal regulations to new conditions and broadening of EASA activity. It is postulate that EASA’s activity range and powers ought to be more closely the same as FAA. Introduction of this idea requires substantial organization changes and increasing employment which means that its budget needs to be increased. In the end this will be very profitable.

13.14 Investments and benefits

Comparing social benefits resulting from EPATS implementation with funds required for its realization, it is clearly visible, that benefits outbalance required contribution.

Investments Total contribution for EPATS implementation consists mainly of funding modernization of local and regional airports, design and implementation of new aircraft, remaining costs are only few percent of total cost, roughly 2 to 3 billion Euro yearly. Segmentation of these funds to European and domestic or private and public is open for discussion.

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Benefits:

 Creating highly qualified employment opportunities for 400 000 people.

 Saving 1,66 bln hours yearly in trans regional travels worth 16,6 bln Euro.

 Saved fuel: 3,66 mln ton yearly.

 Saved structural material on replacing cars with airplanes:1,15 mln ton.

 Saved ground area for parking and roads: 141 000 km2.

 Decrease in accidents and pollution.

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14. EPATS DEVELOPMENT PHASES

14.1 Issues area

The EPATS project is the beginning of long term, wide and multidisciplinary international transport program for Europe, which is only possible to accomplish with the support of the EU Commission, Member States and local authorities and, also, by cooperating with business and research entities among which, especially, aviation industry and its research and development branches. It is crucial to solve the transport problems followed by the need of action and research in various sectors, particularly: A. Space and population mobility management. It is especially important to possess deeper knowledge about unused transport infrastructure, namely airports and airfields, and about population mobility entailing flow intensity and structure among regions and cities (outlaying the main transport networks) national as well as European. B. Environmental protection. Despite much of research in this area, still, there is a shortage of credible and detailed results of comparison analysis between cars and aircraft concerning the scale of negative impact on the environment and natural resources. C. Air traffic control and management systems. New, appearing technologies need to be applied and adjusted to future needs of air traffic enlarged by the EPATS introduction. In particular, SESAR program realization is important. D. Airport infrastructure. It is important to prepare a coherent classification and database of all European airports and airfields, which will be used for airspace management. Furthermore, a European strategic small and medium airports development and modernization program has to be formulated adapting airports to new ATM-ATC and CNS technologies and to the needs of regions. E. Research and development of the EPATS aircraft. Main objectives will focus on further improvement of small aircraft characteristics simultaneously lowering costs of production and operating. All aviation domains require a wide research: from modelling and aerodynamics through production technologies and pilot training including. Efficient use of the results of the research is conditioned by their integration and application in particular aircraft design project, which then have to be tested in flight. Consequently, research programs should strictly pertain to aircraft development plans. F. General aviation propulsion. Shortage in production and development of small aircraft engine for propeller driven as well as jet aircrafts is a significant problem for the development of general aviation in Europe. The main questions regarding general aviation development in the EU, including EPATS, is: should European aviation industry rely on its own production, followed by initiatives in the sector, or accept import strategy from the USA? The European Commission should answer to this question of strategic nature (basing on analysis of engine industry), because it is corresponding to one of the most crucial challenges given to the European aviation: to become competitive at the World market, especially towards North America. G. General aviation equipment. In the area of electronic equipment, the problem is similar to propulsion. Although the European market exists, most of the equipment is imported form the USA due to lower prices. Therefore cockpit production is very expensive in

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relation to other parts. Unification of equipment and cooperation with car industry could be a possible solution. H. Aircraft production. One of the main objectives is to lower the costs of production (2-3 times in 20 year). It is only possible in the large serial production system extended by a deeper cooperation among aviation industry companies. It is assumed that the consolidation of European general aviation industry will advance, basing on the European Technology Platform, for which European Commission projects a new instrument entitled Joint Technology Initiative. I. Transport services. For cities and region functioning the EAPTS serves a social role (i.e. high speed transport, when other modes are unavailable) as well as behavioural control role in the direction to reduce interregional and international car travel. The state should be interested in high speed, efficient, operating mode of transport reflecting the national needs. As a public good, air transport should be clearly legislated in the frame of regulations of the system. The most important elements of the system are regulations concerning the EPATS organizers, rules of operators access and rules of public financing. A base for organization of the EPATS in a region should be an adequate, local, long-term transport plan relying on previous mobility and travellers flow research and supported by cost-benefit analysis. J. Regulation

14.2 Major investigation elements of the EPATS R&D vision

The areas of technological improvement for small aircraft are similar to those for large aircraft, but some unique design and technology requirements result from the smaller size, lower weight and wing loading, shorter stage lengths, lower altitude operation and different missions. The small aircraft technology R&D which address the EPATS aircraft should explore all areas in which advanced technology application could provide improved passenger acceptance, increased safety, decreased operating costs and better environment. Although some improvements in future EPATS aircraft can be achieved merely by utilizing available technology it is clear, that to meet the EPATS objective news advances in technology have to be achieved. Some topics listed here underneath are realized as part of SESAR and CESAR Program.

Infrastructure "Smart" airports with higher utility and safety in more weather conditions, along with free flight procedures for expanded AS capacity, and airport utility, including:

. Satellite navigation approaches to all landing areas, without requirements for control towers and radar, and fully digital flight, traffic, and destination information systems. . Free Flight in the European Airspace System architecture for EPATS airports. . Flight Information Services (FIS), broadcast by terrestrial or satellite systems. . Traffic Information Services (TIS), including Automatic Dependent Surveillance, broadcast by aircraft, terrestrial, or satellite systems. . Destination Information Services (DIS) for intermodal connectivity, vehicle and operator/passenger services, via terrestrial or satellite systems. . Near-all-weather operations at non-towered airports without radar coverage. . 3,500 to 5,000 foot runways, with marking and lighting.

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. Airports within a 15 minute drive of communities served. . Safety services.

Aircraft Aircraft technology objectives are planned to achieve advancements in affordability, safety, ease-of-use, airport utility, and includes the following:

. Simplified and intuitive flight controls, including decoupling. . Envelope limiting (Active load control) and ride smoothing concepts. . Active flow control for improved cruise & low speed performance. The objective is to use control surfaces of an a/c wing to adapt its configuration to the various phases of the flight mission for increased efficiency and to gust and manoeuvres for reduced loads. . Aircraft fineness ratio and lifting enhancement (higher cruising speed – lower stalling speed). . Useful weight to takeoff weight enhancement. Multi layer/multi-function architectures should be used to decrease the negative impact on weight deriving from ancillary functions requested to the structure (lightning protection, electrical grounding, and thermal insulation). The following sensors technologies are envisaged for consideration: Fibre Bragg-grating (FBG), sensitive coatings (SCS), environmental degradation monitoring sensors (EDMS), micro-wave sensors, acoustic-ultrasonic (AU), acoustic emission (AE), imaging ultrasonic (IU). . Airframe modular design, highly integrated processes, one shot process for example, by manufacturing a one-piece fuselage section. . New concept configuration (plan form) to accommodate other systems integration. . Crashworthy airframes. . Comfort improvement (ride quality, noise level, cabin space, convenience). . Minimum maintenance labour. . Automotive synergies in manufacturing, including automation in integrated composite structures. . Per passenger cost operations competitive with automobiles on day trips of 300 miles or more.

Aircraft systems . Highway in the Sky (HITS) graphical flight path operating systems, including graphical weather, navigation, traffic, terrain, and airspace depictions. . Hazardous weather and ice-tolerant avoid and exit operating procedures. . Advanced pilot vehicle interface systems, including artificial/synthetic vision for "electronic" visual meteorological conditions. . Satellite-based communications, navigation, and surveillance for ubiquitous flight and destination information systems. . On-board access to travel information for seamless air/ground and mass/personal transportation intermodal connectivity. . Mission management and trajectory control. . Improve safety, handling, and ride quality while reducing pilot workload and maintenance costs. Potential advanced-technology applications include fly-by-wire or fiber-optics controls, gust-load alleviation technologies, low-cost icing protection, and improved navigation and guidance equipment. . One Network of “Sensors & Actuators” to Actively Manage the Airflow and Loads Across the Whole Flight Regime of the Product.

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. Embedded health-monitoring systems that will allow the airplane to self-monitor and report maintenance requirements to ground-based computer systems.

Aircraft propulsions . New engines, burning unleaded fuel, with single-lever power controls, intuitive diagnostics, and longer TBOs. . Next generation propulsion systems, including non-hydrocarbon and hybrid concepts. . Quiet non-hydrocarbon propulsion, low emissions combustion system & alternative fuel. . New small turbine and compression-ignition engines. Acquisition price: Piston < 10 000 €, Turbine < 100 000 €. . Advanced propellers.

Training Simplified and affordable pilot training through advanced technologies, including: . Unified instrument-private pilot training curriculum. . On-board, embedded training capabilities. . Training time and cost commensurate with Public School implementation of "Fliers education" along with Drivers education. . Internet-based, and simulation-enhanced training systems. . Pilots are able to maintain all necessary competencies and proficiencies for EPATS Highway in the Sky system flight operations, within constraints imposed by typical professional and personal time schedules.

The development and deployment of EPATS infrastructure technologies require innovative EU members partnership mechanisms. The goal of such a partnership would be to establish the EU requirements and planning templates for a European system of smaller airports for the EPATS. The strategic premise for the partnership would be to "treat the national public use airports as a national economic strategic infrastructure (like highways & public utilities)." The products of this partnership would include the means for development and deployment of EPATS operating capabilities.

14.3 The key players and organizations

The EPATS Program makes a significant contribution to achieving the objectives set in the ACARE SRA (The Highly Customer Oriented Air Transport System), contributes to redressing the critical situation in General Aviation industry, have a considerable impact on the transport development and European economy. The EPATS is a public good, and should be realized in a public-private partnership at the European level. The EPATS is an industry-wide initiative, in which all European aviation industry actors, research community and relevant public authorities participate or are represented. They are: - Regional & Local authorities and commercial organizations. - Aircraft manufacturers - the major actors - specify, develop and provide the EPATS aircraft for the market. - Small engines, systems & equipment manufacturers – they specify, develop and provide all the equipment for aircraft manufacturers. - Personal, business and small aircraft operators.

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- Airport owners and air navigation services. - Research Centre – analyzes the requirements and feasibility, and conduct research and validation activities. - Regulators Bodies – European and National. - The EC participates to the funding and strategic orientation of the EPATS. The Commission translates into community legislation the required synchronization and harmonization. - The social partners are included in all phases of the process, particularly in the development of infrastructure, in order to make sure that program deployment of public resources are properly addressed.

14.4 The key EU GA manufacturers

Table 14-1 Key manufacturers

Manufacture Country Short

1 Dassault Falcon France

2 Diamond Aircraft Industries Gmbh Austria DIAM Czech 3 EVEKTOR, spol. S r.o. EVEK Republic 4 Grob Aerospace AG Germany GROB

5 Piaggio Aero Industries S.p.A Italia PIAGGIO

6 Pilatus Aircraft Ltd Switzerland PILAT

7 Polskie Zakłady Lotnicze Sp. z o.o. Poland PZL M WSK "PZL RZESZOW" S.A. 8 Poland PZL Rz Engines Manufacturer 9 WSK "PZL ŚWIDNIK" S.A. Poland PZL Św

10 EADS SOCATA France SOCATA Czech 11 ZLIN, Moravan Aeroplanes In ZLIN Republic

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14.5 The EPATS development phases

The EPATS development consists of 4 phases:

14.5.1 Phase I Studies and analyses

Realized in the framework of Specific Support Action Proposal (SSA) of the FP-6, basing on the Contract signed in December 2006 with the European Commission and the Consortium Agreement signed with the following partners: - Institute of Aviation – Poland (the Coordinator) - Eurocontrol - Europe - M3 Systems - France - National Aerospace Laboratory – Netherlands - Polskie Zakłady Lotnicze sp. z o.o. w Mielcu – Poland - Rzeszów University of Technology - Poland - WSK PZL Rzeszów S.A – Poland - Budapest University of Technology & Economics – Hungary - Windrose Air JetCharter GmbH – Germany - Ad Cuenta B.V - Netherlands The studies involve: - Socioeconomic and population mobility analyses. - Airports and aircraft database adapted for modelling purpose. - Modelling and forecasting demand for the EPATS aircraft. - The EPATS impact on air traffic control and management systems analyses, preliminary systems requirements. - CNS and ATM-ATC new systems impact on the EPATS airport analyses, general airport requirements. - Aircraft general requirements satisfying social demand, and feasibility studies. - Research program and implementation roadmap. The objectives of this phase are: - Identify the needs and potential demand for such transport system. - Define EPATS requirements (aircraft, airports, ATM) up to 2020 and beyond. - Identify globally solutions to meet EPATS requirements. - Produce the detailed Research and Technology and validation work program, including planning costs and priorities, as required to meet the requirements. - Elaborate a Development and Implementation Roadmap (a detailed and phased implementation and deployment plan including a cost benefit analysis of the programme, assessment of the appropriate governance structure, proposals for the legislative, financial and regulatory framework required for successful deployment).

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- Elaborate assumptions to Joint Strategic Vision Document (included in the Final Report of the definition phase) as a basis for European Technology Platform setting up. - Gather all the European actors of small air transport industry and provide a coordinated and synchronized development of a new generation Air Transportation System. It is assumed that the R&D Program will be consulted with aviation stakeholders, the Consortium CESAR and SESAR and presented to ACARE. In relation to the High Level Target Concepts (HLTCs) defined by ACARE as: highly customer oriented, time efficient and cost efficient transport system, it will be recommended to introduce it in the FP-7 and FP-8. The Roadmap is a 25 years strategy, which aims at integrating proposals of many activities and works needed for the development of the EPATS As these activities and works concern European and Regional transport development and policy, the roadmap should be addressed to key players, aviation stakeholders and the EC Directorates, and particularly: Energy & Transport, Regional Policy and Research. The Roadmap attempts to plan and forecast the necessary steps towards achieving the related goals (European and National inter-city and inter-regional direct air connection) and the EPATS implementation. It will be developed by consulting regional authorities, suitable European Aviation Industry and operators.

For durable integration of the participants and research activities in the EPATS, a Network of Excellence (NoE) (Research institutes, Universities, Industry, SMEs) will be considered and proposed.

Table 14-2 EPATS roadmap sectors and key players (The value chain) KEYS PLAYERS AND EPATS ROADMAP SECTORS STAKEHOLDERS EC, State and regional 1. Interregional and international mobility surveys. Authorities, Universities, Modelling intercity passenger flow. Research Centres 2. Studying and modelling transportation and travel cost

and passenger mode choice in European Community. EC, GA Manufacturers, 3. Research and Development of EPATS aircraft (from Universities, Research research to test flight and type certification) Centres, 4. New General Aviation propulsion systems Engines Manufacturers Avionics and equipments 5. New General Aviation avionics and equipments Manufacturers 6. EPATS aircraft production. GA Manufacturers, Suppliers EU, State and Regional 7. EPATS airports infrastructure Authorities, public and private

organizations 8. EPATS Air Traffic Control and Management Eurocontrol, EASA

9.EPATS operation and services Operators and services organizations 10. Training Training Centres

11. EPATS adapted Regulations (type certification, EASA, National Aviation

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KEYS PLAYERS AND EPATS ROADMAP SECTORS STAKEHOLDERS airports, FCC, ATM, OPS, operational) Agency 12. EPATS organization, management, funding, EC, State Members, Regional financing, support Authorities

13. Regional Programme EPATS Implementation. Regional Authorities

14. Interactions between air and surface transport, energy, Universities, Research Centres safety, environment and society

The EPATS development and implementation project will take a holistic transport systems approach in addressing the challenges, by considering the interactions of all activities sectors and integrating of new concepts and technologies within a socio-economic and policy context. The R&D Program and Roadmap will include the full range of research, development, implementation as well as cooperation and policy related activities planning. The R&D will comprise activities centered on the multidisciplinary integration and validation of technologies and operations at a system level – aircraft type certification and system validation. Comparison analysis concerning ecologic and safety characteristics of car and aircraft will be carried out and relevant research works will be proposed. The Roadmap will describe the activities aiming at setting a mechanism and developing strategies for the implementation of the EPATS Program. We assume the EPATS will be considered as a large-scale aeronautic and air transport project and then, like SESAR, should be implemented by separate mechanisms. The deadline of this phase is projected on 2010. It is unlikely, nor indeed necessary, to alter all parts of the air transport value chain. Neither may it be possible to directly affect some parts of it. It is considered that the best approach to strengthen it would be to alter the institutional environment (i.e., regulations, how it operates and the financial framework) in which the air transport system responds with new models to deliver the needs of the end customers. (SESAR WP2). The deployment of the EPATS target concept should be progressive.

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Fig. 14-1 EPATS studies scheme This document has been produced by the EPATS Consortium under EU FP6. Copy right and all other rights are reserved by the EPATS Consortium Contractors Page 97 of 124 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap Document Number: EP D5.2-EPATS_Roadmap-V0

14.5.2 Phase II Research and development

It is assumed, that basing on the results of studies phase, a rationale for the EPATS project continuation will be shown. Then, accompanied by an understanding and support of the air transport policy lobbies, there will be a foundation to elaborate and present research and development projects in the framework of European research programs. The EPATS works should be reflected in strategic plans of the DG EC – Research, Energy and Transport, Regional Policy, as well as in the adequate plans of the respective Member States, at the central and local level. Research and development topics will be proposed to 7th and 8th EU Research Frameworks and national research frameworks according to the prepared roadmap. The topics will refer to solutions resulting from the assumed EPATS requirements (aircrafts, ATM-ATC, airports) and from a need to deepen knowledge concerning the interregional and intercity EU transport demand. It is assumed, that topics will cover full range of indispensable research for system implementation, i.e. from concept and model analyses through design to flight test and certification. The research and development will be carried out using instruments applied in European and national programs (IP, STREP, NoE). The output of this phase should be new system projects and types of certified aircraft according to the requirements and adequate to the EU society needs of the Twenties of the 21st century. The time horizon for this milestone is projected until the year of 2020 with a lot of institutions and companies involved all over the EU. The R&D management will be in a responsibility of the dedicated European Consortium. The organization has to be strictly connected with the implementation phase. See the EPATS implementation phase.

14.5.3 Phase III Experimental EPATS implementation

Preliminary studies indicate that for many European regions the implementation of the EPATS using the existing aircraft (FAR, JAR certified after 1995), air traffic management systems and airports network could be rational and beneficiary for the society. Considering the aforementioned and long run of research until 2020, it is rational a gradual preparation of system implementation, using current possibilities of general aviation and infrastructure. Many regions and European airports are interested in air transportation services. For most of them classical regional airliner services is unavailable due to too low travel intensity and profitability or to inadequate runway. Airlines escaping unnecessary costs leave unprofitable regions behind. The most important problem of fast interregional transport is lack of knowledge concerning interregional and intercity passenger flow, concerning travel demand and possibilities to satisfy it. It is possible to estimate passenger flow and demand level for interregional transport, and evaluation of the EPATS system rationale by using models applied in the first phase concerning the EPATS aircraft demand forecast model and passenger flow analysis.

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The EPATS introduction in regions assumes the following main steps:

- Inventory of interregional, national and European connections and accessibility analysis. - Inventory of existing aviation infrastructure and investments costs evaluation. - Interregional flow travellers analysis and surveys (particularly for personal car travellers) – compilation of current and forecasted passenger flow map, applied to cities and regions located at the distance more than 300 km. - Compilation of socioeconomic and spatial data and changes forecasted until 2020 (calibrated for modelling purpose, and local income Lorenz Curve) - Aircraft type determination, fulfilling FAR-JAR regulations with amendments up to year 1995, which are to be taken under consideration in travel costs modelling. - Organization of air transport service and way of its financing. See “Communication from the commission. Community guidelines on financing of airports and start-up aid to airlines departing from regional airports”. (2005/c 312/01). - Modelling and flow travellers simulation, and definition of capacity and structure of aircraft fleet, which are the most rational for the region. - The EPATS operators and services organization. - The EPATS implementation design of investment. - Cost and benefit analysis for investment project. - Decision of initiation. The following are involved in this phase: local authorities, commercial institutions, regulators authorities, research and development centres, airport owners, air carriers associations, investors. This phase organizers are geographically adequate authorities responsible for public transportation, private or public-private companies. The implementation of the EPATS in regions should be supported and financed by the European Union in the framework of regional and transport policy and it should reflect in strategic plans of transport development in respective Member States.

14.5.4 Phase IV The EPATS implementation – technologies development and deployment

This phase will require a completely new approach to the production of small aircraft, air traffic systems, equipment service and use, pilot training and security. Two streams will emerge: public stream, providing scheduled and chartered air transport service, including air- taxi and private owners and users’ stream operating aircraft according to different rules.

Large serial aircraft production, shaped similarly as car industry, will force more unification and standardization, will multiply cooperation alliances and it will, simultaneously, contribute to closer general aviation industry and supply market integration. European policy should support this trend as well.

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The development and deployment of EPATS requires a dedicated public-private partnership mechanism that enables coherent, large-scale legal structures to be set up to provide the necessary environmental conditions and leadership to achieve the planned objective. Such a mechanism could be the new instrument, Joint Technology Initiative, dedicated to European Technology Platforms proposed by European Commission (see: Commission Staff Working Document, Report on European Technology Platforms and Joint Technology Initiatives: Fostering Public-Private R&D Partnerships to Boost Europe’s Industrial Competitiveness, Brussels, 10.6.2005, SEC(2005) 800). Such EC partnership could support the planned interregional mobility surveys as well as design and deployment of EPATS demonstration projects (phase III) within selected travel markets. These demonstrations would begin with EPATS consumer analyses to quantify the market, the potential traffic and the technology priorities. Such demonstrations are contemplated in the planning for the EPATS Program.

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Table 14-3 EPATS phases development timetable Phases 2010 2015 2020 2025 1 Studies and analyses EPATS Technology Platform creation

2 Research and Development

3 Experimental implementation

4 EPATS technology development and deployment – aircraft investments SESAR technology development and deployment EPATS airports investments Regulation adaptation

aircraft Aircraft specifica- development engineer- certifica- market development tion (safety ing tion concept)

Infrastructure defini- design construction deploy- tion (airport net) ment

require- new testing in ATM deployment ments methods simulations

require- service network Service market ments development

airspace new usage, follow-up Regulation requirements taxation, actions etc.

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Fig. 14-2 EPATS timetable by areas activities

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14.6 European Personal Aircraft Development Platform (EPADP)

There are around 700 operators utilizing 2000 aircraft on the European market of business aviation. Around 900 of the aircraft are jets, 600 are turboprop and 500 are piston. Eurocontrol forecast assumes an increase up to 3010 aircraft in the next 10 years, where most of the aircraft will be jets reaching the number of 2060. The forecast assumes, that 13,5% out of 928 of business jets will be delivered to the European market. It is one of the most moderate opinions, comparing to forecasts form different sources. E.g. Pratt&Whitney predicts annual deliveries of VLJs at 1220 and Cessna estimates it at more than 1400. 80% of more than 2000 aircraft in Europe are of American origin and 15% only were manufactured in Europe (Falcon, TBM 700, P180, PC 12). Every year import to Europe reaches the value of a few hundred million Euro and grows constantly. Recently, a newly founded Irish air-taxi company JETBIRD has decided to order 100 of Brazilian VLJs Phenom worth 280 million USD. The abovementioned forecasts grasp the nearest years and base on the extrapolation of recent air transport development tendencies. They omit newly appearing demand and possibilities of wider use of small aircraft, especially in remote regions outside main communication channels, using personal car transport for long distance. So far EPATS analyses show, that the size of European personal and business aircraft fleet may be 10 times larger in 2020-2030. Europe noticed, that the small aircraft transport will dynamically develop and tend to satisfy the growing demand for fast door-to-door travel of the growing number of people. Programs preparing air traffic management and control systems and navigation for intensified traffic are currently realized (GALILEO, SESAR). Regional and local authorities push harder for establishing air transport connections at local airports. The fundamental issue that European General, and especially personal Aviation industry faces nowadays is lowering aircraft user costs keeping high safety, comfort and environmental standards. Manufacturers are expected to lower production costs (to American level) increasing quality and including modern solutions simultaneously. Many development and research programs assume cost or other cost influencing factors decrease. It e.g. 50% decrease of engine price, 20% decrease of weight, 10% decrease of fuel consumption, 30% decrease of production start up, etc. These figures cannot be used for objectives evaluation as reference points; they provide, however, directions for further development. A rationality of a new product initiation depends on the demand forecast accuracy, what is related to the costs of its manufacture and utilization. Using tools for early stage costs estimation is a fundamental condition for manufacture start up. Cost estimation includes full product life cycle and is done and controlled in every phase of development. From product analyses and requirements formulation to its market introduction. The more important accuracy of estimation, the higher costs of related decisions. Early stage decisions have the strongest impact on later costs. There are 3 stages in the aircraft development cycle, after which very costly decisions are undertaken.

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These are: studies and ideas, aircraft preliminary design, construction design including tests and certifications. Economic analyses are undertaken during every stage together with technical works. New ideas, technology and methodology research is done by Manufacturers simultaneously with aircraft modernization and development. These efforts are procured by universities, research institutes and industrial research and development units. Fair amount of these proceedings is realized in the European Framework Programs. It is obvious that it is rational only when the outcomes are used by the industry in specific aircraft and leave trace on the market. It is important to be sure while initiating research and development studies in the area of small aircraft that the results will be used in small aircraft manufacture and the aircraft finally reach the market. The actual situation of the European General Aviation manufacturing industry is indicating that the industry is unable to compete without financial help with the American subsidized aircraft industry. The fundamental condition recovering Europe origin small aircraft competitiveness is providing them with the same conditions as in the US. European support for small aircraft development cannot be limited to the basic research and development studies financing only without securing sustainable development of small aircraft. There have to be initiated governmental and EU studies leading to revitalization of the European General Aviation, similar as in the USA. Taking advantage of the existing EU tools, complex development of small aircraft should be included into strategic EU programs. Apart from research and development alluded in the point 14.2 and proposed for realization in the VIIth Framework Program, we support establishing European Personal Aircraft Development Platform – EPADP. This platform would fulfil Joint Technology Initiative JTI formulated by the European Commission, especially: - strategic importance of the topic and presence of clear deliverables - existence of market failure - concrete evidence of community value added - evidence of substantial long-term industry commitments - inadequacy of existing Community instruments. Main task of the platform would be: - determining small aircraft directions of development and rules of its financing - legal initiatives favoring EPATS development - creating environment for companies and research centers integration - organization of competitions for personal aircraft designs fulfilling the EU standards - coordinating and surveillance of development studies.

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It is assumed, that competitions for aircraft designs would be a tool enabling financing of aircraft development in companies and could include different stages of development, e.g.: - regional mobility and personal aircraft demand studies; - aircraft mission and requirements formulating; - conception and practicality analysis – including possibility of fulfilling requirements and preliminary cost analysis; - preliminary design, finished with initial studies and cost analysis; - aircraft documentation, prototypes and certification; - manufacturing and sales Business Plan. The Platform will provide an essential contribution to processes management, knowledge management and particularly: . Integrate people, information, processes, and business units to create an environment in which companies can develop, produce and support a product more efficiently. . Develop the appropriate tools and environment to allow dissemination of knowledge and resources among the European enterprises and research centres. . Implement Grid technology to enable the use of de-located resources (including computational resources for CFD and stress analysis). A Grid Access Point at any given location will allow integration of most collaboration tools and databases, allowing the distributed development of small aircraft throughout Europe. . Equally important will be the creation of a common European knowledge database tailored for the small commercial aircraft industry that can be easily updated by any given company and research centre. . Knowledge management applied to update design rules with support and repair information. This task will consist of implementing the process of smart exploitation of information caught from repair and maintenance areas.

Full participation by interested bodies, in particular General Aviation Manufacturers, Users and entities (Eurocontrol, EASA …), whose ongoing work on relevant research and development initiatives and the formulation of standards would need to be geared towards the EPATS delivery.

Because it is essential that the EPATS Program have strong leadership with the credibility to bring together and mobilize stakeholders, the Participants consider that the governance arrangements of the development and implementation phase should fulfil the recommendation of the abovementioned document, and particularly consisting of:

- A Supervisory Authority to carry out the oversight responsibilities and to oversee the development and implementation of the EPATS. - A European Technology Platform, which will use the new instrument, Joint Technology Initiative, charged with the management of the program at the European level. The JTI should be constituted with an Administrative Board, comprising stakeholder representatives, and an Executive Director with delegated. - Authority to undertake the various day-to-day management activities. - Full participation by interested bodies, in particular General Aviation Manufacturers, Users and entities (Eurocontrol, EASA …), whose ongoing work on

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relevant research and development initiatives and the formulation of standards would need to be geared towards the EPATS delivery. - Program managers appointed by individual stakeholders to implement specific initiatives within the framework provided by the broader program. A “three-stage” EPADP process: is foreseen: Stage 1: Stakeholders getting together in order to establish their “vision” for the future EPATS development and to set up the technology platform; Stage 2: Stakeholders define a Strategic Research Agenda setting out their common views on the necessary medium to long term research, development and demonstration needs for this technology; Stage 3: Implementation of the Strategic Research Agenda - for which, in many instances, it is anticipated that significant public and private investments will need to be mobilized.

14.7 The Road-map key questions

The Road-map has to answer the following questions:

 What extent of work should be done in different and appropriate research & development areas to enable the feasibility of the EPATS requirements, and to prepare its implementation?  What recommendations should be done in order to introduce the challenge of Air Transport System Accessibility within ACARE Strategic Research Agenda and consequently the EPATS Research Program within the 7th – 8th Framework Program?  What will be the role and models of partnership involving the EC, members states, regional communities and other programs linked with the EPATS?  What will be the role of regulatory advancements in stimulating the emergence of the EPATS?  What are the ways of the EPATS developing, implementing and investment planning for the next technologies areas: - the EPATS aircraft technologies; - Small engines technologies; - Light and small size equipment and avionics technologies; - the EPATS airports technologies; - the EPATS ATM-ATC technologies; - New System Training technologies; - Socio-economic and mobility survey.  What should be the organizational structure of the EPATS implementation and activities?  How to measure the progress towards the goal? (For small aircraft R&D activities we will assume that only a flight demonstration is capable of providing tangible and real evidence of progress).  What funding strategies for the deployment of the EPATS capabilities should be proposed?  How to create appropriate regulations and organize Air Service to European Small Communities?

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14.8 The output of EPATS implementation

The output of implementation will be:  Low cost personal aircraft travel (through: industry cooperation at a Community level, new technology, economies of scale in development, production and services).  High density of airports network with near all-weather capabilities (number of upgraded airfields) that will reduce the average distance to airport from hundreds to tens of kilometres.  The ATM system that enables both regular passenger and intensive personal air traffic.  Revitalized European General Aviation industry and development of suppliers of major systems like engines, landing gears, navigation sets and subsystems and parts.  The EPATS social objectives achievement (Public Good metric(s) that each technology addresses): - Mobility/Accessibility/ Affordability for all EU Regions; - Capacity (Utility and efficiency of the EU Airspace System including GA airports); - Environment (Noise and emissions); - Safety (Real and perceived); - Land Use; - Energy Use.

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15. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS

15.1 Conclusions related to European Business & Personal Aviation Data Base (WP1)

1. The analysis performed in WP1do not support the position, that the existing between the EU and the US gap in General Aviation development is caused by differences in area, wealth nor surface transport infrastructure. The position was true when Europe was partitioned and there was not any sign of common market and European sky. The Fleet and volume of passenger-kilometre done by General Aviation of the USA is nearly 5 times greater than the one of Europe, when the global national income of the EU prevails over the GDP of the USA, the distances separating outlaying regions are similar, and the land transport infrastructure comparable.

2. The reasons behind the US General Aviation uncompetitive position should be found in conditions created in the US by the administrations and involvement of society and local public government for the benefit of local and personal air transport.

3. One of the major obstacles in conducting effective study on general aviation is the lack of adequate statistical information. Deep knowledge about current state is the fundament of development planning. The knowledge is gained from statistical surveys, highly valued by the FAA. It is confirmed by many research programs and especially continuously undertaken: „General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity and Avionics (GAATAA) Surveys”, which were used for the comparison tables. The information collected in this survey helps to understand more about general aviation activities, assess the impact of general aviation activities on the National Airspace System, and determine the need for increased traffic facilities and services. Federal, state and local governments; general aviation associations; and private industry and individuals use the summary data for safety analyses, planning, forecasting, and research and development. For example, more accurate information on hours flown and aircraft activity lead to more accurate safety measures, which in turn impacts general aviation insurance rates.

4. As regards to safety, the partial data available gives only some indication as to the main causes of fatal accidents. There are no European wide comprehensive statistics on safety of General Aviation Aircraft.

5. In the same condition of Air Traffic Management and Control the number of General Aviation operations at GA airports is much bigger in USA than in EU, compare 768 itinerant operations per day for the first ranked airport in USA with 131 business operations per day for the first ranked airport in Europe (comparing the total operations – itinerant and locale- the difference will be else bigger). That means, that at the current level of ATM- ATC there is a large reserve of GA airports capacity in Europe.

6. Our knowledge of current state in Europe as it is clearly visible at the comparison tables is poor. Up to date comprehensive data describing the General Aviation sector in Europe is not available. Most of the existing data concern almost exclusively commercial air transport sector and usually refer to airlines and airports. Even if some statistics for GA on the Country level are available from different sources, it is hard to

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compare them because they are prepared on different criteria basis and using different terms definitions. For example, because of the lack of common definition, Eurocontrol define business aviation via a list of aircraft types. SESAR (Deliverable D1) define General Aviation as all aircraft except those of airlines, business aviation and state- owned aircraft, when Eurostat “Draft Glossary version 6 on air transport statistics” in GA operations - commercial includes Air Taxi and others renumbered operations, and in GA operations – non-commercial includes State Flight, Business flying and other.

7. Creation of a comprehensive European Business & Personal Aviation Data Base is indispensable for research & development planning. As in USA appropriate statistical surveys on EU level should be done.

8. There are no European wide comprehensive statistics on safety of General Aviation Aircraft without which research efforts is problematical and safety improvement is hard to measure.

9. Air transport fatality statistics refer mainly to scheduled flights, because air travel fatalities on unscheduled (charter) and General Aviation flights are only surveyed and reported by FAA and partially reported by international air transport organisations.

10. On the basis of US American General Aviation Safety data operating both under Parts 91 and 135 of the American Code and analysis of above mentioned sources we can say, that Personal Aircraft Transportation System have an accident rate factor lower than Road Transportation Mode and have the potential to be near the Part 121 air carriers safety level. Apart improving design safety this potential involve mainly new technology aiming to facilitate flying and new training systems.

11. There is no systematically collection of information about General Aviation in EU and the existing sources are not sure. The lack of data make analysis and valuation not enough reliable. There is a need of systematically GA information gathering and creating a complex and reliable database affordable for all the European aviation community.

Proposals

Needs of furthers works to be made in the domain of statistical data collection:

1. Initiating activities leading to European Center for Civil Aviation Statistical Analysis funding, especially for General Aviation. The center would be responsible for gathering and data processing concerning state and activities and, also, forecasting studies of the mentioned transport sector (aircraft, airports, ATM infrastructure, air traffic and its structure). The center could be located in EASA or EUROCONTROL.

2. Initiating stocktaking of all airport and landing facilities in the EU Member States and Strategic Plan of European Airport Modernization including, equally, all the existing, as well as the appearing airports and airfields. A similar to the US “National Plan of integrated Airports Systems” (NPIAS) and “Airport Improvement Program” (AIP) European plan and program should be prepared and implemented. The program should be implemented by different entities, consulted with the adequate institutions and coordinated by EC DG Energy and Transport.

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3. As in US, an European Transportation Safety Board (ETSB) responsible for maintaining European database on civil aviation accidents, including General Aviation should be appointed. The Safety Board’s Accident/Incident database should be the official repository of aviation accident data and causal factors. (The existing European Transport Safety Council does not involve surveys and is not a repository of civil aviation accident data).

15.2 Conclusions related to Market potential of personal aviation (WP2)

Air transport efficiency and its measures

Main natural determinants of personal transportation system efficiency are: - Travelling time as an effect of a mode speed, infrastructure, traffic management system and accessibility. - Energy used (fuel) on the realization of one passenger kilometre at given speed. - Resources used for the mode of transport and infrastructure production on one passenger kilometre. - Impacts on ecology. The global determinant including all factors expressed in monetary form is the generalized cost of transport of one passenger-kilometre. These quantities is used to evaluate the effectiveness of EPATS and to compare it to others transportation modes. Proposal General Definition of Air Transport Efficiency – suggestion: At the system level Air Transport Efficiency is defined as energy consumption or costs needed to shift one passenger (or kg) on representative (average) origin to destination Great Circle Distance in time according to a fixed plan and complying specifications requirements, including safety and environmental costs. The main Vision 2020 Goal for EPATS is to reduce energy consumption and costs to the Car.

Mobility in European countries

Data is lacking to perform a detailed deep mobility analysis on the connections where the personal aviation would be pertinent, i.e. on connections associating bad accessibility levels, economic attractiveness and significant traffic flows. Despite the lack of detailed data on the traffic occurring on these connections the analysis manage to provide very interesting and important information on the current traffic levels and modal splits. The total traffic on the potential EPATS connections is 2400 billion passengers amongst whom 436 million travel to and from France and 93 million to and from Poland. The analysis also highlights the large market share of the road transport mode on these connections since 79% of the passengers travel by car. The air transport market share often exceeds the road one for distance over 1500 Km and reaches 100% for distances over 2000 Km. The road transport mode preponderance on the potential EPATS connections hence tend to mean that the traditional air transportation is often less competitive than the road transport

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Proposals A coherent and sustainable European Union transport system development and implementation in European regions, which is one of the main aim of EPATS project, requires undertaking common initiatives at the levels of the European Union, Member States and regional powers in order to create a common platform to plan, coordinate and monitor research concerning a European transport system, mobility, accessibility to public goods and future needs of personal transport forecasting.

In the light of the preceding, we recommend the following:

1. Creating a European Centre for Personal Interregional Transport as a common research platform of the EU Members and taking responsibility for preparation of fundamentals for political decisions taking regarding interregional personal transport development. 2. Planning and initiating research on EPATS interactive transport system aligned to research on 4-dimensional flight planning system. EPATS Interactive Transportation Management Centre (ITMC) initiative should be correlated to System Wide Information Management – Inter-Operability Centre (SWIM-IOP). 3. Planning and initiating a European interregional passenger transport modelling and forecasting using authoritative mobility database especially taking under consideration EPATS transport subsystem. 4. Including adequate research to the prepared ESPON 2013 programme in order to verify potential EPATS connections and forecasted volume of transport transferred from personal car transport. 5. Initiating close cooperation among European programmes responsible for personal air and surface transport in interconnected topics and including common goals. This is especially true for ESPON 2013, SESAR and EPATS programmes. It is coherent with SESAR and ESPON 2013 performers’ intentions, which the application for further research writes the following sentences: “A user-oriented approach shall be adopted for the ESPON 2013 Programme. The ESPON 2013 Programme shall, through committed involvement and awareness rising, offer targeted analytical deliveries upon demand, responding to needs.”

Potential transfer of passenger demand to personal aviation

Other aspects to improve concern the estimation methodology based on the generalised cost method. Such improvement would indeed mainly concern the need of refining the generalised cost formula by including qualitative factors. Indeed, if available, qualitative data such as comfort, frequency, punctuality, etc... will be included in the generalized cost formula so as to better characterize travellers behaviours.

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An additional methodology improvement would also concern the way to identify the type of EPATS aircraft needed for each flight. In this study, we only managed to associate one category of EPATS aircraft by trip distance without being able to take other criteria into account. An essential next step should therefore be to perform a thorough analysis on the optimal aircraft type according to the traffic volume and characteristics to refine the fleet estimation per aircraft type. The calculation outcomes revealed that larger (P-5, T-19 and J-9) aircraft types (out of the 6 models) are more cost-efficient. The analyzed 6 aircraft included 2 sizes of piston (3 and 5 passenger seats), 2 of turboprop (9 and 19 seats) and 2 of jets (5 and 9 seats). These results were caused by the assumption that load factor is constant. Reality, however, is different and we cannot maintain constant and identical average load factor independently of the flow density level and its fluctuation on different Origin-Destination routes. Load factor is determined by periodical (monthly) and random (daily) fluctuations of traffic volume on interregional connections. Most of the EPATS potential interregional flow does not exceed 1000-2000 passengers yearly. Assuming 3-6 passengers daily to determine optimal fleet structure, ignoring periodical and random character of flows may generate unreliable outcomes.

Proposals As of yet, European researches on long distance travel were limited to yearly aggregated numbers. Only air traffic provides data on periodical changes of passenger flow, but it consider only main communication channels. Increasing accuracy of EPATS aircraft demand requires more in-depth European interregional passenger traffic surveys and investigations. Apart from other factors of transport mode choice, which also have to be considered (comfort, preferences, accessibility, etc.), these investigations has to answer the following multilevel questions: - How many passengers (Nij) travels from region (i) to region (j)? - What mode do they use (m)? - What purpose (p)? - What value of time (income) (v) category do they belong to? - What are the monthly (periodical) and daily (random) fluctuations of Nij,m,p,v ? The answers to these questions allow for better prediction of EPATS system demand, not only at the global level, but also regional. These answers are also important for development of other modes of transport, exceeding the scope of EPATS project. The adequate surveys and investigations should be initiated. The applied method of optimal mode choice and potential demand of transportation mode – based on minimization of generalized costs, seems to be the most rational. Some methods and data for component cost calculations require improving, especially: - operational costs, - value of time, - accommodation costs, - other variables (comfort, stress …) expressed in monetary form.

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At global level, externalities (environmental, noise, accidents, congestion, traffic control, etc.) which play a significant role in transport policy and which are not analyzed nor have balanced impact, should be included in the considerations and taxation policy. Amount of data and numerical operations on models used for choice of optimal mode of transport and fleet optimization exceeds capacity of calculation tools used up to now, i.e. Excel and Mathcad. There exists a need for specialized calculation software allowing for virtual application of the assumed transport model and determining by it the best EPATS aircraft fleet structure for respective regions of Europe. To refine the generalized cost formula when including qualitative factors so as to better characterize travellers behaviours. To perform a deep analysis on the most accurate aircraft type according to the traffic volume and characteristics to refine the fleet estimation per aircraft type. To make estimations of the potential EPATS traffic from each European country to obtain the total traffic at the whole European level.

15.3 Conclusions related to ATM (WP3.1)

According to the WP2, EPATS would represent from 42 924 291 to 44 179 030 movements a year by 2020, and call for 99 000 and 89 000 aircraft, respectively for the Case A and Case B estimations. Using the EUROCONTROL and the European Commission findings, this investigation distinguished EPATS IFR and EPATS VFR flights. The EPATS IFR flights are found to grow from less than 1 million (as in 2007) to 2 944 105 or 2 860 539, respectively for the Case A and Case B projections. Knowing the targets of SESAR, it is clear that these personal IFR flights fit in the envisioned ATM capacity. Results also indicate that the maximum EPATS IFR traffic that could be handled by SESAR in 2020 is 12.59 and 12.56 million flights respectively for the Case A and Case B estimations. This is about 3.5 more than the predicted personal IFR traffic. The found capacity gap appeared in the results of the COSAAC simulation, which showed that the impact of the EPATS IFR flights on the traditional movements is limited, and therefore the personal IFR movements are not leading to congestions at the airports or waypoints. On the other hand, EPATS IFR might generate further traffic complexities, if the aircraft performances/characteristics are different from the traditional flights, and therefore horizontal/veridical interactions or even wake vortex problems are faced. On the other hand, the EPATS VFR segment is expected to grow from about 15 million flights a year (as in 2007) to 41.2 million for the Case A and 40 million with respect to the B prediction. The impact of the personal VFR flights on the ATM is an unknown problem, since these movements are not clearly addressed in the targets of the coming ATM. Nevertheless, this investigation showed that personal VFR movements flying at low altitude will meet the arrival / departure flows of the traditional traffic at the airport vicinities. Therefore, EPATS VFR will affect these regions, and call for advanced methods to cope with the two classes of traffic together (EPATS and traditional). If not feasible, the deviation or the separation of the flights will be needed. With respect to the total EPATS traffic, this investigation showed the evidence for the fact that the geographical distribution of the envisioned EPATS flights is different from those of the rest of the airspace users. More particularly, the results indicate that generally personal movements keep off the most crowded regions of the traditional flights. However, EPATS will influence the rest of the airspace users in Italy; Greece; Portugal; Spain; the Southern regions of France,

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England; the South-Eastern areas of Poland and the North-Western locations of Germany. With respect to the impact of EPATS on the most preferred airports of the traditional flights, Athens, Rome, Madrid Barcelona, Warsaw and London are found to be the most influenced, while the most congested locations such as Frankfurt, Amsterdam or Paris are indicated to be less concerned. The cruising altitude distribution showed that 60 % of the personal movements take place in the airspace below FL 100, in which only 2 % of the traditional flights are present. Major findings of the analysis suggested that future decisions concerning the airspace organization should take into consideration that (in 2020) about 40 million personal flights would rely on the see-and-avoid concept, from which a significant percentage would take place below FL 100. Beside, a particular focus on the terminal area management is also proposed to cope with the EPATS and the traditional flights at the airport vicinities. Finally, it is also suggested to address the business model of EPATS in order to clarify whether the flights will take place scheduled or on request, and how these will fit in the SESAR business trajectory process.

ATM impact:  System capacity (sever challenge for SESAR to handle 14 Millions EPATS IFR flights with high number of EPATS VFR flights).  Traffic complexity (high distribution – new dense area leading to design new SESAR managed airspaces).  Airspace design both for IFR and VFR EPATS flights (might be constrained by the SESAR airspace design as most of EPATS flight will be in un-managed airspace – dynamic and morphing airspace).  Terminal area Safety (mixing traditional traffic with EPATS traffic with different aircraft performances (speed – wake vortex) – dense area thus SESAR managed airspace – IFR only? VFR?).  Safety (Self separation management & self conflict avoidance - less skilled EPATS pilots? – on-board equipment mandatory for flying SESAR – single pilot).

Proposals

EPATS R&D needs:

 SESAR Airspace design for IFR and VFR vs managed and un-managed airspace (vertical (FL) and geographical design – dynamic and morphing).  SESAR Business Trajectory management for EPATS flight (IFR and VFR?) and EPATS FL allocation (including flight planning and trajectory negotiation and SWIM issues).  SESAR and VFR flights Single piloting in un-managed and managed airspace (Safety - separation management and conflict avoidance - autonomous EPATS flight – Air Traffic Controller impact).  EPATS cockpit equipment for supporting SESAR standard requirements  TMA operation mixing EPATS and traditional flights (AMAN, DMAN, SIDs, STARs, CDA concept, Aircraft performances).  En-Route operation mixing EPATS and traditional flights (Aircraft performances, managed airspace, Routing, separation management.  EPATS scenarios for EPATS traffic assessment: Safety, flight efficiency, cost, effective capacity, complexity, delay.

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E PATS to fit in the SESAR Business Trajectory process: strategic planning and negotiation

Fig. 15-1 Business Trajectory lifecycle

15.4 Conclusions related to airport (WP3.2)

1. With the present airport distribution over Europe, there will be sufficient infrastructure to accommodate the expected EPATS evolution. Some airports are not close to economic centres, making others close by economic activities more attractive. Some may need new, more or extended runways, but it seems reasonable that this aspect of the European infrastructure can be developed in time and in phase with the EPATS evolution. 2. The same applies to the airport facilities. Local economy should drive and have benefit from the evolution. As we still have 10 to 12 years to go, investors and governments can wait and see a couple of years, also because there is plenty of capacity already available and waiting for EPATS. 3. The arrival of the EPATS will have a big influence on the existing airports, especially the small and regional airports. Because the EPATS aircraft is a small airplane it has fewer requirements for an airport. Therefore the airports can first watch the development of the EPATS before they make large investments. When the time is come the airports can make investments like ILS, de-icing, calamity prevention and accommodation to be a fully functional EPATS airport. With these systems the safety will be maintained and the efficiency will be optimal. VFR airports can expand to an IFR airport so flights can take place during the night or with bad visibility. For the airports that are not controlled it is an option to introduce remote control and surveillance. The crew of a different airport could control the necessary issues, like stop bars, with help of cameras and radio contact. When de-icing is not available a solution is to heat the hangars so no expansive de-ice equipment has to be bought. With this kind of solutions small airports can operate with the EPATS in a basic way. 4. We envision a home base of a dozen to hundreds of aircraft step by step in each NUTS 2 (260) and NUTS 3 (1100) regions. Proposals

The EPATS study recommends and concludes on the following airport infrastructure topics: Airports:

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 It seems that Europe has enough small airports to accommodate 100.000 plus small aircraft.  Some economic growth centres will be places to create or modernise small airports, especially in areas where other more traditional means of transport are absent. The local economy will be the driving factor because it will have direct benefit.  Each region NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 airport will have good chances become the home base of EPATS operators. These airports need more facilities and probably Air Traffic Control to service safe flight operations during peak hours. Examples in the US demonstrate that air taxi operators could service their own airport with tower control.  EPATS aircraft may fly under rules that are neither IFR nor VFR. Their avionics may allow self separation as if EPATS are flying VFR. Research is recommended to what traffic quantities Self separating EPATS flights can be maintained on non-towered airports. Runways and Approach / Departure:  One runway per airport could accommodate up to 400 movements a day, which is the average rate estimated for 100.000 small aircraft, 1000 European airfields of interest and equal numbers of home based aircraft and visiting aircraft. Noise and environment may restrict the airport to lower numbers, but from air traffic and safety reasons 400 movements per runway are certainly possible.  Punctuality of air transport services will benefit from Autoland facilities, satellite based local area augmentation systems and extra beacons although the EPATS aircraft will probably operate rather independently from VOR, NDB and DME. Satellite based Autoland systems still need certification. Autoland systems should be available on pilot demand either by calling the local airport operator or by remote ATC operations. Autoland will need additional certification if the airfield is not controlled and if a fire brigade is not available on the spot. In conclusion research is recommended on cheap and safe Autoland facilities for EPATS aircraft.  EPATS operations during night and low visibility need approach lighting and runway lighting, preferably systems that can be ignited on pilot demand either by local airport operators or remotely. Research is recommended on remote control of airports, including approach and runway lighting.  Quiet airports are also places where wildlife likes to live. Safe EPATS operations require protection against wildlife and birds. It is inevitable to take care of this aspect. Local airport operators could be trained to inspect the runway short before landing. Research is recommended on animal friendly protection of runways and taxiway against bird and wildlife. Taxiways and parking:  The existing 2000 small European airports possess probably sufficient taxiways with sufficient quality.  Extra parking and hangars may be needed to host the extra 100 of EPATS aircraft on average per airport. Airfields with one runway and subsequent taxiway and aprons will occupy a rectangle of land with about 1 km length and about 500 m width. This should be enough space to create extra parking stands for engined taxi in and taxi out parking of about 100 extra small aircraft.  Taxiway guidance (markings, painting, lighting) should serve the EPATS pilots according to ICAO standards and up to a level that taxi operations can happen uncontrolled and punctually. Research on certification of moving map cockpit displays is recommended.

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Air Traffic Control and flight preparations  Airports with low traffic will not need control. In comparison much of the VFR general aviation happens on uncontrolled airfields and procedures guarantee safe operations there.  It will save the cost of personnel if airports are controlled remotely. Applied research and development is needed for optimal ways of remote airport control.  The availability of meteo data for flight preparation is of utmost importance. Present day European meteo data systems are already available but may need further development and certification to allow use for flight preparation. Airport facilities:  The runway(s), taxiways and aprons should be free of snow and ice for safe operations. Local airport operators (services) should take care of this aspect of airport accessibility and reliability. Research is recommended to predict local ice forming and snow several hours before landing. Research and development is needed how to protect runways and taxiways longer against snow and ice than present day methods.  The EPATS aircraft should be free of snow and ice before take off. Methods could be developed for simple removal of snow and ice on small aircraft. Off course indoor parking in heated hangars will solve the problem.  Provision of electrical power would be needed, but if not available, EPATS aircraft could use there own battery power for starting up the engines.  Various types of fuel should be available on small airports to prevent extra refuel stop overs. It might be futuristic but technology for in flight refuelling exists!  Small repair and maintenance would benefit flight operational reliability. Passenger facilities:  Connectivity (car, public transport) is needed to fulfil the EPATS goal of spending as little time as possible in the transport system.  The need for restaurants, waiting room, parking and shops will grow with the traffic.  Simple but secure check in and customs procedures are needed; biometrics is a candidate.  Better statistical data is needed to track the EPATS evolution and consequences for airports. Statistics:  Statistics on EPATS aircraft, number of flights, number of passengers and connections, number of pilots, hours of operation etc. is needed to predict the future of EPATS better.

15.5 Conclusions related to environment and safety (WP3.2.6)

See Report: D3.2 EPATS Airports General Requirements including Safety and Environmental Issues.

15.6 Conclusions related to Operating Cost Analysis (WP4.2)  The assumed method of Direct Operating Cost (DOC) calculations is flexible and potential full. It let change all parameters: technical and economic, as well as flight parameters such as speed and altitude. The method allows examining dependence of DOC on particular parameters.

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 The specific operating cost [€/seat.km] of a small piston aircraft is similar to the personal car (0,50 €/seat.km), however in reality the aircraft OC in €/pax.km should be lower because of higher load factor. (0,30 for car and 0,70 to 0,90 for aircraft).  The specific operating cost [€/seat.km] of a small piston aircraft on a range of 300 km is near the Regional Aircraft. However the cruising speed is lower the block speed will be similar and the travel speed could be higher.  The higher is the seats number the lower is the specific cost if the load factor is the same. The calculated difference between EPATS and Regional aircraft is mainly due to the assumed flight hours by year (500 h for EPATS and 1500 for regional). The Implementation of Interactive PATS will improve both load factor and yearly flight hours so the cost per pax.km could be similar.  The specific operating cost of jet aircraft is more twelve the piston. It is due to the higher speed and higher Specific Fuel Consumption.

Proposals  Because of high variety of input data, caused by multiplicity of resources and lack of many components of costs, lack of complex research and cost analysis of air personal transport, presented analysis results are, to some degree, uncertain. Thus the need for further research.  Taking into account the significance of reliable cost analysis for effectiveness estimation of undertaken research and planning of transport systems, it is required to develop standard methods of operational costs anticipation and joint European suitable database of air transport, updated continuously through systematically researches and analysis. Such activities should be under the auspices and supervision of European Commission Directorate General for Energy and Transport.

Good example of similar activities result, undertaken under auspices of FAA, is document entitled “Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decision a Guide”.

15.7 Conclusions related to Aircraft cockpit systems

The two main driving factors behind the avionics requirements for EPATS are found to be: - SESAR ATM compatibility, - Mission capabilities (single pilot, uncontrolled airport operations, all weather).  Eurocontrol recently defined SESAR requirements. These requirements are mandatory for EPATS because compliance is necessary in order to be able to fly. The mission capabilities as specified by the EPATS project should be considered as aiming goals and resulting requirements on avionics used to evaluate feasibility of the prospective mission.  For EPATS, the avionics for SESAR compliance are generally known although not all technologies to be used have been specified yet. The additional avionics for SESAR does have a significant impact on EPATS. EPATS communications will require a new air to ground data link to support the network connections as well as retaining the legacy VHF radios. This particular new data link is not fully known yet so exact implications for EPATS are a concern and should be looked at once more information is available.  Navigational aspects look good for EPATS; reference aircraft are already capable to a high Navigation precision standard. With the European Galileo satellite constellation in

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place and with augmentation, EPATS aircraft will be capable of navigating to an even higher level of precision and able to conduct approaches to remote airfields. For the higher end segment, the 4D FMS computer’s specifications required is not yet known so will warrant more scrutiny.  For surveillance, the shift to usage of ADS-B technology should lead to flights with more situational awareness of traffic. ADS-B general aviation technology using 1090 extended squitter is not fielded yet so it has to be waited until manufacturers have made further progress in finalizing the actual equipment. Weather and terrain information will be highly feasible with little effort compared to current technology.  Optional in flight entertainment is feasible but will depend on the commercially offered technology and services by then. Optional vision aids to help the pilot with operations under low visibility conditions will hopefully be more mature and made affordable in the future.  All in all, technology that is either available currently or will come in the future certainly can support the EPATS concept. But key issues remain that needs to be taken care of first. These key issues primarily fall outside of the physical aircraft: it is the regulations and economics that hamper. The major problem lies in the concept of single pilot commercial operations which must now be performed by two flight crew prescribed by European regulations. Whether such flight operations will be allowed by regulatory changes in the future will determine whether EPATS as it is will be a reality or not. Operations at European uncontrolled airports under instrument meteorological conditions are also prohibited nowadays; this also needs to be allowed to enable EPATS reaching remote destinations. And the avionics cost estimate by SESAR is not acceptable for EPATS. The avionics cost can not be more expensive than in US.

Proposals It is recommended to define European research projects to investigate and assess solutions for the mentioned key issues to support the EPATS concept. Furthermore, the lessons learned from the NASA SATS project should be scrutinized so EPATS will not have the potential for undesirable outcomes.

15.8 Conclusions related to aircraft design

 The results of EPATS (European Personal Air Transportation System) show, that there is a real opportunity to shift a substantial part of long distance passengers trips by personal car to personal airplane and that the potential demand for Personal aircraft in 2020th could reach 100000 units.  The current situation of the European General Aviation manufacturing industry is indicating that the industry is unable to compete with the subsidized US aircraft industry without public support.  Support of new personal aircrafts and transport systems progress in European Union requires different approach to planning and funding of Research & Development projects. Planning and realization of research programs without regard to the final purpose, which is an aircraft, its infrastructure and operational system fails to bring off expected results. Many of valuable scientific research remain in vain on shelf because they were not scheduled to be used or there were not enough funds for implementation.  The fundamental condition recovering Europe origin small aircraft competitiveness is providing them with conditions as in the US.

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Proposals  It is necessary to initiate governmental and EU activities leading to revitalization of the European General Aviation, similar as in the USA (AGATE, GAP, SATS, and NASA Call for Design Competition). Taking advantage of the existing EU tools, complex development of small aircraft should be included into strategic EU programs.  An EU Call for Personal Aircraft Design Competition is recommended. The competition sponsored by EU and Aviation Industry will challenge aeronautical society to develop innovative concepts and systems for future aircraft. It would also enable the European Manufacturers to engage stronger in the development of small, modern aircraft. Furthermore it would incite Operators and regional authorities for public transport services expansion.  Such an aircraft project should optimally fulfil EPATS requirements and be competitive with the US products. The mentioned aircraft projects would include all phase of preliminary design including aerodynamic tests and mock-up building. This approach could allow for better utilization of research output done in the EU framework programs, which, weren’t applied in many cases. It would also enable the Manufacturers to engage stronger in the development of small, modern aircraft and could allow the Operators for public transport services expansion.

15.9 Conclusions related to Business aspect.  EPATS implementation needs investigations and investments in : - Modernization of local and regional airport. - Development of ATM-ATC System. - Development of Interactive Transport Service Network. - Organization of regional EPATS Carriers. - Development of EPATS aircraft technologies and production. - Development of Pilot Training Base. - Unification and adaptation of legal issues and the certification according to the new requirements of EPATS.  The expected benefits are: - Creating highly qualified employment opportunities. - Saving passengers’ time. - Saved fuel. - Saved structural material on replacing cars with airplanes. - Saved ground area for parking and roads. - Decrease in accidents and pollution.  Comparing social benefits resulting from EPATS implementation with funds required for its realization, the analysis findings shows, that benefits outbalance required contribution.

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16. FINAL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The development of EPATS and revitalization of European General Aviation, which is a requisite of competitiveness, and leadership for European aeronautics, is not possible without EC cooperation and support, and a series of public and private partnerships. Proposals  To initiate a meeting of stakeholders in order to discuss vision of EPATS and particularly the above mentioned activities proposals. Stakeholder on political, regulatory, institutional, users and industry level (DG EC Transport, Research, Regions, EASA, EUROCONTROL, ECAC, ERA, EBAA, IAOPA, EGAMA...).  The EPATS Consortium supports an Integration Platform initiative for discussion, agreements and reference point for the issues concerning requirements and research programs in the area of EPATS. The Consortium proposes to organize a European Experts Workshop to discuss this initiative and initial proposals for EPATS aircraft requirements and research projects, analyzed in the framework of EPATS.  The platform should gather institutions and organizations interested in interactive transportation network and small aircraft development, analyzing interregional passenger transport and spatial organization and management, including organizations researching on socioeconomic and mobility of people, e.g. realizing ESPON, DATELINE or other programs.  To investigate transportation users and providers behaviors and their environment and to project the organization of EPATS Interactive Transportation Management Center TMC in cooperation with the System Wide Information Management - SWIM project planned in SESAR program.  It is recommended to increase the EU framework funding in the area of small aircraft transportation system. Apart from funded research in the framework of EU Program, in the area of the poorly developed General Aviation it is rational to call to aircraft project competition.  It is recommended to establish a new European Technology Platform “European Interactive Personal Air Transportation System”, which would fulfil Joint Technology Initiative formulated by EC or expanding JTI “Clean Sky” by adding seventh Area “EPATS Technology Demonstrator.

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30. General Aviation Statistical Databooks 2005 http://www.gama.aero/dloads/2005GAMAStatisticalDatabook.pdf 31. Flight Pocket Guide to Business Aviation –2007. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2006/10/06/209721/flight-pocket-guide-to- business-aviation-2007.html 32. William R. Voss „Analytical Identification of Airport and Airspace Capacity Constraints” 33. National Plan of Integrated Airports Systems NPIAS http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraffic/airports/planning_capacity/npias/reports/ 34. European AIS Database (AIS – Aeronautical Information Services). http://www.ead.eurocontrol.int/eadcms/eadsite/index.php.html 35. Reforma regulacyjna lotnisk w Polsce http://www.lotniskowswidniku.pl 36. Les aeroports regionaux secondaires franscais. http://perso.orange.fr/samuel.delabrosse/carto%20ars.pdf 37. Strategic Research Agenda, Volume 2, ACARE 38. Rauf Gonenc and Giuseppe Nicoletti “Regulatiom, Market Structure and Performance in Air Passenger Transportation” OECD Economic Studies Nr 32 39. Troy D Downen, “A Multi-Attribute Value Assessment Method for The Early Producct Developlment Phase. With Application to the Business Airplane Industry” 40. Sighard F Hoerner “ Fluid-Dynamic Drag” 41. Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projection to 2030. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity.html 42. “The Social Costs of Intercity Passenger Transportation: A Review and Comparison of Air and Highway” by David M. Levinson 43. Efficient Vehicles Versus Efficient Transportation - Comparing Transportation Energy Conservation Strategies By Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute 6 May 2005 44. „Sector Operation Program. Transport for years 2004-2006”. Polish Infrastructure Ministry. http://www2.ukie.gov.pl/HLP/files.nsf/0/B075AC93393F6AEDC1256E81003EA3D3/$ file/spo_t_ang.pdf.pdf 45. Values assumed for the aeroplanes are based on the comparative analyses, taking mainly into account the difference in: fatalities rate and crash externalities, traffic congestion, street parking, local air pollution, roadway costs and traffic services. 46. International Air Charter Worldwide http://www.airchartertravel.com/ 47. EC. General Aviation in the European Community . Commission Staff Discussion Paper 48. Consultations on General Aviation in the European Community Brussels, 21.05.2000 49. Air Transport in Europe 2005 http://www.eds- destatis.de/en/downloads/sif/sf_07_008.pdf 50. FAA Safety Evaluation Report . December 2005 51. Transportation Safety. http://www.ntsb.gov/ 52. Eclipse Economical Comparison http://www.eclipseaviation.com/popup/economics.php 53. Dr. Jozsef Rohacs, “PATS Personal Air Transportation System” ICAS 2002 Congress 54. Prof. Dr. Jozsef Rohacs, “Evaluation of air transport efficiency definitions and their impact on the European Personal Air Transportation System development. EPATS Workshop, Eurocontrol May 2007. 55. L’avenir des dessertes aeriennes regionales, http://www.senat.fr/rap/r00-327/r00- 327.html 56. Working Group on "Passenger Mobility Statistics", 24 and 25 April 2003. EC

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57. Aircraft Operating Cost , Aviation Research Group, US http://www.aviationresearch.com/ 58. Aleksandra Mozdzanowska and R. John Hansman „Evaluation of Regional Jet Operating Patterns in the Continental United States 59. Antonio Trani, Jeff Viken, Sam Dollyhight, “Impact of Very Light Jet (VLS) Flights on Airport Terminal Area” http://www.nextor.org/NAS2006/Session%204b_Baik_Impact%20of%20VLJ%20Traff ic.pdf 60. Glenn D. Schilling „Modeling aircraft fuel consumption with a neural network” 61. Muharrem Mane * and William A. Crossley „Preliminary cost feasibility study of air taxi operations” 62. Kristin Rypdal, “Aircraft Emissions”. http://www.ipcc- nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/bgp/2_5_Aircraft.pdf 63. David M. Levinson,David Gillen, „The social costs of intercity passenger transportation: a review and comparison of air and highway” 64. Commission staff working document Report on European Technology Platforms and Joint Technology Initiatives: Fostering Public-Private R&D Partnerships to Boost Europe’s Industrial Competitiveness. Brussels, 10.6.2005 SEC(2005) 800 ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/technology-platforms/docs/tp_report_council.pdf ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/technology-platforms/docs/faq_301105.pdf 65. General Aviation In The European Community. Commission Staff Discussion Paper. European Commission

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Document Change Log:

Modifications Author Date of (sections affected Description of the release /Organisation Release and relevant Version information) 0 A. Baron/IoA June, 30, 08 D5.2 EPATS Roadmap First version K. Piwek/IoA

Document Distribution List:

Name of the Company’s Company’s Company’s Company short name Country Project Number Manager Marking 1 Instytut Lotnictwa IoA Poland Piwek X 2 EUROCONTROL EEC France Brochard X 3 M3 SYSTEMS M3S France Laplace X Stichting Nationaal Lucht-en The 4 NLR Schaik X Ruimtevaartlaboratorium Netherlands 5 Polskie Zakłady Lotnicze Sp z o.o. PZL M Poland Pietruszka X 6 Politechnika Rzeszowska RzUoT Poland Majka X 7 WSK "PZL-RZESZÓW" PZL Rz Poland Gnot X Budapest University of Technology 8 BUTE Hungary Rohacs X and Economics 9 Windrose Air Jetcharter GmbH WINDROSE Germany Walkowiak X AD The 10 AD CUENTA B.V. Graaff X CUENTA Netherlands Stoltz- 11 EUROPEAN COMMISSION EC RD Europe X Douchet

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