N°79 - June 19 2008 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS KREMLIN P. 1-4 Politics & Government c The “real-fake” liberal coup d’etat in Saint Petersburg KREMLIN The 12th Economic forum of Saint Petersburg which unfolded June 6 to 8, was conceived as a sort “oral c The « real-fake » liberal coup exam” for Dmitry Medvedev before the Russian and foreign business community, so that the new Presi- d’etat in Saint Petersburg dent could set the outlines of the work-plan he intends to present to investors, even if such operations c Dmitry Medvedev’s light should always be treated with some scepticism when speeches are first of all destined for major national music television channels and the correspondents from Reuters, Bloomberg or CNBC. To listen to Dmitry Med- PROFILE vedev, Igor Shuvalov, Alexey Kudrin or Sergey Naryshkin, who represented the wing that is said to be “li- c Igor Shuvalov, the spearhead beral” in the current Russian executive, Russia aspires to play a role as an international regulator, instead of the Russian liberals of and in place of the United States and the institutions that it more or less controls directly such as the INTERVIEW IMF, the World Bank or NATO. The chosen refrain : “structures parallel to the IMF must be created and c Isabelle FACON :“The top military hierarchy is called to the activities of the World Bank must be rethought, in fact all the international institutions are lagging be- order by the Kremlin” hind the problems to be resolved” (Kudrin); “the role of the United States in the international economic system has no relation to its actual power, therefore there exists an institutional vaccuum at the interna- tional level, Russia as a global economy has assets to draw up new rules of the game (Medvedev). If we add P. 5-7 Business & Networks the declarations by Shuvalov on the role of the state in the economy, the performance by Medvedev just a OMV, USA, ITALIA few hours earlier before Saint Petersburg before 1500 German business leaders in Hamburg and his recent c Gazprom : Alexey Miller’s vic- “outings” concerning democratisation of society and the economy (read page 2), one could have the im- tory parade pression that a sort of liberal “coup d’état” was underway in Russia, fomented from the very heart of the ENERGY Kremlin, to place the Putin years in the closet of Russian contemporary history. It is even fairly remarka- c The final jolts in the Russian ble that during the opening conference of the Saint Petersburg forum, which drew the “cream” of the Rus- electricity sector sian and international business world, the name of the Prime minister was never uttered ... ALERTS c Udokan Even if these speeches without a doubt express faithfully the convictions of Dmitry Medvedev and the c Aeroflot/Austrian “liberals”, they do not carry the obediance of the totality of the team in power, far from it. Vladimir Putin even permitted himself to lecture his 1st vice Prime minister Shuvalov before television cameras, to encou- FOCUS rage him to concentrate on milk prices rather than thoughtful speeches. Even almost as soon as were de- c TNK-BP : minor settling of livered the Saint Petersburg addresses, the headaches of TNK-BP resurfaced as strong as ever, the offense scores between friends of discriminatrion vis à vis the Russian staff added now to the list of grievances against the British mana- BEHIND THE SCENE gement of the company (read page 7). And the simultaneous presence at the Forum of Thierry Desmaret, cAlexey Kudrin and Sergey president ot Total, David O’Reilly, president of Chevron, Rex Tillerson, president of Exxon Mobil and Chemezov continue to cross James Mulva, president of Conoco-Phillips, at the side of Tony Hayward, director general of the BP group, swords over Rostekhnologii apparently did not impress Alexey Miller, director general and acting president of Gazprom, who, contrary P. 8 Regions & CIS to custom, left the stage immediately after his presentation, leaving the fine flower of world oil and natu- FEDERALISM ral gas on the platform... It is also interesting to note that Igor Sechin, whose presence in his capacity as c The Tatar president, vice Prime minister in charge of energy and industry, would have been logical, did not show up in the nor- Mintimer Shaymiev, throws thern capital. a stone in the pond ALERTS As might have been expected, the influence of Medvedev over the conduct of Russian affairs is expres- c Arkhangelsk sed more directly than certain observers expected. We are far from the caricature of the “little boy” stan- c Bashkortorstan ding timidly under the shadow of the “master”. We should therefore expect tensions with those who “hold” certain sectors such as Sechin or Chemezov who do not intend to yield a square centimetre of their terri- SUBSCRIPTION Print Edition tory even in the name of economic liberalisation or democratisation. We even here and there see signs of (23 issues, airmailed overseas) tension such as over the subject of East Line (read page 2) or the more than variable geometry of Rostekh- €770 TTC nologyi (read page 7). Likewise, the anti-corruption campaign, which figures as a priority chapter for Dmi- try Medvedev, will lead to more or less clear episodes that will be the occasion for new settling of scores The Web Pack between clans which, in fact, have spied and fought each other for several years. (Print Edition + PDF + archives acess) € 880 TTC This should not lead however to obscuring the real economic priority of the Kremlin and the “White House”, the headquarters for Vladimir Putin and his ministers, which is to integrate the large Rus- The Premium sian groups into the global economy. The will to make Moscow a major international financial centre and Subscription the ruble a future reserve currency, is now publicly advertised and a fairly large consensus among the Rus- (Print Edition + PDF + access to all the website contents) sian leaders exists on this objective since it involves consolidating, internationalising and “liquifying” the € 1200 TTC industrial and financial assets constituted since the middle of the 1990s.d www.russia-intelligence.fr RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government POWER c Dmitry Medvedev’s light music If it is undoubtedly exaggerated and premature to suggest a gator of the carve-up of the former major oil firm deprived of liberal counter-revolution in Russia, it nevertheless remains the profit of Rosneft. This tone is not a real surprise for our that Dmitry Medvedev is beginning to make heard, on a certain readers. In its edition of april 14, Russia Intelligence revealed number of issues of high political symbolism, a slightly different that Dmitry Medvedev had stated on several occasions privately music from the one heard during the two terms of Vladimir his support for some measure of conditional liberation for Mikhail Putin. No break, but an repertory that constitutes a first phase Khodorkovsky. So it will be very interesting to see if the enemies in the affirmation of power by the new President. of Dmitry Medvedev in the entourage of Vladimir Putin will nev- ertheless continue to push in the sense of a second Yukos trial. While the situation of the media in Russia constitutes one of the most controversial heritages from Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Another subject which Dmitry Medvedev has taken over and Medvedev sent a strong signal by withdrawing from the agenda he evidently will use to strengthen his authority and popularity of the State Duma a draft amendment aiming at hardening the in the midst of the population — the war against corruption, legislation on defamation. Proposed in late April by the Deputy that he will personally preside. According to various sources in Robert Schlegel, a former Nashi activist, the Poutinian youth, agreement, they indicate to Russia Intelligence that Dmitry this draft would make possible the closing of a press organ with- Medvedev will soon name to the presidential administration a out judicial decision but on the simple advice of the service in “Mr Anti-corruption” with enhanced authority, who will have all control of communications and mass media, authorised to de- the leeway to enter into the work of power structures, that cur- termine what is difamatory or not. On May 26, Dmitry Medvedev rently are part of the “divided domain” with Vladimir Putin. The had also received in the Kremlin, Vsevolod Bogdanov, the pres- post could be assigned to General Igor Tsokolov, 52, reputed to ident of the Russian order of journalists. be close to the ex-boss of the federal anti-narcotics service Vik- tor Cherkesov. Even more symbolically, Dmitry Medvedev lifted a taboo by raising during his joint press conference with Angela Merkel in Finally, Dmitry Medvedev has begun to enter into areas that Berlin on June 5, the possibility of a pardon for Mikhail Khodor- are the province of the head of state, such arms export. He kovsky. It is most unlikely that the former boss of Yukos will be adopted June 11 the composition of the Militaro-technical co- released in the coming weeks, but the simple fact of foreseeing operation commission. No surprises other than the appearance such a possibility, especially in public abroad, is a stone cast in of Alexandre Konovalov, the Justice minister, a member of the the garden of Vladimir Putin and Igor Sechin, the major insti- first circle of the presidential entourage.d And meanwhile, the “war of the clans” continues... If Dmitry Medvedev begins to stamp his had — cautiously — undertaken a defence to the Sechin-Patrushev team this winter mark, whether in the economic, domestic of East Line, believing that renationalisation even obtained the green light of the new political or diplomatic front, it will continue was still not the appropriate solution.