Saudi Arabia Enters the 21St Century Part
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CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 [email protected] Saudi Arabia Enters The 21st Century: VII. Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector Final Review Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy October 30, 2002 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century: Political, Economic, and Energy 11/6/02 Page ii The author would like to thank Kevin Wein, Uzma Jamil, Carolyn Mann, Daniel Berkowitz, Andrew Li, Jeffery Leary and Jennifer Moravitz for their assistance in researching and editing this study, and John Duke Anthony, David Long, Natif Obeid, and Saint John Armitage for their comments and insights. He would also like to thank the many Saudis who made comments and suggestions that cannot be formally attributed them, as well as the officials in the US, British, and French governments. Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century: Political, Economic, and Energy 11/6/02 Page iii Table of Contents VII. SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE SAUDI PETROLEUM SECTOR .........................................................1 THE CRITICAL GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI OIL RESERVES ................................................................................3 SAUDI OIL PRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................9 The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco..........................................................................9 Saudi Oil Production Today...............................................................................................................................11 Oil Production and Quotas ................................................................................................................................13 Expanding Saudi Oil Production .......................................................................................................................27 The Case For And Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production .........................................................29 EXPORT FACILITIES AND DISTRIBUTION ..................................................................................................................30 REFINING.................................................................................................................................................................32 Refining in Saudi Arabia....................................................................................................................................32 Refining Overseas ..............................................................................................................................................35 PETROCHEMICALS ...................................................................................................................................................36 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) ....................................................................................................37 Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment ....................................................................................38 NATURAL GAS.........................................................................................................................................................43 SAUDI GAS PRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................................44 Saudi Domestic Use of Gas................................................................................................................................47 Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector................................................................................................................48 SAUDI ENERGY STRATEGY IN THE 21ST CENTURY....................................................................................................59 The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan..................................................................................................59 The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister...........................................................................................................61 Longer-Term Saudi Strategy..............................................................................................................................62 Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections ..................64 Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach .........................................65 Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand ....................................................................................67 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century: Political, Economic, and Energy 11/6/02 Page iv CHANGES IN SAUDI ENERGY STRATEGY AND INVESTMENT POLICIES .....................................................................74 The Problem of Oil Prices..................................................................................................................................74 The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy......................................................................................................76 “Oil Crash” Becomes “Oil Boom,” and Oil Boom Turns to “Oil Crunch” .....................................................83 Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil .......................................................................................86 Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy............................................................................................................87 The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues. ..................90 The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy.............................................................................................90 LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY, AND DOING SO WITH AS LITTLE IDEOLOGY, AND AS MUCH PRAGMATISM, AS POSSIBLE .................................................................................................................................................................93 ENDNOTES ...............................................................................................................................................................95 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved VII. Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector Saudi Arabia’s need for economic reform and diversification does not mean that its petroleum sector will lose its importance to Saudi Arabia’s future. No matter how successful economic, demographic, and social reforms become, Saudi Arabia’s strategic position, economy, and ability to meet the expectations, of its people will still depend on the revenues provided by its petroleum sector. While Saudi energy exports cannot by themselves support the Saudi Arabia of the 21st century, they will remain the most important source of the Kingdom’s income. Saudi Arabia will stay a petroleum sector-driven economy even if it is successful in both diversification and expanding its private sector. In fact, much of its diversification, and much of the growth in its private sector, will consist of ventures that add value and labor intensity to the Saudi economy through the production of petroleum related products. 1 The petroleum sector normally accounts for around 40% of the Saudi GDP by Saudi estimates. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) estimates that the total value of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum refining was 51.7 billion in 1992, out of a GDP of 123.0 billion (42%). It was $48.2 billion out of $127.6 billion in 1995 (39.0%), $39.1 billion out of $128.76 billion in 1997 (30%), and $77.6 billion out of $173.1 billion in 2000 (44.8%).2 These percentages vary according to world demand for petroleum and the resulting Saudi earnings, but they do not reveal any trend towards reduced dependence. The Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy (DOE) makes similar estimates. It estimated in 2002 that the petroleum sector accounted for some 90-95% of total Saudi export earnings in 2002, 80% of state revenues, and 40% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP.3 As has been discussed in the previous chapter, these figures vary sharply according to world demand for petroleum. An estimate by the Saudi American Bank indicates that oil exports accounted for $28.2 billion of total government budget revenues of $39.1 billion in 1995 (72%), $36.3 billion of total government budget revenues of $ 47.8 billion in 1996 (76%), $42.7 billion of total government budget revenues of $54.8 billion in 1997 (78%), $21.3 billion of total government budget revenues of $38.1 billion in 1998 (56%), $27.6 billion of total government Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century –Politics, Economics, and Energy 11/6/2002 Page 2 budget revenues of $39.2 billion in 1999 (70%), $57.2 billion of total government budget revenues of $68.8 billion in 2000 (83%), and $49.3 billion of total government budget revenues of $ 61.3 billion in 2001 (80%).4 While gross annual Saudi petroleum export revenues varied from lows of $34.2 billion to highs of $75.3 billion during 1991-2001, Saudi Arabia has consistently