DOWNTOWN ORILLIA RETAIL MIX ANALYSIS, ORILLIA, ONTARIO PREPARED FOR THE CITY OF ORILLIA & THE DOWNTOWN ORILLIA MANAGEMENT BOARD NOVEMBER 25, 2016 Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario SOURCE: Downtown Orillia Management Board. Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario November 25, 2016 Laura Thompson Manager of Real Estate & Commercial Development City of Orillia 50 Andrew Street South, Suite 300 Orillia, Ontario, L3V 7T5 Dear Laura: RE: Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario urbanMetrics inc. (‘urbanMetrics’) is pleased to submit the Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, which was undertaken on behalf of the City of Orillia Economic Development Department and the Downtown Orillia Management Board (‘DOMB’). This study has been undertaken to analyze the existing commercial structure and diversity of store types in Downtown Orillia. This study was also undertaken to identify opportunities for business attraction and to provide the City and the DOMB with a comprehensive dataset to monitor future progress and help guide economic development initiatives. This report identifies specific commercial categories that are under-represented in the downtown area and provides examples of potential tenants within these categories that should be targeted for future marketing. This report also provides a series of key performance indicators to help the City and the DOMB monitor future changes with respect to changes in the downtown commercial market. Input from local residents has been a crucial element of this analysis and the final recommendations in this report reflect the findings of urbanMetrics’ community-driven approach to evaluating the retail mix in Downtown Orillia. We appreciate the opportunity to conduct this assignment on your behalf and we look forward to discussing the results of our report with you. Yours truly, urbanMetrics inc. Peter Thoma, MCIP, RPP, PLE Mike Johnson Partner Project Manager [email protected] [email protected] Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Study Area 2 1.3 Objectives 4 1.4 Approach 4 2 Downtown Orillia Trade Area Profile 5 2.1 Trade Area Delineation 5 2.2 Demographics 8 3 Community Engagement Overview 10 3.1 Key Informant Interviews 10 3.2 Public Survey 11 3.3 Business Survey 12 3.4 Facebook Forum 13 3.5 Public Workshop 13 3.6 Summary of Key Findings from Community Engagement 14 3.6.1 Economic Changes During the Past 5 Years 14 3.6.2 Favourite Aspects of Downtown Orillia 15 3.6.3 Reasons for Visiting 16 3.6.4 Primary Drawbacks 17 3.6.5 Existing Gaps 18 3.6.6 Suggested Improvements 19 4 Commercial Structure Analysis 20 4.1 Downtown Orillia Inventory 20 4.2 Comparison To Other Downtowns 25 4.3 Downtown Situational Assessment 28 4.4 Market Gaps 29 4.5 Identification of Potential Targets 31 5 Key Performance Indicators 33 6 Recommendations 34 Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario Appendix A – Official Plan Background 36 Appendix B – Public Survey Results 3753 Appendix C – Business Survey Results 3872 Appendix D – Facebook Forum Comments 3990 Appendix E – Public Workshop Results 11140 Appendix F – Definitions & NAICS Codes 15941 Appendix G – Retail Chains Operating in Canada 16542 Appendix H – Retail Chains Under 5,000 Square Feet Operating in Canada 20843 Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis Study Area ........................................................... 3 Figure 1-2: Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis Approach .............................................................. 4 Figure 2-1: Customer Origins urbanMetrics 2013 & 2016 Licence Plate Surveys ............................. 6 Figure 2-2: Trade Area Map .............................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2-3: Trade Area Demographic Characteristics ....................................................................... 8 Figure 3-1: Summary Public Survey Responses ............................................................................. 11 Figure 3-2: Survey Participation ...................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3-3: Summary Business Owner Survey Responses ............................................................ 12 Figure 3-4: Public Workshop Attendees .......................................................................................... 14 Figure 3-5: PUBLIC SURVEY – Economic Changes during the Past 5 Years ................................ 14 Figure 3-6: PUBLIC SURVEY – Favourite Aspects of the Downtown Shopping Experience .......... 15 Figure 3-7: PUBLIC SURVEY – Primary Reasons for Visiting Downtown Orillia ............................ 16 Figure 3-8: PUBLIC SURVEY – Current Major Drawbacks of Downtown Orillia ............................. 17 Figure 3-9: FACEBOOK FORUM – What Additions Residents Want in Downtown Orillia .............. 18 Figure 3-10: PUBLIC SURVEY – Top Suggested Improvements for Downtown Orillia .................. 19 Figure 4-1: Geographic Distribution of Commercial Space in Downtown Orillia .............................. 21 Figure 4-2: Summary of Retail and Service Commercial Space in Downtown Orillia ...................... 23 Figure 4-3: Examples of Large Vacant Commercial Units in Downtown Orillia ............................... 24 Figure 4-4: Vacancy in Downtown Orillia by Area ........................................................................... 24 Figure 4-5: Distribution of Commercial Space in Downtown Orillia Inventory Compared to Other Downtown Areas ............................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4-6: Downtown Orillia Compared to Downtown Areas in Other Municipalities – Total Commercial Space .......................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 4-7: Downtown Orillia Compared to Downtown Areas in Other Municipalities – Vacant Commercial Space .......................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 4-8: Downtown Orillia Inventory Compared to Other Downtown Inventories ....................... 27 Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario Executive Summary Introduction The Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis has been undertaken by urbanMetrics inc. on behalf of the City of Orillia Economic Development Department and the Downtown Orillia Management Board (‘DOMB’) to measure and evaluate the existing retail mix in Downtown Orillia. This study has been developed through outreach with the business community and the public at large. This study builds on recent initiatives that have been led by the City and the DOMB, including the Downtown Tomorrow Plan1 and the Downtown Tomorrow Community Improvement Plan2. The purpose of the Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis is to provide strategic insights and action items that will help guide the City and the DOMB in future business attraction and retention initiatives. This study includes: Detailed commercial inventory for the entire downtown area; Identification of specific commercial segments that are either absent or under-represented in the downtown area and should be targeted for future marketing; and A series of key performance indicators to help the City and the DOMB monitor future progress. Study Area The Study Area for the Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis is consistent with the boundaries of the Downtown Area as defined in the Downtown Tomorrow Plan. These boundaries are virtually identical to the downtown area boundaries as defined in Schedule A and Schedule B of the City of Orillia Official Plan (‘Official Plan’). The Study Area is comprised of the following: Downtown Orillia Business Improvement Area (‘BIA’); Primary Focus Area; and Project Area. SOURCE: City of Orillia Public Works Department (July 5, 2016). 1 Downtown Tomorrow Plan refers to the study entitled Downtown Tomorrow, Linking Orillia’s Core to the Water, which was adopted by City of Orillia Council on June 3, 2013. Strategic Initiative # 14 calls for the completion of a detailed inventory to understand the existing retail composition of the downtown area and provide guidance with respect to the attraction of new specialty retailers and services going forward. 2 The Downtown Tomorrow Community Improvement Plan project began in June 2015 and was adopted by Council on June 27, 2016. Implementation of grant programs will begin in January 2017. i Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, Orillia, Ontario Downtown Trade Area To effectively identify opportunities for business attraction and economic development in Downtown Orillia it is important to understand the customers that provide support for downtown businesses. The four primary markets for retailers and service commercial establishments operating in the downtown area include: City Population; Tourists/Seasonal Residents; and Regional Population; Downtown Workforce. Based on current and historic customer origin data, approximately 80% of the customers for businesses in the downtown area are derived from within the City of Orillia. Community Engagement From the outset of the Downtown Orillia Retail Mix Analysis, direct community engagement has been an integral component of our analysis. During July,