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2017 Mid-Year Office Market Report Metro Vancouver, BC metro Vancouver Suburban leasing tightens regional vacancy as vacancy & absorption trends next Downtown development cycle set to launch Vacancy Rate 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% obust suburban demand in the Metro occupancies due to a reduced deal flow noted in RVancouver office market, particularly in the the second half of 2016. This temporary situation 2017F 209,694 8.2% Vancouver-Broadway and Surrey submarkets, will likely conclude by year-end as elevated deal continues to drive a decline in overall vacan- flow in the first half of 2017 will fuel tenant occu- cy with mostly positive absorption recorded pancies downtown in the second half of 2017, Mid-2017 324,320 9.1% throughout the region in the first half of 2017. Of strengthening downtown absorption. Approx- the four Metro Vancouver submarkets that regis- imately 2.2 msf of office space was absorbed in tered negative absorption in the first six months Metro Vancouver in the 24-month period prior 2016 856,868 9.7% of 2017 – Burnaby, Richmond, New Westminster to 2017. and the North Shore – three of the four are Leasing activity in Yaletown, Vancouver-Broad- anticipated to swing to positive absorption and 10% 1,334,604 way and Surrey was responsible for virtually all 2015 contribute to a further decline in regional vacan- absorption recorded regionally in the first half cy by year-end 2017. of 2017. For the urban submarket of Yaletown, 2014 92,870 9.4% Vacancy in Metro Vancouver dropped to 9.1% at which recorded its most first-half absorption mid-year 2017 – the lowest since year-end 2013 since mid-year 2010, vacancy dropped steeply – from 10.4% at mid-year 2016. Positive first-half to 3.9% from 6.8% just six months earlier. The 2013 -158,905 7.8% 2017 absorption of 324,320 sf represented a same can be said for the suburban Vancou- 48% decline from first-half 2016 absorption, ver-Broadway market, which registered the -400, 0 40 80 1, 1, 0, 0, 20 60 000 000 0, 0, but marked the third year in a row that positive most first-half absorption on record and 00 000 000 0 absorption was recorded regionally in the first six where vacancy declined to 7.5% from 10.7% Absorption Rate (sf) months of the year. The year-over-year decline at year-end 2016. Both submarkets, along with Vacancy Absorption was largely the result of minimal absorption Downtown, are expected to see vacancy tight- recorded in Downtown Vancouver in the first six en further by year-end 2017, with absorption months of 2017 as a result of buildings being remaining healthy. 12-month projection based on 10-year average absorption and known net absorption in new inventory removed from inventory, relocations and fewer continued on back page METRO VANCOUVER OFFICE VACANCY SUMMARY (MID-YEAR 2017) INVENTORY HEAD LEASE SUBLEASE TOTAL VACANCY 6-MONTH DISTRICT (SF) VACANCY (SF) VACANCY (SF) VACANCY (SF) RATE (%) ABSORPTION (SF) Downtown 22,684,775 1,385,708 147,023 1,532,731 6.8% 31,352 Yaletown 2,029,244 74,442 4,777 79,219 3.9% 59,647 Vancouver-Broadway 6,477,349 459,738 23,233 482,971 7.5% 276,474 Burnaby 9,256,790 938,255 297,404 1,235,659 13.3% -81,720 Richmond 4,215,800 373,482 97,083 470,565 11.2% -20,227 Surrey 2,906,607 373,140 5,102 378,242 13% 92,936 New Westminster 1,688,572 292,956 2,358 295,314 17.5% -7,860 North Shore 1,372,098 121,451 13,162 134,613 9.8% -26,282 TOTAL 50,631,235 4,019,172 590,142 4,609,314 9.1% 324,320 Vacancy rate June 30, 2017 9.1% Absorption (demand) Vacancy (supply) Rental Rates Vacancy rate December 31, 2016 9.7% Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com Downtown Downtown vacancy lowest since mid-year 2014 Vacancy trends Oxford Properties is Vacancy slipped to 6.8% at mid-year 2017 scheduled – the lowest vacancy rate recorded to deliver downtown since 2014 – from 7.8% 12 401 West months earlier. Class A vacancy declined Georgia in to 8.4% at mid-year 2017 from 10.5% 12 late 2019. months earlier. Class C vacancy declined by approximately 71,000 sf (or 25%) in that same 12-month period. Class AAA vacancy remained largely unchanged during the past 12 months with only a modest increase to 5% from 4.8%. The removal of 1166 West Pender (150,943 sf) than two-thirds of total sublease vacancy) absorption trends from class B inventory due to the building and marked a significant increase from 12 Absorption of 31,352 sf was the least owner considering a medium- to months earlier. Sublease vacancy amount of first-half positive absorption long-term renovation or redevelopment increased slightly in class AAA and A of the property impacted vacancy. A new properties, while it declined slightly in recorded downtown since Avison office building, FiveTen Seymour, was class C buildings. Overall vacancy has Young started tracking the market added to class A inventory. Downtown continued to decline steadily after in1996. However, absorption in the office sublease vacancy represented 9.6% peaking at 9.8% at mid-year 2015. The first half was impacted significantly by of overall vacancy at mid-year 2017, up market remains reasonably balanced the departure of Canada Revenue significantly from 3.6% at mid-year 2016, although current trends are forecast to Agency to the Vancouver-Broadway but still below historic norms and not a begin to favour landlords. There are very submarket and the subsequent removal significant force in the market. The rise in few large-block opportunities currently of its former office building at 1166 sublease vacancy was primarily located in available. Occupancies during the next 12 West Pender Street from inventory class B premises (which represented more months, including Sophos, QuadReal (which was registered as negative Property Group, WeWork and WSP absorption). Postmedia’s relocation recent lease deals - Mid-Year 2017 (>10,000 sf) Global, will result in vacancy tightening from 200 Granville Street (backfilled by further, particularly in class AAA and A the College of Registered Nurses of tenant BUILDING SF buildings. Strong deal velocity, including a BC) to Broadway Tech Centre also WeWork Bentall 3 77,000 number of new Downtown leases signed contributed to negative absorption. Lawson Lundell LLP (renewal) Cathedral Place 59,000 in the first half of 2017 by new and existing However, these departures did not WSP Global Inc. Robson Court 53,000 tenants to the downtown market, signal a completely offset occupancies in BC Artscape Society 268 Keefer Street 49,000 further decline in vacancy and a boost in the first half, which included Miller Scanline VFX 580 Granville Street 41,700 Downtown absorption is likely to occur in Thomson LLP at 725 Granville Street, the second half of 2017. Bench Accounting in the podium at College of Registered Nurses of BC 200 Granville Street 41,680 Anthem Properties Group Ltd. Bentall 4 33,400 Vacancy with Space Availability Factor (SAF) and Absorption Smythe LLP The Exchange 28,000 14.0% 1,101,041 1,200,000 Spaces Ormidale Block 23,600 12.0% 1,000,000 Hyperwallet Systems Inc. The Exchange 22,500 2.8% 3.8% 800,000 Watson Goepel LLP (renewal) 1075 West Georgia Street 19,800 F 10.0% e A 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% t S 9.3% 600,000 a / Kuehne + Nagel Inc. 900 Howe Street 16,930 3.4% R e 8.0% n t o a Koffman Kalef LLP (renewal) HSBC Building 16,800 7.5% 400,000 i R 387,909 t 6.8% p y 6.0% 7.2% 6.8% r Sony Pictures Imageworks TD Tower 16,400 c 200,000 o n 5.7% s a b Altus Group Royal Centre 14,700 c 4.0% A a 0 V 61,216 Archiact (sublease) Royal Centre 14,690 31,352 2.0% -270,560 -200,000 Charlwood Pacific Group (renewal) 1199 West Pender Street 14,400 - -304,835 0.0% -400,000 BrainStation 717 West Pender Street 12,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mid-2017 2017F Bazinga Technologies Inc. 1155 West Pender Street 11,600 Vacancy Absorption SAF* Space Availability Factor Agreement Express Inc. 625 Howe Street 10,800 12-month projection based on 10-year average absorption and known net absorption in new inventory, HUB International Vancouver TD Tower 10,780 and 10-year average SAF. 2 Partnership. Performance Next wave of development preparing to kick off in 2017 Downtown Telus Garden and Adler University at with Oxford Properties’ 401 West vacancy in The Exchange may temporarily 510 Seymour Street, among others. Only Georgia leading the pack. Others will offset absorption and boost availability at class A buildings registered positive follow in 2020/21. year-end 2017, but overall, the tightening absorption in the first half of 2017. market forecast trend is forecasted to continue into 2018/19. Developers are expected to space availability factor Rates remained stable in the first half of respond to current and projected market 2017, but expect upward pressure on First-half The space availability factor, or SAF, fundamentals with three or more towers rents by year-end 2017, particularly at positive refers to head lease or sublease space constructed on a speculative basis and that is being marketed but is not the higher end of the market.
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