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Impact Evaluation of the Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Impact Evaluation of the Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY Cordillera Administrative Region Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY Cordillera Administrative Region IMPACT EVALUATION OF THE CERVANTES•MANKAYAN•ABATAN ROAD PROJECT Prepared by MNadunop Development Studies La Trinidad, Benguet December 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter 1. EVALUATION FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Project Overview ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 Development Context ......................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 The Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project ................................................. 2 1.2. Objectives of the Impact Study ....................................................................................... 4 1.3. Analytical Framework ...................................................................................................... 5 1.4. Methodological Approach .............................................................................................. 6 1.4.1 The Road Zone of Influence (ZOI) ........................................................................ 6 1.4.2 Summative Evaluation of Project Outputs and Transportation Outcomes ......... 7 1.4.3 Evaluation of Socio-Economic Impacts ................................................................ 7 1.4.4 Evaluation of Environmental Impacts .................................................................. 9 Chapter 2. SUMMATIVE EVALUATION OF PROJECT OUTPUTS AND FINDINGS ON TRANSPORTATION OUTCOMES ..................................................................... 13 2.1. Road Features ............................................................................................................... 13 2.2. Road Maintenance ....................................................................................................... 15 2.3. Traffic Conditions .......................................................................................................... 15 2.3.1 Average Annual Daily Traffic ............................................................................. 15 2.3.2 Vehicle Composition .......................................................................................... 16 2.3.3 Hourly Traffic Volume ........................................................................................ 18 2.4. Future Traffic Forecasts and Implications to Traffic Operations ................................... 19 2.5. Impact of Commercial Vehicle Traffic on Pavement ..................................................... 21 2.6. Relationship of the Road Project with the Surrounding Road Network ....................... 22 2.7. Highway Safety ............................................................................................................. 25 2.8. Travel Time Saved .......................................................................................................... 28 2.9. Use of Public Transportation ......................................................................................... 28 2.10. Vehicle Operating Cost .................................................................................................. 30 2.11. Summary of Findings .................................................................................................... 31 Chapter 3. FINDINGS ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS ............................................................................ 34 3.1. The Political, Historical, and Socio-economic Context of the Road .............................. 35 3.2. The Households Socio-economic Profile and Perceptions of the Importance of Road Development ................................................. 38 3.3. The Impact of Road on the Value of Time and Opportunity Cost ................................ 40 3.4. The Economic Impact of the Road with Insights from Regional Trends ....................... 43 3.4.1 Investments on Transportation ......................................................................... 43 3.4.2 Road and Changes in the Gross Regional Domestic Product ............................. 46 3.4.3 Road and Changes in Agriculture ....................................................................... 47 3.4.4 Road and Changes in Industry ............................................................................ 50 3.4.5 Road and Changes in the Service Sector ............................................................ 53 3.4.6 Road and Employment ....................................................................................... 55 3.4.7 Road and Tourism ............................................................................................. 56 3.4.8 Road Development and Migration ..................................................................... 57 3.4.9 Impact of Road Development from the Macro-Economic Perspective ............. 59 LIST OF TABLES Table No. Page 1.1 Project Description: Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project ............................................ 3 1.2 Land Area & Population: Buguias, Mankayan & Cervantes ...................................................... 6 1.3 Distribution of Respondents to the Household Survey ............................................................. 8 2.1 Road Surface Type & Improvements, Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project ................ 13 2.2. Improvement/Rehabilitation of Bridges, Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project ........... 13 2.3. Highway Features of the Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road ................................................ 13 2.4 Road Surface Condition of the Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road: 2011 ............................. 14 2.5 Conditions of Bridges: Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road: 2011 .......................................... 14 2.6. Budget Allocation for Routine Maintenance, Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road ............... 14 2.7. Level of Service of Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road for year 2015 and 2030 .................... 19 2.8. License Plate Survey Summary ................................................................................................ 22 2.9. Trip Generation & Trip Attraction ........................................................................................... 22 2.10. Travel Time Before and After Road Improvement .................................................................. 28 2.11. Use of Public Transport by Travel Route: 2017 ....................................................................... 29 2.12. Perception on the Use of Public Transport by Travel Route: 2017 ......................................... 29 2.13. Drivers’ & Operators’ Perception About Savings in Transportation Costs ............................. 30 2.14. 2017 Estimates of Annual Vehicle Operating Cost for PUJ Operators .................................... 30 2.15. 2017 Estimates of Incremental Net Income of PUJ Drivers and Operators ............................ 31 3.1. Family Size Per Locality ........................................................................................................... 38 3.2. Year the Family Members were Born ..................................................................................... 38 3.3. Educational Attainment of the Respondents and the Family Members ................................ 38 3.4. Employment Status of the Respondents and Family Members .............................................. 39 3.5. Households’ Perceptions on the importance of Road ........................................................... 39 3.6. Comparative Fare in 1960s and 2017 .................................................................................... 40 3.7. Comparative Fare in 2010 and 2017 .................................................................................... 41 3.8. Comparative Travel Time in 1960s & 2017 from Baguio to Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Loop ......................................................................................... 41 3.9. Estimated value of Opportunity Cost of Time: 1960 & 2017 .............................................. 42 3.10. Estimated value of Opportunity Cost of Time: 2010 & 2017 .............................................. 42 3.11. Summary of Estimates of Savings on Travel Fare and Opportunity Cost Recovery After the Project ......................................................................... 43 3.12. Crop Production, Gross Sales & Transport Cost Average per Farm in Abatan, Mankayan and Cervantes ..................................................... 48 3.13. 2016 Employment Data by Sector and Sex ............................................................................. 55 3.14. Predicted Changes in Classification, Logistic Regression Model ............................................. 64 3.15. Results from the Logistic Model .............................................................................................. 65 3.16. The Impact of the Abatan-Mankayan-Cervantes Road on Income, Health & Schooling ........ 65 3.17. The Impact of the Abatan-Mankayan-Cervantes (in unstandardized coefficients) ................ 67 3.18. The Difference in Difference (DID) and the Double Difference in Difference (DDID) ............. 69 4.1. Environmental Impact Timeline, Cervantes-Mankayan-Abatan Road Project ....................... 76 4.2. Land Use & Spatial
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